Future Forty Update
Since we’re now in 2007, I have released the offseason update of the Future Forty, giving us a look at where the organization stands in terms of young talent that they can build around. The picture isn’t as bright as it was six months ago, as the subtractions of Chris Snelling, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Francisco Cruceta, and Emiliano Fruto have thinned out a significant portion of the talent pool that could have helped the Mariners in the near future.
As you can see from even a quick scan of the updated version, the strength of the system is now predominantly long term projects who are years from reaching Safeco Field. Seven players are categorized as “Projects – Projected Regulars, Several Years Away”, and of that group, only Ryan Feierabend is legally able to drink. It’s a talented group with quite a bit of potential, but they are so far from the majors, it’s nearly impossible to project when they’ll reach the big show. While the organization now has more guys who I rate as 7+ in the potential category than any time in recent memory, they also have an overwhelming amount of players who rank as a 3 or less in the present value category. Of the 40 guys listed, 28 of them – 70 percent – have a present value below 4, meaning they’re incapable of serving any useful role in the major leagues right now.
There is talent in the organization, but the ticket buyers at Safeco won’t see any of it for years. The thought of a rotation with guys like Felix, Ryan Feierabend, Brandon Morrow, Tony Butler, and Chris Tillman may be exciting to dream about, but these same unfilfilled fantasies have been lived out by Mariner fans for years. Remember when the Anderson-Meche-Pineiro-Heaverlo rotation was supposed to carry the M’s to a dynasty? Unfortunately, we’re returning to the days of putting the future of the franchise on the shoulders of 19-year-old pitchers.
When we look at the positives of the Bill Bavasi regime, we have to point to the amount of talent that has been brought into the system in the past year. In the past 12 months, the Future Forty has added new acquisitions such as Brandon Morrow, Carlos Triunfel, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, Alex Liddi, Greg Halman, and Mario Martinez. The M’s spent 2006 stocking up on high ceiling youngsters. Whoever is running the team in 2010 should be appreciative of their efforts on that front, at least.
As always, you can use this thread for any minor league questions or prospect conversation.
Thanks Dave. Love the Future Forty.
My first question regards Chris Tillman. I know last year you were pretty negative on him, largely due to his immaturity and off-the-field conduct. Has your perception of those issues changed? Has he been showing dedication and maturity (I guess last season, since he’s been in the off season for awhile now)? What is your current best-guess prognostication for how he turns out?
What the bigger risk with moving high-A to High Desert: the FO buying into the distorted offensive numbers, or the blows to the young pitchers’ self-confidence that is this bandbox of a park?
I’m negative about his personality, work ethic, and general approach to life. The kid has a good arm, and there’s significant potential there, so I’m not down on his abilities. But so much of pitching is mental preparation and hard work, and in his first year as a professional, he didn’t show that he was a major leaguer in either of those areas. There’s a long line of guys with good arms who never fulfilled their potential because they lacked the intelligence or desire to become good pitchers. Tillman has a lot of growing up to do.
There’s no real best-guess for guys like him. There are many different possibilities for what he could become, and they’re basically all up to him. He could become the new Justin Jones, flame out, and be essentially worthless by age 22, or he could buckle down, dedicate himself to the game, and be Jeremy Bonderman, hitting the majors at age 20. There are also many shades of possibilities between those two extremes.
All we can say with any kind of reliability is that he has a good arm and he has a long ways to go before he’s a major league pitcher.
A few quick questions:
*What have you heard about Doug Salinas’ stuff? Does he have any kind of third pitch at all at this point?
*Last year, Bavasi publicly said that the scouting department was targeting college pitchers with their top pick in the draft. Obviously it’s too early to start thinking about specific names, but is there a sense that the department is specifically targeting a certain type of player to address an organizational need again?
*I see you’ve downgraded Tui. How much more of this before he’s completely kicked to the curb as a prospect?
What the bigger risk with moving high-A to High Desert: the FO buying into the distorted offensive numbers, or the blows to the young pitchers’ self-confidence that is this bandbox of a park?
The destruction of the young arms. I hate the move to High Desert, and I’m praying that they get out of there in two years. It’s barely baseball when you’re playing in that park, and it could have a legitimate negative impact on the way the players approach the game.
Whups – my bad, I’ve got another one.
In the BA chat on Mariners’ prospects, John Manuel said Triunfel might be advanced enough to start in Wisconsin. If a source other than the insanely aggressive Ms’ development people is saying it’s not a completely unreasonable idea, is it not incredibly likely that the Ms will be even more bullish and start him in fullseason?
*What have you heard about Doug Salinas’ stuff? Does he have any kind of third pitch at all at this point?
Not a usable one, no. He pitches off his fastball and just varies locations and speeds at the moment.
Last year, Bavasi publicly said that the scouting department was targeting college pitchers with their top pick in the draft. Obviously it’s too early to start thinking about specific names, but is there a sense that the department is specifically targeting a certain type of player to address an organizational need again?
Last year was pretty easy to target college pitching, because it fit the Mariners needs perfectly, they selected #5 overall, and it was a deep draft for college arms. This year, they’re picking 11th and there’s no consensus position of strength this year, and picking towards the middle of the first round, it’s harder to project who you’ll be picking from. I would think that college pitchers will again be high on the list, but they’ll scout a wider range of players this year.
I see you’ve downgraded Tui. How much more of this before he’s completely kicked to the curb as a prospect?
2007 is his make or break year, as weird as that sounds at his young age. I’ve tried to find someone, anyone, who failed as spectacularly as Tui did and then still went on to have a major league career, and I just can’t. If he doesn’t have a significant bounce back season, it’s almost certainly a sign that he’s just not a major league hitter.
Who is the first pitcher to get the call if the Mariners need a starter? The cupboard looks pretty thin at AA and AAA.
We’ve now seen the pro debuts of Luke Hochevar (KC), Greg Reynolds (Colorado), Brad Lincoln (Pittsburgh), Brandon Morrow (Seattle), Andrew Miller (Detroit), and Tim Lincecum (SF).
Would your ranking of these guys change at all from your pre-draft thoughts? Have we learned anything interesting about them?
In the BA chat on Mariners’ prospects, John Manuel said Triunfel might be advanced enough to start in Wisconsin. If a source other than the insanely aggressive Ms’ development people is saying it’s not a completely unreasonable idea, is it not incredibly likely that the Ms will be even more bullish and start him in fullseason?
Questions from you are always welcome, Jon.
I wouldn’t call it incredibly likely – I’d say its possible. If the organization had more depth at SS in the lower levels, I’d call it unlikely, but he does have one advantage that there aren’t any other significant SS prospects ticketed for Wisconsin this year. Chris Minaker isn’t going to hold anyone back, that’s for sure.
Speaking of minor league franchise moves, what’s the hitting/pitching environment like in W. Tennessee? Will it have any impact on the M’s tendency to hoard pitching prospects at Double A?
Who is the first pitcher to get the call if the Mariners need a starter? The cupboard looks pretty thin at AA and AAA.
The loser of the Cha Baek/Jake Woods battle.
We’ve now seen the pro debuts of Luke Hochevar (KC), Greg Reynolds (Colorado), Brad Lincoln (Pittsburgh), Brandon Morrow (Seattle), Andrew Miller (Detroit), and Tim Lincecum (SF).
Would your ranking of these guys change at all from your pre-draft thoughts? Have we learned anything interesting about them?
I’d still take Miller over any of them, and I’m sure I still like Tim Lincecum less than everyone else does, but there’s no denying the eye-popping numbers he put up in his pro debut. Based on what we know six months later, it’d be tough to justify picking Morrow over Lincecum again, though I still think they’re pretty similar in value.
Also, I wouldn’t have believed it was possible, but Greg Reynolds was a worse #2 pick than even I had imagined. The Rockies just botched that draft pick completely.
Speaking of minor league franchise moves, what’s the hitting/pitching environment like in W. Tennessee? Will it have any impact on the M’s tendency to hoard pitching prospects at Double A?
West. Tennessee is a slight pitchers park, but nowhere near as extreme as Woolf Stadium in San Antonio. It should play fairly neutral, but I don’t see it having much of an impact on how the M’s handle their pitchers.
BTW, thanks for doing this Dave. It’s one of my favorite aspects of this site.
Maybe it’s nitpicking, but if Morrow and Feirabend both have ETAs of 2008, why is one “close to majors” and the other “several years away”? Is there some subjective comment in there that I’m missing?
Maybe it’s nitpicking, but if Morrow and Feirabend both have ETAs of 2008, why is one “close to majors†and the other “several years away� Is there some subjective comment in there that I’m missing?
Morrow could be pitching well in the majors this summer, especially if the club decides to bring him up as a reliever. Feierabend isn’t major league ready, and probably won’t be until next year.
The ETAs are more of a guideline than anything else.
In light of the (ahem) trades, do you see O’Flaherty and Huber both coming out of Spring Training with the team?
If Adam Jones comes out of the gate repeating his AAA performance from June-on last year, does he get bumped up to a 9 in the reward column?
Apologies for the double-post, but I wanted to echo the thanks. I always really look forward to FF updates and comment threads. Great work, Dave, and much appreciated.
Also, what do you think of the futures of Bazardo and Jimenez? It seems like they get less press than most of the other pitchers at a similar level on this list.
If Adam Jones comes out of the gate repeating his AAA performance from June-on last year, does he get bumped up to a 9 in the reward column?
Probably not. To get a 9, I’d want to see him take a leap in defensive performance. Right now, he’s a mediocre center fielder that we think has the talent to be really good, but projecting improvements in things like instincts and route running is not easy. If he starts tracking the ball better and taking good routes to the ball, that would make him a plus defender. If he can make that step and continue to hit, he’ll end up as a 9.
In light of the (ahem) trades, do you see O’Flaherty and Huber both coming out of Spring Training with the team?
Yes to Huber, no to O’Flaherty.
Also, what do you think of the futures of Bazardo and Jimenez? It seems like they get less press than most of the other pitchers at a similar level on this list.
Both are fringe major league relievers. I don’t value either one very highly. If Bazardo’s velocity ever comes back, that might be a different story, but it’s been several years now, so we have to assume he’s not going to sit at 97 anymore.
Dave,
As a follow-up to your last post (#7), isn’t the lack of good comps for Tui at this point at least partly related to his crazy promotions? If Tui was in any other organization, he would have never made it to AA in the first place. While he didn’t develop as much power as people had hoped, he wasn’t absolutely brutal (.185/.259/.218) until he moved to AA. The lack of good examples of players struggling so badly could have more to do with the fact that few organizations would push a similar player to AA so quickly.
It is always tough to deal in hypotheticals, but imagine how much different our conception of him would be if he hadn’t gone to AA. In the first half, he hit .306/.359/.379 at Inland Empire. I am not sure what the average age is for the Cal League, but BP listed the average at at High A as 23.5. So Tui was holding his own despite playing against mostly older competition. Even if he didn’t improve at all over the course of the season (which, given his situation is probably unlikely), his 2006 season would not have been a huge bust.
I haven’t looked into this a whole lot, but Ryan Sweeney is a good prospect who had a similar pattern of development. Sweeney hit .283/.342/.379 in A+ at age 19. Like Tui, he was promoted pretty agressively, and, although people always projected that he would hit for plus power, he didn’t really start to turn that tool into production until last year. Sweeney isn’t an elite prospect, but he is certainly a good prospect.
If you disregard Tui’s performance at AA, and pretend that he repeated his line in IE for the entire season, then it is much easier to find comparable players. I normally wouldn’t suggest disregarding a half season of numbers, but, again, Tui would never have been in that situation in the first place in any other organization.
The M’s pattern of hyper-aggressive promotions makes comps much more difficult. Both Tui and Jeff Clement were promoted to levels they had no business reaching last year, and, predictably, they both struggled. But with other guys, like Adam Jones, it is still tough to compare them with players from other organizations. When you push players that hard, they are far less likely to put up the gaudy stats that people look for.
Whatever happened to Sam Hays?
How would you rank the following hitters in terms of best upside potential and what do you see as their upper ceilings: Liddi, Halman, and Martinez
Dave, you probably do not think that either Chen or Navarro will be any terrific shakes in the majors, but, between the two, which one would be a more valuable asset to a major league club. Both are middle infielders, Navarro is a little younger, and I do not know if Chen can play SS. Can they learn to play the outfield? Any chance either of them displaces WFB by 2007 or 2008.
As a follow-up to your last post (#7), isn’t the lack of good comps for Tui at this point at least partly related to his crazy promotions? If Tui was in any other organization, he would have never made it to AA in the first place. While he didn’t develop as much power as people had hoped, he wasn’t absolutely brutal (.185/.259/.218) until he moved to AA. The lack of good examples of players struggling so badly could have more to do with the fact that few organizations would push a similar player to AA so quickly.
I didn’t look for a good comparison – I simply looked for any major leaguer who had ever performed that poorly in the minors. I couldn’t find one. It was a historically horrible performance, and one that can’t be waved away with “well, he shouldn’t have been there”. Major league hitters, even when promoted too aggressively, aren’t that bad.
The Ryan Sweeney comparison doesn’t work at all. While he’s yet to show the power some expected, he’s never had a bad season – he hit .283/.342/.379 in the Carolina League as a 19-year-old, a much more impressive performance than Tui’s half season in the Cal League, then got better when he moved to Double-A at age 20 and continued to improve after getting to Triple-A at age 21.
Even looking at other players who were promoted rapidly in spite of mediocre performances, you won’t find anyone who failed like Tui did. The only guy who I could even begin to find as a positive comparison would be Travis Fryman:
.234/.297/.294 in Rookie Ball at 18
.234/.289/.294 in Low-A at age 19
.265/.306/.404 in Double-A at age 20
.257/.295/.428 in Triple-A at age 21
.297/.348/.470 in Majors at age 21
Fryman was horrible in the low minors, but skipped high-A and actually improved when he got to Double-A prematurely. He then took another step forward at age 21, reaching the majors and hitting better than he ever had in his life.
That’s why I’m saying this is a make or break year for Tui. If he doesn’t take a step forward, the experience excuse goes out the window. He has to actually show some talent this year.
You can’t pretend Tui’s collossal failure never happened. It did, and then he went to the Arizona Fall League and was equally bad. The guy hasn’t hit since he was in Peoria, and he’s got about 500 more at-bats before we can officially write him off as a bust.
Whatever happened to Sam Hays?
He retired.
How would you rank the following hitters in terms of best upside potential and what do you see as their upper ceilings: Liddi, Halman, and Martinez.
Halman, Liddi, Martinez. Obviously, though, Martinez is just 17 and we really know little about him.
Dave, you probably do not think that either Chen or Navarro will be any terrific shakes in the majors, but, between the two, which one would be a more valuable asset to a major league club. Both are middle infielders, Navarro is a little younger, and I do not know if Chen can play SS. Can they learn to play the outfield? Any chance either of them displaces WFB by 2007 or 2008.
Chen can barely play second – he’d be a disaster at shortstop. Both are utility players in the majors. Chen can hit a little more and field a lot less. I’d rather have Navarro, but they’re similar in value.
Halman in High Desert? Is the team really going to rush him that quickly after only 100 short-season at-bats?
Halman in High Desert? Is the team really going to rush him that quickly after only 100 short-season at-bats?
Potentially. If any of the young outfielders are going to get moved ahead of the pack to help reduce the glut of outfielders in the low minors, it will be Halman.
True or false: Tony Butler will be the best M’s lefty starter since Randy Johnson. (After I wrote that, I thought about Jamie Moyer, but still…)
Dave,
One more question:
What do you think about Anthony Varvaro?
What do you think about Anthony Varvaro?
He’s still a project – his velocity and movement aren’t back to where they were at St. Johns, and the M’s were very careful about his workload last summer. If he can get back to what he was, he’s one of the better power arms in the organization, and TJ surgery has a good success rate, so there’s hope, but he’s several years away.
True or false: Tony Butler will be the best M’s lefty starter since Randy Johnson. (After I wrote that, I thought about Jamie Moyer, but still…)
Moyer makes it false. But Butler’s got a chance to be pretty good.
I know almost nothing about Carlos Triunfel. Can you let us know where he came from, his strenghts/weaknesses, and how you see him developing? I recognize he is VERY young, but I’m wondering what your take on him is.
http://ussmariner.com/2006/09/22/carlos-truinfel/
Thanks. Don’t know how I missed that post on Truinfel (it pays to search before asking). May I ask the same questions about Mario Martinez?
Just as a quick note, in case anyone gets confused – his last name is Tri-un-fel, but we had the u and the i inverted when he signed, and mistakenly referred to him as Truinfel in the aftermath of his acquisition. It is indeed Triunfel, however.
Martinez just turned 17 two months ago, and was one of the top hitters signed out of Venezuela this year. The M’s gave him a $600,000 bonus. Beyond that, the same vague comments apply – the M’s like his talent and potential, but until he gets in some actual game action, no one really knows what kind of player he is.
This is kind of off-subject, but [deleted, off-topic]
That never gets old.
Quickest way to get deleted is to start a post with “this is off-topic” or something of that nature.
It’s like walking up to a cop and saying “what I have in my pocket is illegal, but..”
Where do you think Morrow will pitch to start this year?
I’m not sure if you’d consider Morse a prospect. Probably not due to his age and length of time he’s spent in the majors. If the mariners actually tried to develop him, do you think he’d turn into anything interesting? I’m not quite sure how I feel about him but I don’t think he’s bad. He just doesn’t seem very useful on our roster.
Also, Blackley. Whats up with him? Is he going to AAA next year? In your opinion, has he gotten much of his stuff back or is it gone? I noticed it looks like you aren’t expecting much.
It’s a tossup, really, between High Desert and West Tenn. If they had stayed in Inland Empire, I’d vote for the Cal League, but it’s easy to see them wanting to get pitchers out of there as quickly as possible, and Morrow’s got the stuff to succeed in Double-A.
I’m not sure if you’d consider Morse a prospect. Probably not due to his age and length of time he’s spent in the majors. If the mariners actually tried to develop him, do you think he’d turn into anything interesting? I’m not quite sure how I feel about him but I don’t think he’s bad. He just doesn’t seem very useful on our roster.
Morse is on the list as a potential role player. Basically, his chance at a major league career is as the RH portion of a platoon while playing LF/1B. He might have a year where he hits .280/.340/.450 and is kinda sorta useful, but he’s nothing special.
Also, Blackley. Whats up with him? Is he going to AAA next year? In your opinion, has he gotten much of his stuff back or is it gone? I noticed it looks like you aren’t expecting much.
He’ll spend the year in Tacoma. The shoulder problems nuked his velocity, and it’s unlikely to ever come back. At 82-86, he’s not a major leaguer. If he can get back to hitting 88-90, he could have a career as a 5th starter or long reliever in the John Halama mold. But that’s probably a longshot at this point.
Is there any real concern over Clement’s hitting as of late? He seemed to struggle at the end of the season, as well as in Hawaii.
I heard rumors the M’s sent people over to Hawaii to keep a close eye on him?
What is the scouting report on Justin Thomas (pitches, velocity, command, etc.)? Will his groundball tendencies hold up? His numbers were decent but nothing special for a 22 year old in A ball, but is there much room to grow?
Is there any real concern over Clement’s hitting as of late? He seemed to struggle at the end of the season, as well as in Hawaii.
I wouldn’t call it real concern – the M’s sent some coaches to Hawaii to make sure he wasn’t getting into any bad habits, but everyone still believes Clement is going to hit. He was tearing up Double-A before the injury, so this isn’t a Tui-like case where we have to go back years to find some actual good performance.
What is the scouting report on Justin Thomas (pitches, velocity, command, etc.)? Will his groundball tendencies hold up? His numbers were decent but nothing special for a 22 year old in A ball, but is there much room to grow?
Thomas throws an 88-92 MPH two-seam fastball that he keeps down in the zone, and will occassionally elevate a four-seamer to get up to 93 or 94, but that’s pretty rare. He’s got solid command of his fastball and a decent slider, but the change-up is a work in progress. The M’s like him, and he’s a bit unheralded in the system.
Dave:
1. Is there any salvaging Casey Craig at this point?
2. We’ve made a lot of fun of Michael Garciaparra over the last year or two, but, really, what’s his value now? While his numbers at Triple-A looked superficially impressive, is there any depth in them that could translate positively to the majors? Could he sustain a credible walk rate/OBP in baseball, or would he be forced to substantively hit the pitchers he worked for walks and flare singles last year? And how do you evaluate his defense?
Is there a way to pull up previous Future Forties? I’d be really interested in seeing how players have turned out over the years.
1. Is there any salvaging Casey Craig at this point?
Sure. He could change organizations, undergo a personality transplant, and convince his new bosses to focus on his decent enough hitting and not the fact that he’s abbrassive, annoying, and generally terrible to be around.
2. We’ve made a lot of fun of Michael Garciaparra over the last year or two, but, really, what’s his value now? While his numbers at Triple-A looked superficially impressive, is there any depth in them that could translate positively to the majors? Could he sustain a credible walk rate/OBP in baseball, or would he be forced to substantively hit the pitchers he worked for walks and flare singles last year? And how do you evaluate his defense?
He’s a bench player in the making. The complete lack of power will kill his walkrate in the majors, and he’s not good enoguh defensively to play SS if he doesn’t hit. So, he’s a second baseman without any power and an average glove. Think Nick Punto or something.
Is there a way to pull up previous Future Forties? I’d be really interested in seeing how players have turned out over the years.
There’s no archive, unfortunately. I should probably start doing that, but for the past few years, I’ve just saved the new versions over the old ones.
Isn’t Travis Chick no longer with the organization?
“Think Nick Punto or something”
I’d rather not.
There seem to be some older versions of the future forties on the wayback machine. Lets see if this works:
51: Thanks. I thought of that soon after posting my question and went to check it out. I was just about to post it, but you saved me the arduous link-making process. The geek in me wants to graph various players’ progressions over time. Some of the early Lopez comments are fun, as is seeing how quickly Betencourt moved up the ranks.
I’m really really not trying to be mean spirited about this. I think Dave’s work is great and I appreciate it a ton. Reading a few of those old comments are pretty funny though.
Like this one on Mark Lowe in Feb ’05 (Which at the time everyone who knew anything would probably agree with, and the rest of us said “Who is Mark Lowe?”)
Thanks for the hard work Dave, like I said I just found it funny.
Thanks Dave. A couple of follow-ups: Is the risk with Kahn that, like many hard-throwing relief prospects, he never improves his control enough to succeed in the majors, or is there something else going on there? Where would you have placed Fruto?
Speaking of salvage jobs, is there any hope for Jeff Flaig or is he a complete flameout?
I motion for a Back to the Future post where you look back at all the future 40′s and compare and contrast.
So it doesn’t look like the M’s have any kind of impact bat they could bring up in case of injury. Is there someone like that lurking that I don’t see?
Dave – It’s no secret that I like the guy and I probably asked this last time around, but how far out of the Future Forty is Doug Fister? His numbers at Fresno State weren’t amazing, but his pro debut was impressive – even if it was mostly in relief, to protect his arm (35 K & 11 BB over 40 IP with a 57.3 GB%). I know he doesn’t have the raw stuff that some of the pitchers on the list have, but he’s a big kid with a good head on his shoulders that I think could be a sleeper.
Flaig is example 1A in why you shouldn’t draft high school hitters coming off major injuries when they have no skills beyond hitting. He’s not a prospect.
Thanks Dave. A couple of follow-ups: Is the risk with Kahn that, like many hard-throwing relief prospects, he never improves his control enough to succeed in the majors, or is there something else going on there? Where would you have placed Fruto?
Kahn’s command is lousy, but part of that is because he’s got a lot of movement on his breaking ball. He needs to harness it before he becomes a major leaguer, but his mechanics make that tougher than it sounds.
Dave – It’s no secret that I like the guy and I probably asked this last time around, but how far out of the Future Forty is Doug Fister? His numbers at Fresno State weren’t amazing, but his pro debut was impressive – even if it was mostly in relief, to protect his arm (35 K & 11 BB over 40 IP with a 57.3 GB%). I know he doesn’t have the raw stuff that some of the pitchers on the list have, but he’s a big kid with a good head on his shoulders that I think could be a sleeper.
He didn’t get much consideration. If I was going to go with a tall ground ball guy, I’d go with Mackolio. Fister just doesn’t have the upside necessary to be a real prospect. His best case scenario is still as a middle reliever.
So it doesn’t look like the M’s have any kind of impact bat they could bring up in case of injury. Is there someone like that lurking that I don’t see?
Not really. If Bryan LaHair’s two week power spike is sustainable, then he’d qualify, but I don’t think it is.
Dave – I know you go to a lot of minor league games in NC, but how do you keep up with all of the Mariners’ prospects so closely? Is it mostly through talking to scouts, etc. or do you actually get to see video footage throughout the season?
Dave – I know you go to a lot of minor league games in NC, but how do you keep up with all of the Mariners’ prospects so closely? Is it mostly through talking to scouts, etc. or do you actually get to see video footage throughout the season?
A little of both. I have some friends who have shared some video footage of guys I haven’t seen in person, but that’s mostly for guys in the Cal League and the Northwest League. The guys who were in Wisconsin last year, I had to rely on conversations with scouts and friends who live in MWL cities.
I’m also planning a spring training trip this year, so I’ll see some guys there, too.
Dave, How about a USSM feed east in Jackson in combination with a Diamond Jaxx game, for further discussion of prospects, of course.
Dave, How about a USSM feed east in Jackson in combination with a Diamond Jaxx game, for further discussion of prospects, of course.
I’ve thought about making the trip to Jackson, but the roster would have to be more impressive than I’m projecting for me to get inspired. It’s a 9 hour one way trip from Winston-Salem, and right now, W. Tenn looks to be the least interesting team in the M’s system for ’07.
However, since they’re in the Southern League, they’ll be making the trip to Zebulon to play the Carolina Mudcats in August, so you can bet I’ll be at several of those games.
Yeah, I’ll certainly have to catch them when they come to play here in Knoxville.
Dave,
Anybody interesting going to be playing in Everett this year? It’s about 5 minutes from my house, but I don’t go to many games because I never really know who to keep an eye on.
I still catch a game or two just because baseball, a summer day, hot dog and a beer are always good. But it would be more fun if I had some players to really focus on..
If I may – It’s hard to say who’s headed to Everett at this point. It’s quite likely there will be players drafted this year who get assigned to Everett, especially high school kids, and that’s usually why I go out there. I love seeing the pro debut of guys and then catching them again at Tacoma a few years later, it makes me happy.
What Derek said. There’s no way to predict the Everett roster this far out, as its almost all guys who get drafted in June and roster filler types, plus an occassional international kid who gets pushed faster than you’d expect.
Projecting Tacoma’s roster in January is hard. Projecting Everett’s is impossible.
man, there are people born in the 90′s (trunfiel) that are on the future 40? i had already seen my best days on the baseball diamond by then!!
i’m getting damn old (27).
Ah, to be 27 again.
Anyhoo, what is your sense on Wladimir Balentien’s future with the M’s? I know that he’s kind of a grip-it-and-rip-it guy with some power but a low BA and massive Ks. Do you see him as likely trade bait or might he be up with the big club in 2008?
Always good work. Thanks.
Three ?s. 1. Now that we have the spelling correct, is it TREE-un-fel, or TRY-un-fel, also ‘un’ or ‘oon’? 2. If Rene Rivera is taken off the list, why isn’t he being shown as a graduate? He’s no star, but still. 3. What’s your take on Michael Saunders. One M’s MiL blog didn’t think he was worth mentioning when discussing 2007 rosters. I thought he had a good upside. Thanks.
Realistically, if you could do a future 40 for the other teams in the division, how well would we match up Vs them?
If you were to do some sort of comparison on the various Future Forty’s over the past years would it provide some insight into the general statement as to whether Bavasi (or really, any GM) has had a good or bad effect on the farm system during their tenure.
I mean, each future forty has forty players, but as you point out…right now we have a lot of guys who are in the lower levels of development and not much else. Is there some way to use this type of eval to gauge whether a GM is good at keeping a farm system well-stocked and evenly balanced throughout the various levels?
Forgive me for not swooning. I’m happy that the Fosters are going to have some players, but it’s 486 games until 2010, and I’d've preferred that Bavasi was able to demonstratively improve a 78-84 major league club, especially since he did significantly increase the payroll.
Now, if this was 1986, and the club was winning 67 games a year, I’d be quite satisfied thinking about the future.
And since I’m finding myself quite satisfied reading this thread (you guys do a great job), I suppose that means I’m prepared for three more years looking at five-hundred as the Holy Grail.
You have Clement’s ETA to the majors listed as 2007. At what point do you expect him to be called up: early in the season or only when rosters expand? In what capacity will he be used: DH (perhaps) or strictly a backup catcher?
the web archive has 5 or 6 past future 40′s linked up.
that should help for someone looking for past future forty’s