M’s lock up Lopez
The M’s signed Jose Lopez to a four year deal through the 2011 season today, buying out all his arbitration years (but not his first year of free agency) and giving them some cost certainty with one of their better young talents.
If you’ve been to either of the USSM feeds where Bavasi talked, you know he’s a huge fan of locking up large groups of young players to long term deals. He did this same thing when he was with the Angels, and they estimated that they saved about $35 to $40 million. It’s a sound strategy, and one that I’m glad to see the Mariners continue.
It’s also a significant investment in Lopez, and a good sign that the organization was still willing to commit to him despite a lackluster second half and a poor start to 2007. Lopez still has the talent to be a well above average second baseman, and getting him signed now is a low risk, high upside move. If he breaks out and turns into an all-star, the club has saved a fortune, and the cost is low enough that even worst case scenarios aren’t financially debilitating. There is some downside, as Lopez has been dogged by a reputation of being a less than hard worker through the years and his conditioning has been up and down, and giving guaranteed money to a guy with work ethic issues can backfire in your face. But Lopez has matured quite a bit in the past couple of years, and it shouldn’t be that big of a concern.
The M’s have now signed Putz, Betancourt, and Lopez to multiyear deals. Felix has been making public noise about getting one since 2005, so you know he’s angling to be next in line. It will be interesting to see how the M’s handle Felix’s situation, but I would think its totally plausible that they get something done with him before the season ends.
I hope there’s a clause in there that states he’s not contractually obligated to follow Mike Hargrove’s Old Tyme Batting Advice.
So, knowing your fiscal conservative ways in regards to roster management, and simultaneously your feelings about Felix’s fairly-historical awesomeness, I’m curious, Dave, what contract you’d give Felix right now.
I’m not rational when it comes to Felix. I’d probably give him something like 14 years and $1.4 billion. Ask me again after he’s given up a run this year.
I would imagine that Felix could set some records in arbitration.
Yeah, I think 1.4 billion is about right. I can’t imagine him going for anything under 100mil per season.
If he started every day, that might not be an unreasonable contract. =)
I think this is a really good move. I’m glad to see them investing in their young talent. I can only hope that they can get something done with Felix to secure him for a good amount of time.
BTW, I wanted to look at the contract post you guys put together and it looks like the formatting got ruined or something:
http://ussmariner.com/index.php?p=2054
Would I be correct in guessing that no pitcher as good as we think Felix is has ever gone to arbitration?
I mean his main references seem to be Doc Gooden in 1984 and, going back beyond that, maybe Alexander the Great in 333BC?
I wonder if they tried to get an option on his first free agent year.
3, If the whole world could suddenly catch on to his awesomeness and become intensely interested, and the Mariners found a way to broadcast his every start to the entire world, that contract in terms of annual salary wouldn’t be too far off. I’d go five years, 500 million. If he were a free agent, that number would obviously be much higher.
$100MM per season is about right, if he’s Bugs Bunny. Start every day, play every position………
;o)
This is great news Dave. Do you know the terms?
I think this is great. Lopez and Betancourt in the field for years – Lopez now sure to outlast Hargrove and his tinkering. I hope they go to Felix by the end of the year. If things continue to look good for him the upside is off the charts and the downside is tolerable in my view.
Looking around the diamond, after Felix, who else is there to lock up like this . . that’s it!? Man, the rest of the team starts to look old after those guys.
I have this theory that Weaver’s awful pitching screws up hitters.
So, should we keep sending Weaver out there (30 guaranteed losses) if it means Felix goes 27-1 with 12 complete games and a 0.80 ERA?
10 years 200 million.
#12 – don’t forget Doyle!
Oh wait…
three words: i chi ro
Lets be reasonable, 100 million is the payroll of a should-be-contending team. Considering that Bunny’s team would beat this team 100 times out of 100, you have to consider the necessary payroll of such a team. The Yankees spend 200 million but can only win 60-65% of the time. Theoretically, one would have to eliminate all contracts and sign the best player at each position. 100 million doesn’t even come close. I do think if we could hype the popularity of Felix’s starts to World Cup Soccer levels, he could generate at well over $100 million in revenue.
Is there a chance that Jose is permanently damaged by being forced to try and hit the ball the other way?
What are the terms of this deal? any ida?
#16 – yeah, I thought about that, but then I realized we actually have to contend for the whole thing to stand a chance there . . then I cried . . .I drank a little . .and posted my comment without mentioning him.
BAD MOVE ON SIGNING LOPEZ FOR LONG TERM.
#20, besides the compelling argument of typing in all caps, care to tell us why?
Well, it’s not like the Indians locking up Sabathia, Hafner, Sizemore, Martinez and Peralta long-term (or long-term when they did it) … but it’s something.
A question about Lopez’s hitting: I grew listening to the Mariners announcers pound the gospel of “going the other way” as if it were the absolute key to being a good hitter, what differentiated the good hitters from the bad hitters. Most of this probably came from watching Edgar. I understand that Lopez’s greatest strength is his natural power to left field, but is there any benefit to an opposite field mentality for him, ever, even in the future, will he just never have any power to any other field?
Any details on the money for Lopez? And with regards to Felix’s contract, do you go ahead and give him super-star money (something along the lines of what Johan Santana would get in free agency), or do you get some discount for signing him through his cheap years? Would something around 5 years, $40 Mil with an option year be enough? Too little? Too much?
Seems to be viral lately … in the wake of the P-I locking up the Times for the next nine years.
#21… Allow me to field this one:
LOPIZ IS A BAD SINEING BECUZ HE’S NOT CLUTCH LIKE DEREK JETER
And believe me, I’m all for giving Felix the 14 year, brazillion dollar contract, (I’m in the ‘cannot think rationally about Felix’ camp) but at the same time, doesn’t the team need to consider the folly in giving an enormous contract to a 21-year old pitcher with iffy mechanics?
Well, I tried finding some info on Alex Rodriguez’ last contract with the M’s, because that might be a similar situation with Felix’s. I’d like to think that Lincoln and Armstrong would’ve learned something with that, especially. Sure, A-Rod has Boras, and really didn’t want to stay in Seattle. And pitchers are riskier, injury-wise. But, since Felix is showing some pretty good signs of being the dominant TOR staff ace, and one of the, if not THE, best pitchers in the league, I’d say there’s good reason to try and lock him up as long as possible.
Yay, now we can have the Double Play Twins commercials for years to come!
If Felix signs it would most likely be a 4 year deal that buys out his arbitration years. It is essentially a 3 year deal though since the team can pay him whatever they so desire in the first year (assuming he doesn’t sign a long-term deal). It is very doubtful that he would give up any of his free agent years. Probably the closest comp you’ll find is Zambrano who made 3.75 mil in his first arby year, 6.5 in his second, and 12.5 in his 3rd. As much as we obviously think Felix is better than Zambrano, if you check out his numbers they’re pretty ridiculous especially when u consider that arbitration panels love the standard ERA, Wins, K’s, and IP. Another good comp is Dontrelle (who’s got 6.45 mil in his 2nd year of arby).
Couldn’t find A-Rod’s 1995 salary, but his salaries for ‘96-’00 were (Mil): .442, 1.012, 2.112, 3.112, 4.362. Did he sign a major league contract straight out of the draft?
how is this going to sit with ichiro? will it sway him to the side of resigning because they are trying to make the team better by locking up their better players or will this piss him off that they’ve resigned putz, yuni, and now lopez and not him? or will it have no affect at all?
I wouldn’t bother with A-Rod’s numbers because one they were 10 years ago and a lot has changed in the salary market and secondly, he’s a position player.
Johan Santana signed a 4 yr. 40 mil deal that covered his arbitration years and his first free agent year. That free agent year was worth a lot though and Johan was coming off a Cy Young campaign when he signed the deal.
la la la laaaaa la ladilahlahhhh ……….
When did Santana get his extension?
We’ve actually seen a rash of good, young, pre-arb guys signing deals that buy out their arbitration years and occassionally gives team an option on their first free agent year.
Jeremy Bonderman got a 4 year, $38 million deal last winter that actually bought out the first two years of his free agency. Roy Halladay and Johan Santana both signed deals that bought out free agency years. It’s not unheard of.
The rumor last year was that Felix’s agent was trying to get a 7 or 8 year contract done, but the M’s weren’t interested in doing anything long term (and rightfully so). Now? I don’t think they’d want to go 7 or 8 years, still, but I could see a 5 + team option (which could potentially take away two free agent years) without too much of a problem.
How much would it cost? I’m guessing $60 million-ish, but if he keeps throwing zeroes up there, that could be low.
I recognize that Santana is probably the best comparable to Felix talent-wise, but Santana was also older than Felix when he received his extension, and also had won one Cy Young award at the time, and had another that he should have won.
Santana signed the contract after the 04′ season (the winter going into the 05′ season). Now that I think of it, that contract might have bought out two of his free agent years because I think he has 6 years of service time now. I’ll have to double check. Santana is a tough comparison though because he took a lot different path to where he is at now then Felix will.
Feb 2005 — 4/$40M ($5 million in 2005, $9 million in 2006, $12 million in 2007 and then $13.25 million in 2008)
Dave, you’re going to be quite happy then from what I’ve heard and know…
And I’ll say that a 7 or 8 year deal has 0% chance of happening unless the Mariners just offer something beyond ridiculous and I would personally be shocked to see anything beyond 5.
Aww you must be lost since Mariners Revolution went the way of C-Rex….
By 2009, the M’s salary commitments drop to a little over $40 million (Beltre, Washburn, Batista, Putz, Betancourt, and Lopez), so the M’s should have plenty of money to pay Felix through his arbitration years.
I’d be happy with 5 years at Gil Meche money. It would be ironic.
Barring any 10 year 90 million dollar Sexson extensions
41:
What does that even mean?
Are you kidding? The Rev wanted to marry Lopez and have his babies.
#43
The 2009 core should be interesting: Beltre, Betancourt, Lopez, Felix, Washburn, Batista, Putz, plus Jones and Clement hopefully starting by then. I’m hoping they don’t make any more free agent starting pitcher signings; it seems possible that Feierabend will be in the rotation by then, and HoRam may still be around. I wonder who will be at those open corner spots (1B/LF/RF) a couple years down the line. There’s no way Ibanez is still in LF in 2009. Is there?
Johjima’s .400 average leads Major League Baseball!
The last thing they need to now is low-ball Felix. They need to pay him for every dime he’s worth. If that means something around $10M per season, do it. Even $15M per could end up being a bargain. I’d really like to see the M’s pull out all the stops to get him locked up long term, and I actually have faith they will.
Ted Williams said it best: “history is made middle in”. Strike one and strike two, a hitter should be looking for a pitch that he can turn on, because your bat velocity is higher the more you rotate.
Outside pitches are properly struck deep in the strike zone, near the back of the plate. Strong hitters letting the outside pitch “get deep” can drive it out of the park to the opposite field, but there is a power reduction because of the bat speed reduction. Conversely, if you try to pull an outside pitch, you tend to roll over your wrists and pound the ball into the ground. Heavy GB hitters are of two types: those with horrible timing, and those that deliberately swing “down”.
On the other hand, Ted Williams endorsed the “inside out” swing in 2-strike counts, with the idea that any pitch can be put in play up the middle or to the opposite field with the inside out stroke. Check out epsteinhitting.com if you want more details on the inside out stroke.
Coaching a player to hit to opposite field is rightly considered lunacy. If you are hitting “inside out” all the time, you have no bat speed. “Inside out” swings don’t have the wrist snap that characterizes a powerful swing.
Inside pitches need to be hit about a foot in front of the plate, and driven to the CF/Corner fielder gap. pitches in the middle should be struck right on the front edge of the plate and driven either up the middle or with a slight pull to the gap. Further, this idea isn’t debatable, and if it isn’t preached to ALL hitters, then the coach should be fired. Period.
#8.:
I think it was Peter Gammons who called Gooden “baseball’s Mozart” so naw, I think we only have to go back to the 18th century.
Either that or we have to go to the 14th century BCE and the original Boy King: Tut.
So, Dave, what’s your gut feeling about re-signing Ichiro? Do the M’s plan to go with Jones and sell high on Ichiro?
idea isn’t debatable, and if it isn’t preached to ALL hitters, then the coach should be fired. Period.
Ichiro?
Ichiro hits the ball where it’s pitched, even if it is in the dirt.
I don’t think anyone tries to coach Ichiro.
41. I’m just saying if he was to sign a 4 year deal and you used Zambrano as a point of reference — basically you’d be at:
year 1: 1 mil
year 2: 4 mil (1st arby year)
year 3: 7 mil
year 4: 13 mil
You’d be at a 4 yr. 25 mil contract. If you factor in the small discount that the M’s would get for guaranteeing him the money with the injury risk and all you could probably knock a few off. I’ll give him the benefit of doubt though and factor in that Felix could be in for a monumental season though and that the Mariners realize that. The other factor though is Felix is coming off a shaky statistical year which plays in the M’s favor should they try to sign him to a long term deal this year.
As phenomenal as Williams was, isn’t he also considered the last of the “dead-red pull hitters” to be so successful?
Williams was not a “dead pull” hitter. He wanted to pull, just as we want Lopez to pull. That was the point of my post – he preferred to hit a ball with maximum bat speed.
Consider also that Williams belonged to a different era, when the slider was emerging as a force in the pitcher’s arsenal. Williams acknowledged that the slider was the most difficult pitch to hit because it messed with his timing and pitch recognition. Imagine Williams having to hit a Clemens split-finger or a Felix two-seamer?? Get out in front of a pitch just a little and you are tearing up the infield grass (splitters). Miss-time the cutter because you are swinging for the middle of the plate but it bears to the inside corner, and you are hitting off the handle (getting “jammed”).
58 – he’s pretty much the last of the “hitters” to be so successful
Also look at the deals that Matt Cain and Harden signed after their first full seasons. 4 year deals that bought out 2 arbitration years. 4 years – 9-10 mil. Like I said, Felix has a much higher ceiling, but both of them had better first full years statistically than Felix. In arbitration, you get paid for what you’ve done moreso than what you might do. If Felix waits until after the season or atleast until after a half of season of doing what he’s doing to sign a long-term deal then who knows what he might sign for. He’s gonna get more than Cain and Harden but he’s not going to get paid as if he were a free agent either.
Personally, I think it will be a boon for Jose’s future once Hargrove leaves town. Hargrove turned Jose into a worm-killing, move the runner over-hitter who has lost some aggressiveness at the plate.
Jose has the potential to be a plus bat at 2B, but that’s contingent on getter Grover out of here.
Why does Grover need to be out of here for Jose to be a plus bat? I don’t have a problem with Hargrove leaving, I’m just saying the two don’t necessarily have to be connected. Why can’t Jose change back to his pull-hitting ways a bit while Hargrove is still here? He’s not hitting 2nd anymore where Grover seemed to ask him to put down the sac bunt all the time…
62:
Are you saying Lopez lacks grit?
For one, I think Hargrove and the coaches messed him up too much by urging him to be a “move him over” hitter. Two, I really don’t see much to indicate they are working to get Jose back to driving the ball to the alleys. As long as Grover is here, he isn’t going to hurry to change Jose back.
So, I think it would be great to get articles on signing Felix and Ichiro by the USSM quartet.
I’d probably want the M’s to work out a deal that covers arbitration years and gives them a team option for the first year of free agency.
I’d like to think the M’s would offer a slightly higher than normal offer, so that if Felix’s ace ways continue, he is predisposed to return to the team. But, reality tells me that things don’t work that way, in part because 1) the potential injury factor with young pitchers and 2) reliance on Felix seeing the ‘goodwill’ gesture, which relies on him recognizing that the M’s could probably get him for much less than he is worth over the next several years. They’d probably be better off to sign Felix for the lowest amount possible, and then squirrel extra money away (the amount they ‘would’ have paid) to offer as a nice big signing bonus if he returns in free-agency (and is still the ace pitcher). Of course, I don’t think the M’s will work this way either. I can only hope that they offer a reasonable salary, not for too long.
Given the potential ace status, I’d also go slightly higher and try to get one or two team option years.
Which is really, really stupid.
From even a fan’s perspective, going the other way is a tool to ADD to your repertoire, not replace it. The only reason to preach going the other way is if you’re not a good enough hitter to pull the ball and be productive.
Um, hello? For half a season, Lopez showed he COULD pull the ball and be productive. And he’d only get better with age.
The current strategy is a dull, unimaginative one where players are coached to be what they should be doing, and totally ignores what a player DOES.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…if Hargrove was managing Ichiro when he first came over, he would totally tried to change Ichiro’s style….