Community projections: Jose Guillen

DMZ · February 22, 2007 at 4:44 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Community Projection: .269/.325/.445, 454 AB, 122 H, 24 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 27 BB, 89 K, 10 HBP
High: .295/.369/.545
Low: .150/.190/.263
Dave: ?
Me: .268/.323/.430

Jose Guillen was bound to be one of the most interesting projections. Out for most of last year, and not hitting when he was around, he’s a reclamation project at 31. But his previous two years, you got nice seasons out of him (.294/.352/.497 and .283/.338/.479). Projections are fairly narrow (average .260-.273, OBP .327-.332, SLG .449-.468) and they all seem to think he’ll only get ~400 ABs.

We’ve seen that in general projections have been on the high end, predicting improvements for players, but here Guillen’s community projection is high on playing time and low on performance.

AL average right fielder, 2006: .286/.348/.465
Jose Guillen projection, 2007: .269/.325/.445

In Safeco, that’s not bad, but it is still a chunk below average.

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Comments

12 Responses to “Community projections: Jose Guillen”

  1. RaoulDuke37 on February 22nd, 2007 4:53 pm

    I took off some playing time because of his injury status (or more so my general lack of knowledge of his injury status). My prorated numbers for him, based mainly on his year with ANA, made me think he could be successful this year in his return to the AL.

  2. joser on February 22nd, 2007 4:55 pm

    here Guillen’s community projection is high on playing time and low on performance.

    Well, in this case we don’t see any benefit of the doubt thanks to familiarity or loyalty; this probably reflects a jaundiced view of any new vetrans given the Crillo/Spiezio/etc history plus a general disgust with Hargrove’s use of such players.

  3. RaoulDuke37 on February 22nd, 2007 5:03 pm

    Career Numbers:

    Safeco .246/.278/.420 (43 PA)
    In LAA .311/.371/.495 (345 PA)
    In OAK .256/.305/.455 (132 PA)
    In TEX .274/.357/.581 (70 PA)

  4. Grizz on February 22nd, 2007 5:23 pm

    There is a legitimate concern with a guy like Guillen who is a risk to finish the year with more HBP than BB.

  5. Goose on February 22nd, 2007 6:51 pm

    According to the spreadsheet, Dave’s projection is this:

    .280/.345/.480

  6. Chris on February 22nd, 2007 9:09 pm

    I’m sure this was discussed before but why aren’t RBI’s projected?

  7. DMZ on February 22nd, 2007 9:12 pm

    I don’t know, because they don’t have anything to do with a player’s performance?

  8. Typical Idiot Fan on February 22nd, 2007 11:37 pm

    I don’t know, because they don’t have anything to do with a player’s performance?

    I wouldn’t say they don’t have “anything” to do with it. It’s just a wrong way of looking at / gauging a player’s performance.

  9. Steve T on February 23rd, 2007 9:14 am

    I’m gonna stick with “don’t have anything to do with”, thanks.

  10. Evan on February 23rd, 2007 9:36 am

    Perhaps we should say that there is very litle correlation between RBIs and relevant hitting skills. That’s why some very mediocre (Joe Carter) or even bad (Tony Batista) hitters have put up quite good RBI totals over the years.

  11. Chris on February 23rd, 2007 10:09 am

    but HBP does?

  12. Steve T on February 23rd, 2007 10:27 am

    Perhaps we should say “RBIs are stupid” and go on to something that matters.

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