I’d rather win with uncertainty
DMZ · March 2, 2007 at 7:49 am · Filed Under Mariners
Horacio Ramirez believes in conviction.
Ramirez wasn’t crazy about his control, but only one pitch really bothered him, a 3-2 curve that former Mariner Mike Cameron hit for a single with one out and a man on base. Even so, Ramirez said he called for that pitch himself, shaking Johjima off several times.
“I’d rather throw the wrong pitch, but a pitch I throw with conviction,” Ramirez said. “That makes it right.”
Geoff Baker on Gookie Dawkin’s name.
In divisional news, Michael Young gets a 5y, ~$80m extension from the Rangers.
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Gookie Dawkins, rather. Sort of funny to think that he was one of Gillick’s main targets in the Junior deal, and that he had to “settle” instead for Antonio Perez, who (despite some things we might have done better) has now had more of a major-league career than Dawkins will ever have–and now we have Gookie as a minor-league FA. Life’s odd.
As a Mariners fan, I love that Michael Young extension.
That Michael Young IS a terrible player isn’t he….814 OPS last year, .899 year before, .836 year before. Terrible fielder too, first in total chances at ss, second in range factor, second in zone rating, six fewer errors than Betancourt…
Probably lacks grit…
Young is a terrible fielder – probably the worst defensive everyday shortstop not named Jeter or Peralta in the majors.
He’s easily the most overrated player in baseball, and this contract is going to kill the Rangers.
Gillick’s main target was Pokey, not Gooky.
Bill Krueger [sic] was on KJR this morning. To me, he and the hosts were focusing on all the wrong issues. They (hosts)were complaining about Schmidt, etc… and Krueger responded a) that the free agents were not reasonably priced, so its fine that they didn’t overspend (a sentiment with which I would think we mostly agree); and b) that Schmidt might not of wanted to come here (whatever…no way to prove or disprove).
To me, though…the dialog focuses on the wrong issue. To paraphrase James Carville: “It’s the trades, stupid”
He’s easily the most overrated player in baseball, and this contract is going to kill the Rangers.
Really? Offensively Young is close to Jeter, defensively he’s better, and he’s nowhere near as highly regarded as Jeter. In a world where Derek Jeter makes the ballot for all-time best gold glove shortstop, everyone else is competing for second most overrated player in baseball. I agree Young is overrated because he’s helped by his home park and people, in general, ignore how much damage his defense does. But Zito, Dunn, Carlos Lee, Soriano, and Gary Matthews Jr seem way ahead of him.
first in total chances at ss, second in range factor, second in zone rating…
So I understand the fallacy/worthlessness of those stats. But I wonder did something change in the Rangers pitching staff or defensive positioning last year? Did getting Soriano off second base make a huge impact on Young’s stats. BPs defensive metrics show his FRAA for the last four seasons as -16, -14, -14, 20 (!). Dave I know you don’t like BPs metric, and Young’s jump from horrid to gold glove is further proof that they’re flawed, but I wonder what external factors could make his numbers so different between 2005 and 2006.
It’s perfectly possible that a bad defensive player (like Young) could have a “fluke” good defensive year (like 2006).
Jeter’s OPS+, last three years: 116, 121, 138
Young’s OPS+: 106, 133, 106
Jeter is a Hall-of-Fame second baseman (or 3B, or CF if you prefer) playing SS.
Young is a league average second baseman playing SS in a bandbox.
So remember kids, believe that you’re going to win and you too can win 116 games in a season.
Regardless of performance, 5 years, $80M is way too much moolah. Gott love that Hicks, though – slow learner apparently.
Mookie Wilson, Gookie Dawkins.
What kills about Schmidt is that SafeCo is perfect for his style, would’ve been an eighteen game winner, at least. Oh well, can’t cry about the past. Just hope Hernandez will have the year he’s capable of.
Man, I still remember when Mookie Dawkins hit that ball between Bill Buckner’s legs…
A-Rod’s contract calls for him to be paid $27 million/yr between 2007-2010.
Michael Young’s extension means that in 2007 he gets $3.5M, $5M in 2008, and $16M/yr from 2009-2013. The Rangers are also paying $10M/yr to the Yankees for A-Rod’s salary.
So…you could have the best SS of all time for 4/$108 million or Michael Young for 6/$88.5 million + 4/$40 million for A-Rod.
Which do you choose?
If the ball sails over the fence in the adjoining compound, it was the right pitch becauase I FELT it!!
Cannon on the right of them, cannon on the left of them, cannon in front of them,
But Lord Ragland FELT it was a good time to charge the Russian guns.
Terry Benish-
Young’s offense outside Ameriquest Field is only slightly above average. His away OPS over the last three years is about .800, last year it was .750. The league average OPS for a shortstop last year was .735 (our own Yuni was right on target with a .737 away OPS).
I don’t know what this range factor you use is, but Dave Pinto’s PMR puts him 24th out of thirty-some qualifying players. But that’s just range.
This extension will have the Rangers paying Young, who’s barely above average in his prime, 16 million per year for his age 32-37 seasons. That sucks without taking into account his probable offensive decline. Or his already shoddy defense.
I don’t think Young is close to Jeter offensively. Forgetting about Parks:
Career SLG:
Young: .344
Jeter: .388
Career SLG
Young: .453
Jeter: .463
Make that first set career OBP
#14 – I’m not sure if all your numbers are exactly right, but that’s a really good point.
Also, it’s worth noting that Young isn’t so “young” anymore. He’ll turn 31 this year – not exactly the age you want to be handing out a mega-contract to a good-but-not-great player.
I’m sure in the Ranger’s eyes it’s very similar to the Utley contact- except that Utley is young, better, and it’s a 7 year deal instead of 5 for basically the same money.
Baker talks Vidro’s numbers in his blog today
oh, and The Onion covers Matsuzaka & the Boston fans
Why would you want to be “forgetting about parks”? Might as well forget about position too, and say Pujols is the best SS.
Thank you, Texas. Young was already under contract this year and had a reasonable team option for 2008, which was picked up as well. So the extension doesn’t even begin until 2009, which means the last year of the deal will be his age 37 season.
Young called the deal a “great leap of faith” by the team, which I guess means that even he knows he’s entering his decline phase.
BPs defensive metrics show his FRAA for the last four seasons as -16, -14, -14, 20 (!). Dave I know you don’t like BPs metric, and Young’s jump from horrid to gold glove is further proof that they’re flawed, but I wonder what external factors could make his numbers so different between 2005 and 2006.
That Young’s FRAA would jump 34 runs in one season is another strike against FRAA. Can 29-year old shorstops improve their defense? Sure. Can they improve by 34 runs? I don’t think so. That’s swinging from awful to more or less elite, and defensive skills just don’t shift that way at that age. There seems to be a pretty good explanation for this phenomenon:
Dude, Year, Age, FRAA
Jeter, ’01, 27, -20
Jeter, ’02, 28, -21
Jeter, ’03, 29, -20
Jeter, ’04, 30, -5
Jeter, ’05, 31, 11
Dude, Year, Age, FRAA
Young, ’04, 27, -14
Young, ’05, 28, -14
Young, ’06, 29, 20
What do Jeter’s ’03-’04 transition and Young’s ’05-’06 transition have in common? (hint) There’s a much easier explanation to their late-career surge in FRAA that has nothing at all to do with how well they field.
The lesson, as always: don’t trust a fielding metric that doesn’t use play-by-play data.
I can imagine a mound meeting between Johjima and Ramirez, right after Cameron hit that pitch that only Ramirez wanted to throw, that went much like the Crash Davis – Nuke LaLoosh meeting in Bull Durham (‘man, he hit that like he knew what was coming.” “He did.”).
Also, w/r/t Young’s raw range factor and total chances, the Rangers’ team GB% was 46% last season, tied for tops in the AL with Toronto. Their K/G was a little below average and their BB/G was about average, so the pitchers were putting balls in play a little more than average, which would help Young’s RF and TC, and a lot of those balls-in-play were ground balls, which would also help Young’s RF and TC.
#21 – You shouldn’t forget about parks. The point is that Young plays in an extreme hitters park and his numbers still aren’t close to Jeter’s.
Jeter also offers an excellent first name, well-spelled at that.
Speaking of offensive contributions from middle infielders, it has been discussed several times that Hargrove’s insistence that Jose Lopez hit ground balls led to a huge drop-off in performance last year. Can anyone provide the link to the first time this was discussed indepth? I’ve been unsuccessful in my own search. Thanks
I know this is off-topic, but [deleted, off-topic]
Damn. Did I kill the momentum or is everyone having as hard a time as I did?
I’m just glad to hear we have a pitcher who’s allowed to throw an off speed pitch in a key situation…
wordpress 2.1.2!
Actually Young is a pretty good 2B playing a passable shortstop as a short term fill in. (Un)fortunately the Rangers are rewarding him based on flawed information and paying him like a top tier SS who isn’t playing in a band box.
“I’d rather invade a country for all the wrong reasons, but invade with conviction,†the White House said. “That makes it right.â€
Most major league shortstops fit that qualification….By definition, a replacement level shortstop (league average defensively) would be a defensive upgrade over Jeter (maybe by as much as 1.5 wins-PMR to runs consistently rated Jeter as -10 to -15 from ’04 to ’06).
Concerning Young,at first glance it’s a no brainer offensively:
2006 mlb shortstop average: .274/.327/.408 OPS: .735
Young’s career totals: .300/.344/.453 OPS: .797
Young’s 2006 totals: .314/.356/.459 OPS: .815
WOW-he’s awesome. I want his baseball card.
But upon closer look:
career home: .325/.371/.494 OPS: .865
career away: .276/.317/.413 OPS: .730
2006 home: .338/.379/.501 OPS: .890
2006 away: .290/.332/.417 OPS: .749
Young is obviously helped by his home park.
But to be fair, he plays in an oasis amid a division of deserts… i.e his away schedule is pitcher friendly.
Here’s some fun from baseball reference:
neutralized career: .288/.331/.433 OPS: .764
’06 converted to Seattle: .301/.342/.440 OPS: .782 RC: 102
I guess some would still be on his band wagon with a casual glance at his bat. He’s still better than league average.
A more important comparison, though, is his projected performance versus his new salary. This gives the argument about his value some true context. Given the Rangers are now on the hook for $88.5M thru 2013, they expect him to be worth between 25 and 30 wins during that period (depending upon whether a win is $3M or $3.5M).
Now for the back of the napkin calculations. Pecota projects Young’s bat to be worth a VORP of 137 from ’07 thru ’11. If you tack on another 25 runs for ’12 plus ’13 (I basically dinged his bat .17 each year past the ’11 projection), his bat might reasonably be expected to be worth a VORP of 162 over the duration of his contract. Already there are red flags popping up because Young’s bat is projected to only be worth 16 wins over the contract.
We all know his glove isn’t going to make up the difference but for some real rough justice-i’ll consider his defense. I’ll use PMR just because it’s very accessible. Basically, PRM dings him an average of -10 from ’04 to ’06. In ’05 PMR hated Young but in ’06 PMR basically thought he was roughly average-so once again-this is rough justice. That being said, no metric likes Young’s defense and PMR probably is a conservative estimate (Dewan’s fielding bible thinks he’s a -17 run shortstop; I think UZR suggests Young was the worst infielder in the majors compared to his peers from ’00 to ’05). For the sake of argument, assuming PMR is a decent estimate and Young’s defense wont decline as a shortstop (which we know isn’t reality but I’m trying to be as Young-friendly as possible), Young’s glove will be worth -70 runs over his contract.
So combining his projected bat and the very crude projected value of his glove, Young might be reasonably expected to be a 9 win player over the duration of his contract (160-70=90; 90 runs/10=9 wins).
That’s roughly $9.8M/win (88.5/9=9.8). Ouch. Sexson is a better projected value.
Multi-year gazillion dollar contracts are always risky and most usually overpay for production especially on the back end. This one defies logic.
Is there a way to tilt the odds of this risky contract in Texas’ favor? The Rangers could move him to second to increase his value (i.e. to mitigate the effect of his glove on his overall value), but unfortunately he was below league average there defensively in 2002. Moving Young to either a corner infield position or to DH basically would eliminate the advantage his bat provides. So really, the only way the Rangers could have minimized their risk on this extension is to not offer it in the first place.
I was speaking strictly about the reference to comparing Young’s defense to that of Jeter’s…..
This philosophy boils down to “I can never be wrong.” The theory gets messy when you include batters who are willing to hit with conviction, which makes it wrong again.
Man, the West Seattle Blog needs to start burning its timeouts … the game is getting out of control here.
That’s so easy…i’d choose Honus Wagner at his salary ANYDAY.
Oh, HoRam, you’re half right. One of an individual’s greatest challenges is having the confidence in himself to take a risk in the face of the unknown, but with full confidence, initiative and conviction. In that respect, HoRam is no the right track.
That, however, does not make it the right decision. An example: Let’s say I’m sort of a novice playing a poker tournament, I hold an ace and a king, mixed suits, good hand, and I call a bet. The community flop gives me an ace, a 10 and a 4, all of which are diamonds, and an aggressive player who likes to make lots of raises… raises. Is he bluffing, does he have two pair, or a pair like I do, or does he have a diamond flush that would beat me?
If I know he wouldn’t do this unless he has a flush, then yeah, fold. However… if I’m not sure, and I just fold anyway, I learn nothing. If I call his bet, however, or I re-raise him with full initiative, I will learn for sure whether or not this was the right decision. That doesn’t make it right: if I go all-in and he turns over the flush, well then, I was wrong. I COULD be right, but I’m not going to find out if I don’t try.
HoRam is right to try to make a pitch he is uncertain of, for the learning value and the willingness to test unknown waters and learn something. However, it is not the right decision no matter what.
I just hope he doesn’t try to learn anything new during the 7th inning of a tight ballgame unless he has absolutely nothing else or has been totally figured out by the opposition.
Yes, I too think there is an over reliance upon scouting reports, pitchers meetings and game plans in the modern era…. a hypothesis-driven pitching approach could really revolutionize baseball…. wait though, isn’t a hypothesis with conviction actually a theory? What happens if HoRam begs the question? This could get tricky.
Re #5: Oh, Pokey was one of his main targets as well, no question; Gillick really wanted one or the other.
I guess this explains why the budget went up so much. Pity that they couldn’t find anything better to spend it on. The price differential between Millwood and Washburn doesn’t look like much in this environment.
Note the following though:
“But Major League Baseball is in great financial position and all the sources of revenues are strong, outside of local ticket sales. Baseball is in a good place right now.”
This also explains why KC was willing to give Meche stupid money…
Convicted? No. Never convicted.
why are we still looking at this 2 day old thread? I shudda voted for that other blog.
Quo
RE: #41 and all the other posts making fun of HoRam’s philosophy….
Let him wax poetic about conviction, and learning, and testing unknown waters. THIS is the time to be doing stuff like that.
The idea is that that he learns enough to abandon that philosophy and stop experimenting by the end of the month.
Where, oh where is Jamie Moyer, The Old Philosopher/Teacher/Pitcher, when you need him? Oh, yeah, the brain trust traded him.
Rumor has it that the M’s could soon sign a 4/5 year contract with King Felix. It would only cover two non-arbitration years (I believe?), but hell, that’s awesome anyway if it happens. Especially at the rumored 4/$10M.
#45: probably because the smart USSMers are in Arizona having pizza with Bavasi….
must. comment.
I forgot about the feed entirely. That makes perfect sense.
I’d almost reached the point of checking Lookout Landing first.
Man, I feel like the dorky kid left behind when all the cool kids get invited to a party. You know a bunch of people are off having fun somewhere and all you can do is sit around and wait to hear about everything you missed.
Feh. I was otherwise engaged, else I’d been down there, too.
But I can offer USS Mariner readers a discount to assuage their feelings…
gwangung – you are affiliated with “Pork Filled Players”, an actor or director in real life (Real life – beyond blog life)
Producer/writer/designer.
On this production, just a producer/designer (we got a better writer….)