Credit where credit is due
Vidro, so far: .333/.372/.420
One of the better hitters on the M’s so far, for what that’s worth. I’ve mentioned this in comments a couple of times, but the taking-a-good-cut Vidro who puts th ball in the air is far, far more effective than the ground-ball Vidro. You can’t beat those out any more, Turbo. Take a cut at it.
Vidro: .333/.372/.420
AL DH: .265/.349/.465
Trading 20 points of on-base for forty points of slugging is, value-wise, pretty much a wash.
All of which makes Vidro so far a league-average DH who’s being paid a lot for a while. Now, that shouldn’t affect your view of him in the team lineup-on-the-field context, but as part of the overall roster and team construction, well, go right ahead.
AL DH Moolah Meter
—
Giambi: $21m
Thome $14m
Sheffield $13m
Ortiz: $12.5m
Sweeney $11m
Frank Thomas $9m
Piazza $8.5m
Vidro $7.5m (total cost)
Hillenbrand $6.5m
Vidro $6m (cost to M’s in 07 including Nationals payout)
Hafner $3.65m
Catalanotto $3.5m (+Sosa etc)
Millar/Perez $2.75m
Kubel/etc $0
Dukes/Gomes $0
If Vidro continues to hit this well (which, obviously, we’ve predicted won’t happen, but we’re wrong often enough) and the parts the M’s gave up turn out to be not worth much (again), Vidro’s a decent enough patch for a position the M’s were unable to solve for years. We could argue that it’s a misallocation of resources, Broussard would be a better choice, and on and on, but there it is — paying a league-average DH league average DH money isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Somewhat related Cult of Doyle update: 0-2 with a walk today. He’d be tied with Sexson for the team lead in walks despite having much less playing time. We’ve noted before that Snelling’s a huge streak hitter, and when he’s got his swing together he’s a terror and when he’s hacking it can be ugly, but I really feel like the Nationals are killing him with this spot usage and their incomprehensible outfield rotation: if I’ve ever seen anyone who would benefit from getting a steady supply of plate appearances to stay in a groove when they’re hot, it’s Doyle. But he’s not getting it.
Vidro has never had more than 5 steals in his career. So I doubt he was ever fast. Many slow people have hit 320 such as an older Tony Gwynn. I am not saying he will hit 320 but there it is entirely possible that he does and probably that he hits close to 300. Remember when Bloomquist was over 300 last year, that was unsustainable, remember when Ozzie Guillen was leading the league in BA at the all star break, that was unsustainable. There have been literally at least 1000 hitters who have had more unsustainable situations than this one of Vidro’s….The man is only hitting 17 pts or 1.7% over his career average…This is not only normal but down right expected. When guys hit 100 points over there career average it is unsustainable. This is not one of those situations.
You just compared Jose Vidro to Tony Gwynn, and I’m being unreasonable?
Jose Vidro will finish the year with a batting average below .280 – guaranteed.
I would gladly do a side bet paid directly or to a charity on an above 280 ba….Vidro hits 290+ in his sleep
Now that’s just a foolish comment to make.
Who’s career line is this? .328 .415 .443
Hall of fame player Wade Boggs. Who was ridiculously slow, hit for no power (and the only power he displayed was due to slapping balls off the Monster) and yet managed hit over .320 eleven out of 17 years in the big leagues.
Of course it can be done, it’s just unlikely that Vidro will do it and he doesn’t make up for the lack of power in other ways like an obscenely high OBP. (Although .372 on this team of hacks is nothing to be upset about)
Hall of fame player Wade Boggs. Who was ridiculously slow, hit for no power (and the only power he displayed was due to slapping balls off the Monster) and yet managed hit over .320 eleven out of 17 years in the big leagues.
Wade Boggs had 757 career extra base hits – 25% of his career hit total.
Jose Vidro has 3 extra base hits out of 27 so far this year – 11% of his total.
Jose Vidro’s .318 batting average is built entirely on a couple of flukey infield singles and a blooper falling in.
Or, to put it another way:
Vidro’s career isolated power: .158
Vidro’s isolated power, 2006: .106
Vidro’s isolated power, 2007: .082
Willie Bloomquist’s career isolated power: .072
So, if Willie bloomquist hit .318/.356/.400 for a month, would anyone think HE was a #3 hitter we should use at DH?
Let’s not forget also that this is (for the most part) the first time through the AL for Vidro. Pitchers will find his holes and will begin to pound him in his weak spots without any fear of giving up a HR or anything beyond a single. We’re witnessing the high-light of the year with Turbo with a slow grind down to his expected.
On a tangential note, league stats through April: .255/.328/.403. That’s a REALLY depressed run environment compared to anything since about 1994, and basically takes us back to the mid-80’s. I don’t think it will stand, but if it did, we’d have to adjust some of our expectations.
Right. Everyone will heat up as the league thaws out from the snowstorms.
I hope Jose Vidro continues to hit well. I’m a lot happier with him than I am with Jose Guillen so far, but between those two Joses, they’ve made it almost impossible for Broussard or Ellison to get any playing time at all, which does suck more for Broussard due to the salary, as #45 pointed out. On the other hand, Jamie Burke *is* awesome.
And, also sorry I missed the book events the last two weeks (been out of town and/or busy). Hope the Third Place one gets rescheduled sometime too.
All negative Vidro posts (ie “he will never keep this up) seem to rely on Vidro’s recent seasons… in which he was hopelessly injured.
As slow as he is; he is healthy… and playing DH.
I have every expectation that we will continue to see this level of production and hope that more power is in the offing… especially when Ichiro and Beltre start to come around and he sees better pitches.
I posted a long time back that any speculation on Vidro’s projections needed to factor in a silver slugger quality infielder taking on a DH role… not just taking his last two seasons and running them through the typical projection systems.
It is not like the M’s haven’t seen a stud infielder hobbled by injury take on the DH role and have amazing success… even when that person (who shall remain nameless in an attempt to prevent the whammy) is as slow as a square wheel.
Here is to hoping for some more doubles out of the 3 hole.
-Jamesllegade
I hope Jose Vidro continues to hit well. I’m a lot happier with him than I am with Jose Guillen so far,
Let’s say we give Jose Guillen a few of Jose Vidro’s flukey singles- call it 3.
We get:
Guillen: .284/.333/.418
Vidro: .282/.322/.365
I think Guillen will be fine. Vidro… not so much.
Basically, I see three scenarios for Vidro:
– Scenario 1: Vidro regresses to the mean of his last couple of years, except he has even less power and more GIDP, giving you a .320 OBP, .380 SLG and 20-25 GIDP, even if he ends up hitting .280. This is a terrible player, and would be the worst 3 hitter in all of baseball (last year, our 3’s hit .319/.431).
– Scenario 2: he does a Carl Everett style belly-flop as the book goes out around the league that he can’t hit a good fastball (his 2 HRs were off of meatballs).
– Scenario 3: he gets injured and either grits it out and sucks ala Scenario 2, or the M’s put a real hitter in.
As slow as he is; he is healthy… and playing DH.
He’s ‘healthy’, playing DH, and STILL has no power or speed. His cumulative injury history has taken a toll.
I posted a long time back that any speculation on Vidro’s projections needed to factor in a silver slugger quality infielder taking on a DH role
He hasn’t been that caliber of player for years. Should we bring Edgar back, since he was a good DH in 2003, too?
And comparing Vidro to Edgar is silly, though clearly that’s the Mariner logic at work here. Edgar had ONE major injury/long stint on the DL before age 40. Vidro has multiple stints on the DL. He didn’t have 3 years as a craptastic hitter in a row as Vidro did.
Sheesh…the hopeless romantics are out in force today.
By the by E Coward, if WFB did manage to hit .318/.356/.400, doing so would only intensify the number of KOMO listeners who demand that he get more starts.
*now with 100% less light.
Wrong.
Read more carefully. For example, the authors of this blog are NOT that sloppy. They’ve compared his OPS, home and away, for the last several years, injured and healthy.
IF (a BIG IF) he continues to produce at this level for the next 6 years as our DH, would we eventually we call him “Senor Singles”?
Fellas (and Deanna),
I think there is something that is missing here when predicting how someone will perform. And that is actually watching someone hit instead of crunching the numbers.
I’m sure that the guys who run this site got clued into Snelling not so much because of his numbers, but rather by watching him hit and being really impressed with his swing, stance, and approach.
I think that those of you who predict Vidro will perform horribly this year are tending to overanalyze the numbers (not that there isn’t some validity to that) and not paying attention to his actual AB’s. In addition, Vidro hasn’t been healthy for awhile, and now that he appears healthy and is a DH, can’t we expect him to perform closer to his old self when he was a quality hitter?
If you watch WFB hit, you realize he isn’t a very good hitter, Beltre is similar except he is such a good athlete and is so strong that he can overcome his lack of a solid approach to hitting.
Vidro, on the other hand, looks great at the plate, and has nice discipline. That is a nice recipe for a good hitter.
And yes, he has some bleeders that have found holes and bloopers that fell in. But he also has hit a number of balls that were smoked right at people, now if those find the grass instead of the bloopers, and go for extra base hits, his numbers look much better.
Again, the argument that he only hits singles is misleading,he’s hit a number of balls that will be extra base hits more often than not, that have been caught.
The preseason community projection was .289/.351/.395.
I thought there was more pop in his bat, but it looks like the 16 home runs I estimated is a total pipe dream.
I was at .280/.339/.424.
Oh well, we shall see.
Um, to throw an argument back at you…have you been watching Vidro hit? Because the first few weeks, those were ground balls. There were no line drives. And ground balls don’t mean extra base hits unless hit down the lines…and there weren’t that many of them.
In addition, Vidro hasn’t been healthy for awhile, and now that he appears healthy and is a DH, can’t we expect him to perform closer to his old self when he was a quality hitter?
No, not really.
Jose Vidro has MUCH more in common with Carl Everett than Edgar. Crazy Carl went from a .300/.380/.550 hitter with decent speed (15-20 SBs a year) able to play decently at a key defensive position (CF, as opposed to Vidro at 2B) at his peak from 1998-2000 to a .260/.320/.440 marginal OF who was a defensive liability, by age 31 (a similar age to Vidro now). Losing a fair chunk of your ability to hit in your early 30’s is not very uncommon, especially with extensive injury history.
Remind me, did Carl Everett go back to hitting .300/.380/.550 when he went to DH in Chicago or Seattle?
Orlando Cepeda and Tony Oliva are also similar (though considerably better players than Everett or Vidro): very good hitters who had chronic injuries that robbed them of defensive value and forced them to DH. They also never came back to anything close to their prior value.
I also saw the game Vidro hit his 2 home runs. They were hit off of 87 MPH fastballs with no movement over the plate. If Vidro couldn’t drive those, he shouldn’t be playing, let alone batting third. I would expect WFB to drive mediocre crap like that.
Odd that everyone is taking shots at our +.300 hitter instead of our 14.5 million dollar .145BA “power” hitting first baseman. Vidro is by no means a great DH, but he is one of the few guys in a Mariners uniform that is getting hits. If our 4-6 spots weren’t killing us Vidro could have 5-10 more runs and would seem much more worth it.
I’m none to fond of Sexson, either, and wish we could have dumped him in the offseason.
What’s all this talk about Edgar?
Doesn’t anyone remember how well he took care of his body?
Doesn’t anyone remember how dedicated he was to perfecting his craft?
Forget about those “intangibles,” doesn’t anyone even remember how well he did?
Oh, yeah, he did have a .727 OPS… in his age 41 season. Which, by the way, was by far the worst mark of any full season in his career. The second lowest was .830, and that was way back in 1990, his first full season. Vidro, at age 32, likely will come very near to that .342 OPB and .385 SLG put up in his final season. He might not even equal that, though!
Edgar was also only being paid $3m that year, for just that one year, and wasn’t blocking another, better, $3m+ player sitting on the bench.
Vidro has never had a career path anything like Edgar’s, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. If his age 32-37 years produce 5 1.000+ OPS and 1 “low” .994 OPS, then I’ll change my mind.
bhsmarine:
From the thread on first basemen, it doesn’t seem that people are thrilled with the investment in Sexson, either.
1988 final day of spring training he took a ground ball in the face,
smashing the bridge of his nose. After the season had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. This was unrelated to the broken nose.
1990 missed the final five games of the season, finishing with a .302
average, and in the off-season had arthroscopic surgery to repair ligament damage in his right knee that had messed up his defense all season.
1992 when he won the batting title he had a bone spur in the shoulder that bothered him all year, requiring surgery which sidelined him for the final 19 games of that season.
1993 partial tear of a left hamstring on the final day of spring training (playing on loose dirt up in Vancover) & played in only 42 regular-season games.
1994 spring training, Dennis Martinez hit him on the right wrist – an injury that bothered him for months. About the time he was healthy, he was run into by Marzy, causing cracked & bruised ribs.
1997 pulled oblique, no DL time
2000 sore quads, no DL time
2001 sore quads; strained left hamstring in October, as reflected in his post-season hitting
2002 ruptured left hamstring tendon, underwent an experimental surgery to remove a tendon. He missed 65 games that year, limped through most of the rest.
2003 (age 40 season) slight strain of the left hamstring; in August fouled a pitch off his foot and broke his left big toe.
Good post/information, msb.
Didn’t the Edgar/Marzano collision happen in ’96 though? Unless there were two of them.
Thank you #73
As to #62…
The former M’s DH you mention is a fringe HoFer who came up at 3B… Vidro doesn’t have to be that to be successful (and thus make this trade successful).
If you look at the numbers they are not all that different; especially when you adjust for Kingdome and M’s teams in the early to mid 90’s vs Montreal/Washington teams and stadiums in the early 2000’s… and the fact that Vidro’s injury seasons took place at an younger age (which bodes better for a full recovery):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/vidrojo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/martied01.shtml
I made this point before as well… The M’s old DH didn’t blow up UNTIL his age 32 season (never had more than 18 HR previous). If the M’s had traded a couple well liked prospects for THAT dh after his age 31 season this message board would have RIPPED THEM TO SHREDS (had it existed).
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+————–+—+—-+—-+—-+—+–+—+—-+—+–+—+—+—–+—–+—–+—-+—-+—+—+—+—+—+
1987 24 SEA AL 13 43 6 16 5 2 0 5 0 0 2 5 .372 .413 .581 155 25 0 0 0 1 0
1988 25 SEA AL 14 32 0 9 4 0 0 5 0 0 4 7 .281 .351 .406 109 13 1 1 0 0 0
1989 26 SEA AL 65 171 20 41 5 0 2 20 2 1 17 26 .240 .314 .304 74 52 2 3 1 3 3
1990 27 SEA AL 144 487 71 147 27 2 11 49 1 4 74 62 .302 .397 .433 132 211 1 3 3 5 13
1991 28 SEA AL 150 544 98 167 35 1 14 52 0 3 84 72 .307 .405 .452 138 246 2 4 9 8 19
1992 29 SEA AL 135 528 100 181 46 3 18 73 14 4 54 61 .343 .404 .544 163 287 1 5 2 4 15 SS,MVP-12,AS
1993 30 SEA AL 42 135 20 32 7 0 4 13 0 0 28 19 .237 .366 .378 101 51 1 1 1 0 4
1994 31 SEA AL 89 326 47 93 23 1 13 51 6 2 53 42 .285 .387 .482 121 157 2 3 3 3 2
eponymous coward That looks like two craptastic seasons in a row in 1993 and 1994. Am I right???
If you look at the numbers they are not all that different; especially when you adjust for Kingdome and M’s teams in the early to mid 90’s vs Montreal/Washington teams and stadiums in the early 2000’s
Um, no. Vidro’s two best years for OPS+ were 2000 (129) and 2002 (126). OPS+ is park and league-adjusted, by the way.
Edgar beat those career years of Vidro for OPS+ in EVERY year he played as a healthy, full time player. It’s not even close. Vidro is nowhere near the hitter Edgar was. “Silver slugger infielder” is different at 2B than 3B, because 2B is a more difficult defensive position to play, so you find lesser hitters there- like Jose Vidro.
and the fact that Vidro’s injury seasons took place at an younger age (which bodes better for a full recovery):
Well, no, it doesn’t. Again, lots of players fall flat on their face after age 30. Edgar’s career path is an exception to a rule (very, very few players have their career peak after age 30), and using his career as if it’s typical for players shifted to DH is ignoring lots of other examples- some of which I’ve cited in this thread.
That looks like two craptastic seasons in a row in 1993 and 1994. Am I right???
In 1994, Edgar had an OPS+ of 121, while coming back from an injury, in a season that was cut short by a player’s strike- and it was STILL a better OPS+ than Vidro posted in any year other than 2000 and 2002. Oh, and his 1994 was an IMPROVEMENT on 1993- whereas Vidro slumped from 2004 (116 OPS+) to 2005 (105 OPS+) to 2006 (93 OPS+, meaning he was a worse than average hitter).
The stats you are reading do not tell you what they think they are telling you, if your argument is that they tell us that Jose Vidro is showing a comparable career path to Edgar Martinez. I remain completely unconvinced that he’s likely to sustain a high batting average and on-base percentage with an isolated power that’s not too far from Willie Bloomquist’s, and that isn’t recovering to his career rates, any more that I’m convinced that Wille Bloomquist has turned the table when he has a .330/.390/.420 month.
If the M’s had traded a couple well liked prospects for THAT dh after his age 31 season this message board would have RIPPED THEM TO SHREDS (had it existed).
Whuh? Edgar, in his age 27-29 seasons had .830, .857 and .948 OPS. Then he had two injury shortened seasons, before coming back in “full health” and doing much better.
Vidro’s production was literally falling apart well before his injuries. Age 27-29 seasons before his injuries (even though last year’s basically still gave him a full year for us to see)? .868, .867, and .821. Doesn’t really look like an improvement, especially when you consider it was as high as .919 two years before that. He’s not even in acceptable physical shape, and I’m not talking about the results of injuries. It’s no surprise he’s lost most of his ability to hit.
Vidro has already peaked, and he’s falling. He’s been falling since 2000. Unlike Edgar, who was obviously getting better before two years were cut short by injuries. When he came back, he showed that. Has Vidro shown patience, power, line drives or anything good? No. They’re all below his career averages, not above them.
Plus, they aren’t/weren’t even the same type of hitter.
By the way, Vidro definitely benefitted from playing in Montreal. If anything, that just says that his “prime” was overrated to begin with, and he was never even as good as considered (but still way better than now). Edgar, even in “old age,” still did well in Safeco, even with some slow down beginning at age 39/40. Let’s hope we don’t have to watch Vidro try to put up .888 and .895 OPS in his 39/40 years. It would get pretty ugly.
This is not a message board.
#80 OK… point taken.
In summation; I never said he was going to be as good as the old M’s DH… but if Vidro can get back to consistent OPS+’s of 126-129 I think we will all be happy while we wait to grow our own DH (LaHair?) for cheap money.
Again… Vidro was INJURED in 2004-2006… He is healthy at DH now. We need to see some more Xtra base hits but of all the possible starts to the year this is one of the more encouraging.