Now that’s something
Despite entering the game with a 2.84 ERA, Jarrod Washburn has spent the first part of 2007 doing exactly what he’s done the last three years. He faced some lousy opponents who couldn’t hit a baseball, and it made casual fans think he was pitching far better than he actually was.
Last night’s performance was totally different, however. He wasn’t facing a bad line-up. He wasn’t throwing the ball over the plate and watching the hitters put fly balls in the outfield. He threw strikes, but not contact strikes. He kept the Yankees off balance with his breaking ball and made a conscious effort to induce swings and misses. Last night, Jarrod Washburn pitched a tremendous game. No caveats included. It was the best game he’s ever pitched as a Mariner.
If you want to get excited about Jarrod Washburn’s early season performance, get excited about last night. If he does that all year, then we have something.
What are the chances that he just had a really, really good game? Everone has a good game sometimes. Maybe last night was Washburn’s turn to be on?
And if so: I’ll take it. The only thing that warms my heart more than watching the &*!#ing Yankees lose is watching the Mariners beat them.
Would you say that safeco is ideal fit for Washburns skill set?
If Washburn pitches like last night, Baek pitches like he did against the Tigers, Felix pitches period, and Weaver pitches never again, I’ll feel really, really good about the Mariners this year. Chances of that are not likely but at least they are decent and not absolutely miserable.
Come May 15th it looks like we definitely have legitimate #1 and #2 starters. And with the exit of Jeff Weaver, we might actually get a legitimate #5 starter, whoever they choose to coronate in that role.
Figuratively speaking, I was holding my breath the whole game. I couldn’t believe Washburn was getting past the heart of the Yanks’ order without being destroyed.
I hope Batista and HoRam were taking notes.
Is this… what’s that word? Optimism?
Regardless of how he does for the rest of the year, that’s the kind of thing that makes it exciting to be a fan of any team… watching someone push a little past themselves and excel in a tough situation, emotions displayed but under control, with an element of lurking disaster every time through the lineup. That was just cool to watch.
Honestly, having been there… it was same ol’ Washburn. It was just he was better at keeping the ball down while “pitching to contact.” But the wind was blowing in and knocking down fly balls (and making Ibanez do some funny dances).
One thing I did notice is that he is working faster than he used to. There was a sequence (I think against Abreu in the 5th) where he missed the inside corner twice in four pitches, but he’d take the next throw, get the next sign, and the ball was right back up there a few seconds later. He eventually struck him out. But I remember thinking, he just doesn’t care, he’s just going to throw the ball up there.
I just don’t think it’s sustainable. He’s having his best year in a while, but still, he’s Jarrod Washburn. He’s just getting better at spotting his pitches.
I’ll put it simply since I don’t have time to write anything huge on the subject. His K/9 and BB/9 this year are nearly identical to the past 3 seasons. Yet, he’s suppressing line drives and inducing ground balls at a rate that’s not been seen from him in the past. I personally don’t see much different in the way he’s pitching in May 2007 than how he pitched in May 2006 in terms of how he attacks hitter, his stuff, etc. So you can chalk me up for a vote on the “he’s getting lucky and it’s unsustainable” side of the ledger. I hope I’m proven wrong, but I am doubtful of that.
He is posting a GB/FB ratio over 1 for the season (1.17). That’s a heck of a lot better than his career rate of 0.77. And while seven starts may not be out of the realm of small sample sizes, it’s getting there.
Heck, maybe watching Felix taught him a thing or two about trying for ground balls.
He has always been slightly better in his BABIP numbers, his LOB% is back away from average and to the heights it was in 2005, really looking at the numbers he controls he doesn’t seem too much different than he has in past years.
Where he is performing better this year is the things that are AT LEAST partially helped by luck. I hope it keeps up, but I’m not ready to buy it yet.
Or in other words I agree with 9 (which went up while I was posting), but 10 does have a good point about the GB/FB ratio I over looked.
I will never pretend to be a stats geek on the level of many of you here. For me, ERA is the key for a pitcher. In his BAD years Washburn has been around 4.5, in his good years he’s around 3.5.
So, even if this is the “same old Washburn,” we should be thrilled. He is reaffirming that he is a solid #3 starter for ANY team.
Now we need numbers 2, 4, and 5.
From the vantage point of being at the game last night, it appeared that Washburn was in complete control. There were a couple of hard hit line drives and grounders, but most of the hits were kind of weak. And for whatever it is worth, he broke a lot of bats. I never had that “uh oh” feeling, even with men on base.
Even more importantly, the game showed that it wouldn’t take much for the M’s to win the town back. The stadium wasn’t full, but there was energy (and not just from the Yankees fans or the Idol guy), and a real buzz when JJ pitched the ninth.
AuburnM don’t you wonder why his ERA is random? Doesn’t the fact that it has random differences that you don’t know the cause of show you that its a poor stat?
He is running a 2.64 ERA right now, does that make him a 1,2, or 3 starter? No, you don’t know if it is going to swing up wildly back to 4.5, the truth is his LOB% is up around levels that he hasn’t shown in the past to cause most of the time should concern people a bit.
There’s no real point in arguing with guys like Auburn. We’ve laid the facts out for him, but we can’t make him believe them. If he wants to continue to believe in the magical evaluative power of ERA, that’s his call.
People can be whatever kinds of fans they want. He can be the hope-and-wish kind of fan, the type that would rather not know the realities of certain situations and would rather just believe that anything can happen if they clap hard enough.
You can lead a horse to water and all that.
#15
I don’t consider a variation of one run per nine innings “random,” and I don’t consider an ERA of 4.5 to be unreasonable for a middle of the rotation guy.
And you Dave, can continue to root for the Ms to fail so you can be one of those bitter I-told-you-so “fans.” Have fun with that.
Washburn’s K numbers are up slightly, walks are down slightly, home runs down slightly (driven mostly by a higher GB rate).
in other words, his ERA is way low because of mostly luck yes, but his peripherals *are* better this year than in previous, his FIP (4.01 vs 4.86 in ‘06) reflect that.
I think more than a few of you are missing the point. Moyer is an effective pitcher because he changes speeds and location to prevent hitters from effectively timing his pitches. Moyer, when he is “on”, doesn’t get hit hard consistently. What we are seeing from Washburn is Moyer-esque command of speed and location that is suppressing the opponents ability to hit hard (but with better stuff). I think that ability is sustainable, and that Washburn could have a career year – but we won’t know until the end of the season.
I haven’t looked into it hard, but I’m guessing pitchers like Moyer are harder to evaluate using statistical methods.
If you think I’m rooting for the Mariners to fail, you’re an idiot. There’s no nice way to put that.
Auburn, reread the post and try evaluate it independently of the box you’ve put Dave in. He’s saying all positive things about the game last night. Goodness…
aubunm
What do you gain from posting on this blog? The very things you find no value in are often the main topics of discussion. It doesn’t seem like you are ever going to believe that ERA and RBI’s are not good indicators of a players abilities (which is kind of like believe the world is flat) .
Wonderful to hear last night’s game was so good.
quick questions.
1) Is this consistence from Washburn normal for pitchers, or is Washburn more consistent then the typical pitcher?
2) Though only one start, does this show signs Washburn has the ability to become a better pitcher, from a #4 to a #3?
Washburn’s LD% is amazingly low (10.8%, vs. a recent low of 17.9% in 2006).
I regress from my earlier comment that pitchers like Moyer are hard to evaluate using statistics. I need to do a little more work on this when finals are done.
I am guessing that LD% is a way of telling whether a pitcher is getting hit hard. I can’t say, yet, whether we should expect that “hit hard” stat to tell us whether an unusually successful run by a pitcher will go the way of regression toward the mean. I’d like to find out if there is a consistent pattern in Moyer-esque good seasons ss. bad seasons.
To me, ERA (and the even better RA) is the most important single season pitching stat. If Jarrod Washburn finishes the season with a 2.40 ERA and wins 22 games, but records 90% of his outs on flyballs to the warning track, does he not deserve the Cy Young? To me as a fan, how he got that 2.40 ERA is irrelavent. A few fluky perfomances have been known to win World Series.
If I was a pretend GM, I’m sure I’d think differently.
Ok would love to hear what people think….
If washburn is still the same pitcher, should we try to trade him now that he has a 2.64 era. Will his stock ever be higher then now after shutting down the best offense in the game, and having a decent whip, era ect..
Or do we keep him under the thinking, he’s not the worst thing and will have somewhat ok seasons.
re: 26
He would win the Cy Young, but we would all be very scared of his pitching in October. ERA tells you what happened, it does not help you attempt to predict what will or may happen in the future. So while ERA and wins are perhaps the most important stats for determining awards, they are basically useless for determining player value for the future and explaining how those runs scored and how likely they are to score fewer or more frequently in the future. I would rather have players who are undervalued by those fancy award voters, then overrated for winning them.
There’s no reason to trade Washburn. Sure his contract isn’t great but the M’s are already starved for starting pitching.
Actually, considering where the world of pitching contracts seems to be headed I’m not sure his deal is all that bad.
If it’s time for Jarrod Washburn to have his third fluke season in the past 6 years, I guess I’ll have to take it.
(That’s a better ratio of fluke seasons to non-fluke ones than Bret Boone, FWIW.)
April 5, 2006. Mariners vs Angels. Washburn’s first start as a Mariner.
7 IP, 2h (1 HR), 7 K, 0 BB, 8 GB outs vs 5 FB outs. 100 pitches, 64 strikes.
Dave says:
No walks, seven strikeouts, and more grounders than fly balls? Forget justifying the contract; if he can keep that up, he’s a cy young contender.
Of course, his entire career says he can’t keep this up. But that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy it while it lasts. Nice job, Jarrod.
Deja vu all over again??
if he stays on the same rotation. (I don’t know if Felix return will push things back) but here are the rest of Washburns starts in May:
thursday 17th,vs. Angels
tuesday 22nd vs. Devil Rays
Sunday 27th vs. Kansas City
Washburn could very well produce 2 more very good starts this month. Can’t wait to hear more Washburn debate at the end of the month. Hahaha
28: So what you are saying is that you would rather not have the Cy Young winner. Huh.
Lefty Gomez said “I’d rather be lucky than good”. I just think that some people here have a tough time appreciating the “lucky”, when it’s actually the “lucky” that plays a HUGE part in success any given year. After a good game by a mediocre pitcher, we seem to always want to prepare ourselves for the “let down” on the next start. Some fans just have pessimistic natures.
I know these things about the predictive value of ERA that you’re telling me. Once the season starts though, I don’t really care about all that. I have no control over the crappy moves the front office makes, so I don’t worry about them.
Why does being realistic and analytical mean you aren’t rooting for the team regardless of how the wins turn out? I was just as happy as anyone when the Mariners won that game against the Yanks 5 days ago, despite there being a huge amount of non-repeatable luck involved (Bloomquist’s SB).
Pointing out that something is luck-driven and likely to regress does not a fan rooting for failure make.
#33 – He isn’t saying he wouldn’t rather have the Cy Young winner. He is saying there would be some trepidation if the is your #1 starter because ERA is not a predictor of future success, it is a measure of past success to some degree. If Washburn went 22-6 with an ERA of 2.5, he might very well win the Cy Young even if 90% of his outs were fly balls to the warning track. If Felix ended the season with a record of 15-12 and an ERA of 3.5, and the majority of his outs were groundballs sucked up by Yuni and Beltre, I would still want Felix as my starter in the playoffs.
Ignoring the fact that King Felix, is, well, King Felix, most that post here would want the Felix-esque performer in the crucial situations instead of Washburn.
It’s the “pointing out” multiple times that is sometimes puzzling. It almost seems like people are driven to “defend” the statistical argument – and I just don’t get the sense that it ever needs defending here. Does our desire to have Washburn get lucky and win outweigh our desire to have our argument that he sucks be reinforced? It’s not always crystal clear here.
I think most people here can and do appreciate the “lucky”, for example the lucky call on the Bloomquist SB a few days ago. But it would be foolish to rely on it for future performances.
Lefty Gomez is an excellent example of the role luck plays in pitching statistics.
In 1931 he went 21-9, 2.67, 150-85 K-BB
In 1932 he went 24-7(!), 4.21, 176-105
Basically, he put a lot of runners on by way of walk for his career. The years he had a great ERA, he typically had fewer homeruns given up. In the above example, he went from 7 to 23. Although in 1937 he gave up only 6 yet had a 4.39 ERA. Go figure. In his case, it certainly was better to be lucky than good and that can be said for many, many players. I would love Washburn to have a crazy good lucky cy young season and for Ichiro to break Dimaggio’s hit streak. The difference would be that I would not expect Washburn to repeat next year, while Ichiro would be a good bet to string at at least a 30 game streak next season. Good ultimately proves more dependable than lucky in most cases. Unfortunately, not in the most recent World Series.
Sure, sample size and all that, but Jarrod’s performance last night was excellent. Talk about answering the bell and stepping up in light of the rest of the rotation’s struggles.
In the back of my mind, I’m as skeptical as anyone whether or not last night was a turning point from ‘my success is a product of good fielding, positive variance and betting on my opposition’s inabilities’ to ‘I am actually having a direct impact on my success.’ It could well just have been a good night, but I certainly gained a ton more confidence in Jarrod after watching those 8 shutout innings. He looked like a solid, reliable SP.
Sorry, I’m really coming across as a complainer. This is my favorite website. Just finding ways to pass the time at work…
I think an interesting question is: Should a manager reward luck with continued playing time when faced with a better statistical bet? Say Baek is pitching fluky shutouts, but some starter in AAA is posting 11 K/9 and 65% GB rate. This would really test your SABR guts.
Reason No. 1 to keep things in perspective:
The likely AL Player of the Week this week? Jack Cust.
40 – HA! That is easy.
You kick HoRam to the curb in a heartbeat, no question.
Player I’d rather have DHing than Jose Vidro for pennies on the dollar? Jack Cust.
#40:
A smart team will cash in on the lucky player, trading him to another team that doesn’t see past the luck, for useful parts that are undervalued by that team (often players who have been unlucky).
Beane has often done this – a classic case being Beane’s historic willingness to deal nice shiny “proven closers” to other teams.
Great game by Washburn. Totally exciting to listen to and I got home just in time to see Putz. JJ just looks mean.
As Derek Lowe showed us once, it is entirely possible to have an entire season’s worth of incredibly weird.
The man hits his spots…Obviously he does not have the best stuff in the world but he is smarter and has better control than the majority of the league. With the skyrocketing prices throughout the league this is showing to be a solid signing out of Bavasi (just like I noted on day 1 of the J-Wash era). He is built for Safeco and I expect to see above average years throughout the duration of his deal.
Dave, what’s your current analysis on Jack Cust?
Not to draw the conversation away from the whole “past predicting the future” nature of baseball analysis, but is it possible that Washburn is just plain getting better? I mean, how long can one player’s success be a fluke? The dude’s not a robot.
At his worst, Washburn has had an ERA of 4.5. That’s three runs over 6 innings – which is the definition of a “quality start.”
So, at his worst over a nine year MLB career Jarrod Washburn has consistently delivered what a starter is expected to deliver.
But Bavasi signed him so there must be some magical stat that proves his success is luck and he and the rest of the team will certainly collapse soon because Bavasi and Hargrove are morons and incapable of getting anything right.
Right?
Auburn,
We’ve laid out our arguments for Washburn, why ERA isn’t a good indicator of pitching talent, and our opinions of Bavasi and Hargrove in huge numbers of posts over the past several years. We’ve linked to them for you. We’ve explained our reasoning, and it has nothing to do with what you just wrote.
You don’t accept analytical statistics, fine. But don’t keep building strawman arguments and pretending that we’re some anti-Bavasi hacks who don’t know what we’re talking about.
If you want to wallow in ignorance, that’s your call. You don’t get to pretend that we’re all in the same boat you are, though.
WAYYY OT, but [deleted, ot. also dumb]
Dave,
You clearly know a lot about baseball. And I agree with you that Bavasi has made some truly horrible moves. It is my observation, however, that you and many others have a closed mind regarding the Mariners. This is not unusual. I think it is fairly common for fans to decide that a manager/coach/GM is awful and must go, and they become wedded to that outcome. You are convinced that Bavasi must go so you refuse to accept evidence that undermines your world view.
Lets make this simple: would you agree that the Ms are improved over last year?
You do realize that Bavasi, at my invitation, has attended multiple USSM events and been a ridiculously great guy to the blog, right?
You do know that, as a person, we’re big fans of Bill Bavasi, right?
You do know that if he was good enough at his job to help the Mariners win, we’d love for him to stay GM because of how good he’s been to USSM and how cool it is for us to be able to host events with our readers and have him come talk to us honestly?
You do realize that I called Jarrod Washburn the #1 free agent landmine months before the Mariners actually signed him to a contract, right?
I’m guessing you don’t know any of that. You’re drawing opinions about our motives based on your lack of knowledge of who we are.
Auburn?
So improvement in any year equates to doing a good job? Now I agree that the opinions on here are probably a too harsh on Bavasi. It seems like a lot of people on here would give Bavasi an F….I am more in the C- area. But that last post is pretty soft…of course they are better than last year but almost any performance would have been better.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2007/5/12/3720/93242
“Consistently pitching somewhere between decent and awesome has value, and Washburn’s got it in spades. While I’ll always hate the contract, I’m beginning to really like the player.”
Good write-up.
Washburn seems like a pitcher who’s slightly better than other players with similar peripherals.
My evidence is hardly overwhelming, but over his entire career, his “luck” has varied between neutral (i.e. his FIP and ERA are essentially identical) and outstanding (where his FIP – ERA = more than a whole run).
The arguments I’ve read here about how his best years have been the product of an unsustainable LOB% rate are convincing on a season-by-season basis, but if Washburn’s luck continues to vary between average and great–never bad–don’t you reach a point where you have to think he may be doing something to cause that? Something we can’t measure very well just yet?
We talked about this a few weeks ago – Washburn has pitched in front of tremendous defenses and parks that are flyball friendly for his entire career. Based on the context of his teammates and his home ballparks, we’d expect him to post a lower ERA than his FIP would suggest for his entire career.
57:
I know this sort of opinion is liable to get me strung up around here, but I’ve always thought Washburn had a sort of intangible clutchiness. The dude bears down in tough situations.
I know this sort of opinion is liable to get me strung up around here, but I’ve always thought Washburn had a sort of intangible clutchiness. The dude bears down in tough situations.
Hitters again Washburn for his career:
No one on: .251/.305/.418
Men On: .263/.326/.428
RISP: .260/.337/.421
Late and Close: .329/.368/.573
Innings 7-9: .330/.373/.569
We won’t string you up. We’ll just point out that these kinds of feelings almost always have no basis in reality.
Thank you for that. I feel politely put in my place.
Although, not to make you a stat gopher, anyway to compare those stats career vs. this season?
Dave,
Doesn’t the signing of J-Wash make more sense then another player say K. Millwood with the context of our unique situation in Seattle (good defense and unfriendly to RH hitters). Sometimes I feel you only judge players as if they are playing under neutral conditions( when the game is never actually played in neutral situations). What I am saying is that J-Wash should not be insulted on here by playing to his defense and park. He should just be smart and only sign a free agent contract with a team that suits his style of play. Just because a pitcher puts up better splits in “neutral conditions” does not make him a better pitcher. So while Washburn may have fluctuated between great and average based on the perceived advantages of defense and park that he has had, that will continue and his success will continue. He should get credit for being smart and using his surroundings ( because strikeouts are less valuable in a park like Safeco).
Dave,
No, I didn’t know any of that. And so what?
Why can’t you admit what is self-evident: the Mariners are better now than they were last year?
I’d forgotten about the good defense/favorable ballpark stuff.
I guess I’m just skeptical that our analytical tools are so finely-honed they can explain every skillset in the game. When a guy’s entire career is an outlier, I think that leaves room to think he might have some unusual talents–not to say his contract wasn’t BS or that he’s anything more than a #3 starter at best.
Defense and ballpark could explain all the discrepancy in Washburn’s luck, but relying on those things to make up all the difference makes his evaluation a little murkier than similar pitchers.
Baseball-Reference.com has the splits for every season of Washburn’s career. You can see them all there.
As for Washburn being a good fit for Safeco, all that is true, and I wouldn’t have had any problem with his signing if it would have been a one or two year deal for half the money, and the team realized he was a back-end starter and not a frontline guy.
The problem with signing guys who outperform their abilities based on their park context is you still have to pitch on the road (Washburn was *horrible* away from Safeco last year).
I’d rather have good pitchers than pitchers whose teammates and park make them look good, especially when I’m committing four years and $37.5 million dollars to them.
Auburn – They would have to try really hard to have a worse team than they had last year.
Losing 20 straight vs. your own division will pretty much demoralize a team. That kind of craziness will not continue.
I propose a 1 week moratorium on responses to posts by AuburmM – he/she’s such an obvious troll it’s not worth the effort.
No, I didn’t know any of that. And so what?
The fact that admittedly know so little about us should make you rethink your opinion of what you know about our motives.
Why can’t you admit what is self-evident: the Mariners are better now than they were last year?
Go read any of the numerous posts we wrote before the season. We’ve talked to death about the team’s strengths and weaknesses, how good a team we feel they are, and how improved they are compared to last year.
I propose a 1 week moratorium on responses to posts by AuburmM – he/she’s such an obvious troll it’s not worth the effort.
I disagree. I think Auburn is a relatively intelligent person who has spent a long time believing what ESPN and the Seattle Times have told him. He’s only been exposed to USSM for a few months. I think there’s a good chance that, if he’s willing to open his mind up a bit, he’ll come around eventually.
If I didn’t think there was some hope for him, I wouldn’t bother.
I thought the talk about how Washburn pitched yesteday was more along the lines of “Pitching like we’ve not seen him pitch before. Better command of location and change of speed than he’s shown in the past. Pitching more like Moyer, but with a reportoire and skills that are better than Moyers.” I understand that his past seasons have been a discussion point for a long time, but the story here is whether he’s improved his control to become a dominant pitcher (as evidenced yesterday) or if it was a fluke, just a great game for once. The way he was pitching yesterday indicated to me a domince that I’ve never seen out of him.
And though the teams improved overall I don’t give the benefit of doubt in that improvement to the GM. Rationally what has improved that he oversaw? Look at the moves he made bringing in Batista, Ho-Ram, Weaver, Reitsma, Vidro, Guillen, Burke and Ellison. Weaver alone is making it hard to beleive the starting pitching has improved. When looking at Reitsma I seem to recall a Soriano filling that spot last year. Guillen is obviously an improvement over the 3rd outfielder last year (and there were a few) and Vidro’s been better than last years stupid signing of Everett (at, what, twice the cost before you include the loss of Snelling and Fruto in the cost column). The problem with evaluating Vidro as better than Everett is that we all know Snelling was a better option than Everett and probably better than Vidro (health concerns included.) To me it would seem that most of the improvement has been players already on the team performing better than they did last April. Really the huge steps back between the Ho-Ram, Weaver and Vidro moves alone make it almost impossible to beleive the team could be better.
It’s nearly impossible to sign a pitcher of Washburn’s ability to a 1 or 2 year deal at half the salary..Look what it cost to sign a worse pitcher like Weaver. I would rather have a solid guy locked up for multiple years.
There wasn’t another team in baseball interested in giving Jarrod Washburn a multiyear deal. When he asked the Angels for one, Bill Stoneman laughed.
The M’s drastically overrated Washburn’s abilities when they gave him that contract. Good pitchers can be had if you’re smart enough to know where to look.
Gee, thanks Dave.
What exactly am I going to come around to?
I am trying to find one place ever where Dave said this team is worse this year then last year…..
Not seeing it.
I have found USSMariner to be less of a ‘fan site’ than it is a true ‘baseball teacher’. It exposes the average ‘Woo Mariners!’ fan to a level of the game beyond anything presented in the game telecasts. It is not here to create mindless followers of Dave or DMZ. But rather to teach them to think for themselves. All with the knowledge of tools that ESPN, FSN, ‘Commentators’, and the Front Office leaves out.
If someone can come to this site, and simply walk away with the understanding that ERA and RBI are outdated modes of evaluating talent…I think the writers at USS Mariner would call this website a success. In the end, they are here as mentors. Opening the eyes of Joe Fan to what will be the next generation of baseball evaluation.
Finally, I wish to express my sincere thanks to each of them for enriching my own baseball experience. Before USS Mariner I had never even heard of VORP. And though the authors here are not ‘baseball gods’ that know everything all the time…they know a good deal more than I do. My recommendation to the readers here: don’t just take them at their word. Rather, weigh heavily their informed comments, do not dismiss them lightly. And try to soak up as much of their knowledge as you can as you become better prepared to form your opinion. Your love of the game will only grow.
Very well said hub.
Thank you to DMZ, Dave and others.
Hitters again Washburn for his career:
No one on: .251/.305/.418
Men On: .263/.326/.428
RISP: .260/.337/.421
Late and Close: .329/.368/.573
Innings 7-9: .330/.373/.569
How does this compare with other pitchers?
The RISP indicate to me that he doesn’t fall apart with RISP (allows a few more on, but not substantially so). Late innings shows me that he gets tired and should be replaced by a reliever (but doesn’t that apply to other pitchers as well…)
I have to agree with wholeheartedly with hub and coasty141. I’ve read this site since the days on blogger. Now, instead of being simply a passionate Mariners fan and general fan of the game, as I have been since I was a kid, I feel like I am an intelligent fan. Thanks Dave, DMZ, Jason, and Jeff.
gee, I guess Geoff Baker must be one of those darned Bavasi Haters, as well.
Since visiting this site regularly I have learned a heck of a lot about how certain statistics may be used to weed out less desirable players. I have always been a fan who just hopes that their team will get lucky in any situation, and that RBI/ERA were wholly useful statistical measures. But I can now see the value of pointed statistical analysis. AuburnM will come around–I did.
Awww. Thanks. I feel better now about fighting the site outage yesterday.
#64:
Do you realize how silly you appear when you make posts like this?? Seriously.
Dave and Derek have commented frequently about the state of the team and even before the season started observed that they believed the team was clearly better this year than last year.
So, when you make a post like this, the only point you make is that you haven’t done your homework and you’ve been too lazy to take advantage of the help and links that have been provided. Don’t be surprised, then, when the replies to your posts have some bite.
If you take some time to get involved and learn the context and background of the discussions here, I think you’ll find that you’ll come away a smarter fan. Not that you will necessary agree with Dave, Derek, and others; bur rather that if you have a differing opinion it will be based on knowledge and evaluation instead of assumptions based on superficial information.
Auburn,
I dont think that they’re implying that youre an idiot just cause you don’t follow all the new, complicated, slightly intimidating stats. Its not as simple as that.
The way I look at it, there’s a spectrum of baseball thinking that goes all the way from “wins are the most important stat period” (basically everyone USSM makes fun of) to those crazy math geniuses that look at players as nothing but a mass of numbers and equations.
I don’t think either extreme end of the spectrum is good, you need a balance. But I do think that it should be shifted significantly toward the new sabremetric way of thinking, like USSM, lookoutlanding, firejoemorgan, etc. are.
Theyre not saying you should just jump ship and start looking at the game on a different plane, but rather shift your thinking [i]along[/i] the plane (or line or whatever) towards the stats that have been proven time and time again to be valid and very useful.
damn HTML, i’ll never understand you
Auburn:
One thing I would add is that what makes Dave, Derek, Jason and Jeff superb analysts is that they don’t stake out a position and then fit the facts to support that thesis. Instead, they ask questions, search out the answers and then form conclusions.
The proof is this is their willingness to admit it when they’re wrong. Dave’s ability to bend on his season-plus-long analysis of Washburn as a pitcher is a perfect example of this. He’s also conceded that Vidro may not be completely worthless, after staking out that position in no uncertain terms — after Vidro went out and proved him wrong. Derek has mea-culpa’ed several times after publicly opining that signing Raul Ibanez in the 2003-04 offseason was “money they might as well have rolled up and smoked.”
But those instances pale in comparison to the number of times they’ve been proven right. In the search field here, type in “Aurilia,” “Spiezio,” “Everett, “Mateo,” etc. Their reasoning has been clear and consistent from the beginning, and the results have proven them right.
That balance of flexibility, humility and piercing insight is why many of us keep coming back.
Read some of the archived threads going back a few years, Auburn. It’s just as fun as it is enlightening.
I picture AuburnM as the arch enemy of Dave. Kinda like Garth Knight to Michael Knight (you must respect the Hoff). Of course to be a competent arch enemy you should bring something of value to your posts, and since AuburnM has failed that, can’t you guys just turn off his account? I don’t remember the Bill of Rights having the freedom to blog.
thanks, by the way.
it sounds like it blowed up good.
For me, the Yankee line-up is very Double-A. Please do not overrate Washy’s game.
Uh … who’s a Double-A player from last night’s lineup? Phelps and Melky Cabrera were the “weakest” links, and they’re both legit major-league role players — a little better than replacement-level.
Beyond that, I count two future Hall of Famers (Jeter, A-Rod), three players who will get some HOF votes (Abreu, Posada, Damon), and two players who will likely have long, solid careers (Matsui, Cano).
Lineups don’t get much tougher than that.
The “please” was a nice touch, though.
Hey Dave, in addition to being a rabid Mariner fan I’m just as big of a Seahawk fan as well.
I was wondering if you were a fan, and if you knew any websites/blogs out there that have similar new-age kinds of statistical data on NFL players.
Learning new ways of evaluating players is fun, and I’d like to extend knowledge to my Seahawks fandom as well.
#91: There’s a football version of Baseball Prospectus.
#91, #92 – The guys who do Football Prospectus have a free website at footballoutsiders.com. Advanced football stats are in their infancy compared to baseball (partly because there are only 1/10 of the games in a football season), but the guys there really know their stuff. I don’t know of any Seahawks-specific sites that use that kind of data, but then I’m not a Seahawks fan.
I’m not a big football fan, but Mike Sando at the (Tacoma) News Tribune (www.tribnet.com) runs what I think is the best Seahawks blog out there, full of interesting insider info and sideways analysis. In my opinion, he’s like an even better version of Geoff Baker as a sportswriter-blogger, both in terms of quality and quanity.
It’s more healthy IMO to have people questioning the dominant position, especially if they can do so politely. It both forces people to clarify their arguments and prevents us from getting too caught up in group think.
What’s the fun of a message board if everyone agrees?
91 – 93 beat me to footballoutsiders.com Good site.
Also, for those who want to go to the end with the Sonics, check out 82games.com
Regarding his higher than career GB %, is Washburn picking up the team’s current pitching philosophy and throwing more 2-seamers?
Thanks a lot for the information I’ll be looking into those sites. I agree that Sando has the best football insider blog on the web.
This is not a message board.
We don’t all have to agree, but throwing tomatoes from the ignorance gallery is not productive.
DMZ – ok, fair enough. Still though, there are comments here and I at least find a give and take serves a purpose. Obviously I really enjoy the posts here or I wouldn’t spend as much time as I do reading this site, but I also like seeing the counterarguments presented. If nothing else, that’s useful so Dave can remind me when I space an entire season of a pitcher’s record.
#50 AuburnM Says:
At his worst, Washburn has had an ERA of 4.5. That’s three runs over 6 innings – which is the definition of a “quality start.â€
Because a 4.5 ERA can define a quality start, that doesn’t make a starter with an ERA of 4.5 a quality pitcher, or better yet, not a pitcher you fork over nearly $40M and say is your #2 pitcher.
Dave said:
“I disagree. I think Auburn is a relatively intelligent person who has spent a long time believing what ESPN and the Seattle Times have told him. He’s only been exposed to USSM for a few months. I think there’s a good chance that, if he’s willing to open his mind up a bit, he’ll come around eventually.”
I understand the idea of killing him with kindness, but even then I find this pretty over-the-top.
Auburn has showed us time again that he is pretty closed off from accepting any new ideas or even recognizing the opinions of others.
Auburn has showed us time again that he is pretty closed off from accepting any new ideas or even recognizing the opinions of others.
If you go read through the archives of the usenet group alt.sport.baseball.sea-mariners for posts by “Rick Cameron” or “Richard Cameron”, you’ll find a pretty close minded guy who had no interest in learning from those who knew more about baseball than he did. In fact, here’s a pretty good example.
That was me about 13 or 14 years ago. I’m glad people didn’t throw me out on my ear as a troll then.
I don’t want this to be a place where we all agree, either. I want people to challenge me on stuff – I just want them to do so with some substance. I think there’s a legitimate counter-argument to be made for a lot of the stuff I say. My patience just runs thin with people who don’t want to take the time to back up their opinions with any kind of evidence, logic, or reason.
If anyone wants to come in and have a conversation about why I’m wrong about the predictive value of FIP, and doesn’t bother to stoop to the normal “you hate the Mariners” crap, I’m more than happy to have that conversation.
I’m proud of the fact that USSM has served to help a lot of people understand the game a lot better, and I want it to continue to do so. I just would prefer to have a higher level of discourse than “you’re biased, you’re a Bavasi hater”.
#95, #101
And who do you have in your mind when saying that?
Participants need to agree on the rule of the game if differences in opinion are to be all good and productive. The USSM guys do not expect readers to think the same opinion, but they sure expect us to think in the same mode of analysis as theirs, i.e., (at least make efforts to) backed up your argument and conclusion with information, reason and logical thinking.
Auburn hasn’t met this expectation, at least so far. But it’s up to the USSM crew what to do with him.
(Sorry, Dave said it all just above.)
auburnM
Using ERA to justify a quality start is not going to carry a lot of weight.
Washburn allow three runs over 6 innings and
a.) the eight defensive players behind him are all gold glove caliber and get to every ball possible but the opposing hitters hit three ball over the fence.
b.) the eight defensive players all are over 500 lbs and do not move well. They are unable to get to balls average player can.
After an entire season would Washburn have better era with situation A or B taking place over and over again?
This is extreme but it is my feable attempt to explain this to you.
#104:
Dave, thanks for that post. From someone reading more than posting AuburnM has sparked a ton of interesting discussions; its those voices that force everyone to justify why Vidro hitting third makes us angry. Not saying I agree with the opinions but I’m glad someone’s providing the contrast.
#96: “Also, for those who want to go to the end with the Sonics, check out 82games.com”
82games.com is excellent, but the overall best site for application of sabrmetric principles to basketball is the “apbrmetrics” site at
http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/
SonicsCentral.com is also the best overall Sonics’ site, but ironically, the group there is not all that strong on statistics.
And yes, “apbrmetrics” is an appallingly ugly word as well as a ripoff of “sabrmetrics”.