Simple answers to questions
Baker on Sexson, and whether they should have pinch-hit for Sexson:
They have to hope he emerges from his sub-.200 slump by June instead of July or August and that’s simply it. You can’t chuck him now and rebuild the plan because Broussard as a full-timer is not going to get it done. Disagree? Then why aren’t teams lining up boatloads of prospects to acquire the low-cost Broussard?
Broussard’s paid $3.5m+ this year, for one, and there’s no need to give up quality prospects to find a cheap, reasonably effective 1B. Part of it’s that the teams where there was a need this off-season and spring, where Sexson might have been traded, found solutions, so there aren’t competitive teams with holes at first or DH looking to make an upgrade anyway. But moreover, it’d be like trading good prospects for a crappy DH – it’s not a move smart teams make.
Comments
139 Responses to “Simple answers to questions”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
There’s an unspoken assumption by Baker there than Sexson is quite a good hitter.
Therefore, if Broussard’s the better option, that makes him a very good hitter, and if he’s a very good hitter who only costs $3.5M, teams should be falling over each other trying to acquire him.
If, however, Broussard is average to Sexson’s below-average, Baker’s point falls apart.
Baker’s totally right – there’s no point in benching Richie Sexson. Broussard’s not a better player, and the M’s don’t have any internal options that would improve the line-up.
The M’s basically have no choice but to sit around and hope that Vidro, Ibanez, and Sexson improve their offensive output. The team has the worst 2-3-4 hitters in baseball, and there’s not really anything they can do about it.
The M’s basically have no choice but to sit around and hope that Vidro, Ibanez, and Sexson improve their offensive output. The team has the worst 2-3-4 hitters in baseball, and there’s not really anything they can do about it.
Those 2-3-4 hitters will also be under contract for 2008 for more than 25 million combined, so the odds are high that even if they DON’T improve their output substantially, they’ll be cluttering the lineup next year, too.
Awesome.
Hmmm. Broussard may not be better than Sexson, but would he be better than Vidro? It’s hard for me to believe that an above replacement-level 1B would be worse than a below replacement-level DH.
The team will undoubtedly give Ibanez a really long rope, and they honestly think Vidro is hitting well, so the only one we’re likely to discard next season is Richie.
crappy DH – it’s not a move smart teams make.
How’s Doyle doing in comparison to Joseph Glass?
so the only one we’re likely to discard next season is Richie.
… which is going to be a problem, since Richie’s the one making $14 million, and nobody is going to take an immobile 1B hitting like crap making that.
I suspect he gets half a season in 2008 at least, like Bret Boone got in 2005.
Believe it or not, Sexson is off to a better start this year than he was last year.
Last year, his OPS was below .700 until June 24th, and then we all know he improved, and then finished off the year tearing the cover off the ball. I can’t help but think that he’s started off these last two seasons unprepared to play baseball. He hasn’t always struggled like this coming out of the gate, it started after he got a big contract and lots of job security. Richie Sexson is a good hitter. It sucks that he chooses to waste his talent the first part of the year.
Sexson has never began his seasons playing in Safeco before, either; nor has he ever been this old. There are probably other things we could speculate before leaping to the conclusion that there’s something wrong with his character.
Making a value judgment about a guy’s character because he’s not hitting as well as we’d like him to is lame.
There’s no reason to believe that Richie Sexson is struggling by choice.
Broussard wouldn’t at least hit above the Mendoza line?
How about moving Guillen and Johjima into spots 3 & 4?
Also, over at Lookout Landing, Jeff Sullivan has posted plausible evaluation that Sexson has been mostly unlucky so far (i.e. hitting well-hit balls right at fielders). That post may be a week or two old but I would assume its evaluation is still valid.
The point isn’t that Broussard can’t do better than Sexson’s .170/.290/.370 line. It’s that there’s no reason to expect Sexson to continue to hit .170/.290/.370 either.
This is the biggest thing casual fans get wrong – they’re constantly evaluating players by their very recent performance.
Realistic projections for future performance have to take into account far more than how the guy did in his last 100 at-bats.
OK, even though lineup changes aren’t as big a deal as people think they are, surely there’s an argument to be made for shaking things up a bit. And as Derek pointed out recently, there’s an 18 PA difference between successive lineup spots.
Move Sexson down to 7, Ibanez to 6, Johjima up to 3, Lopez up to 5, Guillen cleanup. Something like that. At least it’ll be a change of scenery.
Of course, the Human Brain Delay will think of this aorund July.
Then again, we have two guys with OPS over .800, and barely at that, so the succkitude is well spread around.
Move Sexson down to 7, Ibanez to 6, Johjima up to 3, Lopez up to 5, Guillen cleanup. Something like that. At least it’ll be a change of scenery.
Here’s the problem – When Sexson inevitably gets hot, Hargrove is then afraid to move him out of the #7 spot, because that’s whats working. We saw this same stupidity with Beltre in the #2 hole last year. Predictable regression occurs after coincidental move in batting order, and wham, paralyzing fear of rational line-ups sets in.
So, then, we get Sexson hitting .300/.360/.500 in the #7 hole for the rest of the year.
Broussard is a very solid major league hitter. There is no reason (except Hargrove) that they couldn’t do something like rotate Sexson, Vidro, and Broussard among DH and 1B and play Richie 8 games out of 10, Vidro 7 and Ben 5 — match them up against tough lefties, tough righties, favorable match-ups. Broussard is probably better than his career numbers at Safeco, and Sexson and certainly Vidro worse — so the fact that Broussard already has better career numbers than Vidro and not terribly worse than Sexson means he needs to be in there more.
If Sexson starts hitting again, do you see a market for him developing?
Dave,
OK, I can agree with you about not benching Sexson. Was sort of playing devil’s advocate there.
But what about moving Guillen and Jo up and Sexson and Ibanez down?
I think there is no market whatsoever for Sexson that does not include Mariners eating a lot of salary.
I’m going to take a guess and say the Cleveland and Milwaukee aren’t significantly warmer than Seattle in the early Spring. Also, I’m not aware of any evidence that says that older players are more likely to have slow starts.
Why not platoon Sexson a bit while he goes through his early season slump? Broussard is a quality Major League hitter (.793 lifetime OPS, .815 last year) and offers badly needed power from the left side. You get the benefit of mitigating Sexson’s slow start while keeping Ben’s bat from getting too rusty.
Making a value judgment about a guy’s character because he’s not hitting as well as we’d like him to is lame.
Just because you want to distance yourself from a conclusion doesn’t mean there’s no substance in it.
kwk: the burden of proof is on you to show some sort of “lack of trying,” “waste of talent,” or poor character on the part of Sexson.
Where’s the evidence that he’s dogging it?
If you want to start the U.S.S. Unfounded Character Assasination Blog, knock yourself out.
This isn’t that blog.
Give Broussard some of Guillen’s at bats when they face a tough RHP.
Give Broussard some of Sexson’s at bats when they face a tough RHP.
I guess I am saying play Broussard once in a while. And Ellison? Play him or bring up Jones or Morse and play them.
Broussard clearly needs to be playing more against RHP. We all agree on that. Doc’s suggested playing time splits for the DH/1B wheel is simple and effective, even if I’d argue that Vidro should be the one playing the least against righties.
I’m going to take a guess and say the Cleveland and Milwaukee aren’t significantly warmer than Seattle in the early Spring.
Hm, perhaps, but do you know how Safeco Field plays in early spring and how that differs from Jacobs Field in early spring? Might make a difference, since apparently Safeco DOES play a bit differently for RH power hitters throughout the season…
If it were up to me alone, I’d have Broussard take ALL the DH AB’s except against nasty LHP’s — and let him play 1B against tough RHP’s
Broussard clearly needs to be playing more against RHP. We all agree on that. Doc’s suggested playing time splits for the DH/1B wheel is simple and effective, even if I’d argue that Vidro should be the one playing the least against righties.
Makes sense, but it seems to me that Hargrove will do that for rookies, but not for veterans.
vj (12),
The numbers have changed since Jeff made that post. They are more… worrisome.
LD% GB/FB IFFB% HR/FB%
2005 20.1 0.98 6.9 24.5
2006 17.9 1.06 10.8 19.3
2007 16.7 1.35 14.7 14.7
His numbers indicate the .176 BABIP isn’t all bad luck. He’s hitting more groundballs and weak pop ups and slightly less line drives. His HR/FB% looks like it’s falling off a cliff. He’s actually walking more and striking out less, so the poor OBP can be chalked up solely to his not getting good wood on the ball. I don’t think anyone thinks he’s going to be this lost all year, but it’s inaccurate to look at his low BABIP and say he’s just run into a bunch of bad luck.
I don’t know what to do about Sexson, but I gotta say that I love, love, love “The Human Brain Delay”. Well-founded character assassination rocks!
It’s also completely impossible for him to run a .176 BABIP all year, no matter how bad you think he’s gotten. The worst full season BABIP for a hitter in the last four years was posted by Tony Batista in 2004 – and he hit .230 on balls in play. And he wasn’t even a major league hitter at that point.
Sexson’s the anti-Washburn. They’re both going to regress to the mean, for basically the same reason. Sexson will get better and Washburn will get worse.
The problem with a platoon split like that is it requires the manager to think about things the fielding intellegently, and from what we’ve seen, Hargrove doesn’t like to think too hard about his lineup. Also it’d require stepping on proven-veterans-ex-star players toes, which he also seems to be against, and as long as Vidro’s hitting near .300 he’s not losing any playing time.
Ugg, that came out wrong, things “like fielding an intellegent lineup”
I just saw Craig Wilson was released
Wilson: .172AVG .304OBP .259SLG
Sexson: .171AVG .271OBP .366SLG
Wilson has half the ABs that Sexson does
So the Mariners have given Richie twice as long as Wilson was given and has not performed any better. Why don’t the Mariners seriously consider just giving him back to the NL? Eat some salary and put the team in a better position to win.
Ya know, just at the crudest level, look at Vidro. He has more freakin’ GIDP (7) than XBH (5). He has 5 XBH hits for the year — and he’s played in essentially every game.
5.
And 9 RBI’s. Hitting behind Ichiro.
He’s on his way to 40-something RBI’s for the year. And 9 HR.
How can he keep getting middle-of-the-order AB’s?
What is not to see?
Sabermetrics, schmabermetrics … baseball is baseball and Vidro is simply a guy who should be a superstar in the PSSBL.
You mean you have evidence that players are more prone to slow starts after they sign big contracts?
Even if you must believe it’s because of his contract — I suppose he wasn’t as complacent when he was making only a few million — why would you conclude that it’s lack of evidence, rather than (say) putting too much pressure on himself?
If he truly weren’t prepared to play in the spring, if he were truly indifferent, don’t you think his teammates and the people paying his checks would have something to say about it? Wouldn’t there be rumblings of discontent with Sexson’s effort?
I swear, the whole subject of contracts has the power to cloud people’s judgment, making it the only available explanation for all the player’s subsequent trouble.
Goddamnit, for “lack of evidence” read “lack of effort”.
Yup. Along the same lines, if he has a good year in ’08 people will say it’s the contract.
The whole concept of trading Sexson requires another team be interested in acquiring him.
Someone probably would be if the M’s ate his salary. Not that that would be their best bet at this point, with no available options to replace his expected production going forward.
If you eat his salary, then all you’re doing is forgoing the inevitable regression when Sexson gets hot, hits a bunch of home runs, and carries the team offensively for a few weeks.
If you’re going to pay him, at least pay him to help us, and not someone else.
Having Sexson and Miguel Batista locked up at high prices for the next few years is what ignoring Sabermetrics gets you. Just idiotic moves. Bavasi might have been the only GM in the bigs who thought the Sexson signing was intelligent. You have to look at numbers; our GM doesn’t. The same goes for Beltre. Nothing prior to the fluke 50HR season suggested he was going to be a top 3B. His defense is fantastic, but the rest of his game doesn’t warrant the money he’s being paid. The Mariners are in the top 10 as far as total spending goes, yet have very little to show for it. Diligent research can go along way in scouting, signing, recruiting etc. Our FO hasn’t shown that they make decisions on anything more than gut instinct + whatever the player’s most recent numbers were. Pathetic.
We didn’t pickup Beltre to repeat 04, to find a middle ground, and to play stellar defense. He came close last year. Sexson comes off the books after 2008. Washburn’s and Batista’s contracts worry me more.
Actually, the Beltre signing was totally defensible at the time, and I’d make that signing again if I had the chance. And the Batista signing was the best of the three moves Bavasi made to the rotation this winter.
If you’re going to lampoon Bavasi for making some bad moves, at least focus on the ones that were truly horrible.
#42, That’s basically what I said, it wouldn’t be the best bet at this point with noone to replace him, and nobodie’s going to give us anything worth eating his salary over.
There are easy immediate options if someone wanted Sexson — but not if you are going to pay his salary also.
If someone took his salary today, you could stick a 6’4″ shortstop with over .900 OPS in AAA in there right now along with Broussard, get pretty close to the same production, and use the however-many-freed-up millions to pick up a great starter at the trading deadline.
But no team wants him if they have to pay his salary.
RE: #44, I mean he came close to finding a middle ground I meant, a good hitting 3B (taking RHB @ Safeco into account) w/ stellar defense.
I don’t have a huge problem w/ the Beltre signing (because he brings it in other areas), but the Sexson signing has been atrocious. I dont agree that signing a 36 year old BP pitcher for 3 years was a good move at all, but to each his own. Trading Snelling was pretty indefensible. But in retrospect, was the Soriano trade that bad? Morrow essentially took his place, and Ramirez eats innings.
I asked this earlier but maybe not clearly. If Sexson rebounds to somewhere in the vicinity of production in recent years, is there a market out there for him that wouldn’t include paying the lion’s share of his salary?
Morrow having success with limited professional innings and one pitch in no way validates the Soriano trade. It was bad at the time and unless Soriano has a debilitating medical condition that the M’s knew about, it was a horrible trade.
I don’t have a huge problem w/ the Beltre signing (because he brings it in other areas), but the Sexson signing has been atrocious. I dont agree that signing a 36 year old BP pitcher for 3 years was a good move at all, but to each his own. Trading Snelling was pretty indefensible. But in retrospect, was the Soriano trade that bad? Morrow essentially took his place, and Ramirez eats innings.
Batista’s better than you think.
And yes, the Soriano trade was disastrous. If they don’t make that trade, they don’t have to push Morrow into the pen prematurely, and there’s a chance that he’d be ready to help fill out the back end of the rotation in the second half of the year after some seasoning in the minors.
So, instead of having a great setup guy and a potentially useful young starter, the M’s have an okay setup guy and a terrible starter.
#49 – With respect to the Soriano trade, my main problem is that if we still had him, Morrow could be developing in the minors as a starter. As we’ve seen with a couple other people from last year’s draft, he could have even been on track to start in the majors later this year.
You compared Bobby Abreu and Ibanez yesterday as having the same dimishing skill set b/c of age. The Yankees need more production out of first, have Melky to play RF and if A-rod leaves next year, a power hitting RH. Could you envison an Abreu for Sexson deal? Moving Ibanez to 1b. M’s would gamble on Abreu gelling with our group this year and then decline his option with a $2MM buyout for 2008. Making the way for Jones/Balentien next year.
Morrow taking Soriano’s place is a tremendous waste of Morrow’s future potential.
I don’t know if anyone listens to Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio, but this morning he made a great point that baseball unlike other sports overrates the managers and underrates the GMs. Yes, something most at this site know. It was just interesting when he went through the list of good teams the last decade or so so you could follow the success by the GM not the manager. GMs make or break a baseball team, and our GM has been given a pretty big wallet to work from and Bavasi has sucked. Bill needs to be replaced yesterday, that’s the only chance we have of keeping Ichiro and being competitive.
Could you envison an Abreu for Sexson deal? Moving Ibanez to 1b. M’s would gamble on Abreu gelling with our group this year and then decline his option with a $2MM buyout for 2008. Making the way for Jones/Balentien next year.
Why does New York make this deal? They replace one struggling bat with another and pick up $14 million in committed salary for 2008 for no real reason.
Cashman’s smarter than that.
Batista’s better than you think?
—————————————————————
Better than his numbers suggest, you mean. Because objective evidence points to the conclusion that he is a #5 starter on most teams (whereas here he’s our #3 guy).
Richie’s struggles this year and last seem analogous to Mike Lowell’s 2005. Everyone just assumed he was done as a hitter because he hit so poorly, despite a track record indicating otherwise, and that was over the course of a full year, not the first month and a half! He’s been a decent hitter since, and while the Red Sox could have ended up with the pumpkin, chances were he’d return to form with some level of decline, and they got just that. His line is close too his career averages, but I suspect fenway has masked some decline. That said Safeco field is one of the worst places to be a struggling RH power hitter.
Replacing Bavasi as GM right now doesn’t help this team. The roster’s been built, and there’s nothing a new GM could do about it right now.
The organizational shakeup should happen in the offseason.
#60: Disagree, the Antonetti Campaign must continue!
But wouldn’t an organizational shakeup be just the thing we need to keep Ichiro?
No – winning the division and throwing a lot of money at him is just what we need to keep Ichiro.
Once we lose Ichiro and all the extra income he brings in from Japan, Howard Lincoln and the owners wouldn’t be happy and then Bavasi will be gone anyway.
#60: Disagree, the Antonetti Campaign must continue!
The campaign is called “Antonetti in ’08″. Its not in the organizations best interests to do an overhaul of the front office three weeks before the draft.
beware pure opinion not supported by fact coming : I don’t think Ichiro is moved by money. I think he wants to win the right way, as he said in his USA Today article, he doesn’t like people that are just about winning and he likes smart people. I think he’ll see a winning season with the current org and roster as being lucky, and he’ll bolt.
Why does New York make this deal? They replace one struggling bat with another and pick up $14 million in committed salary for 2008 for no real reason.
Cashman’s smarter than that.
They have a heavy LH lineup with no RH power other than A-rod, Melky everyday is better then Abreu and Sexson everyday is better than their first base platoon. A lineup of Damon, Melky, Jeter, Arod, Giambi, Sexson, Matsui, Posada, Cano looks good on paper. Cashman really hasn’t been that smart recently and they might be desperate to keep up offensively with the Red Sox.
The problem is, what consitiutes the “right way” (if he even REALLY feels that way) to Ichiro? Getting a bunch of overpaid veterans? Making every player go through his level of conditioning (unrealistic)? If that really were his reasoning I’d be skeptical as too what consitutes the right way (money spent? recent success, luck or not? work ethic?).
If they want to play Melky Cabrera instead of Abreu, they don’t have to trade for Sexson to do so.
You might want it to happen, but it’s not going to.
I don’t get the same feeling from Sexson I got last year. Last year he looked lost at the plate, this year he’s looked locked in, but hit a lot of balls too the fielders. I don’t get the feeling he’s losing a bunch of bat speed either. He’s gonna regress to some extent.
From the USA Today article
“I want to be the kind of player who people feel it is worth paying the money to come out and watch. … When I meet players who are playing just to win, that angers me.”
Maybe Hargrove or Bavasi should talk to Ichiro about what he means? I just think that we need to keep him at all costs. Baseball is just like all other forms of entertainment. Without Ichiro, the Mariner’s already diminsihing national attention will dwindle to a flicker and we will only be relevant every 5th day, when Felix pitches. I would love to see the M’s books, and see the real impact of Ichiro has on the bottom line.
58
I hope Batista is worth the money NEXT year and the year after.
What are we expecting to see from Batista that will make us glad he was signed? (Not trying to be contrary, just clinging for SOMETHING to look forward to when he pitches).
That sounds like a problem with the translation, otherwise it’s an asinine comment.
Batista’s a contact pitcher, so like Washburn, he’s going to look horrible at times and look great at times, depending on the opponent. So far, he’s looked horrible, thanks to an unsustainably high BABIP and an unsustainably low LOB%.
His xFIP, which is a pretty good predictor of future ERA, is 4.92. Now, that’s not good, and I’m not thrilled that we’re paying Batista $8 million a year through 2009. But he’s a significantly better pitcher than Horacio Ramirez or Jeff Weaver, and 3/25 for a durable 5th starter isn’t the end of the world.
People pay to watch you win. If you don’t, they quit paying. People like to cite the A’s as a team that wins but can’t win the fans. The problem is most of that is the teams location not the team itself.
[dupe]
#76, no it doesn’t. They’d let him interview for a GM gig.
My main concern w/ Batista is his GB rate this year. If it regresses and he has a 48-49% GB rate for the rest of the year, he’ll be fine, if it doesn’t, he might not be.
#75 People pay to watch you win. If you don’t, they quit paying.
If that is true then why was the M’s attendance for ’04,’05,’06 : 3rd, 4th, 6th, respectively?
Going back to 14/15:
“Here’s the problem – When Sexson inevitably gets hot, Hargrove is then afraid to move him out of the #7 spot,”
Well, yeah, that’s the problem with the HBD(tm). He won’t change a lineup, then even if he did, he wouldn’t change it back. I was basically thinking of a one week “experiment”.
BTW, anyone notice Doyle’s out again – 15 day DL? Deep knee bone bruise, retroactive to the 11th.
65.
Unless you think that the past two drafts have not been good.
50, 54, 67
Seems to me there is no market for Sexson. Even if he regresses to his former glory, there are currently 19 MLB first basemen with OPS over .800. There are 7 over .900
Sexson is currently the 2nd-highest paid MLB first baseman.
No one will trade for him without the Mariners eating his salary.
Dave, I know you’ve done an Evaluating Ptichers, and Defense article, but have you or anyone done an Evalutating GMs article?
49: How in the world is trading an oft-injured, “never going to be anything of significance in this league” player for a well-established, “can hit” guy indefensible? That makes no sense to me. I know that dudes like Snelling around here, but you’ve got to have some sense about it. The A’s sent him to the DL again yesterday with yet another leg injury. Vidro might not hit as well as Snelling, but Snelling doesn’t hit very well on the DL, either.
Yeah, but it has been dropping, and there’s usually a lag in winning/losing and attendance gain/loss. Also the Mariner’s have a geographic advantage over most teams, having no real competition for a very long way, so if you want to attend an MLB game and live anywhere near the pacific nortwest, that IS your choice.
We’ve rehashed the Snelling/Vidro thing so often that if you haven’t read the arguments by now, you’re either openly ignoring them or you just don’t care to read them.
Vidro’s a terrible DH. Just taking him and assuming $12 million he’s owed the next two years would have been a bad move. The fact that they gave up talent to get him is just icing on the cake.
#85, It just seems that Seattle is doomed to lose its stars. Tom Chambers, Kemp, Payton, Mark Langston, RJ, Alex, Griffey. I know if you look at each situation separately you can make good arguments, but it just seems like a pattern. And the completely irrational Mariner’s fan inside of me will just be devastated to see Ichiro leave.
I know that certain people who come around here get a sniggering schoolboy joy out of injuries to Snelling, but seriously, how can people make a big deal out of a bruise that occurred from a random on-field mishap that literally could have happened to anyone? This little trip to the DL has nothing to do with Snelling being injury prone, and when he’s back in a couple weeks he’ll still be better and cheaper than Vidro.
What about Edgar
Anyway, I agree, keep Ichiro if at all possible, how else are you going to replace gold-glove defense and a slick bat in CF. That said if we do lose him, it worry’s me to what we might end up spending his money on.
The Sonics got all of Payton’s and Kemp’s best years, and Chambers wasn’t ours to begin with.
Dave,
Let’s say we go on a terrible losing streak and are out of the race by mid-July. Ichiro is being Ichiro! and hitting 330/380/420. What kind of value can we get for Ichiro, assuming the M’s are convinced he’s going to leave and there’s nothing we can do about it?
The Mariners will have gotten all over Ichiro’s best years too IMO.
#87 We’ve had some bad managements in the past and present.
87. We’ve still got Shaun and Matt and Holmgren.
(I wonder how many trades have hurt both teams as much as Shawn Kemp for Vin Baker?)
Eventually everyone loses all their stars.
92: I think Ichiro still has several good years left, though. Kemp should have, but didn’t; Payton was entering his twilight.
87: Steve Largent.
or what he meant back in February, when he answered the question via an interpreter …
#94, And look at the Seahawks managment? I think they are clearly the best managed pro team in Seattle right now, and it shows.
Anyways, Does Griffey go into the hall of fame as a Mariner or Reds?
98. Ooooh. Good one. And, correct me if I’m wrong, but we DID get all the best years out of Junior, which makes me pretty sad.
#99 Sorry, I didn’t know the article was that old. My bad.
> boatloads of prospects
I wonder what that looks like. Is that anything like the Voyage of the Damned, where a bunch of young frightened baseballers are afloat on the ocean but no country (or team) will accept them?
Yup, Griffey left Seattle, had one decent year, and has been the butt-end of many an injury-prone-player joke ever since. He’s been a pretty good hitter when he’s been healthy, but not “The Kid” good (and not a for-real center fielder either).
#103, just ask Betancourt.
It’s inconceivable that Griffey wouldn’t go in as a Mariner. He’s never played a full season in Cincinnati, even. He’s only got one 24th-place MVP vote there.
#100– unless JR is in Cincy a bunch more years, with 2005-type numbers, I assume that the HOF would choose the Mariner cap. RJ is prob. a D-back, and if Alex stays in NY putting up the numbers, I’d guess he’s going in a Yankee … if he leaves for another team, who knows.
(I mean, he’s only got MVP votes once in Cincinnati: 2005, when he finished 24th. He was in the top ten in MVP voting seven times as a Mariner. He’s also never been to the postseason with Cincinnati.)
in answer to the Managerial Hot Seat question, Ken Rosenthal weighs in that Mike’s seat isn’t as hot ….
Well, as much as Hargrove needs to go, he hasn’t hurt this team nearly as bad as Bavasi did this last offseason.
110, yeah but…
Hargrove at least will keep having interesting drafts and hanging onto the really potentially-huge-impact prospects, which might be enough. If Hargrove will actually play them.
Bavasi was a poor fit in a lot of ways, but I’m not sure he’s the end of the world. As much as I disagree with people who come here and complain about Snelling and Soriano being injury prone, it is worth mentioning that he’s been pretty good with the marquis talent. So if some more of our pitching prospects really emerge in the next few years and he can make a decent signing or two…
Well, I’m not convinced we’re doomed to losing with him at the helm. And while I agree people like Antonetti would be a lot better, I would be pretty sad if Antonetti coming in meant blowing up the roster again.
Re: 109
The amazing thing with this team is that even with throwing in the towel for 6 Weaver starts and even with the offense sucking on a regular basis with bouts of occasional mere competence we’re doing OK (i.e .500).
So yeah, the hot seat that was is now the merely warm seat. An 0-10 streak would change that, but mostly the problems we’ve had are seen as beyond the HBD’s control.
Suppose Wladimir Balentien keeps hitting at a .954 OPS with half his games in the hitting suppressing environs of Cheney Stadium. I don’t know what the Tacoma to Seattle translations are, and I know Wald isn’t much better than Ibanez in the field, but at what point would it make sense to have him start taking at bats away from Ibanez, Sexson, and Vidro? (Like by moving Ibanez to first or DH)
We’re stuck for their salary either way, and we all know Hargrove’s attachments to veteran grit, but if his 150 at bat pattern continues it seems this would be a real upgrade at some point.
“…Hargrove’s attachments to veteran grit”
Which is killing us, but unfortunately it’s the one thing he will never get fired for.
FWIW, assigning the monicker “Human Brain Delay” does not equate with character assassination. Intelligence and character are independent attributes. And the nickname is so much more clever than “Box of Rocks,” to boot.
I fail at blockquoting.
[dupe, holy mackeral]
why would there be any debate about which hat RJ would wear?
(The extensions been mentioned in five or six comments, I think, over the last couple days. It wouldn’t make it more difficult to talk to him; no way Cleveland would prevent Antonetti from interviewing for a GM job.)
Johnson has more wins as a Mariner than as a Diamondback, but it’s not a lot more: 130 to 104, I think. And that’s going to get closer. And he won a championship with Arizona. Seems like an interesting case to me.
(apologies on the duplicate post for Antonetti)
I’d argue that the Mariners developed Randy more than the Expos. He was pretty raw when he came to us and it took quite a bit of time (relatively) before he developed into the force he is today.
Or rather, was…
#121-
130-74 record, one AL Cy Young awards, 1 300+ SO season, 1 20 W season.
103-49 record, four NL Cy Young awards, 4 (almost 5) 300+ SO seasons, 2 20+ W seasons, Triple Crown winner, 1 WS ring and WS MVP award.
msb: you forgot to mention the perfect game. Beats the no-hitter thrown with Seattle.
My wife’s comment on Sexon somewhere around the 4th or 5th inning Tuesday night:
He’s big and cute, but can’t we get someone in to pinch hit for him?
Oops, Sexson. Sorry, big guy.
“The team has the worst 2-3-4 hitters in baseball, and there’s not really anything they can do about it.”
No question there, but they could try moving Beltre or Lopez up and Vidro and Sexson down. Vidro in particular is a terrible choice to hit second IMO.
Ichiro/Lopez/Johjima/Ibanez/Beltre/Vidro/Guillen/Sexson/Betancourt, or something like that.
Uh, go look at Lopez’s OBP. He’s not a great choice to hit second, either.
I’d go with Ichiro/Johjima/Beltre/Guillen/Lopez/Sexson/Ibanez/Betancourt/Vidro, myself…
Looks good EC, except I’d switch Jo and Beltre.
129 – Good correction.
Griffey: 1,535 games for Seattle; 734 (+) games for Cincy. Or 398 HR for Seattle, 173 for Cincy. What was your question? Unless he comes back and plays some MVP ball for Cincy for another five years, with 400 more HR, he’s going as an M. His career as a Red isn’t even close to Hall of Fame quality in its own right.
Randy’s tougher. 55.7 IP for Montreal, 1,818.3 for Seattle, 84.3 for Houston, 1,419.7 (+) for Arizona, 430.7 for the Yankees. Seattle’s got the most but still under half of his career. The Diamondbacks innings were as a whole much better, too. Gotta be Arizona.
the Batista signing was the best of the three moves Bavasi made to the rotation this winter.
Damming with faint praise there.
But I agree, Bastista is not as bad as he’s been, and even though I think he’s a #4 guy horribly overpaid at 3/25, the M’s were desperate for starting pitching, so I’m okay with the move. Clearly, the other two acquisitions they made for the rotation are disasters. They needed three arms this offseason, and it’s hard to sign that many decent FA pitchers.
Which makes it all the more %$^&* infuriating that Morrow is up here as a setup guy instead of being fast-tracked as a ML starter.
So, the PTBNL for Jason Davis was announced today: 18-year-old RHP Gregorio Rosario. Any great loss?
From Scout.com:
“Rosario, who signed a contract in late 2004 just months after gaining the rights to negotiate – at an age where pitchers are typically raw in talent – the teen was tied for the league lead with a perfect 7-0 record. The unusual combination of youth and polish were part of what netted him the title of staff MVP, but he still has some distance to go. Giving up just 44 hits and 15 walks in 54 innings, striking out a batter per inning is great for most levels of the minor leagues, but in the Dominican, it means you’re just a little bit ahead of the competition.”
I think Rosario is far enough down the totem pole that it isn’t that BIG of a loss…though i could be mistaken….
He might turn out to be something, but someone so young?
Who’s the best PTBNL of all time? David Ortiz?
No, but I’d vote for David Arias.
He’s also the best player to be re-named later.
OK, what percentage of all PTBNLs ever throw or face a pitch in the major leagues? I’ll bet it’s a small number.