Line-up changes
So, Grover finally got around to adjusting the line-up. Vidro moves up to 2nd, Johjima goes to 3rd, Beltre to 7th, with the rest staying the same. Predictably, it didn’t matter much, as the team still couldn’t hit Matt DeSalvo. In general, batting orders are pretty overrated, and where a guy hits in the line-up isn’t as important as whether or not he should be in the line-up to begin with.
However, it’s one of those small things that can make a difference over the course of the year if the line-up is optimized correctly. For every spot in the batting order you move down, you lose approximately 18 at-bats a year. The #1 guy gets 18 more at-bats than the #2 guy, the #2 gets 18 more at-bats than the #3 guy, etc… So, by being aggressive about getting your best hitters into the top of your batting line-up, you can create some extra runs for your team by having good hitters get extra at-bats in lieu of your bad hitters.
Yesterday’s line-up, in that regard, isn’t much better than the standard line-up we’ve seen all year. Essentially, it gives Johjima at-bats in lieu of Beltre, which is a lateral move. Getting Vidro out of the #3 hole is a good start, but moving him up to #2 only serves to give him even more at-bats throughout the year, which isn’t really the goal the team should have in mind.
What would an optimal line-up with this roster look like? I’m glad you asked.
Vs LHP: Ichiro-Vidro-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Johjima-Ibanez-Lopez-Betancourt
Vs RHP: Ichiro-Ibanez-Beltre-Sexson-Guillen-Broussard-Johjima-Lopez-Betancourt
Ibanez’s power hasn’t turned the calendar to 2007 yet, but it’s still hard to argue that Jose Vidro is a better hitter against RHP than Ibanez is. Despite all the lauding for Vidro, Ibanez sees more pitches per plate appearance and has a recent history of higher walk rates, so he’s a good enough fit for the #2 slot on this offense. As an added benefit, managers who still don’t realize that Ichiro can beat the tar out of LHPs will be tempted to use their LH relievers to face Ichiro-Ibanez back to back later in games. Advantage, Ichiro.
Broussard is the only Mariner on the roster right now with any kind of significant LH power. The line-up needs a guy swinging from the left side in the middle of the order who can drive the ball, and he’s a better hitter than Vidro anyways.
And yes, I’m advocating leaving Sexson in the middle of the order. He’s not this bad, and I don’t believe there’s anything to moving a guy down in the order to “get him going”. Sexson’s a notorious second half hitter who improves dramatically as the weather gets warmer, and his low average simply isn’t sustainable given his other skills. He’ll end the year up near .240 to .250, and I don’t see any point in overreacting to his slow start by pretending that there’s a better guy on the roster to hit clean-up. It’s a line-up of flawed hitters, and in an ideal world, he wouldn’t have to hit clean-up, but on this roster, he does.
Now, of course, we won’t see this kind of dramatic L/R line-up changes from Grover, who is in love with doing the same thing every single day, and we won’t see more Broussard because Vidro’s getting .312. But if the M’s are serious about optimizing their offense to get as many runs out of this hacktastic group as they can, that’s my suggestion.
I agree that Broussard needs to play more as a semi-regular against RHP. I’d not only spell Vidro with him, but he should be taking some ABs away from Sexson and Guillen as well.
If Sexson is a warm weather hitter, or if he clearly does better as the season goes along, wouldn’t it be better if he only played part time early in the season and then full time later in the year?
I like the thought of batting Beltre third. He’s off to his best start as a Mariner (looking at OPS), and he’s only going to get better, I believe.
I disagree about Sexson. The numbers may say he’s going to rebound, but the eyes tell a different story. He simply cannot handle anything on the inside part of the plate. He’s moved away from the plate a bit the last couple of weeks, but that has left him even more vulnerable to breaking balls — even fastballs — on the outside corner. When a power hitter can’t handle cheese in his kitchen, he’s in trouble.
I’d institute a L/R platoon with Broussard at 1B now, and hope Sexson improves against LH pitching enough to convince someone to take him at the trade deadline, eating most of his contract, of course.
Once you leave Ichiro alone in the leadoff spot, it seems to me that Beltre and Ibanez are pretty clearly the best all around hitters and therefore should get the most ABs. After that, I think it becomes debatable—probably the most important thing is to keep the speedier guys together. I’m fine with Dave’s suggested lineups, and I assume the main point he’s making is that Vidro shouldn’t be batting second.
I disagree about Sexson. The numbers may say he’s going to rebound, but the eyes tell a different story. He simply cannot handle anything on the inside part of the plate.
There’s no reason to believe that his ability to get around on the inside fastball disappeared over the offseason, however. If it had, we’d see a drop in his power rates as well. Right now, he’s simply hitting the ball at people. It will change.
If you mean no reason other than what I see virtually every time he steps in the batter’s box, then I guess you’re right. Otherwise, no.
If you mean no reason other than what I see virtually every time he steps in the batter’s box, then I guess you’re right. Otherwise, no.
It’s called a slump. They happen.
Dave, to me it looks like Sexson’s got another problem to just hitting the ball at people – a spike in IFFB and a drop in HR/FLY. Otherwise his batting outcome numbers are virtually identical to last year’s. Do you think that’s anything to worry about? I’m leaning towards it being a product of the sample size, myself…
He’s not swinging the bat well and he’s getting under some pitches he should drive. But I’m not convinced either of those are signs of a drastic change in talent level.
Now, of course, we won’t see this kind of dramatic L/R line-up changes from Grover, who is in love with doing the same thing every single day . . .
Since we don’t have too many opportunities to discuss it during the season, who, in your view Dave, would have the guts to do what you suggest with the line-up? Just wondering. You think about those managers regarded as being good, and you still see a lot of “by the book” approaches to things. Plus I suppose I don’t even know if those guys are really good managers. Popular opinion seems less and less important the more time I stick around here.
Maybe your “trades that should happen tomorrow” post should including dealing Sexson to a warm-weather city, preferably in the National League.
At what point do the dollars, statistical probability, and calendar intersect to make him tradeable? Any time this year?
If he gets red-hot in May and June, brings his numbers back up, and the team simultaneously falls out of the race, I could see him being dealt in July. But it’s a longshot, because if he’s tearing the cover off the ball, this team is probably winning.
yeah, if you look at Sexson’s career numbers he’s a July-Sept monster — so, conveniently, he gets hot right after the trading deadline. If you were going to trade him when his stock was high, it would have been right after his blistering August and September last season. Of course, a smart manager in a pennant race would trade peanuts for him in July with the expectation he was going to get hot, and Bavasi being another kind of manager, might take that trade.
I was thinking Sexson was having a historically bad start this year — and he is, even for him, though this year Kornerko and Delgado are right there with him, and Ryan Howard isn’t much better — but actually he only has to hit ~.285 in the 500 or so ABs he has over the rest of the season to bring his average up to where you would expect. It’s hard to believe he fell off a cliff between October and April; and I can’t believe he starts every season hitting balls right at guys and then gets luckier as the weather gets warmer. I don’t know if it takes a while for him to get his eye back, or to get his swing co-ordinated again, or what, but given that this seems to be an annual occurance should he be working with a hitting coach all winter to try to stay in that late-season groove?
I like the changes overall. I disagree with you on Sexson. Looking at his April BA/OBP/OPS over the past three-five years, he is seriously down in all categories. I think he rebounds some, but not enough to justify a spot at #4 in the lineup. I think he ends the season at .240/.300/.450. Opposing pitchers see him as a “break” through the order and are pitching more carefully to Ibañez and Guillen (bringing down their numbers).
What I would do:
Vs LHP: Ichiro-Lopez-Beltre-Guillen-Johjima-Sexson-Ibanez-Vidro-Betancourt
Vs RHP: Ichiro-Ibanez-Beltre-Broussard-Guillen-Johjima-Sexson-Lopez-Betancourt
So you’re saying that Sexson is anti-protecting Ibanez and Guillen? I doubt this effect exists any more than protection effects exist.
You might say with just as much logic that if Sexson were hitting well that pitchers would also pitch more carefully to Ibanez and Guillen, to avoid extra baserunners.
I think maybe you underestimate Johjima. He batted over .291 with 18 dingers and over 70 rbi batting in the lower part of the lineup last year. He’s currently on the same kind of pace this season.
Is it because he doesn’t walk enough? I don’t believe putting Beltre in the third spot is going to remedy the situation more than Johjima would. We all saw what he did in the 3rd spot given the opportunity. He didn’t fare well, to say the least.
I think Joh could be a very productive 3 hole hitter, and he demonstrated that in his first game there yesterday, knocking home the tying run.
Okay…you think you could once slip in a lame anecdotal comment every once in a while. Regardless…the rest of my post still stands.
yeah, if you look at Sexson’s career numbers he’s a July-Sept monster — so, conveniently, he gets hot right after the trading deadline. If you were going to trade him when his stock was high, it would have been right after his blistering August and September last season. Of course, a smart manager in a pennant race would trade peanuts for him in July with the expectation he was going to get hot, and Bavasi being another kind of manager, might take that trade.
Sorry, spanky, I didn’t mean to sound rude.
#15 Spanky & #16 scraps:
I think Spanky had ir right. To me, pitchers think they’ll get an automatic out with Sexson coming up, so they’ll “pitch carefully,” knowing that if they walk the guys ahead of him, Sexson won’t be able to drive them in.
But in #16, the logic is backward. I’d think if Sexson were hot, pitchers would bear down more, not “pitch carefully.” To me, “pitching carefully” would not avoid extra baserunners, it might actually generate more.
All this just goes to show that the “logic” which underlies the whole idea of “protection” is really just a tangled mass of assumptions and guesses.