Pitching Projections

Dave · February 28, 2007 at 11:21 am · Filed Under Mariners 

The Community Projection sheet for Felix Hernandez has been sent to the masses, as we’re moving on to the pitching staff beginning today. Before you go entering your projections, however, read Jeff’s little rundown on projecting doubles and triples. Because we’ve got some plans for the projections once they’re all done, we need raw data more than we need projected ERA, so we’re counting on you guys to do a good job of entering realistic projections for total number of hits allowed broken down by hit type.

We still want this to be your opinion, but if you’re not sure how many doubles you think a pitcher will allow, don’t just put any number in there – make it an informed guess.

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Comments

7 Responses to “Pitching Projections”

  1. David J. Corcoran I on February 28th, 2007 12:00 pm

    Just don’t be like DMZ and peg him with 450 strikeouts.

  2. Jeff Sullivan on February 28th, 2007 12:10 pm

    Man, a lot of people think Felix’s RA is going to exceed his components again.

  3. Panev on February 28th, 2007 2:31 pm

    I received the email and immediately clicked on the link. 25 people were already in the google spreadsheet ahead of me.

    I think everyone is ready for the season to start.

  4. phildopip1 on February 28th, 2007 3:16 pm

    2 – Isn’t that the nature of groundballers? Looking at the top 20 groundballers in the league, many of them have a higher RA than FIP. Check it out:

    Derek Lowe – 4.00 RA/3.72 FIP
    Brandon Webb – 3.49 RA/3.20 FIP
    Chien Wang – 3.80 RA/3.97 FIP
    Jake Westbrook – 4.51 RA/3.93 FIP
    Aaron Cook – 4.53 RA/4.11 FIP
    Felix Hernandez – 4.95 RA/3.99 FIP
    Tim Hudson – 5.32 RA/4.49 FIP
    Roy Halladay – 3.35 RA/3.65 FIP
    Clay Hensley – 3.85 RA/4.11 FIP
    Chris Carpenter – 3.29 RA/3.47 FIP
    Paul Maholm – 5.01 RA/4.77 FIP
    Miguel Batista – 5.06 RA/4.52 FIP
    Zach Duke – 4.85 RA/4.12 FIP
    Kenny Rogers – 4.28 RA/4.77 FIP
    Andy Pettitte – 4.79 RA/4.08 FIP
    Erik Bedard – 4.22 RA/3.71 FIP
    Roy Oswalt – 3.10 RA/3.32 FIP
    Jeremy Bonderman – 4.37 RA/3.31 FIP
    Dontrelle Willis – 4.27 RA/4.30 FIP
    Joel Pineiro – 6.68 RA/5.12 FIP

    Out of the top 20 in GB%, only really 6 (Dontrelle Willis is close enough to even) outperformed their FIP (Wang, Halladay, Hensley, Carpenter, Rogers, and Oswalt).

  5. david h on March 1st, 2007 6:55 am

    Shouldn’t RA almost always be worse than the components, since it includes unearned runs?

  6. Jeff Sullivan on March 1st, 2007 8:49 am

    Yeah. I was having a pretty stupid Wednesday when I wrote that.

  7. chrisisasavage on March 1st, 2007 10:01 am

    Grounball pitchers usually give up more unearned runs than flyball pitchers.

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