ZIPS projects the M’s
In the spirit of Derek’s recent look at the team, Dan Szymborski takes a crack with his ZIPS projection system. Like all projection systems, it has its quirks, but it holds its own with more notable systems like PECOTA, and it has the added benefit of being free and currently available, so it gets its own thread.
It’s not the gospel truth, but there are some interesting things here. Keep in mind that it doesn’t attempt to project playing time, so all the statlines are based on the assumption of the player playing a full season. Obviously, Yung-Chi Chen won’t get 488 at-bats in the majors this year and we’re not giving Cibney Bello 137 innings to work with.
Richie Sexson: .246/.336/.478. For $14 million. Ugh.
Jose Vidro: .279/.344/.382. As a DH.
Jose Guillen: .260/.327/.449. With good defense in right field, this makes him a good deal.
Felix Hernandez: 199 IP, 3.71 ERA, 64 BB, 175 K.
Horacio Ramirez: 142 IP, 5.13 ERA, 50 BB, 59 K
Robert Rohrbaugh: 138 IP, 5.15 ERA, 42 BB, 76 K
ZIPS agrees with the general outrage on the blog lately – the two offseason trades have been total disasters, and this team isn’t any better than it was last year, despite being older, more expensive, and cashing in multiple young players.