Playoffs for 10/13
DMZ · October 13, 2006 at 2:00 pm · Filed Under General baseball
I’d rather be at some sort of awesome pizza feed with USSM readers, frankly, but — HEY! What a wacky coincidence!
Oakland @ Detroit, now
St. Louis @ NYM, 5:05
The odds of appearing in the World Series 1 or more times during any set of 5 runs is roughly 79.3%. So 21.7% of the time, the team wouldn’t make it even once.
And the 27% figure you started with comes from assuming a team that beats playoff teams 60% of the time. I don’t know how many teams have been that good, but I’m guessing not many.
And the 27% figure you started with comes from assuming a team that beats playoff teams 60% of the time. I don’t know how many teams have been that good, but I’m guessing not many.
Right, just started writing semi-in-response to #33. 🙂
I’d venture to say you’re right.
#49– http://www.cmib.co.uk/ 🙂
So the question remains: Have the A’s been MORE unlucky than the laws of probability say they should be?
In-A-Del-Ga-Do-Da-Vida, baby!
TERRIBLE! HORRIBLE! WHAT WAS HE THINKING?!?
Score that “E-3.”
Carpenter is one of the worst hitting pitchers in all of baseball… Look for the Fairly’s Favorite, “The Butcher Boy.”
So the question remains: Have the A’s been MORE unlucky than the laws of probability say they should be?
If you want to call it luck. Whatever it may be, with all teams being “equal” five shots in the postseason should give the team a 76% chance of making it at least once. They’re on the 24% end.
Dismember the Maine!
In all fairness, Carpenter was called out on a low pitch.
Edmonds > Pujols > God.
There’s a flowchart in the lobby.
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*Just kidding, don’t smite me.
Mets pitching is why they are not going to win the WS. If Pedro was fit, then they might have stood a chance, but the Tigers will be too strong for them.
That, plus the Tigers are more likable. Or would be if they had David Wright, too.
Mets pitching is why they are not going to win the WS. If Pedro was fit, then they might have stood a chance, but the Tigers will be too strong for them.
Hell, they only have the advantage in this series in the Weaver/Glavine games. They’re running Oliver Perez, who at the current moment is well on his way to etching his name in hisotry alongside Steve blass and Rick Ankiel, in game 4. They have to win today or tomorrow or else they’re screwed.
Yeah, but if they win tonight the series is over — up 2-0 with Carpenter already having pitched once? I also think they have an advantage in the game right now, given they have a better bullpen than the Cards.
Yeah, but if they win tonight the series is over.
I really disagree with that. Even if the Cards lose tonight they’re far from finished. They’re going home, Steve Traschel scares nobody, and I can’t think of a worse playoff option, ever, than Perez.
Basically, if the Cards won’t be in Big Trouble unless they go down 3-0. Considering the back of their rotation, if the Mets go down 2-1 they’ll be in a world of hurt.
Did Joe Buck really just compare Duncan to Ryan Howard? I’m the biggest Cardinals homer I know, and I know that comparison is just silly.
It’s going to be super important for the either team to knock out the strater soon, as the long relief corps will surely be tested on Monday… or sooner as none of the starters tomorrow or Sunday are strong bets to go 7.
Man, Pujols just can’t get it going, can he?
Edmonds, almost duplicated that last at bat. Dang!
Delgado! Instead of two Carloses homering, one Carlos homers twice.
In-A-Delgado-Da-Vida-Deux!
Reyes finally gets going this game…
Does Reyes still get mad hate from sabe-heads because he doesn’t walk?
SPIEZIO!!!
I just checked on Sandfrog’s contract. I though thta this was the last year that the M’s have to pay him, but wait, there’s an option for 2007 at 3.25 million with a 0.250 million buyout.
Who pays each of those? I’d think that the Cards would pay the 3.25 if they exercised the option, but the M’s would pay the 250K if they don’t.
Go Cards!
Scrappy 12-pitch groundout by Eckstein, swinging at ball four a foot outside. He’s showing up WFB, and in all the glamour of the playoffs, too.
They’re going home, Steve Traschel scares nobody, and I can’t think of a worse playoff option, ever, than Perez.
Two pitchers come to mind. Joe Mays started Game 1 of the 2003 ALCS (miraculously getting the win that day) coming off of a season where he posted a 5.38 ERA and a 5.16 FIP. If you buy that Rick Peterson may have helped Perez out some and look at his New York numbers, his ERA is brutal (at 6.38) but his FIP is at just 5.10 and his xFIP 4.65, so that suggests he might not be that bad, and with his K-rate, he’s at least showing that he can miss bats.
The other guy that comes to mind didn’t actually pitch in the postseason, but was certainly an option. Had the Twins forced a Game 4 in the ALDS, Carlos Silva was going to take the hill. Silva had a 5.81 FIP (worst amongst qualified AL starters) and a not much better 5.09 xFIP. These days, he basically throws nothing but batting practice fastballs and even meatier off-speed pitches. So to the extent that he was indeed an option, I’d say he’s worse than Perez.
That said, I sure wouldn’t want to be pinning my hopes on Oliver Perez.
Does Reyes still get mad hate from sabe-heads because he doesn’t walk?
Reyes’ 75th percentile PECOTA forecast was something like .303/.343/.460, and he actually hit .300/.354/.487. To me, he seems like the sort of guy who won’t peak much higher than what he is now, but that he can probably repeat this year a few more times. So I guess I’m saying that I’m a “sabe-head” and I certainly can’t find any mad-hate for him. And while recognizing that speed might be overvalued, I enjoy watching speedy guys play the game.
I could be remembering incorrectly, but I think a lot of the displeasure surrounding Reyes wasn’t that he didn’t have promise, but that he was miscast as a leadoff hitter. I guess I would argue that was true when he was posting a .300 OBP.
I was hoping Randolph would Pull A Grover and hold out Wagner for a save situation in extra innings at home, but no…
#79
…Unless he turns out to be a fast Miguel Tejada. I was skeptical Tejada’s ability to hit .300 on a regular basis, but here we are…
Re #80
Good call, too bad… Taguchi for Duncan? *sigh*
Taguchi… OMG. I’m sorry TLR, forgive me!
Oh. My. God.
Billy Wagner is the most unhittable relief pitcher in the NL, and Little So Taguchi just took him yard.
Wow.
The Spiez is on FIRE!
Your NLCS–it’s Spaz-tastic!
…Unless he turns out to be a fast Miguel Tejada. I was skeptical Tejada’s ability to hit .300 on a regular basis, but here we are…
That’s an interesting comp that I wouldn’t have thought of. I don’t remember much about Tejada when he was coming up, but check out their SO and BB numbers in their age 23 season:
94 K, 57 BB, 593 AB — Tejada, ’99
81 K, 53 BB, 647 AB — Reyes, ’06
That’s pretty close, all things considered. It took Tejada ’til age 26 before he was even very close to .300, so I guess I can see why you would’ve been skeptical.
#78: Two pitchers come to mind. Joe Mays started Game 1 of the 2003 ALCS (miraculously getting the win that day) coming off of a season where he posted a 5.38 ERA and a 5.16 FIP.
Sometimes memory fails, but I’m pretty sure I have this right: Tim Wakefield started and won ALCS 2003 Game 1 against the NY Yankees.
Sometimes memory fails, but I’m pretty sure I have this right: Tim Wakefield started and won ALCS 2003 Game 1 against the NY Yankees.
I meant 2002. Sometimes memory fails–this time it was my memory.
#7: God I hope not…with Bud Selig (BS) at the helm:
game 1: Mexico City
game 2: Tokyo
game 3: Caracus
game 4: Beijing
game 5 (if needed):Moscow
game 6 (if needed):Paris
game 7 (if needed):Sydney
In honor of Scott Spiezo’s continuing clutchness in the playoffs, here is a link that should warm all your hearts.