Quick aside before the Vidro commnity projection

DMZ · February 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm · Filed Under Mariners 

Chris Snelling projections
From Fangraphs
Bill James: .262/.342/.410 in 363 AB
CHONE: .248/.337/.385 in 322 AB
Marcel: .274/.357/.460 in 226 AB
ZiPS: .262/.338/408 in 309 AB

From BP: .270/.358/.453 in 438 AB


20 Responses to “Quick aside before the Vidro commnity projection”

  1. David J. Corcoran I on February 22nd, 2007 10:10 pm

    that’s actually not that good. except the BP, of course.

  2. Goose on February 22nd, 2007 10:17 pm

    The Marcel’s is good too. 817 OPS.

  3. mark s. on February 22nd, 2007 11:35 pm

    I hope Doyle gets 300+ abs. Last I heard, he was going to be a 4th outfielder.

  4. kentroyals5 on February 22nd, 2007 11:42 pm

    I would have projected the same for him assuming he’s their 4th OF…getting 200’ish at bats for the year. I just don’t see him getting 300+ at bats so his ice-cold streaks are going to hurt him.

  5. Mike Lien on February 22nd, 2007 11:52 pm

    As a quick aside to anyone in the Phoenix area, or coming down for Spring Training (cough, dmz, cough) Chris’s brother works at a bar in Scottsdale called the Salty Senorita on Scottsdale Road.

  6. NBarnes on February 22nd, 2007 11:54 pm

    Given that I’m thinking something like 278 329 399 for Vidro this year, it would have been nice to keep Fruto.

  7. DMZ on February 23rd, 2007 12:55 am

    Wwwwwelll, knowing how the systems work, it’s not at all surprising that they’re that low.

  8. dw on February 23rd, 2007 1:46 am

    So, who will have more ABs before breaking down, Vidro or Snelling?

  9. mark s. on February 23rd, 2007 2:35 am

    #8 that is a bet I want nothing to do with!

  10. Slica on February 23rd, 2007 4:00 am

    Anyone in the Willie Bloomquist fluff piece guess February 23rd, 2007?


    The oddest part of Bloomquist staying while those around him departed is that he has never been a starter on the team, never been considered the next shortstop, the next center fielder, the next anything.

    “What Willie has become is the best utility player in baseball,” Mariners president Chuck Armstrong said.

    Wow. Id vote for most ‘forced down your throat’ utility player in baseball.

    As for Vidro…im willing to bet Snelling goes down first. Not having a DH in the NL could cripple Snelling’s career.

  11. terry on February 23rd, 2007 4:43 am

    Snelling: young, cheap, killer arm, injury risk; heart of a warrior; adored by the stathead diehards but not appreciated by casual observers; BP:.270/.358/.453

    Guillen: old, expensive, killer arm (we hope after his surgery), injury risk; clubhouse cancer; stathead diehards could take him or leave him (he is better than a cardboard cutout or WFB) but casual fans see him as a huge upgrade and proof the FO is committed to winning; BP: .260/.310/.431

    I’m so glad to be an Ms fan. It kind of looks like pandering to me is a top priority of the FO… Maybe I should be more casual about my fandom and I could appreciate the sentiment in my bliss…

  12. Manzanillos Cup on February 23rd, 2007 7:48 am

    “What Willie has become is the best utility player in baseball,” Mariners president Chuck Armstrong said.

    This man ‘Chuck Armstrong’ seems to be quite confused. It’s a good thing he isn’t carried by the Mariners in any important capacity.

  13. Adam S on February 23rd, 2007 7:53 am

    Corco said: that’s actually not that good
    DMZ said : knowing how the systems work, it’s not at all surprising that they’re that low.

    So far the community projection on Vidro is 273/338/388 (726 OPS), right in line with the lowest of the Snelling projections.

  14. F-Rod on February 23rd, 2007 9:26 am

    These projections show why losing Snelling is not a big deal. Or let alone a deal. He is a completely average, yet frail person. The only thing he does extrodinary is get injured.

  15. DMZ on February 23rd, 2007 9:42 am

    If you really can’t see Snelling’s potential, that’s too bad, but that doesn’t make him without potential.

  16. Evan on February 23rd, 2007 9:43 am

    What these projections show is how inadequate most some of those projection systems are. Are they just working with recent data and applying an aging curve?

  17. DMZ on February 23rd, 2007 9:56 am

    Essentially, yeah. They’re weighted averages with some aging curves applied. Actually… David Appelman’s got a good article on SI on how they’re calculated.

  18. mmccall on February 23rd, 2007 11:25 am

    For me, the most difficult projection for Vidro is the number of at bats. Given the switch to DH, it should be more likely he can stay healthy but there is just no way to know. Does anyone know how or if the projection systems account for past injuries and position switches?

  19. DMZ on February 23rd, 2007 11:46 am

    It depends. Read that link, first, for how those four work.

    PECOTA does attempt to take injury history into account and adjust for position switches.

  20. CSG on February 23rd, 2007 7:23 pm

    Snelling gets killed by the projection systems due to his stint at Tacoma last year, which was pretty ugly. I bet he out hits his projections.

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