Indians get smarter
Dave · May 4, 2007 at 10:21 am · Filed Under Mariners
The Cleveland Indians, the team I’ve often described as the best run franchise in baseball, today announced the hiring Keith Woolner away from Baseball Prospectus to manage their statistical research and analysis department. Keith’s a smart guy, and was always very helpful to me, so I’m happy for him. He’s joining a first rate organization.
What does this mean for Mariner fans? Maybe nothing… or perhaps, the Indians are simply preparing themselves for life after Chris Antonetti, who essentially built the department that Woolner will now oversee.
Some team will get to see Antonetti in ’08 become a reality. Here’s to hoping it’s the Mariners.
Sorry, Lincecum.
Nuss,
I would say that Pedro Martinez is more the exception than the rule.
The scouts have also said that about a lot of pitchers who got injured.
Which is, I think the point. I believe that most pitchers with off-beat mechanics get injured (or, at least, much more than pitchers with standard mechanics). How risky do you want to be? Where do you draw the line?
Can your boy Woolner finally convince them to get rid of that awful Chief Wahoo?
re: 46 MIT is an Envy-League school.
The idea that Morrow isn’t a good pitcher is interesting (as compared to, say, Lincecum).
Faced with the choice of Lincecum or Morrow, who the Indians select???
I’d say they pick Morrow (as I would, with hindsight). Morrow has a big-league fastball, and the potential for a big-league splitter. Just because the M’s are wasting him in the bullpen doesn’t mean that Morrow is a bad pitcher. The guy has all the tools to be a stud.
In fact, with that fastball, and the splitter that he showed in spring training, I would like to know why his “stuff” is considered inferior to Miller’s or Lincecum’s? He throws harder, has just as good of movement, and the remaining variable is command. Which pitches to throw are controlled, especially with the young, by the catcher. It then becomes a matter of execution, and Morrow has learned to do that.
The Indians would’ve said “Screw Bud’s unwritten slot rules, we’re drafting Miller”
What exactly was the payback for Detroit drafting Miller? Has Selig been out side Comerica Park letting down their tyres or what? Seems like it would have been a price worth paying.
56 –
Wha? Lincecum throws at least as hard, and his stuff is simply better than morrow’s. He’s got two plus offspeed pitches, and Morrow is still working on getting his rounded into shape. Lincecum hit 99mph w/his fastball at Cheney in April, and has laid the PCL to waste. He’s an elite MLB pitcher *right now*.
Look, Morrow’s done very well, and that’s great. But he does not have the pure stuff of Lincecum. You can make the case that Morrow may be more durable, but I’m not convinced of that either. With Prior under the knife, I’m tempted to say we just don’t know very much about mechanics and how they promote/inhibit injuries.
Dave,
Any idea what the Indians have in mind for Asdrubal Cabrera? I see he’s sporting a nice 900+ OPS in Akron. Is Peralta someone they’re really trying to build around, or is he a desirable commodity they can spin off for something else?
Seems like their core is really Sizemore/Hafner/Martinez, with Sowers and Miller as the anchors of the staff (with Lofgren in the mix, I guess, as well as Lee). But who knows, maybe they like Peralta’s defense more than most. I can see a case either way.
MIT’s a better degree than anything in the Ivy League.
In fact, with that fastball, and the splitter that he showed in spring training, I would like to know why his “stuff†is considered inferior to Miller’s or Lincecum’s? He throws harder, has just as good of movement, and the remaining variable is command. Which pitches to throw are controlled, especially with the young, by the catcher. It then becomes a matter of execution, and Morrow has learned to do that.
Miller has a dominant 88-93 MPH two-seam fastball that makes him a groundball machine. He’s currently running a 68% GB rate in the FSL after being a dominant groundball force in college. His slider is a true outpitch, breaking left-to-right and is murder on LH hitters. He also features a four seam fastball that can get up to 96 with ease, and can command all those pitches at in any count.
Lincecum throws a legit 96-98 as a starter, plus a true 12-6 hammer curve.
Morrow’s just not in either guy’s class. His fastball sits at 97 coming out of the bullpen, and his secondary pitches need a lot of work. The fact that people can’t tell if his second pitch is a slider or a splitter shows just how far he has to go with it.
It’s no insult to say that a pitcher doesn’t have Andrew Miller or Tim Lincecum’s stuff – there aren’t many that do. But Morrow’s arsenal doesn’t hold a candle to either one.
Dave, Derek, whomever… What earthly reason do you have to believe that the Mariners would ever hire a guy like Antonetti? They seem to be a bunch that respects tradition and conventional wisdom more than almost anything else. They have shown almost no ability to adapt. Why now? Why ever?
Any idea what the Indians have in mind for Asdrubal Cabrera?
Barring a big step forward in the power department, they see him as a utility infielder and not an everyday player. They like Peralta’s defense more than I do, but I think they’d be open to moving him to third base if they could obtain a top flight shortstop. Marte’s regressing as a player, so that spot isn’t as blocked as it appeared. I wouldn’t be shocked if Peralta moved to 3B in a year or two, but it probably wouldn’t be to open up a spot for Asdrubal Cabrera.
That’s kind of a bold statement.
Moving on, Dave, do you have any interest in pursuing a job like the one Keith Woolner got? Have you thought about trying to parlay your work into some kind of a front office gig?
Dave, Derek, whomever… What earthly reason do you have to believe that the Mariners would ever hire a guy like Antonetti? They seem to be a bunch that respects tradition and conventional wisdom more than almost anything else. They have shown almost no ability to adapt. Why now? Why ever?
The M’s want to win. The organizations that are winning are the ones that are evolving with the times. You could have made that same comment about Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Arizona just a few years ago, and after getting tired of losing, they all changed course and handed their organization over to a non-traditional GM.
I’m not saying the M’s certainly will, but I think its definitely possible.
As someone who has been connected with BP, Dave, I was curious what your take on Rany Jazayerli is. I always enjoy his writing and wondered if you thought he was an astute observer.
Well, yeah, but almost true. They’re more skew than anything else–don’t think the Ivys really don’t look down their noses at MIT or Caltech.
(Stanford, on the other hand…..)
At some point, the admin crew is going to get tired of hitting themselves in the head with antiquated notions of baseball. They’re not going to survive, baseball-wise, without getting SOME sense of modern baseball.
But whether they stop hitting THIS year, is another question. May have to wait until more of the ownership group drops out, or Armstrong really puts his foot in it…
Moving on, Dave, do you have any interest in pursuing a job like the one Keith Woolner got? Have you thought about trying to parlay your work into some kind of a front office gig?
I don’t have anything like the skills necessary to do what Keith does. When it comes to statistical analysis and research, he’s Albert Pujols and I’m David Eckstein. I’m not qualified for that position, and I’d be in over my head trying to do the kinds of projects that guys like Woolner can pull off with ease.
If the M’s wanted to pay me to sit in an office and explain why Jose Vidro sucks, I’m not saying I’d say no, but there are far, far more qualified people walking around for that kind of job than me.
he’s Albert Pujols and I’m David Eckstein
So he’s a juice-enhanced one dimensional player and you’re the World Series MVP?
I kid, I kid!
See, and this is how I feel about having Dave ahead of me on the organizational-usefulness depth charts. I guess that means I’m two levels of far, far down.
Wooo! Kansas City, here I come!
At least your in the show Derek, I might be able to get a job helping out a T-Ball team.
I help out at T-Ball too. My job is to keep track of the pitch count.
DMZ, if a club was really astute they would hire you as a special consultant on rule bending. Both affirmative and detecting said bending by the opponent.
29: I’m not saying Girardi was a great manager, or that you’re wrong, but how can you know enough about the situation to say something like that? What could he have possibly done in his first as a manager to suggest he can’t work in any kind of organizational structure? How many organizational structures could he possibly have been exposed to? Also, how do you quantify “interested in his own greatness”? How does a manager even display that? Is it something he said to the press? I didn’t follow the story too closely, but your claims seem a little too harsh and presumptuous.
Those big league managers have it easy. Us tee ball coaches have to remind our players where first base is every other play.
Dave, if you are interested in developing the technical skills to go along with your baseball hobby, check out this website. The online courses are taught by the same people that write the books for college statistical courses. It is top notch stuff.
Another reason the Seattle GM job should attract the best candidates is that the M’s have substantial long-term payroll flexibility. After the 2008 season (which would be the new GM’s first in Seattle), the big contracts start expiring (Sexson, Vidro if option does not vest, Ibanez, Johjima), with the remaining expiring after the 2009 season (Beltre, Washburn, Batista, Putz). The only two players signed beyond 2009 are Betancourt and Lopez. The GM can sign Felix to a long-term deal and have plenty of money leftover to surround him with talent.
PS I fully endorse the hiring of Dave or DMZ as Mariners Vice-President of Common Sense.
Game Thread? And, Snelling gets a start in LF for Oakland today. Go Doyle!
Anybody know the track record of BP guys with major league jobs? The only ones I know of who had staff positions rather than consulting gigs are Keith Law, who spent a few seasons under J.P. Ricciardi in Toronto, and James Click, who I believe still works for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
The other thing that managers have to do, and in my opinion possibly the most important (and also possibly the most difficult to measure) is deciding who makes the team and who doesn’t, deciding who is in the lineup and who is on the bench, and deciding who is in the rotation and who is in the bullpen.
Unless the manager really sucks at in game decisions (bunts, steals, infield in, pitchouts, stuff like that) the important decisions are all made before the game even starts.
Hm. Same thing goes for directors in theatres and film.
Nice point. I’ll have to share that reasoning with someone I know.