What Doyle Stands For
So, yea, Billy Beane traded for Chris Snelling last night. Now, this shouldn’t be any huge surprise – Beane is constantly looking for opportunities to make his team better both now and in the future, and when he has a chance to acquire a guy he feels is undervalued, he jumps on it.
Last week, he traded two players to be named later for Chris Denorfia, despite the fact that Denorfia is out for the season. Why? Because Beane believes that Denorfia can help them next year as a fourth outfielder making next to nothing, and he saw a chance to improve the 2008 Oakland A’s.
Then, the next day, he essentially bought Ryan Langerhans from the Atlanta Braves. Langerhans was a good defensive outfielder who has a history of being a decent enough hitter, but was in a terrible slump, and again, Beane saw an opportunity to help the A’s by picking up a guy with useful skills for nothing of value.
Yesterday, he flipped Langerhans to the Nationals for Doyle, who is a classic Billy Beane player. So, essentially, in the span of a couple of days, Beane picked up Snelling for some cash. With the injuries the A’s have suffered, he’ll get some at-bats at DH while Piazza is out and join the outfield rotation down in Oakland. The fact that Beane likes Doyle should be obvious – he can hit, he draws walks, he plays hard, and he was free. Beane looked at the things he can do to help a team and saw a potentially valuable player that cost him nothing.
Injuries have indeed taken a toll of Chris Snelling, and he’s unlikely to have the all-star career we all hoped he would have as he was coming up through the system. We know this. At this point, he’s probably a nifty role player, a guy who can help a team but shouldn’t be counted on as the everyday answer for a contending team. But our Doyle love was never just only about Snelling as a player and a person, but about what he stood for, and still does.
The dual Snelling trades over the last six months are a perfect contrast of two organizations. The Mariners fail to understand market dynamics or get beyond batting average and strikeouts when evaluating a player and make a disgusting deal that limits the franchise’s ability to contend both now and in the future. The A’s exploit the market, identify a player who is more useful than his current organization believes, and pick up a potentially useful player for nothing.
Doyle isn’t going to make the difference between the A’s and Mariners winning the AL West this year, next year, or any year. It’s what Doyle stands for. The A’s are an organization of smart, baseball savvy people who are constantly looking for any small advantage they can get over their competition in an effort to win every single year. The Mariners are an organization that throws money at bad players because of their incompetency and get taken to the cleaners by people who are better at their jobs than they are.
Doyle represents the different states of the Mariners and the A’s. I only hope that someday soon, the M’s may employ people who can turn those dynamics upside down.
Dave-
Thanks for that post. I’ve never understood the Doyle fixation that’s always apparent here. Now I feel like I finally get it.
If it does not make a difference, it does not make a difference. Get over it.
If it does not make a difference, it does not make a difference. Get over it.
Or, you could actually understand the whole point of the post.
We’re going to have next to no tolerence for people who want to be idiots about this. If you want to write an informed opinion explaining why you’re not a Doyle fan, or whatever, go ahead, but if you’re thinking about posting troll-like anti-Doyle/USSM diatribes, don’t bother. It will get deleted, and you’ll end up in the moderation queue.
While this isn’t the steal of the century for Beane, it seems like this is another case of the A’s seeing something they want, and trading bits and pieces for it.
What I don’t understand is why Washington would do this trade. They have a logjam of mediocrity in the OF, so i can understand why they would trade Doyle to open things up, but they traded him for another young 5th outfielder? I guess Washington is just as guilty of misevalauating talent as the M’s…Except they traded Doyle for young potential instead old overpriced history.
If it does not make a difference, it does not make a difference. Get over it.
Next time, read and comprehend the whole thing before you shoot your mouth off. The point is not Doyle as player. The point is in making the organization think about and acquire players of Doyle’s type, as opposed to thinking about and acquiring players of Vidro’s type.
I actually like Langerhans as a player – he’s excellent in the corners defensively and good enough to handle center. He’s better than Nook Logan, for sure.
I don’t hate this deal for Washington – there’s no DH in the NL, and they needed a better center fielder than they have now.
It’s actually far worse than you portray it.
Mariners/Bavasi traded Snelling and Fruto for Vidro back in December. The team had a need that was relatively easy to fill (DH), and months to fill it. They did so by trading for an old, injury-prone, mediocre, expensive second baseman… by adding a 2009 vesting option so he would accept the trade!
Meanwhile, the A’s/Beane traded for Snelling at a time when the team was in disarray because of injuries and desperately needed a short-term solution. Although Swisher, Bradley, Kotsay, Kielty, and Buck are all injured, and the A’s are forced to regularly play a Double-A outfielder, Beane still managed to pull of a trade where he turned two PTBNLs into Langerhans and then into Snelling.
One correction: Beane did have to give up Marcus McBeth, who should be a decent relief pitcher, but that is a position where the A’s have a lot of depth at all levels.
I told my wife once that I had so much respect for the A’s that I would root for them if they had moved to Portland. Moves like these make me want to root for them anyway when M’s fall out of contention.
The abstraction of Doyle could very well mean the difference, and has meant the difference, between the As and Ms in the standings.
Great post, Dave. This pretty well sums up exactly how I feel about the whole thing. I wish I didn’t hate the A’s so much, so I could feel good about rooting for Doyle all the time. At least we’ll get a chance to see him play more often.
Oh, and Dave…third paragraph from the bottom of the post…”duel” should be “dual”
You can delete this if you want.
I agree with #2: If his playing value has diminished to the point where his appearance on a team does not make a difference between winning a division, then why would either trade possibly matter? The whole point of the post, it seems to me, is discussing how inept the Mariners brass is in comparison to the A’s, using these deals as the basis of the argument. But, as you say, this player will not help determine the AL West winner for either side. So is it really a meaningful trade at all? By that same logic, Snelling was not going to help the Mariners win the AL West in any year, so why should the Mariners keep him? They traded him at a time when his potential value was probably at his highest in their eyes. It had been a little while since he had gotten hurt, and so they wanted to move him before he was hurt again. It doesn’t really make sense to label this as a “Classic Billy Beane deal,” because he goes after players that matter. When Snelling goes limp running out a double in July with the A’s in 4th, will Beane still be the Baseball Jesus? It’s not about whether someone is a Snelling fan or not. It’s about not wanting to get worked up over a player that is not really going to matter to anyone in baseball in the long run. Sure, Vidro’s best days are behind him. But he is helping the team win right now, and it’s not his fault that they’re batting him in the wrong spot in the order.
Hey, guys… The team is winning. Let’s enjoy it for a little while, ok? We’ll have August through March ’08 to write about how much we hate these guys.
My mistake, McBeth was one of the two PTBNLs in the Denorfia trade, the A’s got Langerhans (and therefore Snelling) for one player to be named later OR cash.
Well said.
I became a Doyle fan late, mostly because I wasn’t paying close attention to our farm system before the couple of years. I wish Chris well, but I agree with your point that this provides a nice snap-shot of the different organizational thinking/ability, and is not just about a good role player that got away.
I think you even understate Beane’s move here, by just indicating he went out and got a useful player for nothing from an organization that doesn’t value him properly. He actually thought outside the box a little, picked up Langerhans – perhaps with the intent to flip him for somebody more useful all along?- and then got it done. He wasn’t glued to the initial move he made, because he realized all of the options Langerhans gave him. We would have waited to see how Langerhans did here before thinking of moving him along, probably misusing him along the way.
Beane executed a plan that had more than one prong (or, at least, he added a prong when he realized it was available to him), and found a way to get what I think he’s wanted for some time. We probably wouldn’t have traded Doyle to the A’s in the off-season, but here were are.
It’s not just the player evaluation, but the ability to put a series of deals together to get to a more valuable fit. Now this is for a more minor role player to fill a current need, and it’s not trying to get the deal done with a major free agent, but, Beane doesn’t chase that ring all that often either, does he? The onion-like layers of incompetence cannot be over-emphasized, in my view. Well maybe there’s a point, but we haven’t reached it yet.
Snelling was not going to help the Mariners win the AL West in any year, so why should the Mariners keep him?
Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Carlos Triunfel, Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, Matt Tuiasosopo…..all won’t help the team win the AL West this year. Why keep them?
Not to mention Snelling has a good chance of outperforming Vidro over the next five months, and is much cheaper, and doesn’t cost us a fortune next year either, with an option for 2009. Hasn’t this all been said before?
The disconnect between ‘logic’ and what certain posters think logic is is nothing short of astounding.
Anyone have any kind of idea on how much it cost to buy Langerhans? Does this info become public? How can a serviceable major leaguer be purchased and not receive anything baseball related in return?
I’m trying to figure what the A’s have invested in Snelling.
12: I think the point is that while we are fighting tooth and nail to get to 85-90 wins, we have no forseeable plan for the years ahead. Presumably, the team as it currently stands will peak out this year at those win totals and we’ll just have the same problems all over again in ’08. Yeah, Vidro is slapping enough single to keep some rallys going. But is he realistically more than a one-year solution (regardless of his contract)? We could have DH’d Doyle to keep him healthier and plugged him in, and counted that as a decent solution for this year and next. You’ll have a hard time arguing otherwise around here, because we all know the potential he brings to the plate.
15: Well said.
I fearlessly predicted it right here many months ago. Doyle to the A’s. Wow. I can’t really savor my undeniable brilliance, because now Doyle will really haunt the M’s.
#15:
the trade must have required a fair amount of planning.
-the a’s have been after snelling for some time. either the price was too high or the mariners were unwilling to trade snelling within the division. when the a’s asked the nats about snelling in early april, they asked for more than the a’s were willing to give up.
-the nationals have been after langerhans for some time, but the braves were unwilling to trade him within the division. the first call the a’s got after acquiring langerhans was from the nationals.
so, snelling goes from the m’s to the a’s, langerhans goes from the braves to the nats. it would be a typical billy beane trade if he had somehow picked up a random prospect from the mets in the process.
I actually like Langerhans as a player – he’s excellent in the corners defensively and good enough to handle center. He’s better than Nook Logan, for sure.
I don’t hate this deal for Washington – there’s no DH in the NL, and they needed a better center fielder than they have now.
It seemed pretty clear that Snelling was never a key part of the Nats’ plans — Bowden’s on talk-radio an awful lot in D.C., and even when he was acquired, the notion was just that he would compete for playing time in the outfield. Acta loves Chruch, Bowden loves Kearns and Logan, and the whole organization loves Casto for reasons I don’t really get. But Vidro wasn’t a part of the team’s future, and Bowden has always been the type to stockpile guys and trade obsessively, so he (I assume) figured he’d take the talented OF and young reliever with the good arm for a guy the team didn’t have plans for, and figure out what to do with Snelling later.
Bowden stated today that the impetus for getting Langerhans is to give the team a better defensive outfielder for late-game situations. That seems to me to be an odd motive for making a trade when your team is playing .333 baseball and going nowhere, but in practice I’m sure he’ll be playing a lot once the team gets sick of Logan hitting .190 in center.
I think this is too coarse an analysis. By himself, he may not help a team win a division, but the proper question to ask is–does he help make the team better? Because one player may not win a division, but four or five incremental improvements like him may win a division.
I’m not so sure it won’t make a difference this year – the division is likely to be pretty close. If Snelling helps the A’s win a couple of games with his bat, where before they would have had a gaping hole in their lineup, that could be the edge they need to take the division. In a close race every game counts and the A’s just got incrementally better.
By the way…how’s Fruto doing now?
so, snelling goes from the m’s to the a’s, langerhans goes from the braves to the nats.
I think that aspect of the whole deal is kind of interesting. The A’s and the Nationals effectively used each other as middlemen to get some young talent from a team within their own division.
#22 – that all may be possible, and only makes me feel worse about the move and our GM/front office, if true. You are right that the rapidity of the moves suggest Beane was at least keenly aware of positioning of the chess pieces on the board. That’s got to be huge for a GM, I would think, but even more important is finding a way to make everyone feel like your suggested moves make sense. How many of these types of moves fall through for Beane and we never hear about them? Maybe lots, but he probably gets a hell of a lot of intel by trying to make them happen. Bavasi problably inquires a lot too, but what do we have to show for it most of the time?
22…I think you’re analysis is good, but to Beane it may not be about the player per se. Thus, he could have been looking at his team’s deficiencies (lack of outfielders)and began to compile a list. This list would be where his biases (based on his own internal analysis) comes in. The outfielder would need to be: preferably young, undervalued, able to work counts and draw walks, etc.
Then he probably called around. Hearing what teams would take for given players, and considering the options, he went for Langerhans. My feeling is that he might have stayed with Langerhans, if nothing else came available. It is in this last step that we see a real difference. Assuming that Snelling became available to him after he made the move for Langerhans, he decided not to be “wed” to the player he had just acquired, and pulled the trigger on a perceived upgrade.
Or, he could have just been “infactuated” with Snelling.
By the way…how’s Fruto doing now?
As a starter (!) for AAA Columbus, he’s 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in four starts. He’s gone between 4-6 innings each time out, and has 19 Ks and 16 BBs in 21.1 innings. But he’s allowed just six hits over that span.
Stats from here
Emiliano Fruto is pitching modestly well in AAA with a 2.5 era and 21 Ks in 25 innings in 4 starts. He is struggling mightily with his command. Baseball America has his year to date stats at the following:
Stats
He’s still young enough to gain more command and be a serviceable starter, but he is looking like a long term reliever at this point.
I was bringing this up to suggest that we’re focussing overly much on Doyle.
I think a Vidro/Fruto swap would have been a good one, as the Nats get cheaper and a useful arm, and the Ms get a needed bat. It’s the combo of Snelling and Fruto that really was so awful…
This chain of events is quite interesting, and I say good for Doyle. Oakland will give him the chance with assured playing time that the Mariners and Nats simply weren’t going to, not just now but as long as he is willing to produce. Even if he’s playing for our division rivals now, I’m happy for Doyle.
Dave, you think that Beane had this Langerhans for Doyle trade mapped out, or was he just playing it by ear and, after he picked up Langerhans, it just happened to lead to this?
Also, if the M’s judge players by average and K’s, why is Richie Sexson even here in the first place?
(j/k)
Dave, you think that Beane had this Langerhans for Doyle trade mapped out, or was he just playing it by ear and, after he picked up Langerhans, it just happened to lead to this?
Their AGM, David Forst, told their beat writers that “the first call we received after acquiring Langerhans was from the Nationals.” So it sounds like Bowden was the initiator, though I’d be shocked if the A’s didn’t have some idea that the Nationals would swap Langerhans for Snelling before they ever made the first deal.
There is just no way we NEEDED a highly priced, declining, limited player like Vidro. He’s not a terrible player, no. We’re all thankful that he has not yet pulled a Spezio, but for what he offers he is bloody awful value.
And in order to get him we gave up a potentially more useful vastly cheaper player in Snelling. And another one in Fruto. Frankly, with our pitching the way it is, we’d have been much better off keeping both of those guys.
22, 34: That is definitely one theory on the Nationals side of things. On the game broadcast last night after the deal was announced, Bowden essentially said that he’s always liked Langerhans and called Beane to express interest after the A’s acquired him.
Dave –
What do you think about David Forst as a GM candidate for the Mariners once Bavasi is canned? Putting aside whether the M’s would ever hire him, do you think he would be a good choice? (I ask because I have some familiarity with him.)
I’ve never met or talked with Forst, so I know a bit less about him than I do Antonetti. He’s got a good reputation in sabermetric circles, and a slightly worse reputation among scouts. I don’t really know enough to have a firm opinion on Forst as a GM, but I know Beane thinks he’ll be awesome for someone someday, and I expect he’ll got a shot before too long.
Aaron Gleeman at Rotoworld linked to this thread, Dave, and referenced the Cult of Doyle…
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=13&articleid=28174
Billy Beane is a freaking genius.
I concur with gwangun; players like Doyle, in the aggregate, make all the difference in a team’s overall success. No single player, regardless of skill, is sufficient to carry a team to the post-season, not in baseball. But this is baseball, and Beane made a winning move that we know to be a winning move because we understand Doyle’s talent. We understand that talent using the same tools Beane uses to trump the M’s every (as in, EVERY!!!!!!!!) season.
What an example of how to play the management game. Beane has that one other crucial talent so vitally missing from the M’s: the ability to mitigate mistakes. Beane isn’t so arrogant that he believes every move will work out perfectly – but his roster is so structured that he has the ability to correct mistakes or respond to deficiencies when they play themselves out. I would hazard a guess that the Oakland model, as implemented by Beane, isn’t just better because he understands talent better; the Oakland model is better because it is a flexible system managed by an adaptive manager.
We should have learned by now that big money does not insulate roster moves from underperforming players. You are equally likely to get a player that outperforms his contract as you are a player that underperforms. Marginal players are NOT NOT NOT worth big, long term contracts. Dave has preached from the high superstar, low role player pulpit long enough that eventually, someone will listen.
(and by the way, the FSN reporters are apparently big readers of this blog – apparent because the other day, when calling Guillen’s HR during the post game, “Funk Blast” was heard)
Let me ask you all this. If Doyle gets a hit to win a game against the M’s, will you:
A: Be glad the A’s won
B: Be upset the Mariners lost
If the answer to that question is A, you deserve to get your Mariner fanship revoked.
That is not to say Doyle should be a hated player now, but the A’s are our biggest rival and should never be rooted for in any circumstance when we are playing them. Sorry, that’s just the way it should be!
Question…
I freely admit that Beane is a great baseball mind. But how would he be differnet with the M’s payroll?
It really does seem to me that the sabermetric minded love the small market low resource team that competes at a higher level than they have a finanical right too… But who are the examples of Championship Teams that are run this way? If you have a 100 million dollar payroll do you really need to scrap and scrape along with guys like “Doyle”?
I am not dogging the beauty of the Beane style… I really am asking to be educated. What are the “Doyle-esque” moves made by past team that have made it to the WS? Obviously if you have a 100 million dollar payroll you can still stand to save 7 – 10 million here and there… I just want some non-mariners examples of this type of thinking turning into a Championship… or at least a WS appearence.
(and by the way, the FSN reporters are apparently big readers of this blog – apparent because the other day, when calling Guillen’s HR during the post game, “Funk Blast†was heard)
That’s not something that started here. They put that up on the Safeco scoreboard after Sexson’s first bomb and it apparently has stuck. I’ve yet to hear a good explanation of its origin, but I am not entirely sure I want to know.
That is not to say Doyle should be a hated player now, but the A’s are our biggest rival and should never be rooted for in any circumstance when we are playing them. Sorry, that’s just the way it should be!
I hope Doyle has incredible success against the M’s for years that never contributes to a victory over our team (or a hit against Felix).
Dave,
I agree with you regarding the genuis of Beane. I share your frustration regarding many moves the Ms make. But I disagree that the Ms front office gets everything wrong.
Good moves:
Grabbing Sexson
Bringing back Ibanez
Signing Beltre
Signing Johjima
Locking up Bet and Lopez
I also think the moves this year, with the exception of Weaver, are working out. I like Guillen, Vidro, Ramirez, Batista and Reitsma. I think they are all upgrades over last year.
The Mariners have a good young core of players at or approaching their prime, and the farm system is being re-stocked. Despite a lot of dumb moves in the past (Carlos Guillen!) I think the future is bright
Exactamundo. Flexibility and an ability to mitigate mistakes are undervalued qualities. I really get the feeling that this group of management likes to make decisions and sit tight on them; I think they are overly patient, and don’t balance that with a willingness to move quickly and decisively (and by “they”, I mean people above Bavasi level).
jamesllegade,
The Boston Red Sox signing David Ortiz.
I am not dogging the beauty of the Beane style… I really am asking to be educated. What are the “Doyle-esque†moves made by past team that have made it to the WS? Obviously if you have a 100 million dollar payroll you can still stand to save 7 – 10 million here and there… I just want some non-mariners examples of this type of thinking turning into a Championship… or at least a WS appearence.
The Red Sox signed David Ortiz for $1.25 million after he was released by the Twins because he as a DH who lacked power and had no defensive value. He wasn’t Minnesota’s kind of player. Even after he turned into a superstar, the ’04 Red Sox gave significant playing time to Mark Bellhorn, Kevin Youkilis, and David McCarty, all of whom were this type of role player.
Boston obviously is the most prominant example of a high payroll team that is still exploiting undervalued players, and it’s worked very well for them.
AuburnM,
You really think signing Sexson was a good move?
As Dave points out, it’s not just the home runs that count; it’s the smaller plusses that also add up.
#46
You like reitsma more than soriano? Would you define Sexson as money well spent?
It seems to me like a big part of what we’ve been seeing for a long time with the Mariners — and I think this includes Hargrove, Bavasi, and the ownership — is an unreasonably strong desire for stability over flexibility. We’ve talked a lot about this with regard to consistency over inconsistent talent, but I think there’s more to it than that. Or maybe this is really the same old thing we always complain about, in which case… sorry.
Snelling and Fruto (like many other players) offer flexibility. They add things like depth and free up things like… well, I’m really just talking about salary. In order to get maximum benefit out of players for whom flexibility is a major part of what makes them an asset, you have to be creative and you have to be smart. Weaker minds will gravitate toward players that fit a particular role very well and don’t require very much thought. I can empathize with that. I’m horrible at fantasy baseball, and I need guys who fit their roles, otherwise I end up with all the HRs being hit from the bench when I try to get smart and play matchups and whatnot. But I also tend to lose regardless, which is an important lesson.
But it’s doubly frustrating to watch the situation with the Mariners be driven by incompetence. Hargrove seems like a great guy, but he clearly does not have that kind of creativity, preferring instead stable roles that change as little as possible. And the Mariners let that preference dictate their own personnel decisions, when the real answer would be to find someone who can show some minimal level of creativity without looking like a complete moron. But the rest of the organization doesn’t want that either. They all just want that stability. It’s a match made in heaven, or hell, or whatever.
Good Moves:
Grabbing Sexson
Bringing back Ibanez
Signing Beltre
Signing Johjima
Locking up Bet and Lopez
We’ll agree on Beltre, Johjima, Betancourt, and Lopez – those moves were almost universally praised here on the blog when they happened, and we all pretty much agree that they were the right moves to make at the time. Beltre’s been somewhat of a disappointment performance wise, but he’s still a valuable player, even if somewhat overpaid.
Sexson – no. I hated the signing at the time, and he’s given me no reason to unhate it. He’s a league average first baseman making all-star money. His $14 million salary is essentially untradeable at this point, and the M’s reliance on him to be a premier hitter is one of the main reasons the team has underachieved the past two seasons.
Ibanez – we hated the deal at the time, and obviously, we’ve been wrong. He’s provided a lot of value to the club since returning at a salary that turned out to be a bargain. But I’d argue that his acquisition was the fruit of one of the M’s huge blind spots – believing that a mediocre players career year should be their expected performance going forward. The same analysis that brought us Ibanez also brought us Scott Spiezio, Carl Everett, and Jose Vidro, as well as extensions for Shigeotshi Hasegawa and Julio Mateo. Ibanez has turned out to be a good move, but the reasoning that brought us Ibanez has hurt the franchise.
I also think the moves this year, with the exception of Weaver, are working out. I like Guillen, Vidro, Ramirez, Batista and Reitsma. I think they are all upgrades over last year.
Weaver, Guillen, Vidro, Ramirez, Batista, and Reitsma are going to combine to earn approximately $32 million this year. As a group, they’ve been no better than replacement level talents this year, performing at about what you’d expect to get from a good Triple-A player. You can argue that Batista and Guillen are going to improve, but there’s no way that group is worth $32 million dollars. This offseason was a disaster.
1. Snelling won’t make the difference.
2. Snelling won’t make a difference.
Dave wrote number 1. At least two people, in dismissing Dave’s post, changed what he said to number 2. I can’t tell whether people do this kind of thing on purpose, or whether they genuinely can’t tell the difference.
What an example of how to play the management game. Beane has that one other crucial talent so vitally missing from the M’s: the ability to mitigate mistakes. Beane isn’t so arrogant that he believes every move will work out perfectly – but his roster is so structured that he has the ability to correct mistakes or respond to deficiencies when they play themselves out.
Yeah, that’s what I don’t think Beane gets enough credit for.
Take “Moneyball.” One of the big scenes there is Beane having a conniption because the team drafted Jeremy Bonderman, and that’s terrible because he’s a high school pitcher and they wasted a first round pick … and so the A’s deal him away, and that hasn’t been one that Beane will be telling the grandkids about.
But even though the A’s didn’t have Bonderman to fill the pitching gap, they haven’t missed a beat because they’ve drafted well, found undervalued guys like Haren cheaply (both in player cost and salary) in trades, and read the FA market well for someone like Loaiza. He’s always looking ahead, and always seems to have a backup plan or three in reserve, and that serves him well.
Also, I feel a little badly for him because of the “Moneyball” fallout. He may or may not be arrogant — I haven’t met him — but that’s the way Michael Lewis tends to write. The works of his that I’ve read all have a “this is the way of the future, and if you don’t agree you’re an idiot” vibe to them.
#48
Yes… But I think that is more of a lottery win than a shrewd insider move. I meant getting a good not great player for cheap thereby freeing up your salary.
Weaver, Guillen, Vidro, Ramirez, Batista, and Reitsma are going to combine to earn approximately $32 million this year. As a group, they’ve been no better than replacement level talents this year. You can argue that Batista and Guillen are going to improve, but there’s no way that group is worth $32 million dollars. This offseason was a disaster.
Call me crazy but I never worry about what guys are being paid. It is management’s job to put a competitive team on the field. I don’t care what they’re paid.
Sexson – 35 HR and 100 RBIs every year so far. Isn’t that what you want out of a first baseman?
Vidro is turning out to be just what they hoped he would be, a dependable veteran line drive hitter in the middle of the lineup. How is he not an upgrade over Carl Everett?!
Guillen is another veteran hitter with power. Again, how is he not an upgrade over our third outfielders last year?
Dumping Moyer was stupid, but it was past time to give up on Meche and Piniero. Having done that you need to rebuild the rotation. I think Ramirez and Batista have pitched well enough so far, and Reitsma has been an adequate replacement for Soriano who you had to move to get the starter you needed. I am excited about the future of our pitching: Felix, Morrow, Washburn, Ramirez and Baeck; with Putz,and Reitsma in the pen.
Brilliant? No, but I don’t know how you call it a disaster.
58:
The point is that they could put a much more competitive team on the field if they spent the money more wisely. You would be happier, and you wouldn’t even know why!
David H, Thanks, I was going to say the same thing you beat me to it!
Here’s an alternate view:
Bavasi feels Snelling is damaged goods, trades him to Washington for what turns out to be one of the top hitters on the team. Washington, meanwhile, gives Snelling a little play but ultimately come to the conclusion that he’s damaged goods as well. Good players who can help teams win don’t generally get passed around like a blunt (except in Contract Years) at a Dead show.
Here’s another alternative view.
Snelling gets discarded by two incompetant GMs, gets picked up by a very good GM.
Call me crazy but I never worry about what guys are being paid. It is management’s job to put a competitive team on the field. I don’t care what they’re paid.
You should worry. Opportunity cost is a huge economic factor that affects all aspects of your life. It is just as big a factor (if not magnified) in the economics of baseball. What you spend in one area determines what you can spend in others (and decisions made to go after a particular player affects your ability to go after other, more valuable, players). Sure, we question the wisdom of how dollars will be spent even if freed up by this group, but that doesn’t change the importance of emphasis on realizing value for your dollar.
Call me crazy but I never worry about what guys are being paid. It is management’s job to put a competitive team on the field. I don’t care what they’re paid.
You should. The team has limited resources – in this case, a budget – that they can’t exceed. The M’s spending $32 million on mediocrities is one of the main reasons they don’t have any great hitters on the team – they can’t afford them. If you ignore salary, you’re going to misevaluate players value constantly.
Sexson – 35 HR and 100 RBIs every year so far. Isn’t that what you want out of a first baseman?
You’ve been reading the blog long enough to know that baseball has moved way beyond using HR and RBI as a metric of how good a player is.
Vidro is turning out to be just what they hoped he would be, a dependable veteran line drive hitter in the middle of the lineup. How is he not an upgrade over Carl Everett?!
You’d be an upgrade over Carl Everett – that’s not the baseline for whether a player is a good acquisition or not. They’re paying $6 million for a DH who is slugging .395 while hitting to the absolute peak of his potential. That’s a waste of money and a valuable line-up spot that could be filled by someone who could hit the ball out of the infield.
Guillen is another veteran hitter with power. Again, how is he not an upgrade over our third outfielders last year?
Again, “upgrade over worst in the league” is not how you evaluate whether a player is helping a team win. Guillen’s been a below average outfielder so far – I think he’ll get better, but since you’re trying to justify moves with April performances, you don’t get Guillen on your side.
I think Ramirez and Batista have pitched well enough so far
They’ve combined to give up 33 runs in 46 1/3 innings. That’s 6.41 runs per game. That’s horrible.
Reitsma has been an adequate replacement for Soriano who you had to move to get the starter you needed.
The M’s didn’t have to trade Soriano – they chose to. Pitchers of Horacio Ramirez’s quality were floating around on waivers.
Brilliant? No, but I don’t know how you call it a disaster.
The team spent a metric ton of money to get older and not improve. It’s the definition of a disaster.
Snelling gets discarded by two incompetant GMs, gets picked up by a very good GM.
Bowden is not my favorite GM, but he’s far from incompetant. He got Snelling and Fruto from the M’s, fleeced the Reds last summer in getting Kearns and Lopez for a couple of fungible relievers and some random veterans, and generally has done a good job getting prospects for the fading vets on the Nats roster. He hasn’t been perfect, and I wouldn’t be sad if they replaced him in the offseason, but for a team like the Nats that’s playing for the long-term and utterly punting 2007, he’s done pretty well.
Have you seen his FA signings?
THE COST was the whole reason I abhorred the Snelling/Fruto for Vidro deal. I don’t mind trading pieces to get value. After several injuries that slowed development and diminished his skills, that is what Snelling had become…a piece and nothing more. You feel you can get something more that helps you now…great go get the deal done. But the staggering cost for Vidro will limit this organizations capability to bring in better players in the future and this is what kills me! Players like Sexson and Vidro who have high-priced long-term deals are nothing more than cement shoes on the Mariners for the future…especially as their skills decline.
What was Bavasi doing??? No team wanted to touch Vidro…Bowden couldn’t give him away. The BB walks into town to not only give Bowden something in return…but then EXTENDS his cement shoes into the FUTURE!!!
AAArrrrgggghhh!!!!
#63
Why should I worry? As a fan I only care about one thing: winning.
Armstrong has to wory about the big picture, not me.
Have you seen his FA signings?
Guzman is terrible. Besides that, who’s still on the roster who’s such a disaster? He tends to have too quick of a trigger finger to keep non-performers around for long.
Question for AuburnM…. What is your thought process on 100 rbi’s being good?
I’m no Kreskin, but I think after May is over you’ll understand why you should worry. A 12-10 April that saw this team win against terrible teams and lose to good ones isn’t enough to get me to save up for playoff tickets quite yet.
#70
100 RBI is a good thing. Why?
#49
Dave-
Was that a one year deal for Ortiz? Or was it a 4 year 17 million dollar deal? I can’t remember and can’t find the transaction history.
Mark Bellhorn, Kevin Youkilis, and David McCarty are exactly the kind of moves I was looking for… thank you.
How about some more WS teams and their uber-smart deals?
#67
Vidro and Sexson are in their early 30s! They have a bunch of good years left. Sexson will hit, and so far the “Vidro will hit better as a DH” theory is working out just as the Ms hoped. He may be a productive DH for at least another five years.
AuburnM,
Because how much they spend on a medicore first baseman affects how much they win. Giving Sexson 14m to play first base is silly when you could have Broussard play there and save 10m. You keep Snelling to be the left handed bat of the bench. Don’t pay Vidro 6m to DH. Now we have two holes to fill DH/RH Bench Bat/Back Up 1B. You hope that the RH Bench Bat and back up 1B can be the same person. Either way with Sexson and Vidro not there you have 20m to spend on filling those holes.
Do you see how caring about money = caring about the team winning.
I think AuburnM has a point of sorts sometimes… I wonder every now and again how much I actually gain in terms of enjoyment by all of the obsessing over contracts and value and such. Why not just root for the product on the field? Why waste time gnashing your teeth over the direction of the franchise?
I also don’t feel very in control of it. It’s clearly a big part of how I am as a fan to worry about the direction of franchises and such. But it’s a little weird that my most immutable sports loyalty is the one that is the hardest for me to just relax about and cheer for.
Who’s still on the roster? How does that relate to the signings themselves? If we traded Sexson away this second, it’s not like his signing would suddenly have not happened.
Bowden has a knack for doing completely random things, seeing them work out, and then overdoing them (see: NRIs). He collects outfielders and sits on them when he should trade them (Soriano). His farm system is terrible. His major league team is terrible. Part of that is due to when MLB owned the franchise, but the Reds weren’t significantly better under his tenure. He has no real concept of how to build a team – he just goes ‘oooh, shiny!’ and grabs it.
He made two great trades last year. His partners were Bavasi and Krivsky. If I had one leg, I’m pretty sure I could hobble faster than a dude with no legs.
For those of you who say Snelling will come back to “haunt the Mariners” this year and that “there is a good chance Snelling will outperform Vidro this year”, are also missing the point of Dave’s post. Dave said Snelling “won’t make the difference between the M’s and A’s winning the AL West”, so how is that haunting us? And I really don’t see how you can project Snelling outperforming Vidro, what has Snelling EVER done at the MLB level except for get traded and put on the DL? It seems some of you are still hung up on Snelling as a great prospect with the cool accent.
I totally agree with Dave on this one, the A’s just do their jobs better in the front office than the M’s and that’s tough to swallow as a fan.
Side note, one of the main reasons I like this site are the type of posts about Washburn’s numbers looking good so far, but they’ve come against inferior hitting teams. You never see that sort of writing the papers and you’ll never hear it from Krueger, Blowers, etc… Thanks to Dave for seeing more than just the final scores.
#75
I get it, but I still don’t care.
You are speculating about what might have been, or what might be. I don’t care. If the Ms are winning I am happy, if they are losing I am unhappy. I’m a simple guy.
Right now I see a team full of proven, but not over-the-hill veterans, mixed in with some exciting young talent. Looks pretty good to me.
Was that a one year deal for Ortiz? Or was it a 4 year 17 million dollar deal? I can’t remember and can’t find the transaction history.
It was a one year deal, but because Ortiz didn’t have much service time, he wasn’t FA eligible after it expired. So, the Red Sox still had him under their control, and they gave him a 3 year, $18 million extension after that year. Which also proved to be a huge bargain.
How about some more WS teams and their uber-smart deals?
The Tigers got Marcus Thames (who I was fawning for on the blog for years) for nothing, then watched him become one of their best hitters in the first half, leading to their huge lead in the AL Central. They got Chris Shelton in the rule 5 draft. They got Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago. They’re not a classic undervalued player team, but they made a lot of moves that seemed like nothing transactions at the time and turned out to be huge assets.
Vidro and Sexson are in their early 30s! They have a bunch of good years left. Sexson will hit, and so far the “Vidro will hit better as a DH†theory is working out just as the Ms hoped. He may be a productive DH for at least another five years.
Auburn, we’re trying to help you here, but you don’t have reason or logic on your side. If you’re interested in learning more about the game, there’s a lot of people here who will help you. If you’re not, just tell us, and we’ll stop trying.
AuburnM,
Vidro is slugging .391. Let me repeat Vidro is slugging .391. And that’s with him hitting .315. How can you even argue with a straight face that he can be productive for 5 more years. He slugged .395 last year, so we can’t just assume this isn’t a pattern.
Sexson may hit. It sure would be hard for him to hit less than he is now. But I could probably name 10 players the Mariners could have picked up for under $1m who would have out hit him. Not to mention Broussard, who is already on the team.
Why should I worry? As a fan I only care about one thing: winning.
I don’t believe that’s true. If all you cared about was winning, you could just check in on the box score every day to see whether the team won or not. You could even read a game recap or two, and watch some games on TV or in person.
But if all you cared about was winning, you certainly wouldn’t need to be here.
Dave, I’m not a Mariners fan at all, I just enjoy what you write, so could you explain why you’re so down on Sexson?
While the last two years of Sexson’s contract could be scary, he is not the type of player that will age gracefully, Sexson has contributed more wins above replacement than any other player signed in 2004 except Carlos Beltran.
You can argue that since the Mariners have been so bad the last two years that it doesn’t matter what kind of production they could get, but what’s the alternative to Sexson? Is there any young player in the organization that could have played first the last two years? Thanks.
#72
Is it at all possible that RBI’s are not a accurate indicator of how valuable or successful a player is?
You are speculating about what might have been, or what might be. I don’t care. If the Ms are winning I am happy, if they are losing I am unhappy. I’m a simple guy.
Then honestly, this probably isn’t the blog for you.
Personally, when there’s a game going, I’m rooting for the Mariners. When there’s not a game going, I’m thinking about the Mariners.
I find it really hard to think about a team without going ‘how might this team get better’? I’m not sure how you manage it.
Who’s still on the roster? How does that relate to the signings themselves? If we traded Sexson away this second, it’s not like his signing would suddenly have not happened.
If Seattle trades Sexson right now, his contract would be off the books and the M’s would have the money to spend elsewhere. That mitigates the effects of the signings themselves. Bowden is pretty good that that.
Bowden has a knack for doing completely random things, seeing them work out, and then overdoing them (see: NRIs). He collects outfielders and sits on them when he should trade them (Soriano). His farm system is terrible. His major league team is terrible. Part of that is due to when MLB owned the franchise, but the Reds weren’t significantly better under his tenure. He has no real concept of how to build a team – he just goes ‘oooh, shiny!’ and grabs it.
He’s always said that the offers for Soriano aren’t what the media reported, and that if he had gotten something he considered better than the two first-round picks, he’d have done it. He always does set a high value on his players that are in demand, and in that case it meant he lost Soriano to free agency. But in the Vidro case, it meant that he got two useful players for him, instead of a lesser price for a hobbled player at the deadline. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
The Nationals were in terrible shape when they arrived in Washington, and the fact that there was little talent in the majors or the farm system is not Bowden’s fault. The team is better off now that it was when he took the job — regardless of the record right now, they at least have some pieces to build around that they didn’t have before.
Dave, I’m not a Mariners fan at all, I just enjoy what you write, so could you explain why you’re so down on Sexson?
Here’s something I wrote over the offseason that should get you started.
Richie Sexson, Albatross
Dave-
I think this blog is great. Very thought provoking. I just think people lose track of what matters. If the Mariners are winning then whatever the front office did to prepare the team for that year de facto was successful.
You could say the same thing about Bill Bavasi. The problem with both of them is that they should have much more talent then they actually do.
You could say the same thing about Bill Bavasi. The problem with both of them is that they should have much more talent then they actually do.
Again, I don’t think Bowden is a fantastic GM, but he’s had less time and less to work with than Bavasi, and he’s done pretty well with what he has.
If you make as many deals as Bowden does, some work out and some don’t. For a GM forced to play Low-Budget Jeopardy this spring with an awful lot of holes to fill, he’s done as well as can be expected.
AuburnM,
So you are saying that if the front office made moves that allowed the team to win 85 games this year, make the playoffs, get bounced by the red sox in the first round, and then lose 100 games a year for the next 3 years because we have old untradeable players with big contracts who keep getting worse; that we should be happy?
Part of being a fan is wanting them to win today, but realizing there is a game tomorrow, and the next day.
Here’s something I wrote over the offseason that should get you started.
Makes sense. Interestingly, while he rates terribly in any play by play defensive system, rate2 loves Sexson, which says to me that he simply had a ton of balls hit directly at him the last couple years.
If you had to go back to 2004, who would be the Mariners first baseman the last couple years?
And I really don’t see how you can project Snelling outperforming Vidro, what has Snelling EVER done at the MLB level except for get traded and put on the DL?
Chris Snelling has a career on-base percentage of .345 as a major leaguer. The league average OBP last year was .339.
Chris Snelling has earned an extra-base hit in 8.5% of his major league at-bats. Last year in the American League, there was an extra-base hit in 8.6% of all at-bats.
So Snelling has gotten on base at a league average pace, and gotten extra-base hits at a league average pace. To imply that he’s shown nothing in the majors is simply not true.
Bermanator, anyone could have improved the franchise given the tools Bowden’s been given – it’s not really very hard to turn from ‘hilariously awful’ to simply ‘awful’. The entire Soriano saga was bizarre. Essentially he turned Wilkerson and Sledge into a wasted career year from Alfonso and two first round draft picks. Considering the help that team needs now (and down the road too, I agree), I don’t see how he can be praised for handling the situation the way he did.
#89
First: Mariners winning is an illusion right now built upon playing the worst teams in the league to look like they have a respectable record.
Second: I’m worry about how they spend their money or don’t because this is how we got 3 consecutive years of LOSING!!! Which I can’t stand. The team wasn’t managed correctly to maintain a winning team on the field.
Third: Contracts are what keep us from getting what we need to win in the future. Currently, we’ve shown we can’t plug holes through the farm system for a couple of years still. So that means trades or FA. If we don’t have the money, nothing will allow us to get what we need to win.
Fourth: I want to see Felix pitch for a long, long time in a Mariners uniform. If we continue to have our money tied up in worthless players…the team will plead poverty while they lose Felix to those Damn Yankees!!!
You should be VERY concerned about how this team spends money!
To me, the Beane vs. Bowden thing is the most intriguing thing at all.
Why didn’t Bowden get Langerhans from the Braves straight up? Is this a “Won’t trade in the division” thing or the fact that Beane is more active on making contacts than Bowden is? I’m just really curious as to how this all came to be, but I’m sure we’ll never know.
Bowden is really interesting. He can do some moves that make a lot of sense and obviously he got the upper hand (with Cincinatti, getting Kearns and Lopez for relievers) and ditching Vidro’s contract, getting two useful players back on top of that, then there’s times where he signs Christian Guzman for ridiculous amounts. I’d really like to know his thought process at times.
Also, we all thought he lost out big trading Wilkerson and Sledge for Soriano, but he got a hell of a year out of Soriano and ended up getting 2 draft picks when he left… so that one ended up working out after all.
Makes sense. Interestingly, while he rates terribly in any play by play defensive system, rate2 loves Sexson, which says to me that he simply had a ton of balls hit directly at him the last couple years.
BP’s defensive metrics are horrible, so yea, there could be a distribution bias that is causing Rate2 to like him. I think it’s pretty obvious that Sexson is a bad defensive player, personally.
Perhaps you just misunderstand what many fans here are saying. The Ms 12-10 record is nice, everyone can enjoy it. However when one examines who we played and who we have coming at us in the next 45 days…you better take a snapshot right now. The outlook is not very good for us to continue to win. We do not drive in runs, we do not walk, we do not hit well in run-scoring situations. Our pitchers do not miss many bats, they rarely strike anyone out and they walk way too many runners. Frankly, there are a few AAA teams that could beat us. That is scary.
A’s just got Jack Cust too, for PTBN.
Essentially he turned Wilkerson and Sledge into a wasted career year from Alfonso and two first round draft picks.
You act as though that’s a bad thing. Did Wilkerson and Sledge morph into great players without my noticing?
I think this blog is great. Very thought provoking. I just think people lose track of what matters. If the Mariners are winning then whatever the front office did to prepare the team for that year de facto was successful.
The Mariners tomorrow trade Felix to the Devil Rays for Jae Seo. Seo continues to pitch like the mediocre pitcher he is, but simultaneously, the M’s call up Wladimir Balentien and Adam Jones from Tacoma, and they each hit .400 with 30 home runs the rest of the year, leading a resurgent offense to 88 wins and the AL West title.
According to you, Felix for Jae Seo = Good Move!
No, but they are adequate stopgaps. Good GM’s don’t make a dash for the playoffs when they’re still miles off it. If that trade hadn’t happened, they’d both still be around, and the Nats outfield wouldn’t be so terrible. They’d have been worse last year, sure. But they sucked last year anyway.
My philosophy on team building is to work up a talent core that can get you to the playoffs, and then push hard for it. Obviously this has to be balanced out with fan expectations, but it seems to me that any other method is just going to waste you lots of money.
#s 92, 96, 99
I disagree that April is an illusion. I think this team is betterthan their April record indicates. (Take Weaver’s four starts out, for instance) I think management has put a team out there that can be good this year and for the next several years.
If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time.
FAQ: Funk blast
I think management has put a team out there that can be good this year and for the next several years.
Why do you think that? What is your evidence for making this claim?
I think management has put a team out there that can be good this year and for the next several years.
If by “good” you mean “Felix plus a collection of players that pencils out to mediocre, .500 talent should be an 85 win team, and maybe 90 if they get lucky”, you’re right. Subtract Felix and you get a .500 team, basically. And putting in Baek for Weaver SHOULD improve the team.
There’s no reason you should have to spend 100 million+ in salary to get a .500 team, though… unless you manage the franchise poorly. That, and Felix won’t be cheap for TOO much longer.
Remember, folks, that getting players in their mid to late 30s NOW means that they will inevitably decline in future years.
No, but they are adequate stopgaps. Good GM’s don’t make a dash for the playoffs when they’re still miles off it. If that trade hadn’t happened, they’d both still be around, and the Nats outfield wouldn’t be so terrible. They’d have been worse last year, sure. But they sucked last year anyway.
My philosophy on team building is to work up a talent core that can get you to the playoffs, and then push hard for it. Obviously this has to be balanced out with fan expectations, but it seems to me that any other method is just going to waste you lots of money.
I don’t see how those two paragraphs go together in this case. Neither Wilkerson nor Sledge were part of the talent core of a potential playoff team in Washington, so why not let them go for someone more talented? OK, so Soriano left as a free agent, but two high draft picks isn’t a bad ultimate return for Wilkerson and Sledge.
The Nats would suck with or without Wilkerson and Sledge. Instead of adequate stopgaps, they’re trying out players they hope will be longer-term solutions. In the case of Logan, they’re probably wrong. But so what? It’s not going to cost the team a playoff spot — it’ll just mean winning 60 games instead of 65 or whatever.
The perception in Washington tends to be that Bowden isn’t long for the job — that when the new stadium comes, a new GM will come along with it. I won’t be sad if that’s the case, because I like his low-budget decisions better than his big-budget ones. But for this team, in this stage of life, he’s doing OK.
#98
Sorry for derailing here, but say that you were attempting to assemble a winning team in 2004, admittedly a misguided effort, and you needed a first baseman. If not Sexson, then who? Delgado was the other big first baseman available, and he seems to share the exact same flaws. Would Bucky Jacobsen or Greg Dobbs have been adequate replacements?
I spend most of my time hoping the Dodgers trade with Bavasi, but Sexson has never struck me as a terrible move.
Oh, and here’s the thing as to why it’s important to manage your franchise well.
During the late 1980′s and 1990′s, the Mariner farm system produced:
Edgar
Junior
Tino
Boone
A-Rod
Derek Lowe
Jason Varitek
David Ortiz
We also managed to acquire in astute trades:
Buhner
Randy
Jamie
Freddy
Carlos Guillen
That’s some pretty good talent right there- multiple slam-dunk HOF’ers, and a BUNCH of All-Stars. I could point to teams that won multiple World Series that don’t have kind of production backing them. From 1995-2003, it got us a grand total of 4 playoff appearances in 9 years, and only ONE year of a truly outstanding team winning more than 91 games (2001).
It’s VERY unlikely you’ll see a Mariner team with 3 HOF’ers (maybe 4 if you toss in Edgar) on the field at the same time again anytime soon wearing our uniform…and we blew it. THAT is why you manage your franchise well, because sometimes it’s 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of famine.
um. Damn Our Yonderly Lachrymogenic Executives?
p.s. In more Quality Management(TM) it isn’t that Weaver is a poor pitcher, it’s that his mindset is wrong.
Reply to 94,
Yes, he might have some numbers that look like they make your argument, and I’ll come back to that, but the point I was making is that his sample size is very small. He’s been hurt too much to put together a realistic prediction. I just don’t think he’s strung enough AB’s together.
However, back to your argument. I personally think given the chance, Snelling can hit well. I’m a big fan of his. But, I don’t see how you can predict, or make your argument, how he will do based on his small, non-continuous MLB career. The jury is still out on him and with his health, I’m afraid it will always be so.
Where did this idea come from that the Ms are old?
Johjima, 30
Sexson, 32
Beltre, 28
Ibanez, 34
Ichiro, 33
Guillen, 30
Vidro, 32
Washburn, 32
Batista, 36
Ramirez, 27
Reitsma, 29
Putz, 30
And Lopez, Betancourt and Morrow are just kids.
Again, I see I team that can be good for many years.
#114 It’s entirely reasonable to say that all those players except for Beltre have peaked and are due for a decline. Very few players get better after 30.
Sorry for derailing here, but say that you were attempting to assemble a winning team in 2004, admittedly a misguided effort, and you needed a first baseman. If not Sexson, then who? Delgado was the other big first baseman available, and he seems to share the exact same flaws. Would Bucky Jacobsen or Greg Dobbs have been adequate replacements?
There are a lot more ways to acquire players than free agency. Chris Shelton was taken in the Rule 5 draft by the Tigers that winter, so he cost them a grand total of $50,000.
You aren’t required to have a high salary first baseman. It’s pretty easy to find a guy who can hit .270/.350/.450 and play adequate defense for the league minimum, then spend the rest of your money on more important positions.
Snelling’s playing time that we all hoped for in Oakland just got stonewalled by Jack Cust…To the bench Snelling goes again!
Every time you think he’ll get a shot to get some PT he gets relegated to the pine….and then during his random starts and PH’s people rag on his inconsistency…baseball is such a cruel sport to Snelling.
116
Fair enough, I forgot that Shelton was taken that year.
117. Snelling should get plenty of starts. Right now their outfield is Shannon Stewart, Snelling, and Danny Putnam. I don’t think he’ll need to worry about playtime until Bradley and Swisher come back.
Again, I see I team that can be good for many years.
Dan Wilson’s OPS’s after age 33: .611, .615, .399
John Olerud’s SLG, ages 33 and 34: .390 and .374
Bret Boone’s OBP, age 35 and 36 (as Mariner): .317 and .299
All 3 of those players were All-Stars, by the way- good players arguably among the top 100 players ever at their position (Wilson’s probably the most arguable, and I’d put him around 90-100).
So, basically…no. It’s actually pretty common to start tanking in your early to mid 30′s…like what Vidro is doing now by slugging less than .400.
118: don’t forget about trades…we have no idea what the Ms could have acquired in that avenue as well in ’04.
Bermanator, I was trying to point out that Bowden made his push for adequacy way too early and essentially ended up going in circles. Two first round picks out of it isn’t so shabby, but he didn’t trade for Soriano in the first place with that as his primary objective.
Speaking of which, do the Cubs have to give the Nats their pick? I assumed the Nationals only got the one extra one from the supplementary round, but I don’t know the rule that well.
But herein lies the Mariners dilemma, no matter how smart or stupid the management is: Who was out there these past two offseasons that was worth spending $32 million on, that was willing to move up to Seattle to play baseball for the last place Mariners? Remember, making FA signings are in part a matter of enticing players to come play for you, and Seattle has been for a variety of reasons, some beyond the team’s control, an undesirable place to play for some of the top FAs out there.
That does not make spending $32 million on mediocrities a good call. But given the convoluted circumstances that is the free agent market in MLB and the team’s roster situation, was there really, honestly a feasible, alternative way to spend that money?
123: The money could have been spent enriching our minor league system, for instance. Ironically, Bavasi starting doing some of that early on and was praised in this space for doing so. Then he started feeling that his job was on the line and went for more short term fixes (or so it seems).
There is no golden rule that says you must spend 100 million to compete. Even if we wanted to spend the 32 million on payroll, why not pay a few mega-studs (ok, maybe none were available this past winter) and fill the rest with scrubs. In the aggregate, you probably realize better performance.
But given the convoluted circumstances that is the free agent market in MLB and the team’s roster situation, was there really, honestly a feasible, alternative way to spend that money?
Hi, I’d like to introduce you to Daisuke Matsuzaka. You know, the overpriced FA the Red Sox paid for? Oh, wait…
Gomez,
To answer simply. Yes. Guys who are liable to be NRI, get a minor league deal, or sign for the league minimum put the location of where they are going to play fairly low on their priorities.
That does not make spending $32 million on mediocrities a good call. But given the convoluted circumstances that is the free agent market in MLB and the team’s roster situation, was there really, honestly a feasible, alternative way to spend that money?
This was a horrible off-season to sign free agents, no doubt. But I believe they could have made some trades for high priced players. Manny Ramirez was available – the price was high, but the Red Sox were willing to move him. The Braves would have moved Tim Hudson if the M’s had put together a better offer. Frank Thomas for $9 million a year was reasonable, as was David Dellucci for $5 million a year. Akinori Iwamura looked like the steal of the century before he got hurt.
It would have required being selective and being willing to rely on some unproven role players in certain spots (Baek instead of Weaver, for instance), but it could have been done.
One question I have is that Billy Beane is basically treated as a god when it comes to building a team. What have the A’s won under his tenure? They have exactly the same number of WS appearances as the M’s do under his tenure. Also one thing maybe Dave can shed some light on is that the A’s are always called a small market team. They are in the Bay area and have a HUGE population base. When they had the bash brothers they were drawing very well and making money. Now they are treated as a small market team cause they have no loyal fan base / support (not because they are actually in a small market)
Dave,
You know what would be really great? Well… besides the great content you guys put out.
Listing the number of posts a commenter has med. Either that or some type of mojo scale where you give out commenters points for enlightening comments. I find myself scanning through the comments only to read what the you guys (USSM) write due to some of the stuff that you have to wade through sometimes.
128: The short, oversimplified reason that Billy Beane is respected is because he’s kept the A’s as legitimate playoff contenders from 2000-2006 (and you could argue 1999, as well) while operating with a payroll that has not ever been in the top half of MLB.
What have the A’s won? They’ve won a whole lot of games in the last seven years and made the playoffs in five of those years.
Is it Beane’s fault that Gil Heredia had to start Game 5 of the 2000 ALDS, as the A’s needed to bleed their rotation dry just to make the playoffs that year? Other playoff things you can’t blame Beane for: Jeremy Giambi’s aversion to sliding…Tejada/Byrnes baserunning gaffes in 2003 ALDS…a white hot Tigers team steamrolling the A’s in 2006.
One question I have is that Billy Beane is basically treated as a god when it comes to building a team. What have the A’s won under his tenure?
Actually, I’ve repeatedly called the Cleveland Indians the best run organization in baseball the last three years. But, beyond that, since Beane took over in 1998, the A’s have won 74, 87, 91, 102, 103, 96, 91, 88, and 93 games. That’s just a remarkable run of success no matter what team you’re running.
They have exactly the same number of WS appearances as the M’s do under his tenure.
Regular season success is a far better indicator of management skill than playoff success. It’s much harder to consistently be a great team for 162 games from April to September than for 15 games in October.
Also one thing maybe Dave can shed some light on is that the A’s are always called a small market team. They are in the Bay area and have a HUGE population base.
That they share with the Giants, who have a beautiful stadium in a good part of San Franscisco. The A’s have a horrible stadium in the ghetto of Oakland. It’s not a surprise that the Giants dominate the market.
When they had the bash brothers they were drawing very well and making money. Now they are treated as a small market team cause they have no loyal fan base / support (not because they are actually in a small market)
Actually, Sandy Alderson laid the foundation for the A’s organization because he recognized that they needed to develop talent from within, since they couldn’t compete with the escalating salaries of the open market.
The A’s are in the bottom half of revenues for MLB clubs. Small market might not be the right word, since a large part of that is their horrible stadium, but it has the same effect on the management team – they don’t have a lot of money to spend, and they win anyways.
To me, the point of this was not that Snelling is better than the guys we got, it’s the dollar and soft costs that are bad. Of the off season pickups, only Weaver blows. Vidro is doing his thing, Batista is ok, HoRam is ok. Even Washburn is ok. But consider, if things blow up, how to you rebuild this team? How do you do a Marlins with the over aged, over paid contracts? Additionally, the high costs of each prevents even moderate moves during the season. $8m for Weaver, blah. Well, my dumb post of the week, I agree with the guy above, they are winning now, might as well enjoy. I am cringing about this road trip, however. (Hey, we get to see the kid 19 times a year tho!!)
Thanks for the light on the small market desgination although I still maintain that they can do something about their revenue stream either by building a new stadium or moving. I have been to the coliseum and it is truly a bad park but they need to work on a new stadium closer to the water or down in San Jose / somewhere else in the bay.
To compare the A’s to a small market team is not fair to the Milwaukee’s, KC, Cincinatti’s of the world. If you take the population of the metro bay area and divide that by 2 (giants / a’s) they still have a larger target fan base than many clubs out there.
95: Graham, to the extent it matters to Mariner fans on a Mariner site (probably not much), you can’t forget to include Stan Kasten’s influence as a control on Bowden. Although he has never stated this directly, Kasten has at least indicated he put his foot down on one potential Soriano trade. So it seems possible Bowden would have pulled the trigger on a trade but for Kasten’s veto. (You can perhaps find fault with how Bowden comported himself in the run-up to the deadline and make the claim that his “My phone is on fire!” bluster did not seem genuine to teams assessing the Soriano market, or whatever.)
Anyway, as for Doyle, well it’s been fun. I’m happy for him that he was traded. This is out mighty dysfunctional roster out here, and he was never going to get a clean shot to make or break. As for the comment about Casto, well, he’s a younger prospect — six days younger, if I recall. More seriously, there’s an organizational bias. He’s a product of the system, probably the only upper-level position player prospect who could even contribute in some way on an MLB team, and he’s an early fruit of the team’s developmental plan, creatively entitled “The Plan.”
Thanks for the light on the small market desgination although I still maintain that they can do something about their revenue stream either by building a new stadium or moving. I have been to the coliseum and it is truly a bad park but they need to work on a new stadium closer to the water or down in San Jose / somewhere else in the bay.
They’ve announced plans to build a new ballpark in Fremont, which should drive their revenues up quite a bit if they can get it built.
jg,
Finally, on November 7, 2006, many media sources announced the Athletics would be leaving Oakland as early as 2010 for a new stadium in the city of Fremont which was confirmed the next day by the Fremont City Council. The team will be playing in what is planned to be called Cisco Field, a 36,000 seat baseball only facility. [3]. The proposed ballpark would be part of a larger “ballpark village” which would include retail and residential development.
111. You forgot Omar Vizquel…
Ironic, but
sounds exactly like the crap I had to listen to for nine innings at yesterday’s game. Except the people sitting behind me weren’t talking about Snelling. I’ll give you one guess who was the object of their affection.
It must feel good to know that your team can consistently be as good (or better) than your division rivals….at 2/3 the cost.
138:
Let me guess, WFB?
Or Edgar. Depends on the tone of your question.
there is no irrational love for Edgar.
Of course it was WFB.
Nick…you just blew my mind. Willie as an abstraction. This invites discussions of meta-grit and meta-scrappiness. Awesome!
manzell: trades him to Washington for what turns out to be one of the top hitters on the team.
That a 315/357/391 hitter is one of the top hitter on the team is not the defense of Bavasi’s team building that you seem to think that it is.
jgwood675: What have the A’s won under his tenure?
Answer: A hell of a lot of baseball games. Next question?
Great post, Dave. It’s funny; ever since I read Moneyball, I just stare at the Mariners and wonder how — with all the information out there about how to do things better than they’ve been done — they can continue to just do things the same old crappy way.
It’s got to be the definition of insanity. Unfortunately for the M’s front office, they have someone in their own division to consistently expose that the emporer has no pants over and over again.
I’m not sure I QUITE understand the disdain for Beane.
Sure, he hasn’t won a Series championship. Neither have the Mariners. And Beane sure spent a lot less money doing it. That, at least, deserves some respect…
Look at what the M’s have done trying to fill the DH spot since Edgar retired. DH should be the easiest position in the lineup to fill. What have the M’s done?
2005, first half: moved Ibanez from LF to DH, Winn from CF to LF, and Reed from AAA to CF. Overall, a fairly good plan. Ibanez posted an OPS+ of 111, and Winn went from a marginal defensive CF to a plus defensive LF, though still underperforming with the bat. Reed disappointed with an OPS+ of 81.
2005, early Aug: Winn traded to SF, Doyle moved to LF. Yay! What we’ve all been waiting for.
2005, Aug 11 to end of year: Doyle to DL with knee injury, Ibanez back to LF, Morse/Dobbs to DH. Boo! Boo hoo, even, but actually a reasonable move by the M’s to fill the hole created by Doyle’s injury. Jamal Strong was the best in-house option to fill an OF spot, but he clearly wasn’t a ML starting OF. However, Dobbs was terrible (OPS+ of 64). Morse was respectable on the year (OPS+93), but most of that was early in the season (he went 13-60 with only 2 XBHs after Doyle went down) and our DH production fell off the table.
2006 – first half: Ibanez, unhappy at DH, back to LF, Crazy Carl Everett signed to provide veteran LH sock at DH. Horrible move, singing an overpriced, declining FA to fill the slot. Everett posts an OPS+ of 74 through 92 games until he is DFA’d, at a cost of $3.4 Million. Meanwhile, Roberto Petagine (2006 salary, $450k) posts higher OBP and SLG than Everett while rotting on the bench.
2006 – 2nd half: Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin Soo Choo, and Shawn Nottingham (the PTBNL) traded to Cleveland for Eduardo Perez and Ben Broussard (in two separate transactions), Everett DFA’d. Perez/Broussard platoon at DH. Horrible, horrible move. Perez and Broussard suck (OPS+ of 48 and 85 respectively) for the M’s, while Choo goes on to post an OPS+ of 121 the rest of the year with Cleveland as a decent defensive corner OF, and Cleveland gets a 20 year old AAA SS prospect.
2007 – Perez retires, Doyle, back from injury, traded with Fruto to Washington for Jose Vidro. Vidro to DH, Broussard to bench. Ibanez (now aged 35) remains in LF.
So, to sum it all up, when the promises of 2005 (a healthy Doyle and an emerging Reed) went bust, the team initially reacted well (plugging in the best AAA bats, Morse and Dobbs, into DH and being patient with Reed). But then in the offseason, they royaly screwed up, deciding youth could not be trusted, and rather than leaving Morse/Dobbs in the role, or giving journeyman Petagine (or any other similar AAAA hitter, or even Choo for that matter) a shot, they overpay for Everett. Then, when that doesn’t work out, they panic, trade away two young prospects for two role players, one of which retires at the end of the season while the other is utterly forgotten at the end of the bench (14 PAs so far this year for Broussard). Then, again, rather than find someone either in-house ( Broussard, Morse, Lahair, Navarro) or cheap (Burke, for instance) or expensive-but-disposable (Piazza, Lofton, Alou), they trade two more prospects for an aging, injured, NL middle infielder, and then extend his contract .
At any point along the way after Doyle’s 2005 injury, if the M’s had just done nothing and stuck with what they had, they would have been better off. Today, we’d have Doyle as our DH, Choo as our 4th OF, Fruto and Cabrerra still in our farm system (or else packaged for something valuable, like maybe a decent #4 SP), $10 million extra cash to spend on something we needed (like a decent #3 SP). Or, if you think Doyle is damaged goods, we could’ve had Petagine as our DH, Choo as our 4th OF, Cabrera and Fruto in our farm system, joined by some prospect we flipped Damaged-goods-Doyle for, and an extra $10 million in the bank for something we need, like a, well, you get the picture.
Instead, in trying to fill the easiest spot on the roster to fill, we’ve lost four prospects, $10 million, and two years, and even at that high cost, our solution is 32 years old with bad knees, no power, and only one more year under team control (for whatever it’s worth).
My question is if Vidro is considered > than Langerhans? If that is the case then isn’t it a good trade for the Ms?
I know Vidro makes more money, but to a team like the Mariners that doesn’t appear to be that big of a deal. They were able to trade Snelling for a guy who is decent and less than a month later the Nationals had to dump for a fringe OF. Basically, it appears we sold higher than the Nationals…does that make us smarter than the Nats or smart?
Well, Langerhans + 6 million spent on a better hitter than Vidro > Vidro. Shouldn’t be hard to do.
A’s also traded for Jack Cust today. Hello OBP!!
So there is a six million dollar hitter out there that we missed out on in FA that would be putting up better numbers than Vidro??
How is Vidro > Langerhans?
I guess I don’t see how picking up a struggling OF for nothing make one organization better than a team that took that same OF and traded him for a decent player…
If Vidro isn’t > than Langerhans than our biggest mistake was not trading for Langerhans when the Braves or the A’s made him available.
The money thing simply should not be considered unless you can make a strong case on how that money would have been spent better elsewhere…and I don’t anyone can do that…at least not on something that isn’t completely based on opinion
If you look only at the near-term.
I just think it’s a lousy way to look at things if you’re looking two to three years down the line as well.
If Vidro had a 5 year contract then it should be accounted. But it is my understanding that it is a two year contract…that isn’t all that big of a deal for a guy who just got traded for basically nothing.
The money doesn’t even have to go towards another MLB Free Agent. More scouting, bigger plays in the foreign markets, upgraded equipment and facilities, improved marketing, rolled into savings for later signings (with interest), CHEAPER TICKET PRICES, and so on…
Comment number 148 should be elevated to the status of “guest post.” Great work, man!
It’s already been explained that Langerhans isn’t nothing. See Dave’s original post and comment 6.
You’re under by one (or at least there is an obligation for the team in 2009).
And even next year, the difference between 6M and 500K might be significant.
The Mariners are 8th in the AL in DH OPS (.748). A league-average league-average DH in the AL would be at .819 (which reflects the fact that better hitters who have crappy gloves end up at DH). (If you adjust for Safeco the park-adjusted “average” DH probably goes down to .800 or so.)
So, the Mariners are paying 6 million for a guy who is a below-average hitter for his “position”, who also can’t play the field. Oh, and he’s 32 and has an extensive injury history, and his performance declined year-over-year from 2004 to 2006- and there’s a good argument to be made his CURRENT performance is unststainable, since he’s showing no power and at some point, pitchers are going to notice he only has power when you make a mistake over the plate at 87 MPH. Plus he’s under contract for at least another year.
And people are seriously asking why Vidro for Snelling and Fruto was a bad deal? Simply put, it’s not that HARD to find fill in bad to mediocre hitters to plug in at DH for nothing- Bucky Jacobsen, Roberto Petagine types are floating around the minor leagues and waiver wire all the time, and they cost the MLB minium or not much more. Why would you give up prospects and millions in cash for bad hitters?
From Baker’s blog. I agree.
I like Geoff, but he’s wrong on Vidro.
Well, I like you Dave but I think you’re wrong about Vidro.
So there.
Small difference – one of us has an extensive track record of analysis of Vidro’s abilities based on fact and logic. The other one has a gut feeling that Vidro’s going to be good.
“Steady” is code for a small but consistent level of production: accurate enough, and not what you need from a DH.
Unfortunately, Vidro’s apparent steadiness is built on a precarious foundation: singles. If he hasn’t added power or walks by June, I’ll wager his average will have dropped fifty points.
He’s hitting over .300. That’s a fact, not a gut feeling.
He has a .750 OPS as a DH. It’s an Alex Sanchez type .300 batting average.
He’s slugging under .400. That’s a fact, not a gut feeling.
And his lack of power is a big source of the concern about him. That, too, is a fact, not a feeling.
So where is it written that a DH has to hit for power?
Snelling has a higher OBP than Vidro — this year.
Snelling also had a higher OBP than Vidro is 2006.
And in 2005.
Where is it written that a DH has to hit?
Um, sorry, but that’s not a very good argument. If all a player has to do is hit, then he better AT LEAST be league average in most phases of the hitting. Being average in OBP, but below average in slugging means he’s not doing his job.
So where is it written that a DH has to hit for power?
I didn’t realize that needed to be written. Other things that I didn’t realize needed to be written:
Pitchers should throw strikes.
Adrian Beltre shouldn’t swing at the low and away slider.
Julio Mateo is not the guy you want when you need a ground ball.
It’s a good question, why does a DH have to hit for Power? I don’t know the answer, but most hitters relegated to hitting just singles are either better base runners, or better defenders. I’m trying to think of high average, low slugging guy that isn’t one or the other.
DH is an opportunity to put a player in the box who has no business playing the field. It might as well be a hulking brute with the ability to hit the ball outta the park.
Vidro has no business playing the field, yes, but has any other team gotten an NL 2nd basemen to DH? It’s just absurd.
boy, comparing the fulltime DH numbers across the league is sad
theoretically, on a team where you get your power numbers from other positions, your DH would not have to hit for power. Unfortunately, on the Mariners, they aren’t getting compensatory power numbers elsewhere.
It’s a good question, why does a DH have to hit for Power?
Because there are so only so many ways you can help a team win a game. As a DH, you have no defensive value, and you’re probably playing there because you’re physically unable to play the field, meaning you’re probably also painfully slow. So we can pretty much cross defense and baserunning off the list from the start.
So, that leaves hitting. You have to derive 100% of your value from your ability to hit the baseball. Power is a little less than half the value of hitting, so if you can’t do that either, you’re not left with much.
If the other contending teams are going to war with Jason Giambi, David Ortiz, Frank Thomas, Travis Hafner, and Jim Thome as their DH, and you decide to punt power hitting at the position, you’ve basically given your opponents a strong competitive advantage. For no reason. It’s not exactly hard to find a big lumbering stiff who can whack the ball over the fence. The M’s have one sitting on their bench.
well, from a strategic viewpoint, what do other teams put there? Folks who are hitters. They’re generally folks who are at least league average OBP and slugging. Now, granted, the Mariners improved themselves with someone who’s below average in slugging…but don’t you think you want to have something BETTER than league average in that slot?
So where is it written that a DH has to hit for power?
Nowhere, but if your isolated power is in the Willie Bloomquist range (under .100- Vidro’s at .86, Willie’s career is at .072), you need to be a .330 hitter to be a decent hitter at DH.
If you think Jose Vidro is going to turn into an underpowered version of Tony Gwynn (career ISO: .121) or Wade Boggs (.115), when he’s never hit like that before, THEN you could justify him at DH. For reference, Vidro’s career batting average is .301, and his highest EVER batting average is .330… which is about what Wade Boggs hit for his career (.328, and still BELOW Gywnn’s career BA (.338).
So… Vidro? Still sucks as a DH. Any questions?
So the DH should look and hit like Bucky Jacobsen rather than Edgar Martinez?
JMHawkins’ post is one of the best non-author posts I’ve seen here in a good long while.
There is almost no good argument to be made to give up ANY talent to get ANY DH, due to the fact that there is so much freely available talent out there that can do the job at an acceptable level.
There may be a couple of DHs in the league that you could make an argument about giving up talent in order to get them (Ortiz maybe?) but in general it’s a great place to get good use out of free or cheap talent.
Smart teams recognize this, stupid teams don’t. And right now, the M’s are a stupid team. That is the gist of this post, and about the last five posts as well. The current leadership of this team does not understand talent evaluation or opportunity costs, and they’re losing consistently to a team with a much smaller payroll that understands both of those things.
Jose Vidro currently ranks 149th in baseball in Value Over Replacement Player. And that’s a ranking that doesn’t penalize him for not playing defense. That ranks him behind a pinch hitter (Olmedo Saenz), Termel Sledge, Brad Ausmus, Julio Lugo, Ray Durham, and three pitchers.
And this is with Vidro hitting better than expected.
So the DH should look and hit like Bucky Jacobsen rather than Edgar Martinez?
Edgar Martinez’s career slugging percentage was .515. His career ISO was .203. His career OBP was .418.
Vidro is more like Pete O’Brien than Edgar Martinez.
Are you suggesting that Edgar Martinez didn’t hit for power???
boy, comparing the fulltime DH numbers across the league is sad
I’m quite confused by this. I was always under the impression that every AAA team had “hulking brute” who doesn’t play the field but could go for 260/340/450. There must be a lot of clueless teams, I guess.
182, if that’s some convoluted way of saying Edgar didn’t hit for power, that’s crazy, he slugged .515. Anyway, Edger was sort of like those hobbled mashers Dave was discribing. If Bucky Jacobsen was healthy and an elite hitter, than he’d be in that group too. I’m spinning my head to try to understand your point.
So the DH should look and hit like Bucky Jacobsen rather than Edgar Martinez?
Edgar’s career SLG: .515
Bucky’s: .500
(A)bort, (R)etry, (F)ail?
Sorry to disagree Dave, but Hargrove only had 80 career HRs. He couldn’t exactly whack the ball over the fench when he was playing, so I doubt he could do it now that…
Oh.
You were talking about Broussard. Sorry.
My point is Vidro is doing exactly what the Ms were hoping he would do. Getting hits, setting the table, keeping innings alive. The power is supposed to come from Guillen, Sexson, Beltre, Ibanez and Johjima.
(F)lail is more like it.
Guy, you really need to slow down and think about it carefully. Right now, you’re just digging yourself in deeper and deeper.
My point is Vidro is doing exactly what the Ms were hoping he would do.
That the M’s are idiots does not make Vidro good.
And everyone elese’s point is that this is a very stupid thing to hope for on the part of the Mariners.
And given that EVERYONE is piling on…you may want to rethink your position.
The point of this post is that he is doing that worse than Snelling … for 20 TIMES higher salary.
And the M’s think that is good.
Maybe the Mariners aren’t hoping for the right things. Sexson is giving them exactly the HR and RBI’s they craved. If they were hoping for what should be coveted in a DH, they should be disappointed.
I’m going with
Auburn, no one is saying that it should be an either or; you’re missing the entire point of the conversation. In an environment where there’s a fixed amount of assets (payroll and players with which to spend the payroll on), smart teams use every dollar to create value.
In this specific case, Snelling was at 300k and is providing the same value as someone making 6million. That 5.7M you could spend elsewhere to improve your team more. The fact that the Mariners are so myopic in their views about acquiring “names” is the problem.
AuburnM…you’re secretly Bill Bavasi mom aren’t you?
That’s got to be the only explanation.
grrr, tags not working on ? meant to be I’m going with (F)ail
Sorry…typing too fast: Bill Bavasi’s mom
#194
I started this by pointing out that I was simply agreeing with Geoff Baker. Take a look at #163
bah, i give up trying to post a link
http://files.samhart.net/humor/fail.jpg
I’m quite confused by this. I was always under the impression that every AAA team had “hulking brute†who doesn’t play the field but could go for 260/340/450. There must be a lot of clueless teams, I guess.
Well, let’s see. The teams worse than the Mariners in DH OPS are:
KC: crappy team for a long time, using craptastic overpaid veteran Mike Sweeney as their DH
Detroit: traded for 38 year old higly paid veteran Gary Sheffield to DH for them
Minnesota: going on two years of crappy DH, as their DH perf last year was WORSE than Seattle’s
Oakland: many, many injury problems that are totally decimating their lineup
Baltimore: crappy team for a long time, benched Kevin Millar so they can play Aubrey Huff and Jay Gibbons
Angels: using Shea friggin’ Hillebrand as their DH- so basically, he’s THEIR version of Vidro
So, basically the teams that are worse than us are also playing bad, old and overpaid veterans at DH, or have bigtime injury problems.
This is an argument for Bavasi being astute exactly how?
And we’re continually pointing out that this was not a good defense or justification. there are better ways to skin the cat. (And, of course, some experts may just be wrong)
You know, you’re not defending your point that well; that suggests you may want to rethink them a bit. And maybe….you may find that you don’t understand it as well as you think you do?
203: No defending of Bavasi coming from me. Sorry, that came across as sarcastic, but I was being sincere. My point/question was that there seems to be a lot of teams, including the M’s, who don’t understand that DH’s are so easy to come by cheap. We aren’t the only ones who overvalue experience.
I take offense to Baker’s statement about Snelling being jettisoned by the worsed team in baseball being a knock on him. The Devil Rays are also one of the worst teams, but they have a great outfield and would get rid of the majority of OFers in baseball in favor of what they’ve got. That the Nats didn’t get any thing for him is an indightment of their stupidity and Beane’s cold heart, not Doyle’s ability.
The arrogance factor is really very high here. Quite amusing.
205:
OK, that makes sense, and yeah, being in company with Baltimore and KC should make you go “hmmmm”.
And to further compound this:
Vidro’s OBP: .357
Composite AL DH OBP: .366
The skill that Baker is citing as being why Vidro is “doing his job” isn’t even hitting the composite mark for AL DHs.
Let’s toss in this, too
Vidro:
.315/.357/.391
MLB #3 hitters:
.281/.365/.453
So, is he doing his job as a 3 hitter, too?
Getting hits, setting the table, keeping innings alive.
No, actually, he’s not, since he’s actually below-average for OBP at his position in the lineup and in the “field”, despite the .315 average.
But thanks for playing.
Vidro’s OBP: .357
Composite AL DH OBP: .366
Injury-plagued, no-longer-anything-more-than-role-player Snelling’s OBP: .361
Im still not understanding why getting a decent/average player for a player that has been apparently been deemed not good enough to be on the worst team in the MLB and even here has now been downgraded to a guy who could hit in spurts and someone who would not make the difference between the As and the Ms over the next three years.
Does the Vidro that is currently playing for the Ms make them better or worse at this point?? If he makes them better than how is it a bad trade?
Again, the money argument is much smaller than you are making it out to be. He makes 6% of the teams overall payroll…if Billy Beane found a guy doing what he does for $2 million you would say he was taking a great flier…obviously I don’t think you will agree with me. Many people on here desperately want this trade to backfire because of their amazing devotion to Snelling…
I will admit that I wasn’t happy about the trade, but that was because I thought Snelling would actually perform. Until he starts performing this trade was not a bad trade and you have to give credit to the Mariners for figuring out that he wasn’t going to perform in enough time to get a player who could at least be productive instead of a player like Langerhans…and like I said in an earlier post. If you think that Langerhans is better than Vidro, then the true disappointment in the organization should be for not getting ahold of Langerhans…not for trading a guy who apparently isn’t a big league player.
210: So, it is smart to take the OBP of a player who only had 49ABs in a weaker league and translate them to our team and say he could’ve been a DH. That doesn’t seem to make much sense.
212:
Snellings numbers in 96 AB for us last year:
.250/.360/.427
Many people on here desperately want this trade to backfire because of their amazing devotion to Snelling…
I don’t believe it is a devotion to Snelling (per se).
I believe it is a devotion to intelligence. I’d love Vidro to be a success. It is just probabilistically less likely that he will be so over the course of this season than that Snelling will be.
I’d love all of Bavasi’s trades and signings to be successful. Intelligently looking at what he has done, however, clearly shows they are for the most part idiotic.
212: No, but it is smart to use the tools we have at hand to understand that we can project Snelling’s numbers in both the minors and majors out to what his likely performance will be, and that we can do the same for Vidro, and find that, factoring in age and historical evidence, they’re likely to have similar production this year (for a considerable chunk of salary difference) with Snelling out-performing Vidro going beyond this year.
I just want to mention that Vidro’s salary + Sexson’s salary ~= Snelling’s salary + Manny Ramirez’s salary.
And that’s why we like Snelling. More Snellings on a team, providing effective play for league minimum or near it is more truly elite talents signed as free agents.
Not really.
It’s really not hard to knock down really stupid arguments. Comparing Edgar Martinez to Bucky Jacobsen was really stupid. Takes no arrogance to show that it was stupid.
I really get the feeling that AuburnM is one of those people for whom batting average is the first and greatest thing they look for in a hitter, and the Edgar vs. Bucky comparison came out ’cause he thinks of Edgar as ‘that guy with the 330 BA’ and Bucky as ‘that big slugger with a 275 BA’. The fact that Edgar was a monster OBP machine with good power just gets overlooked, where Bucky’s power is noticed ’cause he’s got no BA to notice.
Also, AuburnM, when you say stupid things, people respond as if you said something stupid. I suggest that statements of the form, ‘So where is it written that a DH has to hit for power?’ aren’t helping your cause.
Ack, I did that wrong! I never get those darn tags right.
My point still remains!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/04/AS.TMP
They just picked up Cust, and seem to like him at DH.
This has been an amazing thread. I’d just like to say thanks to all those involved for making my night a lot less boring.
Who knew it would be so fun to watch people try to drive a square peg (reason) into a round hole (AuburnM’s head).
From Washington’s perspective (courtesy Barry Svrluga’s Nationals Blog at The Washington Post
Referencing that last paragraph in #223 above, I don’t suppose it’s a very good sign if the guy who wrote Baseball Prospectus’ “Hit List” refers to Doyle as “Crash Snelling”, is it?
(scroll down to #17 on the list)