M’s close to signing Jose Guillen
Looks like the Mariners have gotten the memo – one year gambles are a good way to go in a market when everyone else is committing away a roster spot for half a decade or more.
Both the Nationals writer for MLB.com and Corey Brock are reporting that the Mariners are nearing a one year deal for Jose Guillen, who would replace Eduardo Perez on the roster. In anticipation of this signing, the Nationals offered Jose Guillen, a type B free agent, arbitration last night. This means the Nats will receive a compensatory first round pick (but not from the Mariners) if Guillen signs elsewhere. They clearly believe he will sign elsewhere, as they have no interest in bringing him back for 2007.
So, what does Guillen bring to the M’s? An interesting package. He’s one of the most tools-laden outfielders in the game when healthy, mixing power, speed, and a rocket arm. However, he’s got a lot of flaws; his plate discipline is horrible, he’s feuded with almost every manager he’s had, and he’s coming off Tommy John surgery that ended a 2006 season that was shaping up to be a massive disappointment anyways.
Guillen claims he’ll be ready for spring training, and if that’s true, he’s a good bet to post a .270/.330/.460 line (adjusted for Safeco) while playing solid defense in a corner outfield role. That’s easily worth the $3 to $4 million they’re expected to pay him, and having a RH outfielder on the roster is a necessity.
Questions abound, however.
Is he healthy enough to throw? If he’s not, then he’s a platoon DH, and not a great one at that.
Will Hargrove acknowledge that Snelling needs to play and use this to shift Ibanez to DH, or more likely, does this make Snelling a fourth outfielder?
Does this end their pursuit of a veteran left-handed outfielder? Let’s all hope so.
Would Guillen’s addition give them the courage to move Richie Sexson? Unlikely, and with the Giants signing 142 players in the past two days, they’re running out of suitors.
Overall, I like the deal. It’s another short contract that has the ability to become a bargain, and the M’s did need a RH outfielder on the roster. However, it comes with a metric ton of baggage, and there’s a decent chance that the M’s could get a similar performance from Adam Jones for the league minimum. However, depth is valuable, and so is allowing Jones to start 2007 in Tacoma.
It’s a medium risk, medium reward move, but I certainly prefer Jose Guillen for one year over any of the potential left-handed outfielders that have been discussed.
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I hope that they’re thinking of Guillen as a platoon partner for Broussard only at this point. That’s 40 games a year where Ibanez can DH and the outfield defense can get a little boost. Counting on Guillen for any more than that will make for a frustrating season. Fortunately, Brock is suggesting that this will be Guillen’s role. I hope that doesn’t cost us $3-4 million, but oh well.
Losing the draft pick sucks and seems avoidable considering what (relatively little) Guillen brings to the Ms.
They don’t lose a draft pick.
Sorry, forgot the new rules, Ms don’t lose a draft pick.
Sounds fine to me. I would prefer to keep Jones a AAA for this season. Nothing wrong with the cost. Plus, given that Guillen is a “veteran,” Grover is more likely to use him in platoon situations than he would Jones. And this will make games against the Angels of Orange County extra fun
I like this deal. But we need pitching we are going from problem #3 with Thomson to problem #2 with Guillen. I wish it were the other way around but whatever.
Will Hargrove acknowledge that Snelling needs to play and use this to shift Ibanez to DH, or more likely, does this make Snelling a fourth outfielder?
With injury questions surrounding Guillen and Snelling, this might not turn out to be a big problem. Like you said, depth is valuable.
Guillen definitely fits the M’s mold of guys who don’t walk all that much. And given his bad-boy clubhouse reputation (well-deserved here), he seems like a potentially undervalued commodity.
The bad reputation also seems to make it more likely that he’ll just get released if he turns out to be a disaster, so I don’t see him dragging the M’s down with a bunch of below replacement level plate appearances.
I like the move, but then again I just made eggnog pancakes for breakfast.
I like this a hell of a lot more than their rumored interest in Aubrey Huff and Luis Gonzalez. There is however one veteran left-handed outfielder I’d be interested in, but it looks like he’s staying in SF.
Now if Bavasi can just hold his ground with Schimdt and not go past 3/36 and get the home-town discount this off-season will be looking quite nice.
This is a good two days. Guillen & Thomson (largely because of their injuries) are the kind of guys that most teams overlook but can be valuable pieces. The only thing that worries me is that it feels like the FO is making moves to sure up a contender when in my opinion they are still an impact player or two away.
They’re making moves to shore up roles that their prospects aren’t ready to fill. They’re being quite smart.
But when there are no impact players to be had, this is the best we can do. I’m happy, I guess.
Guillen wasn’t so good last year, but the dude could rake before then. This is good.
“He’s feuded with every manager he’s ever had.” (Dave) – So what! As soon as he gets out of line, expect Grover to say, something like, “Whatever you say, Jose.”
Feuding with his manager might be a positive trait in Bavasi’s eye, if his disliking of Hargrove is to believed.
I think the front office deserves some praise for the last two days. Who honestly thought a week ago that we would be making smart deals like this when everyone else was losing their heads? The FO takes a lot of flak from us guys [mostly deserved] but in this case I have to say ‘well done lads’.
Yeah, this is exactly what they need.If Hargrove wasn’t so fixated on on consistent lineups and the same nine guys every day, he’d juggle Guillen, Ibanez, Broussard, Snelling and Sexson around 4 lineup spots (corner OF/DH/1B) with an eye to giving players some platoon advantage on days off, keeping all of them fresh, and defensive substitutions
Keep in mind 80% (4/5) of a 162 game schedule is almost 130 games (129.6, to be exact)- so it’s QUITE possible to have someone who plays 100-110 games while you have regular starters, if you can make the position rotation wide (over 3 positions), if you’re good at it (plus there’s almost always chances to PH or use someone on a “day off” to keep the roster always in it).
EC is right on. This is what should happen to maximize the value of this signing. We don’t expect it to happen. Iron Mike will prefer Guillen to Snelling. And he won’t DH Ibanez much if at all.
As a quick point of procedure, re #5: keeping jones in AAA this year. how do the arbitration years work? Since he was up for his cup-o-coffee last year, doesn’t that start the clock? If he’s ready (yes, i know, a big *if*) what is the point in keeping him at Tacoma if he’s burning service years?
Dave, can you quickly explain the arby rules again re: service time. Is it x number of years played at the major league level, or is it total time under team control?
Dave, can you quickly explain the arby rules again re: service time. Is it x number of years played at the major league level, or is it total time under team control?
It’s based on days actually on the 25 man roster. So it’s not a clock that starts and can’t be stopped as much as it is a calendar with days checked off. You have to complete the equivalent of three full seasons to be eligible for arbitration, and six full seasons for free agency, with 172 days counting as a season for service time purposes. There are the super-two exceptions for early arbitration, but Jones is unlikely to fit into that mold.
If Jones is in Tacoma, he’s not accruing any service time towards arbitration or free agency. He earned about 70 or so days of service during 2006, so if he gets less than 100 days on the roster in 2007, then he’ll still fall short of one full year of service time, meaning he wouldn’t be arb. eligible until after 2010, and not free agent eligible until after 2013.
Jones is not burning service time in Tacoma, you gotta be on the 25 man roster, the DL, or a rehab assignment to acquire service time.
It burns one of his option years, no biggie and he needs another half season at AAA minimum and ideally another full year, with a September call up.
The real problem with the Guillen signing,
What about Willie?
I thought he was our RH OF bat.
Alright enough sarcasm, I like this move.
I worry that this turns into a Lawton/Borchard/Everett situation where the M’s start the season with so many corner OF/1B/DH types that they lose sight of how to actually construct an intelligent roster. Any signs they’ve learned anything from that?
Has the Thomson deal actually gone down?
And forgot about Petagine above … sorta like the M’s did for four months.
How can you like this deal!?!?!
This is absolute crap!!!
The guy is going to destroy our clubhouse while hitting .220 in the process.
You people forget that the 2004 Angels, a playoff team, basically cut the guy at the end of the season because he was such a clubhouse jerk for the whole duration of the season and basically showed up manager Mike Sciosia at the end of the season.
And if he isn’t good enough to stay on a playoff team from 3 years ago, then what makes you think he’ll be good enough to be on a last place team 3 years later one year after hitting .220 and going into a park that isn’t kind to right handed hitters?
This lineup and this team is going to be miserable again all because we have a general manager who has (poop) for brains.
It sucks to be a Mariners fan right now, that’s all I can say.
If you wanted a real right-handed power hitter that could legitimately hit for 1-2 years, then you should’ve signed Frank Thomas.
Oh thanks Tom for you stupid comment. But you know what? your the only one here that does not like this deal. IT’S A ONE YEAR DEAL! Where just filling hole for the short term. And then next season we can drop Guillen and pick up a big time hitter like Derek Lee or someone else. So shut up!
I think this is a great move. Similar to the Thomson move in that it is low-risk and may help the team. I’ve noticed a few more names around the last few days and all I can hope is that they remember the purpose of this site what makes the authors tick. They, and most of the more prolific posters try to more accurate descriptors and actually have evidence to support a statement like
I just hope this doesn’t take time away from Doyle.
I like this move just fine.
Depth is good. And, although I love Doyle, I have questions (as really anybody SHOULD at this point) about his ability to stay healthy.
The ‘clubhouse cancer’ thing is almost always overstated and/or blown up by the media once they take a dislike to a guy. And really, I could care less about clubhouse chemistry as long as the team is good.
Jose Guillen has a chance to help the 2007 Mariners be a better team, and if he does turn out to be Carl Everett v2.0, at least we can send him where we sent the first version.
Do we know if Jose Guillen believes in dinosaurs?
I thought the experts said that Frank Thomas was going to destroy the A’s clubhouse and hit .220 this past year? As for Guillen, he was A-OK with my A’s down the stretch after coming over from Cincy in 2003 and, I believe, he hit .455(?) in the ALDS while playing with a broken hamate bone.
As I recall, many World Series winning teams sported a carcinogenic clubhouse–the Reggie Jackson era A’s come to mind.
Maybe an emotionally passive team like the Mariners needs somebody to keep them aggravated or at least to keep us entertained should they go into a 95 loss tailspin.
ESPN is reporting this deal is actually $5M with an additional $3M in incentives. There’s also a $9M option for ‘08 (no word if its club or player). Is this still such a great deal?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2683902
I like the move.
Can someone explain who is going to have to give up the compensatory pick and why? That would be awesome. Is this that “sandwich round” I vaguely remember hearing about?
Tom:
You don’t like Guillen because he is a clubhouse cancer and was cut from a playoff team at the end of the season because they didn’t want him around. You proffer Frank Thomas an alternatve.
Isn’t that the same Frank Thomas who was a clubhouse cancer and was cut from a playoff team at the end of the season because they didn’t want him around?
In fact, isn’t Frank Thomas evidence that your issues may not be as big as you perceive them?
This probably means that one of the three of Reed, Broussard or Snelling gets squeezed out, doesn’t it? Assuming a 12-man staff, you’ve only got a backup C, one of those three, and Willie B on the bench every day. The other missing piece probably should be a RH four corners guy who is the backup DH option should Snelling or Ibanez get hurt (probably Mike Morse, even though they could do better). Me, I probably hold Reed, because he can hold CF if Ichiro pulls a muscle (noooo!). On the other hand, Reed’s cheapness, youth, and positional flexibility make him the best trade chit.
Of course, this means that the M’s aren’t gonna get Barry. Is there a team where he would be a better fit (well, maybe Baltimore)? Softball media, isolated market, good lineup protection, payroll room, experience with prima-donna superstars…
Re: “Sandwich pick”
Yeah, the sandwich picks occur between rounds 1 and 2 of the draft. After the 30th pick of the draft (end of round 1), the sandwich picks occur before the second round. So the first pick of the second round is usually the 60-70th overall pick.
This site tracks sandwich picks/draft pick compensation.
The first pick of the second round is usually the 40-45th pick, there’s never been anywhere near 30-40 sandwich picks between 1st and 2nd rounds.
And at most their can only be 25 sandwich picks this year since apparently that is how many free agents were offered arbitration.
Note: we should gain a supplemental first rounder for Meche but I would expect our 2nd rounder to be given to the Giants.
Schmidt will be a Mariner.
If he fueds with Hargrove, more power to him. I also think we should sign Lilly just on the hope he and Grover get into a fight.
FWIW, Hargrove has dealt successfully with Belle, Manny & Carl.
Sexson is way too young for the giants…they prefer experienced veterans…. besides they just signed Aurilia….he can simultaneously play third and first (so his puss arm doesn’t matter-he can just hand the ball to himself) while, get this, shooting fireballs out his arse……. (talk about undervalued commodities)
On an unrelated note, is there anywhere to get home/away BIP data (i.e. GO/FO/LD) for pithers-for their careers?
To what degree would the need for Tommy John surgery have negatively effected Guillen’s batting in 2006?
[unattributed content]
oops…forgot the link to the website I stole that from…
well…lets just say it was the first link of a google search for *tommy john surgery symptoms*….
#42: lets just say throbbing pain that would negatively impact both a player’s ability to grip the bat as well as his range of motion….
If he has even 80% of his arm strength and Doyle plays OF, we would have the best all-around outfield arm group in the game.
There seem to be a few teams following a similar strategy. The O’s just re-signed Millar for under $3M (one year with an option), pretty decent for someone who hit .272/.374/.437 last year.
Always been a Guillen fan. It’s a good move, if he sucks, let him walk and Adam Jones most likely takes his place in 2008.
I’m not really worried about Tommy John surgery for non-pitchers, especially for a guy who should DH at least part of the time.
ok, so discarding Emil as a future Mariner, and visualizing Jose.
Brown and Guillen are similar players, and we didn’t have to sacrifice any talent to get Guillen.
Fun things up on the Wikipedia article on Jose Guillen. Expect some good things against that team from LA, or Anaheim, or, whatever.
Not to say we didn’t need a right handed outfielder, but it should be mentioned that Ichiro Suzuki is right handed. He only bats lefty.
Fantastic news. My only fear is that this initial bliss over Bavasi doing a few things absolutely right will be marred by the eventual signing of Jason Schmidt to an obscenely long and expensive contract. But I’ll take my bliss while I can get it.
These one-year deals rock.
You gotta like this move…. Given our status as a real questionable contender I like these type of short moves. If we struggle he can be traded at the deadline, or hopefully he and we will be good and then if he does not resign, you can get a draft pick next year. With the skyrocketing free agency situation acquiring lots of draft picks is vital for our organization……Time for a 3 yr Schmidt deal.
If there’s anyway at all that we could pull that off, I’d totally be for it. I just don’t see him taking less than four years, which is pretty much a death knell for me in terms of length given that he’s already 34. I’d pay him more per year if we could get it down to three years, but any longer than that and I say no way. Spend more money in the draft and in Venezuela and the Dominican instead and be done with it.
Chalk me up for hating this deal too.
The guy is a jerk, I doubt he’ll hit all that well in Safeco AND he will take playing time away from Doyle (the main reason I think this sucks).
This guy is not going to be as useful as some think. 1 yr deal or not, it’s a waste of 3-4 mill when we STILL need some pitching.
#54 – if we suck at the trade deadline, if Guillen gets out of line (as usual) NOBODY will want him. I believe the Nats tried trading him and nothing happened.
Oh yes, he’s also the same guy that Frank Robinson told to pipe down when he got a bug up his butt regarding opposing pitchers “trying” to throw at him.
He then goes to the media and whines his team’s pitchers should be retaliating.
Sorry guys, this guy will be awful. But I guess I am alone here on this.
Jose Guillen si the shit. He’s going to be the 2007 MVP, like it or not.
if we suck at the trade deadline, if Guillen gets out of line (as usual) NOBODY will want him. I believe the Nats tried trading him and nothing happened.
Well, he had Tommy John Surgery on July 25th, so that may have something to do with it. Questions about the elbow in the weeks before that, it’s hard to trade an injured commodity.
Timeline:
July 18: Yankees show interest
July 19: Guillen leaves game with sore elbow
July 20: MRI, 15-day DL
July 24: Torn UCL discovered
July 25: Surgery
#59: Okay if you say so. I have my doubts, but I’ll give him a chance. I don’t have to like it to accept it.
#60: Good point.
Question though, if he could only hit .220 playing most of his games in RFK, what makes everybody think he’ll hit well at Safeco?
#41. Heh-heh, the Giants are old.
Also as far as getting BIP type info I think there may be some @ The Hardball Times, but besides that it seems to be pretty scarce. However you can buy it from Baseball Info Solutions, I actually worked for them collecting that kind of data a couple summers ago at Portland Beavers games.
61: He was injured in 06. Check out 05. He was the 1337 ub3r ballplayer in 05.
Question though, if he could only hit .220 playing most of his games in RFK, what makes everybody think he’ll hit well at Safeco?
Sample sizes of 248 and 109 ABs for those 2 years can’t tell you a whole lot.
Why should we even believe Jose will get significant playing time. I mean…how should we even believe that Grover will actually put Jose in the game. Last year, I really liked the Lawton pick-up (funny…last year we were picking up spare parts for duffle bag of balls…this year, the price for spare parts is $5,000,000), but Lawton never had a chance to play. Are we paying this guy a bunch of money so Grover can have a counter balance to his wide bottom on the other side of the bench?
Sample sizes of 248 and 109 ABs for those 2 years can’t tell you a whole lot.
With a bad elbow and a torn labrum, no less.
Why should we even believe Jose will get significant playing time.
Same reason Carl Everett got so many ABs. $4 million guaranteed.
I have a hypothetical….what would be stupider…
Bowden for trading Nick Johnson for E. Santana or
Stoneman for trading Santana for Sexson?
Stonemean.
I’d actually consider the Johnson for Santana. But the Stoneman is an obvious NO.
#65: if he’s healthy coming out of spring training, you’ve got to assume he’ll get the chance to play his way out of town….
What were his problems in 1999-2002 when he only had one season where he appeared in more than 100 games (and only 41 in ‘01)? Is he Doyle with a temper?
The Times has a Geoff Baker story up, with quotes. Well, if he works out as well as the last player to ‘fall into their lap’ (Joh), all is well.
#71– I know in 2001 he began the year with shoulder tendinitis, and then got back, and sprained a knee running out a ground ball…
here’s another old piece on him…
Times article quote: “I know that when I’m healthy, I can still hit in this league.”
Yeah but…can he still play the field? I don’t think anyone questions if he can still hit!
“Guillen said the idea is for him to become the team’s full-time right fielder, with Ichiro shifting over to center. It’s to play in right field,” he said. “All of the discussions we had were about me being in right field.”
So will he just be handed the job then? Outfield is Guillen, Ichiro, and Ibañez?
Good signing if Guillen can play 130 games in the OF and a few at DH(against Lefties) I am pleased with this signing good job FO!
I like this signing especially if their is a team option for 08. First Guillen at 30 and coming off a major injury has probably matured a bit. Also at 30 he is still young enough to rebound from his injuries. If he plays well we can keep him if not he can go the way of Jurassic Carl without a large penalty for next year. Finally, he’ll be playing like its a contract year and if the team picks up his option for one year he’ll be playing a second year like its a contract year. Low risk high reward. Good job FO!
So the Geoff Baker article, and the one in the P-I today as well do make me hate this deal. 5.5 million for 1 year, with up to 3 mill in incentives? Yikes, that’s a bunch of money even if it is only for 1 year.
Baker’s article does have him playing RF fulltime, leaving Doyle to rot on the bench for another year, and hey, you know we’re talking about Hargrove managing this team, not somebody who would set those lineups the way we’d like them to be.
And, not that there’s any comparison between the two, but…last year around this exact same time, wasn’t this team signing a proven veteran that had also played on 8 teams in the past 9 years, who was known to have a fiery clubhouse presence (and yes, posters at that time defended that deal saying maybe the Ms NEED that fiery presence as well) and thought he was still able to hit in this league? How long did it take Hargrove to figure out not to use him again?
5 million with three million in incenntives this year, and an option in 08 of 9 million dallars. Time will tell how well the m’s did in this signing. I do feel for Doyle though. I hope he is healthy enough that the m’s have to say we need to play him! I also hope that Jose does so well that he is recieving this inccentives. If this pans out then more than like;ly Raul will be the dh and Dolye out in left?
about the best thing to hope for this offseason seems to be “At least that’s not a frightening waste of money” moves such as this.