2007 AL West Rough Comparison Chart

DMZ · December 20, 2006 at 7:25 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

For your enjoyment and discussion of the relative merits of these teams, I decided to throw up this depth chart I was sketching out today. I’m sure after posting this I’ll immediately start to fix it, and there are a number of issues I don’t think are entirely sorted out yet – like in LAoA, I put Rivera in the field and Anderson at DH, but that may be flipped. Likewise, I’m guessing McPherson finally takes over at third, and Figgins returns to being a useful version of Bloomquist, but that may be premature. And — well, you’ll see. I’m also neglecting bench players, etc, and the rotations/bullpens are shots in the dark.

Seattle Oakland LA of A Texas
C Johjima Kendall Napoli Laird
1B Sexson Johnson Morales Teixeira
2B Lopez Ellis Kendrick Kinsler
SS Betancourt Crosby Cabrera Young
3B Beltre Chavez McPherson Blalock
LF Ibanez Swisher Rivera Wilkerson
CF Ichiro! Kotsay Matthews Lofton
RF Guillen Bradley Guerrero Cruz (Cat?)
DH Vidro Piazza Anderson (?) Catalanotto
SP Hernandez Harden Lackey Milwood
SP Washburn Loaiza Santana Padilla
SP Batista Haren Weaver Tejeda
SP Ramirez Blanton Escobar Volquez
SP Baek/Woods Halsey (?) Saunders/? Rheinecker
CL Putz Street Rodriguez Gagne
RP Mateo Duchsherer Shields Otsuka
RP Sherrill Embree Oliver Mahay
RP O’Flaherty Flores Speier Bauer
RP Green Calero Carrasco Benoit
RP Baek/Woods/Wood/Huber Gaudin Resop/Bootcheck/? Rupe/etc

I feel like I’ve been too close to the team’s bad moves: this division’s going to be competitive, and even a team like the M’s where it’s extremely unlikely they break 85 wins, might find themselves in the hunt.


75 Responses to “2007 AL West Rough Comparison Chart”

  1. lonestarball on December 21st, 2006 11:12 am

    Just a few quick comments/responses, Dave…

    I agree that 473 major league appearances brings up sample size issues in terms of performance. However, part of the justification for my position on Kinsler was also his minor league performance, which, given his age and level, was consistent with the way he hit in the majors in 2006…his minor league performance suggests, to me, that his 2006 performance in the majors is a fairly accurate reflection of his abilities.

    Defensively, I think you are right about him being stiff, and that probably would have led to him being moved off of shortstop anyway. I think the footwork issues are something that will improve as he plays more second base, particularly on the pivot and on quick throws, where he seemed to have some issues in 2006.

    I am a big Kinsler guy, so I may be overestimating him, or underestimating the defensive edge Hill and some others have on him. I think he’s going to end up being a better player than Michael Young, though.

  2. Frozenropers on December 21st, 2006 11:14 am

    #49: As far as comparing Kinsler’s road splits to Lopez’s Home splits.

    Lopez plays in a park that is extreme against right handed hitters. Kinsler’s road stats “should” essentially give you a park neutral result. So like you say, FWIW, I’d say its not a very worthwhile comparison.

    If you wanted to compare something more closer to park neutral results (given the small sample sizes we are dealing with) you’d compare Kinsler’s road stats with Lopez’s road stats, where Lopez clearly has the advantage. However I will caviot that Lopez does get a bit of a benefit from having his road stats include games in TBIA while Kinsler’s includes games at Safeco. That said, each players results in the opposing teams home stadiums were pretty bad last year, negatiting the overall impact.

  3. Dave on December 21st, 2006 11:23 am

    I am a big Kinsler guy, so I may be overestimating him, or underestimating the defensive edge Hill and some others have on him. I think he’s going to end up being a better player than Michael Young, though.

    Sure, me too. But I’m on record as saying Michael Young is probably the most overrated player in the game, so that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.

  4. ConorGlassey on December 21st, 2006 12:03 pm

    Dave – what is your opinion on Kendrick?

  5. MarinerDan on December 21st, 2006 12:08 pm


    That’s the way I see it.

  6. Grizz on December 21st, 2006 12:08 pm

    From Kinsler’s PECOTA card, his equivalents line for 2005 at Oklahoma City (595 PA):

    .245/.309/.400 EqA .248

  7. MarinerDan on December 21st, 2006 12:11 pm

    And from Lopez’s PECOTA card, his equivalents line for 2005 at Tacoma:

    .288/.315/.448 EqA .254

  8. Grizz on December 21st, 2006 12:13 pm

    Advantage, Lopez

  9. Manzanillos Cup on December 21st, 2006 12:31 pm

    52 – I totally agree with all of that. I guess what I was trying to say was that even though Kinsler sucked half the time, so did Lopez.

    I haven’t studied park factors and their application to individual players, but the Lopez’s home split last year seems misleading, in terms of how people expect Safeco to hamper righties. In 2006 he was quite the groundball/infield fly hitter, and that wasn’t Safeco’s fault (was it?). Like Lonestar implied earlier, I don’t think you can just apply park factors to stats without taking into account a hitter’s tendencies and style.

    This goes back to why after this year I dropped my lofty expectations for Lopez. I wanted to see a hint that those minors doubles numbers meant something, but his groundball tendencies (Hargrove induced?) and short home runs really made me question if dealing with his low OBP and below average defense is worth it.

  10. Dave on December 21st, 2006 12:34 pm

    Dave – what is your opinion on Kendrick?

    I heart Howie Kendrick. He’s the best second baseman in baseball in a couple of years.

  11. Graham on December 21st, 2006 12:35 pm

    Actually, I’m pretty sure that Lopez’s second half grounder binge was coaching’s fault.

  12. Manzanillos Cup on December 21st, 2006 12:38 pm

    58 – Advantage Lopez, in 2005. You can prove almost anything with selective sampling.

  13. Mat on December 21st, 2006 12:57 pm

    Without wanting to say anything overall about Kinsler and Lopez, I will say that a six-point difference in translated EQA for one season is hardly worth saying either player was better than the other. It’s a statistical dead heat.

  14. zackr on December 21st, 2006 2:01 pm

    oh my effing god

    go over to espn.com and check out the ‘what’s ahead for zito and mariners’ video clip. Bavasi gets REAMED about Vidro.

  15. msb on December 21st, 2006 2:13 pm

    well, it is Keith Law again.

  16. Mr. Egaas on December 21st, 2006 2:29 pm

    Ichiro, Felix, or Putz goes down for anything over two weeks and the M’s are flat out screwed.

  17. dkulich44 on December 21st, 2006 2:37 pm

    Anyone hear about the Lions fans organized protest? I doubt it will do anything, but if it does, maybe we could do the same. Basically, they plan to get up with 8:57 left in the 2nd quarter, go to the main atrium and chant.

  18. msb on December 21st, 2006 2:45 pm

    how will that be different from any other Lions game?

  19. true_slicky on December 21st, 2006 2:58 pm

    DMZ, I share similar tidings over on my blog. the one thing I wanted to find more than anything under my tree this off-season was a front-line starter. sadly, it was not to be. alas….

  20. Zonis on December 21st, 2006 2:58 pm

    Here’s the projected A’s roster, barring trades, signings, ect…

    C1 Kendall
    1B Johnson
    2B Ellis
    3B Chavez
    SS Crosby
    LF Swisher
    CF Kotsay
    RF Bradley
    DH Piazza

    C2 Melhuse
    IF Scutaro
    OF Kielty
    3B Perez
    OF Goleski (DL/R5)

    SP Harden
    SP Haren
    SP Loaiza
    SP Blanton
    SP Kennedy

    CL Street
    RP Duchscherer
    RP Calero
    RP Embree
    RP Gaudin
    RP Saarloos
    RP Marshall (R5) / Flores

  21. Mr. Egaas on December 21st, 2006 4:36 pm

    Good Beane move today:

    Invite Durazo to Spring Training.

    Why not? Guy is tearing up the Mexican league.

    Low risk, high reward…

  22. Tak on December 21st, 2006 6:10 pm

    64 – makes me want to cry

    Iguchi is a VERY solid 2B, not many guys can provide that kind of consistency offensively and defensively. He is my idea of the ideal #2 spot guy, he knows his job.

    And yeah, he did that amazing wacky throw to first base :O

  23. JeffS on December 21st, 2006 8:45 pm

    71. Durazo is a high reward guy? Since when? More like he’s a low-risk signing for a chance of helping the big league club if Piazza goes down.

  24. Nathan on December 23rd, 2006 3:41 am

    73. In his last full season (2004) Durazo put up a .321/.396/.523 line (EqA .303). He had TJ surgery in July 2005. If he’s going to recover (not a given, certainly, but a possibility), it’ll be this season, and he’ll only be 33. If he gets back to what he did 3 years ago, I’d call that a pretty high reward.

  25. scareduck on December 23rd, 2006 12:50 pm

    on Kotchman: that may be the team’s direction, but I can’t imagine that it’s as sure as that. I’ve followed Kotchman for years, and while we can talk about whether it’s the injuries or not, just just hasn’t hit like a top offensive prospect in a long time. Have the Angels made any statements that the job’s his to lose? Because while I haven’t seen any forecasts, I would bet PECOTA etc are a lot more optimistic about Morales than Kotchman.

    He hasn’t hit like that because he hasn’t been healthy to do it. Mono isn’t a debilitating disease, and Kotch has always had good OBP’s, something other Angels hitters haven’t had. His downside looks like Mark Grace.

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