The M’s can stop playing now
2-0 wooooooo! Clearly the positive tone of yesterday’s game post is to be credited.
Over on the Cheater’s Guide Blog, I look at the Angels’ K-Rod cheating in the first game of the year.
I built this to put in what I knew would be nearly identical stories from the two papers, but the Times is being slow to post tomorrow’s stories, so all you get are the PI links right now. Hopefully they post before I fall asleep here.
The M’s matched last season’s win total against the A’s: PI. The Times story curiously pushes it to the seventh paragraph. Of course, Mr. Baker wasn’t here last year and has no idea how traumatic it was.
Morrow’s first start gets a story in the PI
Batista says nice things about Felix. Betancourt might miss a game to testify that big trial thing.
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What’s better than the M’s being 2-0? The A’s being 0-2. I’m in the Bay Area tonight and caught some of the A’s postgame radio. It was hilarious. 2 games down to the M’s and the host of their Extra Innings show (which sucked by the way) spent the whole time talking about what A’s fans should be worried about. Are they not as good as last year offensively? Are the Mariners much better than they were last year? What aspect of the A’s performance should we be most worried about? Should we be worried or is it too early to be worried? Boy that Felix Hernandez was good yesterday wasn’t he?
It was amusing to hear the other guys wracked with anguish for once, even if it’s only 2 games in. Good times!
Yes, for more of that just look at AthleticsNation. Richie Sexson is the sleeping giant they’ve awakened at their peril. Felix is their Kryptonite, the nemesis that will destroy them for years to come. None of their guys can hit, none of their fielders can field. Piazza is a bust. Crosby should be sent packing, or put back on the DL.
It could all change tomorrow, with Harden on the mound. But, at least for now, the colors of schadenfreude are green and gold.
Two games, two great new 2007 catchphrases / gimmicks:
“FUNK BLAST!”
and
“GO BALL!”
I’m already enjoying this.
Oakland’s lineup is pretty uninspiring, especially without Dan Johnson. Shannon Stewart, Jason Kendall and Piazza have looked pretty rough, Chavez doesn’t look like the same player he was a couple years ago (offensively), and I wouldn’t want to rely too heavily on Mark Ellis and Bobby Kielty. They’re going to need to rely on really good pitching/defense if they’re going to win games. I don’t think they’re much better than a .500 team, if that.
Dan Johnson hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching. Injuries aside, he’s not terrifying at all.
Johnson put up a .288 EQA in 434 PA’s in 2005 at the major league level. It’s not great, but it would sure help Oakland’s offense. He’s also had over 1000 PA’s at AAA with about a .300 EQA over the last three years. I don’t think it’s that big of a stretch to expect him to add to their offense.
But wait, no mention of what’s going on with the Nats?
So yeah, Logan is out – for 2-3 weeks. And one would think/hope that this meant Doyle would then get an opportunity to play for the next 2-3 weeks.
But no. For the 2nd game of the season, instead of putting him into the starting lineup, the Nats chose to CALL UP CASTO FROM THE MINORS AND START HIM INSTEAD. WTF?
At least Doyle got to pinch hit for the pitcher (and got a hit).
Man, I hope this isn’t an indication that the poor kid won’t be treated any better by the Nats than he was by the Ms.
Re: Doyle
Has Vidro hit the ball out of the infield yet?
I watched the Sox – Chiefs game this morning (we get strange delays in the UK) and was cheered to hear Gil Meche described as the staff ace in Kansas. Granted he did a reasonable job but to call him an ace given one game in blue and his performances for the Mariners.
Man, I certainly can’t think of any Mariner blogs like that…
P-I says 26,000 tickets are available for tonight.
Wow.
Must have been tough for the Chiefs playing baseball in all those pads… :O
Want to know why the M’s are 2-0?
M’s batters with bases empty: .143/.182/.167
M’s batters with runners on: .389/.350/1.056
Clutch hitting rocks.
M’s really need to do something about Turbo. How can this can be your #3 hitter? Stupid. Maybe move Betancourt to the three spot, but do something. The way it is now, in the first inning, there’ll be a runner on first, one out, up comes Turbo, double play, end of inning. This is ugly.
I am honestly excited about the season in ways I haven’t been in along time – two game disclaimers apply, of course.
Sure, Washburn will have his ups and downs, and now we get to the “golden three” in the rotation, but hey, with Felix and at least one decent performance from another pitcher in rotation equaling a win, our odds aren’t bad of taking some series along the way, especially if the team can share the hitting wealth.
I can tell you this – Mateo is going to make us cry all season long. How many performances like last night will it take before we only use in situatins in which the team is down by 8 runs? I nearly puked when he ruined a decent outing from Washburn. Does anybody have any idea how Grover can be so blind to this guy’s suckiness?
I meant to add that I knew Mateo would come in to “protect the lead.” You just had that feeling, didn’t you? Also, even though Grover would have yanked Morrow if another batter reached, good on him for letting the kid struggle and work through a tough situation in his first ML appearance. Morrow wasn’t pretty all the time, but he threw a strike at key times, generally stayed around the strike zone, and, after the nerves settled down, did just fine for his first time out, all things considered. He also walks off the mound with some confidence, rather than having a tough first go of it.
Just remember: We thought Grover was blind to Every 5th Day Eddie’s Suckiness last year, but eventually he came around, even though it took several loses before hd did. If Mateo continually sucks Grover will come around. He’s just slow.
Slower than Vidro? Now there’s a scary thought.
I’m faster than Vidro, and I’ve got two bad hammy’s and a bad back. And about to start my second string of Physical Therapy. To bad you couldn’t do the whole ‘guest’ runner like in little league.
Though I guess the whole point is he needs to reach base first.
Re: Announcers: Sims is talking way too much about outside stuff. Last night it just seemed he couldn’t keep quiet for a second. I hope he calms down during the season. Guys, we can see what’s going on, lighten up a bit.
Buhner molests Willie bam bam
#20 – that’s what I thought about the first game – I was subjected to the A’s announcers last night. He has a “basketball” style to announcing, no doubt, but I was hopeful from his spring training broadcasts, which were much more subdued, and there were inviting moments of silence that define good baseball broadcasts. He was actually very good for those games.
You don’t need to fill space, and Sims now has a bit of color man that creeps into his play-by-play as well. Really, the play-by-play guy should be focused primarily on the field, with the color man adding some helpful insight, so that when the two do share a story or an anecdote, it is a welcome change of pace.
Some of the best play-by-play guys don’t respond to the color guy at all for a good part of the game. These guys let the color guy add some things, but don’t turn the whole thing into a continuing conversation. Dave N., for instance would go huge stretches of saying nothing to Red’s comments. Basketball broadcasts tend to be a running dialogue for periods of time, sometimes with three guys jabbering the entire game. It’s fine for a fast-paced sport with a lot of fouls and time-outs but I don’t think it suits baseball, where a good announcer paints a picture of the action.
I disagree with Jeff from LL, and think Sims should return to his toned-down ST broadcast style (maybe he was just tired with the tourney and a bunch of other things going on in March). He’s not just energetic, he’s talking too much. I tried to find 2 seconds of dead air, and like clockwork, he’d jump in with something. Plus his “oh yeahs” after a good hit or play will start to seem like homerism by the end of it. Tell us what is happening, not how you feel about it.
When Morrow came in the ninth, I was thinking that, yes, Lou didn’t do very well with young pitchers, but I don’t remember anyone ever bringing a complete rookie (first ML appearance) into a game in the 9th inning to protect a lead. Even though it was a 4 run lead, a first appearance could be expected to result in a pitcher overthrowing and having control problems. And in fact, he was a little wild. He could easily have walked a couple, given up a hit, and the tieing run would be at the plate.
I was thinking also that it wasn’t the ideal situation for Morrow’s debut, but if Grover is thinking of using Morrow in late game situations, why not get him used it right off the bat? Grover has a lot of Tommy Lasorda in him.
How will you learn to swim if you’re not thrown in the water? I think Hargrove needed to see how he would handle a little adversity. That is definitely something he’ll require. He handled it well his first time out. Hopefully he’ll build confidence so much so that it will excel his growth as a pitcher.
- I think that Sims is fine. In fact, the biggest problem I am seeing in that booth is that Mike Blowers does not seem to have any sort of sense of humor/ability to respond to Sims questions. Blowers just doesn’t seem to have much of a flow in his broadcasting style…he is learning I suppose.
I was thinking going into the 9th that it should be Arthur Rhodes, but it would prolly be Morrow.
Its no secret that when Hargrove gets excited about something, he exploits it.
Thats why Mateo was brought in after a fluke SPRING, and thats why Lowe is currently on the DL.
Lowe is on the DL because he had a chondral defect in his arm. It had nothing to do with how he was used last year.
No one here likes Hargrove, but stop blaming him for things he didn’t cause.
How bout the Big Sexy going deep? No calls for getting rid of Sexson today? I suppose two clutch dingers in two games will buy him a little time from the ravenous wolves…
I’d still give Sexson away if someone would take that contract, no questions asked.
The bottom line is, Mateo is 1-0 and leads the league in vultured wins, which means Hargrove thinks he’s a gutty performer.
Hargrove’s beard is shrinking the polar ice cap.
Dude, I did not know that specific detail about Lowe, relax!
Dave,
Give him away for nothing? How many runs does Richie have to produce in order for you to keep him? He has what, 2 years left on the deal? If this off-season they had signed a free agent slugger capable of 40HR/120RBI/100R to a 2 year deal, wouldn’t you be pumped?
I was at the game last night and when Mateo came in to start the seventh I was shocked at how much unrest there was coming from the fans. And this was while he was tossing his warm up pitches. Men, women, children – you name it – they were grumbling even before he started the inning. Even the casual fans seem to realize that Mateo sucks. The best part – when the inning was over, Mateo was booed lustily coming off the field. Shades of Bobby Ayala. Good times.
Amen. I say sell high on Sexson today. Who would the Yankees give up?
Dave,
Give him away for nothing? How many runs does Richie have to produce in order for you to keep him? He has what, 2 years left on the deal? If this off-season they had signed a free agent slugger capable of 40HR/120RBI/100R to a 2 year deal, wouldn’t you be pumped?
HR, RBI, and R are a lousy way to evaluate a player. I’ve written thousands of words on the Sexson issue, and they can easily be found by googling. Short summary – he’s a league average first baseman being paid like an all-star, and his production is simply not very hard to replace.
I have read your stuff, that’s why I have brought it up a couple of times (though I read more than post). After the last two games, it seemed appropriate to bring it up again. A lot of posters seem to echo your thoughts, that he is garbage and overpaid.
So, to rehash, while HR, RBI, and R, may not be the best way to evaluate a player, these stats DO mean something! Sexson simply changed the dynamic of the last two games. Granted, it is a long season, and Richie isn’t going to hit 162 HR’s. But I find it hard to believe that someone who knows as much about baseball as you do, is so skewed against a guy that actually produces. He puts runs on the board, not sabermetrics that measure woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Sorry to suck you back into it, but the Mateo stuff was getting boring for me.
Perhaps you should consider that I’m not skewed against the guy, and he’s just really not that good?
The problem, Sevenfly, is that your argument holds water only if we couldn’t do something with the freed-up cash from giving Sexson the boot. I understand we may not trust the team to do the right things with the cash, but even if they decided to spend Sexson’s money ONLY on another 1st baseman, we’d have been able to land someone capable of producing (in true measures of value) more than Sexson does, maybe even at a significant discount. Heck, I’d bet a few of us could come up with scenarios in which Sexson’s money could fill several holes, and sacrifice little in total production (Dave did in one of his first off-season posts, if I remember right).
Where you might have a decent argument is that the front office would get us a bunch of Guillen and Vidro contracts that amounted to little, but the team’s inability to judge player worth to get satisfactory return on investment does not somehow make the Sexson contract good.
You might want to fix your cheaters guide blog, because if Francisco Rodriguez is pitching to Casey Kotchman, then the angels have far more offensive woes then expected coming into this season
Even if a child learning to swim was a good analogy to a rookie learning to pitch in the major leagues, you know, getting thrown in the water is not actually the best way to learn how to swim. Or even a good way.
I understand the argument to get rid of Sexson but it has holes. While Sexson may be league average and therefore in theory easy to replace, I look at how difficult it has been for Bavasi to find a decent DH (another supposedly easy to find commodity) and I shudder. At least with Sexson you pretty much know what you are going to get, overpaid or not. To trust Bavasi to effectively replace Sexson’s production would simply be a leap of faith given his track record. Given the current lack of ability to evaluate talent I would rather have them overpay a player who actually produces.
These arguments often devolve too quickly into the abstract. It is difficult to say who even had interest in coming to Seattle. Remember when all we had to do was throw a little money at Jason Schmidt and he would be coming home? How pissed would you have been if we had traded Sexson to the Yanks, then signed Hillenbrand and Weaver and called it good?
Dave said right now he would just drop Sexson for nothing. I say that a two year deal (how many years does Sexson get in this last offseason with teams going crazy?) is a bargin for the production the M’s will get out of Sexson this year.
Okay. I am done. I will be the lone dissonant voice supporting the only guy on the roster that you EXPECT to hit 100 RBI’s every year.
20. If we had the best baseball announcer in the world, guys like you would still find something about him to complain about.
Dave Sims is way, WAY better than the positively contrived Rick Rizzs. At least he brings energy and enthusiasm to the booth that is somehow genuine. This is not just here but in a lot of forums: there is a lot of Blindly Pessimistic Mariners Fan in these Dave Sims complaints.
As for Blowers, I remember his work on the KOMO 1000 postgame shows, and he was bland, sounded bored and disinterested, and offered little insight or enthusiasm. I was a bit surprised they even gave him the TV gig. Valle said a lot of dumb things, but at least he seemed like he was trying.
fwiw….
2001:
game 1 attendance 45,911
game 3 attendance 31,382
2002
game 1 attendance 46,036
game 3 attendance 31,082
2003
game 1 attendance 41,723
game 3 attendance 6,295
2004
game 1 attendance 46,142
game 3 attendance 34,376
2005
game 1 attendance 46,249
game 3 attendance 25,580
2006:
game 1 attendance 45,515
game 3 attendance 21,394
45. I’m not saying I hate the guy, it’s only been two games into the regular season, and I’m more than willing to wait and see how he does. Baseball games demand a certain style, a personal style, and Sims is, I feel, still trying to find his baseball style. It’s just that right now, he’s a little too hyper. The enthusiasm is great, it needs to be channeled better.
#45 – We do have one of the best announcers in baseball, in my view, in Dave Niehaus. Sims is still rough around the edges as a baseball announcer, showed his potential in ST, and has taken a step back. Frankly I don’t want to measure how good he is against how bad the other folks were. With Sims, however, at least we know he can come around. I suspect the rookie mistake for play-by-play guys is most often trying to fill every second with chatter. I have confidence he’ll catch on, but even Rizzs keeps his mouth shut every once in a while (and I am no huge fan).
- I have to agree with the Blowers comment. Listening last night I can’t see how you can hear Sims/Blowers and some how think that Sims is the loose link of the group. Bland and disinterested seem like perfect words to describe Blowers at this point…it was almost like they were in seperate rooms the way he just didn’t even acknowledge some of Sims’ comments.
- Also, if anyone has kids or enjoys listening to Dave N. I would recommend really enjoying the next couple of years. Of course there has been talks for years that he was starting to slide, but this year is the first year where I have heard a noticable difference in his voice. Just might not be that many more summer nights to sit out and enjoy his voice.
Dave, you’ve posted quite a bit about Vidro not being a good fit for No. 3 hitter but I don’t recall a solution. Would you Switch him with Guillen in the Lineup, or with Lopez? How would you build the Lineup to move Vidro from no.3?
Assuming I’m not allowed to bench Vidro?
Vs RHP:
Ichiro-Johjima-Ibanez-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Lopez-Vidro-Betancourt.
Vs LHP:
Ichiro-Johjima-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Ibanez-Lopez-Vidro-Betancourt.
#49 – Amen to that. So many good childhood memories involve a warm summer day, or cool evening, and Dave’s voice on the radio making the game come alive. You are right, he’s not going to be here forever.
As far as Blowers goes, I just think we are doing awful with color analysts. I am not sure it’s that hard a job, but in the many broadcasts from other teams I hear (MLB Extra Innings), I have to say there aren’t a ton of good ones. You would think color analysts would be like DH’s, one of the easier roles to fill. Many are just annoying. This may not be a shared view, but I actually didn’t mind the rare instances in which Dave did the play-by-play and Rizzs was the side-kick. He seemed less artificial, and somewhat human. Or maybe I just tuned him out, hard to remember.
I for one, like Sims for his voice. It doesn’t make me want to gauge my eyes out with pencils. Give him some time, he’ll figure this baseball thing out.
I’m surprised to hear you say that you would move Beltre out of the #2 spot. For whatever reason, it just seems to work better for him.
And yes, I agree that there aren’t many good broadcasters out there. Of what I’ve heard, I’ve liked the Brewers broadcasters the best, and they weren’t any great shakes.
Horrible: Chicago White Sox. YOUCANPUTITONTHEBOOOOOOOOOOARD YES! Ugh.
MSB: What the ‘eck happened to game 3 in 2003?
I’m surprised to hear you say that you would move Beltre out of the #2 spot. For whatever reason, it just seems to work better for him.
I don’t think line-up position has anything to do with it. He started hitting better in the #2 spot, but he didn’t start hitting better because he was in the #2 spot.
#54, or Dave – I hear (over and over it seems)that one of the reasons Beltre does better in the number 2 slot is he gets more fastballs when Ichiro is on. Is there statistical proof for this? Beltre has had pitch recognition problems (not quite Pedro Cerrano hacking at every curve, but close at times). Is he getting a more steady diet of fastballs, and is that making any difference (obviously we must focus on last year, since two games offer little help)? Just wondering.
Given my somewhat blunt reply, I must add that Sims isn’t perfect and he certainly has room for improvement. But last night’s telecast (I went to Safeco Field on Monday) was the first time in a long while that the words of the broadcast team didn’t have me, at any time, howling anything like “SHUT UP” or “YOU IDIOT” in response to what was said, or had me reaching for the mute button. Sure, announcers will always make questionable claims, but the Sims/Blowers team didn’t throw out the salvo of dumb, inaccurate/unfounded remarks that came with Red, Hendu and Rico telecasts.
Sims brought a fresh perspective and enthusiasm that wasn’t of the contrived, phony Rizzs variety (or at least not obviously so, as it always was with Rizzs).
Dave is simply using the players to their strengths. Jojima may also ground into a lot of double plays this year, but his ability to get on base is a lot better then Vidro’s. Plus he hits for more power. Jojima should be the second hitter on this team. Beltre is a third – fourth batter. The whole thing with him hitting better in the 2 spot is garbage. The 2nd batter in the order doesn’t mean jack, he still hit the way he did with his own skills. The only thing that might have helped would have been mental, and for that Beltre can just get over it.
#54, or Dave – I hear (over and over it seems)that one of the reasons Beltre does better in the number 2 slot is he gets more fastballs when Ichiro is on. Is there statistical proof for this? Beltre has had pitch recognition problems (not quite Pedro Cerrano hacking at every curve, but close at times). Is he getting a more steady diet of fastballs, and is that making any difference (obviously we must focus on last year, since two games offer little help)? Just wondering.
There have been all kinds of research done on these kinds of topics, and they all come the same conclusion – there’s no proof of any of it, and it’s probably just not true.
Sexson had a terrible first half last year and hit well above league average in the 2nd half. I think there is optimism that he could continue that going forward.
I’m not claiming that he is worth $14M or that we should or shouldn’t trade him. I’m just saying that I think there is valid hope that he can at least get back to 2005 numbers.
Typical Idiot Fan – I agree with you that line up spot shouldn’t matter. I agree with you that if it’s anything it’s probably mental and more likely coincidental. If it’s mental, I don’t think you can oversimplify it by saying “get over it”. I’m just saying that line up order doesn’t matter enough for me to mess with it.
We all agree that Vidro sucks, which is pretty much the problem.
Sexson had a terrible first half last year and hit well above league average in the 2nd half. I think there is optimism that he could continue that going forward.
This is one of the main ways fans overestimate players on their own teams; interpreting hot streaks as true talent level. You’ll often see people point to various points of a players career and say “see, that’s what he can really do if he puts it all together”, when they’re not actually capable of sustaining that kind of performance over long periods of time.
Sexson’s not as bad as he was in the first half, nor as good as he was in the second half.
Dave,
- I’m confused why having Johjima at #2 would be different than having Vidro at #3 with regards to the whole GIDP problem. Based on previous posts it has been said that since Vidro hits more than 50% of his balls on the ground and runs really slow he will hit into an inordinate amount of double plays. Last year Johjima hit more than 50% of his balls on the ground and he certainly isn’t much faster than Vidro.
- Also, with regards to Beltre you said there has been all kinds of research done on these kind(s) of topic(s). I don’t understand are you saying that there has been nothing done with specific regards to Beltre or that there has been other research that you are somehow applying to the Beltre situation?
I’m confused why having Johjima at #2 would be different than having Vidro at #3 with regards to the whole GIDP problem. Based on previous posts it has been said that since Vidro hits more than 50% of his balls on the ground and runs really slow he will hit into an inordinate amount of double plays. Last year Johjima hit more than 50% of his balls on the ground and he certainly isn’t much faster than Vidro.
Johjima’s GB% last year was 44.8%, and we don’t have four years of data that show him to be an extreme groundball hitter, so while the difference between him and Vidro for ‘06 isn’t huge, we still have to project Vidro to be the more extreme groundball hitter in 2007. Johjima also has more power than Vidro, and hitting him second instead of hitting Vidro third would lead to 20 or 30 less double play opportunities for the slow groundball guy.
- Also, with regards to Beltre you said there has been all kinds of research done on these kind(s) of topic(s). I don’t understand are you saying that there has been nothing done with specific regards to Beltre or that there has been other research that you are somehow applying to the Beltre situation?
We don’t have to do specific research on every single example of a certain phenomenon to come to a general conclusion about the validity of a strategy as a whole. If we study a couple hundred players and are able to determine that there is no evidence of a change in performance due to line-up position, we can safely assume that Beltre is likely affected in a similar way to the large sample of players we studied and is not an historical anomoly.
Will it lead to 100% accuracy? No. But it’s far better than using flawed “correlation = causation” thinking and setting a poor line-up based on a belief that we have no way of knowing is true or not.
Basically, for Beltre to have some special need to hit 2nd rather than 3rd, you’d have to believe that he’s somehow special and different from the great majority of his peers. A couple hundred at-bats in one season isn’t anywhere near enough information to draw that conclusion.
Basically, for Beltre to have some special need to hit 2nd rather than 3rd, you’d have to believe that he’s somehow special and different from the great majority of his peers. A couple hundred at-bats in one season isn’t anywhere near enough information to draw that conclusion.
Well, that isn’t the only possibility (and I am not arguing in favor of this). Another basis for the theory could be that the person batting before Beltre is different from the great majority of his peers, and assumptions about what a fastball delivery may give you – quick delivery to the plate, less chance of balls in the dirt, etc. in order to keep Ichiro honest.
Again, I don’t support the theory, having no information about it, but I think some believe Beltre is seeing more fastballs based on some assumptions about Ichiro, at least as much as about Beltre.
Again, I don’t support the theory, having no information about it, but I think some believe Beltre is seeing more fastballs based on some assumptions about Ichiro, at least as much as about Beltre.
Of course, there’s no evidence that anyone besides Beltre is getting this #2 hole hitter benefit, and Ichiro’s been around for six years years. If Ichiro was the cause, it’d be demonstrably obvious in the performance of everyone who has hit behind him since 2001. And it’s not.
Also, when Jeff Sullivan and I plowed into the BIS pitch-by-pitch data on why Beltre was struggling, the clear problem was that he wasn’t hitting fastballs as well as he did in Los Angeles. It wasn’t that the quantity of fastballs that had declined, but his ability to hit them.
And, again, going back to the line-up thing – the burden of proof for creating a sub-optimal batting order is on the side proving that Beltre’s performance will be significantly better in the 2nd spot than it would be in the 3rd spot. You don’t set a batting order with the low OBP/high SLG guy in front of the high OBP/low SLG guy just because of a theory that has generally been disproven. The only defense for that kind of switch lies in some kind of factual basis, which I’ve never seen evidence of.
All good points, Dave. On the ones I can understand, I agree with you 100%. It’s just disappointing to hear these things thrown out daily on broadcasts and in print as gospel truth.
If it’s true, though, almost anyone would hit better behind Ichiro, supposedly seeing a steady diet of fastballs.
I’m under the impression that not only is there no evidence that lineup position has any effect on hitting, there’s also scant evidence, at best, that hitting in front of or behind specific players has any effect on hitting.
If we study a couple hundred players and are able to determine that there is no evidence of a change in performance due to line-up position, we can safely assume that Beltre is likely affected in a similar way to the large sample of players we studied and is not an historical anomoly.
I don’t think this study would really answer the question though. It’s not a question of whether Beltre would benefit from a general lineup switch but rather a question of how the pitch sequence changes when batting behind a high OBP base-stealer. For that, you would need to look at variability in pitch sequence for batters hitting behind a specific set of players – Ichiro, Ricky Henderson etc – when they are on 1st with an open base in front of them. The question isn’t whether or not Beltre is special but whether Ichiro is special.
slipped by Dave.
Also, I remember that research showed that hitting went way down during any steal attempts (successful or unsuccessful), which tends to suggest that it would be hard for any supposed pitch-selection benefit to make anyone hit better in the spot after Ichiro.
#71: you are implying that teams do not have a high OBP base stealer as their lead off hitter. As lead off hitters go, Ichiro isn’t even particularly high in OBP.
#74 – his OBP is better than most of the rest of the squad, no? I just thought it would be an interesting study to see how pitching approaches change when 1st is occupied by a class of players (Ichiro, Ricky Henderson, Vince Coleman etc).
Visually, it sure looks like at least a couple of things change:
*cadence/delivery time to home plate (including throws over to 1st)
*pitching from the stretch/slide steps
*alterations to pitch selection/sequence/location (including pitchouts)
Isn’t it reasonable to think that these changes would impact the productivity of the hitters behind them? Of course the hitters are changing approaches too (bunting, taking extra pitches and all) so it would strike me as being pretty hard to make much sense of it.
Whatever is reasonable to think, if these changes had an impact it should be measurable beyond small sample sizes.
(That comment reads more abruptly than I meant it to. I agree that the suppositions are reasonable, just as the idea of protection is reasonable. It’s just difficult to find any data that support it.)
Scraps – I guess I’m arguing that there may be some generalized exceptions to the rule that the protection effect is negligible.
#1 – Assume that by-the-book rules of baseball suggest #2 hitters should reduce their effectiveness by bunting, hitting behind the runner, taking extra pitches etc. This offsets the dimininshed effectiveness of the pitcher & makes the broad statistical survey appear that any effect is within margin of error + or -
#2 – Assume that there are some players who are unable/unwilling to change their approach OR are actively instructed not to change their approach. Baseball managers (my opinion) as a rule appear less likely to buck tradition than coaches in other professions, so this scenario doesn’t happen much.
If #1 and #2 are correct, then if you really wanted to find the effect, you would have to look for both the right kind of 1st hitter and the right kind of 2nd hitter, right? I’m not going to get into the argument about whether Beltre is that kind of exception, except that he doesn’t strike me as the prototype #2 hitter.
#75: In naming 3 players who are in a certain class, Ichiro, Rickey and Coleman, you named 3 players who are pretty much completely unlike each other except that they were fast. (Rickey had quite a bit of power and walked a ton, Coleman was an out machine, Ichiro has very limited power and although he rarely walks he has a much higher BA than Coleman did. Thank gawd.)
The point Dave was making was that this topic has been studied lots of times by lots of people. Unless you are talking about Barry Bonds, there isn’t such a thing as a protection effect. If hitters who hit behind a #1 hitter with speed would get better, it would have shown up.
The point I was making is that Ichiro is not that much different in either OB or in SB than a typical leadoff hitter. So thinking that he is some sort of extreme case is misguided.
If you want to do a detailed study on Beltre, knock yourself out.
Paul –
I took a quick glance at the #1 and #2 hitters yesterday & their stats from the most recent full season. If I did the math right, Ichiro stole 65% more bases than the average other #1 hitters did last year. Beltre – not accounting for park effects, had an 11% higher slug % & a 38% higher k/pa rate than the average of the other #2s.
So, Ichiro is more likely than average to cause a change in pitching repertoire while Beltre is an unusually aggressive #2 hitter who derives a somewhat higher percentage of his value from his aggressiveness & may not adjust his approach based on his position in the batting order.
I just thought it was interesting – feel free to punch holes in it.
note from Ken Rosenthal today:
“Every season, scouts are puzzled when certain players fail to crack Opening Day rosters. Outfielder Jack Cust, 28, and catcher Ben Davis, 30, are examples of borderline major leaguers who probably could help clubs in the right situations.
Davis, released by the Yankees at the end of spring training, is a catch-and-throw specialist who is superior to several current major-league backups, scouts say.
He might have been a better choice for the Orioles than Alberto Castillo, who allowed five stolen bases against the Twins on Tuesday night, in part due to right-hander Daniel Cabrera’s slow move to the plate.”
Rickey was probably easily the slowest of those guys. He didn’t steal all those bases because he was fast.
Which would explain in part (along with his incredible conditioning) why he was still able to steal bases into his 40’s, despite obviously having diminished physically.
Rickey would give long intervies about how he was never even the fastest guy on his team. Or how much easier it was to steal third base because it only took 7 strides rather than the 11 it took to steal second. Rickey gave stealing bases a lot of thought.
Didn’t he also refer to himself in the 3rd person or am I confusing him with someone else?
He did, but that has been way, way overblown.
Evan, Rickey was maybe not the fastest but he was fast. He didn’t steal all those bases because he was slow. If he were slow to start he wouldn’t have still been stealing bases nearly at will into his late 30’s. I admit to loving the A’s when Henderson was there, because the team was solidly built with alot of personality. Even then I rooted for the M’s too, but what was here to root for in the late 80’s. I know that though being Nolan Ryan’s 5000th strikeout he never stole a base from Ryan. This is a player that I studied while/after growing up, alot. Rickey started out fast. How do you steal 130 bases in a season just on know-how and *grit*? It would have been repeated if it were simply the know-how. I Know Griffey’s number was Rickey’s number and Rickey didn’t want to take it away from the kid, refusing 2 contract offers from the Mariners for that reason. A young Alex Rodriguez asked Griffey to get him a meeting to ask questions about stealing bases and talk baseball with Rickey. They talked in person and over the phone several times that year. A-Rod’s steals went down dramatically the next 4 seasons. If it was just know-how (I admit, not a quote) why didn’t Alex implement that newly learned knowledge?
I didn’t phrase that right :*Griffey picked the number of his childhood idol, Rickey Henderson*
Rotoworld picked this up:
Francisco Rodriguez was photographed with what appeared to be a foreign substance under the bill of his cap following his first save of the season on Monday.
K-Rod was seen rubbing his thumb in the area following several pitches. Derek Zumsteg, a former Baseball Prospectus writer who wrote about Monday’s incident in his blog, says the Rangers noticed the apparent cheating and complained to the commissioner’s office. We’ll have to wait and see if anything comes of this.
Source: Zumsteg.net
So DMZ…how much did u pay K-Rod to have him ‘cheat’ so you could get a write up or 2?
Perfect timing!
Please never write a title The M’s can stop playing now
They just might read it!
It appears The Cheaters guild to baseball blog has given MLB reason to investigate Francisco Rodriguez performance the other night!
WTG!
Saw you referenced on cbssportsline.com as well, DMZ:
Just finished the book, loved it. I hope you save enough material for a sequel!