Revised projections of the 2007 season
At the start of the month, I spent some time looking at the team and offered up a guess:
785 runs scored
770 runs allowed
Which works out to about 82 wins. Dave noted I was a little too optimistic about the bullpen and since then we’ve seen two good sets of projections come out: ZiPS and PECOTA. I may yet get to running some season simulations with Diamond Mind to see how the whole picture comes out, too.
The numbers I used compared to the projection systems’ “normal-case” turned out well. I was a little high for my Vidro/Guillen numbers, too conservative on Felix’s progress, I again disagreed with predicitions of Ichiro’s total collapse, and so on, but generally I did well. The big gap was, as Dave said, the bullpen, where I figured there’d be a little regression from Putz but the unit would remain generally solid. The projections are a lot lower. I was far more bullish on O’Flaherty than the numbers.
My sketch of the team put it at 82 wins without further moves, and the best projections by systems are a lot less optimistic – you easily drop 20+ runs pushing the ZiPS or PECOTA numbers for the bullpen in there, which puts the team at 79-80 wins on the season.
If the swing players (Lopez, Felix, Guillen/Batista/Vidro) all perform well, no one collapses, Felix and Ichiro stay healthy, and the bullpen’s good, then sure, the team blows that away and heads to the playoffs. That’s a lot of things to go right, though.