Community Projection: Richie Sexson
140 of you guys have chimed in so far, and there was far more agreement in the projections than I expected. Let’s go to the numbers:
Community Projection: .260/.344/.512, 548 AB, 34 2B, 0 3B, 34 HR, 65 BB, 4 HBP, 153 K
Low Projection: .220/.297/.411
High Projection: .281/.378/.606
Dave Projection: .260/.327/.474
Jeff will provide you with all the gritty details in cool graph form, I’m sure, but I find it interesting how close the absolute best case projection is to the overall assessment – basically, the community thinks there’s a really good chance that Richie’s going to have the same year he had last year, and has almost no upside beyond that. There’s a few people that foresee a major collapse, but no one has him performing at an MVP-type level. Basically, Mariner fans think that ’07 Richie Sexson is essentially going to be a repeat of ’06 Richie Sexson with some real chance to underperform and not much of a chance to overperform.
The .850 OPS he’s projected to have in Safeco Field is a pretty good offensive performance, but even with that line, he’s still a bad defensive first baseman making $14 million a year with significant downside. They should have dumped him when they had the chance.
Coming tomorrow – the Jose Lopez projection opens its doors.