A brief statistical comment
DMZ · April 15, 2007 at 6:26 pm · Filed Under Mariners
(Sorry I’m largely absent, I’m still in pretty bad shape)
Jose Vidro, through 8 games: .212/.257/.394
Carl Everett 2006: .227/.297/.360
He’s over 10% to the point Everett got tossed overboard.
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Sadly, it’s much more unlikely that Vidro will be tossed given his salary over the next few years.
Hope you get well soon, Derek.
Wonder if Hargrove will sit Vidro on the bench during interleague play (ala Everett) or try to sneak him in at second.
He’s had a terrible opening stretch, no doubt. Thank goodness for Ranger pitching, eh Turbo?
Well, at least Vidro believes in dinosaurs…
Well, I kinda freaked out last night when I saw that Vidro’s RC stat was negative. Then I remembered the – GIDP part of that stat and his 6 GIDPs. Hopefully that’ll be positive after ESPNs stats update tonight.
If I remember correctly, Everett hit an early season homer and I thought ‘Maybe this isn’t so bad’. In the immortal words of Rod Stewart…”look how WRONG YOU CAN BE!”.
6: I hear you…and you’re right, I don’t think tonight will ultimately represent any sort of “breakthrough” for Turbo. His skillset is a known commodity. I just hope that Grover comes to his senses and moves the guy down in the order. At least then his suckage will be hidden somewhat.
It’s pretty early to pass judgement.
I may be the lone fan who thinks Vidro could turn out to be a nice pick-up.
Not only are we only 8 games into the season, we have had 5 games post-poned and none of our hitters (minus Johjima) have hit their stride.
I don’t miss Snelling and/or Fruto one bit. And beyond the tangibles that Vidro brings, I think his veteran clubhouse presence will be a nice addition – something Everett didn’t bring.
What? That’s exactly what Everett was supposed to bring. I’m confused.
8. I agree its early, but its not too early to say that Veteran Clubhouse Presence(tm) is at worst non-existent, and at best is an immeasurable commodity.
Try to measure for yourself how much Turbo’s veteran clubhouse presence has affected the Nationals (Expos) over the course of his time there…
Re: #8 (Anacortes_Fan)
Fruto is nothing special and Snelling has had an even worse injury history than Vidro. Though in these parts its common knowledge that Vidro was a poor pickup relative to retaining Doyle, (and I can’t say I disagree too much–Snelling was an appealing force on and off the field,) I just can’t believe that Vidro is as awful a player as some around here make him out to be. His track record, when healthy, shows that he could be a decent #3 hitter. I for one will reserve judgement on him for a month or two while he becomes acclimated to the AL and regains his “sea legs.” His speed is worrisome, though. If he can hit at a #3 level, batting him 5th or 6th and moving Johjima up in the order might benefit the team.
#10 (Carcinogen)
How would any of us fans know how Vidro affected the Montreal/Washington clubhouse? Just guesswork, IMO.
Ah boy, someone opened up a can of worms.
Oh and did I miss something? When did USS Mariner turn into Small Sample Size Theatre with Alistair Zumsteg?
Oh, never mind… That’s the point you were making. I agree.
I can’t throw out a random stat? Come on now.
I’m no statistician, but Edgar started the 1996 campaign with similar numbers to Vidro’s numbers thus far, and Vidro has infinitely more multi homerun games this year than Everett had all of last year.
In no way am I saying Vidro is the next Edgar or Everett reincarnate, but I am saying it’s way too early in the year to write him off.
What happened DMZ? I go on vacation for a week and something happens to you. Good gosh. I’ll troll through the past posts and see what I can find.
Yeah, but Vidro has a 3 year contract. My guess is a mysterious injury will show up at some point ala Cirillo/Spiezio, and then he gets dumped sometime in 2008 when it becomes very clear how awful he is.
In my book, Vidro isn’t as bad as his early numbers indicate.
But I’d be surprised if he could match what Snelling is going to put up in DC. And Vidro is just no bargain for his salary….
I can’t throw out a random stat? Come on now.
Nyet! We must maintain superior integrity at all times, comrade, or else we face a Stat-Abuse Gap!
That’s the point, really. It’s not just that Vidro may not be better at the plate than Snelling; it’s that he’s much worse on the balance sheet. Snelling was free. Vidro…isn’t. Even if Vidro out-hits Snelling, will he out-hit him proportional to the difference in salary? The money they’re paying him could be used in so many other ways (how about a better reliever to replace Mateo? Or so Morrow could be spending his time in Tacoma learning to be a starter so he could come up later and really help the team? Or…. ok, I’ll just stop there)
19: you’ve nailed it. Again, we at this blog are always looking for proxies for FO ineptitude toward which we can direct some vitriol. Turbo is proxy du jour.
However, I would never equate Turbo and Everett…two totally different skillsets. Nonetheless, the mindset that brought us Everett is alive and well, and bringing us guys like Turbo.
I’m much happier w. Turbo than w. Everett. I just don’t like Turbo hitting in the #3 hole. I think Turbo will turn out to be okay, not worth the money, not worth Snelling, but not as bad as Dino Lover.
Vidro’s two home runs today brought his grand flyball total for the season to five. He’s hit the ball in the air five times in eight games, and two of those have gone over the wall. Great sluggers – Thome, Pujols, Ramirez, Dunn – put up HR/F rates of between 25-35%.
Vidro absolutely has to hit the ball in the air more often. The fact that he actually attempted to drive both of McCarthy’s meatballs is a good sign, because up until today, he’s been swinging with the express purpose of hitting the ball on the ground. He had the highest GB% of any hitter in baseball coming into today for a reason.
He simply cannot succeed with the swing he showed the first 7 games of the year. If he actually starts lifting the ball like he did today, he has a chance, but if he reverts back to his first week swing, he’ll be the worst #3 hitter in the history of the game.
Anyone have any thoughts on Beltre? I think we’re going to be very happy with him when this year is over.
I was happy with Beltre last year.
So was I, but I feel like we are in the minority on that one.
Depends on which Beltre you are talking about. ‘Pre-All-Star Beltre’ or ‘Post-All-Star Beltre’. If you want to take the whole season into account, he fit into Bavasi’s vision of a good ballplayer perfectly. That is, he slugged the ball at times, didn’t get on-base very much, struck out a lot, and made a boatload of money.
His 2006 campaign was eerily similar to his career totals. About what should have been expected. Though I’m still listening to arguments of those who contend that he’s a much better player than Joe Crede.
I was happy with 2nd half Beltre.
I was happy with on-topic Vidro
I think his flies will start to come. I don’t have the total ball-in-play data, but from the “official site” his GO/AO is typically 1.1-1.5. If anything, actually trending downward a bit the last couple of years. Through today his season’s mark is 2.83.
He won’t be great, likely not good, and possibly not even decent, but he won’t hit grounders at the same rate, either.
…Unless he actually intends to do so.
I was happy.
Check that out! DMZ’s happy with Vidro.
Though I’m still listening to arguments of those who contend that he’s a much better player than Joe Crede.
Offensively, they were basically a push. Crede had 87 Runs Created while Beltre had 90 Runs Created. Beltre was 5-10 runs better than Crede with the glove.
Overall, Beltre was worth about one win more than Joe Crede last year. In Crede’s career year.
Yea, I’ll take Beltre.
[ot]
Vidro kicked Snelling’s ass today, at least.
Why does #35 get the brackets treatment while #34 brazenly remains? Diplomatic immunity? Just curious.
[ot]
At least when Turbo needs to be replaced in the lineup, the M’s will only have to re-acquire Eduardo Perez. They planned ahead and kept Broussard on the squad. Good thinking.
By the way, what would happen if groundball Turbo faced flyball/linedrive Weaver? I imagine some sort of event such as the Earth ceasing to rotate on its axis.
I left all the Beltre comments up. You can’t always prevent hijacks.
Snelling
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA
2007 25 WSN NL 10 19 2 5 1 0 1 4 0 0 3 3 .263
OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
.440 .474 153 9 0 0 1 3 1
#39 preventing web board hijacks, sounds like a PSA (public service announcement)
“Got something to say. No one starting a topic even close to what is on your mind? Need to say it anyways? Please, try to stay on topic.”
Jose Vidro, through 8 games: .212/.257/.394
Carl Everett 2006: .227/.297/.360
Chris Snelling 2007: .263/.440/.474
some other DH’s numbers
Mike Piazza OAK .300/.340/.460
Jim Thome CHW .273/.442/.515
David Ortiz BOS .263/.364/.579
Travis Hafner CLE .233/.351/.367
Frank Thomas TOR .190/.306/.262
Mike Sweeney KAN .172/.242/.172
I imagine those 2 homers today give him a longer stint in the 3 hole than desired.
He really needs to be moved down.
He simply cannot succeed with the swing he showed the first 7 games of the year.
3 double plays in 7 games. Over a season…well, that’s pretty awful. Mindbogglingly so.
Thing is, McCarthy’s throwing 89 MPH crap, but I dunno if that will be most of the stuff Vidro sees.
He really needs to be moved down.
I like Tacoma or West Tennessee.
How about that traffic in McCall Idaho?
Or at least move him down the line-up… swap him with Johjima!
Vidro schmidro. The real question is: “How do we get the kind of weather event needed to cancel Weaver’s start tomorrow?”
I’m no statistician, but Edgar started the 1996 campaign with similar numbers to Vidro’s numbers thus far, and Vidro has infinitely more multi homerun games this year than Everett had all of last year.
In no way am I saying Vidro is the next Edgar or Everett reincarnate, but I am saying it’s way too early in the year to write him off.
No, no, Vidro is exactly like Edgar. Well, except that Vidro doesn’t walk. And he doesn’t (Sunday excepted) hit for power. And he doesn’t hit doubles because he hits groundballs instead of liners.
But otherwise, Vidro is exactly like Edgar. Well, at least the Edgar at the end of his career, when he was at his slowest.
For what its worth, MGL is projecting Vidro to be a league average hitter this year. In other words a slightly below average DH.
Now for that kind of production he costs waaaay to much money. Especially when you factor in alternatives that were already here like Snelling or Broussard. He probably won’t be a total black hole though.
Vidro’s GB% right now is 65.5% (05′ was 44% and 06′ was 46%), as funny as it sounds its a good sign these past few days Vidro has actually started to get the ball up and out of the infield. I think its reasonable to assume that he should be able to raise his Line drive % up from 13% to around 20%.
The thing that seems to be a little concerning (besides his age, injury history, speed, etc) is the that he appears to give in to good pitching and just rollover on the ball. Where as with junkball pitching he capitalizes. So i think his slugging may be around .300 against adequate pitching, but he may get that little extra 100 points taking advantage of junk. That’s fine for a second baseman, but i’d expact a little more from a DH.
Jose Vidro, through 8 games: .212/.257/.394
Carl Everett 2006: .227/.297/.360
Chris Snelling 2007: .263/.440/.474
some other DH’s numbers
Mike Piazza OAK .300/.340/.460
Jim Thome CHW .273/.442/.515
David Ortiz BOS .263/.364/.579
Travis Hafner CLE .233/.351/.367
Frank Thomas TOR .190/.306/.262
Mike Sweeney KAN .172/.242/.172
I hate the front office as much as ANYONE here.. However, I think with regards to Vidro we still need to give it a little more time. Comparing his numbers through 8 games is just stupid. Besides, the front office has given us PLENTY of reasons to hate them over the last 5 years – so we don’t need to start presuming reasons.
Using this information, I can conclude that Mike Sweeney is the worst hitter in Major League Baseball and Chris Snelling will out-slug Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza this year..
I suppose we should look at the first set of at-bats by Vidro on the basis of pitchers faced. Though he is an extreme groundballer, perhaps the pitcher’s tendencies also factored into his performance…
One additional note: those 2 HR were Vidro’s first and second extra base hits of the year. That seems terribly fluky, that his only XBH went for HR. Small sample size and all that, but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see his SLG, bad as it already is, actually regress from here, as he returns to his slap single hitting ways.
Yes, it’s small sample size theatre… but it isn’t encouraging that Vidro’s fimnly put himself in the McCracken/Colbrunn/Cirillo/Aurilia/Spiezio/Everett/Perez line of players on the wrong side of 30 who flop miserably as Mariners, and that the M’s inexplicably acquire at significant cost.
He hasn’t had enough time to do anything firmly yet. I don’t expect him to be a world beater, and the move was bad, and will get worse over time.
This year though, I don’t think he is going to be terrible.
The one positive thing I will say is that if the majority of our hitters are hitting below their career average so far this year and other than the King we have not had any spectacular pitching performances and we are still 5 – 3. If Vidro / the rest of the team minus Kenji can just slightly pick up ther performance we might be looking at a good chance to contend.
This year though, I don’t think he is going to be terrible.
Here, it’s chart time:
Player year before coming to M’s and then time as M
(Not using Cirillo because Coors screws up his stats- but even road stats there’s a serious dropoff)
Aurilia: .277/.325/.410 .241/.304/.337
Spiezio: .265/.326/.453 .215/.288/.346
Everett: .251/.311/.435 .227/.297/.360
Vidro: .289/.348/.395 ???/???/???
At some point, you’d hope the team would notice that gosh, importing mediocre and aging hitters into the best pitcher’s park in the AL doesn’t work so well.
The other thing is that in Aurilia, Cirillo and Spiezio’s case, they looked considerably better once they left Safeco.
Cirillo and Aurilia have looked better in large part due to park effects and, in Cirillo’s case, platooning. Cirillo was the same lousy hitter in San Diego and has been useless against RHP since leaving Seattle.
Fair enough, but it doesn’t excuse the Mariners giving old players in their decline phase duties that FAR exceed their abilities.
Its pretty easy to take the 4 moves that have worked out the worst for the Mariners and then say “Look they are dumb, this won’t work out either!”
I’m not defending the Vidro move, I think it will blow up in our faces before his contract is up. I do think he hasn’t had enough time yet to prove to us that he will be a total failure this year.
I think he will be a roughly league avg hitter this year, and below average for a DH (Which is unacceptable considering other alternatives and cost). I do not expect he will be the failure that Cirillo, Aurillia, Spiezio, or Everett were. At least not this year.
Fruto is nothing special
Fruto might be the best pitcher in the Nationals organisation.
Though that says more about the Nationals than it does about Fruto.
There’s a relevant bit in the P.I. about Vidro’s sudden change in fortunes:
If Vidro keeps listening to Pentland, it could be good for all involved!
I do not expect he will be the failure that Cirillo, Aurillia, Spiezio, or Everett were.
Right, but did you expect those 4 guys to turn into complete piles of poo once they put on an M’s uniform? What’s different about Vidro that means he won’t have this happen to him?
I don’t think it’s impossible that Vidro could be “OK” (in the sense you express), but the guy is a lead weight on the basepaths comparable to Edgar and Ole at their slowest, without being anywhere near their class as a hitter (and note that Edgar and Ole’s last seasons as M’s were not exactly awesome, either). These aren’t good signs.
It’s quite possible the M’s may have bought another decline/collapse phase of a veteran hitter, yet again. That’s all I’m saying.
Oh, not at all, especially when it appears that the front office understands the mistake yet cannot stop itself from repeating it. I just wanted to avoid perpetuating the myth that Aurilia and Cirillo significantly improved after leaving Seattle when for the most part there were external factors masking the same flaws they showed here.
Ah, I remember the stories from when Cirillo would work with the hitting coach, and they thought they’d solved his problems… those were the days.
Yeah, just like the stories from when Bad Norm Charlton said he was tipping his pitches (which always preceded the Charlton needs surgery stories).
Yeah, the “pitching coach” farie dust is a wonderful explanation, until it isn’t.
Personally, I’m starting to think that the Mariners have a secret agreement with the MLPA — in the same way they go along with the Commish on not busting draft “slots,” they also are going along with the Players Association to provide a sort of “pre-retirement” home for former hitters: a half-way house on the way out of pro ball, where these creaky veterans can still put on their uniforms and pretend they’re still effective players. Kind of like those civil war re-enactments (including firing blanks). It’s just unfortunate there’s an actual game going on around them that counts in the standings.
I’m not sure what help Pentland is going to be – Vidro already does a fine job grounding out to second base.
At the very least getting some input on what he is doing wrong and working on it is a good sign.
I love it when small sample size is used to show Vidro sucks. But, isn’t his BABIP like .185 right now? So how would his numbers look if his BABIP was in line and what should we expect it to look like when he regresses to the mean?
That BABIP should improve, Bilbo. The problem is that it won’t improve much if he actually intends to keep scooting grounders to 2B/SS. He’s too slow to beat out anything in the infield, and the grass here doesn’t exactly give his grounders the giddy-up that they may have gained during his heydey in Olympic Stadium. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?
I’m rooting for him to do well as much as anyone is. If he does well I’ll be happy for him and the team. I just don’t see it coming.
Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?
I’m more than a bit skeptical that an extremely slow DH with groundball tendencies and no particular history of any power, who also hits in a tough ballpark is going to hit .300. I’ll think he will be doing well if he gets to .270/.330/.400 with 20 GIDP over a full season, which would be as bad in it’s own way as Everett was for us in 2006 (the small bump in OBP and SLG getting negated by the increased GIDP).
At this point, my guess is unless Vidro is showing me to be off base and he’s hitting like it’s 2000-2001 again, he gets replaced in the starting lineup by the All-Star break, whether it’s by Broussard or calling up Jones, or whatever.
Not for nothing but there are a couple-three game worn Ms’ Doyle jerseys for sale at the Safeco team store. Around $200 per. For those with serious man-crushes.
I think any comparison between Vidro and Everett has to include Doyle, as he was the logical DH for this next year. I’m not sure though that even the Nats are really going to give the kid a chance so that we could see over the larger sample size what he could really do (like, you know, if he stayed healthy over the course of an entire ML season, and got playing time and all).
Hope you’re right. But this front office just hates to admit its mistakes. I see them giving him at least a year’s worth of rope. They seem to be more concerned about saving face than making the smart move…even when that face has egg all over it.
The rope, though belongs to Bavasi and Hargrove. Who can blame Vidro for signing a long-term contract when someone waves money in his face?
If Small Sample Size Theatre is the prevailing norm, Snelling’s 0-4 tonight makes the comparison:
Snelling — .217 .379 .391
Vidro — .212 .257 .394
/Not saying anything. Just reporting.
Those 120 points of OBP are worth a ton.
I remember when Cirillo would say he could only ever succeed in Safeco if he put on 25 lb. of muscle (ie. steroids).
76: just for fun, .379 is more helpful than .257
What’s helpful about not making an out over 47% more often? Well, it’s probably 50%+ considering DPs. Anyway.