20 Percent Grades – The Offense
With yesterday’s win, the Mariners passed the 20% mark of the season, as they have now played just over 1/5th of the 2007 season. And they passed that mark over .500 while playing the tough part of their schedule and only getting two starts from Felix Hernandez. Looking at the big picture, you have to take the results so far and be pretty happy. The team lost the guy it could least afford to lose and were able to keep their heads above water while waiting for him to return. Felix returns tomorrow, the schedule over the next month is significantly easier than the past month, and it’s unlikely we’ll ever have to see Jeff Weaver pitch again, so hope abounds in Seattle.
Since we’re at the 20 percent mile marker and it’s an off day (don’t get too used to these), I figure its time for an early season report card. Let’s see who has been helping the team the most through the first stretch of the year. Here’s the position players – we’ll do the pitching in another post later today.
Kenji Johjima, Catcher – Grade: A
He’s been the early season power source, leading the team in slugging percentage and providing offense from the catcher spot. He has the highest OPS on the club despite still being allergic to walks. His defense still isn’t great, but the runs he generates with his bat more than make up for it.
Richie Sexson, First Base – Grade: F
There are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve as the season goes on, but no matter how you slice it, 6 weeks of a first baseman hitting .183/.282/.391 while playing bad defense is a drag on the team. He still leads all the other hitters in walks, and he won’t keep hitting balls right at guys all year, but he’s been a bad baseball player so far.
Jose Lopez, Second Base – Grade: C
While finding some of his power stroke from last year’s first half, Lopez hasn’t shown any real growth this year. He still doesn’t walk, he’s not driving the ball with consistency, and he doesn’t have the bat control to be a high enough average hitter to make that package work really well. On the plus side, his defense has been solid. There’s room for more with Lopez, and the M’s should hope that he starts to take some steps forward sooner rather than later.
Yuniesky Betancourt, Shortstop – Grade: D
Betancourt’s taken a step back across the board so far. While he still possesses well above average range, he’s made too many misplays on balls that should be easy outs, and if he’s not playing like an elite defender, he’s not helping the team. He’s still just an okay hitter whose value is tied directly to his defensive performance, and so far, it hasn’t been good enough. He’s still a valuable piece going forward, and I’m not too worried about the error rate staying this high, but he hasn’t been helping the team this year.
Adrian Beltre, Third Base – Grade: C
Beltre’s off to his usual slow start, but unlike the Bad Beltre we’ve seen in years past, this one isn’t totally lost. He’s hitting for power and walking occassionally, but he just hasn’t hit enough singles yet. Offensively, there’s not a huge difference between what Beltre and Sexson have given the Mariners, but Beltre’s abilities to play a pretty terrific defensive third base still make him a far more valuable player.
Raul Ibanez, Left Field – Grade: F
This is the Raul Ibanez we all thought we were getting several years ago – the guy with the nice swing who hits for a high enough average but doesn’t walk much and has no power. He’s hitting .275, but only 8 of his 36 hits have gone for extra bases, including just one home run. When this guy is your left-handed power, you’re in trouble. He also continues to deteriorate defensively, and watching him chase balls in the alley is now nothing short of painful. Let’s hope for a rebound, but honestly, he looks pretty much done as a useful player.
Ichiro Suzuki, Center Field – Grade: B
If I told you Ichiro was hitting .286, you’d probably assume that he was in one of his offensive funks and was hurting the club. But, he’s actually not. His secondary skills have made up for the lower than usual batting average, as he’s second on the team in walks and third on the team in extra base hits. He’s got the third highest OPS on the team while playing a quality defensive center field, and that continues to make him a highly valuable player. He’s gotta start running more, though.
Jose Guillen, Right Field – Grade: A
Here’s something you probably don’t know – Jose Guillen has been the third best right fielder in the American League this year. Vlad and Ordonez are off to MVP quality starts, but Guillen’s the next best guy through the first chunk of the season. His shoulder is fine, he’s driving the ball with consistency, and he’s drawing more walks than usual while also leading the league in HBP. An .830 OPS out of anyone in Safeco is valuable, but when it’s a guy who was picked up as a reclamation project on a one year deal – well, this couldn’t have gone any better so far. He’s right behind Johjima and Ichiro in the team MVP race.
Jose Vidro, Designated Hitter – Grade: D
There are nine DH’s that have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Jose Vidro ranks 9th in OPS among those hitters. Yes, he’s hitting .307, but he has a total of five extra base hits, has drawn just 8 walks, and has thrown in 7 double plays to boot. Toss in the fact that his batting average is being driven by a team high seven infield hits, and Vidro doesn’t exactly look like he’s got a lot left to offer. The Mariners might be happy with the production they’re getting from Jose Vidro, but that doesn’t mean we should be.
Bloomquist, Broussard, Burke, and Ellison, Bench – Grade: B
This is basically all Jamie Burke, who has been a revelation compared to the putridity Rene Rivera offered last season. Willie’s been his usual terrible self, Broussard’s been solid in very limited playing time, and Ellison is simply around because he gives the illusion of a more versatile bench.
Overall Offense – Grade: C
Sexson and Beltre need to start turning some of those outs into singles while maintaining their power and walk rates, and it would help if Lopez/Betancourt would stop getting themselves out so often. But Johjima and Guillen have made up for most of the shortcomings, and the offense hasn’t been as big a problem as it could have been.
Comments
156 Responses to “20 Percent Grades – The Offense”
The one bright spot about Sexson is that, if he remains true to form and picks up from mid-summer on, it’ll be like they traded him for a better-hitting player. Bad Richie for Good Richie, the annual July trade.
The downside is that if he keeps sucking this badly until then, he may drag the team down enough it won’t matter.
Raul is hitting .480 with risp and leading the team in rbi’s. Sorry, I don’t think that deserves an F.
Even if you want to use the clutch argument with Raul, it fails. He’s got a -0.09 clutch rating for the year (which essentially measures how well he performs compared to an average hitter in situations that matter to the team winning and losing).
Thanks to the awesomeness of fangraphs and their new play logs, we can even look at his performance in the “most clutch” situations this year.
May 3rd: Down 8-7, 0 out, runner at 1st base in the 9th inning. Grounds into double play – took 25% off the M’s odds of winning that game with one swing.
April 2nd: Down 1-0, 1 out, bases loaded in the 6th inning. Hits a sacrifice fly to tie the game, but only adds 3% to the M’s odds of winning that game in a situation where he could have done much, much more.
May 8th: down 9-7, 1 out, runner on first base in the 9th inning. Flies out to center field, lowering the M’s chances of winning by 5%.
April 23rd: Down 5-4, 0 out, runners at first and third in the 7th inning. Grounds out to second base to tie the game, but only gives the Mariners a 0.2% boost in win probability.
Those are the only four times he’s come to the plate in a situation where the leverage index was higher than 2.0, and he made 5 outs in those four at-bats. If you take his 13 highest leveraged at-bats of the year, he’s 1 for 12 with a single and a sacrifice fly.
Raul’s been horrible so far, and his RISP performance hasn’t overcome the fact that he’s made a lot of outs when they needed him to get a hit.
“Raul is hitting .480 with risp and leading the team in rbi’s. Sorry, I don’t think that deserves an F.”
Let’s respond in the form of a question.
“Alex, what is a non-repeatable skill?”
Seriously, and RBIs depend on where you are in the batting order more than your quality as a hitter. You could be a very poor hitter and drive in 85-90 runs.
A .683 OPS from a bad defensive LF IS an F, by any measure. Carl Everett was at .657 last year when he got booted off the island.
I agree he’s been fairly horrible, but I would lean more towards D+ horrible rather than F horrible. For comparison purposes, what is Beltre’s clutch rating?
Beltre is at -0.21.
Ichiro has the third best OPS on the team, behind Joh and Guillen. Not the second.
Oh, and between them? Vidro and Ibanez have 13 GIDPs. If you’re wondering why the offense is inconsistent, that’s a big part of it- a giant bunch of suck and slow in the middle of the batting order.
And, of course, Hargrove, being the lineup genius that he is, is putting them next to each other in the batting order, making sure they BOTH can GIDP effectively and kill rallies.
With the proviso that I’d rather Vidro was still a Washington National or DFA’ed, I would be happier with him batting 9th with Betancourt batting 8th, on the grounds that Ichiro would be the guy least likely to double him up, and separating Ibanez and Vidro in the batting order. It sort of hoses Ichiro’s ability to run if Vidro gets on, but the M’s are pretty station-to-station anyway.
Beltre’s clutch rating is at -.021. He’s been slightly worse than Ibanez in high leverage situations, slightly better in low leverage situations. The big difference between the two, however, is defense. Adrian’s really good with the glove and Raul’s really bad with the glove.
Ichiro has the third best OPS on the team, behind Joh and Guillen. Not the second.
That’s what it says.
I thought Ibanez was bad this year, but not this bad.
And defensively… bleah. Every catch is an AMAZING CATCH because he’s having to throw himself at the ball to even have a chance at it.
But leading the team in RBIs? What surprises me is that the M’s are even getting runners on for him to drive in.
Beltre’s bat continues to trouble me, but his glove is making up for it.
Sexson is starting to remind me a bit of latter day Boone, though we haven’t entered the Swing-With-All-Your-Might, Do-The-Bat-Flip, Caught-On-The-Edge-Of-The-Warning-Track phase yet. He’s still in the Strike-Yourself-Out phase.
Oh, and so when do we start seeing the “Willie’s having a bad year because he’s not getting regular playing time, but he should get more because he’s so gritty” pieces from the local media?
I’ll say May 27th…
Hmmmm, perhaps we should figure the aging pattern for grit and scrap. Maybe WFB is on the wrong side of that curve
When was Willie ever on the RIGHT side of the curve, in terms of actually being any good in the Mark McLemore supersub role the M’s wanted to put him in?
And don’t say 2002- cups of coffee have “small sample size” problems.
I dunno about Guillen… he’s sporting a ridiculous platoon split. His line is basically thanks to 25 really good at-bats vs. LHP. He’s been downright awful against RHP.
Well, I guess you could argue this the other way. I mean, unless they changed the rules without telling me, it still only takes three outs to end an inning so there’s no way they can both GIDP in the same rally. Putting them together at least means there aren’t two separate rally-killing mechanisms of suckitude in the same lineup; instead, they’re combined for certain rallicide.
But we know lineups don’t matter that much; the problem is the people in the lineup, not the order in which they’re arranged. And these two, separately or together, certainly constitute a problem. Vidro is unlikely to maintain his pace of infield hits and seeing-eye singles, and when that pace falters his average will drop below the magical .300 mark and we’ll start hearing about a “slump” which, because it isn’t a slump so much as is real talent level, will eventually become a drumbeat for change. So Vidro worries me less than Ibanez, if only because the team clearly has a PR/emotional investment in the latter. The M’s have shown they wait far too long to admit they made a mistake and jettison a player, but when it’s a player like Everett they will at least jettison him. Ibanez isn’t a player like Everett, however, and they’re going to have a far harder time admitting the “face of the franchise” has fallen off a cliff. Of course, Ibanez could rediscover his power stroke, but I wouldn’t count on it; and if he doesn’t, it’s going to be painful to watch the team run him out there every day in the field and at the plate.
He hit .455 that year, how is that not good
Is there *any* way to get Burke more at bats without sitting Johjima? I assume that the third catcher (whoever that is) will be strictly for emergencies only.
It seems a shame having an effective hitter you can never really use without losing an even more effective hitter or risking putting in a catcher who hasn’t caught since little league.
If Raul is an “F” then Sexson should be an “F-”.
In reading some of these comments, I see we’re still struggling to accept the reality that defense matters as much as offense. Even if Raul was a LOT better with his bat, he still wouldn’t be balancing it out with his cringeworthy defense.
That’s why I pipe up occasionally with the observation that Ellison ought to sub for Ibanez once a week or so. Many of you reply by saying that Ellison is basically an outfield version of Bloomquist, and I wouldn’t argue that too strenuously … but what you should realize that an Ellison who hits .260 with little secondary value but plays all-solar-system defense is better than a wash for what Ibanez now provides.
Defense matters, folks.
Didn’t we already have one of those in March?
I agree that Ellison should spell Ibanez more often. Especially entering this stretch with all the make-up games and no off-days, Hargrove should have a plan (yeah, I know, “Hargrove” and “plan”) to rotate his bench through the regulars so everybody gets an off day. And when Ellison is replacing Ibanez/Guillen, they could still bat as DH. Or stick Ibanez at first and sit Sexson.
Something Drayer said in one of the after-game radio conversations made me wonder about the Ellison-for-Guillen substitutions. She said Guillen had injured both ankles so far this season, and also mentioned his knee. I wonder if Hargrove is leaving Ibanez out there not because he thinks Ibanez doesn’t need a defensive replacement but because he’s more afraid he’s going to lose Guillen completely to an injury at some point.
The M’s have shown they wait far too long to admit they made a mistake and jettison a player, but when it’s a player like Everett they will at least jettison him. Ibanez isn’t a player like Everett, however, and they’re going to have a far harder time admitting the “face of the franchise†has fallen off a cliff.
Vidro’s under contract for 2008. I think you’re going to see the M’s run him out to the tune of a .270/.325/.360 (or even .290/.345/.380) line all year long, unless he completely collapses for a couple of months ala Everett- and maybe not even then. This organization played Scott Spiezio for 112 games in 2004 batting .215/.288/.346, and Jeff Cirillo for 146 games hitting .249/.301/.328- it’s going to be very hard for them to look past a shiny batting average and “proven veteran”-ness.
So there is a chance of upside?
Yeah!
Its is a shame the people see vidro’s batting average and come to the determination that he is a productive member on the team. He’s playing about as well as we hope and we are getting .717 ops from the DH spot
But I heard yesterday that Ibanez looks real comfortable at the plate right now…I don’t recall if it was Sims or Blowers who said that. Isn’t looking comfortable worth an upgrade?
No, I’d think it was early in the season. Ichiro’s about a .285 hitter in April for his career. He beat that this year, so I would figure based job on batting average he was off to a pretty good start.
And Spiezio actually finished pretty strong. He carried a .054 batting average (or something like it) for much of that season.
Yeah but that was before he got the tattoo.
There are nine DH’s that have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Jose Vidro ranks 9th in OPS among those hitters.
EqA rankings from BP in the DH category, 100 PA’s to qualify:
Ortiz: .340
Hafner: .324
Giambi: .294
Sosa: .288
Sheffield: .283
Millar: .279
Vidro: .258
Piazza: .254
Sweeney: .253
Hillenbrand: .165
Thome’s on the DL, FWIW, and so’s Piazza.
It’s probably a tossup as to who’s the second-worst DH between Piazza, Sweeney and Vidro, will Hillenbrand leading the rear, but Vidro is the only guy out of those hitters who has a second guranteed year on his deal of suck, and we actually had to GIVE SOMEONE UP to get him. Yay us.
Too negative, as usual, IMO, especially regarding Ibanez and Vidro. Batting average may not be the sole factor, but how do you give a guy hitting .300 a D?!
The Ms have scored 4.5 runs per game. That’s better than Oakland or the Angels. I think B- would be a little more fair overall.
Because hitting .300 isn’t valuable when it’s an empty batting average?
Dave even showed how Vidro was the worst DH in the league among those who qualify for the batting title.
The grade that seems misassigned here is Betancourt’s, both in terms of absolute scale, and in saying “he has taken a step backwards and is not helping the team”. He has the 6th highest OPS among Mariner starters, ahead of Richie, Raul, and Lopez, and is ahead of Lopez in each of BA, OBP, Slug. He’s in the middle of the shortstop pack league-wide in OPS, including the 4th best shortstop in the league in LD % and 6th best in Slugging — both of which are improvements from last year (so he hasn’t taken a step backwards across the entire board). And he’s helping the team: he’s the highest rated shortstop in the league in clutch ratings (is even 5th overall among all players), and is the highest rated Mariner in WPA — ahead of all the ‘A’ and ‘B’ students. I agree that his defense has been sloppier than he’s capable and than it should be, but if Lopez is a C, Yuni’s more a B- than a D.
how do you give a guy hitting .300 a D?!
The explanation for the grade was given. Vidro simply doesn’t hit enough for extra bases to drive in more runs or put himself into scoring position. Furthermore, a guy that slow with 7 infield hits has flat out been lucky and he can’t do anything to repeat that all season long.
See? ep’s EqA numbers show that Vidro is a below-average hitter. Not just a below average DH, but a below average hitter (an EqA of .260 is always average).
But he’s a DH. Hitting is his only job. How hard can it be to find a guy who’s above average if you don’t need to him to have any defensive skills at all?
[i]The Ms have scored 4.5 runs per game. That’s better than Oakland or the Angels. I think B- would be a little more fair overall.[/i]
Just because our below-average offensive team is better than two other below-average offensive teams that just happen to be in our division does not make our team a good offensive team. There is plenty of room for improvement.
Betancourt’s grade is almost all about his defense. He and Lopez have been basically the exact same hitter, which gives Betancourt a slight bump because the positional adjustment for SS is higher than for 2B.
However, Betancourt’s made 8 errors in the first 33 games. Even if you believe, like I do, that his natural skills make him worth about +10 runs over the course of the year defensively, that would mean we’d only expect his range to be worth about 2 runs with the glove so far. The 8 errors more than wipe out any positive defensive contribution he may have provided over Lopez.
Betancourt’s been a bad defensive player so far, and his value is basically tied to his defense. I have every expectation that will change, but through the first 33 games, he hasn’t been helping the team win.
AuburnM,
You make it sound like they tally up which team scores the most runs at the end of the game to award the winner.
Don’t you know it’s EqA’s & OPS’s and GB’s?
#38
Ah…a kindred spirit.
You want runs instead of stats you don’t understand? Fine.
Jose Vidro has the fewest runs created of any Mariner. His only job is to be a create runs as a hitter, and he’s creating less runs than every other hitter on the team.
Just because you have no idea how stats work doesn’t mean that we don’t.
#38 – If you’re to learn or offer something of value towards the conversation, I’m all for a spirited debate. Your ignorance (which is not-so-cleverly veiled as sarcasm) does little to contribute to the conversation.
I have played, coached, and watched baseball my whole life. I understand baseball is a game of numbers. I also understand you can make numbers say whatever you want them to say.
Vidro is hitting over .300 in the 2 hole. I wouldn’t give him and A, for the reasons you mentioned, but no baseball observer would give the guy a D – unless of course Vidro had been traded for some beloved and misunderstood martyr….
What is Snelling hitting this year BTW?
#43 – So you’re saying that the statistics that have been presented regarding Vidro are biased? If that’s your assertion, then I challenge you to bring some sort of statistic or analysis to the plate that would disprove Dave’s analysis (besides batting average, which is a very obtuse stat).
I’ve sent Auburn an email so I can discuss his issues with us off the site. I’m going to ask everyone else to just ignore his ramblings about us all being biased anti-Bavasi haters. Let’s not have this thread turn into another one of those conversations.
Which would you rather have?
Player A: .279/.429/.475
or
Player B: .307/.345/.372
I’ll take Player A 100 times out of 100, personally.
Since I can obviously make numbers say whatever I want them to say, Snelling is hitting 80 bajillion.
Also, why would your experience at coaching baseball have any bearing on your ability as an analyst?
dave,
fan graphs has vidro with 16 rc. That more that a feqw of the other mariners if i’m reading it correctly. Am I interpreting some data incorrectly?
Analysis?
Vidro has more hits than Ichiro and is hitting for a higher average. His SLG and OBS numbers are only slightly lower, yet Ichiro gets a B, and Vidro a D. Ichiro and Vidro both hit at the top of the order? What’s the difference?
Bavasi traded Snelling for Vidro
Sorry. That’s my analsis.
Ichiro plays gold glove defense in CF, Vidro’s fat ass keeps a good chunk of the bench warm.
Vidro has more hits than Ichiro and is hitting for a higher average. His SLG and OBS numbers are only slightly lower, yet Ichiro gets a B, and Vidro a D. Ichiro and Vidro both hit at the top of the order? What’s the difference?
One plays a gold glove center field. The other is a DH.
You can’t really be this ignorant.
#49 – The big difference between them are (as you stated) the slugging and on-base percentages. In addition, Vidro does not play the field, so there’s an obvious value added to Ichiro for playing GG-caliber defense in CF. Also, as someone else stated, Vidro has had 7 infield singles thus far this year. I think we can agree that Vidro is not exactly a speed burner out there, so it’s safe to say that luck played a huge factor in obtaining those hits. I’d imagine that if you took those 7 hits from Vidro’s ledger, you’d see an average that was lower than Ichiro’s and emptier (no power).
And none of this even factors in the fact that there’s a lot more expected offensive from a DH spot than a CF spot. If your main argument is that Vidro’s stats as a DH are somewhere in the vicinity of your CF’s stats, then you know you’re fighting a losing battle.
Dave-
Would you give Hargrove a lower F or higher F than you would have at this point last year. He is significantly reducing Willie Ballgame’s playing time, isn’t he?
Okay, well, I’m relieved to see that I’m not the only one worried about Ibanez in the field. During a recent game someone asked if it was too soon to go the bullpen. I followed up by asking if he meant going to the bullpen to replace the pitcher or to replace Ibanez. Just about ANYBODY — Sean Green, Sean White, anybody — would be an improvement.
From my point of view, it seems like the keys to the season on offence are going to be Lopez, Betancourt and Ibanez. Lopez and Betancourt are young players with spotty track records in the majors, and how they improve over the season will tell me if the team will go from an average team to a winning team. Ibanez has to show that he hasn’t fallen off the cliff. If he has, its trouble. I feel that Sexson and Beltre will get better, Ichiro should get better, Joh and Guillen might drop off a bit, and Vidro has a chance to really drop off. I’ll say this about Vidro, I think he has been slightly better than a “D” to date, but going forward probably won’t be helping the team much at all. If his batting average drop below .290, he will be hurting the team.
Dave, great point. But you are grading a DH here. If Snelling were the DH on the ballclub instead of Vidro… you couldn’t grade defense. Grade him on running, but not on the fact that he’s a DH. Explain to us more about why Vidro’s grade is so different than Ichiro’s based on offense not defense…because that is not measurable for Vidro here.
Dave, but I AM a biased anti-Bavasi hater.
OK, not really, I don’t hate the guy- but I’ve come to my judgment on his abilities as a GM based on his track record, and it’s not a positive one, so in a sense, Auburn’s correctly characterizing me.
Vidro has more hits than Ichiro and is hitting for a higher average. His SLG and OBS numbers are only slightly lower, yet Ichiro gets a B, and Vidro a D. Ichiro and Vidro both hit at the top of the order? What’s the difference?
OK, let’s take this carefully and iullustrate this for you.
AL hitters as a group, OBP and SLG: .331/.409
Vidro: .345/.372
Ichiro: .354/.414
See how Ichiro’s better than the average AL hitter in BOTH categories, and Vidro…well, isn’t?
Now, let’s look at average AL hitter AT POSITION, since the proper comparison is to compare Ichiro to CFs, Vidro to DHs:
AL CF: .335/.417
So, Ichiro’s a touch UNDER average for power (almost at average, and probably over it if you adjusted for park)…and significantly over for OBP.
AL DH: .353/.443
So Vidro is actually UNDER average for an AL DH. A few points under for getting on base, and WAAAAAAY under for power.
OK, now let’s add in GIDP and stolen bases:
Vidro: O SB, 7 GIDP
Ichiro: 4 SB (with 0 CS), O GIDP
Oh, and Ichiro’s a perennial Gold Glover. Vidro isn’t.
Now do you see why Vidro gets the bad grade and Ichiro doesn’t?
Oh, and btw, Snelling’s day to day… he’s hurt — again.
#48, you’re looking at the ‘runs’ column rather than the ‘batting runs above average’ column (which I assume is what Dave’s talking about).
A DH has no defensive value, so therefore, he gets penalized relative to all players who do have defensive value. We don’t just ignore the fact that he’s unable to play the field in our evaluation of him as a player.
My preferred way of evaluating a player in total is to look at his raw offensive ability (such as runs created, but any other useful measure of offensive value out there will work too), the factor in the positional adjustment, and then factor in his defensive value relative to position.
Here’s the positional adjustment chart for the past 6 years, created by Matthew Rauseo for his Linear Weights project:
1b: -14
2b: +6
SS: +9
3b: +2
CF: +1
LF: -9
RF: -8
DH: -20
I think this adjustment might undervalue CF a little bit, but I haven’t done the research on it that Matthew has, so I’m deferring to him. Either way, it’s not more than a couple of runs.
Seriously people, read the whole thread. If the only job you have is hitting, you SHOULD hit better than someone who plays a key defensive position. Vido has been compared to his peers and shown not only in the lower third, but more costly in obtaining than many stopgap measures employed by other teams this year.
Vidro has created 13 runs this year. Snelling in limited playing time, for two organizations, and playing some defense has created 11.
Re Betancourt vs Lopez: I agree Yuni’s errors are detractions compared to Lopez (8 > zero) — however, he has thus far significantly outperformed J-Lo in the clutch (WPA, clutch, BA/RISP) (small sample size theatre — but this exercise is performance not prediction)and has 2 more Runs Created — so if you give him those as well as (at least) 2 more Runs due to position and range, for +4, and then subtract 4 runs due to his errors — that makes them both a C.
By the way, Snelling has a higher OPS than Vidro for the season.
Good news is PrOPS, (projected OPS based on a hitter’s batted ball data, i.e. trying to account for good/bad luck on line drives hit right at fielders, etc) shows the entire infield has been really unlucky thus far.
Projected OPSs in the infield:
Sexson: .835
Lopez: .781
Yuni: .767
Beltre: .754
I find this to be an accurate analysis.
Since Ichiro, Ibanez, and Sexson will most likely put up better numbers the other 80% of the season it’s safe to say that with Felix Hernandez back the Mariners are going to win the AL West.
EP, some of those facts are really good, but the gold glove comparison just doesn’t hold water. This is a DH. Otherwise you’d be comparing Piazza’s catching as well… c’mon. Designated Hitter. I’ve been waiting for this guy to totally implode all year based on everyone’s opinion of him at the beginning of the season. Frankly, he’s doing a regular job… but he doesn’t have quality DH stats. Say that… and I think everyone would agree. But saying Ichiro got a better grade because he’s a gold glover… p l e a s e. Apples & Oranges.
Dave- 3B is a more valued position over CF? Is that because there are more chances handled by the 3B than a CF? Traditionally, the defensive sprectrum would put CF OVER 3B.(going something like SS/C/2B/CF/3B/RF/LF/1B/DH).
Oh, and where’s C on that chart?
What does Snelling have to do with this discussion?
I can’t believe people are having a peripheral debate over the value of a DESIGNATED HITTER’S defense.
My brain hurts.
Beniitec,
We’re evaluating players as a whole. Notice the discussion of the defensive issues Ibanez and Betancourt have had, and how that’s effecting their rating. Defense counts. This isn’t an analysis of how good of hitters the guys have been, but how good the position players have been in total.
Snelling was traded for our DH who makes 20x what he does. He is an intrisic piece of any discussion regarding Vidro’s total value to the team.
Vidro has been shown to be below average as a DH while making more money than others higher on the list. No apples and oranges there.
Beniitec – Ichiro gets more value over other teams’ centrefielders because he’s one of the best defenders alive. Vidro cannot add extra value with his glove, and so -cannot- boost his grade in the same way Ichiro does. This is not his fault, of course, but it does mean that he has to sink or swim entirely with his bat. And he’s sunk.
Dave’s grades were ‘how much has player helped the Mariners so far this year’. That has to include defense. Dave isn’t taking marks away from Vidro for not playing D, he’s just not going to give him any freebies.
Auburn -
Leaving aside for a moment the non-traditional analysis that typifies this blog, I went to fangraphs to look up DH rankings based on more “traditional” measures. Here is what I found about Jose Vidro (and the grades I would assign using a typical curve):
*12 DH’s currently have enough AB to qualify for the batting title.
*Vidro ranks 2nd in Batting Average (I’d give that an A-)
*Vidro ranks 6th in On-Base Percentage (C+)
*Vidro ranks 11th in Slugging Pct. (D-)
*Vidro ranks 11th in Homers (D-)
*Vidro ranks 11th in RBI’s (D-)
*Vidro is tied for last in doubles (F)
So…that’s an A, a C, 3 D’s and an F. Given that the “A” is based on a large number of infield hits which are unlikely to be sustained given Vidro’s speed, your grade of “B-” is hard to justify. It seems like you have too much emphasis on Average and discount everything else. What am I missing?
BTW…here is the link to the table.
Perhaps one of the USSM keepers can link that?
Dave- 3B is a more valued position over CF? Is that because there are more chances handled by the 3B than a CF? Traditionally, the defensive sprectrum would put CF OVER 3B.(going something like SS/C/2B/CF/3B/RF/LF/1B/DH).
I haven’t looked under the hood of Matthew’s numbers, so there could be a swing of a couple of runs either way for a few spots. It was the easiest access chart I had, though, and it’s pretty close to being accurate.
Catchers aren’t included because we don’t really know how to evaluate catcher defense very well.
EP, some of those facts are really good, but the gold glove comparison just doesn’t hold water. This is a DH. Otherwise you’d be comparing Piazza’s catching as well… c’mon. Designated Hitter. I’ve been waiting for this guy to totally implode all year based on everyone’s opinion of him at the beginning of the season. Frankly, he’s doing a regular job… but he doesn’t have quality DH stats. Say that… and I think everyone would agree. But saying Ichiro got a better grade because he’s a gold glover… p l e a s e. Apples & Oranges.
The point that you’re missing is that Ichiro can ADD to his grade because of his defense at his position. Vidro can’t- ALL the value he has is as a hitter.
It’s pretty simple for me:
- Vidro is a below-average hitter
- Vidro’s a terrible baserunner
- D is a below-average grade given for those two things Vidro does for his team, hit and run the bases
- Ichiro is an ABOVE average hitter
- Ichiro is an EXCELLENT defensive center fielder
- Ichiro is an EXCELLENT baserunner who isn’t being greenlighted much
- B is an above-average grade given for those three things Ichiro does, hit, run the bases and play defense.
How is this in any way unreasonable?
What does Snelling have to do with this discussion?
Because someone was ha-ha’ing over Snelling hitting .246 to Vidro’s .307.
Of course, Snelling out-OBP’s Vidro, .395 to .345.
“What does Snelling have to do with this discussion?”
See 43 & 49. The issue is Vidro is a banjo hitter making well over 7 Million — Snelling (and dozens of others) can and do outhit him — while making peanuts. Vidro’s the worst DH in the league. That’s not pessimism or negativism … that’s just the facts, m’am.
Benitec, you are correct in saying that it’s apples and oranges. What you don’t seem to understand is that in this instance, apples are inherently more valuable than oranges.
Pinky, Snelling is the red herring that Vidro’s defenders pull out when they sense they’re losing the rational argument.
I expect Vidro to start hitting the ball harder in the upcoming months. He’s not used to being a DH and it’s hurting him mentally like it does to so many others that make the transistion.
Right – the move to DH now makes a player worse.
Isn’t that the exact opposite of what we heard all offseason, that moving to DH and getting him out of the infield would save his knees and allow him to return the form of yesteryear?
It’s all worthless crap arguments that have no basis in reality. Jose Vidro has no power because Jose Vidro has no power. That’s not going to change.
Please provide evidence please that transitions to DH hurt hitting.
Thanks in advance.
#46: AQ Says:
Is Player B a catcher and Player A a DH? Because if so, you would be a fool to take player A.
Don’t knock the DH role!! You are crapping on Edgar Martinez’ legacy!! You would give him a D because he doesn’t play defense or have any speed.
This is an outrage.
Uhh, right, USSM was notorious for its Edgar Martinez hatred. It’s not like one of our authors has written many long, awesome columns lobbying for Edgar to make the Hall of Fame or anything.
#82 – Sorry, I should’ve mentioned that they’re both DH’s.
Crikey. I suppose pointing out that starters are inherently more valuable than relievers would be crapping on the legacy of Goose Gossage.
#83 – Dude, are you serious? Are you really comparing Vidro to Edgar?
No one is “knocking” the DH role and no one is insulting Edgar. That’s quite a conclusion that you’ve jumped to.
I’m not even going to cite stats that put Edgar and Vidro side-by-side, because it’s silly to even compare the two.
#83: Edgar hit for both average and power, which would raise his grade, as those are the two things a DH needs to do. If Vidro was hitting at his current clip, but some of those hits were for extra bases rather than just bases-empty singles, he’d get a higher grade.
I expect Vidro to start hitting the ball harder in the upcoming months. He’s not used to being a DH and it’s hurting him mentally like it does to so many others that make the transistion.
I expect Vidro to invent a perpetual motion machine in the months to come, since he’ll have a lot of spare time now that he’s not playing the field.
Seriously? Your statement has only slightly more to back it up than mine. I don’t take arguments based on vague feelings without any supporting evidence… though you’re probably qualified to be a Mariner broadcaster or manager.
I read 83 as a joke.
I’m not a statistician or a sabermetrician, but I know that your stats here are based on helping the team offensively this far through the year. It is IMPOSSIBLE for VIDRO to ever help in the outfield is the point I was making and you’re basing your grading on OFFENSE according to the original post. Besides that, it’s just plain stupid to judge a DH on defense or compare him to someone who contributes defensively. So don’t grade the guy on that. You’re saying that because he can’t be a gold glover, he can never help the team. In any case, I agree with most of your other points. The guy can’t run, or steal, and he hasn’t been hitting for power frequently enough.
The DH role is sacred in Mariners lore and should never be talked about in a bad light.
You will all drop this discussion immediately or continue crapping on a spectacular legacy.
Speaking for Edgar, he demands an immediate apology.
Don’t knock the DH role!! You are crapping on Edgar Martinez’ legacy!! You would give him a D because he doesn’t play defense or have any speed.
This is an outrage.
Now you’re just trolling.
/plonk
Look up “reductio ad absurdum”.
It is IMPOSSIBLE for VIDRO to ever help in the outfield is the point I was making and you’re basing your grading on OFFENSE according to the original post.
You might want to try re-reading the post. Nowhere does it ever mention grading the players on only their offensive abilities. The term defense appears frequently throughout the post.
Basically, you’re just wrong.
#91 – I think the point is that a DH is inherently less valuable than, say, a CF because of the fact that they don’t play defense. As such, a DH needs to perform far better than a CF to make up for the lack of defensive contribution. Edgar was able to more than make up for his lack of defensive contribution by hitting for average and power, while getting on base at a great clip. Vidro? He has one out of 3.
88 – you want evidence then go talk to Raul Ibanez. He never wants to be a DH because it’s a mental transition that no player ever wants to make.
They feel like they’re helping the team more by being on the field and making defensive plays to help the team and not being benchwarmers.
I listen when players speak, and most feel this way. I could look up stats for the first few months of a players DH transistion, but I’m not going to.
Just for fun … couldn’t help myself….
BA OBP Slug OPS
Vidro -’07 .307 .345 .372 .717
Gar-career as DH .314 .428 .532 .960
your stats here are based on helping the team offensively
Beniitec, read where Dave says “while playing a quality defensive center field” in Ichiro’s grade comment.
You are fundamentally misunderstanding his post, apparently based on misreading it.
Defense counts for a grade while playing CF. It doesn’t count while playing DH. Thanks for playing.
#92 – Don’t drink and post, please.
Beniitec,
No one graded Vidro on defense. What was said was that if Player A and Player B have equal offensive statistics. But Player A plays the field and Player B is a DH, then Player A > Player B.
Thanks for the link to the BP article on Edgar.
I have read that in the past and rereading it was to relive some great Mariner moments.
Edgar is the single reason I got my wife to enjoy baseball. Everything about him made her a mad mad Mariner’s fan and I owe him eternal thanks for that, let alone his career as an M.
#97 – Yes, there may be some adjustment that a player needs to make when they become a DH. But that adjustment isn’t magically going to make Vidro slug at .500 clip when he hasn’t done that since 2000. Sorry, you can wish it to happen all you want, but it’s not going to end up that way.
I could look up stats for the first few months of a players DH transistion, but I’m not going to.
So there’s really no reason at all for anyone to listen to what you say, since you either believe your opinion so little that minimal effort isn’t worth it to back it, or… well, the alternate case is even worse.
Let me know when you have some evidence. k tnx
Since this is Ichiro’s contract year, any chance he’s being more risk-averse with his running game in an attempt to keep his perfect streak going?
If Ichiro has a solid year with the bat (for him), and has an uncaught stolen base streak reaching back almost 2 full seasons, some team will pay him $2 billion.
Here’s something else to think about: How much more valuable is a player who DHs to his team if he CAN occasionally take the field? We’re judging players here, not positions. Vidro, even if he were better offensively, still limits his team because of what he can’t do in any other role. And the reason we don’t knock, say, David Ortiz for this is because his offense is so above and beyond across the board that he makes up for his lack of positional versatility.
With Vidro, it’s not just that he’s a poor hitter relative to his team and his position. It’s that he can’t do anything else, either.
#91: I just think the original post was mis-phrased: These seem to be grades of position (offensive) players (including DH) as opposed to pitchers; not strictly grades of each players offence, but rather each players overall contribution to the team, in consort with league averages for each position.
#97: Just because Ibanez may feel that way doesn’t mean he’s right. And just because the Mariners listen to him doesn’t mean they’re right, either. That’s the point … we have no shortage of evidence that they’re both wrong.
We were all wrong about Ibanez for his first few years as a Mariner because we made reasonable — but unfulfilled — projections about how he would do based on PAST seasons, his age and his comparables.
We’re right about Ibanez this time around because we’re make evaluations based on what he’s doing in real time.
And even if you reject statistics, fine. Just watch him play left field. And watch his opposite number in left. How can you watch him for a series — any series — and not conclude that he isn’t killing the team? He has no range, and he makes that lack of range worse with circuitous routes to the ball. His arm could be generously described as average at best. Many other left fielders would turn the singles and doubles hit around Ibanez into outs. When you have as big a pitch-to-contact, flyball-prone staff as the Mariners do, Ibanez’s shortcomings make a HUGE difference.
And that’s not stats. That’s just watching baseball games.
Yes, there may be some adjustment that a player needs to make when they become a DH.
There really isn’t a lot of actual evidence for this, BTW. There are players who underperform as DHs (Reggie Jackson)… and there are some who perform well as DHs (Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield). There’s also some fairly severe biases you have to account for (since older players are generally the ones shifted to DH, there’s age-related decline to account for independent of any position switch).
But here’s something to consider:
AL DHs, 2006: .265/.350/.471/.821
AL 1B, 2006: .279/.351/.467/.818
AL LF, 2006: .280/.347/.450/.797
Funny, innit, how the DH’s hit as well as 1B and BETTER than LF, when it’s a “it’s a mental transition that no player ever wants to make”?
Vidro’s hitting .306, stop picking on him just because he got traded for Doyle. I would’ve like to have had Doyle too in my lineup because of how much of a bargain he is, but until Turbo goes on his first big slump, just leave him alone. At least unlike Everett, Broussard, and Perez last year, you can usually count on this guy to have 1 or 2 hits a ball game.
I think I’d give him about a B- at this point, he could be hitting into less double plays and such, but for the MOST PART, he seems to be doing his job.
You’ll notice that Doyle is never mentioned in the post.
Instead of creating a strawman argument and leaning on batting average as the crux of your offensive evaluation, you could try to understand what I actually said.
97: Of course players hate DHing. They want to play the field. Of course they say it’s harder to hit: no one wants to do it, and the experience is bound to feel different, sitting on the bench all the time. When you dislike what you’re doing, you’re bound to concentrate on the negatives. That doesn’t mean that it is in fact harder to hit as a DH, or that players decline when moving into the role. If the effect is real, it is measurable.
In any case, Vidro is hitting no worse than he was expected to. If moving into the role hurt his hitting, why isn’t he doing worse? Oh wait, he was supposed to be a better hitter than he showed last year, right? So if in fact he’s the same lousy hitter he was, it’s not because he’s doing exactly what rational people predicted (a little better, if anything), it’s because he’s hurt by the move to DH.
Does keeping your fingers in your ears make your voice sound more resonant or something?
Vidro’s hitting .306, stop picking on him just because he got traded for Doyle.
Batting average is not a good judge of offensive ability compared to other statistics. To put it another way, Juan Pierre (lifetime BA: .302) is not a better player than Reggie Jackson (lifetime BA: .262) because his bating average is 40 points higher.
I think I’d give him about a B- at this point, he could be hitting into less double plays and such, but for the MOST PART, he seems to be doing his job.
No, he isn’t, and for the MOST PART, you seem to be missing the points being made in this thread.
#110: For the 9,000th time, batting average tells us almost nothing about a player’s actual offensive value. Offense is made up of two components — getting on base and advancing baserunners. Vidro does both poorly, relative to his team, to his position and to his league, as we’ve demonstrated over and over and over.
His .306 average is purely an illusion.
OK I did a few minutes of research here is what I found, and proves that I am right. I am also doing this to humor you, so feel special. My time is valuable. I’m sure if I did a few more minutes of research I’d find more evidence, but this is enough to prove my point.
Mike Piazza’s career OPS is .927 and this year it’s .718. He also only has 1 home run in 26 games, which is well below his career averages.
Jose Vidro’s career OPS is .818 and right now it’s .717.
There you go. Next subject please.
Regarding the transition to DH.
Let’s also keep in mind that for some reason, teams tend to move aging players to DH. These are players who would likely see a drop in hitting cabability anyway. The supposed ‘drop’ cannot be directly linked to anything. Correlation does not imply causation.
I would tend to believe the drop is due to declining skills over the mental aspect of being a DH.
#116 Jack Cust has like a billion home runs after he usually played outfield in Portland. Therefore, not only does moving to DH make you better, but it’s actually easier to hit in the bigs than it is in AAA.
It’s times like these I’m glad no one actually reads what I write.
#116, what you’re seeing is two hitters which is a small sample any way, who used to be good hitters, who aren’t good anymore. They’re DH’s because they aren’t good enough to play the field anymore, and were good enough at one time for teams to take a flyer on.
116.
Best. post. ever.
Piazza is in a new (better) league. Piazza is old. Piazza plays in an extreme pitcher’s park. I have an A’s friend and I predicted Piazza would not live up to the lofty predictions given to him by many. This prediction was not due to him switching to DH or my disdain for Oakland, but rather for the above reasons. You can apply those exact same reasons to Vidro.
I thought the first couple comments you made were sarcastic and making fun of others, I guess not.
Here’s something I don’t understand: the lovers of traditional statistics keep saying that Vidro’s hitting .306. But if you’re making a big deal about batting average, shouldn’t you be making a big deal about home runs and RBIs, too?
So Vidro has 2 home runs. That would give him 10 for the year at this pace. He has 9 RBIs. That would give him 45 for the year.
.306 – 10 – 45. From your DH. Your number 3 hitter. That’s supposed to be acceptable?
The subject of DH transition is closed.
I have proved my point and there isn othing more to say
[thread closed]
#116 – So, would you argue that both Vidro and Piazza would be hitting better if they were also playing in the field? This would seemingly eliminate that “transition to DH” concern that you stated previously. I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on this.
#116: So Jose Vidro would hit better if the Mariners would play him in the field?
The obvious flaw in your logic is that that both Piazza and Vidro were moved to DH during across-the-board decline phases in their careers. They’re not hitting worse because they’re DHs; they’re hitting worse because they’re older and not as good as they used to be.
This is the folly of teams using DH as a dark corner in which to hide hitters who are on the downslide. There are born pure hitters who come up early with no defensive value, and DHing them maximizes their strengths during the best years of their careers while minimizing their weaknesses.
I’d love, for example, to see the Royals show the nutsack to make Billy Butler a career DH.
[mods use square brackets]
#122 – You can’t learn if you’re not willing to open your mind, my friend. If you choose not to do that, it is you who will miss out I guess.
120: I’m sure that Mariners_Rule_Uguys_Suk is in fact joking, by his own lights, in his last few posts. He imagines, I think, that his sarcasm is as withering as his analysis is pointed. He just may be right about that.
#125: Ibanez’s feelings are not valid or relevant. Players are notoriously poor judges of their own skills — they can rarely see past their own wishcasting. The proof is that very few players voluntarily retire while they’re still helping their teams. Most drag out their decline phases out of denial, greed or pure narcissism.
128 – what ball players feel effects their abilities.
Part of the game is mental, and this is the part of the game I’m pointing out here.
Plus, don’t make all baseball players out to be villians and greedy narcissists. That is mean, and if any posters here are former ball players they would strike you down with the wrath of God.
[quote]Since we’re at the 20 percent mile marker and it’s an off day (don’t get too used to these), I figure its time for an early season report card. Let’s see who has been helping the team the most through the first stretch of the year. Here’s the offense – we’ll do the pitching in another post later today.[/quote]
You guys are great. Yes, you mention defense later in the post in the player posts. However, in your original statement above, you say, here’s the offense. Compare the guy to other DH’s this season and past seasons yes, compare Vidro to someone who had an MVP type season at DH, yes. Giving the guy a lower grade based on his lack of defensive contribution, just plain dumb. Then you’re saying every DH the M’s ever have, no matter how great can never contribute top letter grades, because of his defensive contribution. It still doesn’t fly with me, basically. Convince me yes. So far, you haven’t. And yes, I can read. Care to post a legend on HOW you gave out grades? That would clarify quite a bit. You are obviously basing your grades on a scale, but aren’t giving us the scale. I know a bit about math too. Y si quieres platicar en español podemos hacer eso tambien. Porque para mi, no se me dificulta. Quit insulting people based on their posts and try to answer the questions so that we understand what you are saying and how you are grading.
plz provide evidence that DH transitions hurt hitting please k thanks in advance
Fine, I’ll replace the word “offense” with “position players”, if that helps you understand the post. Interestingly, you’re the only one who didn’t grasp the concept of defense being included in the evaluation.
Where’s Dave arguing that defense entered into Vidro’s grade? Vidro’s writeup is clear, he’s being graded compared to other DHs.
The defense argument only comes up in “why is Vidro graded lower than Ichiro” which invokes positional comparisons.
Just for humor, I looked up the Mariner’s hitters in my Yahoo fantasy league to get a sense of how they compared to other players. This is in no way intended to be deep in-depth research but I was curious to see how fantasy stats compared to Dave’s grades.
The league credits SB and uses OPB/SLG instead of BA. Since there are 32 teams in baseball, I assigned the following grades based on where a player ranks compared to others playing the same position. 1-7 = A, 8-14 = B, 15-20 = C, 21-26 = D, 27-32 = F.
M’s player (Dave’s in parens):
C = B- (A)
1st = F (F)
2nd = C- (C)
3rd = B- (C)
SS = D+ (D)
LF = C- (F)
CF = D+ (B)(Yahoo rankings have always hated Ichiro)
RF = D+ (A)
DH = F (D)(Our league doesn’t have a DH position so I compared Vidro to batters at each position. The only group of position players he ranking in the top 25 of was catchers. Even with his .300 BA and only looking at offense, Vidro has been poor compared to his peers.)
I have already cited specific examples. I said it only hurts hitters in the first few months of the transition. I said nothing beyond that. Stats of that nature would be very hard to find, in any event. So I have listed examples from this year.
The main problem I have with Vidro is his Avg with RISP is only .171. That contributed to his extremely low RBI numbers. He was hitting at the 3 spot for most of these 33 games. He was expected to drive in runs. 7 GIDP also contributed to a lot of outs. He’s basically creating more outs than anybody on this team, except Sexson.
He’s not Everett bad, yet. But let’s face it, if you take away half of his in-field hits, he would be batting around 280. That would make him Everett bad in turns of OPS. And he’s more expensive than Everett, plus costing us 2 players.
But I don’t think he’s hopeless. As bad as he was in Washington the last couple years, 35.1% of his hits were XB hits in 05, and 25.4% of hits were XB hits in 06. For his career it’s 33%. And this year, it’s 11.9%. So basically, he’s hitting 1/3 as often for XB as he’s in his career. While I believe his power has declined, especially in Safeco, I don’t believe he’s declined that much. If he can get that 11.9% XB hits to 17%, his slugging % would be in the 410 range.
I think he had a real terrible spell in the beginning of the yeay, and that was why he decided to hit for average and give up hitting for power. That’s why you see the empty average. I still think he can get to 17% XB and that would put his OPS at around 750 – 760.
By the way, his salary is 8M a year, but the M’s are only paying 6M of it. And they can write him off the books after 08 by declining to pick up his 09 option. For a 110M payroll team, I don’t think that’s that big of a deal.
128 – what ball players feel effects their abilities.
Part of the game is mental, and this is the part of the game I’m pointing out here.
What are your qualifications for judging the mental part of the game? Are you Vidro’s psychiatrist? If so, did you know that psychiatrists can be successfully sued for malpractice?
Plus, don’t make all baseball players out to be villians and greedy narcissists. That is mean, and if any posters here are former ball players they would strike you down with the wrath of God.
As a lifelong Cubs fan, I’m much more qualified than you to discuss the Wrath O’ God.
Benitec, no doubt you can read fni, but you aren’t listening. That’s not meant to be insulting. Your objections have been answered in straightforward language in a few different ways, and you keep avoiding those points and setting up straw men (“you’re saying every DH the M’s ever have, no matter how great can never contribute top letter grades”). With respect, it doesn’t appear that you want to acknowledge the reasons Dave and others are giving.
Boiling it down to basics: the standards for hitting at DH are different than the standards at (say) center field. Years and years of statistics demonstrate this. Because the standard is higher at DH, Vidro’s contribution this year has been bad. This can be shown (and has been) just by comparing him to the other DHs in the league. Now, someone objected that Ichiro got a much better grade than Vidro despite being only somewhat better offensively. This is because the standard for offense at center field is lower.
In short, Ichiro being a lot more valuable as a hitter is directly tied to his playing a more difficult defensiv position. When analyzing Vidro’s contribution, it is affected by the fact that he doesn’t play defense, because among all the players who don’t play defense, the standard for hitting is higher.
It’s not true that Vidro can’t get a top grade as a DH. But it is true that to get a top grade, he would have to be one of the better hitters in the league. And he isn’t even an average hitter; so that makes him considerably below average as a hitter.
“read fni” was supposed to be “read fine”. Sigh.
Comparing two DH’s through first month+ of season:
Vidro, 2007: .307/.358/.376- First 24 games
X, 1995: .354/.436/.604- First 27 games
Guess who player X is.
Hey, looky, it’s stats from Not This Year!
Oh, and I raise Carl Everett.
Carl Everett, 2004:
In NL as not-DH: .252/.319/.378
In AL as brand new fulltime DH after trade from NL: .266/.320/.422
http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/evereca01.shtml
Thanks for playing.
#138 I think you meant to say, “And he isn’t even an average hitter; so that makes him considerably below average as a designated hitter.”
Raul as full-time DH (2005)
G R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
162 92 172 32 89 71 99 .280 .355 .436 111
Raul back to LF (2006)
G R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+
159 103 181 33 123 65 115 .289 .353 .516 128
as a DH he walked more (which raised his OBP), as an outfielder he hit one more HR (which improved his SLG) & struck out more … not a huge difference in his numbers.
141: Yes, thank you.
142 – Again! I said IN THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF BEING A DH.
Find those stats and prove me wrong.
Good points EP. Yes, Edgar in the impossible 1995 season. And thanks for the change Dave. I’d still like to see the grading scale that you are basing the grades off of. I find it intriguing. I know it’s a bit difficult to come up with one…but a scale we can throw any player at any time, based on set statistical ranges that we can toss current stats into and give them a grade would be something good. Sounds like you’re doing a lot of number crunching…comparing OPS, OPB, SLG, etc. For scraps, below average is C- or D+ last time I checked if C is average. Well, the last time I was graded. D is very below average and F is failing.
145: But Vidro is in fact “very below average” when compared to other DHs, both by the historical standards of DHs and this year.
Find those stats and prove me wrong.
Um, no.
You made the statement. YOU provide the support.
(Please note; the support you cite is pathetically inadequate. How about a more comprehensive study? It’s YOUR statement. YOU do the work to support it).
#130: They are grading players WHO MAKE AN OFFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION (as opposed to pitchers, who ONLY make defensive contributions in the AL), not grading only offense. Players’ overall contributions to the team, encompassing both their offensive AND defensive qualities, are factored together to create a mean grade FOR THE POSITION. If a DH has no defensive contribution, it does not affect his grade as a DH, because DHs in general do not make defensive contributions. A DH who only hits singles, does not score runs, and does not drive in runs should be considered a below-average because he doesn’t make any substantial contributions to the team as a whole. A position player who does all the same things but also plays Gold Glove defense can be edged up to above average because he is taking runs away from opposing teams. A DH who is hitting doubles, scoring runs and racking up RBIs? That DH would get an A, because that is what a DH is supposed to be doing.
I agree the original post could be poorly worded; for precision it should read something like “Here are the offensive players (or ‘Here are the position players’) graded on their overall performance, both defensively and offensively – we’ll do the pitching in another post…” But that’s just semantics.
If you don’t believe my statement then prove me wrong. It’s as simple as that.
I’m right, and shouldn’t be questioned.
145.
If you’ll notice, there are no +s or -s in Dave’s grades. Probably because grading on the roster on a scale of 5 possible grades is much quicker and less nitpicky than grading on a scale of 13.
If you don’t believe my statement then prove me wrong.
No. Not how it’s done.
It’s as simple as that.
Yes, it is.
HILARIOUS… I’m waiting to hear…nana nana nana…my stats are more accurate than yours.
144: Before I actually waste time trying to dig out such stats, can you define for me EXACTLY what stats you want? I don’t want to come back with stats that prove you wrong yet again only to have you say, “No, no, I meant only stats covering April 2 through May 13 for a player moving to DH from the Washington Nationals.” So… what should I base this research on? First 30 games as a DH? Something else?
Mariners_World_Series_Bound is the worst commenter ever at trolling in their first month.
If you don’t believe me, you go do the legwork to prove me wrong, because while I know I’m 10,000% smarter than you, I can’t be bothered to prove how infintely larger my brain is than yours.
In the end, though, I’m right, and those who question me hate America and hate freedom.
Well, I’ve cited 2 more examples than you have. So if you want to have an intelligent debate then you should contribute something concrete to the evidence.
Okay, this thread is officially closed. Please don’t feed the trolls.
M_W_S_B, stop trolling.