Ichiro Being Ichiro
Jon Saraceno does a piece on Ichiro in the USA Today. It’s mostly about whether he wants to come back to Seattle or not, and the quotes honestly aren’t that positive. But when it veers away from his contract situation, there’s some really funny stuff. Such as:
On performance-enhancing drugs: “When you take steroids, it’s not as if wings grow out of your back, and you start flying all over the place and stealing home runs (from hitters). The word ‘cheating’ doesn’t apply for me regarding steroids.”
Tiger Woods’ athleticism: “Tiger is a great golfer, but … when you say athlete, I think of Carl Lewis. When you talk about (golfers or race-car drivers), I don’t want to see them run. It’s the same if you were to meet a beautiful girl and go bowling. If she’s an ugly bowler, you are going to be disappointed.”
He’s right about not wanting to see Tiger Woods run. I’m not so sure I care if a beautiful girl can bowl or not, however.
I’ve heard Tiger Woods was a track star in high school, going sub-11 seconds in the 100m. Thats faster than 95% of baseball players and probably faster than Ichiro was at that age.
Bowling is my “go to” first date with a girl I am really interested in. Her score is not important.
You don’t have to be a great athlete to be a great golfer, but Tiger is an athlete.
I always wonder when it is Ichiro’s words coming through the Ken Barron filter — I don’t have a sense of how accurate he is — does the Japanese word Ichiro used really mean ‘touchy’?
I think Hargrove’s quote was the most jaw-dropping in the article. His wife is probably smacking him around as we speak…! I think he could have picked a much better metaphor…
hjw
He didn’t say anything that makes me more or less optimistic about him staying.
But since when is he serious about pitching after he turns 40?!!
well, he was probably joking (he has before a) but it doesn’t seem as though Saraceno caught it.
I’d like Ichiro to stay.
However — and maybe, Dave, you can provide some insight — how should the Mariners manage the progress of Adam Jones this year, assuming that Ichiro is here through the end of the season? And say Ichiro signs a whopping contract. What should the team do with Jones? Is he really worth keeping (would they restructure the outfield next year to make a place for him), or is he trade bait?
Seriously, if a woman can’t bowl, what does she have to offer?
Well, the M’s aren’t exactly set in their outfield going forward whether Ichiro re-signs or not. Guillen’s only on a one year deal, and he may be looking for multiyear security after a successful rebound season. Ibanez looks basically done as a player, and certainly shouldn’t be manning the outfield anymore.
So, Ichiro or no Ichiro, there’s room for Adam Jones on this team next year.
Ichiro is one of the funniest dudes on the planet.
ah, Dick Fein is on his ‘Ichiro isn’t a ‘superstar’ because the numbers just don’t say he is’ ramble …
Oh, and people who are asserting Ichiro might not be worthy of being resigned because he’s a mediocre offensive CF, please take note of Ichiro’s current numbers:
.312/.375/.435
Ichiro’s career numbers:
.330/.376/.437
League average OBP for a CF in the AL so far this year is .335, league SLG for CFs is .417. Word has it Ichiro runs the bases well and can play a bit of defense, too.
“When people get placed upon a pedestal — when they start chasing after that person on the pedestal — they become mannequin-like. People striving for approval from others become phony. You should seek approval from yourself.”
Think A-Rod is listening?
My favorite quote?:
“We have a saying in Japan: ‘Your main dish and dessert go to different stomachs,’ ” he says. “We have a saying in Japan: ‘Your main dish and dessert go to different stomachs,’ ” he says.â€
At least I’d be able to keep up at the dinner table.
10 – Dave: I fear the FO doesn’t have your *clarity of thought* re: Raul Ibanez. Bah. I just wrote a bunch of questions for you on roster construction, but this ain’t the time or place.
Suffice it to say, Ichiro is the one player my kids get excited about. He’s lived up to the hype, which is more than you can say for the dozens of team saviors that have trotted into this city and limped away or bailed out. He’s the most intriguing personality in Seattle sports right now.
It’s going to be painful hearing the speculation about where he’ll end up next year.
But Barry Bonds would probably completely agree with the Ichiro quote. A balanced person strives to please both others and themself. You don’t want to worry about the opinions of jerks, but you want to be careful not to become one yourself, too.
I would take a beautiful woman who can’t bowl 12 days a week.
Depends. Can she play golf?
Dave, is that one 93 mph fastball down the pike Raul didn’t hit something you’ve seen several times recently? What other indications are you seeing that indicate Raul is finished?
It’s amusing how Ichiro disses the athleticism of golfers and race drivers. Sort of the same way football and basketball players diss the athleticism of baseball players.
Ralph: Isn’t it more important that she likes Baseball?
Dave, is that one 93 mph fastball down the pike Raul didn’t hit something you’ve seen several times recently? What other indications are you seeing that indicate Raul is finished?
It looks to me that Raul has made some compensatory adjustments at the plate, because I think he understands his bat is slowing down. His normal swing is shorter than it has been in past years, and he’s being more aggressive earlier in the count.
Last year, he settled into a more traditional power hitter approach, working the count (relative to most Mariner hitters, anyway) and letting it fly when he got a fastball on the inner half. He was making a concerted effort to pull the ball over the right field wall.
This year, he’s not usually taking that kind of swing. He’s attacking marginal pitches early in the count with a contact/line drive swing and not attempting to pull the ball nearly as much.
The fastball he swung through last night was one of last year’s swings. He rotated his hips, put a bit of an uppercut into it, and tried to yank the ball over the wall. And he missed. He didn’t get the bat through the zone quickly enough and the ball was in the glove by the time he finished his swing.
Watching Ibanez and Bobby Abreu the last few weeks was kind of eery, because they look like the same guy right now. Both know that the batspeed that allowed them to turn on inside fastballs is basically gone, and they’ve adjusted their swings accordingly. It’s just not working for either of them.
I think both will improve as the season goes on, as they’re both running HR/FB rates of 2.5%, which is unsustainably low even for a guy whose power has dried up, but neither guy is going to return to previous form. And since Ibanez wasn’t a great player even at his peak, his fall from that good player perch is likely to make him a liability. The bat’s not going to be good enough to DH, and he just doesn’t have the range to cover left field in Safeco anymore.
Well that’s just dandy: Next season, the Ms will have in excess of 10 Million tied up in two guys that don’t hit well enough to DH.
Here’s hoping that Raul proves you wrong once again.
Well that’s just dandy: Next season, the Ms will have in excess of 10 Million tied up in two guys that don’t hit well enough to DH.
Here’s hoping that Raul proves you wrong once again.
It’s better than that, though, because they could end up with season stats that have .270-.280 empty batting average, which will just tempt the Mariners to keep playing them until they go from being bad to complete, Spiezio/Everettesque uselessness.
Love Ichiro, the guy always cracks me up. I enjoy his unique style. But 15-20 million a year?
Dave do you want Ichiro for say a four year $60 million dollar contract? or would you rather have A. Jones or Reed in Center field and spend that 15 million a year on a pitcher.
for example would you rather have Carlos Zambrano and Adam Jones. Or Ichiro and Ho-Ram?
It’s such a tough call since Ichiro is so cool and means a lot to this team.
We’re always hoping Raul proves Dave wrong. In fact, we’re always hoping the players prove every negative projection wrong. That’s why what we practice here isn’t pessimissm, even if it’s often mistaken for that. It’s optimism of the most hopeless sort, because it’s done in the face of calculated, near-certain dread.
As a slightly sobering thought, Ibanez has been pretty thoroughly outhit by Turbo so far this season, further confirming your claims that he wouldn’t be an adequate DH.
Dave do you want Ichiro for say a four year $60 million dollar contract?
4 years, $60 million for Ichiro would be an absolute steal. I can’t see Ichiro signing for that. If he only wants 4 years, I’m betting the price is $80+ million.
or would you rather have A. Jones or Reed in Center field and spend that 15 million a year on a pitcher.
I’m pretty much against signing any big time free agent pitchers to long term deals. The return on investment is horrible.
for example would you rather have Carlos Zambrano and Adam Jones. Or Ichiro and Ho-Ram?
That’s an easy call for Ichiro. Zambrano has been terrible this year, and with the workload he’s sustained in his career, you’d have to be nuts to commit to him for beyond 3 or 4 years. Whoever gives him the standard ridiculous pitcher contract of the offseason is going to seriously regret it.
That is very well put, and warrants being quoted just to point that out.
I would argue that Michael Shumacher has been as successful a racer as he has been because he is dedicated to being an athlete. Driving a modern F1 race car is a brutal, brutal task which calls for lightning reflexes and incredible endurance.
And I’d agree, but I would never call a NASCAR driver an athlete.
Thanks for the reply Dave. So re-sign Ichiro at all costs. I can live with that!
So if we are out of the race at the trade deadline do we trade Ichiro?
Also if it is around the trade deadline and it appears Ichiro won’t re-sign with the M’s and were in the race, do we keep or trade Ichiro.
What would you think of a Ichiro for Lester and Crisp type deal.
Well I hope we keep Ichiro. just thinking though of situations that very well might come up. Thanks for the time.
Raul only had 3 homers as of mid-May last year. Is there any hope that his power stroke is something the season has to warm up for, like Beltre and Sexson’s batting averages?
Thanks for the reply Dave. So re-sign Ichiro at all costs. I can live with that!
I didn’t say that. There’s always a line where retaining a player ceases to be a good idea. If the Dodgers offer him 10/200 and he wants the M’s to match, you have to let him go.
So if we are out of the race at the trade deadline do we trade Ichiro?
Probably not. I don’t think the team even wants to try to withstand the PR flack they would take by actively dealing him. They can turn the fanbase on him if he leaves of his own will, like they did with A-Rod, but if they trade him, it’s on them.
What would you think of a Ichiro for Lester and Crisp type deal.
The Red Sox have a kid named Jacoby Ellsbury who has the same basic skillset and is nearly major league ready.
Raul only had 3 homers as of mid-May last year. Is there any hope that his power stroke is something the season has to warm up for, like Beltre and Sexson’s batting averages?
Last year, Ibanez hit .301/.345/.505 in April. Yes, he only had 3 home runs through the first month, but 12 of his 31 hits were extra base knocks. He was driving the ball with consistency, even if it wasn’t always clearing the wall.
This year, 9 of his 37 hits are for extra bases. That’s middle-infielder territory. He’s just not hitting the ball hard with any kind of regularity.
I would give up following baseball for a beautiful woman.
In fact, I have.
And yet here you are.
Yeah, she gave up on me. One difference between baseball and a beautiful woman: baseball will always take you back.
Yeah I can definatly see the possible mess to the fan base and distraction to the team of trying to trade ichiro at the trade deadline.
So what would you like to see as far as numbers and years for re-signing Ichiro to the M’s. Obviously It would have to satisfy Ichiro and the respect level.
As of today, I think my line is probably 5/100. Anything less than that, I sign him. Anything more than that, I probably let him go. Of course, how he performs the rest of the season factors into the decision as well.
Speaking of Ichiro having “wings grow out of your back, and you start flying all over the place and stealing home runs (from hitters)” — Ichiro is apparently capable of doing exactly that… at least in this video game (look carefully just in front of the animated scoreboard). He looks pretty good at the plate, too.
Since USSM labs now has a Wii, I expect to see a review when the game is released.
“I don’t think the team even wants to try to withstand the PR flack they would take by actively dealing him (Ichiro). They can turn the fanbase on him if he leaves of his own will, like they did with A-Rod, but if they trade him, it’s on them.”
No truer words have ever been spoken. And the local media will be willing accomplices in this PR strategy, as they were/are with A-Rod. You can write this script now.
I still hope that Ichiro is dealt. Every interview of his that I have read seems to scream: “I’m leaving!”
In this day and age, it is not terribly difficult to put a contender on the field. Just ask Dave Dombrowski.
I’m not going to speculate as to the package we could get for Ichiro, but I’d do Lester/Ellsbury for Ichiro in a heartbeat.
So my question is: If the M’s are 7+ games out at the deadline, what are the chances of an Ichiro deal going through?
Dave,
How much of Ichiro’s upcoming contract would you is attributed to his marketability and ability to put butts in seats?
I really wouldn’t be rooting for the M’s to trade their best position player based on the comments he tells the media, especially considering they go through a translator.
Well it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
It would be tough to sink 1/5th of the pay-roll into anyone one player, but it would also be good for the franchise/fan base to see Ichiro in an M’s unfiorm for 5 more years.
I wonder how much Andrew Jones gets will get also.
Well lets Pound John Lackey tonight!! Go M’s!
Well that’s just dandy: Next season, the Ms will have in excess of 10 Million tied up in two guys that don’t hit well enough to DH.
Could be three of those tying up almost $30M, actually. Turbo, Raul, and Richie, earning $8.5M, $14M, and $5.5M respectively. That could be a real anchor around the GM’s neck.
I had those salaries in the wrong order, of course.
Dave,
How much of Ichiro’s upcoming contract would you is attributed to his marketability and ability to put butts in seats?
A little bit. It’s actually more the negative effect on the team’s marketability if he leaves that bothers me. The M’s are already having problems attracting fans and free agents to the Northwest, and tossing Ichiro off the ship isn’t going to make that sales pitch any easier. With the way the organization has poorly handled the exits of Johnson/Griffey/Rodriguez, they really need to do right by their superstar one of these days.
But, even ignoring all that stuff, Ichiro is a tremendous player, a true 5-7 win guy that comes with as little injury risk of any player in baseball. He’s worth $20 million a year for what he does on the field.
In essence, Dave, it sounds like you’re saying that in the case of Ichiro, the team would rather risk getting worse than risk pissing off fans.
I wish Ichiro would make it clear he wanted out, the way Griffey and Johnson did. Then the team would trade him, we’d get something decent in return, the fan base would forgive Ichiro, and everyone would end up happy, more or less.
In essence, Dave, it sounds like you’re saying that in the case of Ichiro, the team would rather risk getting worse than risk pissing off fans.
Keeping Ichiro does not make the team worse. Losing Ichiro makes the team worse.
Ibanez’ $5.5 M through 2008 really isn’t that big of a problem compared to Vidro and Sexson. And at least they’re all only signed through 2008.
Slipped by more Daveness. I sure don’t want Ichiro to be traded if he wants to stay.
If — if — Ichiro is leaving regardless, then keeping him will make the team worse when he leaves and they get nothing.
Is there a way we can win enough to keep Ichiro, but not win enough that it ensures a prolonged stay for Bavasi and Hargrove?
If — if — Ichiro is leaving regardless, then keeping him will make the team worse when he leaves and they get nothing.
They wouldn’t get nothing. They’d clear $12 million in salary off the books and get a pair of high draft choices.
No Ichiro! will be bad for the M’s in many, many ways.
1. TV contracts in Japan will stop.
2. Ichrio!
3. Outfield has no stability for next year at this moment.
4. Ichiro!
5. Japanese tourists will stop spending in the Team stores.
6. ICHIRO!!!!
7. Who else is going to get 200+ hits?
56: I hadn’t thought of that. Do you think that’s enough compensation to take the chance of trying to sign him? I’m assuming you think the chance of being able to re-sign him is considerably higher than zero.
If I thought the team’s chances of re-signing him were zero, it’d be a different story. I think the team owes it to the fanbase to make a legitimate effort to keep Ichiro around, and dealing him in July does not constitute a legitimate effort.
Its not my intention to be the mouth of doom but….
I really think our teams performance this year is crucial in signing Ichiro!
If we don’t make the playoffs I don’t think we’ll see him in a mariner uniform next year. And even if we do I don’t think are odds are better than 50%.
A little bit. It’s actually more the negative effect on the team’s marketability if he leaves that bothers me. The M’s are already having problems attracting fans and free agents to the Northwest, and tossing Ichiro off the ship isn’t going to make that sales pitch any easier. With the way the organization has poorly handled the exits of Johnson/Griffey/Rodriguez, they really need to do right by their superstar one of these days.
Wow. I must be getting smarter. Now Dave and I are sharing a brain here.
This is one of the biggest reasons why I’m a huge proponent of keeping Ichiro around, and why he’s particularly more valuable to the M’s than he might be to other teams.
That, and, of course, as Dave also suggests, he’s an upper-echelon talent that’s probably worth a top-dollar contract.
And, finally, that I just don’t believe the aging effects that are common to players w/Ichiro’s similar skillsets (assuming, of course, there are really players w/similar skillsets) will affect Ichiro as greatly as they might other players. He’s hyper-neurotic about conditioning, and I don’t necessarily disagree with his comment in the article about his body being not unlike a 20-something’s.
Of course, I’ve had this all in my brain queue for a long post over at the Morsels. Except for this thing called time, of which I haven’t had nearly enough…
I thought that the Ichiro type of player aged better than most other types, anyway. Counterintuitive, but guys heavily dependent on speed age very well.
I’m a little disappointed in Ichiro’s wisdom as displayed in this article. How can a girl even BE beautiful if she can’t bowl a decent game? Bizarre.
I’m also a proponent of keeping Ichiro for 20 million a year if that’s what it takes. I don’t see this current administration getting a good deal for him before the trade deadline. I also don’t see them spending that 20 mil wisely anywhere else in the offseason.
I recall that when he talking in Japanese with Brad Lefton before the season, he pretty much avoided the subject
Well, yeah. Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson being pretty good examples of players of athletic players with speed who aged well and kept value into their 40′s.
This also makes a good case for Ichiro being a HOF’er, by the way. The Julio Francos aside, very few people contribute at that age who aren’t playing at a HOF or close level. Even Jamie Moyer isn’t THAT far out of being a Hall of Famer- he’s not there, but there are worse players in the Hall of Fame.
I suspect that’s because they just tend to be fitter and age better overall. Fit players put less strain on their joints and the like.
Remember Mo Vaughn. A skillset entirely unlike Ichiro, and he aged really fast.
I recall that when he talking in Japanese with Brad Lefton before the season, he pretty much avoided the subject
It’s virtually been part of the ground rules for interviews this year that the subject is off limits. I’m a little surprised to see new quotes on the subject, although the most direct one is, “It’s a very touchy subject right now, so I’d prefer not to answer.” Which isn’t really inconsistent with that approach.
I think a lot of the built, slow guys are plenty fit, and probably some of the fast guys never had to work at it very hard. My theory* is that the fast guys can lose a step and still be fast enough to get to a lot of balls and beat out a lot of hits, etc, but when an average guy loses a step it makes the difference in a lot more plays.
*This opinion is completely unsupported by solid evidence.
Keeping Ichiro does not make the team worse. Losing Ichiro makes the team worse.
True. But at what point do you weigh the risk of losing him for no return vs. losing him for a return of two very good prospects?
I think the risk of letting him go for nothing is too great to let PR concerns get in the way.
And as a caveat: I am probably more pessimistic than most that Ichiro will leave.
(Dave pointed out that we get two high draft picks and clear 12 mil off the books if Ichiro leaves, so it isn’t no return.)
I often wonder what percentage of Ichiro’s soliloquies are lost in translation. His mind certainly does seem to operate on a higher philosophical plane than the usual ballplayer.
Case in point, Scott Spiezio.
I wonder if we’re losing humor in translation. Maybe Ichiro is the Japanese Bill Lee.
73. I’m of the mind that the translation is providing the humor, not the other way around.
… In fact, we’re always hoping the players prove every negative projection wrong. That’s why what we practice here isn’t pessimissm, even if it’s often mistaken for that. It’s optimism of the most hopeless sort, because it’s done in the face of calculated, near-certain dread.
I disagree. The unspoken theme this year is “Watch the mediocre M’s doom their management. (And enjoy Felix every five days.)”
The button reads “Chris Antonetti in ’08″, not “M’s World Series in ’07″.
75: It is a kind of optimism to cheer for the best outcome you find reasonable to hope for, whether you can see it as optimism or not.
To put it another way, if the Mariners do make the World Series this year — which would delight everyone who posts here — it still wouldn’t be proof that Bavasi was a good GM, and it would still be optimistic to hope we ended up with Chris Antonetti when Bavasi’s credit runs out.
The M’s should do everything in their power to re-sign Ichiro. He has more value to the M’s than any other team. They should certainly be willing to over-pay (moderately not absurdly) to keep him in the fold. Ichiro has a “good-will” factor of probably close to $50-$75 million for the team. If he was suddenly not a member of the team the franchise would immediatley lose value and esteem throughout Seattle.
Manzanillos,
99% of the people here including the authors (I believe I can speak for them on this) would be elated if the M’s went to the world series. They’d probably even trade 3 more years of Bavasi/Hargrove for it.
We are however realistic, there chances aren’t good. And if they don’t make it we want the best GM possible.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
[And the Ms won't be outbid by a team that's worse than them. They MIGHT be outbid by a team better than they are...but Ichiro is one of the few players this dysfunctional managment team would be prepared to go to the mat for.]
[And I still think that as the team goes, so will Ichiro's chances for re-signing. He'd leave for a team that's significantly better...but I very much doubt he'd leave for a team only fractionally better. Ergo, if the team's .500, I can see him leaving for a NY, a Boston, a Cleveland...but not a Baltimore. If the team wins the division or wins 90 games, there's a good chance he's staying]
75.
I’m pretty sure I’m not the first one to say that I’ll be severely depressed if we squeak into the playoffs, get booted in the first or second round by Boston/Minnesota/Cleveland, then have to suffer through another 4 years of non-contention due to poor management.
Would you sacrifice a long run of future success (say, 5+ years) under Antonetti for a shot at the playoffs this year?
Of course, if we do happen to make it to the playoffs this year, you think anyone on this blog wouldn’t give their left eyeball for a World Series championship?
Because Antonetti in ’08 is a credible goal.
Um….
82.
Hyperbole and I go a long way back.
Sure, but HOW long?
So long they’ve grown a bag of eyeballs.
Let’s do it this way: If you HAD to choose one:
1. M’s win 89 games due to some fluky, unsustainable performances. The make the playoffs, but are quickly knocked out. Profits are up. The owners want stability, so Bavasi is a lock for an extension.
2. M’s lose 89 games. Young players like Yuni, Felix, and Lopez take a step forward, but the progress is offset by various USSM ‘punching bags’ sucking as everyone expected them too. Hargrove and Bavasi are gone, Antonetti is in.
I choose 2.
Delayed gratification.
Assuming this is independent of the question of what it takes to keep Ichiro, I choose 2. Scenario 1 would probably not give me confidence that the team was likely to contend for a championship anytime soon, except in a fluke way which can happen with bad management but which isn’t something you want to count on.
Don’t forget that with Ichiro for the next ten years the M’s get a bonus deal. 4 out of every 5 games they get one of the best Center Fielders in the game. The 5th game they get a starting pitcher that throws in the mid-90s, with a wicked knuckleball to boot. I’d pay a lot of money to see that!
Would you sacrifice a long run of future success (say, 5+ years) under Antonetti for a shot at the playoffs this year?
The Florida Marlins say “Hi”… while sporting two championship banners from wild card teams that won 91 and 92 games, respectively. Two more championships than either Shapiro or Beane have gotten, and one more than John Schuerholz.
BTW, it’s not incredibly unlikely for a .500 team to win 90 just on luck.
(The 2002 Angels are a lesser example of this, BTW- a 99 win championship season bracketed by mediocre teams.)
If you can point me to anyone in the sabermetric community who thought that the Marlins signing Pudge was a ticket to the series, I’d be glad to see it. My recollection is BP laughed hysterically.
No, this doesn’t mean I don’t want Bavasi gone. It means that we can’t turn our nose up at playoff appearances… even if they come from sub-optimal strategies.
86. We lose 89 games? That’d be a lot flukier than us winning 89. But I’d take it if it meant the end of Bavasi/Grover and the beginning of Antonetti. And Yuni, Lopez, and Felix all improve? Yes, please, sign me up (though I hope all those things can happen with us winning at least half our games).
90.
But given the options that Manzanillos laid out? Would you trade 3 more years of Bavasi for one shot this year?
#89: Babe Ruth was a great pitcher. But before becoming a All time HR king, was he playing on the field 4 days and pitched on the other day? If Ichiro were to play 1B on the other 4 days and pitch on the 5th day, I’d be fine. But if he were to play in CF on the other 4 days, that’s going to kill his throwing arm between his scheduled starts, I’d imagine.
ec: I’m not turning up my nose at a playoff appearance. But he specified a playoff appearance where we lost in the first round, so the Marlin championships are less relevant to the question.
90. But those two are probably not mutually exclusive as you laid out. Don’t get me wrong, I am not a Bavasi supporter. Besides the Guillen deal this off season, I hated every one of his other moves. But I’d like to let the season play out before I fire him. The M’s are in a pretty lucky position now. Their RS/RA says that they should be 16-18, and the Yanks should be 21-16 and the Cubs should be 22-15. Those teams spent a lot more money than the M’s and they just haven’t had any lucks. Would you fire Brian Cashman and Jim Hendry because their teams under-achieve? I see this team actually has a good nucleous to make this more than 1 single good year. Let’s see what Bavasi can do.
[deleted, annoying]
Re-signing Ichiro needs to be a business decision reviewed on more than stats. He is a HUGE revenue source and will be hard to replace on the field and on the balance sheet.
His income generation has more than paid his salary, Bavasi just mis-spent the budget and didn’t bring in any pitchers.
Please M’s, keep Ichiro.
94- I answered a different question (see the italicized text), but here’s my answer to that one:
Before you answer 2, recall that Shapiro had to blow up the Indians team that made the playoffs in 2001 because of age and payroll problems.
The Indians haven’t been been in the playoffs since, coming close in 2005 and looking like a good shot in 2007, but also having some bad years and losing a bunch of their attendance.
Antonetti could do a VERY credible job as a GM… and we might not get more than an occasional run in the playoffs, because we’re in a division with Billy Beane, and in a league with some well-run teams.
Again, I’ll be happy if Antonetti shows up… but what makes those two scenarios more likely than these ones?
Scenario 1: the Mariners win 91 games and a World Series on some flukey, unsustainable performances combined with some development from Lopez, Yuni and Felix. Bavasi and Hargrove are resigned for multiple year deals. The M’s lapse back to being around .500 for the next four years, being on the edge of contention (81-85 wins) during the good years, and being under .500 but not terrible (75-80 wins) during the other ones. Very similar to where the Angels were between 1995 and 2003, when Bavasi’s influence in the Angel organization was pretty strong.
Eventually the warm fuzzies wear off and Hargrove, then Bavasi are fired, and it’s GM search time again. The M’s, deciding to go a very different direction in their GM, pick a sabremetrically inclined one.
Scenario 2:
The Mariners have a sub-.500 year where Felix develops some but doesn’t quite go supernova due to injury/recuperation, Lopez and Yuni don’t take steps forward, and we have a lot of veteran deadwood. Bavasi is fired. Ichiro walks during the period while upper management tries to replace the GM, figuring he’s only got so much time at a ring and he’s not into rebuild projects, so the M’s just lost their best position player.
Antonetti comes in and says to Lincoln “Look, I need a year or two to get rid of the deadwood on the roster, like Shapiro did in Cleveland, but afterwards, this franchise will be in MUCH better shape- and frankly, I can build you a roster that will win 70 games for a lot less money, even if you lose some fans. That’s money in your pocket, AND better draft choices to improve the team down the road. You lost Ichiro anyway, so why not?”
So the M’s stumble around for another year or two during the changeover to a new regime, and eat their RDA of deadweight salaries, and largely stay out of the FA market except for occasional solid signings or one year fliers ala Millwood. The team fanbase atrophies even more. Then the team pulls itself back into contention, but loses a close pennant race or two and has a bit of bad luck the last year, similar to the Indians last year, so it’s year 5, the same place we’d be in in scenario 1… and what’s left of the fan base that isn’t USSM readership is screaming on talk radio that they are sick of not being in the playoffs for the last 10 years.
And Lincoln decides he’ll fire Antonetti (since he gave him and his newfangled sab-ur-met-rix a shot, and he didn’t produce THAT well), and brings back Pat Gillick, who’s decided he’ll do another kamikaze run with a franchise, after deftly leaving the Phillies in 2010 before THEY collapsed.
NOW which scenario are you picking?
I think the moral here is you can really pick a lot of plausible future scenarios… but we shouldn’t discount the fact that success isn’t a given even IF Antonetti shows up, and none of us can see into the future.
e_c (66), I am under the sabermetric impression that speedy players aging well (Gwynn, Henderson et al) is correlated with a certain degree of selectivity at the plate.
Although I’m sure his foot speed will continue to permit Gold Glove defense for another decade, I would be reluctant to bet $100 million that Ichiro will be able to rely on eyesight, reflexes and bat speed to continue to cover his historical, personal strike zone.
I am under the sabermetric impression that speedy players aging well (Gwynn, Henderson et al) is correlated with a certain degree of selectivity at the plate.
Lou Brock
Rod Carew
Roberto Clemente
I don’t think you’ll find any of them were particularly interested in taking walks at that plate- but they all performed well WELL into their 30′s. Carew’s decline in relative effectiveness stemmed from him being pushed over from 2B to 1B, and injury, which is, of course, a risk…but he also had a lot of mileage at 2B, a more common position for people to slump in their mid to late 30′s in.
I’m not as nervous about Ichiro cratering because he’s not enamored of the Ted Williams theory of hitting, myself…
But ec, I don’t think any of us think success is a guarantee with smarter management. It’s just — pardon me if this is rilly rilly obvious — that while you can point to examples of short-term success translating to world series wins and long-term success not doing so, it doesn’t mean that your odds aren’t better with long-term success…. and I don’t think smarter management would have to come here and tear everything down, either. And while the Indians haven’t made the playoffs since rebuilding in a smart way, the Tigers have, and the Brewers are looking like a good shot.
I admit it’s going to be very hard to convince me that a playoff appearance by the Mariners this year would make it more likely they would win a world series under Bavasi than the likelihood of winning one under someone else if the team fails this year and Bavasi is canned. I’ll cheer for a playoff appearance this year, but I will feel better about our long-term prospects if we don’t make the playoffs (again, assuming that has no effect on Ichiro re-signing).
It is really quite simple. If Ichiro goes Lincoln will go. I think Howie will do everything he can to keep Ichiro here. He won’t though and heads will roll. I just don’t see Mr. Nintendo letting that one slide without serious recourse.
Also why is this board so focused on what a chump Bavasi is (he truly is too) when Howard Lincoln is clearly the real issue.
Will Carroll just said that he’d hire Gord Ash to be his GM if he owned a baseball team.
Wow.
Don’t forget that with Ichiro for the next ten years. . .
Ten years? Ichiro can do things nobody else can do but I don’t think overcoming the aging process is one of them.
[i]Also why is this board so focused on what a chump Bavasi is (he truly is too) when Howard Lincoln is clearly the real issue.[/i]
It’s been said that Lincoln’s not going anywhere unless he wants to because, as former chairman of Nintendo of America, the owners have huge loyalty to him. Bavasi’s tenure at GM is in jeopardy and the great hope is that an intelligent, persuasive replacement could improve the team in spite of Lincoln.
Gord Ash has great mechanics.
I admit it’s going to be very hard to convince me that a playoff appearance by the Mariners this year would make it more likely they would win a world series under Bavasi than the likelihood of winning one under someone else if the team fails this year and Bavasi is canned.
Well, by giving the M’s a playoff appearance BY DEFAULT in 2007 (and assuming you don’t know how the M’s appearance in 2007 will turn out, or what happens in 2008 on), you’re handing Bavasi a fairly decent advantage- he’s up 1-0 on Hypothetical GM of the Future in terms of playoff appearances, which are the prerequisite to championships.
As Billy Beane could tell you, smart is good, but it gets beaten by lucky a lot of the time, too, and the other point is rooting for your franchise to get pounded into the dirt so that you can hopefully switch to a smarter GM has downsides.
All told… well, as dm could tell you, I was yelling for Bavasi to be fired last year. My mind hasn’t really changed… but I guess what I am saying is that the equation becomes murkier to me if you say “but what if Bavasi pulls a division pennant out of his butt this year”. My take, FWIW, is that I don’t find that scenario amazingly likely…but it’s not looking like any team in this division isn’t going to blow the doors off of anyone else,, thus nobody’s really out of it, except for maybe the Rangers, and even they aren’t dead in the water yet.
Bah, that should read “is going to blow the doors off”.
Update on the Saraceno interview– apparently, it was conducted back in February, so not exactly late-breaking news or an exclusive in-season scoop…
Sometimes we behave as though smart and lucky are alternatives, but they’re different axes. Lucky and bad may beat unlucky and good sometimes, but lucky and good is best.
And like I said, I’m not rooting for the team to fail. But I will honestly feel better about the future if they do. I understand why some folks see those feelings as contradictory, but I dont.
I am cheering for the Mariners tonight. If they lose, I will have the small compensation of feeling that it is another step toward getting the team better management.
98.
You’re setting up a straw man. For the sake of argument, let’s say winning the world series is completely, 100% luck. That puts our chances of pulling that out our arses at 1/8 (and I don’t think anyone truly believes that). The chances of us losing in the first or second round are much much greater and would likely guarantee the rest of your first scenario playing out exactly the way you described, which basically means we get one long shot chance at the expense of having to wait 3-4 years before we get a GM in here who can actually help the team.
As for your second option, as Scraps said, I don’t think a smart GM would need to blow this team up for us to be competitive as soon as 2009 and maybe even 2008.
Obviously, this is all highly speculative, but I’m just trying to say I’d hate to sacrifice our team quality over the next few years for the immediate gratification of what I’d call a very long shot.
Sorry, ec, I posted before I could saw your comment at 107. I understand your point, but I’m still with scraps on this one.
You’re setting up a straw man.
Yeah, fair enough, but my thinking is the entire “what if the M’s gut out a playoff appearance this year” question changes things. There really isn’t any other way about it.
World Series titles aren’t awarded on GM style points, or even just on building a great team in the regular season, or else we wouldn’t have had the 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002 or 2001 World Champions that we did, Billy Beane arguably has a ring or two, and John Schuerholz has a LOT of rings instead of just one, and the Marlins probably should have nothing.
Realistically, what you should be hoping for is for the M’s to make the playoffs, win it all… and THEN Bavasi gets fired anyways because the onwership group becomes masters of sabremetric enlightenment and realizes the season was a fluke, and Bavasi still sucks as a GM, and Hargrove’s still a crappy manager. This is all “if my aunt had balls” kind of speculation anyway, so why not?
I guess I’d boil down the real question we’re talking about as: “Would it be good for the Mariners’ chances of winning a World Series in the next ten years if they made the playoffs this year?” (Leaving aside the Ichiro question.) I think it would be bad for our chances, the example of the Marlins etc notwithstanding.
114.
I’d also like to trade Jose Vidro for Travis Hafner, HoRam for Santana, and Jeff Weaver for a case of fine Trappist beer.
Doyle on the DL… why can’t he just stay healthy???
You know with the way the front office has spent money over the last 3-4 years (Batista, Ibanez, Weaver, Spiezo, Washburn, Aurilia, etc) resigning Ichiro might not be a bad idea.
As for Ibanez…he’s always been overrated to me. He had a career year last year, but when you look at his previous stats, 06 sticks out like a sore thumb. Had 06 been a contract year for him, I can only imagine what what kind of money this guy would have gotten from another team. IMO we should’ve used him as trade bait last year for some damn pitching.
please omit Ibanez from my first sentence in my last post.
Dave, sounds like Ichiro is gone. Why not trade him so that we get something more than two draft picks?