Maybe try a four seamer?
To read the postgame comments of the Mariners after another miserable outing from Jeff Weaver last night, the guy is the second coming of Derek Lowe. Take a look at some of these quotes, courtesy of Geoff Baker:
“I’ve had success throwing my slider to him,” Weaver said. “I figured that, after throwing some sinkers to get ahead, he may have changed his approach to look for that sinker. But he never changed. He sat on the slider each and every time and hit them good.”
“This was a little bit more frustrating than the first time,” Weaver said. “I felt that I was out there with some good stuff, started getting some ground balls I was looking for. I wasn’t falling behind, I was getting ahead of hitters.
And there’s this one from the P-I.
“I was able to get ahead in the count most of the time and I went back to my sinker to get a lot of ground balls,” Weaver said.
So, Weaver threw a bunch of two-seam fastballs yesterday that he thought qualified as “good stuff”, he was trying to induce ground balls, and he just made a mistake by throwing Torii Hunter a slider that ruined his outing. The stats back up part of his premise – he got 14 groundballs compared to 6 flyballs and 4 line drives, so he posted a 58% GB rate for the game. You know the last time he got 14 groundballs in one game? September 27, 2005. He did it twice in ‘05, also pulling the trick on opening day that year. Before that, he did it on September 18th, 2002 and July 27th, 2002.
And that’s it. Last night was the fifth time in the last five years that Weaver has gotten that many groundballs in one start.
So, despite what you hear, Jeff Weaver has not been a groundball pitcher throughout his career. His GB%, by season, since 2002: 44%, 39.9%, 40%, 40.7%, and 39.7%. The league average GB% is 43%. Jeff Weaver has a four year track record of getting less groundballs than the average pitcher. If he’s decided to turn himself into a sinkerballer, this is a new development.
And it’s not going to work. There’s a difference between throwing a worm-burner inducing two-seam fastball of the type that Derek Lowe, Brandon Webb, Chien-Ming Wang, Roy Halladay, and Tim Hudson throw, getting good velocity and movement on a pitch that is often in the 90-93 range, and having Jeff Weaver throw 85-88 MPH meatballs over the heart of the plate hoping to induce contact.
Just because you can put a finger on two seams and throw a pitch does not make you a sinkerballer, Jeff. You’re not going to survive in the major leagues throwing 85-88. Your pitches don’t have enough movement and you don’t have the kind of command or mound presence to know how to live off below average stuff. See all those balls being ripped to the wall in your first two starts? That’s what happens when you throw a sinker that doesn’t have enough velocity to get under the hitter’s bat. Those aren’t fluke hits – you’re getting torched because the pitch isn’t major league quality.
You have a four seam fastball – we all saw it in the World Series when you struck out 14 guys in 13 innings in the games that got you this $8 million paycheck. You can throw 90-93 and locate it well enough to get it past people occassionally.
Try it. It worked well enough for you to have a couple decent years as a flyball, four-seam guy back in 2004 and 2005. This whole reinvent yourself with the two-seam fastball experiment? It didn’t work in spring training, and it’s time to chuck it out the window.
You’re Jeff Weaver, and you’re not a groundball pitcher. Try not to suck your way out of the major leagues trying to prove that you are.
The second quote there is about Ramon Ortiz, I’m almost positive:
Whoops – good catch. I’ve taken it out.
I’m wondering if this is a strategy thing the Mariners are pushing on him, similar to the aggressive baserunning last year, and the “Felix must establish his fastball” last year.
I’m all for coaching certain strategies, but isn’t good coaching more focused on playing to the abilities and strengths of the player, rather than the player fitting into the strategy of the team? Can’t put the round peg into the square hole.
Rafael Chaves loves the two seamer, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this was something the M’s were emphasizing with Weaver. However, Chaves has been good at letting pitchers work to their strengths – they haven’t forced Washburn to start throwing two seamers, for instance.
Then is there a point that Chaves would go to him and say “Hey, whatever happened to that 4-seamer you used to throw?” I don’t know much about Weaver personally, so I don’t know if he’ll be reluctant to change from this strategy (though who wouldn’t change from a strategy that clearly isn’t working?).
Does that happen in the major leagues, or is major league pitching coaching more about mechanics?
At least it’s King Felx day!
Is Weaver #5/5 in our rotation even if he starts throwing the four-seamer for some success?
You know what’s kind of cool? It appears we just have to keep rotating which of our “other” four starters has a decent outing to stay competitive in this division. I mean, Felix seems to be poised to give us a good shot every fifth day, and so we just need 2/4 of the rest of the team to keep us in it enough to win two more times in the following four games and we’ve suddenly become competitive. Hitting disclaimers apply.
I believe Batista (thanks for counseling patience on him, Dave, though he was still shaky last outing), Washburn, and maybe Ramirez can give us a shot every other time they take the ball. Shoot, even Weaver (or his eventual replacement if this continues) can keep us in a ball game here or there.
Is a .600 clip unreasonable? If we can offset a few inevitable slumps with a run or two, maybe we’re playing tag with the A’s all year? Unless/until a 13 game losing streak comes along, I feel good about our chances of being in this thing. If not, at least Felix can give us an excellent shot at stopping whatever the other guys start. We go from Weaver anguish to Felix ecstasy in a day’s time! My depression promises to be short-lived!
I’m sure Chaves and Weaver will talk about a game plan before his next start, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Chaves suggested some changes. Pitchers are always tinkering when they’re struggling. If he gets pounded again in his next start, though, he might not have time to make any big changes, because the M’s aren’t going to let him run a 10+ ERA for more than a month.
I was at the game last night. Normally the team puts up the current pitcher’s stats in right field. Last night there were no stats until Weaver was relieved, then the team started posting them. Just thought I’d pass that along. Who do you suppose made that decision?
Probably the guy that wants to keep fans from booing their own pitcher.
It’s clear to me that, from the quotes, Weaver sees this as a mistake in approach to one guy problem. I do think the team will allow him a little more latitude than they might otherwise because of the missed games as well.
Hargrove’s quotes indicate he believes Weaver is getting more into his groove, and so Rafael might be our only hope to recognize Weaver’s mid-80’s stuff is what’s killing him, and to suggest an increased reliance on the four-seamer. Weaver and Grover are at least talking as if it was one bad decision in an otherwise promising outing, and that means the status quo will probably be what we see.
How can Weaver not understand what revived his career at the end of last year? Why would he decide to abandon it altogether? Could there be velocity problems on his four-seamer we don’t know about yet, or a nagging problem the makes him reluctant to throw it?
From a completely uneducated perspective, I immediately assumed arm problems as the reason for the drop in velocity. I have no idea how to recognize a two-seamer or anything so that’s all I had to go by.
Maybe Weaver’s arm falls off?
I’d be willing to bet that Grover understands as well as anyone that Weaver is not going to succeed in the majors throwing 85mph; Jamie Moyer can do that, but there’s no way Weaver can reinvent himself as Jamie. As such, I’m not too worried that the PTB will just let this slide.
From his quotes, Jeff Weaver sounds like he’s channeling Ryan Franklin.
I agree with The Ancient Mariner, what Grover says to the media isn’t necessarily what he thinks. He seems to be the type that will say stuff like “He is coming around” or “He just got unlucky” or other some other cliche to get through the post game comments.
He knows Weaver has been pitching poorly, and hopefully understands the approach Weaver has used so far isn’t a good match with his skill set.
I was at the game and thought Weaver pitched better than his numbers suggest he did. He got lit up right away in the first but settled down after that, getting ahead of a lot of batters, which I think is a good sign. He was one lousy strike away from getting out of the bases loaded jam with minimal damage (one run).
Don’t get me wrong, he got hit hard but he pretty much held it together and kept the M’s in it until the Hunter slam. In my opinion he’s not that far away from finding himself.
“In my opinion he’s not that far away from finding himself. . . ”
Yeah, so was Joel Pineiro. 2 innings without an extra base hit (and a higher than normal percentage of ground outs) doesn’t make me overly enthusiastic:
1st – 2 doubles and a triple
2nd – no hits
3rd – a double
4th – a double
5th – 3 singles, a grand slam, and a double.
6th (with the game out of reach) – no hits
Truly. Grover isn’t the type to knife someone in the back in the press—and that really is a good thing. Let’s not rip him for those kind of statements (let’s do it for saying he brought in a flyball pitcher to induce a ground ball….).
From his quotes, Jeff Weaver, sounds like he’s Keith Richards-ing the ashes of Ryan Franklin’s career…
I didn’t chart pitches or anything like that last night, but it sure seemed like the times he got in the most trouble were when he threw that awful slider. It was just all over the place last night, and everytime he hung it, they killed it.
Makes me think they came in looking for that thing — either that, or maybe he’s tipping.
Most of the velocity readings on the broadcast I saw on the fastball said 90+. The fastball didn’t look nearly as bad to these eyes as it apparently looked to everyone else …
Speaking of the grand slam —
Man, I hate seeing them intentionally walk the bases loaded. The pitcher has to put it in there, and the hitter knows it, ugh. Hunter wasn’t fooled.
So, if we were to start cataloguing games that Grover lost for us this year, can we give out partial games? I mean, I was only following the game on gameday, but it seemed clear to me that it was time to pull Weaver after he gave up those first two hits in the 4th. On the other hand, I can wanting to see if Weaver could get out of the situation early in the season, and it’s not like our bullpen is really a solid bet to put up zeros the rest of the way.
But my question isn’t so much about whether or not Hargrove lost *this* game, but more about how we keep track and whether or not it’s fair to assign 1/4 or 1/3 losses to him, assuming that some of them we would have won without some dumbass move of his, but that some of them we would have lost anyway even if he did the perfect thing the whole time. Or are we stuck only assigning losses to Hargrove in extremely egregious circumstances like bringing in Mateo to get the groundball in a crucial moment? Can we even do that? How do we come up with a number?
20, but did you really want to see him pitch to Morneau there? I know I didn’t.
I didn’t chart pitches or anything like that last night, but it sure seemed like the times he got in the most trouble were when he threw that awful slider. It was just all over the place last night, and everytime he hung it, they killed it.
His slider was actually his best pitch last night. Hunter killed a bad one, but it was far more effective than his two-seamer.
Makes me think they came in looking for that thing — either that, or maybe he’s tipping.
Who had April 18th in the “Blame tipping pitches for a sucky pitcher sucking” pool? You’d think after hearing this excuse every year from guys like Norm Charlton, Bobby Ayala, Joel Pineiro, and Gil Meche that maybe, just maybe, people would start to catch on that tipping pitches is a retroactive excuse applied to pitchers who lack talent.
Most of the velocity readings on the broadcast I saw on the fastball said 90+. The fastball didn’t look nearly as bad to these eyes as it apparently looked to everyone else.
I saw exactly three pitches the whole night that hit 90, and one that hit 91 (way up out of the strike zone). He threw almost all two-seam fastballs, and they were consistently 85-89.
You’d think after hearing this excuse every year from guys like . . . Bobby Ayala . . .
Well, there’s no need to break out the nasty curse words, Dave. At least save Ayala for when somebody starts insulting people’s mothers.
I got one question. Is this guy really going to start again on Sunday? I can’t believe the only M’s game I going to watch in person is going to be pitched by this bozo.
I got one question. Is this guy really going to start again on Sunday? I can’t believe the only M’s game I going to watch in person is going to be pitched by this bozo.
To be fair, it won’t just be pitched by Weaver. I’d bet you’re also going to see Jake Woods, Julio Mateo, Chris Reitsma, and maybe even Sean White again.
Maybe the team doesn’t understand DIPS and they think that his .447 BABIP isn’t his fault.
Maybe the team doesn’t understand DIPS and they think that his .447 BABIP isn’t his fault.
Well, to be somewhat fair to DIPS, the .447 BABIP isn’t totally his fault. He has been somewhat unlucky in that he’s not getting away with his mistakes – pretty much every meatball he’s thrown has been clobbered. Even good hitters miss good pitches to hit occassionally, and his true talent level isn’t this bad, so he’s had some bad luck in a certain way.
Of course, you can be both terrible and unlucky, and that’s the combination that we’ve seen from Weaver in his first two starts. He doesn’t just need his luck to turn around – he needs to also throw better pitches.
I think the best quote by far is this one from Torii Hunter:
“I’m uncomfortable hitting against him,” said Hunter, who said he had no idea of his stats against Weaver. “I got lucky.”
It’s very similar to me being “uncomfortable” receiving a massage while drinking a mojito and listening to the sounds of the ocean.
Given these pitches, I think the .447 might be his fault. DIPS calculations assume a certain quality of pitcher (major-league calibre) – I couldn’t stand on a mound and induce a .300 BABIP – and Weaver so far isn’t that quality of pitcher.
Right now Weaver’s pitching less well than those position players who throw relief innings in blowouts. Mark Grace was a better pitcher than the Jeff Weaver we’re seeing.
Ibanez in left is not doing him any favors. Of course, that only explains away maybe .040 BABIP.
Who had April 18th in the “Blame tipping pitches for a sucky pitcher sucking†pool? You’d think after hearing this excuse every year from guys like Norm Charlton, Bobby Ayala, Joel Pineiro, and Gil Meche that maybe, just maybe, people would start to catch on that tipping pitches is a retroactive excuse applied to pitchers who lack talent.
I didn’t say he was … I just said everytime he put one in the zone, they killed it. You said yourself that even good hitters miss bad pitches once in a while. The Twins didn’t miss ANY bad pitches last night …
And I totally, completely disagree with your assessment on the slider. That thing was all over the place. When he threw it out of the zone, he missed so badly it didn’t even induce a swing. When he threw it in the zone, it was belt high and over the middle of the plate.
Nuss, he was throwing the slider off the outside corner to right handed hitters and drawing a lot of swings and misses as a result. Cuddyer and Hunter were having a lot of trouble with the pitch.
The slider was the only thing Weaver had capable of missing bats last night.
#22
At least if they pitch to Morneau with first base open Weaver has the option to be careful and maybe work out of the strike zone a bit more. At least give the hitter the option to swing at something he shouldn’t in an attempt to drive in runs. If Morneau had chosen to be disciplined rather than swing at stuff he shouldn’t swing at, fine, the result is the same, bases loaded. Maybe you induce him to put the ball on the ground to 3rd or something by pitching to him.
Nuss, he was throwing the slider off the outside corner to right handed hitters and drawing a lot of swings and misses as a result. Cuddyer and Hunter were having a lot of trouble with the pitch.
The slider was the only thing Weaver had capable of missing bats last night.
Great; instead of an 8.3 million dollar starter, we have an 8.3 million LOOGY who throws right. Awesome.
And I totally, completely disagree with your assessment on the slider. That thing was all over the place. When he threw it out of the zone, he missed so badly it didn’t even induce a swing. When he threw it in the zone, it was belt high and over the middle of the plate.
If you have MLB.tv, go back and watch the reply of the game. He probably got half of his swings and misses on the slider, and he painted the corner with it to right-handers for a strike several times.
I think you’re just remembering incorrectly.
#33
Except, of course, for that 0-2 slider in Cuddyer’s wheelhouse that he damn-near exited stage left in the 1st. Keeping the slide-piece down is paramount for Weaver – and every pitcher above tee-ball, for that matter. He didn’t last night and he didn’t in his first start.
got home from my night class in hopes of seeing weaver still going and throwing well…instead found white with a 7-2 mountain to climb…worst thing is, i have tickets to the series this weekend in anaheim for saturday and sunday…i can take watching horacio, but is there ANY chance they’ll skip weaver on sunday and start the KING? that would make my season to be there when he blows them away at home…worst thing about living in cali are the angels and A’s fans…
He IS channeling Ryan Franklin! Next thing you know, he’s gonna get shelled by the Angels for 12 runs and then complain about getting no run support.
Hey, I once saw Franklin one-hit the Angels at Safeco…
I think. Maybe I’m dreaming.
ESPN SportsCenter had a Weaver slider in its top 5 pitches of the day segment last night. They made a snarky remark about his overall performance for the game, but allowed that he still deserved the highlight due to how nasty the slider was.
On the flip side, Torii Hunter’s grand slam was highlighted shortly before or after, so Weaver might not want to save a copy of that particular broadcast…
It’s possible. I’ve got a new baby that’s prone to crying … maybe I just looked up at all the wrong times!
According to the FSN gun, he touched 91 a few times each inning, mostly his fastball was a paltry 88-89 MPH. I have no idea whether that gun can be trusted.
The only thing about having Weaver as the 5th starter, is that the next start we get to watch brilliance in action with young Mr. Felix. Oh ya bring in Baek as the 5
Since every sports figure has a shortened nickname, how about Helix for our number 1 starter?
Yeah, the fact that Cuddyer tripled off a hanging slider that was almost dead centre doesn’t negate the first two pitches of the at bat where he swing and missed at pitches that actually moved.
And I’m not trying to defend Weaver at all here.
46. I agree. You just can’t miss in that spot 0-2. Waste one – or two – for God’s sake.
ok, so Weaver is now being thrown under the bus for ‘not looking enthused’ …
If Weaver does indeed have a 4-seamer, then the 2-seamer could be a very effective change-up – thrown about 20% of the time:
50% 4-Seamer (assuming he is low 90’s)
30% Slider
20% 2-Seam change-up
For those that watched closer than I did after the stinky salami episode: what was up with White?
Do you think that Weaver is worried about being a fly ball picther when it seems like our LF and RF are so slow. Ibanez tries hard, but if he had been average speed he could’ve caught the triple in the 1st Inning.
Also, did anyone sense that Weaver got a little out of his head in the 1st inning when it appeared that the Ump was calling a tight strike zone. That isn’t an excuse, but Weaver definately looked rattled during the first two batters…maybe that was another reason for the “meatballs”
And for all of you who don’t know:
If a big league pitcher is hanging pitches or missing spots, it means he isn’t good enough. Weaver didn’t intentionally or accidently miss: that where he throws it. What I mean is that his pitches are not an aberration – they are a reflection of his current ability. Some pitchers can make adjustments. Dave suggests that Weaver make an adjustment in the type of pitches he throws – I hope that does it.
As far as Weaver’s attitude, I deal with those types on a constant basis. Weaver is one of those guys that is a dynamic personality when everything is going his way. When it doesn’t go his way, he gets sullen and withdrawn. It is a personality flaw reflected in his general behavior over many seasons. The guy doesn’t have a good rep.
Just wanted to let everyone know that USS Mariner got a mention in a Jerry Cransick article on ESPN.com. Gives credit to USSM for coming up with “King” as the nickname for Felix.
My friend and I watching the game were wondering why he thought a waist-high 78 MPH hanging slider was “good stuff”. Looked like pretty crappy stuff to me.
One of Weavers big problems last night was he threw everything on the same plane. The slider was breaking but mostly horizontally and his two seam fastball wasn’t sinking it was just slurving.
He needs to go to the 4 seam fastball just to throw some pitches in a different zone plane to make the hitters adjust vertically.
he needs to give the money back or to Baek and leave town…lol…
Anybody looking at what Meche is doing today?
Pitcher IP PC H ER BB K
Meche 6.2 94 4 1 3 6
There is an article from Crasnick on the ESPN baseball page about KING FELIX…
oops, meant to say, thanks for the Shout Out Jerry
56. Yeah, just heard about that…
ok, so Weaver is now being thrown under the bus for ‘not looking enthused’ …
I saw Weaver pitch in the olds days, when he was still with Detroit. Dude’s never been enthused. He’s played the “maybe I’m slightly crazy, do you want to find out?” card most of his career. Problem is he’s never been a consistent enough pitcher to pull it off (the best player I can think of in recent years to use it effectively is Randy – a giant, coming at you with “Mr. Snappy” or “Mr. Snap Your Head Off,” for instance – with just enough creepy guy who lives in the woods near your house to make his nasty stuff even more intimidating). Clemens has some serious screw loose game on the mound too.
Weaver’s attempts really just make him seem like the partied-out drifter who might walk up to a bonfire of people he doesn’t know to borrow a beer and a smoke. Next morning you find him crashed on your couch eating your Lucky Charms. He’s just off enough that you don’t want to throw him out, so in the end you hope he just moves on to some other party the next night. I wouldn’t mind playing poker with the way he reacts to events, though.
I just think of all the things we could have done with that 8mill. I hope he starts doing something to change his approach.
Meche update:
Pitcher IP PC H ER BB K
Meche 7.1 108 6 1 3 6
He’s struggling now…might get hammered this inning.
nope. 8 ip
Anyway, I still wouldn’t have paid 55 mil for him.
Would I?
More to the point, I think in retrospect, I would have paid 8 mil…
Way to tie that back into the thread. Kudos.
Dave, can you talk a little about how we as fans can readily distinguish the four-seamer from the two-seamer — differences in release point, arm slot, break, location, etc.?
Let us assume that Weaver, while not as bad as he has looked in his initial appearances, is still a bad starting pitcher. Do the M’s start skipping his starts when off days allow the other pitchers to continue on their regular four days rest? (By the way, last night would have been a perfect example of when to do this.)
Just a quick note to Mariner fans,
Gardenhire did not tell Mauer to bunt runners over before Hunter’s Grand Slam. Mauer occasionally likes to lay a bunt down the third base line when the 3rd baseman is playing back trying for a base hit. Jojima jumped on the ball as it died in grass for the sac out. It worked out in the end, but I’m sure Gardy was just as confused as every other Twins fan at his “sacrifice” bunt.
BTW, can we please bypass King Felix tonight? Is Jeff Weaver ready to pitch again yet?
Also, someone wondered why Morneau was batting fifth in our lineup. Gardy likes to go left-right-left with Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau. Cuddyer had 108 rbi’s in the cleanup spot last year, and Morneau still knocked in 130 men out of the 5 hole.
Dave, can you talk a little about how we as fans can readily distinguish the four-seamer from the two-seamer — differences in release point, arm slot, break, location, etc.?
Arm slot and release point should theoretically be the same. Now, Weaver has about five different arm slots he pitches from, so not every two seam or four seam fastball is going to come in from the same angle, but the pitch itself isn’t determined by where you release the ball. It’s simply a difference in grip that causes the ball to move differently and at a different rate of speed.
The two seam fastball is generally going to come in about 3-4 MPH slower than a pitchers four seam fastball, so if you see a pitch that’s clearly not a breaking ball that is consistently below standard top velocity, there’s a decent chance it’s a two-seamer. A lot of times, you’ll hear an announcer say that a pitcher “took a little off that one” when the pitcher really just threw a two-seam fastball instead of a four-seam fastball.
The other key is to watch the movement. Last night with Weaver, for instance, you’d see his fastballs all had a bit of a loop to them. He was using the two-seamer’s natural sink to induce groundballs, but because he doesn’t throw it particularly hard, the movement is easier to spot. A guy like Felix, who throws his ridiculous two seam fastball as fast as 96, is tougher to differentiate because the velocity makes the movement less obvious. Felix, like most dominant groundball guys, throws a very hard sinker that starts diving almost as soon as it leaves the hand. Weaver, like Pineiro last year, is throwing it at a velocity that allows the drop in plane to be a little more obvious, to both us and the hitters.
The P-I put out a PDF file on pitching grips with some illustrations that are pretty helpful. I’d recommend looking it over if you haven’t seen it before.
Dave, did you chart the game?
Gameday data doesn’t seem to support your assertions. While their tracking system was turned off until midway through his second inning, the data indicates Weaver predominantly used his 4 seamer.
Hard stuff: (34 pitches) mean: 89.7 mph; high: 93 mph; low: 86 mph;
Offspeed stuff: (33 pitches) mean: 78.1 mph; high 84 mph; low: 71 mph;
There were approximately 5 pitches that were 83-84 mph that could’ve been a two seamer or a hard slider (lots of movement). There were also another 4 pitches that were between 86-88 that could’ve been twoseamers. At most he threw 10 pitches that might have been two seamers so it looks like the vast majority of his fastballs were of the fourseam variety last night. Of the pitches where data was reported, Weaver hit at least 90 mph twenty times with several more pitches at 89 mph.
what am I missing?
“I’m uncomfortable hitting against him,†said Hunter, who said he had no idea of his stats against Weaver. “I got lucky.â€
“I’m uncomfortable hitting against him,†said Hunter, who said he had no idea of his stats against Weaver. “I got lucky.â€
Let me get out my secret decoder ring……
OK…….”Please do not remove him from the rotation,” said Hunter “We play the Mariners again and I want 2 more extra base hits and 3 RBIs, I am gonna be a free agent again someday.”
Gameday data doesn’t seem to support your assertions. While their tracking system was turned off until midway through his second inning, the data indicates Weaver predominantly used his 4 seamer.
While I love the idea of the technology gameday is using, I don’t totally trust it just yet. I didn’t chart the game, but I was watching to see if I could pick up on something, and while I know the Fox gun isn’t the pinnacle of reliability (its usually 1-2 MPH too fast), there’s no way I missed 20+ pitches of 90 MPH or greater.
Since we don’t have a ton of gameday data, we’re not exactly sure what they’re tracking just yet. When I watch the game and think I see a lot of two-seam fastballs, Weaver posts the 5th highest GB total of his career, and then repeatedly says after the game that he was using his sinker to setup his slider, I think we can safely assume that he really was throwing a two-seam fastball, and that the Gameday data isn’t totally reliable quite yet.
Perhaps that’s part of his problem? Using 5 different arm slots is 5 times the amount of ways to mess your pitching mechanics, it would seem. Wouldn’t he conceivably have days where he’s pitching well at arm slot X, but is all over the place with arm slot Y?
Perhaps that’s part of his problem? Using 5 different arm slots is 5 times the amount of ways to mess your pitching mechanics, it would seem. Wouldn’t he conceivably have days where he’s pitching well at arm slot X, but is all over the place with arm slot Y?
Command has more to do with release point than arm slot, but yes, having multiple arm slots makes it harder for your muscle memory to develop a consistent release point, and theoretically, it should hurt his command to some degree. More than that, however, I’m not a fan of the multiple arm slots because it allows hitters to pick up on pitches easier. If he’s set on going to the Jeff Nelson slider, where he throws his body towards third base, it won’t take long for hitters to see the change in delivery and say “hey, its a slider, I think I won’t swing.”
Of course, the counter to that is that the hitter doesn’t get as many chances to line up the ball coming out of the same spot in the pitcher’s hand, and the varying deliveries give them more to think about. Orlando Hernandez has been using this kind of multi-delivery method for years, with pretty good results.
I wouldn’t recommend it to a young pitcher, but at this point in his career, it’s not something worth changing, either.
Don’t forget the data source for speed readings: is Gameday using the stadium gun for its readings? Ditto FOX? Two guns, one measuring ball speed at the release point (maximum acceleration) is going to be a lot different than a gun measuring ball speed 30 feet from the plate.
For my kids, due to the low equipment cost, I measure ball speed at the catcher’s glove and extrapolate the maximum ball speed to pad the kids’ egos. However, ball speed at the glove is the most reliable indicator of pitch effectiveness.
Fox has their own gun at each park – they’re not using the stadium gun.
Gameday isn’t using a radar gun at all – they’re using high speed cameras to track the motion of the ball, and mathmatic algorithms to calculate velocity based on distance and time. The gameday way is probably more accurate, but since we don’t have a lot of data to compare it to, and we don’t know where the cameras are aimed, we’re best off being careful with their results right now.
Sounds like your typical apples to oranges comparison too.
If the Gameday data is more accurate, but you’ve been using the less accurate data for years now, you’ll probably want to continue to use the same data source for comparison purposes.
Gameday isn’t using a radar gun at all – they’re using high speed cameras to track the motion of the ball, and mathmatic algorithms to calculate velocity based on distance and time.
I don’t know how well that works, but it sure sounds impressive.
First inning, me to my dad in our seats in section 121: “Hmm, Weaver hasn’t even hit 90 on the gun yet, that’s probably a bad sign”.
Next pitch: 90 MPH fastball, result is a double in the RF gap.
My dad: “Guess he heard you.”
It was a loooong few innings last night.
Dave, in the topic intro: “To read the postgame comments of the Mariners after another miserable outing from Jeff Weaver last night, the guy is the second coming of Derek Lowe.”
and reading (with some amusement
) Mariner Fan in CO Exile’s comment, “…I wouldn’t mind playing poker with the way [Weaver] reacts to events, though.”
Actually, Derek Lowe ain’t all that bad nowadays, Dave…but when he WAS going bad in the years he pitched for the Red Sox, I remember Red Sox fans used to joke about seeing “the Derek Lowe Face”, a kinda squinched up expression that said to everyone in the ballpark that he wasn’t a happy camper.
I saw that bite-into-a-sour-lemon expression on Weaver’s face the whole time he was out there on the mound last night.
The Phillies are moving Brett Myers to the pen to make room for John Lieber in the rotation…Why not buy low on Myers if the Phillies would be willing to trade him?
To replace Weaver. On-topic…
For the record, Weaver has always identified himself as a two-seamer/sinker pitcher. The quote in his entry for The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers (I don’t have it in front of me), is a quote from a NYT article right after he gave up a HR in the 2003 WS. To paraphase: “You have to throw your best pitch in a tough situation. My best pitch is my sinker. He just hit it out of the park.”
The Phillies are moving Brett Myers to the pen to make room for John Lieber in the rotation…Why not buy low on Myers if the Phillies would be willing to trade him?
Seriously? Wow. I’d rather have Myers in the rotation than Lieber.
And, yes, I’d rather have Myers than 4/5ths of the M’s rotation, too. Even if he is a ‘jerk’…
Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. It’s over on Rotoworld.com which tends to be a fairly good source of information. Not 100%, but up there.
That’s on par with the Snelling trade in terms of stupidity. Lieber is better than Eaton. Eaton should go to the pen. A rotation of Hamels, Myers, Garcia, Moyer and Lieber would’ve been pretty sweet.