The Coolest Thing You Didn’t Know About
If I told you there was a major league scoreboard that updated Win Probability in real time, would you get excited? If so, you’re as nerdy as I am, which makes me feel a little bit better.
Anyways, it’s true. Fangraphs has a live, updating scoreboard that calculates WPA on the fly. ESPN or MLB will tell you that Jose Contreras got bombed – only fangraphs will tell you that his wretched performance was worth -.482 WPA. Since each time starts with approximately a 50% chance to win the game, and Contreras reduces the White Sox chances by 48%, you can safely say that Contreras destroyed any chance the White Sox had of winning today. Sometimes, one guy really can win or lose a game.
On the other side of the ledger you can quantify just how much guys like Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Ben Sheets, and Adam Dunn have carried their teams.
I heart fangraphs. Of course, this automated version of WPA isn’t as accurate as one done manually, such as the ones Jeff Sullivan does at Lookout Landing every night. His commentary is also hilarious, so don’t let the awesomeness of live WPA distract you from the fact that you still need to read LL every morning.