Strengths and Weaknesses
Opening day is two days away. Huzzah! The M’s start at 0-0, just like everyone else. So, in that vein, lets take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of the 2007 Seattle Mariners.
Strengths
Felix Hernandez
The best arm of any starting pitcher in baseball along with an apparent dedication to hard work and improving his game. If there’s one thing to love about the M’s, its Felix. Not only is he a competitive advantage over every team in the division, he’s also 20 years old. All hail the king.
Infield Defense
Adrian Beltre and Yuniesky Betancourt are two of the best defenders at their positions in baseball. Jose Lopez is good enough to man second base. Richie Sexson’s glove is a problem, but if you’re going to have a bad defensive infielder, first base is the place to have one. This well above average collection of groundball vacuums should benefit the pitching staff, as well as those who just love to watch the leather being thrown around.
Line-Up Depth
The opening day line-up is going to have Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt batting 8th and 9th in some order. Both are projected to be nearly league average hitters, and they’re filling out the last two spots in the batting order. What the offense lacks in thump, it attempts to make up for in balance.
J.J. Putz
If his arm gets loose and he can unleash 98 MPH fastballs and 90 MPH splitters on the AL, he’s as good as it gets in the 9th inning. Closers are generally overrated, but when you have a relief ace as good as Putz, the hype is justified by the wins he adds.
Weaknesses
Depth
The Mariners aren’t a team that can survive multiple injuries. There’s not a capable major league replacement in the organization for Johjima, Beltre, Betancourt, or Lopez. If any of those four get hurt, the downgrade is going to be significant and swift. The same goes for Felix and Putz, the two good power arms on the team, who would be replaced by the likes of Cha Baek or Jake Woods on the roster. If long term injuries strike any of these key players, the season’s over.
Middle Of The Order
You’d be hard pressed to find a worse 3-4-5 combination in baseball than Vidro-Ibanez-Sexson. Vidro’s a contact gap hitter who can’t run, while Ibanez is trying to sustain his late career surge at age 35, and Sexson’s hoping to overpower the decline that is chasing him around the field everyday. All three are flawed players with little upside and would be role players on any other team with hopes of contending. On the Mariners, they’re the run producers.
Non-Putz bulllpen
Last year, the Mariners had one of the very best bullpens in baseball. After giving away Rafael Soriano, throwing money away to try and rehab Chris Reitsma, and counting on Julio Mateo to serve a prominant role in the bullpen, the team is going to have to sweat its way through every 7th and 8th inning lead. The team’s best chance for bullpen success lands on the very inexperienced shoulders of Brandon Morrow. For the 2007 team’s sake, he better be ready.
Management
In general, the field manager doesn’t make as much difference as fans believe. Mike Hargrove is not “in general”, however, and he’s easily one of the least qualified people to be running a team currently residing in a major league dugout. His teams have consistently underperformed under his watch, and his strategic decisions aren’t just poor, in many cases, they are indefensible. The front office hasn’t inspired much confidence in their roster construction, either, and the leadership has clearly taken a win-now approach that could jeopardize future talent in an effort to preserve jobs.
Overall Assessment
This is a flawed team that needs a lot of things to go right to contend for the division. There is talent all over the field, but every player comes with a substantial question about his ability to perform. The only sure thing on the roster is that Willie Bloomquist can’t hit. Everything else is questionable. Going into the season with so many variables leads to a lot of possible paths, from division champ all the way down to worst team in baseball. There’s no scenario you can imagine that isn’t at least somewhat plausible with this roster.
This team is, essentially, baseball’s version of the rusty trunk thats been stored in your grandparents home for 80 years. There’s a real chance that you could find several gold bars, one of the first photographs in american history, and the original copy of the declaration of independence. Or you might find a pair of false teeth, a hoard of rats, and a shirt containing remnants of the bubonic plague.
You won’t know until you open the trunk. We’ll find out on Monday.
Good analysis. What about age as a weakness, the team seems rather old to me. 2/3rds of the starting 9 and 3/5 of the rotation are on the wrong side of 30 if I’m not mistaken.
Let’s add
Rey Ordonez : .246/.289/.310 in well over 3000 plate appearances
Willie: .257/.312/.329 in ~ 1000 plate appearances
That’s some serious out production off the bench.
Wouldn’t the Ichiro contract situation also be an issue with this team? It seems to me it has the potential to be a huge distraction for this team if it isn’t already.
Under Management, I’d include two off-field distractions: the “hot seat” mentality and Ichiro’s contract situation. These guys need to get off to a good start in April and May and you have to think the players know that.
I turned on the game last night and one inning was enough: Richie Sexson bailing out Zito with a grounder to short and then Washburn working his magic on the home side of the frame… I think that particular box had the rats, lice, and plague.
I don’t think Orondez makes it through April on the team. And in general, I think “distractions from contract situations” are overblown.
Does anyone know how much Ordonez is getting paid? Of all the spring training roster moves he is the most baffling to me.
Is Hargrove really starting the season with Vidro batting 3rd? I keep thinking that’s some kind of joke. Any bets on how long it’ll last? Beltre taking over the 3-spot by late April after a strong start is a must for M’s success.
Re: 5, I might agree, generally, but Ichiro is a special case.
There are legit reasons to sign him or trade him, so there will be a lot of debate. He’s a very good player and an intriguing character. The only similar situation I can think of is Randy Johnson, and that was a drag to live through. At least we won’t hear Ichiro prattle on about how undervalued he is, or watch his performance unravel.
I think the media’s more distracted with Ichiro’s contract situation than Ichiro and the M’s are. Ichiro’s already said he’ll deal with it after the season, so basically the issue is tabled. If the media brings it up, it’s because they need a story and they want to stir things up… as usual.
Why would they put Rey Ordonez on the roster now if they didn’t plan on keeping him for a significant portion of the year? By adding him to the team, don’t they have to take someone else off the 40-man roster and then aren’t they obligated to pay his salary for the whole year? Granted, it’s probably just the league minimum, but there’s no need to throw that away just to pay someone to sit on the bench for a month. These aren’t good decisions.
Cesar Jimenez and Mark Lowe are both 60-day DL bound, opening up two spots on the 40 man roster. Rene Rivera and Sean Green are likely to be DFA’d to open up the other two spots. They aren’t the kind of players you lose sleep over putting on waivers.
Hmmm….does anyone else feel like this is the only time this year the M’s will be tied for first, but probably not the last time they will be tied for Last?
Even though Ichiro’s situation may be “tabled” by everyone except the media, I can’t believe that the players and management don’t feel the tension regarding this right now, today. They know that if they start losing speculation will begin and it will become a major distraction. Couple that with the double hot seat and you have multiple distractions.
Whether people want to try and ignore it or not, the fact is it’s there and it’s real.
This from David Schoenfield at Page 2
I tend to agree with Dave on the Ichiro contract thing. Frankly, if I was a pro ball player, the only distraction that I would have (barring a mouthy, media focused teammate) is how much he is going to get. It’s like the guy next door selling his house, tells me what I could possibly get. Other than that, it’s his deal. Ichiro is not mouthy or controversial so the media would have to get hysterical by themselves.
One thing that worked in our favor as we begin the season is that Barry frickin’ Zito is no longer in the AL West. It was painful watching him dice the M’s last night. At least we won’t have to watch him do it 4 more times this year.
Vidro-Ibanez-Sexson is an ugly middle of the order. When the Royals have a more impressive middle (Teahen-Sweeney-Gordon), you know you are in trouble.
13. Believe it. If they’re reading at all, they’re gonna read this same old story all year, have already spent months reading it, and it’s old news to them. Players play the last season on their contracts all the time. It is not that big of a deal unless the player in question is actively grumbling in the clubhouse and/or to the media.
A little harsh on Ibanez. If the slope of his age decline is gentle, he figures to be a reasonably solid left handed stick. Maybe cleanup is not the right slot, but middle of the order seems defensible on a league comparative basis.
#12 I fear we may be doing well if they are only “tied” for last.
Do we have any explanation from Grover or Billba as to why they would consider someone that adds so little to the club? If Ordonez were 28…maybe you take a flyer on him. Of course, if I remember correctly, we stole a year away from Pentagine last year bringing him on the team and then forgetting about him at the end of the bench and letting him rot. At least Pentagine had some hitting skills and hit left handed! He certainly should have gotten some time to play in place of Everett at some point last year.
Maybe Grover thinks “the end of the bench” is a honorary position on the team that is supposed to manned by a washed-up vet that needs some sympathy.
Snelling has made the Nats 25-man. Damnit. More than a few of us were holding out an irrational hope that Washington was as bad at player evaluation as the M’s. Nunez was the victim in DC.
To keep it on topic, Snelling woulda looked good somewhere between 2nd and 7th in the lineup.
CNN has a piece today on Cuban ballplayers, including Rey & Yuni, because of the upcoming trial of Gus Dominguez (Betancourt is expected to testify)
It seems to me that having depth in the lineup can be a very good thing. It reminds me a little of the late ’80s/early ’90s Atlanta Braves teams. Maybe lacking easy outs wears down opposing pitchers. Or maybe having decent hitters throughout the lineup greatly increases the chance of a rally. I don’t know. But for whatever reason, it seems to help.
Re: Ichiro’s contract issues being a drag on the team.
I’d weigh in that contract issues can be made team issues, but it takes a player being outspoken about it to become so. A player has to be pretty obnoxious about how much money they want to really start affecting guys. In this vein, its tough to compare the Randy Johnson contract to Ichiro. RJ was always a bit brash and outspoken. I remember hearing that he was described as being hell for four days, and on the day he pitches, your best friend. Ichiro, well, he comes from Japan. He will continue his tradition of “I am happy to be here and fulfill my contractural obligations to the best of my abilities. I know my .352 average has been a bit of a disappointment, but I have discovered a slight hole in my swing with low, outside pitches thrown by left handers in 9-9:30 arm slot. I have made adjustments, and they should no longer be able to exploit my prior difficutly. Thank you for wishing to interview me.” Ichiro (and the majority of Japanese players) are consumate professionals who do not bad mouth the front office or attempt to put public pressure on anyone.
I can only imagine the discussions between Bavasi and other GMs at the trade deadline:
GM1: Hey Bill, we’re looking to shore up our DH spot for the stretch run. We think Raul might be an upgrade for us. How about a couple nice Double-A pitchers for him?
Bavasi: Raul Ibanez? Hahaha, sorry. He’s untouchable.
GM1: (pause)…uh, did you say untouchable?
Bavasi: Yes. You can talk about any other player in this organization, but not Raul!
GM1: So, just to be clear – in theory Felix, Morrow, Jones and Clement could all be had for the right price, as well as Ichiro, but NOT Raul?
Bavasi: That’s correct.
GM1: (stunned silence) Ookayyy…
What a crazy end to that guy’s blurb on page 2…”Welcome to hell Mariner fans…welocme to Hell.” That seems a little over the top for the situation.
I’m intrigued by the Mariners’ starting pitching experiment, trying a rotation consisting of one No. 1 pitcher and four chunks of No. 2.
Hmm. Ichiro isn’t listed as a strength?
I think the FO was trying to model this team after 2001. 2001 was probably as much luck as roster construction. There’s no player on this team that matches Edgar, Mclemore, or the Veteran Presence of Javier/Buhner. The only presence among those four who may be approached by anyone on this team is Beltre aproximating Edgar’s impact. Ichiro could have a similiar season to 2001, but Vidro’s not going to approach Boone’s 2001. Ah, I don’t want to talk about 2001, but it just seems the FO keeps trying to recapture it. Seriously acquirind Vidro is explained by looking at him in the same light as a pre-2001 Boone by a team that keeps trying to remake a team that won on attitude and luck. The mentality I think I’m seeing of remaking 2001 is a huge mistake. There are things about the construction of that team that can help any team win (good bullpen, no easy outs 1-9, all SP at least .500 type, solid and versatile bench, good defense up the middle, etc.) but a part of the reason those things became true was because the GM recognised things in players that others hadn’t and the on-field-Manager knew how to utilize them. Bavasi you’re not Gillick, and Hargrove you’ve only got a job in common with Piniella. 2001 is gone. Find a GM that has his own ideas.
The only presence among those four who may be approached by anyone on this team is Beltre approximating Edgar’s impact.
Are you serious? Edgar hit .306/.423/.543 in 2001. I will eat my hat if Beltre approaches those numbers.
ah, I see Jonah Keri touches on the Ms in his 83 top baseball storylines ….
28…Ichiro is a strength in My opinion and that’s something I noticed too, Clapper. I guess why CF is not listed as a Depth issue is envisioning a capable Adam Jones hopefully stepping in and playing at a closer level to Ichiro than say Morse could at Third or Navarro could at second or short. I guess since Bloomquist can play all of those positions it’s not a depth problem.
30…I do beleive that “may be approached” answers your question of my seriousness. “May be approached” is not “will be equal to”. BTW there are people who beleive that Beltre will be in that range, though I don’t think he will. I haveto admit he may.
27…Nice, Jim…”One #1 and 4 chunks of #2″ That’s a great T-shirt for 2007…
32 — Yes, and H. Ramirez may win the Cy Young and Rey Ordonez may win a Gold Glove. But I’m not holding my breath (and I’m not salting up my hat, either).
Ichiro’s definitely a strength. I’d argue that Beltre is as well, to a lesser extent. This was more of a key strengths and weaknesses post, rather than addressing every single one.
Dan, why so hostile? I’m not speaking of something as improbable as that. Beltre should be playing every day. Beltre has shown for the past 9 months that he’s capable of hitting close to that level at least. I didn’t create this roster so please reserve your hostility for those responsible.
No hostility, I was just remarking on what I thought was an overly-optimistic view of A. Beltre.
And I don’t think Beltre has ever shown that he’s capable of .423 OBP, even in his fluke year.
And I don’t think Beltre has ever shown that he’s capable of .423 OBP, even in his fluke year.
In ‘04 Beltre had a .331 EQA and in ‘01 Edgar had a .330 EQA. Beltre isn’t the same type of hitter as Edgar, but he’s shown that he has it in himself to approach Edgar’s value at the plate. Obviously, it’s not that likely he’ll repeat ‘04 again, but his 90th percentile PECOTA forecast is something that I would say “approaches” what Edgar did in ‘01. So I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
To me it’s like they’ve skipped 2 and 3 all together, and loaded up on 4’s.
39 going number 1 is peeing going number 2 is…4 chunks of #2
I don’t know about anybody else, but I’m really excited about having Jose Guillen at the plate for the M’s. Guillen is one of those hitters that I see as dangerous. I wouldn’t want the M’s to be up by 2 and have 2 guys on and Guillen come up for somebody else. He doesn’t get cheated and has awesome power. I think he was the best move we made and I’m happy to have him aboard. Not to mention, if he can really cut it loose, his throwing arm is tremendous.
Good point, but Edgar did that (and more) virtually every year and Beltre has done it once (3 years ago). So, it is still VERY unlikely.
I’m not sure what timezone everybody is in, but isn’t Monday still three days away? (I guess there’s some ambiguity about whether we’re talking about the opening day for the M’s or for we-need-to-squeeze-in-one-more-nationally-televised-weekend-night-game MLB).
I have to say I’m amused by the M’s ads calling opening day “the happiest day of the year.” Yeah, because if PECOTA is right and the M’s are headed for a 73 win season, that may be the last day they’re at or over .500; it’s all downhill from there.
But hey, fans, tickets are still available!
GOOD NEWS!!! Steve Phillips just picked the M’s as a sleeper to win the division!!!! AND he thinks the White-Sox will win the wild card. Man that guy can evaluate talent. Some smart team needs to whisk him away from the broadcast booth and make them their GM now!
just as they were for Opening Day 2002.
Yeah, and I think every other opening day the M’s have ever had. Opening Day has never been as big a deal here as it has been in other cities with longer-lived franchises and more fanatical fans. I wasn’t using that to imply that fans had already given up on the team, but I was using it to imply I had given up. I’ll still watch games (just as I did last year with the same sense of resignation), but I don’t expect them to win the pennant this year just as I don’t expect them to play in (let alone win) the WS in my lifetime. (And if they do, I’ll have to move to Tampa Bay or something.)
Keep in mind all the working professionals who can’t exactly get the afternoon off to see the Opening Day game. I was fortunate to get Monday afternoon off this year after two prior years of being stuck in the office listening on the radio.
Also, Opening Day means that if you miss it, there’s still 80 home games left, so I can understand there not being a strong sense of urgency for tickets among a fanbase that probably has to work that day anyway.
I think we have to accept that what we know about Raul Ibanez for 2007 is what we DON’T know. He could run up near-MVP numbers again. He could stabilize at a lesser but still helpful level. He could go through a modest decline. Or he could drive off a cliff.
That being said … Dave, didn’t you identify some trends in Ibanez’s numbers last year — something about more fly balls vs. ground balls — that indicate an adjustment aging hitters make when their bat speed starts to slow and they find they can’t get around on certain premium pitches any longer? I was browsing through the archives but couldn’t find it.
But here’s what I did find at THT:
2004: 21.1% line drives, 43.4% ground balls, N/A on IF/F
2005: 20.8% line drives, 45.6% ground balls, 8.6% IF/F
2006: 19.3% line drives, 42.1% GBs, 10.5% IF/F
Dave, do you read that to be statistically significant?
The M’s are a sleeper team. Hargrove won’t make untalented players more talented, but that isn’t to say that this team couldn’t collectively overachieve. It happens, even for bad managers.
However, if we take the general analogy one step further, we can say that yes, leadership is a factor on whether a group will under or overachieve, and our best guess is that, tactics aside, our group won’t fight hard for this leader.
However, the group might fight for each other, and in that circumstance, the group CAN collectively outperform the sum of its parts. We can have a synergy. It is possible. Believe it. Have faith.
Well, some people have to believe something. I don’t expect the team to contend seriously, just as I don’t expect Sheffield Wednesday to gain promotion to the Premiership, but I’ll keep following them. I want to see Felix and Lopez (both on my fantasy team) and Ichiro, Betre, Kenji and Yuni and probably even some of the others. I’d like to see them contend, but I won’t be either too surprised or completely downhearted if they fold by August.
There’s maybe a 25% chance that the staff gets utterly shellacked, and one or two of the fragile veterans goes on the 60 day DL and they’re buried before the end of June. That’ll be sad, but it should be enough to see Mike and Bill out the door. Ideally it’d be enough to trigger an organisational rethink for one of the more institutionally cowardly teams in baseball.
And I’m much more likely to go to six or so M’s games this year than I am to see Wednesday play.
Ichiro’s production is a sure thing. Do you really think this is the year he doesn’t get 200 hits? Joh is a plus bat, and there isn’t any reason to think he won’t produce at the same level as last year. I know this community doesn’t like Sexson, but who would bet that he doesn’t drive in 100 runs?
There ARE a lot of question marks, but it seems trendy in this blog to act like the sky is falling. Don’t get me wrong, 110 million should net a better team than this, but there are some reasons for hope. Don’t wreck my favorite time of year… when the M’s are tied for first and haven’t lost a single regular season game.
Strength:
Awesome commercials!
*crickets*
I’ll be at the ballpark Monday afternoon to see Felix start a winning streak over the A’s and put the Mariners in 1st place in the AL West. It doesn’t get better than that. The offense will be much better, and the pitching not that much worse, overall. They’ve got a shot. Keep the faith.
if you look at ads for other teams, the Mariner ads– even in an off year — look like works of art.
ok, maybe not the Home Shopping Network series.
Well said #52. This is our o-n-l-y time of the year to have faith and hope in the Mariners it seems. So hey, let us savor it for a few days. Willie can hit. He can hit a golf ball too, I saw it on tv! And he’s H-O-T right now. Give the guy a break.
It’s not all doom and gloom, but folks, you can’t be encouraged when management makes so many questionable and risky moves.
I think this is probably a .500-ish club, but
Oh, and for “weaknesses”: a lineup without anything really resembling a patient hitter. (No, Ichiro doesn’t count.) They’ll score some runs when they are hot, but like last year, there will be some nights where they are ice cold. I won’t be surprised to see the M’s lead the league in getting shut out again, while still having a decent offense.
Good point. I don’t think we’ll see any changes to this pattern in 2007.
(Was there a study that dealt with this? Patient clubs being more consistent? Or am I misremembering….)
Coming in late. Can’t log in at work. Thinking about quitting my job but the money’s too good.
I think it’s premature to list Felix under “Strength”. He reminds me a lot of Freddy in that he has lots of potential but lacks focus and consistency. I just think it’s too early. He hasn’t proven himself yet and his last spring training “tune up” didn’t sound very good.
I believe the Mariner’s are capable of winning more than the 73 games they’re projected to. I’m curious what PECOTA had them at last year and if they over performed that projection.
Soooo The M’s performed one win better than their projection last year. Hope springs eternal!
60: You don’t have to look any futher than the comments in the PECOTA thread just down the page:
I believe the Mariner’s are capable of winning more than the 73 games they’re projected to.
I believe I’m capable of hooking up with my hot co-worker, but that ain’t gonna happen.
Performance in a single game, especially a spring training game, doesn’t tell you anything about Felix or anyone else. As for comparing him to Freddy Garcia, Felix is 20. When Freddy was 20, he was pitching in A ball. I hope you understand the difference in levels, and the rarity and difficulty of pitching at this level at such a young age. Felix is special. Freddy was never close to special in that way.
ya know I hate to say this but this roster reminds me a lot of the 1995 team, especially in the pitching department. Take a look at the stats compiled by the 95 starters…
They had one outstanding pitcher (think Felix) that carried the rest of the starting staff. They had 2 good relievers (Charlton & Nelson). On offense they had a year for the ages by Edgar and good years by Bone and Tino.
It just goes to show that lightening can strike and 1 or 2 great years can carry an otherwise mediocre club to a winning season.
Do you?
Here’s something a little more divergent:
2004: 35.0% FB%; 144 FB; 11.1% FB/HR;
2005: 34.2% FB%; 177 FB; 11.3% FB/HR;
2006: 38.6% FB%; 200 FB; 16.5% FB/HR;
The biggest difference between ‘06 and before: in ‘06, a greater percentage of his flyballs went yard and happily, he also hit more flyballs…
Basically his LD dropped a little and his GB dropped a little…. little losses there translated into a decent increase in flyballs. As it happened he turned more flyballs into HRs as well.
That 16.5% really jumps out and makes you wonder if Ibanez can repeat that…
“Factually, we’re a better team,” Bavasi said, “and if you do the quantitative analysis with statistics, we improved the most in our division. Unfortunately, we had the farthest to go.”
Is this a statement of fact? Just curious if anyone knows the concensus of “the quantative analysis with statistics”.
To me, the biggest problem with the Ms last year was that their holes were blackholes (i.e. they were killed by their weak links really being truly, truly awful).
They fixed that by making their holes closer to the league average.. I suppose that’s an improvement. Dave pretty much nails it IMHO…now you cross your fingers…
I really disagree about the relative defensive merits of 1st basemen. A poor fielding 1st baseman (Sexson) drags down the whole infield and a good fielding one (Olerud) raises the level of play of the infield. You do not want your infielders having to think about the throw to 1st and whether or not it is going to be caught. Olerud could save any throw coming his way which meant that the throws could be spontaneous and Boone could roll around on the ground, throw the ball in the dirt, and it would still be scooped up for an out. I almost could stand for called 3rd strikes if Sexson were an above average fielder.
I see the A’s picked up Todd Walker. Still the shrewdest Dumpster-divers on the block.
68: Quantative Analysis of Statistics could be anything. They could have been using the Veteran-Grittiness-ometer and used that as their judge. That’s just rhetoric.
If first basemen have a substantial effect on the infoelders they play with, that effect should be measurable.
Ibanez has never put up near-MVP numbers. Last year was his best year, and he finished 21st in the MVP voting — and he didn’t deserve to finish higher. He was 26th in Value Over Replacement Player, and that doesn’t even take his subpar defense into account.
I grew up watching the Dodgers when they had one gold glove 1st baseman after another. Garvey made Russel, Cey, Lopes, and Sax look like all-stars (maybe not Sax). If he could reach a throw he would catch it. I wish the Mariners would get a competent 1st baseman so the comparison could be made. Olerud was as good as any I have seen and it is disappointing that they do not have a good defensive backup.
The lack of pitching will do in the Mariners by the all-star break. The starters will struggle to give 5 good innings and the bullpen has been neglected. I do like the depth of the lineup when the Mariners are at bat for the first time in a few years. Scoring runs will still be a struggle with so many station to station runners.
if you sign a half dozen aging veterans each of whom have histories of injury, or are coming off serious injuries, what would you logically expect to happen?