Vidro passes physical, trade official

DMZ · December 18, 2006 at 1:49 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

From MLB.com. Now that the trade’s done, we should get some comment out of the front office about what they were thinking, which will be disappointing and inadequate.

Yup:

“Jose is a professional hitter,” Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi said. “We feel we can add him to our batting order anywhere from the second to the sixth spot and he will add production to our lineup. With the addition of Vidro and Jose Guillen (a free agent signed earlier this month) to our returning players, I think we are a much stronger offensive team.”

Snelling will be a better offensive player than Vidro next year. Pick your metric: OPS, VORP, EqA, whatever.

Word on the 2009 option:

Vidro, who waived a no-trade clause, had a 2009 vesting option added to his contract as part of the deal. If the option doesn’t become guaranteed, Vidro would receive a $500,000 payment.

Without knowing the details of the vesting option, it’s hard to say how bad that is.

Comments

186 Responses to “Vidro passes physical, trade official”

  1. Otto on December 18th, 2006 1:52 pm

    Nothing they say can justify this trade IMHO

  2. Gorman on December 18th, 2006 1:56 pm

    Yeah!! check out this lineup

    Ichiro
    Vidro
    Beltre
    Ibanez
    Sexson
    Guillen
    Johjima
    Lopez
    Betancourt

  3. Steve T on December 18th, 2006 1:56 pm

    I assume the statement will read something along the lines of “On November 1, the Seattle Mariners were purchased by the Oakland Athletics ownership group, who have announced today that the Ramirez and Vidro trades are merely the first steps in establishing their new ‘division punching bag’ program.”

  4. Dash on December 18th, 2006 1:59 pm

    PI article here. Supposedly it improves the offense.

  5. EnglishMariner on December 18th, 2006 2:03 pm

    As a relative baseball newbie from a far away continent, even I can see that this trade is just plain shocking for the M’s. Why, FO, why?

  6. rd on December 18th, 2006 2:05 pm

    Man, someone needs to organize a protest outside the stadium. “Snelling forever, Bavasi never!”

  7. Adam S on December 18th, 2006 2:05 pm

    At least it sounds like 2008 is an option not a guarantee.

    The front office doesn’t believe in the value of walks, believes Broussard’s six weeks is indicative of his future performance as a Mariner, and thinks Vidro will turn back time and repeat his 2003 season once the strain of playing the field is removed. Thus he’s an upgrade over Snelling. (That’s me trying to read minds, not sourced from anywhere.)

  8. Coach on December 18th, 2006 2:08 pm

    Oh, good. Nice job, Bill. Also thanks for making it clear he will be the DH. In this way you can drive down the price for Broussard. That way, when you give Ben away for a 40 yr. old bullpen arm, we won’t be so disappointed. Thanks so very much.

  9. bradderup on December 18th, 2006 2:09 pm

    I live in Portland but organize a protest and I am there, name the place and time.

  10. Otto on December 18th, 2006 2:11 pm

    I’m an hour and a half south of Portland I’ld be there for a protest!

  11. idahowriter on December 18th, 2006 2:13 pm

    Nice to know that Vidro overcame his “geographical issues” to waive the no-trade clause. We just bought an aging, decaying, never-played-a-game-in-the-AL, “professional hitter” who didn’t even want to come to Seattle until Bavasi was dumb enough to overpay him.

    Somewhere, Carl Everett is laughing his ass off.

  12. bermanator on December 18th, 2006 2:15 pm

    Bavasi is right. Vidro is a professional hitter, in that he is paid to hit, making him ineligible for the Olympics.

    I’ve watched him here in Washington. Please don’t hold the circumstances of the deal against him. Give him a chance. He had a great reputation in the clubhouse both in Montreal and in Washington, and I think he will be better than many of you seem to expect.

  13. Celadus on December 18th, 2006 2:23 pm

    There’s an article by Ryan Mock in Baseball Digest Weekly. He speculates (and compares the career OPS arcs of Vidro with another Mariner player) that since the careers are fairly similar as of Vidro’s present age, Bavasi might be speculating that Vidro comes into his own in his mid thirties. The other Mariner player, of course, is Edgar.

    If Vidro turns into 80%-85% Edgar, even for a couple of years, the trade won’t be a disaster. More than likely, however, like the myriad of other players who have a similar arc to Vidro, in two years we’ll be looking at 10% Edgar or, perhaps, out of baseball Edgar.

    Still, however speculative, it is at least a reason with upside. But it’s one you still wouldn’t have had to give up all that talent for, so even if it works out . . .

    Here’s hoping that, by this time next year, we’ll affectionately be referring to Vidro as “Little Poppy.”

  14. greymstreet on December 18th, 2006 2:25 pm

    Upside?
    That hurts somewhere deep

  15. C. Cheetah on December 18th, 2006 2:28 pm

    Bermanator…I do not think many people on this site believe that Vidro will not perform near or even above his career averages…when he plays. Further, I am sure he is a good guy…That is not the point.
    Many of us do not feel that Vidro will be able to play 120 games over the next 2 years, nor do we think Vidro’s career numbers are good enough to be a full time DH at any price, and most of all, most believe the $12M+ could have been spent on a few people that could have done the above with money left over to sign a “high reward – high risk guy like B. Claussen and etc…

  16. terry on December 18th, 2006 2:29 pm

    sigh…….

  17. terry on December 18th, 2006 2:32 pm

    who knew the grinch was actually bald and pale rather than green and hairy?

  18. Evan on December 18th, 2006 2:37 pm

    I think he will be better than many of you seem to expect.

    Coming to a park that kills righties, and moving to the harder league. I don’t think so.

  19. ChrisK on December 18th, 2006 2:40 pm

    Jim Bowden tried to give Vidro a complement by saying “he still has the capabiity to hit 15 home runs”.

    Whoa, a DH who can hit 15 HRs? No wonder it’s taken Bavasi 2 offseasons, millions of dollars and 4 prospects to find a player with such unique talents!

  20. Choo on December 18th, 2006 2:41 pm

    Crap. I watched CNN all day yesterday; praying for the men in the snow cave . . . praying it was Bavasi and Vidro, seeking refuge from the angry Mariner fans who shot down their plane.

  21. DMZ on December 18th, 2006 2:41 pm

    w/r/t Vidro as Edgar:

    It’s always possible that a player might turn out so well, and I appreciate his intentions, but Edgar was a unique hitter, and one of the best in baseball. It’s possible that Vidro could have a late-career surge after being moved to DH.

    But it’s unlikely.

  22. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 2:42 pm

    Without knowing the details of the vesting option, it’s hard to say how bat that is.

    What? Is that some sort of pun Derek?

  23. Coach on December 18th, 2006 2:44 pm

    I don’t understand the focus many posters choose to take. Playing Devil’s Advocate seems to be the motivation in a lot of cases, though I’m guessing.

    Look, to me it’s very simple – are we going in the right direction, or not? The issue isn’t about what kind of a guy is Jose Vidro. Look at the decesions that are being made. Look at the choice to replace a need we had at DH by selecting Carl Everett. There were some who tilted the prism far enough, selected some subset of stats or clubhouse anecdotes, and made the argument that it was indeed possible for Everett to work out. That was not the issue then, just as now it is not the issue whether it is theoretically possible that Vidro could have a productive month/months/year.

    The question should have been – how likely is it that Carl Everett will fill the need we have at DH. Stop right now and add up the cost of that decision. We are likely not done paying yet. As the desperation mounts, the price of the Everett decision continues to grow. It is the gift that keeps on giving.

    I really don’t care that Vidro might be a good clubhouse influence or that Snelling’s health may never improve. I want to know if there is any chance this franchise will be competetive other than through blind, dumb luck. Unless I see some evidence of sound decision making, I’m guessing we need to wait for blind, dumb luck.

    Don’t try to convince us that a player might be better than we generally think. Try to convince us that there is a rationale behind the moves this organization is making that we might be missing.

  24. Thingray on December 18th, 2006 2:47 pm

    That’s what is killing me. I can’t figure out any rhyme or reason to any of the moves they’ve made this offseason.

    I wish I could figure out what the FO’s plan is, but I’m beginning to doubt that they even have one!

  25. Typical Idiot Fan on December 18th, 2006 2:49 pm

    Vidro, who waived a no-trade clause, had a 2009 vesting option added to his contract as part of the deal. If the option doesn’t become guaranteed, Vidro would receive a $500,000 payment

    Without knowing the details of the vesting option, it’s hard to say how bat that is..

    Actually, I think this is an improvement of sorts. We’d been hearing rumors last week that the only reason Vidro waived his no trade clause was the 2009 option was guaranteed to be picked up by the Mariners. If there’s even speculation amongst the media about the 2009 option, and this particular tid-bit is thrown out (probably to the media from the M’s office first), then it’s very likely the M’s haven’t picked up the 2009 option at all, and may be debating the subject.

    After all, right now if you “promised” him it to get him to waive his no trade clause, you can still back out of that come the end of 2008 and though he can try to cry foul, he still gets financial compensation for it in the form of a 500k buyout.

  26. Dash on December 18th, 2006 2:50 pm

    I’m beginning to wonder when the Bill Bavasi mask gets ripped off to reveal that the teams actually being run by Matt Millen or Wally Walker.

  27. Stuck-In-Chicago on December 18th, 2006 2:50 pm

    #24
    Motivation seems simple enough: mortgage the future to save their (Baldy & Dudley) current jobs and/or give give them enough positive spin so they transition (like a wrecking ball) onto their next unsuspecting mlb team.

  28. Choo on December 18th, 2006 2:54 pm

    The only thing Edgar and Vidro have in common is that each has the raw speed of a phone booth. Edgar had an amazing eye (almost gecko-like), great coverage, and he squared absolutely everything. Edgar was also a cult hero/product of the Mariners farm system, ala Doyle. Every dollar Edgar made, he earned as a Mariner. And each of those dollars was paid back ten-fold in the form of wins and good old fashioned fun for Mariner fans. In that regard, Doyle is more Edgar than Vidro will ever be.

  29. revbill on December 18th, 2006 2:57 pm

    The subject of the e-mail the Mariners sent out about this is, not surprisingly, “Mariners Acquire Three-Time All-Star.” I was hoping they re-signed Brett Boone.

  30. Thingray on December 18th, 2006 3:03 pm

    #28 – That’s exactly what I’m afraid of. It seems like they thought they could make a big splash by getting Schmidt, and when they missed out they began making desperate moves.

    It sure seems like they are trying to save their jobs now, with no regard for the future of the organization.

  31. msb on December 18th, 2006 3:08 pm

    I still think Vidro is a Hargrove-Get. it just smells like it.

  32. Stuck-In-Chicago on December 18th, 2006 3:08 pm

    Too bad the “Pottery Barn Rule” doesn’t apply here. You break it and it’s yours. No wait… Bavasi would be owner and Hargrove would be GM and they’ll turn the Mariners into a soccer team.

  33. dw on December 18th, 2006 3:13 pm

    I’m beginning to wonder when the Bill Bavasi mask gets ripped off to reveal that the teams actually being run by Matt Millen or Wally Walker.

    We’ve been over this. It’s Cam Bonifay.

    It’s always possible that a player might turn out so well, and I appreciate his intentions, but Edgar was a unique hitter, and one of the best in baseball. It’s possible that Vidro could have a late-career surge after being moved to DH.

    Wouldn’t that require him to already have shown his ability to take a walk? Because I don’t think of a .363 lifetime OBP as “Edgar-level ability to draw walks.”

    I find the lapses in logic from the FO to be very disturbing.

  34. atait on December 18th, 2006 3:16 pm

    Here is Keith Law’s take (big surprise):

    I have no idea what the Mariners were thinking. None. I had to take two ibuprofen tablets after I learned about the deal so that I could write this analysis.

    Jose Vidro is an old 33: His knees are shot, he can’t play the field anymore, and his power is gone. He’ll be one of the worst designated hitters in the American League, and he just bumped a superior hitter, Ben Broussard, out of that role. Yes, Chris Snelling is a Man of Glass, and he’s out of options, but he has actual ability and is still just 25 years old. Yes, Emiliano Fruto has below-average control, but he’s 22, has a plus fastball and solid-average change, and has less than a year of major league service. And to make this even more ridiculous, the Mariners apparently are going to pick up Vidro’s option for 2009 — by which point he’ll need a walker to get to first base without help from two teammates.

    It’s one thing to get worse by attrition, as your best players leave due to free agency or retirement. It’s another to get worse as part of your core strategy, giving away talented young players in exchange for oft-injured mediocrities, just making things that much harder for your successor in the GM chair.

  35. Coach on December 18th, 2006 3:17 pm

    #31 yes, MSB I’ve thought the same thing. Bavasi using the term “professionsal hitter” seems more likely something that first came from Dudley’s mouth.

  36. seagood3 on December 18th, 2006 3:19 pm

    While I do not agree with many of the moves the Mariners have made this offseason I would just like to try to think positive for a second. I don’t think Vidro staying healthy will be much of an issue considering he will be the DH. Of course something could happen but for the sake of argument lets say he has a healthy year. Lets take a “glass half full” look at our lineup. (just for a second forget that we gave up soriano and snelling)

    1. Ichiro .331/.376/.438 (I just penciled in his career avg. here, I don’t think Ichiro will be an issue this year)
    2. Vidro .311/.370/.476, 15 hr 70 rbi
    3. Beltre .270/.330/.465, 25hr 90 rbi (repeat from last year)
    4. Ibanez .285/.353/.516 27hr 115rbi (a slight decrease in BA and HR but RBI stay with improved and consistent lineup)
    5. Guillen .290/.345/.485 25 hr 90 rbi (more or less an avg of his last two healty seasons)
    6. Sexson .270/.358/.529 38hr 115 rbi (I am not as down on him as most people here. This line reps his avg for his last 5 healthy years)
    7. Johjima .300/.340/.470 20hr 85rbi (his production improves slightly from last year)
    8. Lopez .295/.340/.450 15hr 90 rbi (Lopez has a very solid season but nothing that would be classified as “breakthrough”)
    9. Betancourt .285/.315/.400 8hr 50rbi (I was not sure what to do with Betancourt so I left him relatively the same as last year)

    That is not a bad lineup. I believe Vidro will be a better situational hitter than anyone we have had bat number 2 in the past couple years. That is something that has been sorely lacking on this team. Although Vidro and Guillen are not the superstars that make headlines I believe they give our lineup a very well rounded feel. Whether or not that translates to runs and wins I do not know. I don’t think that any of those lines are ridiculous, although I do realize that they may be going against the recent trends (see vidro and guillen).

    But what if one of the following Sexson, Beltre, Lopez or Joh has a breakout year. Sexson and Beltre have shown in the past that they are capable of putting up monster numbers. I would bet on Sexson having a breakout season more than Beltre as I believe last year is representative of who Beltre is and that is fine. There is a good chance that Ibanez could come back down to earth but that could be balanced with an improving Lopez and a bounceback year from Sexson.

    Again I know that this isn’t the most popular, or some may say rational prognostication in this community but it isn’t that far fetched either. Think about it, this team is improved.

    Pitching on the other hand….

  37. jamesllegade on December 18th, 2006 3:19 pm

    OK… #1: the guy is 32. Isn’t that early to be considered ‘shot’?

    #2: Didn’t he win the Silver Slugger 3 years ago?

    #3: I agree this sux as a DH move but lets say Vidro is healthy and can play 2nd; what if the M’s took Jose Lopez, Richie Sexson and Putz and traded for Manny? I know from a moneyball standpoint that would be sorta crazy… but from a “Lets win this year” standpoint it would make a lot of sense.

  38. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 3:20 pm

    [nope]

  39. seagood3 on December 18th, 2006 3:23 pm

    Our only hope now is that Bavasi explodes into a ball of flames or if he still doesn’t have power “accidently” dies of Carbon Monoxide poisoning.

    That is really not needed.

  40. msb on December 18th, 2006 3:24 pm

    #37– the Silver Slugger is the offensive equivilent of the Gold Glove… “Winners are picked by major league managers and coaches, who are not allowed to vote for their own players. Selections are based on a combination of offensive statistics, such as batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage, as well as general impressions of a player’s offensive value.”

  41. Choo on December 18th, 2006 3:26 pm

    The thought of Hargrove still having enough clout in the eyes of the FO to make roster decisions is frightening. Hargrove’s duties should not extend beyond filling out the lineup card . . . and even that is debatable.

  42. jamesllegade on December 18th, 2006 3:27 pm

    #37– the Silver Slugger is the offensive equivilent of the Gold Glove… “Winners are picked by major league managers and coaches, who are not allowed to vote for their own players. Selections are based on a combination of offensive statistics, such as batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage, as well as general impressions of a player’s offensive value.”

    Um… OK. But the fact that he was a MLB leading offensive 2nd baseman… bodes well. I just think the ‘on his last legs’ stuff is being overplayed. I mean a guy tweaks his hammy and he loses range… but that doesn’t make it permenant. He did push Soriano off of 2B last year.

  43. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 3:27 pm

    That is really not needed.

    I don’t see how that’s not needed. I was just stating the obvious. Besides that has more of a chance of happening then him actually getting fired.

  44. stoyboy on December 18th, 2006 3:28 pm

    msb: I read somewhere that Guillen and Vidro are good friends. I am sure Guillen told Bavasi and Hargroves that they could pickup Vidro on the cheap and that he is ready to have a good season. Little did he know that Bavasi would overpay and get fleeced by Bowden.From what I read from other sports news agencies Seattle FO is a laughing stock for these off season dealings. At this point in time a complete retooling of this team will have to take place in 08. This team is so screwed up now(team/player roles) I don’t see an out(if you will pardon the pun).

  45. jamesllegade on December 18th, 2006 3:29 pm

    Coach Owens said:
    December 18th, 2006 at 3:27 pm
    That is really not needed.

    I don’t see how that’s not needed. I was just stating the obvious. Besides that has more of a chance of happening then him actually getting fired.

    Dude… I have only been in hear a few minutes and have seen two posts from you about the untimely death of M’s employees. This is not Yahoo. Nobody wants to see stuff like that.

  46. Evan on December 18th, 2006 3:30 pm

    Here is Keith Law’s take (big surprise):

    That’s actually the smartest thing I’ve seen Keith Law write in some time.

    Who would have thought that Ricciardi was the brains of that operation?

  47. wsm on December 18th, 2006 3:30 pm

    I know we all love Snelling, but the odds of him ever posting a full season with an OPS over .800 are not good at all. In fact I’m willing to bet Jose Vidro gets another .800+ OPS in a season with 500+ PAs before Snelling will.

    And lets face it, the M’s will gladly take an .800+ OPS out of any position, any year. Even DH.

    Vidro is not the best move, nor a move I can condone. But I think its an upgrade over Everett, Benuardo, and, yes, even Snelling.

  48. jamesllegade on December 18th, 2006 3:31 pm

    stoyboy said:
    December 18th, 2006 at 3:28 pm
    msb: I read somewhere that Guillen and Vidro are good friends. I am sure Guillen told Bavasi and Hargroves that they could pickup Vidro on the cheap and that he is ready to have a good season. Little did he know that Bavasi would overpay and get fleeced by Bowden.From what I read from other sports news agencies Seattle FO is a laughing stock for these off season dealings. At this point in time a complete retooling of this team will have to take place in 08. This team is so screwed up now(team/player roles) I don’t see an out(if you will pardon the pun).

    I’d like to read those other sports news agencies… you have any links handy?

  49. Lauren, token chick on December 18th, 2006 3:32 pm

    Opening. Day. Protest.

  50. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 3:35 pm

    Opening. Day. Protest.

    How about, Season. Long. Protest?

  51. Mat on December 18th, 2006 3:36 pm

    Snelling will be a better offensive player than Vidro next year. Pick your metric: OPS, VORP, EqA, whatever.

    Sure, if you want to pick a reasonable metric. But what about small-ball rating?

    Small-ball Power Rating:
    10% SO% — Vidro
    25% SO% — Snelling

    Vidro puts the ball in play! Don’t we know that putting the ball in play automatically means a better offense?

    In this day and age, I don’t know how people can get so caught up with “productive outs” and “putting the ball in play,” but that’s the angle from which I suspect the Mariners are looking at this.

  52. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 3:39 pm

    Just for this one time, can we get an exemption on the automatic deletion of “name calling” Derek?

  53. jamesllegade on December 18th, 2006 3:39 pm

    WHAT IF THE M’S PLAN TO TRADE FOR A TOP FLIGHT HITTER???

    Trade Lopez and Putz for a impact OF and put Ibanez at DH?

    I don’t buy all the ‘Vidro can’t play 2nd anymore stuff’… the guy is only 32.

  54. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 3:41 pm

    I know we all love Snelling, but the odds of him ever posting a full season with an OPS over .800 are not good at all.

    And what basis are you judging this? (The health, I understand, but the other? For someone who hasn’t had a full season?)

    And, again, at his best, Vidro was giving a slightly below average offensive performance for a DH–couldn’t we have found that for a cheaper price elsewhere?

  55. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 3:42 pm

    In this day and age, I don’t know how people can get so caught up with “productive outs” and “putting the ball in play,” but that’s the angle from which I suspect the Mariners are looking at this.

    I think this is stated philosophy of the Mariners braintrust, stated first by Armstrong. They look far more at strikeouts and putting the ball in play as opposed to…um…not getting out.

    I don’t buy all the ‘Vidro can’t play 2nd anymore stuff’… the guy is only 32.

    Um, isn’t this what he himself is saying?

  56. stoyboy on December 18th, 2006 3:45 pm

    #48: Of course check ESPN Insider article(Keith Law) mentioned above in todays Blog. I will get some others for you. I know an article from mlbtraderumors.com from just after the Soriano for Ramirez trade fiasco was another negative article on Bavasi’s incompetence. There have been at least four negative articles on trades/FA signings done by Bavasi that the writers say make no sense.

  57. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 3:47 pm

    I don’t buy all the ‘Vidro can’t play 2nd anymore stuff’… the guy is only 32

    Well he can’t. He’s had many hamstring/knee related injuries that took a lot of his speed (which he never really had) and flexibility. He even said in an earlier article that “I can’t play there [second base} anymore.” So you better believe it.

  58. revbill on December 18th, 2006 3:52 pm

    Trade Lopez and Putz for a impact OF

    What about the trades Bavasi has made makes you think that he would get an “impact OF” for Lopez and Putz? I just want him to stop making trades and get fired already.

  59. stoyboy on December 18th, 2006 3:52 pm

    I have a problem with the Vidro signing because even if he hits .290-.300 with 9-11 HR and 68 RBI’s in 07 what is the point of him hitting DH full time. I can’t see him hitting more HR or RBI’s than that. He missed what 35 games last year and only hit 7HR and 47 RBI. What can you realistically expect from Vidro as far as production even with the benefit of a healthy season?

  60. Bender on December 18th, 2006 3:55 pm

    2. Vidro .311/.370/.476, 15 hr 70 rbi

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahahahahhahaha….

  61. wsm on December 18th, 2006 3:57 pm

    And what basis are you judging this? (The health, I understand, but the other? For someone who hasn’t had a full season?)

    His .666 OPS in 241 AAA ABs and his September nose dive in Seattle in 2006 have me convinced. Plus if he can’t stop striking out 40% of the time he’s not going to get close to 500 PAs for anybody, even the Nats. Besides, if I’m a Nats fan, I’d much rather see Kory Casto in LF next year.

  62. Manzanillos Cup on December 18th, 2006 3:59 pm

    So Jeremy Bonderman just got a 4 year 38 million dollar extention. This seems like a great deal for the Tigers, considering Bonderman is roughly 1000 times better than the Royal’s new $55 million statement.

  63. Coach Owens on December 18th, 2006 4:02 pm

    Okay, Okay I apologize for comments #38 and #43.

  64. Ed Tsantamount on December 18th, 2006 4:07 pm

    It will be interesting to see how Doyle does this year. I’m sure we’re all rooting for him. The dark thread running through the majority of Bavasi’s trades over the past several years is they all seem to be done without any thought of the future, meaning the next few seasons. The several trades made at the end of last season now all seem for naught. Pointless. One trade negates the next and Bavasi seems to be in a desperate struggle to plug the holes in this mess while in reality is only making them larger. Pathetic. No forethought. No direction.

  65. Tek Jansen on December 18th, 2006 4:10 pm

    All the comments from Vidro and M’s management indicate that Lopez’s position is safe. Vidro cannot play second, at least not every day. He might start once every 15-20 games to give Lopez a day off. And he could also give Beltre a day off now and then. But I have no doubt that the M’s plan to use him as their regular DH.

    By the way, iss Broussard done in Seattle, or will he occupy the Roberto Petagine Memorial Bench Spot?

  66. Choo on December 18th, 2006 4:11 pm

    #53 – Trading Putz after his breakout year as a closer would have been the smart “Moneyball” thing to do, but that is not longer an option now that Soriano and Fruto have been shipped. Dealing Putz would leave our bullpen woefully thin. Also, if dealing Lopez were part of the master plan, they would have at least explored the possibility of signing Marcus Giles for less money than Vidro will make. He’s younger and can actually field a defensive position.

  67. Adam S on December 18th, 2006 4:11 pm

    know we all love Snelling, but the odds of him ever posting a full season with an OPS over .800 are not good at all. In fact I’m willing to bet Jose Vidro gets another .800+ OPS in a season with 500+ PAs before Snelling will.
    Not that I want to turn this into a gambling site, but I’d take that bet in a heartbeat.

  68. PositivePaul on December 18th, 2006 4:12 pm

    OK… #1: the guy is 32. Isn’t that early to be considered ’shot’?

    Average shelf-life of a 2nd Baseman? Around 36-ish. And those are the ones with the good knees. Vidro’s legs have to be as bad as Edgar’s were when he was 40. While we can certainly HOPE Bavasi has struck lightning in a bottle like Gillick did with Boone before his age-32 season, I certainly wouldn’t place any bets on it happening.

  69. Dave Clapper on December 18th, 2006 4:12 pm

    We throw around the phrase “organizational philosophy” here from time to time, generally when bemoaning what seems to be the M’s lack of one. But I think they have one. I don’t like it, but I think I’ve finally figured out what it is. They look at 2001 and the 116 wins and they see one man: Ichiro. They have a severe man-crush on Ichiro (and that’s understandable) and they look to create a line-up based on what they perceive of him: aggression. He puts the ball in play and he almost never walks. Walks are a sign of non-aggression, so they’re eschewed by the organization. The problem is that, in doting on 2001, they see only Ichiro’s MVP season and not the OBP of players like Olerud (.401), Boone (.372), Cameron (.353), Edgar (.423), McLemore (.384), and Javier (.375). Ichiro was at .381, but they don’t see the .381 OBP–they see the .350 BA.

    It’s reflected in the way they ran the basepaths in 2006, it’s reflected in the types of players they sign (free-swinging batters and ground ball pitchers), and it’s reflected in the types of players they trade away. Snelling is a patient (i.e., not aggressive) hitter, and he therefore does not fit the organizational philosophy. What I don’t quite understand is how a patient player like Mike Hargrove (.290 career BA/.396 career OBP) turns into an aggressive philosophy manager.

    At any rate, I’ve come to the conclusion that the M’s have tried to develop a philosophy based on one of baseball history’s more extreme outliers. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

  70. Dave Clapper on December 18th, 2006 4:14 pm

    68: lightning==steroids?

  71. Man From Nantucket on December 18th, 2006 4:19 pm

    Not to pile on or anything, but here is a blurb about the trade on Rotoworld:

    Mariners acquired second baseman Jose Vidro from the Nationals for outfielder Chris Snelling and RHP Emiliano Fruto.
    Vidro gets a club option for 2009 as part of the deal, and the Mariners are set to pay him $12 million of the %16 million he’s owed over the next two years. It’s a ridiculous amount to pay in cash and in talent for someone who needs to bounce back substantially just to be an average designated hitter, especially with Ben Broussard already on the team and Craig Wilson, Erubiel Durazo and Carlos Pena sitting out there in free agency. We’re optimistic that Vidro will rebound somewhat, but it’s still another bad trade by one of the game’s worst GMs.

  72. wabbles on December 18th, 2006 4:20 pm

    Um, didn’t we used to have a professional hitter who also was one of the best right-handed hitters of all time? He hit .241 in his last injury-riddled season. I hope this one stays healthy and does better.

  73. Thingray on December 18th, 2006 4:21 pm

    It just sucks to have zero faith in the FO. Every time I hear a trade rumor involving the M’s, I cringe because I figure we’ll get hosed on the deal.

    Help me out here, when was the last time the M’s FO made a decent trade? Bragg for Moyer?

  74. Bender on December 18th, 2006 4:24 pm

    Average shelf-life of a 2nd Baseman? Around 36-ish. And those are the ones with the good knees. Vidro’s legs have to be as bad as Edgar’s were when he was 40. While we can certainly HOPE Bavasi has struck lightning in a bottle like Gillick did with Boone before his age-32 season, I certainly wouldn’t place any bets on it happening.

    What are you basing this assessment of Vidro’s legs on? Edgar was hobbling around on a pair of burnt chicken wings at age 40.

  75. Choo on December 18th, 2006 4:24 pm

    [roids, ban]

  76. Mat on December 18th, 2006 4:24 pm

    What I don’t quite understand is how a patient player like Mike Hargrove (.290 career BA/.396 career OBP) turns into an aggressive philosophy manager.

    I used to be confused about that, too, but it kind of makes sense if you look a little deeper in his numbers. He posted an absolutely obscene SO/BB total in his career. 965 walks against 550 strikeouts is pretty crazy. But the ratio isn’t so important here as the fact that he didn’t strike out much. His 550 strikeouts works out to a less than 10% rate–hey, right around where Vidro’s at!

    Also, he was apparently way too aggressive on the basepaths. Even in a limited number of attempts, 37 caught stealing against 24 stolen bases is pretty darned awful. Basically, it’s about as stupid as you can be on the basepaths without being fired.

    So the whole “I hate strikeouts and really want to take chances on the basepaths” attitude makes sense from that standpoint.

  77. Nate on December 18th, 2006 4:26 pm

    yeah, well I’m thinking we’re going to pay a boatload in money and talent to re-acquire snelling following the 2010 season.
    that’d be about par for the course.

  78. PositivePaul on December 18th, 2006 4:43 pm

    Heh. I’m sure this quote applies for him to now much moreso than when Vidro said it in 2002, in response to the question “How would you change the game?”:

    Jose Vidro, Expos: When you hit a home run, you don’t have to run around the bases. Just hit the ball and go back to the dugout.

  79. D Truth on December 18th, 2006 4:54 pm

    77-Just like Raul Ibanez

  80. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 4:54 pm

    His .666 OPS in 241 AAA ABs and his September nose dive in Seattle in 2006 have me convinced.

    Obviously doesn’t take much to convince you. (Remember, the Willie BLoomquist love is based on a somewhat larger sample).

    Can we say small sample size in a rehab year?

  81. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 4:57 pm

    It’s reflected in the way they ran the basepaths in 2006, it’s reflected in the types of players they sign (free-swinging batters and ground ball pitchers), and it’s reflected in the types of players they trade away. Snelling is a patient (i.e., not aggressive) hitter, and he therefore does not fit the organizational philosophy. What I don’t quite understand is how a patient player like Mike Hargrove (.290 career BA/.396 career OBP) turns into an aggressive philosophy manager.

    Because it’s been implemented on high, from way before Hargrove was hired (and Hargrove wouldn’t have been hired if he didn’t fit into that philosophy).

  82. Johan on December 18th, 2006 5:08 pm

    The last time we picked up a 2B that was this limited of a hitter we got Boone. Maybe Bavasi thinks hes getting another Boone? They have steroid testing now, though, so thats probably not happening.

  83. eponymous coward on December 18th, 2006 5:09 pm

    Uh, Edgar broke Vidro’s career high in BB his first full year in the majors- and his walk rates increased in his 30′s. Vidro’s walk rates are down (from around 11% of his plate appearances at his peak at age 28 to 8% now).

    Vidro’s career OPS (and that includes his really good years) of .822 would be 7th in the AL. So, basically, he HAS to improve in order for us to be average at the position (his 2006 OPS of .743 would put the M’s at 12th in the AL). Now, granted, the Mariners were terrible last year (.667 OPS)… but trading prospects for a mediocre DH who has to dramatically reverse a an age and injury-related decline? How stupid is this?

  84. Paul B on December 18th, 2006 5:11 pm

    I’d like to point out that Vidro’s OPS has declined now for 4 years in a row. If we want to compare Vidro to a former Mariner I’d say that sounds more like Dan Wilson than Edgar.

    Last year, his OPS was only a tiny bit higher than Jose Lopez’. I’m a big fan of Lopez, but no way would I want him as my DH. (Lopez had a higher Slugging than Vidro, but due to Hargrove a lower on base than he should have had).

    Obtaining Vidro is just an awful move. Unimaginably bad.

  85. eponymous coward on December 18th, 2006 5:11 pm

    The last time we picked up a 2B that was this limited of a hitter we got Boone

    It’s possible that’s what they were thinking, but Boone was a free agent that we got on a one year deal for 4 million, and his injury in 2000 didn’t affect his range or ability to run, so he could play second base instead of DH, so it’s a bad reason.

  86. Dave Clapper on December 18th, 2006 5:13 pm

    Because it’s been implemented on high, from way before Hargrove was hired (and Hargrove wouldn’t have been hired if he didn’t fit into that philosophy).

    Except that if you look at the teams he managed in Cleveland, they didn’t fit this philosophy. With a very few exceptions (Carlos Baerga comes to mind), they were good OBP guys.

  87. chetmasters1985 on December 18th, 2006 5:17 pm

    [namecalling]

  88. Ed Tsantamount on December 18th, 2006 5:29 pm

    Crush or no crush, this is a shitty ass trade. One of many. Whether or not Vidro=Snelling is beside the point. We don’t need Vidro at this or any inflated price. We don’t need Vidro period.

  89. Ed Tsantamount on December 18th, 2006 5:31 pm

    I half expect us to trade Putz for Brad Radke next.

  90. Karen on December 18th, 2006 5:32 pm

    #79 just like Raul Ibanez in response to #77. yeah, well I’m thinking we’re going to pay a boatload in money and talent to re-acquire snelling following the 2010 season. that’d be about par for the course.

    I was just going to say the same thing!!

    Another noteworthy thing…Ibanez didn’t return to Seattle until after Lou Piniella, his nemesis regarding playing time, had left for Tampa Bay. Obviously it might take Hargrove/Bavasi/Armstrong/Lincoln leaving for Chris Snelling to follow the same career path as Ibanez…

  91. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 5:45 pm

    Except that if you look at the teams he managed in Cleveland, they didn’t fit this philosophy. With a very few exceptions (Carlos Baerga comes to mind), they were good OBP guys.

    Yeah, but I don’t think Hargrove was very key in putting these teams together. And it still remains that the makeup of the team is determined more by Armstrong et al’s philosophy; Hargrove is their hire to execute it.

    It is absurd to say that Snelling is going to be better than Vidro.

    No, it isn’t. It may be wrong, but the minor league history and the scouting reports certainly do not make it absurd.

  92. bakomariner on December 18th, 2006 6:20 pm

    watching fruto was like watching bobby ayala come out of the pen…i cringed every time…and where snelling is a fan favorite, vidro is the better player now…and that’s what bavasi cares about…not the future…snelling may or may not even be in the league in a couple years…remind you of another cult favorite? bucky jacobson anyone? the offense should be fine, and improved…we always have a good, if not great bullpen…it’s the starters we have to worry about…they could average 15 wins each or 5…that’s going to be the key…

  93. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 6:25 pm

    and where snelling is a fan favorite, vidro is the better player now…

    I’m not so sure that it’s that clear cut or even true. In a year where he was definitely struggling and not used regularly, Snelling put up a .787 OPS. Vidro did put up better numbers, but it was a .810 to .820 OPS (using his road figures, which were better than his home numbers). Is that “definitely”? And worth a trade?

  94. msb on December 18th, 2006 6:30 pm

    wow, at least three ‘roid cracks in one thread.

    What are you basing this assessment of Vidro’s legs on?

    it’s not quite Edgaresque, but it is not good:

    2003 right knee patellar tendonitis
    2004 right knee patellar tendonitis, repaired at end of season
    2005 foot, quads, re-aggravated right knee, elected to not have surgery.
    2006 hammy strain (took a month to recover), aggravated right knee

    “I’m coming here to be the DH. Not to play second base. I can’t do that every day anymore.”

  95. PADJ on December 18th, 2006 6:30 pm

    “I think we are a much stronger offensive team”

    Well Bavasi got that one right at least. They are certainly more offensive… ;-)

  96. DMZ on December 18th, 2006 6:58 pm

    I can’t believe anyone would seriously compare Snelling to Jacobsen.

  97. mark s. on December 18th, 2006 7:02 pm

    “(BLANK) is a professional hitter”
    I remember hearing this before: Lewton, Petagine, Everett?
    Too bad Snelling isn’t a “professional hitter”.

  98. Ralph on December 18th, 2006 7:10 pm

    Don’t forget Dave Hansen.

  99. A Bag Of Beans! Wooo! on December 18th, 2006 7:12 pm

    Perhaps Jose Vidro, like Bill Bavasi, is a Banner Bank customer.

  100. Steve Nelson on December 18th, 2006 7:14 pm

    and where snelling is a fan favorite, vidro is the better player now…

    I’m not so sure that it’s that clear cut or even true. In a year where he was definitely struggling and not used regularly, Snelling put up a .787 OPS. Vidro did put up better numbers, but it was a .810 to .820 OPS (using his road figures, which were better than his home numbers). Is that “definitely”? And worth a trade?

    Using EQA to correct for park effects, 2006 data:

    Vidro: .268 EQA in 511 PA
    Snelling: .282 EQA in 119 PA

    It’s hardly clear that Vidro was the better player in 2006. With another year of age decline by Vidro and allowing for changing leagues, betting that Snelling is going to be as good as Vidro in 2007 is pretty clearly the short odds bet.

  101. PositivePaul on December 18th, 2006 7:27 pm

    Seriously. If this was a swap for Nick Johnson, then I think there’d be less wailing and gnashing of teeth. This gut-punch move hits us doubly-hard. One of our faves is no longer with us. In return, we get a player whose career could pretty well be on life support.

    Now that it’s officially official, a moment of silence.

    .

    .

    .

    Thanks.

  102. bakomariner on December 18th, 2006 7:43 pm

    pitching, pitching, pitching…i like snelling too, but aren’t most people going a little overboard here? he’s not the second coming…we should be more upset at losing soriano, thornton, moyer, etc. having either vidro or snelling won’t win the west…having the best pitching will…texas has always had hitting-no pitching-no titles…when seattle, the angels and the athletics win…pitching…so let’s stop freaking out about this kid (who i loved watching and was pulling for as the fourth outfielder and reed going out the door) and hope that now bavasi will send reed and/or broussard for some PITCHING!

  103. Jeff Nye on December 18th, 2006 8:04 pm

    Can we get something added to the FAQ about “overreacting” so that it isn’t brought up in every single thread about bad moves the FO makes?

    Please?

  104. JMadisonIV on December 18th, 2006 8:04 pm

    I don’t buy all the ‘Vidro can’t play 2nd anymore stuff’… the guy is only 32.

    take it from a Nats Fan who has been watching him since they got here:

    He can’t.

    he’s got NO range anymore. Vidro’s knees = done. He was destined for DH duty in the AL.

  105. gwangung on December 18th, 2006 8:28 pm

    pitching, pitching, pitching…i like snelling too, but aren’t most people going a little overboard here? he’s not the second coming…we should be more upset at losing soriano, thornton, moyer, etc

    Soriano, yes. Thornton…um, no! Moyer probably not…he was gradually gliding into Baek territory…he wasn’t there yet, but he wasn’t that far away.

    It’s more a cumulative effect, because the perceived value of Soriano should have fetched us more than what we got.

  106. Paul B on December 18th, 2006 8:51 pm

    and hope that now bavasi will send reed and/or broussard for some PITCHING!

    I really have no faith that Bavasi could make a trade and get anything of any value in return. He’s done nothing that I can recall that would give anyone reason to hope.

    The other GM’s have to be thinking they can get something for nothing from Bavasi.

  107. David J. Corcoran I on December 18th, 2006 8:55 pm

    Dave Hansen for Jon Huber is the only trade he’s made that’s worked out.

  108. terry on December 18th, 2006 9:08 pm

    #36: Do ya have the munchies now?

    Your projections translated into approximate Pecota percentiles:

    Ichiro: 70th percentile
    Vidro: 90th percentile
    Beltre: 60th percentile
    Ibanez: 90th percentile
    Guillen: 70th percentile
    Sexson: 50th percentile
    Johjima: 70th percentile
    Lopez: 80th percentile
    Betancourt: 75th percentile

  109. Bender on December 18th, 2006 10:05 pm

    Hey terry, while you’re at it, you should post that lineup with the stats people would have at the 50th percentile.

  110. Graham on December 18th, 2006 10:26 pm

    Except if you replace Vidro with Chris you magically have a -better- lineup for cheaper!

  111. Rusty on December 18th, 2006 10:39 pm

    It’s not just performance-based baseball fans who are disappointed. My mother who is usually a composed person was spitting mad about the Rafael Soriano and Chris Snelling trades. She would think DIPS is a pluarlity of troublemakers. She would think OPS is an exclamation when making a boo boo. But she did know that Raffi and Snelling were 2 of the most promising players on the Mariners.

    There is no excuse. Whether you use the old “eyes” method from yesteryear (my mother started following baseball in the 1950′s), or you use Bill James’ latest techniques, those 2 trades were just plain bad. Dave used the term “ignorance”. I would use the phrase “wilful ingnorance”.

  112. oNeiRiC232 on December 18th, 2006 11:10 pm

    I’ve been thinking…that something HAS to be up. Bavasi must have known is was an incredibly horrific trade. He must have. Absolutely must have. Is he a mediocre-to-poor GM? Sure, but to be any GM at all you must have at least a slight amount of sense, which would be enough to know this was obviously bad.

    My theory:

    -Bavasi, in wanting Jose Guillen so badly to be a Mariner (as THAT was a very sensible signing with good upside), sealed the deal by promising Guillen that he would bring in his best friend as well — Jose Vidro. When it came time to talk to the Nats about Vidro, the Nats sensed a position of poor leverage and fleeced Bavasi accordingly — because to break a promise with Guillen would mean his primary offensive acquisition would all of the sudden become a clubhouse-rotting shit storm.

    By assuming that Jose Guillen wouldn’t have come to Seattle without Vidro, I’m rationalizing the trade by saying we got Vidro AND Guillen for Snelling and Fruto. Slightly less bad.

    And this also shifts the GM screwup from being a comically (and almost unbelievably) bad talent evaluation to multiple errors in negotiating tactics, which I believe is more believable and inline with Bavasi’s mediocrity.

    Thoughts?

  113. Adam S on December 18th, 2006 11:22 pm

    Terry, you’re just guessing at Pecota projections and how those numbers would match up, right? You aren’t looking at pre-2006 projections for 2007, are you?

    I’d be surprised if Beltre and Betancourt matching 2006 are really much above 50th percentile. And I can’t see an aging Sexson matching his 5-year average being the 50th percentile. But yeh, the projections on Guillen and Vidro, which would be turning back the hands of time while playing in a pitcher’s park, are pretty much 90th percentile.

    And overall this expects a good, if not great, year from everyone. I always find it amusing when people want to make projections or talk about a player’s level of performance by “averaging” seasons and giving equal weight to an age 29 season three years ago as last year. Beltre should improve on last season (though I admit to having a soft spot there) and Guillen will outdo his horrible injured 2006, but Lopez is the only player in the lineup who’s on an upward trend in his career path.

  114. Josh on December 18th, 2006 11:48 pm

    Here is the lineup with the predictions from #36 followed by PECOTA numbers. Unfortunately I don’t see any updates for 2007 yet, so these are 2006 forecasts, but any small would-be gains are probably negated by declines in the aging veterans and Safeco moves. Overall as a lineup, 2006′s forecast for the players is probably not terribly different than the 2007′s will be, but likely just weighted differently.

    1. Ichiro .331/.376/.438 .302/.337/.396
    2. Vidro .311/.370/.476 .266/.336/.383
    3. Beltre .270/.330/.465 .271/.320/.464
    4. Ibanez .285/.353/.516 .272/.339/.427
    5. Guillen .290/.345/.485 .279/.333/.466
    6. Sexson .270/.358/.529 .263/.369/.513
    7. Johjima .300/.340/.470 .286/.347/.420
    8. Lopez .295/.340/.450 .263/.298/.409
    9. Betancourt .285/.315/.400 .252/.285/.371

  115. Josh on December 18th, 2006 11:56 pm

    *50th Percentile

  116. oNeiRiC232 on December 18th, 2006 11:56 pm

    .266/.336/.383? I hope he’s got an ignitable nickname and some scrappy superlatives.

  117. mack on December 19th, 2006 12:02 am

    Okay, I’m calm. Relaxed. Chanting, remembering my mantra . . . oh-ner-move-bill, oh-ner-move-bill . . . ah, that’s better. Finding my happy place, where I’m the owner of a fantasy team, and Bavasi has to ride on the roof of the team bus. I’m a caring fellow; I have the driver stop at a Walgreen’s so that Bill can get some salve for the scorch marks he got from having his hiney seared like a scallop, riding that hot seat like a griddle.

    In my happy place, the news is good. The Mariners are acquiring winning players, and making trades that have columnists nationwide nodding their approval. Keith Law doesn’t have a whatever-ache. And other teams GMs aren’t treating our GM like Vegas treats its “high-rollers.” “Oh, yes, Mr Bavasi! What time would you like to be picked up!”

    But I’m NOT in my HAPPY PLACE. I’m looking at the list of transactions the M’s have been involved in this winter, and it’s loss-loss-loss-loss-I don’t want to COUNT any higher-I am an ANGRY Mariners’ fan.

    Doesn’t Bavasi know what it means when the boss tells him, “You’re on the hot seat?” It means, “Don’t screw up anymore.” Any-more, because you don’t get pushed into the hot seat when you’ve been doing a good job. Somebody HASN’T been doing a good job.

    The HOT SEAT doesn’t mean: a warm, comfy place to relax and mull over your recent successes. That’s a summer afternoon in a field box seat, maybe section 129 with your best pal.

    Where I will be on Opening Day, trying to delude myself once again. In the meantime, you can find me in my happy place unless this space cadet makes another stupid trade.

    PS: Howard, baby: Maybe, perhaps, it might be a good idea if, rather than trading for “Professional Hitters,” you actually try to acquire Good Hitters?

    – Mack
    From the happy place . . .

  118. hub on December 19th, 2006 1:37 am

    From 2003 to 2006, the M’s have lost most of the casual fans, along with many of the serious fans. This pitiful offseason have now cost the franchise a good portion of their die-hard fans. Welcome once again, to the early-80s Mariners.

    Why are we all still here rooting for this team? I really don’t know anymore. Except that, despite all this mess, we have remained. I guess if we haven’t left this club by now, we probably never will. Go M’s…even though there’s little to actually ROOT for anymore.

  119. matthew on December 19th, 2006 2:04 am

    The Times are wondering Can M’s go from Vidro to Zito? I’m curious to know if this is a good idea. I’d like the wins, but what will this do to our budget for the years to come? Also, isn’t it Ms, not M’s? Just wondering…

  120. Tak on December 19th, 2006 6:15 am

    Honestly speaking it would be a bad move since Zito is not worth the money / risk, and it will potentially hurt the team even more in the long run. But again, at this point there is no way I can see the current team placing better than 3rd in the division, and I do not think many fans want to stick around rooting for a non contending team for much longer, so I rather see them make this move just for this season’s sake. Not that Zito will make them playoff contenders automatically, it would be a pretty decent step forward.

  121. BrianV on December 19th, 2006 6:25 am

    It’s M’s. The apostrophe is replacing ‘ariner.’ See: The A’s hat.

  122. David J. Corcoran I on December 19th, 2006 6:43 am

    119: It’s M’s, because it’s a contraction, not a possessive. It’s like A’s.

  123. terry on December 19th, 2006 7:26 am

    Will attendance in ’07 be effected or affected by this offseason?

  124. Josh on December 19th, 2006 7:28 am

    From that Seattle Times article:

    Vidro will be the Mariners’ full-time designated hitter, a position that needs a major upgrade.

    Freudian slip?

  125. IdahoInvader on December 19th, 2006 7:29 am

    120

    I agree. Long term there it is obviously a risk to tie up that much payroll in just one player. A player who could, (not saying he WILL, just realizing he COULD) decline to the point where this would be a reallly bad idea. BUT…he would certainly be a huge asset in 2007 for sure and make it so it would be POSSIBLE to contend imho.

  126. PositivePaul on December 19th, 2006 7:35 am

    Will attendance in ‘07 be effected or affected by this offseason?

    The effect of Bavasi’s horrible moves will not be good. It’s already negatively affected a lot of fans.

  127. PositivePaul on December 19th, 2006 7:36 am

    Oh, and because of that, attendance will definitely be affected.

  128. jeffs98119 on December 19th, 2006 7:58 am

    Quote of the day from the Skipper:

    “Everything we’ve heard about Jose, and what we’ve seen from our own observations, is that he’s one of the better hitters in the game today,” M’s manager Mike Hargrove said by phone. “He will fit in our lineup real well.”

    See, don’t panic: He’s one of the best hitters in the game today!

  129. JeffS on December 19th, 2006 8:26 am

    I swear, you are all a bunch of babies… Get over it — what’s done is done. I am looking forward to the start of the season because this team is unquestionably better than last year.

  130. frenchonion on December 19th, 2006 8:34 am

    Here’s what actually happened:

    Bavasi reads this blog. He knows that Doyle is USSM’s pet project. Bavasi also resents the names he gets called here, and the shots at his ability to lead a franchise.

    Bavasi traded Doyle out of spite — it was nothing to him either way. He made the trade just to see the reaction.

  131. terry on December 19th, 2006 8:49 am

    #129: *gently patting your head and softly speaking in a mothering tone*… “its ok…..you have worth”

  132. Pete on December 19th, 2006 8:56 am

    #129: By what standard are you measuring last year’s team against this one? Unquestionably better?

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is a pretty widely-accepted comparison of the two teams so far:

    Line-up — older, marginally improved.
    Starting rotation — difficult to say, probably the same or worse.
    Bullpen — weakened.

    I’m not sure how you could say the team, as currently put together, is “unquestionably better.” I can’t even think of one position, position player or pitcher, that can be called an “unquestionable” improvement. Ichiro vs. Reed in center field might be one, but that’s really a carryover.

    This team is a “teeny-weeny” bit better than last year’s at best.

  133. jaysbaseballfan on December 19th, 2006 9:18 am

    Rotoworld says the Mariners are making a run at Barry Zito..

    “Says the Seattle Times, there are increasing rumblings in the industry that the Mariners are considering, or already in the midst of, making a serious run at free agent Barry Zito.
    It might be more to placate the fans than anything else. The Mariners aren’t going to match the Rangers dollar for dollar, and if Zito is going to take less money, he’ll probably do so in order to play for the Mets.”

  134. Evan on December 19th, 2006 9:21 am

    The rotation’s better. Batista > Meche, and almost anyone’s better than Pineiro. But we still need another guy, don’t we?

    The lineup might be better. Sexson, Ichiro, Johjima, and Ibanez are all a year older, so expect slight declines there, but Betancourt and Lopez are both still improving. Beltre holds station. Vidro’s probably better than Everett (that shouldn’t be our goal, but there it is). Guillen’s realistically replacing Doyle in the lineup.

    The bullpen’s weaker.

    On paper, this team might be better than last year’s. But this off-season had so much more potential for improvement than the last one – that coud be why this sucks so much.

  135. jaysbaseballfan on December 19th, 2006 9:40 am

    yeah but the A’s took serious steps backward. They will crash absolutely. Beane’s magic can’t work forever. The Angels have a lot of young talent, and the Rangers are, meh.

  136. Evan on December 19th, 2006 9:48 am

    Why can’t Beane’s magic work forever? His formula has held up remarkably well over the years. The A’s are my favourite to win the AL West until they stop contending.

    Remember Beane’s pattern.

    April-May: Find out what team you have.
    June-July: Get the team you want.
    August-PS: Win.

    As long as that keeps working, I’ll keep expecting it to work.

    I think the Angels are the team we can catch. The Rangers and A’s are well beyond our reach.

  137. Ralph Malph on December 19th, 2006 9:54 am

    Remember Beane’s pattern.

    April-May: Find out what team you have.
    June-July: Get the team you want.
    August-PS: Win.

    You left out the last step:
    October: Lose in playoffs.

  138. Evan on December 19th, 2006 9:54 am

    What we need is something like what the Jays had last season. I was just arguing with Joe Sheehan and noted that Russ Adams did badly, and Glaus nailed his PECOTA projection, the rest of the team kicked ass.

    Hill, Hinske, Hillenbrand, Catalanotto, Rios, Overbay, Zaun, and Molina all approached or passed their 75° PECOTA projection. Wells made it to 90°. Reed Johnson destroyed his projection (his 90° WARP was 2.5 – he managed 5.5).

    Only shortstop was bad (Adams and McDonald). The rest of the team was sick. If the M’s had that happen they could contend.

  139. Evan on December 19th, 2006 9:57 am

    You left out the last step:
    October: Lose in playoffs.

    I’d still take it.

  140. revbill on December 19th, 2006 10:05 am

    I’d still take it.

    Yeah, it’s not like we’re used to rooting for a perennial World Series winner here. Losing in the playoffs is the best the Mariners have ever done.

  141. msb on December 19th, 2006 10:08 am

    well, you have to admit he’s honest.

    Even Bavasi says the additions of free agent Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez, picked up from Atlanta in exchange for Soriano, doesn’t necessarily make the Mariners rotation any better now than it was at season’s end.

    “Our rotation is different,” Bavasi said. “I’m not sure that it’s better. But these are guys with a different approach, and the rotation may be a little better.”

    That’s fairly cold comfort for Mariners fans, given that the No. 1 priority this offseason was to improve the starting pitching.

    “I’d like to say for the peace of mind of the starting pitchers that we’re done,” Bavasi said. “But that’s not the way the real world works.”

  142. Tek Jansen on December 19th, 2006 10:13 am

    What was interesting in the Times’ article on Vidro and Zito was that the M’s mentioned that they do not want to be used by Boras as a stalking horse to drive up the price of Zito for the Rangers or the Mets. Could this mean that the M’s interest in Zito is legitimate and that the the connection between Zito and the M’s in the media is not the Boras camp doing what they do best.

  143. jaysbaseballfan on December 19th, 2006 10:15 am

    I don’t like PECOTA that much. It gets its effectiveness by working out averages that are good amongst all mlb players. But for individual good ones, like the ones you mentioned above, they can exceed it.

  144. gwangung on December 19th, 2006 10:18 am

    I don’t like PECOTA that much. It gets its effectiveness by working out averages that are good amongst all mlb players. But for individual good ones, like the ones you mentioned above, they can exceed it.

    Huh? This makes no sense.

  145. strong silence on December 19th, 2006 10:22 am

    “Vidro is a professional hitter…” Using Bavasi’s criterion, Snelling is a better hitter.

  146. msb on December 19th, 2006 10:30 am

    re: Zito, for me it isn’t so much whether the M’s are willing to spend the money, as it is Zito’s actual interest in anyone but NY, as summed up by Jon Heyman today:

    The Mets are viewed by many as the favorite to land the top free-agent pitcher on the market in what could be a five-team derby. The Rangers, Giants, Mariners and Angels all have shown interest in Zito, who is believed to be seeking a deal for about $100 million.

    [snip]

    The Mets are seen as the favorite not necessarily because they are expected to blow away the competition but because Zito is believed to favor a big-city locale, most notably New York or Los Angeles.

  147. revbill on December 19th, 2006 10:30 am

    I’m starting to feel a little sorry for Bavasi. There are a lot of quotes where he just sounds like a broken, beaten-down man, he’s the subject of a bunch of national columns that paint him as the laughingstock among GMs, and he’s probably winding down his last job as a GM by building another last-place team.

  148. strong silence on December 19th, 2006 10:31 am

    “Vidro is a professional hitter…” Bavasi must be taking talent evaluation lessons from Dave Valle, who once said of BJ Surhoff, “Surhoff is a professional hitter….he puts the bat on the ball.”

  149. Evan on December 19th, 2006 10:44 am

    I don’t like PECOTA that much. It gets its effectiveness by working out averages that are good amongst all mlb players. But for individual good ones, like the ones you mentioned above, they can exceed it.

    I don’t think you understand how PECOTA works.

  150. terry on December 19th, 2006 10:49 am

    I don’t like PECOTA that much. It gets its effectiveness by working out averages that are good amongst all mlb players. But for individual good ones, like the ones you mentioned above, they can exceed it.

    I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. One of the criticisms of Pecota is that the given set of comparable historical players may be larger or smaller for an individual thus making the conclusions more or less reliable. Ichiro is a guy who could be a good example-he’s freaky wierd. As for guys who blow up their projections, well Pecota isn’t destiny after all. I’d love to find proof of a GM who continually formulated a roster that blew up the projections though. The chronic offenders like Ibanez, well, they are few and far between. The Aurilia’s of world usually regress.

  151. bakomariner on December 19th, 2006 11:29 am

    the team we have to watch out for is the angels because of their rotation and their farm system…the a’s took a step back…and texas is texas…seattle should finish at least second in the west, and first if everything goes perfectly…have faith…the starters will be better (can’t be worse)…the offense will be better…and the ‘pen will hold…believe people…believe…

  152. Adam S on December 19th, 2006 11:30 am

    Zito: I sound like a broken record but “yuck”. Zito isn’t any good. OK, that’s hyperbole, but he’s a #3 or #4 starter who wants to be paid like he’s one of the best 20 starting pitchers in baseball. There’s zero chance the team that signs him is happy at the end of the contract.

    In fact, there’s zero chance he’s worth the contract in any one year though major league GMs and I will agree to disagree on what a $16M/year starting pitcher is.

  153. eponymous coward on December 19th, 2006 11:41 am

    PECOTA sucks at evaluating some players. It’s always hated Ichiro (every year it basically says it’s time for him to fall off of a cliff and start sucking ass now), and I suspect it always will.

    That being said, we shouldn’t be throwing babies out with bathwater.

    I would be very shocked if we pull off signing Zito. IIRC, the M’s had about 25 million to spend in the offseason. Batista + Guillen + Vidro is pushing 20 million, possibly more if Guillen hits his incentives. I suspect part of the Wave Of Unimpressive Moves is Bavasi saw the prices, asked senior management what to do, and got told ‘You have your budget, we expect you to spend it, you don’t get more”.

  154. eponymous coward on December 19th, 2006 11:44 am

    Signing Zito basically means we have to move salary (read: probably Sexson). I’m not seeing it, but hey, it could happen.

    If it DOES happen…man, what a mess for the next GM to clean up if it all washes out. We’ll be looking at some pretty awful times for a while.

  155. eponymous coward on December 19th, 2006 11:58 am

    Oh, and while I’m Corcoranizing the thread: some historical references of players who were BETTER than Vidro (as in: consistent All-Star/high finishes in MVP/actual HOF) moving to DH after some knee problems.

    Caveats apply- these are hitter’s in the 1970′s, much more of a pitcher’s era than today’s hitter friendly numbers, things change, and so on.

    Tony Oliva:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/olivato01.shtml

    Orlando Cepeda:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/cepedor01.shtml

    That doesn’t really encourage me, to be honest. It doesn’t seem that DH’ing is the equivalent of the fountain of youth- it didn’t turn those players back into MVP-caliber hitters.

    There’s Paul Molitor, I suppose:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/molitpa01.shtml

    Or Dave Winfield:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/winfida01.shtml

    except they were both better players, and even though Molitor had some injury history at a younger age, he was more durable than Vidro (and Winfield’s WAY more durable). They did spike some going to DH, I guess.

    Can anyone think of an example where of a hitter with chronic injury issues getting dramatically better (as in going back to career norms or improving on them) moving to DH WITHOUT involving Edgar? Because if we’re going to compare Vidro to players, he’s closer to Cirillo or Spiezio as far as talent and career path than Edgar, and we all know how THOSE worked out.

  156. Funkatron on December 19th, 2006 12:09 pm

    So what Bavasi is saying, is that we might have traded Soriano for a pitcher that will be ~competing~ for a job in Spring Training…but might just get shoved down to AAA or released. Nice.

  157. PositivePaul on December 19th, 2006 12:12 pm

    I suspect part of the Wave Of Unimpressive Moves is Bavasi saw the prices, asked senior management what to do, and got told ‘You have your budget, we expect you to spend it, you don’t get more”.

    There’s a term for that. It’s called “BrewVasiSter’s Millions” I think.

  158. Steve T on December 19th, 2006 12:16 pm

    I just noticed some fun on Vidro’s baseball-reference page. Similar batters? Todd Walker, John Valentin. Most similar through age 31: Carlos Baerga, Jeff Cirillo. Hmm. Baerga and Cirillo: pretty much the poster boys for the kind of player you want to keep off your team, huh?

  159. Dave Clapper on December 19th, 2006 12:50 pm

    I always liked Baerga, but that had more to do with his name being fun to say than him actually being any good. Kinda like Paniagua. (Say either in a Beavis voice. Go ahead. It’s fun!)

  160. Swungonandbelted on December 19th, 2006 12:58 pm

    I would have loved to have seen the M’s keep Snelling, but to look at it objectively, Snelling has as much of a chance if not more of never having a career in the bigs because of his health, as he does of becoming a solid player. My brother and I were talking about this over the weekend, and the name Ryan Anderson came up. I don’t know that I’m 100% against the trade now that a few days have passed, when looking at Snelling’s propensity for serious injuries. We had the opportunity to trade Anderson on more than one occasion, didn’t and then ended up releasing him and paying for his culinary school. I think that in looking at Vidro, there’s probably not much more we could have gotten for a minor league player who has had two ACL tears in the same knee, not to mention the myriad of other injuries that he has lost time to over the years. I would have loved to have seen Snelling in a M’s uniform, but I’m not convinced that he would have lasted. Part of me is glad that they tried to get something for a player with that kind of injury history, instead of hanging onto him and ending with nothing. flame on.

  161. lokiforever on December 19th, 2006 1:04 pm

    159 It’s not trading Snelling that has people in a fit of rage. It’s trading him unnecessarily. Vidro isn’t wortt the $6.0 Million a year, period. Absorbing most of his salary is a bad deal. Throwing in Snelling is insult to injury.

  162. bakomariner on December 19th, 2006 1:19 pm

    This was posted on mlbtraderumors.com:

    “Mariners In On Zito?
    Larry Stone of the Seattle Times calls the Mariners a “decided longshot” in the Barry Zito sweepstakes, but also writes of rumblings in the baseball world that they could make him an offer. Given the likely price and commitment, I don’t think a Zito signing would redeem Bill Bavasi’s offseason.

    The rotation as it stands today:

    Felix Hernandez
    Jarrod Washburn
    Miguel Batista
    Horacio Ramirez
    Jake Woods

    Basically, King Felix plus four guys who pitch to contact. The White Sox made it work in ’05 with great defense, durability, and a little luck. Will the 2007 Mariner staff have those qualities?”

    I don’t think we’re going to win the world series like the before-mentions Chi-Sox, but it’s nice to see that not everyone is so doom-and-gloom…there is always a hope…

  163. msb on December 19th, 2006 1:23 pm

    four guys who pitch to contact. The White Sox made it work in ‘05 with great defense, durability, and a little luck. Will the 2007 Mariner staff have those qualities?”

    Batista sure hopes so– he made a point of mentioning it as a big selling point for Seattle…

  164. darrylzero on December 19th, 2006 1:26 pm

    Swungonandbelted, I’m sympathetic to a certain extent with what you’re saying, but in order for it to make any sense, Vidro would have to be a worthwhile acquisition. If not, which we don’t think he will be, we’re actually getting less for Snelling than we got for Anderson by waiting until no one wanted him at all.

  165. msb on December 19th, 2006 1:35 pm

    Jerry Crasnick is still trying to push Ichiro out the Mariners’ door….

  166. Brent Overman on December 19th, 2006 1:35 pm

    What gets me is that Vidro basically had no role with the team anymore, with the Nats using Guzman at SS and moving Felipe Lopez to second.

    Why is it that our GM sees other teams players who no longer have a position to play (Vidro) as a high-valued commodity yet treats his own players whom he leaves no position to play (Carlos Guillen) as if they’re worthless, flipping for a bag of trash? How does he not view Vidro as worth nothing more than a PTBNL or cash considerations? It’s that kind of logic and mindset that will keep this team from ever improving as long as the current regime is in power.

    We did the Nats a favor for taking Vidro, yet alone giving them anything in return.

    There’s simply no rationale to this move.

  167. msb on December 19th, 2006 1:40 pm

    from Greg Johns today:

    Why is everyone so critical about the Mariners acquiring Jose Vidro? If you ask me, this is a great move. The hard-hitting second baseman provides an excellent alternative to David Bell at that position. Not to mention, with Carlos Guillen just back from knee surgery, the M’s need insurance at third base. And Vidro combining with young shortstop Alex Rodriguez? Now there’s a nice double-play combo.

  168. dw on December 19th, 2006 1:54 pm

    That’s just mean. And from a local paper with less circulation than the Seattle Weakly, too.

    PECOTA sucks at evaluating some players. It’s always hated Ichiro (every year it basically says it’s time for him to fall off of a cliff and start sucking ass now), and I suspect it always will.

    That being said, we shouldn’t be throwing babies out with bathwater.

    The problem with PECOTA is that sometimes statheads treat it too much like gospel rather than a predictive tool. When you treat it for what it is, an educated guess of what a player’s performance could be that you should balance with all the other info you know about said player, then it’s a killer tool, especially in roto league baseball. When you don’t, hoo boy.

    Case in point: I believed too much in Jeff Weaver’s PECOTA line and thought him a perfect fourth starter in my AL-only mega-sized league. It was like tying a helium balloon to my team ERA.

  169. msb on December 19th, 2006 1:57 pm

    ok, I suppose we could all be outraged Brewers fans instead … from their mailbag:

    “I’m furious that Cirillo was “let go” and signed with the Twins. Right now, this whole offseason seems like a big mess. I’m sick of the fan favorite being let go just about every year.”

  170. Evan on December 19th, 2006 2:02 pm

    June 27, 2004.

    That was the last time the M’s made a genuinely good trade. That’s 2.5 years ago.

  171. jamesllegade on December 19th, 2006 2:59 pm

    OK… so maybe he IS going to be our DH.

    Does anyone have any sort of empirical evidence about what going FT DH does to a hitters #’s? Up? (God forbid) Down? Same?

    Seems like they would go up for a middle infielder… but that is just a guess.

  172. et_blankenship on December 19th, 2006 3:27 pm

    #169 – And to think the M’s were this close to acquiring David Wright from the Mets before they agreed to that deal. Just think how different the team would be today if Wright were a Mariner. Not having to sign Beltre would have allowed Seattle to spend money on pitching . . . or a LF . . . or a 1B not named Sexson.

  173. et_blankenship on December 19th, 2006 3:28 pm

    Oops. The above post is in reference to #170.

  174. CouchGM on December 19th, 2006 3:51 pm

    So, assuming Bavasi and the Mariners decide to try to save face and desperately sign (overpay)Zito, what will they do? Like trade Sexson for prospects and pitching, right? So who’d play 1st? Platoon with Raul/Broussard/Bloomquist? I liked the Sexson for Hudson/?? trade to get (help my brain quit operating….) the 1st baseman. So now who?
    Just pretend….

  175. Mr. Egaas on December 19th, 2006 3:55 pm

    Well, on the bright side, the M’s probably have a number 2 hitter now. Not that they didn’t before in Doyle, but now they’re prone to use him there.

    Good contact guy, okay OPS, Vidro for 2 hole.

  176. et_blankenship on December 19th, 2006 4:02 pm

    There isn’t a chance in Hades that Zito signs with the Mariners. The Mets have more money, a more competitive ball club, and great direction. If I were a FA, the Mets would be at or very near the top of my list.

  177. Mr. Egaas on December 19th, 2006 4:04 pm

    Only reason Zito hasn’t signed with the Mets yet is that Boras is trying to screw them out of as much money as humanly possible. I don’t see him going anywhere else.

  178. bakomariner on December 19th, 2006 4:48 pm

    the only way zito comes to seattle is if we give him 120 for 10…which would make it almost impossible to resign ichiro next year…the free agent market sucked this year, and will next year, so we just have to hope that our veterans stay the course, the kids improve, and the boys on the farm take the next step…it’s not gonna happen this year…but we’re better than last year, and have some kids that will blossom soon…

  179. msb on December 19th, 2006 6:33 pm

    #169 – And to think the M’s were this close to acquiring David Wright from the Mets before they agreed to that deal.

    gosh, I’d like to know what that trade was.

    end of 2001 Cirillo traded to M’s at Lou’s request

    end of 2002 Lou asks to leave, the M’s negotiate with the Mets who refuse to include Wright as compensation

    Cirillo almost traded to Mets for Cedeno, declines to lift no-trade.

  180. Tak on December 19th, 2006 6:35 pm

    but again, if they do not make any decent moves soon and/or get some results, Ichiro would be very willing to move out of Seattle. I am sure there are tons of teams who would love to add a player like Ichiro on and off the field, and the Ms will not be able to outbid every single one of them.

  181. et_blankenship on December 19th, 2006 6:44 pm

    #179 – The Freddy Garcia/David Wright near-trade is mentioned briefly here, about half way down under June 27, 2004:
    http://noslenblog.blogspot.com/2004_06_27_noslenblog_archive.html

    Unfortunately, the link to the story is dead, although you might be able to search NY Post’s archives to find it. In a nutshell, the Mariners weren’t willing to meet the Mets demands, which weren’t actually that extreme; not then and especially not in hindsight.

  182. CouchGM on December 19th, 2006 7:52 pm

    Unless I see some evidence of sound decision making, I’m guessing we need to wait for blind, dumb luck.

    #23

    ‘Blind’ and ‘dumb’ we got….

  183. CouchGM on December 19th, 2006 8:14 pm

    Also…Who’s “Doyle”? Save me the research…

  184. DMZ on December 19th, 2006 8:21 pm

    What, are your fingers broken? Do your research.

  185. frenchonion on December 20th, 2006 9:41 am

    #183:

    Welcome to USSM.

  186. Evan on December 20th, 2006 10:34 am

    And now with the Jays reportedly shopping Rios (which is dumb – they need Rios), he would have been a better target for trade than Vidro. Doyle and Fruto for Rios would have been a far better deal than Vidro’s trade.

    Gods this is frustrating.

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