Community Projections: Beltre, Ibanez, and Ichiro
Sorry about the delayed writeups on the community projections – I was hanging out with my mom, who takes priority over blogging. So, we’re doing a three-in-one recap today.
Adrian Beltre
Community Projection: .283/.346/.511, 604 AB, 171 H, 40 2B, 3 3B, 31 HR, 51 BB, 7 HBP, 112 K
High: .304/.385/.603
Low: .243/.297/.373
Dave: .278/.341/.477
You guys love Adrian Beltre. Love him. I’d be curious to see what the projections would look like if he had started off hot and then crashed and burned at the end of the year, rather than vice versa. However, it looks like his May through September juvenation was enough to convince you guys that his struggles weren’t permanent, as the community thinks he’s going to have his best non-2004 year of his career. An .857 OPS from a gold glove caliber third baseman in Safeco Field is a borderline MVP candidate. I think this projection’s a bit too optimistic, but it’s plausible at least. This is the kind of production we were hoping for when he signed here.
Raul Ibanez
Community Projection: .280/.350/.466, 572 AB, 160 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 60 BB, 2 HBP, 107 K
High: .302/.388/.548
Low: .267/.317/.385
Dave: .282/.334/.435
An age-34 power spike is almost never sustained, so you guys are right to bring his slugging numbers back down towards career norms, but again, I think this might be a little too optimistic. Ibanez has been a consistent player, but he’s entering his age 35 season, and decline is inevitable eventually. Assuming he doesn’t get as many intentional walks this year, and more of the balls that left the yard turn back into doubles or long outs, he could go from being a minor star back to a role player. If he hits as the community projects, though, he’ll continue to be a valuable hitter, albeit one who shouldn’t be playing left field in Safeco.
Ichiro!
Community Projection: .330/.379/.438, 684 AB, 227 H, 25 2B, 9 3B, 11 HR, 49 BB, 5 HBP, 68 K
High: .367/.427/.555
Low: .301/.346/.381
Dave: .327/.384/.461
Finally, I like someone more than you guys do. The .108 isolated slugging perecentage here looks low to me, so I’ve given him a little more power than you guys have, but the projections aren’t that different. Everyone agrees that he’s basically going to continue doing his thing, slapping singles all over the park and being the best player on the team. As a center fielder, his value has gone through the roof, and hopefully this year, we can look forward to a season free of articles from national pundits writing their token “Ichiro is overrated” column.
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14 Responses to “Community Projections: Beltre, Ibanez, and Ichiro”
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Just a stab, Ibanez might be sustaining his numbers because he is a low mileage player. Lou sat him for several years before he really played full time. Maybe one of the readers here knows if this is a valid thought or not.
I dunno, I was just now trapped where I had to listen to Sandmeyer and well-known baseball expert Frank Hughes bitch about Ichiro for 20 minutes solid on the clock.
Just a stab, Ibanez might be sustaining his numbers because he is a low mileage player. Lou sat him for several years before he really played full time. Maybe one of the readers here knows if this is a valid thought or not.
Ibanez was a catcher in the minors – he’s not a low mileage player.
With three straight last place events, how well rated should he be?
As a GM? Dead last. Except he’s not a GM.
Is it fair to say that Safeco curbs offense by about 7%?
Manz: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/run_impact_in_parks/
And post #13 in the above link has the data in one place.
You can also see this data
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/S/PK_SEA03.htm
I hate to nitpick (actually that’s not true), but Ibanez really didn’t do that much catching in the minors.
He caught parts of 3 seasons (93-94-95) but never caught after 1995, when he was 23. I can’t find defensive stats so I don’t know how many games he actually caught but he never played more than 95 games in a minor league season up to that point. In the 3 seasons, or partial seasons, that he was listed as a catcher he played a total of 229 games. I suspect he did some DH-ing along with catching back then, so I doubt he caught that many games. These stats are from thebaseballcube; I don’t know if there’s a better source of minor league stats.
He didn’t play full time in the Lou years — 98-99-00 — but I wouldn’t think that has much to do with how he is performing now or how he’s likely to age.
In 92′ Raul caught 2 games (in AZ fall league)
In 93′ he caught 24 games
In 94′ he caught 37 games
In 95′ he caught 63 games and
In 96′ he caught 1 game
I have no clue about how much more difficult it is to catch a game as apposed to playing left field or first base or whatever. Obviously, its harder on the body. I also have no clue as to whether catching 127 games in the minors over a period of four years is considered light duty or not?
Fielding stats for Ibanez are at the bottom of this page:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/I/raul-ibanez.shtml
Looks like 127 games as a catcher until 1996, with the bulk in 94-95. 20% of his minor league games were as a catcher.
Boy, all of you liked Ichiro better than I do this year.
Too much attention on him about a contract, and he just isn’t the player he was four years ago… two years ago even.
It’s entirely possible – and I don’t want to speak too much to motivations of the crowd – that people see Ichiro as likely to perform well in a contract year, and there’s been some studies to show that players do indeed do better than you’d normally expect in these situations.
There’s also the fact that the community is proving so far to be quite bullish on practically the entire offense. It’s not just Ichiro – USSM/LL readers have projected improvements from every player we’ve done except Ibanez, and even his projected decline isn’t very steep.
Wow. Dave and I must think alike– at least on these three players.