Winter Meetings Predictions
The offseason kicks into high gear tomorrow as the winter meetings officially get underway. Most teams were traveling to Orlando today, but now that all 30 teams are in one hotel hanging out, expect a flurry of major moves in the next few days. While the Mariners aren’t the big player they were two years ago, there’s still a good chance that they could make some big splashes. You’re going to hear them linked to a lot of names, as one of the hallmarks of this front office is exploring a lot of different options simultaneously.
Most of what you read isn’t going to come to fruition. But some of it will. Based on some conversations I’ve had with people in Orlando, rumors that have been kicking around for the past few weeks, and just a general gut feeling, here’s what I’m betting on the Mariners doing before the winter meetings end – but please note that not even Bill Bavasi has any idea what they’re actually going to accomplish, so 95% of this is going to be wrong. Take it with many grains of salt.
Okay, so I’m not going out on a big limb here. Schmidt wants to pitch in Seattle, and despite his agent trying to drum up interest in him from other teams, everyone in baseball knows it. The Mariners know it too, so they’ve been unwilling to bid against themselves, which is why Schmidt isn’t yet a Mariner. But it’d be the stunner of the offseason if it didn’t happen. He wants to pitch here, they want him to pitch here, and they have the money. It’s about as much of a lock as you can have in baseball.
Much to my delight, the M’s are willing to talk about dealing Richie Sexson, but probably a few weeks late. The Orioles and Giants have already signed right-handed first base options (Millar and Aurilia, respectively), and the line of GMs interested in Sexson as a $14 million player doesn’t extend far beyond those two cities. The addition of Jose Guillen gives the Mariners another RH bat with some power to replace Sexson in the line-up, which makes them more amenable to dealing him, but it’s unlikely that they’ll find a team willing to match the price. So, rather than taking Broussard to arbitration and paying him $4 million to play an undefined role, expect the M’s to ship him to the Orioles for a mediocre prospect or two.
Jeremy Reed has no future in Seattle. One of Bill Bavasi’s personal beliefs is that players deserve a chance to have a career, and he’s consistently bent over backwards to trade players in an effort to give them a better opportunity than he can offer. The M’s are going to sell low on Reed, but acquiring a live armed reliever or two will give them the opportunity to…
- Trade Rafael Soriano and a couple of prospects to Colorado for Jason Jennings
The Mariners have noticed the high price that relief pitchers have been fetching in trades the past six months, and none of the relievers moved have been as talented as Rafael Soriano. Due to his continuing arm issues, they’re not considering moving him to the rotation, and J.J. Putz has a hammerlock on the closer job, so he’s pigeonholed as a setup man in Seattle, and there are several teams that would love to hand him the ball in the 9th inning. The Rockies are going to trade Jennings if they can’t sign him to a long term contract, and despite the likely deal with John Thomson, Bavasi would love to add another 200 inning workhorse to slide into the middle of the rotation.
Two small trades, one large trade, and the most obvious free agent signing in history.
All of this is possible. No one knows what will happen this week, but that’s my best guess.
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seems like a solid winter meeting to me!
I think the Soriano trade would be a loss for the Mariners, Jennings is overrated.
What kind of “a couple of prospects” would we be talking about in a Jennings trade?
From what I’ve seen, Colorado is asking for serious talent in exchange for Jennings. After all, the Rockies have observed how the salaries for mediocre free agent pitchers make Jennings look like a bargain, so I’m not sure the high value of relievers in recent trades does anything more than make sure both teams have a talking point when explaining the deal afterward.
That’s ok because RP are overrated in general so it balances out.
An average ML SP ~= value as a top 5 ML RP.
I’d be fine with all those moves. Would WAY rather see Sexson traded than Broussard, but what ya gonna do, (call the Yankees?).
Only missing piece, a trade of Jake Woods if other GMs are stupid enough to look at ERA only and offer something interesting for a “cheap SP”
A Colorado pitcher with decent numbers overrated? Interesting.
Will the M’s be better in ought 7 if Dave proves the sage wild bloggerland?
Dunno.
I personally think the M’s chances rest on Beltre and Lopez’s shoulders. If they achieve full potential, and everyone else maintains, the M’s could have a shot, no matter what happens in free agency.
I personally like Jennings. Awesome sinker. He’s a 6.2k, 2.8bb, .6 HR guy, and he gets a lot of groundballs too. The Rockies call him their “ace,” and I’m not sure Soriano + ho-hum prospects could get him. It would take a lot to snag him, but I’m personally excited that the M’s are targeting him.
Well done. I can agree with most of these and it’s typical of the M’s management to go through with all of them.
In the event of a Broussard trade, do you suppose the prospect we get in return would be better or worse than Big League Choo?
To clarify, I can see how trading Reed might set things up, but assuming the trade doesn’t involve blue-chip prospects (no Jones, Clement, or Morrow), then I would think Colorado expects the trade to be a 3-for-1.
So we’d have to add somebody besides whomever we get for Reed. What kind of prospect type? Good like Feierabend, middling like Kahn, failing like Chick, organizational filler like Joe Woerman?
Question of the day, which will be worth more in 2010: Jason Schmidt or signed picture of Ray Lewis?
In the event of a Broussard trade, do you suppose the prospect we get in return would be better or worse than Big League Choo?
I probably like Broussard a bit more than most people around here (meaning I’m ho-hum on him), and I didn’t like Choo much at all, but my opinion is that they’d get less than him. It doesn’t make sense that anyone would give up >= Choo for Broussard at this time. Maybe at the trade deadline to a contender……
That depends, is the Ray Lewis photo signed in blood from the man he killed all those years ago? If so, yes.
Maybe we can throw in Mike Morse.
What kind of “a couple of prospects†would we be talking about in a Jennings trade?
Probably guys like Wlad Balentien, Yung-Chi Chen, Luis Valbuena, or Gerardo Avila. In other words, interesting guys who aren’t knocking on the door to the majors, but have some upside.
It would take a lot to snag him, but I’m personally excited that the M’s are targeting him.
I can’t find any team that loves him, which will probably cause the Rockies to have to deal him for less than you might think if they can’t work out an extension. Most of the teams in the trade market for a pitcher are trying to get one of the White Sox arms.
In the event of a Broussard trade, do you suppose the prospect we get in return would be better or worse than Big League Choo?
Worse. The M’s won’t get much for Broussard.
Question of the day, which will be worth more in 2010: Jason Schmidt or signed picture of Ray Lewis?
The Ray Lewis picture won’t cost $14 million, so that’s a no-brainer.
Why are the Winter Meetings later this year? They were a month earlier last year.
No they weren’t. They are always at the beginning of December.
There’s a difference between the GM meetings, which are held in November and nothing happens, and the winter meetings, which are held in December and everything happens.
The Ray Lewis picture won’t cost $14 million, so that’s a no-brainer.
True. However, its 2010 VORP (value above replacement pichter..pitchure…p..damn it) may actually be higher.
I really think if the Mariners are wanting to make a run at 2007, Schmidt is almost a necessity. That being said, Newsday said something about the Dodgers being confident that they will outbid the M’s for Schmidt.
It would seem with the modest signings of Thomson and Guillen that the Mariners are saving all their cookies for the Schmidt deal.
the Cubs are concentrating on upgrading their rotation with Gil Meche
Oxymoron of the year.
Dumping (and dumping being the appropriate word here), Broussard and Reed is not the most exciting of predictions. Really getting tired of Bavasi paying premium in trades and returning zilch on the turn around. He seems to buy high and sell low on about every move he makes.
All of this confidence about Schmidt signing with Seattle has me worried. It reminds me all too much of the Tejada and Rodriguez talks of 2003.
Sometimes the best of pickups doesn’t work out. The Freddy Garcia trade, at the time, looked like an absolute steal; Broussard looked less good but there was no real reason to think the wheels would fall off the way they did.
I don’t think you can really fault Bavasi for players not living up to what they could reasonably be expected to do.
I’ve Googled all over, and I’m damned if I can figure out just where Thomson and the Mariners stand with one another. The best hard fact I can discern is that the M’s have requested his medical records.
They must still be waiting for the 20-foot U-Haul to arrive from Atlanta ….
Ok, well last years post noting the start of Winter Meetings says it’s on 11/8 so that’s what threw me off.
2 questions, Dave…
1) If we don’t want to bid against ourselves for Schmidt – why give him four years? Why not offer 3/39 or 3/42 instead of 4/52?
2) Are there any other teams interested in Reed, aside from the Marlins?
While I don’t love what Schmidt’s going to cost and I’ll be bummed if Soriano and Reed leave, I think I’ll be pretty happy, overall, if all of those moves went down. Schmidt/Felix/Washburn/Thompson/Jennings is better than Moyer/Washburn/Meche/Pineiro/Felix, the bullpen is still cheap and effective, the infield is the same, & the outfield is better. Can they contend? Maybe. The AL West, as we know, is tough. But, with these moves, 2007 should be better than 2006.
I could live with that situation. It could be better, but I could live with that. that gives us a decent rotation next year, though..
A decent and off-injured rotation. Pencil in Cha Seung Baek and Jake Woods for at least 25 starts between then.
I’m on the same page as #23…Why does everyone assume we have Thomson??? It was mentioned in ONE article that we were INQUIRING about his health.
But anyway, lets assume that happens…Do you really think it’s realistic our rotation next year consists of: Schmidt, Hernandez, Washburn, Jennings, Thomson? That would be a MASSIVE improvement.
And then we pick up an excellent, underrated hitter in Guillen, without even losing Sexson in some trade (I was all for it, but if it’s unnecessary, and we can make all the above moves without clearing his salary, I’m all for it), then we’ll have a potent line up. Or should I say…a hole-free line up.
If all of the above happens I say we won’t just be competitive next year, we should be favorites to win the division.
Honestly, I think Guillen has always been overrated. He draws more attention than his talent is worth.
I still don’t see how that team could be favored against the Angels though.
I think the Schmidt deal is as close as any to happen, but I don’t ever discount some moron organization that jumps in and makes a stupid offer. Stupidity is never in short supply in MLB.
Sexson is probably correct too. I doubt they’d come across any offers that would allow them to trade him. I just don’t see Seattle accepting any trade that they can’t justify. Moving him merely to save money isn’t the easiest sell to the fans of a sub .500 team. He probably has more value at the trading deadline next year, than anything they’ll be offered now.
And, I don’t agree about Broussard, either. I think they hold him, unless they find someone cheaper to replace him. They already don’t have enough lefthanded power hitting, so it makes no sense to make it worse. I’d more look to them getting him into a deal before arbitration, rather than trading him.
Reed is gone, it’s just a matter of where. He’s a man without a position. I like the idea of a deal with Florida, especially with the arm that everyone has been talking about, headed this way. Should Soriano be traded, he’d be a good option.
Soriano traded? Considering what some real mediore arms are getting paid, he’s got closer stuff, at a very reasonable price. Somebody offers a piece that helps the M’s, I could see them making a deal. Detroit, if you’re reading this board…….Doug Jones is not the answer to a World Series title. Do yourself a favor, and find a deal that helps you in the short term. Maybin, while valuable, might be just the ticket to having a REAL closer in the making. OK, had to get my dream deal in there too.
My not so bold prediction is that the M’s make a FA deal with a veteran catcher to back-up Johjima…..someone with at least a semi-useful bat. I believe Rivera could be a fine catcher, but with Clement destine to be the number one catcher, he’s never going to get the reps he needs. Maybe, he goes with Soriano to Colorado? OK, continuing my dream….but, might as well wish high.
Am I crazy or would that be a pretty good team?
The rotation is strong Schmidt, Felix, Jennings, Washburn, Thomson.
The outfield is better than last year. Ibanez might have his production drop off some. Ichiro might drop off some. However the possible drop off from both of those players should be made up by replacing Reed, WFB, and Jones AB’s with Guillen and Snelling taking those opportunities.
The infield is tough to say. The defense should be great. Lopez should improve some. Betancourt and Beltre are both hard to predict. Sexson could continue to decline or bounce back a little.
DH should improve, its not hard to do better than Carl did last year.
If the above happens, Bavasi did a fine job. The only long term disaster could be the Schmidt deal, with the rest of the pieces being short term deals. With 07 looking brighter than 06.
Of course, the bullpen would be a weaker without Soriano and Lowe. Overall though it would still be a pretty good, and pretty cheap pen.
Pittsburgh could be a fit for a Broussard trade. They need a lefty stick, and I’m pretty sure they could fit him in at first with Nady in the OF.
Very nice. There may have been a couple of things I’d have liked to see the M’s do that they haven’t done this winter. However, I was much more keen on them NOT doing certain other things, and Bavasi has steered clear of all of them. Huzzah for Bavasi, so far anyway.
All of the above would be very satisfactory moves. I would be especially happy to see Soriano moved to the NL West, so we won’t have to face him for a while yet. And if Thomsen passes his physical and the Jennings and Schmidt deals go down, well, Bavasi will have done a pretty amazing job filling out a thin rotation without selling the farm or breaking the bank.
Way to go Bill.
Umm, Edman — Detroit has a closer in waiting (at least, that’s their plan for the guy) — did you really manage not to notice Joel Zumaya?
I don’t see the Jennings trade happening. After Schmidt, the M’s will only have one rotation slot left and they’ll have a ton of in-house candidates fighting for it. Soriano is way more valuable to them now. I’d expect whoever they get from Florida will probably be a rotation candidate as well as a bullpen possibility.
I’d like to see them work out a deal with Pittsburgh on Broussard. The Pirates could definitely use a lefty a 1B still and the M’s could use a lefty hitting backup catcher like Doumit. Problem is, Pitt won’t like paying his salary so the M’s will have to take on some from Pittsburgh. Marte seems like a good fit at $3 million. I’d send Pittsburgh Broussard, Woods, and a B/C Prospect or two for Marte and Doumit. Might work.
Dave,
How do you feel if all this happened (understanding your qualifications above)?
I’d actually feel ok about much of it. Having seen Jennings pitch first-hand, we are talking about a innings-eater with flashes of solid pitching. His xFIP is nearing 5, but I’ll take another workhorse option at the back of the rotation who won’t break the bank, especially if he can be had for short commitment. He comes with a fair bit of frustration, but for the rotation slot, I’m ok with it if it happened.
How do you feel if all this happened (understanding your qualifications above)?
It’s not my ideal scenario, but it’s way, way better than it could have been. I’d rather deal Sexson and keep Broussard, I’d hang onto Jeremy Reed and see if he can remember how to hit in Tacoma, I don’t think Schmidt is a $14 million per year pitcher, and I’m stubborn enough to still want to see Soriano moved to the rotation.
However, four years for Schmidt is a lot better than five, Jason Jennings is better than Adam Eaton or Ted Lilly, and the team would have a chance to be competitive without sinking their future.
It’d be an okay offseason. Not a spectacular success, but also not the unmitigated disaster I was afraid of a few weeks ago.
I don’t get USSM of all places endorsing a trade of Soriano for one year of a $5.5M/year backend rotation arm thats useful but overvalued.
Jennings: (29 yo in ’07)
‘04: xFIP: 4.65; GO/AO: 1.51; K/G: 5.6; BB/G: 4.2; Innings: 201;
‘05 xFIP: 4.71; GO/AO: 1.62; K/G: 5.2; BB/G: 4.3; Innings: 122;
‘06: xFIP: 4.85; GO/AO: 1.21; K/G: 6.1; BB/G: 3.7; Innings: 212;
The good: Jennings has some groundball tendencies which helps him keep the ball in the park, he’s durable (can’t really blame him for a fractured finger in ’05) and up till this season has been very cheap.
The bad: Jennings has some control issues and no ability to make hitters miss. Basically, Jennings is Jeff Suppan with worse control one year before the dramatic overpay and too-long multiyear contractual obligation.
So why did Jennings’ ERA so dramatically outperform his xFIP in ’06?
Jennings:
‘04: ERA: 5.51; dERA: 4.78; FIP: 4.77; xFIP: 4.65; HR/F: 13.4; LOB%: 72;
‘05: ERA: 5.02; dERA: 4.63; FIP: 4.47; xFIP: 4.71; HR/F: 10.4; LOB%: 68;
‘06: ERA: 3.78; dERA: 3.67; FIP: 4.01; xFIP: 4.85; HR/F: 7.1; LOB%: 74;
From what I gather, FIP is not park adjusted per se. So I also compared them to BP’s dERA (season adjusted including for park etc.). Basically the dERA agrees well with the FIP metric suggesting that Jennings’ numbers (at least the ones used above to evaluate him) weren’t skewed by Coors field-i.e. he isn’t average because of altitude.
Now what about the possibility that ’06 was a breakout year for Jennings? It’s possible, but, I’m just not seeing it. His FIP has declined every year over the period in question-good for him. But Jennings had similar K% and BB% during ’04-’06. The standout differences in his ’06 peripherals are a dramatically low HR/F rate and the highest LOB% over the years in question (though LOB% isn’t a dramatic difference). So a case can be made that while his ERA was impressive, the improvement from previous years was heavily dependent upon favorable changes in non-repeatable skills as suggested by his xFIPs (which adjusts for the homer rate). Basically his xFIPs are below average but better than replacement level slotting him as a back end rotation arm. I’d humbly suggest ’05 is Jennings’ skill-based upside. His durability makes him useful but his value all depends upon how much and for how long you have to pay him (or what you have to trade in order to acquire him). I’m not seeing him as the smartest option given he’d cost $5.5M plus Soriano and prospects. I’d rather see the Ms try to pick up a guy like Jason Johnson from Cincinnati’s trash heap and make up for the backend of the rotation with one of the best bullpens in the league. Anyway, that’s how I see it and why…
I think Colorado presents unique hardships in trying to evaluate pitchers. The humidor has dampened the effect, but it still treats every pitcher differently, and we don’t really understand how the park effects their staff. Jennings has solid stuff, above average performances, and is durable – that’s a valuable pitcher.
I agree with Dave on this one. My bigger concern with Jennings is National League hitting. I have become very wary of pitchers and hitters changing leagues. Even if just psychological (which I do not concede), the effect can be problematic, especially going from the weaker to the stronger.
I don’t want to be argumentative. He eats innings-I’m just struggling to find the “above average”.
If we land Jennings, we’ll sign him to an extension?
I’m concerned about both paying out talent for Jennings (primarily Soriano) and giving a big financial commitment to Schmidt. Isn’t that a little short-sighted? Maybe it’s the nature of the beast at this point, and maybe we can keep Jennings around long enough that it won’t be such a big deal. But it makes me a little nervous.
He’s three years younger than Suppan and costs half as much. And we’re not exactly sure what the humidor is doing, so the 4.85 xFIP may be an outlier. Before 2006 he was running with an ERA+ of just under 100… in Coors. It seems like he consolidated his skills last year (though the humidor clearly helped him).
I would see him as “above average.” If Suppan is average, then Jennings is certainly above average.
The key for me is getting Schmidt and a backup catcher….It’s hard to tell if Soriano for Jennings would help or hurt. I just don’t like throwing out R. Rivera for 30 starts of sub .200 hitting. I am pretty pleased with how things are going, and think that the West is wide open.
#44: Suppan made $4M last season while Jennings made $4.5M. I’m sure Suppan will get a raise with his next contract but basically Jennings would cost the Ms $5.5M+Soriano and prospects. Thats pretty expensive for a guy you’d only control for 1 year.
I think it’s absolutely true that the altitude effects pitcher’s stuff in ways that are hard to quantify. But thats basically a bit of handwaving to suggest as a reason to expect him to be better. The only thing I can see that he consolidated last year was a pretty low HR/F rate.
Toronto could totally take Sexson.
They’d just have to move Overbay to third and push Glaus to short. Now that’s an infield. Of course, Overbay can’t play third, but as long as Halladay’s not pitching the infield doesn’t have anything to do anyway.
But, unless you want to trade Richie for Reed Johnson, they don’t have much to offer.
Getting a guy like Jennings for 5 mil for one year would be a steal in this market. Remember that Bavasi has to find three guys to start by next spring. It would hurt to see Soriano go, but we need him a lot less than we need starters.
Jason Johnson can still get a NRI for the spring, but he’s as likely to be headed for retirement as a comeback. They’re already taking a chance on Thomsen, why take another? Wouldn’t it be nice to head into spring training knowing that at least one of the new starters will be at least average, maybe better (I’m not taking the Schmidt thing for granted yet)?
Would Huber take the slots vacated by Soriano and/or Lowe? That 8th inning door slammer is sure nice to count on, especially if he comes in the 7th when men on and less than two outs to save the game.
#46 – Soriano’s going to be too expensive for his role very soon. Putz is our closer, we aren’t going to start Soriano, so you’d rather overpay for a set-up man in the near future (a fairly easy to find commodity) than take a reasonable risk on a decent starter who can fill out the back of our rotation?
Given the current FA market for back-end starters, Jennings is a good get if we can swing it, and Soriano has some health issues, and is not being utilized in the 2 roles he seems best suited for. To fill a more pressing need and to give Soriano a real chance somewhere else, you bet I’d do the deal. And we are talking about a trade not a FA signing, so the contract parameters are pretty well known to us. I’d rather deal Soriano now for value than wait until we have to decide whether to pay him more than he is worth and have done nothing to help us win in the near term.
Actually, I could see Fruto getting that spot, or Bazardo. Both of them fit the JJ Putz mold of “RHP with plus fastball with not quite enough quality pitches to start”.
ESPN Has an ongoing story that you can go to and it’ll show you all the happening (rumors) at the winter meetings.
I don’t really disagree that Soriano very soon should either be a starter or on a different team. I don’t like the idea very much, but I don’t disagree with it.
What strikes me as a little surprising is how quickly we’ve fallen into this starter/closer dichotomy. If he’s not going to start and he’s not the closer, why pay him real money? The first part I can buy, but the closer bit? Assuming that the Mariners aren’t going to break out of their “only use the closer with a lead in the 9th except maybe at home in a tie, but even then probably not” mentality, isn’t having an excellent arm to deploy in *other* high leverage situations pretty crucial?
I mean, arguably, Soriano would end up pitching in just as many high-leverage situations as a closer, right? So, isn’t he just as much worth closer money as a Putz? If we reversed their roles, would Soriano then be worth the raise and Putz a good bargain? We can say that all bullpen arms are overrated. And we can say closers might get much higher-leverage innnings than Soriano would over the course of the year; I’m not really sure. Putz pretty clearly is a better reliever (if maybe not by all that much), even if Soriano would be the better starter. But it doesn’t seem like such a huge difference to me that if their roles were to be switched the team would be demonstrably worse.
So, I hope people take that into account talking about trading Soriano. To me the fact that the closer role is all locked up isn’t that important. In fact, if our rotation is as mediocre next year as it was this year, having an extra shut-down reliever could be huge. Thoughts?
That would be a good team! I would hurt to see Soriano leave but it makes sense.
With a good manager this would probably be a 90+ win team knocking on the door. With Grover…there’s still a lot of room to find WFB 200 AB’s & hand Mateo the ball with runners on…
53 – Good points. The closer used by Hargrove comes in for the 9th inning, unless the game is tied. Other high leverage situations, runners on, game on the line 7th or 8th inning, will hurt us downgrading from Lowe / Soriano in 2007. It sure would be a lot easier to let go fo Soriano if Lowe were healthy.
Nageotte has signed with the Mets (Minor League) with an invite to Spring training.
What I am saying is that I’d rather not overpay to fill in the back of the rotation just because a bunch of other teams will.
This notion that Soriano will become super expensive doesn’t fly either. Right now he’s a gorgeous value. Even during the final year of his contract its unlikely he’ll be dramatically overpaid compared to his worth.
Basically I think a lot of people are tending to overstate the impact of adding a Jennings to their team because, well, people are scouring the league for alternatives to paying 4 years for the available free agents. Yep he’s an alternative but his one year is going to cost you-and remember….. the Ms would be filling the back end of their rotation.
Guillen signing reported on sportsline.com
Click HERE
I hope he punches Hargrove in the face.
Needless to say “tantrum” i mentioned several times in this article.
Bavasi on the Guillen signing: “We feel like this is a signing with some real upside.”
That totally sounds like something he would have read here and used for the interview.
#57 – Yet you want to deal Soriano for Ensberg when we have the ability to fill the DH spot with guys currently on the roster?
Jennings would not be a back of the rotation starter. Let’s assume for a moment that Seattle does deal for Jennings and signs Schmidt. The 2007 rotation would go something like this:
1 – Schmidt
2 – Felix/Jennings
3 – Felix/Jennings
4 – Washburn
5 – Thomson
That’s a much improved rotation and would be well worth the cost of Soriano.
Mike Piazza for backup catcher! Uh, yeah I know. But everybody else in the AL West is supposed to be interested in him, so why not at least try to bid him up so whoever gets him has to pay more?
Assuming JJ doesn’t pull a Reitsma/Gagne/Dempster/numerous other closers
61. That rotation might not help as much as you think (at least not next year) since the three new pitchers have combined for 24 years of experience but only one (Thomson) has pitched in the AL before and that was only year worth.
Ya, I guess Jennings should be about equal to Felix….. but i’d probably, rather crazily mind you, do something like this:
1. Felix
2. Schmidt
3. Thomson (if healthy)
4. Jennings
5. Washburn
Factoring in Jennings’ ’07 salary and the value you’d give up in Soriano plus whatever younger guys it would take, you’d be essentially valuing Jennings like a poor man’s #1 or a solid #2 arm. Thats just crazy talk.
Is there any reason to think pitchers have trouble moving from the NL to the AL? I’m not aware of any history of that (unlike hitters).
That rotation might not help as much as you think (at least not next year) since the three new pitchers have combined for 24 years of experience but only one (Thomson) has pitched in the AL before and that was only year worth.
And that means what, exactly? Bartolo Colon built half of an All-Star resume based on going to the NL. TIm Hudson was fine his first year in Atlanta (he’s worn down since then, though). Kevin Millwood did fine switching leagues. So did Pedro Martinez.
The other thing is that the reality is that (assuming we sign him and Schmidt) Thomson should be most properly slotted as a 5 due to his injury history, similar to what Dave suggested we do with Kevin Brown last year, with Baek/Woods/Feierabend/Lehr all providing spring training competition for the 5 spot and backup options should a starter go down.
I can see Dave’s argument for starting Soriano, but trading off some raw stuff, low salary and team control (Soriano) for proven history as a starter (Jennings) is not an unreasonable tradeoff- especially if you think that you can turn Fruto or Bazardo into a reasonable facsimile of JJ Putz circa 2004 and you’re uncertain that Soriano would hold up for 180-200 innings, and you HAVE to come up with some answers for the rotation in 2007 that don’t involve overpaying guys like Meche and Lilly.
Anyone who will say Jennings “should be about equal to Felix” shouldn’t be calling anything anybody else says “crazy talk”.
#68: sigh….. (and the sigh wasnt sarcastic)
ESPN Rumor Central mentioned Sexson and Piles of Cash for Dontrelle Willis… I would do a trade with Sexson/Reed/Piles of Cash for Dontrelle Willis.
Would Florida…?
Is this just pure BS?
Look man, we need five starters for 07. We don’t want any free agents, because they’re crappy and overpriced. Schmidt is the best of them, and nobody on this site seems to be too happy about the M’s pusuing him. What does that leave Bavasi to do?
Fill the rotation from within the system? Well, we got Baek and Woods, but neither is a real MLB starter.
Sign last years’ castoffs and hope that one of them has a bounce-back/break-out year? OK, we’re already going that route with Lehr and Thomson.
That leaves one thing – trades. And surely you don’t expect Bavasi to make a deal for a bona fide mid rotation starter without giving up something of value, even if he’s only got one year left under contract? Soriano is good, yes, but this winter he is less valuable to this club than a guy like Jennings, IMO.
Rox apparently asking for Matt Garza (and more) from Twins for Jennings? If this is true, no way they talk R. Soriano and some throw-ins.
Twins would be f’ing crazy to do that deal.
Factoring in Jennings’ ‘07 salary and the value you’d give up in Soriano plus whatever younger guys it would take, you’d be essentially valuing Jennings like a poor man’s #1 or a solid #2 arm. Thats just crazy talk.
Um, I don’t think I’ve seen deals where you get Bartolo Colon for a good relief pitcher and prospects that are a couple years away (“Wlad Balentien, Yung-Chi Chen, Luis Valbuena, or Gerardo Avila”). Could you cite some examples, please? Please note the hauls teams got for Mark Mulder and Bartolo Colon, while you’re at it.
IMO, Soriano + B level prospects for Jennings is probably about right.
Probably, since it’s just something they picked up from an article in one of the local papers.
Soriano is about equivelant to Garza, IMO.
#73: my point was pretty straight forward…. Add Jennings ’07 salary and Soriano’s true worth over two seasons, plus whatever potentially useful bodies on top of that for ONE year of Jennings and youre pretty much saying Jennings is a Colon…
If the M’s FO acquire Dontrelle Willis, I’m buying a Padres hat and calling it a “termination of fan-dom” through mutual agreement, until the FO changes.
“#57 – What I am saying is that I’d rather not overpay to fill in the back of the rotation just because a bunch of other teams will.”
The scenario Dave gave us is not a significant overpayment (by my understanding of that term) for Jennings given the cost of comparable talent. It’s just not.
#65 – There’s no scientific measure of how the rotation will shake out in the coming year if we added the pieces above. It’s probably more like this, however (taking into account the potential and the possible underperformances):
1. Schmidt/Felix
2. Felix/Schmidt
3. Jennings/Washburn
4. Washburn/Jennings/Thomson
5. Thomson/AAAA guy
I think it’s going to be pretty fluid in this scnario, and allow us flexibility to play the hot hands at the back of the rotation. Jennings has the potential to be our #3 guy, I expect him to be a solid #4, but he could perform at a #5 level with all the transitions he faces. What I like about all of this is we can adjust.
By the way, a Jennings contract wouldn’t be paying him as a #1 starter, poor man or no. I expect we will be (over)paying #1 starter money ($14 mill?) for Schmidt if we get him. Remember that Jarrod Washburn was paid roughly 7.5 million last year, and I don’t think anybody pegged him as our ace.
From the above ESPN link-
The Twins, looking for a starter to bolster their rotation, are focusing on the lower end of the free-agent market, but have also explored the possibility of swinging a trade with Colorado for Jason Jennings. The Rockies would no doubt want Minnesota’s top prospect, Matt Garza, as a centerpiece to such a deal. Given Minnesota GM Terry Ryan’s reluctance to trade his best prospects, that’s unlikely to happen.
77 – OK, I know my sarcasm detector is not working right this morning (sorry terry) but I don’t get why you would terminate your fandom if they acquire Dontrelle Willis.
Guillen deal done
I wouldn’t want to rely on Willis as an ace, because he has been overworked at a young age, shows signs of it and has the potential to consequently be out of the game within 2 years. That’s not 100% by any means. Even with all that if the right deal came along to acquire him (the Sexson/Reed package looks good to me) I’d be happy to see him in the rotation. It’s taking a chance on his health, which is a crap-shoot even with ‘healthy’ players. Last year he cost less than Jennings’ $5.5M option year were discussing picking up. He’d cost less monitarily than Washburn with an upside much higher than either. I don’t see Sexson and Reed being nearly enough (even throwing cash thier way) but I’d take him for that.
For those interested, Bobby Livingston was DFA’d to make room for Jose Guillen on the 40-man roster.
81: Just heard that on KJR too. I guess that I’m just a little underwhelmed by what seems to be a mediocre addition. Hopefully this guy doesn’t follow the typical pattern of NL hitter who sign with the M’s then go into the tank.
77 – OK, I know my sarcasm detector is not working right this morning (sorry terry) but I don’t get why you would terminate your fandom if they acquire Dontrelle Willis.
Dontrelle is young and has very odd mechanics. His strikeouts are down, BB’s are up, and HBP went up over 100%. He’s average for FB:GB, and has a good ERA. But the way his SO, BB, and HBP, it looks like control issues. Tag that with a 75% LOB, and I’m not a big fan.
Its my belief that Dontrelle will one day, (very nicely and charmingly) spontaneously combust and retire and then go on to sell insurance.
I’m a lot more worried about the elbow and the attitude than I am about the league change with Guillen. He was 294/352/497 with 27 HR and 104 RBI with Anaheim in 2004 before he got into it with Scioscia.
I love this quote about Bonds going to the A’s, He doesn’t want to drive across the Bay, he doesn’t want to play in a dilapidated stadium, and he doesn’t want to wear the white shoes,” the agent said.
And there’s no official word on the Thomson thing yet, right?
Rox apparently asking for Matt Garza (and more) from Twins for Jennings? If this is true, no way they talk R. Soriano and some throw-ins.
Twins would be f’ing crazy to do that deal.
Yeah, the Twins certainly aren’t in a financial position to trade 5-6 years of a pitcher for one year of a pitcher, even if Jennings is pretty good and there are some question marks surrounding Garza’s control of his off-speed pitches. As the espn link mentioned, it’s not Terry Ryan’s style, so I don’t see that happening. (I’ve heard stuff as crazy as Jesse Crain plus Matt Garza or Boof Bonser as the asking price for Jennings. That’s definitely not happening, so I think there’s a lot of reporter BS floating around in the rumors involving Jennings.)
Soriano is about equivelant to Garza, IMO.
Soriano has had more history with injuries and is under team control for fewer years. Garza is starting right now, and Soriano would have to be “stretched out” to do so. Maybe in some way they have equivalent value, but it doesn’t seem like it to me.
It seems like with the dearth of available pitching out there (there don’t even seem to be that many pitchers rumored to be on the block), someone is going to do something stupid to get Jennings. So I guess this seems like the least likely thing to happen on Dave’s list–although that’s probably why he put it last on the list.
Guys: ESPN Rumor Central says THIS about a Sexson trade…IMO Willis is a longshot JUST as the article piece says:
So if any of this is to be believed, I seriously doubt we’ll be getting Dontrelle Willis at all.
I have no problem at all with trading for Jennings, but would we really want to include Wlad in any deal (as noted in #14)?
It seems to me that we have a huge lack of power hitters in our minor league system. I know he’s not the greatest prospect, but do you want to trade him so soon?
he doesn’t want to wear the white shoes
few men are strong enough to wear the White Shoes of Shame.
#90. Everything in the ESPN link is nothing more than a summary of the speculation the the PI published today. The PI writer was just doing his own rosterbation. Admittedly he was public about it and got paid for it, and I’m pretty sure there are public decency laws against that sort of thing.
I think if you payed me the 15 Million Dollars of Boundless Spending I could deal with the White Shoes of Shame.
I’ll probably sound like an idiot, but can someone tell me how to use quicktags?
I agree reasonable minds could differ on what they think of Dontrelle Willis but cancelling your fandom over him sounds a bit harsh.
By the way, his strikeouts are not down.
Dontrelle’s stats (bb/9, k/9, etc…) were down last year. But still no worse than league average. He had a terrible May, which if removed *probably* puts his stats back in line with his previous two seasons.
He’s young (yes, with mileage), and *cheap* compared to Schmidt. And a trade would most likely involve Sexson. If not just pure local beat writer BS, I can’t see it being worse then Schmidt.
#89 — My point on the Garza/Jennings rumor is that I would rather have Garza now, let alone in the future, than Jennings. While Garza was up-and-down in his debut, his minor league numbers are awesome and there is about a 90% chance he will be significantly better than Jennings next year, let alone in 5 years.
With regards to the Willis/Lowry/Hudson for Richie talk, what are the odds that the Schmidt signing still goes through?
95. Click the quicktag of your choosing say bold type in your test and than click the quicktag again.
For the link, it’ll prompt your the url once you add that and close the pop-up type in the text you want the link to appear as than click the quicktag again.
Dang it, if only we had someone gullible enough to take on Sexson’s contract for 2 or 3 mediocre prospects, then that would make me happy.
I like the idea of Jennings coming to SAFECO although I think it’s a little bit of a gamble, because, idk, he just doesn’t scream solid #2 starter. It could be because he’s pitched over in the NL and in Denver, but still. I think you’d be better off trying to trade for Tim Hudson, Freddy Garcia, etc. but Jennings would probably be ok too.
But still, I like the idea of trading for another starting pitcher increase the depth of the rotation.
Schmidt
Jennings/someone else that could be a #2 starter
Washburn (who when healthy isn’t half bad, but grossly overpaid)
El Rey Felix
Thomson/Lehr/Baek (either way, good, healthy competition for the #5 spot)
It’s not a great rotation and still I think lacking that true #1 “it” guy, but still pretty solid and getting Schmidt in here really wouldn’t be half bad if we trade Sexson for prospects.
Then it would just be almost literally like trading Sexson for Schmidt.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, trading a .240 hitter that clogs the lineup for a starting pitcher that, well, at least isn’t Pinata or Meche.
Not a bad idea.
Thanks Dash!
Am I missing something here? I thought the whole point of moving Sexon was to not pay his salary. If we’re paying him, I’d much rather have him stay here.
99. Probably down not from the Sexson rumors but from what he’s asking. I doubt the possibility is at 95% or 85% due to a 4th year making his salary $60 million and a 5th year $75 million. I would bet it’s right around 70-80 percent now.
I’ve been a big Bobby Livingston believer, as I don’t think you can be too dismissive of lefties with good control and fairish stuff, but even I lost faith him last year. His brief but disastrous experience seems to have really untracked him, as he was durably mediocre in Tacoma the rest of the way.
In his defense, his 10.97 H/9 and 4.59 K/9 numbers in 2006 in Tacoma are completely out of whack with his minor-league career norms, and he’s still young (turned 24 in Sepetmber). I wonder if he was trying to pitch his way through an injury of some kind.
In any case, I hope the M’s haven’t completely given up on him and resign him as a minor league free agent if he’s healthy. If not, I’m sure he’ll hook on somewhere else before long. I still think he has a chance to surprise a little in the back end of somebody’s rotation.
#101-Of course, then again, the bigger and more complicated question concerning the M’s never ending quest for an ace pitcher you have to ask yourself is do you have your possibly #1 starter with an “it” factor already in King Felix?
But that’s another question and debate in itself that doesn’t necessarily relate to what the Mariners need for next season.
My point on the Garza/Jennings rumor is that I would rather have Garza now, let alone in the future, than Jennings. While Garza was up-and-down in his debut, his minor league numbers are awesome and there is about a 90% chance he will be significantly better than Jennings next year, let alone in 5 years.
The knock on Garza is that he relied so much on his fastball in the minors that his numbers won’t translate as well to the majors as you would normally expect. Having seen him pitch a few times, this seems plausible. He’s got a reasonably good fastball, but when major league hitters sit on it, he’s got to throw his breaking stuff and he has had trouble controlling those pitches. When he does throw his breaking stuff for strikes, he’s gotten a lot of swings and misses or weak contact.
Adjusting for Coors, I’d say Jennings is probably better than Garza next year, but the difference wouldn’t be huge. But those are just details, anyway, we both agree that it’d be crazy for the Twins to do that trade.
From the winter meetings report Peter Gammons just claimed the Mariners and Dodgers are in the hunt for Manny Ramirez.
Any chance the Mariners are doing this?
I agree with #103. Why trade Sexson if we are going to pay his salary anyway? It’s not as if he’s blocking someone in AAA (or anywhere else for that matter).
He is still a power threat, which this team desperately needs. Of course I also realize that he is a strike out threat, and runs about as well as a three-toed sloth.
#107 — I think we are mainly in agreement, but I am a little more optimistic on Garza than you are. I have him pegged for a major break-out year next season (and will draft in my fantasy baseball league accordingly). I like Jennings, too, but see him doing more of the same, without anywhere near the upside.
I would certainly rather have Garza going forward than Soriano — primarily because I don’t think Soriano will ever have the health to start.
From the winter meetings report Peter Gammons just claimed the Mariners and Dodgers are in the hunt for Manny Ramirez.
Any chance the Mariners are doing this?
I don’t see what we’d give up to get him.
From the winter meetings report Peter Gammons just claimed the Mariners and Dodgers are in the hunt for Manny Ramirez.
I think Bavasi should focus his time on pitching instead of things like this.
If it involves Adam Jones, no way.
If it involves Richie Sexson and/or Jeremy Reed, hooray!
Not with what I hear the BoSox are asking for. We’d have to give up Adam Jones and Soriano (at least) to even compare to the package the Red Sox are rumored to be asking for.
From the winter meetings report Peter Gammons just claimed the Mariners and Dodgers are in the hunt for Manny Ramirez
The only way this would be possible would be for Jones or Clement or Ichiro or somebody similar, which is way to much of a risk for 2 years of Manny Ramirez. Bill, don’t get distacted! Focus on pitching.
I wonder if Manny would waive his no-trade clause to come here.
I’d take Manny for Sexson/Soriano. But not for Sexson/Putz. I’m not sure what that would do to our quest for pitching, though. If we have Manny on board, it seems like paying Schmidt would be too much. But if we have to trade for Manny, do we have the pieces to trade for a Jennings, or, if possible (if not highly unlikely) a Willis?
But breaking stuff doesn’t work as well at Coors, which is why it continues to inflate batting averages even as the humidor brings down HR rates, so maybe Garza getting by on fastballs is a good fit for Colorado?
I wonder if Manny would waive his no-trade clause to come here
Probably. He was willing to trade it to come here before this season so I’d be surprised if he didn’t do it this time. Plus he has history with Hargrove.
Is history with Grover a good thing?
And no one can successfully wear the white shoes of shame. What do you think is keeping the A’s out of the World Series?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bavasi do a Jones/Soriano for Ramirez deal. Problem being Hargrove and the type I can see being discouraged from Jones’ outing last year at the big team.
Not saying it’s the right move, but it’s certainly possible.
Jones would be a great trade for Manny. Adam Jones is blocked like crazy in Safeco, and Safeco would diminish his potential greatly. He’d do very well in Boston… and Boston knows it. He’s an amazing centerpiece, and it’s almost not possible to do better for him.
I wouldn’t send them Putz and Jones unless we couldn’t get them to take the deal any other way… I’m a bit low on Soriano until he proves he’s mentally past the Vlad incident (especially with Lowe in such dangerous ground).
I’d do Sexson-Jones in a heartbeat. I’d rather do Jones-Soriano-AAA pitcher, if they’d bite… Ibanez at 1B isn’t a pain, but I think many people underestimate Sexson’s value on a short contract, with the ability to hit for good righty power in Safeco.
AM…….If I was Detroit, I’d want someone else to close, other than Zumaya…….he was way too scary in the series. It’s just a feeling, but I don’t think it’s something he’s going to work out of.
Following these rumors can be sorta weird when you look at the possible (remote as they may be) projections. If we somehow got Manny, kept Sexson, yet lost Soriano, Putz among others in the process, wouldn’t we be a lil’ too close to the shortcomings of the 1996-97 M’s? Granted, those teams at least won…even if scores resembled the Seahawk games.
Jones would be really thoroughly blocked in Boston, as well, since they have a very shiny centerfielder of their own coming up in Jacob Ellsbury. If the Sox got Jones et al for Ramirez, I’d except further trading to occur as they spin off some of their excess of outfielders.
Geoff Baker is filing updates from the meetings for the Times…
It seems easier to build a bullpen than get an impact hitter like Manny though.
If I were Theo Epstein, I would see getting rid of Manny’s contract as an even trade of losing his service. Being the sharpie he is, he’ll come out ahead by stocking the Red Sox organization with a few top prospects.
He doesn’t need Sexson. Why should Sexson displace Youkilis?
If I were Theo, I’d hold firm for a Jones/Putz deal.
as is Aaron Gleeman
Thinking we’ll be able to dump Sexson and get Manny is wishful thinking. As Mariner fans, it’s best to be more realistic.
128: I’m pretty sure I don’t agree. The Red Sox are already a very very good team. There aren’t a lot of things they can do to get as much better as Manny Ramirez makes them over their alternatives in left field. Given the crazy contracts being handed out to outfielders this offseason, one of the reasons that Ramirez is being not just shopped around but asked after by other teams is that you absolutely cannot get players of his caliber for $20 a year right now. If Epstein trades Ramirez, he’s not just dumping salary, he’s losing a talent that needs to be replaced if Boston is going to send New York home in September. Since Ramirez’s contract is far from ludicrous, Epstein really doesn’t need to trade Ramirez at all, which is why he’s holding out for some crazy package of prospects from Ned Coletti or Putz+Jones here.
So, if the M’s DO aquire Manny without giving up Sexson, what would that do to our FA acquisition budget? What would be left for pitching, and where would we get it, assuming that our best trade pieces would be given up for Manny?
This leads me to believe the M’s won’t go after Manny, since we really need pitching the most, and it seems a foregone conclusion that Bavasi will offer Schmidt too much.