The Inconsistent Offense
Watching the team hit this year has been pretty frustrating for most of the season. On some nights, they look tremendous, attacking mistakes over the heart of the plate and racking up runs left and right. On other nights, too frequently, they look like a collection of schoolyard hitters who get themselves out chasing pitches out of the zone. Most of the frustration has been aimed towards Richie Sexson, but he’s not the only one leading an assault on the most outs made leaderboard.
But there’s one issue that hasn’t been talked about that much, and it’s at the heart of the Mariners inconsistency – this line-up is way too right-handed. The standard Mariner line-up features three left-handed hitters: Ichiro, Vidro, and Ibanez. They now hit back-to-back-to-back in the 1/2/3 spots and are then followed by six consecutive RH batters.
Here’s the Mariners regulars and their 2007 OPS vs right-handed pitchers:
1. Ichiro, .827
2. Vidro, .714
3. Ibanez, .649
4. Sexson, .658
5. Guillen, .634
6. Beltre, .697
7. Johjima, .799
8. Betancourt, .607
9. Lopez, .695
Yikes. If you’re a right-handed pitcher that dominates RH batters but has troubles with LH hitters (like, say, Bartolo Colon and his .578 OPS vs RH batters and .888 OPS vs LH batters), the Mariner line-up is a proverbial wet dream. Yea, you have to deal with Ichiro to lead off the game, but then you’re staring at a worst-case-scenario of a single from Turbo before you face the slow bat of Raul Ibanez, which is finally followed by six straight RH batters.
How easy is it to pitch to the Mariners in late game situations? Almost every team has a RH reliever that turns even good RH hitters into likely outs, and the good teams have guys like Scot Shields (.461 OPS vs RH batters) who turn right-handed bats into kindling. The M’s are kind enough to stack their RH hitters together, making for the easiest bullpen decision on earth for opposing managers.
Not surprisingly, the M’s are hitting .257/.318/.388 against right-handed pitchers this year, but when their heavily RH line-up has the platoon advantage, they’re bludgeoning left-handed pitchers to the tune of .293/.332/.481. The problem? The M’s have only faced 8 LH starters this year, and they’re now 6-2 in games when the opponent throws a southpaw at them. But they’re 12-16 when the opponent throws a right-handed pitcher.
Of their own accord, guys like Adrian Beltre, Jose Guillen, and Jose Lopez are valuable players. But when you assemble a team, you have to pay attention to building complementary parts. The Mariners have assembled a line-up of replicas. They’re perfectly built to beat up on guys like Kei Igawa and Nate Robertson, but by refusing to build any kind of effective platoons or balance the line-up with some left-handed power, the team has punted their offense against right-handed pitchers.
And there are a lot more right-handed pitchers than southpaws floating around.
The M’s have a dilemma to face – if they’re serious about contending this year, they have to rebalance the line-up. Getting Ben Broussard in the line-up against righties more often is a start, but he’s not going to fix this problem by himself. There’s no easy answers and no obvious spots to put a newly acquired left-handed hitter, but the lack of answer doesn’t cause this from being any less of a problem.
If the M’s keep running out this line-up, they’re going to feast on left-handed pitching and struggle mightily against right-handed pitching. And that’s simply not how playoff teams are built.
Great breakdown. It’s posts like this that keep me coming here, even though I’m not a Mariners fan. Of course, once again in this instance I can make a parallel to my favorite team: the Cubs. They are similarly RH heavy.
Great post, but why is this hard to solve? Rotate Broussard with Sexson, Ibanez and Guillen against right handers. Now you have 4 left and 5 right against RH pitching. Move Lopez up to 2, and move Vidro down, and have Broussard hit 5th and you have balanced the order.
The roster construction is almost the exact opposite of the ideal for hitting at Safeco. The park punishes right-handed hitters and rewards left-handed hitters, especially those with decent to great power. To counterbalance the effect on right-handed hitters, you would want righties with good on-base skills or good power the other way (or ideally a combination of both). The current lineup has neither (at least as long as Sexson’s hitting woes continue). Nor are there any left-handed hitters with even moderate power in the lineup (unless Ibanez somehow rediscovers his power stroke).
The most frustrating thing is that management knows this (hello “left-handed sock”), but in actually constructing the roster, they completely ignored it.
Thanks, Dave. Nice analysis.
For the last few years one of my major complaints about M’s management has been it’s inability to add another solid power bat from the left side, expecially after the decline of Olerud and the trade of the switch-hitting Guillen. While acknowledging that it is more difficult to find lefty hitters, given the way Safeco plays it would seem to be extremely important to have at least a lineup that is somewhat balanced between lefties and righties.
“The M’s have a dilemma to face – if they’re serious about contending this year, they have to rebalance the line-up.”
Excellent post, particularly when contrasted to contract/matrix. The most marketable of their players are Felix, followed by Ichiro which are not viable choices from a revenue perspective or lineup obviously.
Can’t trade Sexson or Ibanez, maybe Beltre or Johjima.
[ot]
nice post…
Great post, but why is this hard to solve? Rotate Broussard with Sexson, Ibanez and Guillen against right handers. Now you have 4 left and 5 right against RH pitching. Move Lopez up to 2, and move Vidro down, and have Broussard hit 5th and you have balanced the order.
Broussard’s not Travis Hafner – he’s a decent hitter, but having him in the line-up is only a step in the right direction. If he’s in for Sexson or Guillen, the team would still feature 5 RH hitters and 4 LH hitters, and when he goes in for Vidro, it’s still 6 to 3 in favor of the RH hitters.
And, really, Broussard’s not an outfielder. He’s a first baseman who should only be put in the outfield in an emergency. Putting Ibanez and Broussard in the corner outfield spots together on a regular basis should be a felony.
Additionally, Lopez just doesn’t have the skillset to hit second. He refuses to walk, and as a .270ish hitter, he doesn’t get on base enough to hit that high in the order.
Trading Carlos Guillen really hurt this team. Guillen’s been about as valuable as Derek Jeter since the start of last season. What team couldn’t benefit from adding Derek Jeter’s bat?
I actually liked the move to get Broussard last season but then I thought they’d be getting him into the lineup a whole lot more than they have. And despite the fact that Jose Guillen is a decent player, we simply could not afford to put a right handed free agent bat in the outfield. With Ichiro moving to center we had a prime opportunity of getting a left-handed corner outfielder (or developing Snelling further) and Bavasi blew it.
“it’s at the heart of the Mariners inconsistency – this line-up is way too right-handed”
You have made a great case for the conclusions that the line-up is too right handed and that it is poorly constructed. But I’d like to see some better data that says that the righthandedness is the source of the “inconsistency” we have observed and that you mention — some days they hit like a major league team and some days they don’t hit at all. Is there some way to correlate this more closely to the pitchers they are facing — lefty vs. righty starters? Do they in fact score more against lefties? Is that the source of the breakout highscoring games?
[ot]
Is there some reason Joh doesn’t hit 3rd? Speed?
[ot]
The lineup’s 2007 OPS v. LHP:
1. Ichiro, .769
2. Vidro, .710
3. Ibanez, .720
4. Sexson, .559
5. Guillen, 1.360
6. Beltre, .819
7. Johjima, 1.100
8. Betancourt, 1.068
9. Lopez, .700
So, yes, there’s a little bit of a platoon split.
Hmmm… I thought this post was about LH/RH splits and the M’s offensive roster construction, and not Lincecum.
Given the glaring need for left-handed pop and given the glaring lack of success of getting it, I would think the discussion about re-adjusting Safeco’s dimensions should be revisted. Yes, we KNOW the optimal strategy is to get lefty power, yadda yadda yadda…but outside of possibly Clement in 2008, we just haven’t been able to execute. Instead of banging their heads against the wall, how about changing the strategy?
If not there, I’d say there’s the aggressive approach to batting that’s favored by both the players and management. Patience doesn’t get streaky…
yup. Bavasi has talked about (the infamous) left-handed sock, but apparently it is just darned hard to find.
Seems like the only resonable thing to do is to change the dimensions of Safeco. Otherwise you would have to trade Sexson, Guillen, Lopez, or Johjima. Would Johjima have a ton of trade value?
When you can’t tell the difference between Carl Everett and a left-handed sock, finding a left-handed sock becomes infinitely more difficult.
At some point wouldn’t it help to move Joh up to the heart of the order? Grover said in spring training that he saw Kenji as a “middle of the order guy” but he’s always been hitting 7th. Your OPS analysis shows that he is a perfect #4 hitter. And then we could move Richie down to 7th… or 8th… or simply or take him out behind the barn and end his misery?
Taking this the other direction, why in the world would Washburn throw to Vlad. Work around him and try your luck with one of the other bats.
I wish the M’s would see in other lineups what teams see in their lineup.
#16 – I agree completely, the M’s should look at a dimension change to Safeco. But my feeling is that they absolutely will not because that would mean they would have to field better pitching staffs and wouldn’t be able to hide the horridness of guys like Horacio via their home numbers. Thus, my position is that if they’re aren’t going to adjust Safeco then they have to be more committed to balancing the lineup.
I think Safeco needs to be reconfigured, but I’m not in favor of changing a ballpark to help fit a current roster configuration. I’ve stated my previous opinions about why Safeco’s dimensions are a detriment to the M’s, but they’re not moving the fences during the season, and really, even that wouldn’t be enough to fix the issues.
At some point wouldn’t it help to move Joh up to the heart of the order?
Yes, Johjima should be hitting higher than 7th. It won’t make a big difference, however, as the team would still have too many RH hitters in the line-up, and they’d still have a combined 5 HR on the year from their three regular LH hitters.
The line-up needs new hitters more than it needs new spots for the current ones. But, again, we’re in the middle of May, and overhauling the line-up isn’t very easy to do in season. This is a problem without any easy answers.
Vidro’s a switch hitter, not “another righty.”
Where did I call Jose Vidro a righty?
Is there another roster in baseball that is built as poorly to take advantage of their home park than the M’s?
All I’ve heard since Safeco opened was that the M’s needed left handed power, good pitching, and fast outfielders to win at Safeco. Other than Felix and Ichiro, they have none of the ingredients required.
How does Bill Bavasi still have a job?
[ot, stop hijacking threads]
[dupe]
I remember a comment on a long ago thread about how Safeco was built for Junior and RJ. Left-handed power bat to take advantage of the (relatively) cozy LF dimensions, and left-handed power pitching to negate same from opposing team. How true.
And once Jones comes up he will likely supplant a lefty (Ichiro or Ibanez).
sorry – relatively cozy RF dimensions.
What’s [Dupe] ?
Didn’t seem to be OT to me.
This is a nice analysis, Dave, but I think bemoaning the RH-heavy M’s lineup is like bemoaning the lineup order: you’re just trying to rearrange the deck chairs. The real issue is that the M’s have bad hitters, not that they are heavily right-handed.
Look at some other teams around the league (I’m relying on B-R.com):
Detroit is 3rd in the league in runs and they also have only 3 LH regulars (well, two lefties and a switchhitter).
Boston is also not excessively left-handed, with two LH regulars and two switch hitters. They’re first in the league in runs.
On the other hand, the Yankees (only 2 RH regulars!) are heavily left-handed, and the Indians are somewhat left-handed (4 lefties and a switch hitter).
To me looks like the issue is lack of hitters rather than lack of LH hitters.
2006 OPS vs.
LHP RHP
1. Ichiro 0.846 0.766
2. Vidro 0.816 0.715
3. Ibanez 0.663 0.955
4. Sexson 0.763 0.866
5. Guillen 0.660 0.868 (2005)
6. Beltre 0.813 0.786
7. Johjima 0.640 0.824
8. Betancourt 0.636 0.737
9. Lopez 0.840 0.684
This is the OPS for our lineup from 2006… it explains the order a little better for Sexson and Ibanez especially vs RHP
The line-up needs new hitters more than it needs new spots for the current ones. But, again, we’re in the middle of May, and overhauling the line-up isn’t very easy to do in season. This is a problem without any easy answers.
This one paragraph is why some people may see the analysis done here as pessimistic. It’s not that the readership here is not wanting the M’s to win, it’s that the FO continuously builds teams that have an uphill battle to compete the work done here points out those flaws with fatalistic accuracy.
Great post, I couldn’t agree more. It makes me think of a THT article where they were taking batted ball data for JD Drew (and others) and laying it over Fenway’s dimensions. I imagine that well managed teams are looking at this kind of thing when they are constructing rosters. I think they used Kevin Millar as an example – he may not have been a great hitter – but Fenway was perfect for him.
I think Bavasi and the M’s have some concept of this. He’s made comments about pitchers who are “good for Safeco†– he understands that the ballpark makes a difference. But the lineup full of righties suggests they haven’t been able to apply this type of thinking to the offense.
Obviously the M’s just need a platoon — a whole other team that comes in to play against RH pitchers. Maybe they can work something out with the Blue Jays, who aren’t going anywhere in the AL East anwyay. No, wait, they’re actually worse than the Mariners against RHP.
It’s easy to blame the management of the team, but I think you also have to look at the players and ask why are they performing at a lower level than before. It’s easy to say it’s BB’s fault that the lineup isn’t constructed to hit vs RHP, but why not ask why is Richie hitting 200 points lower in OPS vs RHP than last year, Raul 300 points, and Guillen 250 points? This lineup SHOULD be producing better vs RHP, assuming they just hit as well as they did in the past.
Post #35 points out that the problem against RHP is even worse that just 3-6 lefty vs righty bats. One of our LH bats (Ichiro!) has a pretty big reverse platoon split, and another LH bat (Vidro) is really a switch hitter who is significantly worse batting left handed (note: Vidro’s career OPS split is pretty even, but the last 3-4 years he’s been getting progressively worse vs RHP and now has a .100 point OPS split).
Hey I hear there is a pretty fair hitting lefty in Reds organization. Safeco seems to be built just for this guy. Boy what’s that dudes name again? Oh yeah Griff… o wait nevermind.
#40: “This lineup SHOULD be producing better vs RHP, assuming they just hit as well as they did in the past.”
That is the faulty assumption for which management is to blame. Sexson’s top 3 comps at BP are Jose Canseco, Dale Murphy, and Cecil Fielder, who all nosedived at Sexson’s age. For Ibanez, the comps are BJ Surhoff, Larry Walker, and Dave Parker, who all were in significant decline at Ibanez’s age.
Wood Dog,
Raul’s bat has slowed. He might just be done as a power hitter. Guillen is probably hampered a bit by safeco. There’s always been a platoon affect with him, it’s just greater now. Sexson is slumping which explains some of the difference, but he’s also on the decline.
42. Living in the past isn’t a very productive way to discuss the present. It’s been nearly a decade since Griffey left and he’s approaching the end of his shelf life.
Part of the issue is not just the park dimensions, but the climate, which stifles flyballs to left, no matter how close or far away the fences are. Moving the fences won’t change that.
Another thing killing the offense is that one of our LH bats in the lineup is a slow bat in the cleanup spot that can’t get around, let alone on top of 92-93 mph fastballs down the pike. Another lefty bat is our punchless, lead-footed DH, Vidro (okay, LHB vs RHPs). Ichiro is our only quality LHB right now.
45
The point is that we built a park that is much better for lefties than righties and have done nothing to build a lineup that takes advantage of it. I know that it is impossible to have Griffeyesc hitters 1-9. But the only major left handed power we have added in a decade is Ibanez, and, as hashed to death on this site, that power is gone.
Heck we don’t even have any lefty prospects.
I am not living in the past just pointing out that we built a park that is better suited for lefties.
The Mariners have figured out a way to get a lefty in the lineup during interleague play.
(Buries face in palms and goes “Why, God, why did you make me a Mariners fan?”)
And Hargrove will make sure to start Vidro at second only when Felix, Batista, or Ramirez are starting.
“Living in the past” isn’t productive? Hmmm, all stats are from the past, and I think 2006 full-year stats are as legit as 2007 6-week stats, if not better. I would LOVE to see any FUTURE stats that you have, if you don’t want to “live in the past”.
ok, you weren’t talking to me… I’ll just shut up now. as you were.
Huh? It only says that he took grounders during the spring – not that it’s under consideration or anything. I’m not going to get worked up about it yet.
Look at some other teams around the league (I’m relying on B-R.com):
Detroit is 3rd in the league in runs and they also have only 3 LH regulars (well, two lefties and a switchhitter).
Boston is also not excessively left-handed, with two LH regulars and two switch hitters. They’re first in the league in runs.
When one of your RH hitters is Manny Ramirez or Gary Sheffield, you can get away with some things that other teams can’t.
Yes, the Mariners lack great hitters. But no one’s putting Travis Hafner on the trade block, so that’s not really a fixable issue. At least the M’s can attempt to take advantage of platoon situations to compensate for the fact that they lack great hitters.
isn’t hafner a free agent this coming off-season? he would be a dream DH in Safeco…
platoon? huh? wha’?
the problem with a platoon is that hargrove doesn’t like them…it would be a good idea…but i doubt he cares what we think or thinks we know what we’re talking about…he’ll have time to reflect when he’s fired…
Looking at Hafner’s service time, I think he’d still have one year of arbitration left. His contract is through this year, maybe that’s what you’re thinking of, but the Indians still hold an option for 2008. Can’t imagine they wouldn’t exercise it.
I’d also be a bit leery of what kind of contract Hafner will command as a free agent. Given his age and profile, the Indians are clearly getting the best of his career, and I’m not sure his next team will get anything near their money’s worth.
(Buries face in palms and goes “Why, God, why did you make me a Mariners fan?â€)
Turns out you got to choose — only problem was the other choice was jihadist suicide bomber. Still, it was a certainly a close call.
I think Hafner will be basically worth the money, even if he ends up being a little overpaid. I would love the Mariners to go after him if the Indians aren’t able to lock him up to an extension.
The Mariners have made this right-handedness a long-term problem too. If Guillen continues to hit as well as he has, its very conceivable that his option gets picked up for next year. And if Ichiro walks and is replaced by Jones we become even more right-handed. Best-case scenario in the outfield is that Guillen gets traded and Ichiro re-signs.
One of the easiest ways to create a hole would be to trade Lopez and bring in a 2B that can switch hit and bat second (or leadoff). Luis Catillo will be a free agent and can do Vidro’s job better than Vidro can. Orlando Hudson could be available too. Lopez ought to have solid trade value if he can produce a 15-20 HR season in Safeco this year.
Hopefully next year the team will use Vidro off the bench and use that DH role for a lefty slugger like Clement if they get shut out of the free agent market yet again.
A more balanced lineup for 2008 might look like this:
RF Ichiro (L)
2B Castillo (S)
3B Beltre
LF Ibanez (L)
1B Sexson
C Johjima
DH Clement(L)
CF Jones
SS Betancourt
Vidro could get his veteran-status ABs at DH when Joh needs a day off.
It’s pretty unlikely that Clement will be ready for the majors next year (more on that in the next FF update), and if Raul Ibanez is hitting clean-up for this team next year, we might as well all quit.
I wonder if we could get Doyle back – He bats a nice left, can play left better than Ibanez who could DH…….oh wait that was the USSM plan all along, until Bavasi screwed it up.
[ot]
I’m stilled confused how my post about moving Ibanez to 1B, Sexson to DH, Vidro to the bench, and bringing in a AAA LH/OF with power, my reccomendation was Rick Ankiel, is considered hijacking. This is a thread about batting order and roster construction, right? Maybe I should have left off the suggestion of packaging Weaver and a prospect off to St. Louis to get Ankiel, If you have strict rules on posting let some of us rookie web guys in on the secret.
In the past, people have destroyed entire threads by turning them into baseless trade speculation posts. Especially near the trading deadline, we were unable to post anything without people taking the opportunity to give their suggestions for crazy trades.
So we put the kabosh on roster construction, or not-so-affectionately called rosterbation, posts.
Thanks for clarification.
This is why boys and girls it is better to build your lineup out of a left-right rotation with the occassional switch hitter than just having all righties or all lefties.
Brings us to an interesting question: Has there ever been a Major League game where one side batted ALL switch-hitters (excluding the pitcher)?
WOW… great info! All I could think about when I saw J-Lo hit the warning track shot off of Lackey(even he thought it was gone) was about our lack of right handed power in a ballpark that demands it.
It’s pretty frustrating as a fan that we all need we need left handed power, and we can’t even look to our farm system for help. If you’re running the FO don’t you consider left handed power prospects of high importance? Why haven’t we aquired any?
That being said, and keeping away from wishing for trades, I think we are showing the worst-case scenario atm. Unfortunately it feels like Raul and Sexy are here to stay, so we need those two guys in particular to pick it up. They should be providing power against the RHP’s and if/when they get on track we should improve at least a bit in this category.
lack of *left-handed* power… sorry
RE: 61, unfortunately Doyle is injured again with deep bone bruise to the left knee retroactive to May 11th as of yesterday. His average is down this year in a very small sample size but his .728 OPS would be helpful in our lineup if only marginally.
Its been said that the M’s Front Office chose Clement (ahead of other high-end RH prospects) BECAUSE he’s LH.
So what about Clement? How far away is he from being our 3/4-time DH and back up catcher?
71– Ahhh… so maybe they do get it?
Clement’s showing his power in spots during his stint in Tacoma. And his low average is mainly just the product of well-hit liners finding gloves.
If I had to make a guess on Clement… assuming he shows consistency along with his significant power… you could bring him up in 2008, but he would still need another year of adjustment and development before you could begin to fathom the expectation of him holding down a key lineup role. And that assumes you’re willing to give him consistent playing time, and that’s no guarantee.
And that’s just a loosely educated guess.
Ich L
Yuni R
Raul L
Beltre R
Broussard L
Johjima R
Guillen R
Vidro S
Lopez R
Would a guy like Mike Lamb just be Broussard II?