Indians get smarter
Dave · May 4, 2007 at 10:21 am · Filed Under Mariners
The Cleveland Indians, the team I’ve often described as the best run franchise in baseball, today announced the hiring Keith Woolner away from Baseball Prospectus to manage their statistical research and analysis department. Keith’s a smart guy, and was always very helpful to me, so I’m happy for him. He’s joining a first rate organization.
What does this mean for Mariner fans? Maybe nothing… or perhaps, the Indians are simply preparing themselves for life after Chris Antonetti, who essentially built the department that Woolner will now oversee.
Some team will get to see Antonetti in ’08 become a reality. Here’s to hoping it’s the Mariners.
Dave, I’ve seen you often refer to the Indians as the best run organization in baseball. Can you elaborate on why? Their pay roles have generally been in the middle of the pack and they haven’t taken their division since 2001.
Well, their payrolls since 2002 have been in the bottom third it looks. 2000/2001 were pretty high.
Congrats to Keith are definitely in order.
Dave, while I agree with you that Antonetti would be a really interesting choice for GM, do you see any chance whatsoever that the organization is willing to think outside the box and consider him?
I’d like to think and hope so, but… this sure looks like a very conservative, very “Good Baseball Guy” good ol’ boys group.
No kidding. That’s why I think a Kim Ng would be rejected out of hand (unless someone convinced them that this particular Kim was a boy)(or that it was an Asian style name).
Dave, I’ve seen you often refer to the Indians as the best run organization in baseball. Can you elaborate on why?
There isn’t anything they don’t do well. They succeed at every aspect of running a baseball franchise.
They’ve built a cohesive unit from A-ball all the way to the majors. The coaches, scouts, and players are all on the same page at every stop along the way. The coaches have their own styles, but their philosophies are the same, and players receive a consistent message from the day they become a Cleveland Indian until they leave.
They understand how to evaluate major league talent, putting an emphasis on things that matter (scoring and preventing runs) and dealing with perceived weaknesses that aren’t as important (Victor Martinez’s arm strength behind the plate, for instance).
They handle market dynamics very well, picking up guys like Kevin Millwood on a one year deal when he was undervalued because of a superficially high ERA.
They allocate a huge amount of money towards scouting and player development, understanding that their competitive advantage is in developing talent from within and creating valuable players who can contribute in their pre-arbitration days.
They have a front office of creative people who complement each other’s strength. Chris Antonetti and Neil Huntington, as the two main assistants to Mark Shapiro, come from completely different backgrounds and have different perspectives on the game. They work well together, respect each other, and provide unique insights from both the subjective and objective analysis camps.
They hire smart people and give them room to do things that will improve the franchise. Matt Tagliaferri was basically handed the keys to their video scouting department and was able to turn it into DiamondView, one of the most impressive and useful database programs you’d ever hope to see.
They’ve created a breeding ground of highly competent, well-skilled executives who now populate major league baseball. The Tribe’s internship alumni list reads like an elite list of the best minds in baseball.
You name it, they do it well. Despite moderate financial resources, they’ve clearly established themselves as the dominant franchise in the A.L. central for the next five years. They’ve become a well oiled machine that has few weaknesses. They just run their organization better than everyone else.
5.
Um… “Ng” is an Asian name. Vietnamese.
Dave, while I agree with you that Antonetti would be a really interesting choice for GM, do you see any chance whatsoever that the organization is willing to think outside the box and consider him?
Antonetti is pretty widely accepted as the next young “boy genius” GM in baseball. It’s not really thinking out of the box – he’s on everyone’s radar now. The Royals and Mets both wanted him for their open positions, but he’s waiting for the right opportunity.
And it’s amazing how quickly a franchise can turn around when it gets tired of losing. The Devil Rays went from oldest-of-the-old-school Chuck LaMar to Andrew Friedman. The Diamondbacks went from Joe Garagiola to Josh Byrnes. The Blue Jays went from Gord Ash to J.P. Ricciardi. None of these organizations were cutting edge rebels – they just wanted a new direction and were impressed by a highly qualified candidate.
You name it, they do it well.
Some in Cleveland would argue that “Selecting a Manager” should be an exception to that rule.
You name it, they do it well. Despite moderate financial resources, they’ve clearly established themselves as the dominant franchise in the A.L. central for the next five years.
Then why haven’t they won? What puts them ahead of Oakland on your list, for example?
They look like they’ll be consistently good over the coming years, but given the talent in Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago, I hardly think any franchise can make that optimistic a prediction.
So, what you’re saying, then, is that Rachel Phelps will never be able to move the team to Miami…
Some in Cleveland would argue that “Selecting a Manager†should be an exception to that rule.
There are less than a half dozen managers that matter in baseball. At this point, all an organization really should hope for when hiring someone is “not a disaster”. Eric Wedge is not a disaster.
Then why haven’t they won? What puts them ahead of Oakland on your list, for example?
93-69 in 2005, and a +98 run differential last year. They lost a remarkable amount of one run games and ran one of the biggest differences between their actual W/L and their pythagorean W/L in history. Not surprisingly, they’re winning again this year.
That’s a three year run of good baseball teams built around young players with moderate payrolls. Besides Tampa Bay, there’s not another organization in baseball poised for a more impressive run the next five years.
The Indians have laid the foundation for a long period of winning. We can identify that kind of success before it translates into World Series titles.
(holding my lucky rabbits foot, crossing my fingers, wearing my lucky jersey…) Oh please oh pleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleeeaassee be the Mariners!
Of course, at this point, the Mariners have set themselves up to look like huge heros if they do ANYTHING to change directions this year!
(cough) ummm…heroes (must be those darn tags again!!)
I really think we will end up with someone like Gord Ash, I’d of course prefer Antonetti (or someone like him) but it is just a feeling I have.
Dave, thanks for answering my question with so much depth.
hmm. wonder if we can find who has the Yankee Pitching Staff Voodoo Doll, and get them working on mesmerizing the Mariner brass ….
If a prospective GM can convince ownership that (a) the team can win (b) within a budget, that should take priority over whether the GM is an old school baseball guy. The ownership group primarily comes from a technology background, so despite their social and fiscal conservatism, it is not like they are opposed to new ideas (and really, things like emphasizing statistical analysis is not exactly cutting edge anymore). Sure, Armstrong would prefer somebody with whom he would feel comfortable swapping good old days stories over chunks of red meat at the Met, but given the state of the franchise, Armstrong’s days (at least in his current capacity) might be numbered.
Dave…who would you consider top 5 well-run organizations over the past 5-10 years? Just off the top of my head…
Cleveland
Oakland
Minnesota
Atlanta
St. Louis? Boston?
(I hate to put Boston or NYY in there just becuase they can increase spending to compensate for their mistakes!)
18. Here’s to hoping.
Maybe this season is like that game a few years back where Piniella let Jose Mesa just pitch and suck and pitch and suck until it was absolutely clear to everyone (including Mesa) that he was finished. Maybe the ownership group is letting Lincoln and Armstrong soak in their own failure for one more year to make it crystal clear why the organization needs to go in a radically different direction.
Holy smokes, Gord Ash would be a disaster.
Here’s a question for you, Dave. If you had to give an elevator speech to Ned Antonetti about why Seattle is “the right opportunity,” what would you tell him?
Antonetti 08!, Antonetti 08!
Dave…who would you consider top 5 well-run organizations over the past 5-10 years? Just off the top of my head…
Atlanta, Minnesota, and Oakland are the three that aren’t even arguable. They’re a clear step ahead of the pack in what they’ve done the last decade. After that, you can make a good case for Cleveland, St. Louis, Houston, Anaheim, Boston, or the Mets. But those guys are all staring into the distance trying to glimpse the accomplishments of the Braves, Twins, and A’s.
Here’s a question for you, Dave. If you had to give an elevator speech to Ned Antonetti about why Seattle is “the right opportunity,†what would you tell him?
“Hey Ned – if you see Chris, tell him I’m looking for him.”
Now, if I was in the elevator with Chris Antonetti, I’d probably just hand him a post-card of Mt. Rainier on a July day, then a Felix Hernandez baseball card, and then the PFD report that shows the Mariners pulling in $28 million in profits last year despite their third straight last place finish.
I think Seattle is a pretty easy sell.
1) We are in a division that isn’t that good. None of the other teams in the division are going to be world beaters over the next few years.
2) We actually have a fairly good core of young talent (Lopez, Yuni, Felix) to build around. Plus our farm system has some people who should help fairly soon.
3) You aren’t going to be hampered by a really low payroll. You have the financial ability to spend some money here.
4) The Seattle press is easy to deal with. You don’t have the kind of venom that exists in places like Boston, NY, and LA.
5) Seattle is a great place to live for a guy like you. It has a culture that you are going to enjoy.
6) The most rabid Mariner fans already love you.
Does the “hire a manager” exception apply to Minnesota? I can accept that there are very few managers who make a big difference, but it seems to me that Gardenhire challenges Hargrove for worst game manager in baseball right now.
#24…Don’t forget
7. If you get a little behind on your player research for a trade, you can log onto USSMariner.com and pose a few intelligent questions about players and BAM…your work is done!!!
Gardenhire reminds me a lot of Dusty Baker, just without the crazy arm-shredding of his pitching staff. Both are guys who won in spite of their lack of understanding of in-game strategies, and both did well in the motivating players category. I wouldn’t want either managing the Mariners.
Any possibility that Joe Girardi takes over as manager at some point in the future? I think he would help develop our young guys the right way and keep a veteran like Ichiro happy with the discipline he enforces.
I was not impressed by Girardi last year. He showed a complete inability to work within any kind of organizational structure, and seemed a lot more interested in his own greatness than in helping the Marlins win.
He did want them to win, just doing it his way. It seemed to work. Not conforming the Marlins way of business can be good and bad. Another one I wouldn’t mind would be Bobby Valentine.
Florida’s 2006 winning percentage with Girardi: .481
Florida’s 2007 winning percentage without Girardi: .481
They haven’t exactly collapsed in his absence.
What are some choices for a new manager be it mid season or at the end of this year?
A manager only has to do three things:
1) Buy into the organizational philosophy. You can’t have a manager consistently doing his own thing and undermining the rest of the org.
2) Not alienate players. This isn’t terribly important in the short term, but it does help if the players don’t hate you. Buck Showalter is someone who I think is a good manager but players seem to hate. Which is why he always has a short shelf life with a team.
3) Don’t do anything stupid. There are very few decisions that a manger can make to greatly improve his chance of winning. There are many more he can make that really screw it up.
bhsmarine:
If we got a new manager at mid season he would already be in the organization and would definitely not be here next year.
Any manager next year is going to depend on who the new GM is.
I think the biggest thing a manager does is determine the teams approach to a game. Patience at the plate, base running (hit and runs, steals), putting players in a environment where the can succeed (club house and the field).
33: I’d add another item to your list: A manager must not go against conventional wisdom unless he can either charm the media or consistently win. Even the latter won’t help sometimes; see Larry Dierker (though I gather he couldn’t get his players to buy into his way of thinking, either).
Gardenhire reminds me a lot of Dusty Baker, just without the crazy arm-shredding of his pitching staff. Both are guys who won in spite of their lack of understanding of in-game strategies, and both did well in the motivating players category. I wouldn’t want either managing the Mariners.
Gardenhire’s pretty bad, but he has managed enough good bullpens that I think you have to consider that a strength. I wouldn’t recommend the Ron Gardenhire experience, but I think he still falls into the “not a disaster” category.
The same approach should be taught at all levels of the organization. You should then find a manager who either agrees with this approach or can adapt to it.
I’d like to think a big league staff could be a teaching staff. Amazingly, very little teaching happens at the big league level. In the case of Jeff Pentland, that can only be a good thing. That guy is a clueless hitting instructor.
I’d like to see more scientific-based skill development in big league organizations.
[Piniella]
We here are all hoping that Hargrove/Bavasi have seen their last Spring in Seattle. However, are we fairly certain its gonna happen? Or is this all just wishful thinking? Something very scary gnaws at my bones: the M’s might actually tally 83 wins, management will call it a ‘step forward’…then Billy and Mikey are both given extensions. /shudder
A big thumbs up to Cleveland’s ownership, as well. Granted, they don’t spend a ton of money on payroll, so they can afford to spread their resources around, but it seems clear that it allows Shapiro and Co. to do their job with relatively little interference.
I wonder how willing Nintendo and Lincoln would be to let Antonetti come in and take the wrecking ball to the organization’s current framework. If Antonetti were to consider Seattle, I am sure this would be at the top of his list of concerns.
That’s quite possible.
But in that particular scenario, Ichiro’s gone. He’s not going to tolerate that kind of mediocrity. I think he’d accept a non-division winning season if the team won 90 games. But not at 83 wins.
And if that’s the case, I’m not sure Bavasi WOULD be back…
I don’t think there is much chance at all of Ichiro coming back, short of an appearance in the WS. He knows exactly what this team has and does not have.
Is Keith Woolner an exception to the 3 ways to get into baseball theory? I’m guessing he might be Ivy League, but curious…
93MPHSlider.wow. –
From Wikipedia:
“Woolner holds a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics, Computer Science and Management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and a masters degree in Decision Analysis from Stanford University.”
So, while not Ivy League, that’s still very impressive.
Indeed!
Tim Lincecum is starting Sunday for the Giants. Brandon Morrow has done well in the bullpen, but what prompted the M’s to draft him over Lincecum? The only reasons as far as I can tell are that Lincecum is small and throws weird, while Morrow is big and throws normal. Given that Lincecum is better in almost every other regard (stuff, consistency, college production, durability, local guy) what were the M’s thinking?
I couldn’t believe it when they didn’t take Lincecum, and given the drubbing Tim gave the minors I would predict huge success for him. Morrow has come along fast, but is he going to start anytime soon?
Scouts believed Lincicum was an injury waiting to happen.
Of course that’s what they said about Pedro Martinez when the Dodgers traded him, and what the M’s said about Randy Johnson 10 years ago.
Wonder how both of those turned out …
Sorry, Lincecum.
Nuss,
I would say that Pedro Martinez is more the exception than the rule.
The scouts have also said that about a lot of pitchers who got injured.
Which is, I think the point. I believe that most pitchers with off-beat mechanics get injured (or, at least, much more than pitchers with standard mechanics). How risky do you want to be? Where do you draw the line?
Can your boy Woolner finally convince them to get rid of that awful Chief Wahoo?
re: 46 MIT is an Envy-League school.
The idea that Morrow isn’t a good pitcher is interesting (as compared to, say, Lincecum).
Faced with the choice of Lincecum or Morrow, who the Indians select???
I’d say they pick Morrow (as I would, with hindsight). Morrow has a big-league fastball, and the potential for a big-league splitter. Just because the M’s are wasting him in the bullpen doesn’t mean that Morrow is a bad pitcher. The guy has all the tools to be a stud.
In fact, with that fastball, and the splitter that he showed in spring training, I would like to know why his “stuff” is considered inferior to Miller’s or Lincecum’s? He throws harder, has just as good of movement, and the remaining variable is command. Which pitches to throw are controlled, especially with the young, by the catcher. It then becomes a matter of execution, and Morrow has learned to do that.
The Indians would’ve said “Screw Bud’s unwritten slot rules, we’re drafting Miller”
What exactly was the payback for Detroit drafting Miller? Has Selig been out side Comerica Park letting down their tyres or what? Seems like it would have been a price worth paying.
56 -
Wha? Lincecum throws at least as hard, and his stuff is simply better than morrow’s. He’s got two plus offspeed pitches, and Morrow is still working on getting his rounded into shape. Lincecum hit 99mph w/his fastball at Cheney in April, and has laid the PCL to waste. He’s an elite MLB pitcher *right now*.
Look, Morrow’s done very well, and that’s great. But he does not have the pure stuff of Lincecum. You can make the case that Morrow may be more durable, but I’m not convinced of that either. With Prior under the knife, I’m tempted to say we just don’t know very much about mechanics and how they promote/inhibit injuries.
Dave,
Any idea what the Indians have in mind for Asdrubal Cabrera? I see he’s sporting a nice 900+ OPS in Akron. Is Peralta someone they’re really trying to build around, or is he a desirable commodity they can spin off for something else?
Seems like their core is really Sizemore/Hafner/Martinez, with Sowers and Miller as the anchors of the staff (with Lofgren in the mix, I guess, as well as Lee). But who knows, maybe they like Peralta’s defense more than most. I can see a case either way.
MIT’s a better degree than anything in the Ivy League.
In fact, with that fastball, and the splitter that he showed in spring training, I would like to know why his “stuff†is considered inferior to Miller’s or Lincecum’s? He throws harder, has just as good of movement, and the remaining variable is command. Which pitches to throw are controlled, especially with the young, by the catcher. It then becomes a matter of execution, and Morrow has learned to do that.
Miller has a dominant 88-93 MPH two-seam fastball that makes him a groundball machine. He’s currently running a 68% GB rate in the FSL after being a dominant groundball force in college. His slider is a true outpitch, breaking left-to-right and is murder on LH hitters. He also features a four seam fastball that can get up to 96 with ease, and can command all those pitches at in any count.
Lincecum throws a legit 96-98 as a starter, plus a true 12-6 hammer curve.
Morrow’s just not in either guy’s class. His fastball sits at 97 coming out of the bullpen, and his secondary pitches need a lot of work. The fact that people can’t tell if his second pitch is a slider or a splitter shows just how far he has to go with it.
It’s no insult to say that a pitcher doesn’t have Andrew Miller or Tim Lincecum’s stuff – there aren’t many that do. But Morrow’s arsenal doesn’t hold a candle to either one.
Dave, Derek, whomever… What earthly reason do you have to believe that the Mariners would ever hire a guy like Antonetti? They seem to be a bunch that respects tradition and conventional wisdom more than almost anything else. They have shown almost no ability to adapt. Why now? Why ever?
Any idea what the Indians have in mind for Asdrubal Cabrera?
Barring a big step forward in the power department, they see him as a utility infielder and not an everyday player. They like Peralta’s defense more than I do, but I think they’d be open to moving him to third base if they could obtain a top flight shortstop. Marte’s regressing as a player, so that spot isn’t as blocked as it appeared. I wouldn’t be shocked if Peralta moved to 3B in a year or two, but it probably wouldn’t be to open up a spot for Asdrubal Cabrera.
That’s kind of a bold statement.
Moving on, Dave, do you have any interest in pursuing a job like the one Keith Woolner got? Have you thought about trying to parlay your work into some kind of a front office gig?
Dave, Derek, whomever… What earthly reason do you have to believe that the Mariners would ever hire a guy like Antonetti? They seem to be a bunch that respects tradition and conventional wisdom more than almost anything else. They have shown almost no ability to adapt. Why now? Why ever?
The M’s want to win. The organizations that are winning are the ones that are evolving with the times. You could have made that same comment about Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Arizona just a few years ago, and after getting tired of losing, they all changed course and handed their organization over to a non-traditional GM.
I’m not saying the M’s certainly will, but I think its definitely possible.
As someone who has been connected with BP, Dave, I was curious what your take on Rany Jazayerli is. I always enjoy his writing and wondered if you thought he was an astute observer.
Well, yeah, but almost true. They’re more skew than anything else–don’t think the Ivys really don’t look down their noses at MIT or Caltech.
(Stanford, on the other hand…..)
At some point, the admin crew is going to get tired of hitting themselves in the head with antiquated notions of baseball. They’re not going to survive, baseball-wise, without getting SOME sense of modern baseball.
But whether they stop hitting THIS year, is another question. May have to wait until more of the ownership group drops out, or Armstrong really puts his foot in it…
Moving on, Dave, do you have any interest in pursuing a job like the one Keith Woolner got? Have you thought about trying to parlay your work into some kind of a front office gig?
I don’t have anything like the skills necessary to do what Keith does. When it comes to statistical analysis and research, he’s Albert Pujols and I’m David Eckstein. I’m not qualified for that position, and I’d be in over my head trying to do the kinds of projects that guys like Woolner can pull off with ease.
If the M’s wanted to pay me to sit in an office and explain why Jose Vidro sucks, I’m not saying I’d say no, but there are far, far more qualified people walking around for that kind of job than me.
he’s Albert Pujols and I’m David Eckstein
So he’s a juice-enhanced one dimensional player and you’re the World Series MVP?
I kid, I kid!
See, and this is how I feel about having Dave ahead of me on the organizational-usefulness depth charts. I guess that means I’m two levels of far, far down.
Wooo! Kansas City, here I come!
At least your in the show Derek, I might be able to get a job helping out a T-Ball team.
I help out at T-Ball too. My job is to keep track of the pitch count.
DMZ, if a club was really astute they would hire you as a special consultant on rule bending. Both affirmative and detecting said bending by the opponent.
29: I’m not saying Girardi was a great manager, or that you’re wrong, but how can you know enough about the situation to say something like that? What could he have possibly done in his first as a manager to suggest he can’t work in any kind of organizational structure? How many organizational structures could he possibly have been exposed to? Also, how do you quantify “interested in his own greatness”? How does a manager even display that? Is it something he said to the press? I didn’t follow the story too closely, but your claims seem a little too harsh and presumptuous.
Those big league managers have it easy. Us tee ball coaches have to remind our players where first base is every other play.
Dave, if you are interested in developing the technical skills to go along with your baseball hobby, check out this website. The online courses are taught by the same people that write the books for college statistical courses. It is top notch stuff.
Another reason the Seattle GM job should attract the best candidates is that the M’s have substantial long-term payroll flexibility. After the 2008 season (which would be the new GM’s first in Seattle), the big contracts start expiring (Sexson, Vidro if option does not vest, Ibanez, Johjima), with the remaining expiring after the 2009 season (Beltre, Washburn, Batista, Putz). The only two players signed beyond 2009 are Betancourt and Lopez. The GM can sign Felix to a long-term deal and have plenty of money leftover to surround him with talent.
PS I fully endorse the hiring of Dave or DMZ as Mariners Vice-President of Common Sense.
Game Thread? And, Snelling gets a start in LF for Oakland today. Go Doyle!
Anybody know the track record of BP guys with major league jobs? The only ones I know of who had staff positions rather than consulting gigs are Keith Law, who spent a few seasons under J.P. Ricciardi in Toronto, and James Click, who I believe still works for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
The other thing that managers have to do, and in my opinion possibly the most important (and also possibly the most difficult to measure) is deciding who makes the team and who doesn’t, deciding who is in the lineup and who is on the bench, and deciding who is in the rotation and who is in the bullpen.
Unless the manager really sucks at in game decisions (bunts, steals, infield in, pitchouts, stuff like that) the important decisions are all made before the game even starts.
Hm. Same thing goes for directors in theatres and film.
Nice point. I’ll have to share that reasoning with someone I know.