Monday’s signings, rumors
DMZ · November 20, 2006 at 8:05 am · Filed Under General baseball
Catalanotto signs with Rangers for 3y, $13m
Garciaparra reups with Dodgers for 2y
Added by Jason: Ryan Howard wins NL MVP
Soooo… hitters, apx 2006 win value from offense, new contract annual value
Henry Blanco, 0, $2.6m
Sean Casey, -1, $4m
Alex Cora, -1, $2m
Mark DeRosa, 2, $4.3m
Jim Edmonds, 2, $9.5m
Alex Gonzalez, 0, $4.6m
Wes Helms, 2, $2.7m
Aramis Ramirez, 4, $15m
Alfonso Soriano, 6, $17m
Scott Spiezio, 2, $2.3m
Frank Thomas, 4, $9m
By the way, here’s the contracts of Frank Thomas. The 2006 base salary of $500k was so low I felt obligated to include the incentives he made, but otherwise this is straight:
What’s going to happen to James Loney now that Nomar has a 2 year deal? Do you think we could trade for him, and what do you think of him? Big young lefty power bat always sounds good to me.
Derek – does their offensive value measure just hitting, or hitting + baserunning?
I can’t believe the Dodgers would trade Loney except in a deal they found really advantageous. I mean, Nomar can probably still play around the infield on occasion if they need him to right? So having a bat like Loney off the bench plus spot starts for Nomar, plus maybe some spot starts at first when Nomar is spelling someone at 3rd or 2nd…
Pretty handy, and in two years (or before if Nomar declines rapidly) they have their cheap, effective 1B option all locked up. I don’t see the situation as a problem for them at all. That’s not to say they wouldn’t move him if they thought they really had something to acquire, but I don’t think he just became particularly expendable or anything.
I can’t imagine they’d risk Nomar’s notoriously fragile body by moving him around the infield.
I could be wrong, but aren’t all of his injuries acquired from defense? I seem to recall him injuring at least a hammy running down a grounder.
re: nomar’s injuries. i recall he had a broken wrist from an HPB and his achilles tear was leaving the batters box I think.
It’s pretty amazing that Alex Gonzalez is even worth 0 win shares and 3 years, $14 million. He’ll be 30 at the start of next season and after 3609 MLB at bats, he’s hit .246/.292/.392. He’s decent enough with the glove, still, how hard would it be to replace his production on both sides of the field?
I’m a bit surprised Catalanotto is that cheap. He put up a .287 EqA over the past two years (821 AB). And he’s been healthy.
I really wanted the M’s to get Catalanotto this year instead of… well, I guess that remains to be seen.
or Delucci…
Scott Spiezio is apparently the bargain of the FA class so far. Well, that tells ME all I need to know.
I think Nomar ripped his groin from the bone getting out of the batters box.
Hmmmm. That’s all I gotta say about THAT! Hmmm…
it was a “left groin avulsion of the adductor longus muscle” … “He was carried off the field after grounding into a double play and collapsing just in front of the batter’s box in the third inning.”
Cat came in 4th on my list of LHB to replace Broussard. Bonds, Drew, and Dellucci are still on the market. Every other LHB can’t really be considered an upgrade. At least as far as the free agent class is concerned.
Huff and Nixon are interesting, but I’m not sure I can say they’re better than Broussard. Maybe they’re worth pursuing if it upgrades the LF defense.
Matthews might be an improvement, but he’s going to be paid to play CF and his career year puts me off.
Ray Durham is another wild card name I could see the M’s considering for LF if he’s still hanging around late in December. If he’ll take a one-year deal, he could be a good filler until Jones is ready.
Pujols got robbed.
Huff and Nixon are better hitters than Broussard (similar power and platoon splits, but better OBP, especially Nixon), but the difference might not be enough to justify the bigger contract in terms of years and salary. Broussard would require only a one-year commitment at somewhere around $4 million.
it was a “left groin avulsion of the adductor longus muscle†… “He was carried off the field after grounding into a double play and collapsing just in front of the batter’s box in the third inning.â€
I stand corrected. But this sounds absolutely horrible. Groin injuries are disgusting.
Not quite as bad as that intrascrotal hematoma Michael Barrett sufferd last year.
But almost.
Damn.
“avulsion” is doctor-speak for “tearing (or avulsing) a tendon or ligament off of the bone”. So, yah, he ripped his groin from the bone. Like the old Cheers episode, “a groiinnn injury”
Anybody that thinks Howard was the MVP and not Pujols is crazed. Howard doesn’t play a more premium defensive position and blatantly had a worse hitting year. Some voters are mesmerized by HR totals; I suspect one could straightforwardly get them to bark like dogs by invoking Dave Kingman’s name.
Methinks Ryan Howard’s HR total “Avulsed” the MVP award from Pujols
Pujols got robbed.
Cards without Pujols, not world series winners.
Phils without Howard, still would have missed the playoffs.
Pujols or Howard, for 2006, is po-tay-to po-tah-to. The difference between them was something like a couple of runs. Pujols was better on a per at-bat basis, but Howard played 15 more games.
This isn’t one to kvetch over. It’s a pick-em.
But what about defense? I would think that Pujols’ defense pushes his advantage over Howard from a few runs to a win or two.
Bingo.
It’s not anywhere near two wins. It might be one win.
I’d have voted for Pujols, but one’s a 10 win guy, the other’s a 9 win guy. It’s not a huge difference.
Are any of you guys interested in Mark Mulder? Color me intrigued, its an opportunity to take a risk that could outperform his contract size.
I’d have voted for Pujols, but one’s a 10 win guy, the other’s a 9 win guy. It’s not a huge difference.
I agree it’s not a huge difference, but it seems like a clear difference. We can measure the offense very accurately, and the defense basically breaks the tie.
I’m not going to lose any sleep over it or anything, and it’s not anything like what happened with Colon over Santana for Cy last year, but I do think it’s clear that Pujols was more valuable than Howard.
Are any of you guys interested in Mark Mulder? Color me intrigued, its an opportunity to take a risk that could outperform his contract size.
This depends on what his contract is. At $1 million, a year…sure. At anything remotely approaching what he’s going to be offered in the real world, heck no!
Here’s an interesting tidbit on Soriano:
4th in MLB in HRs yet…
33rd in MLB in VORP.
So… for those of you who can’t get past the HRs, there’s your problem. His “value” per HR is lower than anyone this side of Tony Batista.
Goodbye TJ Bohn…ESPN.com Transaction Page
Don’t let the the door trap your long blond flowing mane on the way out.
I don’t care about TJ Bohn but I’m intrigued by the fact that he was on waivers; I assume they put him on waivers to clear room on the 40, but for whom? Does this suggest an imminent personnel move of some kind? The M’s website lists 38 guys on the 40, not including Bohn.
Or am I reading too much into this.
By the way, I also saw on the M’s site that they bought out Eduardo Perez’ contract (which might account for the other vacant spot on the 40); they say they’re still interested in talking to him about next year.
My guess is we purchase Valbuena (IIRC he was eligible last year), and then do something else (maybe re-sign Perez). What I don’t understand is why Bohn was deemed less valuable than one of our 10000000000000000000000s of identical fungible pitchers (Jorge Campillo). We hav eno outfield depth, at all. Bohn wasn’t good, but he was something.
No outfield depth at all? Jeremy Reed’s currently the 4th of, and Adam Jones will be starting the year in AAA. Both can play all 3 positions and hit enough to fill in if necessary right now, and both are potential quality major league hitters.
The team’s not exactly bursting with major league ready outfielders, but that’s some decent OF depth.
The Ms probably considered Bohn expendable because they want to give Balentien and Wilson regular PT in triple-A next year.
true.
Rumor has it that Reed might not be a Mariner much longer…
Rumor has it that Reed might not be a Mariner much longer…
Please be a Jason Jennings deal.
Rumor has it that Reed might not be a Mariner much longer…
RRrrreeeeeallly. And that surprises who?
That wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Like how much not longer? Like a couple hours longer? Or a couple weeks longer?
It’s not a Jennings deal. And it could go down tonight or tomorrow.
Dave, you’re a tease
sweeeeeet. I hope. I really hope. He’s our most useful trading chip that we would realistically part with (assuming Soriano stays)
juan pierre is gonna sign with the dogers for 9 million a season for 5 years.
How about Juan Pierre’s contract? Sheesh. Reed is as good if not better than Pierre.
In this market, we couldn’t realistically deal a certain 6’8″ 1st baseman?
In terms of return, I mean. Yes, we could realisitcally deal him, but we ain’t getting much.
Me thinks all the albatross-contract preconceptions that we entered the offseason with have hereby been rendered obsolete.
Legacy contracts like Sexson’s could almost be seen as a bargain on the trade market…
Why wouldn’t we get much? If marginal players are getting fat contracts across the board, it tells me that Sexson’s value is probably higher than we all think.
No need to refuse to sell because we know his true worth.
It’s not a Jennings deal.
Good. From where I sit, Jennings looks like a pretty marginal pitcher once he has to face DH’s instead of pitchers, he’d only be under control for three years, and his shiny ERA last year probably means someone is going to overpay for him.
The deadline for adding minor leaguers to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft is imminent, so Bohn is probably not the only move coming. But with the new CBA giving teams an extra year before prospects are eligible for the Rule 5 draft, there really are no newly eligible players the M’s have to protect (just players they did not protect last year whose stock has improved — Garciaparra? Wilson?).
The organization has the least amount of depth in starting pitching, especially at the upper levels. If Campillo is back to where he was pre-injury, he is a candidate as the 6th starter. No-hit fifth outfielders like Bohn are more fungible.
Actually, Jennings is a pretty solid middle of the rotation guy, and he’s only under contract for one more year.
Dave – you don’t seem to want to tell us much about the potential Reed deal, but could you at least tell us if you are pleased with this potential deal?
Sorry – it’s part of the deal when you get info like this on deals that aren’t done.
And no, I don’t particularly love the deal. It has its pros and cons, but I don’t think I’d make this swap. We’ll see.
As long as we’re getting at least a decent aaa level starter, and then maybe another AAAA filler reliever, I’m happy.
And if he’s going to the Marlins for Lindstrom, Owens, or Gregg, I’ll be pissed.
The Loney comments above (#3 in particular) are well taken but now that the Dodgers have apparently brought in Juan Pierre (in addition to Nomar) its obvious they have grave concerns about playing the guys coming out of their abundant farm system. Is this an opportunity? Is there any chance that the M’s are adept enough to exploit it?
Actually, Jennings is a pretty solid middle of the rotation guy, and he’s only under contract for one more year.
Ack. I meant to say only one more year. (I was trying to say it as a negative thing. Three more years would certainly make Jennings more attractive to me.) Over the last three years, Jennings has about a 6:4 K/9:BB/9 ratio. The difference between the AL and NL has been overstated, but I think that ratio’s going to get worse if he has to face DH’s instead of pitchers, even after adjusting for the Coors factor. He’s got a pretty decent groundball rate, but I’m not a big believer in pitchers who walk that many hitters. For one year of him, I certainly wouldn’t give up very much.
The Pierre contract is brutal, almost as bad as Soriano’s…
Most sinkerballers have poor walk rates due to their movement. If you’re avoiding anyone with a walkrate north of 3.00, you’re going to have a flyball staff.
The Pierre contract is brutal, almost as bad as Soriano’s…
It’s worse.
His “value†per HR is lower than anyone this side of Tony Batista.
And Batista was pretty good with the glove, too.
As soon as you’re being compared to Tony Batista, you have big problems.
Cards without Pujols, not world series winners.
Phils without Howard, still would have missed the playoffs.
Right, and we should totally hold those guys responsible for the performance of the rest of the team…
Dave, can you answer this:
You’ve claimed Reed still has value, so that’s in your opinion. Does the trade match the value you perceive him to have?
64
You’re right, now that I’ve thought it through a little, I completely take that back.
Pierre sucks, Jeremy Reed is a better player. The Dodgers will likely get nothing back on their investment.
Soriano will probably give the Cubs a good year or three.
As long as we’re getting at least a decent aaa level starter, and then maybe another AAAA filler reliever, I’m happy.
Uh, why? The Mariners have plenty of AAA starters (Baek and Woods, for instance), and AAAA relievers. Reed still might turn into a useful player, and he’s a pretty clear example of buy high/sell low if the haul for Freddy Garcia being traded in 2004 turns into Rich Dorman and Aaron Looper in November 2006.
But then again, it would be true to form, because the M’s have had a particular knack for not having things work out in trades- in some cases (Garcia, Winn), getting unlucky on the return, in some other cases (Guillen) making a poor decision based on “intangibles”. Reed for uninteresting Rainier roster fodder would just be par for the course.
You’ve claimed Reed still has value, so that’s in your opinion. Does the trade match the value you perceive him to have?
Ehh, maybe. The opinions on the guys the M’s might be getting back varies, depending on who you talk to.
Wow, the Pierre and Soriano signings are truly insane. We were rightly upset when we signed Sexson, but if Bavasi signed Pierre I suspect we would make good on our threats to start protesting outside Safeco.
Seems like the best strategy in this environment is to trade if you can. Otherwise, keep your powder dry and look to pick up contracts at the deadline.
By AAA Starter, I mean a real prospect. in my mind Woods and Baek are AAAA starters
LaHair, Garciaparra, Wilson, and Rowland-Smith have been added. RRS is a bit of a suprise.
Chick was outrighted to Tacoma and Campillo was DFA’d. Campillo can refuse an outright assignment and become a free agent if he goes unclaimed on waivers. Chances are he’ll re-up with Seattle. I kind of suspect his call-up in September was a good-faith gesture to keep him around.
The Loney comments above (#3 in particular) are well taken but now that the Dodgers have apparently brought in Juan Pierre (in addition to Nomar) its obvious they have grave concerns about playing the guys coming out of their abundant farm system. Is this an opportunity? Is there any chance that the M’s are adept enough to exploit it?
The Dodgers don’t believe Kemp can play CF at the major league level nor are they crazy about Ethier there. Signing Pierre is more a reflection of the positions of their prospects not their skills. But they believe in Kemp and it looks like RF is open. They like Loney. Maybe they think he can play RF too.
Chick outrighted? Heh. I would have thought that a Livingston was before him in line to be dumped.
That said, both are better to have on the roster than Little Garciaparra. Screw that.
Does the pending Reed trade include the Mariners getting players that will be a part of the Opening Day roster? Or are we looking at prospects? or “prospects”?
There goes my hopes that Reed was a part of a Manny Ramirez deal this offseason.
Alou to the Mets; one year 8.5 mil.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/2010AP_BBN_Mets_Alou.html
Are any of the guys we are getting for Reed MLB ready?
The Mets should go after Jesse Orosco.
Pinto just released his PMR ratings for first basemen. Our designated hitter Ben Broussard ranks as the 9th best first baseman. Much, much lower on the list is Richie. I didn’t get to see many Indians games this year, and I heard that Broussard isn’t too great with the glove, but is really that much better than Richie?
Oh, and the PMR ratings are also out for CFs. Ichiro number one, Reed at the very bottom. Yikes.
Ehh, maybe. The opinions on the guys the M’s might be getting back varies, depending on who you talk to.
Since I’m asking you… but you seem to be giving us a hint that the deal could be for someone(s) that you think is equal value to your opinion on Reed’s value. I realize that the opinions of our and other team’s Front Offices are more important when considering what’s going to come down, but the name(s) floating around are either good or bad depending on who we get.
Or am I reading too much into your cryptic omments?
#52– Dave talked about this yesterday, in ‘Sorry, Cubbie fans’– I think around comment #30 or so…
#39– so, Dave, does this people are talking to you again?
Yea. But, you’ll notice, I’m being a lot more careful in what I tell you guys they’re telling me.
And no, I don’t particularly love the deal. It has its pros and cons, but I don’t think I’d make this swap. We’ll see.
Well, they say you know it’s a fair deal when both sides feel just a little bit screwed.
#44: Reed for Brandon Web????
Yea. But, you’ll notice, I’m being a lot more careful in what I tell you guys they’re telling me.
Understandable, considering fairly recent events.
Dave, what do you make of the latest additions to the 40-man? On a talent and merit basis, it doesn’t make a lot of obvious sense to me. Unless they’re just filling space with guys who can be easily cleared off as add-ons in trades or something.
According to ESPN, not only is Mussina signing with the Yankees for 2/23, he’s also deferring money to help them out with the luxury tax. How’s that for a sweet deal?
Anthony, something on your blog struck me:
Bottom line: this year’s ERA is actually a better predictor of next year’s W-L record than this year’s W-L record is. Which means judging a pitcher by his win total is silly.
Why is predicting based on W-L record (or win total) silly? I figured it was because there are too many uncontrollable factors, too much “noise” and “luck” etc.
I figured the same about ERA.
Sure, it has about 3.5% better predicative value. Yes, that’s a random number.
That’s about the same as taking a molding piece of rye bread and saying the knowledge that this piece of food is merely bread is a silly way to judge what it will taste like, since we all know that describing it as rye will give a better idea. Nevermind that spores are multiplying and turning darker shades of green before our very eyes.
A great place for this argument would be Anthony’s blog. Or email.
Or they could skip the arguement and just read this
Actually I felt I was pretty much agreeing to the value of this. Good read.
Anyway, sorry for splitting the topic.
I’ve heard a Mike Jacobs rumor. Would make sense… if true, I’d be in favor simply because Adam Jones is a better Jeremy Reed than Reed is, but we don’t have a Jacobs-style prospect with as much potential (unless you think Clement is doomed to fail as a catcher, and will be moved to 1B)
Wow! The old Mariner farmhand Troy Cate got his contract purchased by them Cardinals.
Jacobs played mainly first base for the Marlins this past season. He is a perfect fit at Safeco as he pulls the ball to a friendlier right field porch. This could be a precursor to a Sexson trade if it happened. He’s not the patient hitter that most here would like though. He’s essentially a left-handed Sexson but younger.
King…is that rumor anywhere in print?
He’s essentially a left-handed Sexson
I’d say he’s more like a left-handed Broussard. Oh, wait…
I’d flip Reed for Jacobs in a second, esp. if it meant a Sexson deal was imminent, which I imagine it would have to be.
A Sexson deal or a Broussard deal, either way. Jacobs could 1B or DH.
Mike Jacobs, lefty batting, righty mashing, first baseman, who would be cheap, but is 26 years old already. Don’t we have one of those already, well his 4 year younger doppleganger?
Check this out, from CBS’ Willie Bloomquist page:
wow, i sure messed up that blockquote. I’d appreciate somebody delete that post for me.
I find it disgusting to look at.
99 – Yes, I read it this morning. I just spent 5 minutes looking for it in the usual places, but I can’t find it. It wasn’t an offical quote, just a reference to ‘insider info’, so take it with a grain of salt.
The link might have been on a site I’d be afraid to post links to from here, so you may have to locate it yourself. If I find it elsewhere, I’ll throw the link up.
99 – Sorry, after looking some more, I couldn’t find it. I swear that I read this somewhere today, but when even combing through my history doesn’t turn it up (aside from one site I frequent where I’d have to go through dozens of posts to doublecheck – no thanks), I don’t know what to say. Unless it was taken down from a site where I read it, I don’t know why I couldn’t find it in my history. I’m 100% confident that I *did* read that, but my source will have to remain a mystery.
My apologies – I’m not trolling or making stuff up, but I honestly can’t find the original article. If someone else finds this rumor mentioned elsewhere (and not just a reference to me posting it here, but something that mentions a source of some kind), please post a link here. Sorry, guys.