Future Forty Updated
With the M’s taking a sabbatical for a week, we can continue to focus on the minor leagues, where actual games are being played. So, to kick off the minor league season, we resume the monthly updates of the Future Forty.
Since I expect this to be the main discussion point, let’s get this out of the way early – yes, I have Carlos Triunfel rated as an Elite Prospect despite one professional baseball game. Statistical analysts will laugh at a ranking that places Triunfel in a tier ahead of Adam Jones, but I’m okay with that. Triunfel has the talent to justify the ranking. With all due respect to Adam Jones, Triunfel is the best prospect in the organization. His bat is special in a way that Jones’ isn’t, and while he obviously has no experience in professional baseball, there’s a balance that needs to be struck between performance and potential. Triunfel’s potential is so high that the balance point for him is significantly further towards the elite end of the scale than it would be with lesser talents.
Yes, this is an aggressive ranking, but it’s one I’m going to stand behind. Jones is a very nice prospect, but Carlos Triunfel is the one guy in the organization who could walk away with an MVP award or two. He’s got that much physical ability, and the scouts who watch him play can’t stop talking about how good he can be. Carlos Triunfel, folks – he’s really good.
Also, if you want to know just how uninteresting the High Desert roster is, consider that they have exactly one member of the Future Forty on their team, and it’s a relief pitcher who probably will be in Double-A before too long. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is the only prospect of consequence the Mariners sent to the Cal League, and for good reason – High Desert’s ballpark is a joke, and the games played there barely resemble baseball. The scores from their opening weekend games with Inland Empire: 9-7, 18-11, 11-6, and 15-11. Four games played, 88 runs scored. Only two more years until the M’s can get away from that ridiculous experience.
Don’t look now, but Matt Tuiasasopo is hitting the baseball. After one of the most miserable seasons in prospect history, Tui is repeating Double-A by spending the summer in West Tennessee and looks to be trying to put 2006 behind him as quickly as possible. In the first four games of the year, he’s 6 for 13 with 3 doubles, giving him a nifty .462/.533/.692 line. Compare to last season’s Double-A experience, where he had five extra base hits in 62 games. Tui has battled two huge weaknesses at the plate so far; a total lack of power and poor pitch recognition. If he really is learning how to drive the ball, that’s going to be a legitimate step towards fixing the issue that nearly derailed his career last year. It’s just four games, but it’s the best four game stretch of Matt Tuiasasopo’s baseball career. So that’s something.
I’ve got Brandon Morrow’s current rating as a 4. Other players I’ve assigned a 4 rating too include Jeff Clement, Ryan Feierabend, Bryan LaHair, Jon Huber, Yung-Chi Chen, and Jake Woods. They’re all in Tacoma. I’m just saying.
I left Michael Garciaparra on the Future Forty even though he was designated for assignment last week, because I expect him to clear waivers and remain in the organization. The upside just isn’t very high with Little G, and I don’t see another team using a 40 man roster spot on him.
And finally, as an overview for what kind of shape the organization is in, I’ll continue to point out that Wisconsin is probably the most talented team in the minor leagues, as they have 10 members of the Future Forty on their roster, six of whom have potential ratings of 7 or higher. The upper levels of the system aren’t very good, but there’s a lot of high ceiling talent hanging out in the Midwest League.
Hey, I for one am good with Triunfel’s ranking; you made a similar call on Felix el Rey, and that’s turned out pretty well.
The question on High Desert is, do you think we’ll be able to move on in two years? We’re there, after all, because nobody else wanted us — is that going to change? Or is our best hope trying to push a franchise move?
The “Free Austin Bibens-Dirkx” campaign gives its thanks.
Now if we can only get ‘im outta High Desert. Baby steps…
I guess I’m glad to hear Tui’s having a good start to his second year at AA. I was sorta wondering why, if they’re keeping their pitching prospects out of High Desert, they wouldn’t send a kid whose bat has been seriously struggling into that environment, to gain some confidence back.
Interesting to see the oldest FutureForty I can find, and compare the results — both of how many guys are still on the Future Forty, and to see where guys back then have ended up.
Dave,
You have Clement’s ETA as 2007….do you expect him to simply be a call-up when rosters expand or do you see him playing a bigger role at some point earlier in the season (ex. replacement DH for Vidro)?
As always, nice work.
The last time you were as high on a prospect as you are on Triunfel, we got Felix. You’ve got a good track record going, Dave. Of course, we should also note the high risk you’ve attached to Triunfel. Why the high risk number?
The question I have relates to Adam Jones: You’ve got his ceiling at 8, and current ability at 5. Does he need to make that many strides? How close is he to the bigs, really? Are we looking at a mid-season callup if he toasts the ball in Tacoma? And if so, is his “current” ranking liable to rise?
The question on High Desert is, do you think we’ll be able to move on in two years? We’re there, after all, because nobody else wanted us — is that going to change? Or is our best hope trying to push a franchise move?
If the M’s are willing to leave the Cal League, they’ll have no problems getting out of High Desert. If they continue to be bound and determined to keep their high-A team on the west coast, it will get a bit trickier. But two years of having to skip all their pitching prospects from Low-A to Double-A should convince them to get the hell out of High Desert, no matter if they end up in Kinston or not.
You have Clement’s ETA as 2007….do you expect him to simply be a call-up when rosters expand or do you see him playing a bigger role at some point earlier in the season (ex. replacement DH for Vidro)?
I think he’ll be up at some point in the second half, replacing Burke as the backup catcher. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the team had a Clement-Jones-Bloomquist-Broussard bench after all the all-star break.
The last time you were as high on a prospect as you are on Triunfel, we got Felix. You’ve got a good track record going, Dave. Of course, we should also note the high risk you’ve attached to Triunfel. Why the high risk number?
Well, I’m not quite as high on Triunfel as I was on Felix, but obviously, Felix is the kind of kid that an organization gets once every 100 years, so that’s a pretty high standard. I will say that Triunfel’s the most talented position player the organization has signed since A-Rod.
The question I have relates to Adam Jones: You’ve got his ceiling at 8, and current ability at 5. Does he need to make that many strides? How close is he to the bigs, really? Are we looking at a mid-season callup if he toasts the ball in Tacoma? And if so, is his “current†ranking liable to rise?
He still has quite a ways to go before he fulfills his potential, especially on the defensive side. He’s still working on his reactions and routes in center field, and while he could certainly be a very good defensive CF at some point, right now, he’s just okay. His ability to be an asset with the glove at a premium position is a big part of his value, and his defense still needs improvement. His current value is tied more to his abilities in CF than his abilities with the bat.
At this point, I think the M’s would have been better off putting Bibens-Dirkx in the major league pen and sending Morrow back to AA to start. I think Bibens-Dirkx, with that sick side-arm delivery and currently reaching 93+ mph, would have done pretty well in the bigs (he also has solid control) and we could have kept Morrow as a starter.
Dave, do you think it would be totally crazy to have Bibens-Dirkx in the big leagues this soon?
Dave, do you think it would be totally crazy to have Bibens-Dirkx in the big leagues this soon?
I don’t think there’s any need to have either Morrow or Bibens-Dirkx in the majors right now. The difference between their expected performance and that of a guy like Jon Huber is small, and Huber’s done developing as a pitcher.
I’m just not a fan of pushing guys to the major leagues that quickly. It wouldn’t do either of them any harm to hang out in the minors for 8-10 weeks, and the team could make a much more educated decision then.
Please pardon my ignorance but why did they move from Inland Empire to High Desert? Also why would teams not want to be affiliated with the Mariners? From what I have read here I thought that one of the things the Mariners had going for them was there minor league operations.
Inland Empire wanted to hook back on with the Dodgers, since their proximity to LA means that they’ll draw significantly better with future Dodgers playing in an area populated by Dodger fans.
With IE walking away from the M’s, and most of the other Cal League clubs happy with their affiliations, the M’s were faced with the option of landing in High Desert or moving their high-A team to the east coast. They chose High Desert. They chose poorly.
And it’s not really true that teams don’t want to be affiliated with the Mariners. San Antonio got angry with the organization due to their rapid promotion philosophy and the fact that the Missions organization feel its their God-given right to win the Texas League championship every year, and that caused the M’s to look for a new Double-A home, but that was mostly an isolated incident.
Does this comparison have any merit to it: Cole Hamels and Tony Butler. I know this is premature, but I wonder if they are similar types of pitchers. One was much more heralded, but Butler put up Hamels-like numbers in his debut.
Thanks for the great update. This gives reason for hope in the future I think. One question: how is “Triunfel” pronounced?
Does this comparison have any merit to it: Cole Hamels and Tony Butler. I know this is premature, but I wonder if they are similar types of pitchers. One was much more heralded, but Butler put up Hamels-like numbers in his debut.
They have different repertoires. Hamels, as an 18-year-old, had one of the 10 best change-ups on the planet, and basically lived off of it. His four seam fastball was 88-92 and his curve was basically a show-me pitch, but his command was excellent and his change-up was the best the minors.
Butler’s a totally different animal. He’s 90-94, occassionally popping 95 or 96 with the fastball, and sits 88-91 with the two seam fastball, causing him to induce a good amount of groundballs. His curve is a legitimate hammer of an out pitch, but the change-up needs work. His command is also below average, and will be the biggest key to his development.
So, no, I wouldn’t compare the two, because they have different skillsets and different development paths. I’d probably compare Butler more to a guy like Darryl Kile.
Thanks for the great update. This gives reason for hope in the future I think. One question: how is “Triunfel†pronounced?
Tree-oon-fell.
What position does Triunfel project for long term?
Thanks for the great work Dave. I only occassionaly post, but I am on here all of the time and appreciate all that you do.
Does the risk factor on Morrow change at all on account of the uncertain development path? (I don’t remember where it was pegged last time.)
What position does Triunfel project for long term?
It’s too early to tell. He’s just 17, and people grow at different rates and in different ways. His body type suggests that he’s going to end up with the build of a second baseman, but we’ll have to see how his footwork and reactions are.
Does the risk factor on Morrow change at all on account of the uncertain development path? (I don’t remember where it was pegged last time.)
Morrow’s risk factor didn’t change, but I did drop his potential rating from an 8 to a 7 to reflect the growing possibility that he spends a bulk of his career coming out of the bullpen.
What is risk factor?
Is it better if the risk factor is higher or lower?
What is risk factor? Is it better if the risk factor is higher or lower?
All three 1-10 ranking numbers are based on an escalating scale, being that 1 is the lowest and 10 is the highest. So, a risk factor of 10 is the highest risk prospect possible, and a risk factor of 1 is the lowest risk factor possible. Risk attempts to sum up the issues a player has to overcome in order to fulfill his potential as well as the likelyhood that he will fail and never become a useful contributor in the majors. Things such as injuries, lack of experience, mechanical flaws, and character problems are all included in the risk factor rating.
Basically, the higher the risk factor, the less likely it is that the player will reach his potential.
Dave, any new insight on Chris Tillman? I know you were kind of down on him last year because of immaturity/off-field issues. Has that changed at all? Do you see him as a potential major league TOR starter?
Dave, any new insight on Chris Tillman? I know you were kind of down on him last year because of immaturity/off-field issues. Has that changed at all? Do you see him as a potential major league TOR starter?
From all accounts, he was on his best behavior in spring training and didn’t have any major incidents with the coaching staff, which is a good start. We’ll have to see how he handles a full season on the road before we dismiss the fact that he has a pretty good track record of being a punk, though.
And it’s way too early to project him as a front of the rotation starting pitcher. There’s so much more to pitching than velocity and a curveball.
Thanks for all the great info as always, Dave.
Question about Mario Martinez and Greg Halman: Who do you like better, long-term and why? I know you have them ranked about equally, but can you give us some information about their respective skill-sets, who they compare to in MLB, etc?
Great work again.
As for Betancourt, what would he have to do to become an 8 or higher potential-wise… I mean if he actually keeps up his power that he is starting to show this spring (potential 50+ extra-base hits) and keeps average the same as last year…he is getting to be borderline all-star, right???
Question about Mario Martinez and Greg Halman: Who do you like better, long-term and why? I know you have them ranked about equally, but can you give us some information about their respective skill-sets, who they compare to in MLB, etc?
We know very little about Mario Martinez, so my information on him is pretty shallow. The M’s gave him $600K to sign, they like him a lot, and they think he has a chance to be a good all-around player.
Halman, we have a bit of a better read on. Superior athlete with juice in his swing, above average speed, and an athletic frame that should develop well. However, his approach at the plate essentially boils down to trying to hit every fastball as far as he can and praying he doesn’t fall down trying to hit a breaking ball. He’s an easy out right now, and he’s got a long ways to go in how he approaches each at-bat before he has a chance to maximize his physical abilities.
This is actually a pretty common skillset, and one that has all kinds of possible outcomes. He could continue to hack away at everything he sees and never get out of A-ball. He could make some adjustments but maintain most of his uber-aggressive streak and turn into Juan Encarnacion. Or he could take a bunch of “supplements”, become the new Juan Gonzalez, and win a few MVP awards.
A lot of these super athletic kids never pan out, but the ones with serious HR power make it more often than the kids who have projected power. Halman’s already got the ability to drive the ball over the wall, so he’s ahead of guys like Kenny Kelly. His ability to differentiate pitches coming out of the hand is going to make or break his career, however, and history says he’ll probably lean more towards the Encarnacion career path.
How much credit does Bavasi get for restocking the minors? Independent of his (in)ability to put together a major-league team, it seems like he has our minors in far better shape overall than his predecssor.
Excepting that most of the top talent in the system was scouted internationally (signed as FA outside of the draft) which is what his predecesor built-up to supplement drafting.
Do you see Clement pushing Johjima next year?
Great work again.
As for Betancourt, what would he have to do to become an 8 or higher potential-wise… I mean if he actually keeps up his power that he is starting to show this spring (potential 50+ extra-base hits) and keeps average the same as last year…he is getting to be borderline all-star, right???
The problem is that Betancourt is very unlikely to add any power without negatively impacting the rest of his game. Essentially, to add a significant amount of power, he’s going to have to hit far fewer ground balls than he did a year ago, when his GB% was 46.4%. Groundballs usually end up as singles, so the more you hit, the less likely you are to end up beyond first base.
So, if Betancourt starts hitting more flyballs, then yes, he’ll hit for more power. But he’ll also be reducing the value of his speed and lowering his batting average.
Take a look at his ‘05 and ‘06 ball in play numbers:
2005: 37.2% GB, 45.2% FB, 17.6% LD, 31% XBH/H
2006: 46.4% GB, 35.7% FB, 17.9% LD, 26% XBH/H
When Betancourt got to the majors, he hit the ball in the air more often than he hit it on the ground, and as a result, he had 17 extra base hits in about 35% of a season, but he hit .256. Last year, he made some adjustments, hit the ball on the ground more often, raised his average to .289, but saw his extra base hit rates drop.
The two are linked. If you want him to hit for more power, he’s going to have to become more of a flyball hitter, which will lower his batting average. If you want him to hit .300, then he needs to remain a groundball hitter, and that puts a cap on how many extra base hits he can provide. He doesn’t have the skillset required to be a .300+ hitter with power. His frame is too small to sustain any real growth in strength, and his swing is built to hit the ball on the ground and maximize his speed.
Despite everyone wanting to project growth for him since he’s only 24 years of age, people need to look at what he is, and that’s a basically mature player who isn’t going to get much better offensively. His game might change, but the likely production is going to remain relatively constant.
How much credit does Bavasi get for restocking the minors? Independent of his (in)ability to put together a major-league team, it seems like he has our minors in far better shape overall than his predecssor.
He should get a significant amount of credit for bringing in Bob Fontaine, and Fontaine should get a large amount of the credit for the guys the M’s have brought in the last few years. There’s no doubt that the Bavasi regime has been better for the health of the farm system than the Gillick regime. It’s too bad he’s lousy at evaluating major league talent and has flushed so much money down the drain on bad major leaguers.
Do you see Clement pushing Johjima next year?
Potentially. Early reports on Clement out of Tacoma have been very encouraging, and Johjima is a catcher on the wrong side of 30. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clement was beating down that door next year.
So the M’s are about, what, 2-3 years away from a wave of young talent — that either Bavasi’s successor can take credit for, or Bavasi can trade away for Everett/Vidro style veteran leadership.
Hey, Dave, I know it’s too early to seriously think about such things, but for fun what if this Triunfel kid does develop as you say and say 3 years down the road he’s ready for the show and assuming that Betancourt stays on the defensive track he’s on (albeit with a .260 BA) who do you see playing SS on opening day 2010, Triunfel or Betancourt? Or do you see by then Triunfel moving positions (like Jones) to keep Betancourt at SS?
Speaking of trading away young talent, is there a way to list, as an addendum, your last assessment of the prospects we did trade away in the last few years. Seems like that would be useful in looking back and assessing trades. For instance, we all followed Doyle closely, but I can’t remember whether you judged Fruto a 5 or 6 or a 7 in terms of his potential. Seems like it might be useful to have a listing at the bottom of the Future 40 listing the departed with their last ranking at the time whenthey were traded. At least for any of the significant prospects.
I frequently read that Gillick “gutted” the M’s minor league system. Yet, in the late Gillick as GM years, there was a reluctance to trade any prospects for that power bat that the M’s needed to edge the A’s…reportedly because the organization didn’t want to part with the wonderful young arms in the organization.
Are you saying that Gillick brought in the wrong people to evaluate talent or that he got rid of young talent in favor of vets?
Where would you rank Juan Carlos Ramirez? I know BP ranks him as the 10th best M’s prospect, that he’s from Nicaragua, and that he was apparently quite good in the VSL last year. Where is he starting out this year, and does he have the potential to make it to full-season ball this year?
Seems like he’s got a better upside than many on this list, though all we have to go on are scouting reports.
Also, what are your thoughts on Doug Fister? What does he need to do to crack this list – will a solid but unspectacular season open some eyes, or does he really need to improve vs. lefties and show that he can strike people out in the high minors?
We had a serious run of bad luck with those “wonderful young arms”.
Where would you rank Juan Carlos Ramirez?
With guys like Ramirez, I generally try to take the approach of “I don’t know enough to have an educated opinion, so I’m abstaining”. I made an exception for Mario Martinez, because a friend of mine in the organization is a big fan and convinced me to put him on the list, but in general, I try not to guess at things, and with Ramirez, I don’t really have any more information than you guys do, so I left him off the list. When I get some better information and feel like I’m not just throwing darts, he’ll get added.
Fister was #41, and he’d have been the guy on the list if I had booted Garciaparra for getting DFA’d. I’d like to see him develop his secondary pitches before I get too excited, though. You can’t win in the majors just by being tall and locating your fastball.
Are you saying that Gillick brought in the wrong people to evaluate talent or that he got rid of young talent in favor of vets?
Gillick believed that first round picks were overpriced and actively avoided signing them if he could. The Mariners signed players before the deadline to offer them arbitration with the express purpose of forfeiting their first round pick, then used high draft picks on tough sign guys like John Mayberry and Eddy Martinez-Esteve and lowballed them with offers that essentially forced them to go to college.
Not only did Gillick put the woefully unqualified Frank Mattox in charge of the draft for a half decade, he put into place philosophies that were distinctly anti-player development.
Hey, Dave, I know it’s too early to seriously think about such things, but for fun what if this Triunfel kid does develop as you say and say 3 years down the road he’s ready for the show and assuming that Betancourt stays on the defensive track he’s on (albeit with a .260 BA) who do you see playing SS on opening day 2010, Triunfel or Betancourt? Or do you see by then Triunfel moving positions (like Jones) to keep Betancourt at SS?
So many things can happen in three years that it isn’t any kind of concern right now. You play Triunfel at short until he proves he can’t play short in the majors.
That said, I don’t see anyone moving Betancourt off of SS as long as he continues to hit reasonably well, and the contract extension he just signed makes it pretty likely that he’s going to be the M’s shortstop for quite a while.
Thank you for your answer.
Dave,
Guys with Betancourt’s frame and skillset: How long do they usually last in the majors? We know (well, we think we know) that he’s hit his peak (plateau?) fairly young. Is that skillset going to stick for ten years, or is he likely to be out of baseball before he’s twenty-seven?
Seems to me the development of Chone Figgins as an athletic player who could play multiple positions and whose bat was MLB ready when he was called up, is a lesson for GM’s and Managers who wish to promote a good hitter with positions blocked by other veterans.
Dave, Gillick inherited Frank Mattox who became scouting Director the year before Gillick came in as GM. Mattox’s draft the year before Gillick came in look as bad as (or worse than) the 3 years they were here together.
Im a little interested in Rob Johnson’s play so far. Hes stolen 3 bases already this year. Are they telling him to be aggressive, is he faster, or is this just a fluke?
Dave, great work, thanks for doing this. Minor points: I think Felix, Lopez and Betancourt are established major leaguers, they are present forty rather than future forty. Reed and Huber are not with the major league team, IIRC.
Shouldn’t Huber and Reed be listed in ‘Tacoma’ ?
Bob Engle is the hire Gillick was/is responsible for. Bob Engle who is partially responsible for finding and signing King Felix, Yuniesky Betancourt, and the new ‘Elite Prospect’ Carlos Truinfel (as well as several other ‘Future Forty’ prospects. I agree that low-balling top picks is not a good way to build a farm system, but Gillick didn’t deep six this clubs ability to find and promote prospects. The young players you’re looking at would probably not be here had Gillick dumped that Money into those top picks rather than international scouting. Dispute this: the same dollar goes alot further on international scouting than it does on signing top draft picks. 3 million dollars put in to international scouting can net you much more talent than that same 3 million spent on a bonus baby. Would you put up a poll to see how many of these readers think 3 million on a bonus baby is going to net you more talent than 3 million on international scouting? IMO that is only proven more with the team that’s taking the feild (sans snow) for the Mariners. That’s the philosophy you keep saying is flawed…
*Triunfel*
I’ll just toss this out there —
Conor Jackson, the #13 pick the M’s gave up for Greg Colbrunn, signed for $1.5m
Michael Garciaparra, the guy the M’s took at #36 in 2001, got $1.050m
There have been multiple studies done by MLB clubs on the issue, and they all have the same conclusion – the return on investment of drafted prospects is higher than that of international signings. Every single study comes to that same conclusion.
You can point to guys like Felix or Triunfel as bargains, but you can’t ignore the hundreds of other players the organization has signed to bonuses that have never produced any value.
Bob Engle’s been a huge boon to the franchise, no doubt, and I’ll give him a lot of credit, but Pat Gillick’s decision to ignore the draft and player development was the main reason the Mariners found themselves in the cellar the last three years.
Penny wise, pound foolish. This organization excels at throwing fairly large sums of money at nothing…repeatedly.
Dave-
Who is more likely to be with us a year from now, Reed or Broussard?
Neither.
Garciaparra actually got a little over $2 million, but as a two sport athlete, they were able to spread the bonus out over multiple seasons.
So the M’s spent twice as much to sign Garciaparra as the Diamondbacks spent to sign Conor Jackson, who they were able to select because the Mariners signed Greg Colbrunn.
Is there anything that can be done about the High Desert ballpark? Move the fences, raise the fences, freeze the baseballs? Seriously, giving up one of your most important development tools like that is crazy.
I see Gillicks focus on international scouting as a huge plus to this organization and his shortcomings as bearable in comparison to that and the on-feild performance during his tenure, but I don’t think we’re going to agree on this issue. IMO Bavasi has been worse for the M’s than Gillick was. You can list alot of players who were not even professional yet that Gillick didn’t spend money on (and therefore the team doesn’t have) and I can list alot of players that were already Major League ready (most times at the M’s training expense)that Bavasi gave away.
Dave, if you had to put one of these Future Forty players in as a starter after releasing Vidro, which one would it be (whether at DH, or in the feild to move someone else to DH)?
Where would the Andrews (Baldwin, Barb) be if the list was extended? Is there much hope for either one?
Is there anything that can be done about the High Desert ballpark? Move the fences, raise the fences, freeze the baseballs? Seriously, giving up one of your most important development tools like that is crazy.
It’s the environment more than the park. The thin air and high winds conspire to make the ball absolutely fly.
Dave, if you had to put one of these Future Forty players in as a starter after releasing Vidro, which one would it be (whether at DH, or in the feild to move someone else to DH)?
Easy – Adam Jones to LF, Ibanez to DH.
Where would the Andrews (Baldwin, Barb) be if the list was extended? Is there much hope for either one?
They’re in that 41-60 range of guys who are all basically the same. I like Baldwin a little more than Barb, but they are both longshots.
What happened to Travis Chick, the pitcher the M’s got for Eddie Guardado? He had a call up last September, but is not on your Future Forty. Is he still an M?
So Carlos Triunfel likley wont reach his potential because of a high risk factor?
and also i read that Hargrove is close to getting a contract extension..what are your thoughts on that?
What happened to Travis Chick, the pitcher the M’s got for Eddie Guardado? He had a call up last September, but is not on your Future Forty. Is he still an M?
He’s still with the organization, but he’s battling through arm problems.
So Carlos Triunfel likley wont reach his potential because of a high risk factor?
No, that’s not at all how you should apply risk factor. If I thought there was very little chance that Triunfel would reach his potential, he wouldn’t be on the Future Forty. You should interpret Triunfel’s rating to mean that he has a huge amount of talent, but that there are a lot of things that he has to overcome before he’s contributing to the Mariners.
and also i read that Hargrove is close to getting a contract extension..what are your thoughts on that?
Rather than hijacking threads, with questions like this, send us an email.
Consider it a successful hijack… what have you heard about the situation, Dave?
Churchill was the first person to tell me about it. I’ll do a post on it if I can get some other confirmation.
Thanks for the reply and sorry to get the thread off track. That’s fairly big news. Anything on Bavasi?
If you’re sorry for the hijack, then stop hijacking. And no.
Thanks for the info Dave.
For heaven’s sake, why????
Basically, Gillick’s approach to international would be a plus ON TOP OF regular minor league development. International development INSTEAD of minor league development is not a winning strategy; it makes your organization unbalanced and fatally weak in one area—as we have been seeing.
For an organization that was rapidly becoming cash rich as the Mariners, an either/or strategy is nothing less than managment incompetence. It should have been and/and.
At this point, Dave, what’s your sense of how the M’s stack up against the rest of MLB? I realize you can’t really do a Future Forty on every team in the majors, but if you did, and then ranked them, where would you guess the M’s would rank?
When you account for young major leaguers like the Future Forty does (and thus, the M’s still get credit for Felix, Lopez, Betancourt, and Morrow), the M’s would probably be in the 15-20 range. They’ll be quite a bit lower than that in farm system rankings that only include prospects who still qualify for the rookie of the year award, as most teams have significantly more depth in the upper levels of their minor league systems than the M’s do.
So, total under 25 talent in the organization – middle of the pack. Just minor leaguers, bottom ten.
Tui’s got another double tonight, by the way, giving him four in five games. Keep in mind that he had 20 extra base hits all year last year, and he only had four doubles in two and a half months after being promoted to Double-A.
Small sample size, but at least it’s a happy small sample size.
Glad to hear about Tui. As far as sample size goes, every big sample size started out as a small sample size.
I notice a decided lack of starting pitchers in the near future, and that seems to be our biggest need. I really don’t see how the team can leave Morrow in the bullpen. We need 3+ starters next year, and we all see how well it worked out trying to get three off the FA market this year.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2003616835_mari14.html
In this article, Greg Bishop of the Times discusses Triunfel and another teen in camp named Anthony Phillips. He’s a 16 year old middle infielder out of South Africa. Bishop doesn’t describe his game at all, so does anyone have any info on this guy? The team must have seen something in this kid to make them jump on him that early.
Dave, great work. I’m curious, is there a current MLB player that compares favorably with Truinfel?
Physically, Triunfel reminded me a bit of Andruw Jones – not that tall, thick lower half, but still pretty athletic and a good runner.
In terms of his swing, I’d probably go with someone like David Wright – line drive power without a huge uppercut, while the ball just leaps off his bat. Wright may have more home run power than Triunfel will due to the size differential, though Triunfel certainly runs better.
That is a great idea DavidM3……..it would be cool if Dave could reference a big leaguer that these players are most comparable to (assuming they achieve the reward that Dave assigns to them).
I was taking a look at that link Paul had up for the old Future Forty and I was surprised how bad it looked. Maybe it is just hindsight but it seems a pretty pathetic list after the first few players. I like this list much better. It gives me a feeling that the ship is going in the right direction a little and the next 3 years will be better than the last 3.
…who was traded for Quniton McCracken. Ahhh, memories.
…who never won 116 games
I’m starting to sense intentional dissent.
Heh, the Mariners aren’t the only ones having problems with the snow. The Wisconsin T-Rats haven’t played at all since that first game. Triunfel apparently hurt himself in that first game landing awkwardly after throwing / fielding a ball, but it didn’t seem to be serious. People were very excited about Triunfel before he was signed by the Mariners, so it’s no surprise whatsoever that people are excited about him now. Hell, I’m jazzed just thinking about having a top notch position player prospect again.
Other Future 40 questions:
What exactly determines whether someone should be a Projected Regular or a Projected Contributor? I only ask because the Projected Regulars all have a Reward of 7 (except Justin Thomas at 6) but some of hte Projected Contributors (only on the “several years away” list) have 7s as well. Is that only because they’re on the “several years away” list and still have some potential to expand beyond or will those players, especially the pitchers, pretty much only be bullpen guys?
What are the chances that most of these guys will still be in Wisconsin on June 2ndish? I’m going to be in the area on that date, and might catch a a game if possible.
Dave,
Quick question. I know the guy’s name came up a bit in discussions last season regarding the Everett roster…….what’s the current scoop on Douglas Fister? The org jumped him all the way to West Tenn (AA) and he had a solid first outing of the season.
5 Inn
2 hits
1 ER
1 R
2 BB
5 K’s
Is he still an Org type or does he have the chance to take a big step up this season?
Thanks in advance.
“Potentially. Early reports on Clement out of Tacoma have been very encouraging…”
He’s 3-20 with a hr and two walks…still can’t throw at all or receive.
He doesn’t have very many supporters among the coaches in Seattle…as a catcher.
I was taking a look at that link Paul had up for the old Future Forty and I was surprised how bad it looked.
Yeah. So anyone who forgets how completely horribly Gillick botched the farm system — let that serve as a reminder.
What exactly determines whether someone should be a Projected Regular or a Projected Contributor? I only ask because the Projected Regulars all have a Reward of 7 (except Justin Thomas at 6) but some of hte Projected Contributors (only on the “several years away†list) have 7s as well. Is that only because they’re on the “several years away†list and still have some potential to expand beyond or will those players, especially the pitchers, pretty much only be bullpen guys?
There are some thin lines in places, simply because we have to draw disctinctions somewhere, and there will be guys at the top of one tier that are pretty close to the guys at the bottom of another. It’s just part of the deal. Generally, a regular is a guy who can be a rotation member or everyday player, while a contributor is a reliever or a bench player.
What are the chances that most of these guys will still be in Wisconsin on June 2ndish? I’m going to be in the area on that date, and might catch a a game if possible.
Most of them will still be there. Triunfel, Butler, and Tillman aren’t going anywhere this year. Liddi or Lo might get promoted if they’re tearing the cover off the ball, but I’d bet on most of them staying in Wisconsin for the majority of the year.
Quick question. I know the guy’s name came up a bit in discussions last season regarding the Everett roster…….what’s the current scoop on Douglas Fister? The org jumped him all the way to West Tenn (AA) and he had a solid first outing of the season.
He’s tall and has good command, but his stuff is below average. He’s not an organizational type yet, but he’s a fringey prospect. He can probably succeed in Double-A even with his current repertoire, but to make the leap to the majors, he needs to develop his secondary stuff a bit more.
He’s 3-20 with a hr and two walks…still can’t throw at all or receive. He doesn’t have very many supporters among the coaches in Seattle…as a catcher.
He’s ripping the ball right at people. His defense is fine, and most of the coaches on the staff are Clement supporters. We know you hate this team, Terry, so why don’t you just go root for someone else?
Given the small sample size…how are his outs? Solid line drives? Or weak tappers? 17 flyouts to deep center field mean something different than 17 dribblers to 3rd base. At least, it would to me….
Thanks for the response Dave. One more quick question on Fister.
It sounds like he had better “stuff” (maybe a few more mph on fastball/ better bite on slider) during his 2005 college season, then in 2006 he lost some of his zip and bite.
Anyone in the org know what caused the drop in “stuff” in 2006 and was it something that could be fixed and him show a slight jump back to his 2005 ability?
It’s not that uncommon for college guys to see their velocity drop once they get to the pro ranks. In college, you’re throwing once a week against maybe one or two professional level hitters. In the minors, you’re throwing every four days and you have to pace yourself to get through a line-up where most of the guys can hit a fastball.
We shouldn’t hold out a lot of hope that Fister is going to add a couple MPH to his fastball. He’s probably going to have to learn to pitch in the 86-90 range and use his offspeed stuff and command to succeed.
Dave,
Thanks for more excellent work.
I’ll probably do more Aquasox games than the bigs this year. Anybody you think I should take a special look at other than Mario Martinez,Doug Salinas and Carlos Peguero?