The long stretch of road
At 19-21, the Mariners at least have Felix back. But this schedule is just crazy.
May 22-24, 3 games at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay’s 18-25.
May 25-27, 3 games in Kansas City. KC is 17-28
So there’s some time against weaker teams, hopefully the M’s at least keep pace with the Angels ahead of
May 28-30, 3 games in Anaheim.
May 31-June 3, 4 at home v Texas.
June 4-6, 3 more at home v Baltimore
And then June 7th they get off before another road trip featuring another stuffed-in Cleveland makeup game.
That’s pretty brutal, and when it’s done, over a third of the season will be complete. If the team’s still five games behind the Angels and we haven’t seen improvement from – well, you know the list – slogging through those remaining games will seem almost as unappealing as these long stretches without any off days.
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the next 9 days will decide the Mariners season. To get a real shot at contending, they need to finish off this road trip 7-2 with at least two of those wins coming against the Angels.
The M’s have somewhere in the range of a 5-10% chance of making the playoffs as it stands today. If they haven’t significantly eaten into the gap by the time this road trip ends, those odds will fall to around 2-3%.
When you have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs heading into June and your two best hitters are free agents at the end of the year, it’s time to pull the plug.
The M’s season is won or lost on this road trip.
June 3-5, 3 more at home v Baltimore
The Angels games are entirely critical: not to look too far ahead, but right now, the rotation looks like it’d be Batista-Ramirez-Hernandez.
If the Angels beat the hell out of Batista/Ramirez again, the M’s are screwed. So unless the team does really well leading up to that series while the Angels stumble, the season comes down to Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez.
Ugh.
I wonder how more prone to injuries players are with these types of schedules. Regardless of our standings after this trip, I wonder if we’ll see some new faces called up as a result.
Dave,I think that may be a little dramatic. I certainly understand the importance of this stretch of games. However, if they lose the next 9 games and afterwards eat magic beans that help them hit righties this season won’t be lost. And if the win every game in on this road trip and struggle for the remaining season to be able to hit RHP its going to be a long June, July and august. My gut tells me that this team is not good enough hitting to have such an aggressive approach at the plate and our pitching isn’t going to carry us. It’s a long season. We’ll see. Go Mariners.
However, if they lose the next 9 games and afterwards eat magic beans that help them hit righties this season won’t be lost.
We’re interested in probabilities, not fairy tales.
Jeff Weaver will be eligible to rejoin the team in a few days, assuming his rehab (of which I’ve heard nothing) went well
#6
Understandable. I guess what I’m trying to say is that something has to happen for this team start hitting better to have a chance. The next nine games don’t make this team better or worse than they actually are.
The way things are going, any magic beans the M’s obtained would be laced with melamine.
The logical part of my brain laments this schedule with no days off, the toll it will take on the team, and the fact that it hurts, rather than improves, our chances of winning during the long stretch.
The baseball-loving part of my brain (that is not connected to part of my brain concerned with the best interests of my baseball team) is sort of stoked that I get to watch/listen to baseball every day for a long while. Days off are depressing.
Of course, if I am sitting in front of the tube in the middle of the Baltimore series wondering what next year will be like, I guess it doesn’t matter all that much. I’ve turned off at least 2 games in disgust this year, and I suppose there could be a number of such games during this stretch if things don’t start to pick up some. At this stage, we should probably be hoping for every little advantage possible. We will need it.
Jeff Weaver will be eligible to rejoin the team in a few days, assuming his rehab (of which I’ve heard nothing) went well
Do you even know if there was a rehab?
The next nine games don’t make this team better or worse than they actually are.
No, but the next nine games will have a drastic impact on whether the M’s make the playoffs or not. Last year, the Cleveland Indians were the best team in the A.L. Central, but they got off to a horrendous start and were never able to dig themselves out of that hole.
Even if the Mariners take dramatic steps forward and become the best team in the A.L. West, trying to make up a 7 or 8 game deficit in four months is a daunting task.
The M’s can’t go into June more than 4-5 games behind the Angels and believe that they have any kind of hope other than for a miracle.
What if Vlad breaks his leg tonight, and Colon gets hurt again?
What if Sexson and Ibanez just get back to where they were last year?
Beyond that, I just don’t think the Angels or As are good enough to put us away.
Yesterday’s PI notebook: (Would have linked but I’m inept without the quicktags)
“BULKING UP: The first order of business in returning Jeff Weaver to action wasn’t straightening out his pitching; it was strengthening his right arm. That has proven a tougher task than Weaver, on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, expected.
“It was amazing to me how just doing the exercises, I couldn’t even do half the reps,” Weaver said of a forearm routine assigned to him by team trainers. “Now I’m doing the whole program and just trying to get over the soreness.”
Weaver thinks the weakness in his forearm stemmed from overuse, as he tried to generate power to make up for the weakened shoulder. He threw long toss Sunday and expects to throw a regular bullpen session Tuesday.
“Everything’s headed in the right direction,” he said. “No setbacks.”
Weaver is eligible to come off the disabled list Saturday, but Hargrove said he expects him to be out longer.”
What if we lived in houses made of marshmellows and bathed in streams of fruit punch?
Reality says the Mariners have a week and a half to get themselves back into the race or the season is effectively over.
The Angels are good enough to put the M’s away. They don’t run out Batista-Ramirez-Weaver/Baek three out of every five days.
Well, we already know the probabilities are low. Bottom line, it’s going to take at least a minor fairy tale – but, hey, isn’t that what pennant runs are all about ??
The numbers are just too depressing – assume the M’s can take 2 out of 3 on the road from TB and KC, then drop 2 out of 3 in Anaheim, then take 3 out of 4 from Texas and 2 out of 3 from Baltimore. Great, that would put them at 29-27, facing a 10 game road trip against SD, Cleveland, Cubs and Astros. Make the heroic/realistic assumption they go 4-6 on the road trip. So, the M’s have played probably about as well as can be expected and they are now 33-33. It’s too depressing – bring on the fairy tale.
This little tidbit on Weaver in the notes from Sunday:
“RHP Jeff Weaver, who was placed on the DL May 11 with right shoulder tendinitis, has begun his throwing program. Weaver, who was 0-6 with a 14.32 ERA in six starts, likely will be on the DL well past May 26, when he’s eligible to come off.”
That’s all I could find.
When you have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs heading into June and your two best hitters are free agents at the end of the year, it’s time to pull the plug.
Read this and was thinking that this is going to be an interesting dynamic if it comes to pass. I’m not sure who would actually pull the plug this time – it can’t be Bavasi, since he’d be admitting to a failure that would almost certainly cost him his job. It would have to come from up the chain, but I’m not sure who would/could pass that judgement.
Just interesting to me to think about how that would play out.
That PI item’s a little scary: so Weaver can’t do half the exercises they gave him… and this never came up before? Either Weaver came in injured and no one noticed, or he got quite weak at some point after clearing his physical and no one noticed and no one said anything, or his injury was a lot more sudden than previously reported.
Alternately, this is all hokum, and they gave him a lot of homework to occupy his 15-day DL stint with the intent of helping his effectiveness
Alternately, this is all hokum…
Ding ding ding.
It doesn’t seem to me that Weaver’s arm strength is on par with what it was last year. With that said it doesn’t seem logical for him to be pitching if there was a drastic difference.
DMZ –
Have you ever tried doing physical therapy exercises? They target specific muscles, and man, lemme tell you, unless you’ve done some of those exercises before … well, they’ll make you sore no matter who you are.
That said, no doubt that it still could just be a bunch of hooey. Maybe they’ve just determined he’s a head case and it’s all mental: Give hime some “exercises” to do that lead him to believe his arm is stronger, hence a more confident Weaver.
Without getting into this too deeply, I’ve done a good chunk of PT in my time on earth. So I understand what’s up, and what’s potentially up.
Or maybe he’s living in a marshmallow house drinking the koolaid?
#15.
My point is it takes two or three to make a race. I don’t think the As or Angels are all that much better than we are. Odds are this thing stays competitive.
Two weeks from now I can’t foresee people here being happy with the AL West standings, not while Seattle plays roulette with its rotation 60% of the time.
To stay in the race they are going to have to beat the bad teams and hang with the good ones. 13 out of their next 16 are against teams they should beat. Hopefully they can go 10-3 and I will take 1 against the Angels at this point. It would put them at 30-26. Now is the time to make a run before LAAA hits their ridiculously soft June schedule.
Currently there are 4 mariners with OBP of .300 or less. Granted OBP is not the most important thing in baseball. But this team can not contend if 4 of their regulars starters continue to be outs disguised as major league baseball players. That disturbs me more than the upcoming road trip.
It doesn’t really matter if the Angels are that much better than we are if they have a 6+ game lead heading into June. 6 games is a huge lead. People don’t realize this, but it’s exceedingly rare for a team to come back from that far back.
At the end of this nine game stretch, the M’s will have 113 games remaining, and the Angels will have 108 games remaining. Let’s just say that the Angels go 5-4 and the M’s go 4-5 during this next stretch, giving the Angels a 6.5 game lead over the Mariners heading into June. Basically, the status quo is maintained.
Then, let’s assume that the Angels somehow play worse after getting Howie Kendrick back in their line-up, and they regress to a .525 ballclub, which would be an 85 win team over a full season. Not good, not bad, but a little bit above average. That would give them 57 wins the rest of the year, in addition to the 32 wins they already had, and they’d finish the year at 89-73.
In order to win 90 games on the season, the M’s would have to go 67-46 from May 31st through the end of the year – that’s a .592 clip for four months.
If the M’s don’t make a significant move the next nine days, they have to play .592 ball to overcome an Angels club that plays .525 ball in order to win the division by a game. That’s a massive, drastic improvement for the M’s and a huge slide for the Angels, neither of which there’s any real reason to believe should occur.
You don’t have to believe that the Angels are good enough to put away the Mariners the rest of the year to understand that the Mariners aren’t good enough to make up 6 games in the standings in 4 months.
AuburnM, the point is that it doesn’t matter if the Angels and A’s aren’t much better than the Mariners*: if the Mariners don’t make up ground soon, it will become realistically very difficult for them to make it up later, even if they’re just as good. The whole history of the game tells us that. The percentage chance numbers of making the postseason are not pulled out of thin air.
*Incidentally, the evidence says the Angels and A’s are better than the Mariners. Each of them has a run differential well on the positive side, while Seattle’s is well on the negative side. The fact is, Seattle has been lucky to stay as close as they have.
OK, I’m not really disagreeing with anyone on this one. I would agree that the Ms need to make up ground before they get to Anaheim or they are in big trouble. If they go into June down by more than 5 games it is going to take something dramatic – like an injury – to change the dynamics of the race. Dramatic things, however, happen sometimes.
Dave, didn’t you do a piece a while back on how it’s not as uncommon as you think for a team to come out of nowhere in a pennant race, ala the 2005 Astros/1995 Mariners/and so on? I remember a list being made… just can’t find it.
Not that I think the 2007 M’s are automatically that team, mind you (they don’t seem to be well-positioned for it)- but it seems SOMEONE draws to the inside straight every so often.
The difference between Vladimir Guerrero and a replacement level outfielder over the course of 4 months is about 3.5 wins.
So, not only would you have to hope for a season ending injury to the Angels best player, but you’d have to also hope that the Angels didn’t make any kind of trade to replace him.
And, having those two dramatic things happen, you still wouldn’t have enough things happen to make up a 5 game lead in four months.
Dave, didn’t you do a piece a while back on how it’s not as uncommon as you think for a team to come out of nowhere in a pennant race, ala the 2005 Astros/1995 Mariners/and so on? I remember a list being made… just can’t find it.
I think you’re remembering this article, where I wrote about the fact that one team makes a substantial year-to-year improvement in the standings almost every season. Basically, we should always expect one team to vastly outperform it’s Win% from the prior year.
This year, that team is Cleveland.
But that’s a different point than talking about a team making a drastic in season improvement to overcome a big hole and come back to win a division. It’s exceedingly rare for a team to play .475 baseball for two months, then play .600 baseball the next four months while simultaneously having the team playing .600 ball collapse.
1995 was a miracle. It was a blast, a great season, and one of the most memorable sporting events in the history of time. But it was so special because it was so unbelievably improbable.
Hmmm…
2006 Twins, AL Central Champions: 24-29, 11.5 games out of first, 4th place in 5 team division on June 1
2005 Astros, NL Champions: 20-32, 14 games out of first, last place in 4 team division on June 1
2003 Marlins, World Champions: 26-32, 12 games out of first, last place in 4 team division on June 1.
That’s just in looking at the 2006-2003 time period- 4 years.
Again, not that the M’s are guaranteed to be that team, but I think it’s fairly likely there’s a playoff team we’ll be seeing in October that appears to be dead in the water right now. (If I had to pick who that team is right now, it would be St. Louis).
If I had to pick who that team is right now, it would be the Yankees.
How many games do the M’s have remaining with the Angels?
The head-to-head matchups do provide the opportunity for some otherwise quite improbable swings in the standings.
Yes, Minnesota made a huge comeback from last year on June 1st. San Francisco, Colorado, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago, Cleveland, and Toronto did not.
There were 11 teams in a similar position to the Twins. 1 of them made the playoffs, and they did so by adding Francisco Liriano to their rotation.
1 out of 11 – 9%. Basically, what I’ve been saying. The M’s have something like or 1 in 15 shot of making up this deficet if they don’t make a big move in the next nine days.
Also:
2001 A’s, AL Wild Card: 26-27, 9 games behind Cleveland (and also behind 2 other teams) on June 1
2001 Braves, NL East Champions: 27-26, 8 games behind Philly (but in second place) on June 1
2000 Giants, NL West Champions: 25-25, 7.5 games behind Arizona (4th place) on June 1
So.
It would appear that the M’s aren’t DOOOOOMED yet…but if they want to make their move, it would seem that a stretch of games against weak sisters (TB, KC, BAL, TEX) plus the division leader (ANA) is the perfect place to make it. Anaheim’s really the only good team the M’s will be facing.
Good News with Mark Lowe:
From Rotoworld-
Mark Lowe threw from flat ground Monday for the first time since undergoing elbow surgery in February.
“If things keep progressing, within two or three weeks he’ll be throwing bullpens,” trainer Rick Griffin said. “We anticipate that, if there are no setbacks, that he will easily be back this year.”
The 2005 Astros and 2003 Marlins were wild card teams that finished second in their division by at least 10 games. The Astros were 9.5 games back in the wild card standings, while the Marlins were 7.5 games.
The M’s are currently closer to the division lead than the wild card.
And to be honest if the M’s CAN’T go at least 8-5 in 13 games against a group of teams playing .420 ball collectively… they aren’t a playoff team.
Thank goodness percentages aren’t always reliably right. I think thats why they actually play the games. I also think that’s why we like to watch.
It would appear that the M’s aren’t DOOOOOMED yet…but if they want to make their move, it would seem that a stretch of games against weak sisters (TB, KC, BAL, TEX) plus the division leader (ANA) is the perfect place to make it.
Isn’t that exactly what I’ve been saying? The M’s have nine days to make their move, and if they don’t pick up some ground between now and the end of the month, the season is basically over.
Go Mariners!
So far, the offenses of the A’s, Angels, and M’s are not far apart. The pitching of the A’s and Angels is substantially better than the M’s. Also, the A’s and Angels have had more injuries to impotant players than the M’s. They really are better teams.
If the M’s are going to surpass them, where is the improvement going to come from? Outside of Sexson, there’s not much reversion-to-mean upside in the lineup. More King Felix could easily be offset by more Bad Washburn. The Front Office does not have a confidence-inducing record of brilliant mid-season player moves.
I don’t understand why people are saying that the Angels aren’t good enough to put us away. Their rotation is quite a quite solid Lackey-Weaver-Colon-Escobar-Santana (who should get much, much better), and have been without Howie Kendrick, their second best hitter. He’s due back any day now. They need some offensive help, but I imagine they go and get it this deadline instead of keeping all of their kids they have coming up. They definitely have the ammunition to trade.
Their bullpen is top notch as well.
Well, it’s the “the season is basically over” part I’d quibble with a bit, seeing as a 5 game deficit on June 1 isn’t great, but has some history of recovery. All the teams I mentioned were further out than that on June 1, and they didn’t fold up the tent. I think I could live with a 5-4 road trip that kept pace with the Angels, and a good homestand 5-2 homestand, and then see where we go from there into the second round of NL play- while certainly wanting more…
Juan Rivera will also be back around the all-star break.
Okay, but if you look up who were 5 games out on June 1st last year (+/- .5), heres how they finished:
NL East
Atlanta (-18), Philly (-12)
NL Central
Reds (-3.5)
AL West
Angels (-4)
Well, it’s the “the season is basically over†part I’d quibble with a bit, seeing as a 5 game deficit on June 1 isn’t great, but has some history of recovery.
5-10% odds are terrible. Even your history of recovery just confirms what all the playoff odds models show – a team that is 5+ games out of first base on June 1st, and isn’t running a substantially better run differential than the team they’re trying to catch, needs a miracle to make the playoffs.
46 – This may be somewhat less likely than OPS improvement coming from magic beans, but it’s actually very likely that Weaver’s problem has been his shoulder injury. If he comes back at full health, he could be a valuable part of our pitching staff instead of a guaranteed loss every five days.
Felix, Washburn, a competent Weaver, a maturing Baek, and Batista wouldn’t be the best rotation in the league, but it would certainly improve our chances.
I’d really like to give Weaver a chance to prove that he’s worth at least some of the money we’re paying him. I wouldn’t mind being wrong on his value one bit.
George King at the NYPost thinks they are interested in Giambi
#52
Ramirez has been competent more often than not as well.
As you said, not the best rotation, but not awful either.
Any rumors about possible trades to improve the the M’s chances of contending?
2006 Twins, AL Central Champions: 24-29, 11.5 games out of first, 4th place in 5 team division on June 1
2005 Astros, NL Champions: 20-32, 14 games out of first, last place in 4 team division on June 1
2003 Marlins, World Champions: 26-32, 12 games out of first, last place in 4 team division on June 1.
One thing to note is that these teams had considerable talent that managed to gel down the stretch. Houston had Berkman, Oswalt, a pretty good Brad Ausmus, Lidge being a stud closer, a career year from Ensberg, etc etc. Minnesota had Mauer coming into form, Torii Hunter, Morneau having an MVP year, Cuddyer, Joe Nathan closing, a pretty good bullpen, and oh yeah huh Johan Santana, etc. Also, the 05 Astros managed to sign some pitcher at midseason, something Clemens, who turned out to help them quite a bit. These were cases where everything that needed to go right went right.
For the M’s to be one of those teams, Raul would have to suddenly hit like 2006 all over again, Richie would have to start mashing, Beltre would have to do less of the dancing in the box after balls, swinging at horrible pitches and pointing to 1st base after checking his swing, and more of the mashing that he was brought here to do.
Felix would have to stay healthy and pitch well. Washburn would have to continue having what would be a career year if he kept it up. People would have to knock in Ichiro. Vidro would have to keep hitting improbable slap single after improbable slap single. Batista would have to cut the crap and start pumping out 6-7 inning, 3-4 run starts every 5 days. Guillen would have to continue producing without getting hurt or knifing anybody. HoRam would have to stop giving away 5 run leads. Someone would have to pitch adequately in the 5 hole. Lopez would have to know when to pull the ball into the seats. Betancourt would have to stop making errors at short and start playing elite defense. Mike Hargrove can not make a boneheaded decision that costs us any more games. Willie would actually have to get a hit.
So much would have to go right for this team to do what the aforementioned comebackers did.
Nope…
Not really. His season WPA is -0.59. In seven starts, he’s in the negative on four of them, and in three of those he was the main reason we lost. He has two excellent starts and one decent one.
So much would have to go right for this team to do what the aforementioned comebackers did.
Well, yeah. I really think this is a 78 to 83 win team. They’ll have to get lucky to be a 90 win team.
But June 1 is awfully early to blow teams up- especially when you aren’t WAAAAAAY far out, and presumably one of your goals is to bring Ichiro back (and it should be). How excited is he going to be to return to a team that declared itself out of contention before half the season’s over and with only a single-digit deficit?
I probably play through July 1-the All Star break before making decisions on the roster and where this team goes from here if I’m Bavasi. It seems reasonable to me to play it out that way. Now, if it’s July 4 and we’re 10 games out loitering around .500, or there’s a complete collapse between now and then, sure, cash it in. I don’t see there being great harm in waiting until then, though- whereas sucking the life out of a team and effectively telling the fanbase and the players they have 100 games left of playing out the string and a complete front office/roster reconstruction to look forward to AGAIN… well, I can see downsides in starting it before you need to.
If Weaver’s only real problem is his shoulder, was it hurt all last year too?
But June 1 is awfully early to blow teams up
I’m not sure they can blow it up even if the writing was all over the wall. Bavasi’s going to fire himself? Lincoln’s going to admit is was a bad idea retaining Bavasi? I don’t see who would pull the trigger & I’m guessing they’ll hang on to hope much longer than anyone would want.
If we have a losing road trip Hargrove should never see the Safeco dugout again.
It might have been… and maybe the better fastball in the playoffs was adrenaline/pitching through pain. I won’t dismiss it out of hand… while recognizing that the M’s have done the “oh, you have an injury that’s making you suck ass” trick before with Cirillo and Spiezio.
Of course, if this holds true to form, we’ll release Weaver, who will go on to perform significantly better somewhere else while cashing Mariner paychecks.
Outside of Sexson, there’s not much reversion-to-mean upside in the lineup.
Ibanez. Lopez. Beltre. Bloomquist.
OK, I was joking about that last one.
Wow, even if you assume the M’s are a .500 team and the Angels are a .525 team going forward (actually M’s are likely lower and Angels likely higher), the M’s would need to play .575 ball the rest of the year to take the division. If they both keep playing at the same rate, they’ll be 20 games out, and if they both follow their pythag, they’ll be 28 games out. Yikes.
Also the A’s are a darkhorse here. They might be a force once people start coming off the DL.
I’m not sure they can blow it up even if the writing was all over the wall.
No, I’m pretty sure that if the team’s not in real contention in late July, we’ll see changes. For one thing, Adam Jones isn’t looking like he needs a lot more time in AAA (.312/.398/.522). Neither is Wlad (.321/.393/.554). Both of them are more likely to be crucial in 2008 to the M’s success than Jose Guillen.
So it sounds like the M’s chances of making the playoffs are just a little worse than the chance of seeing Barry Bonds hit a home run in any given at-bat.
I guess I’ll keep watching until they schedule the “Pythag” World Series.
Balentien is hitting .266/.344/.456 in May. I can say with confidence that he needs more time in Tacoma.
Jones could help a major league club right now, but the M’s have nowhere to put him. Even though he’s a better player than Ibanez, the M’s cannot trade out a LH bat for another RH bat.
No, I’m pretty sure that if the team’s not in real contention in late July, we’ll see changes.
I’d hope so – but I still don’t know who gives the ok/recommendation to sell Ichiro et al. Take Bavasi for example – what incentive does he have to build for the future given short leashes and all?
Also, using the scenario that the M’s are a .500 team and the Angels a .525 team, they have about a 6% chance of taking the Division going forward.
Of the cited teams that made the playoffs after a deficit, if memory serves, the characteristic approach of these teams to hitting differed in one of two significant ways from that of the Mariners: either the teams had some patient hitters or, if they were aggressive, they had more power to compensate for their ensuing lack of baserunners.
The Mariners at present have neither power nor patience. It’s hard to develop a consistent way of scoring when your offense is composed of mostly singles and few walks. Furthermore Ibanez, Sexson, and Vidro are slow.
If Ibanez, Sexson, and Vidro all started hitting within 20% of their normal power levels, things would look a lot better, but I’m not counting on it.
Combine that “style” of team hitting approach with at least two and often three of the starting pitchers bestowing a lead on the opposition before the end of the third inning, and the prospect of a long-term, 1995ish rally would seem to be less probable than even the numbers that Dave cites.
The only disagreement I have with this analysis is that it overlooks the fact that intradivisional play is a zero sum game. If the M’s play above .500 within the division, it means they’re beating divisional opponents. So when you say the M’s have to play .575 ball if the Angels are playing .525 ball, you’re not taking into account those divisional losses.
The Angels are in first place because they are 13-6 against the west, and Texas is 4-10. Sure, the M’s need to beat up on the weak teams but they especially need to beat the west. The M’s have 13 games left against the Angels, 14 against the Rangers, and 14 against the A’s.
That’s 41 games. If they play .600 ball in those games, that is 25-16. That’s a lot to ask given the weakness of this team, but it’s not impossible.
8-5 against the Angels slices 3 games off their deficit right there.
The only disagreement I have with this analysis is that it overlooks the fact that intradivisional play is a zero sum game. If the M’s play above .500 within the division, it means they’re beating divisional opponents. So when you say the M’s have to play .575 ball if the Angels are playing .525 ball, you’re not taking into account those divisional losses.
The odds reports from Coolstandings and BP that I’ve referred to multiple times do. BP’s odds report is based on a monte carlo simulation that replays the rest of the season a million times, game by game, to generate its results.
We’re not pulling these numbers out of thin air.
Correct, I didn’t account the balance of the schedule. The Angels are not a .600 ball club, they’re third order W/L (per BP) is .533 (the M’s are at .480). How they play against the west, and particularly the Angels is critical at this point, I’m not arguing that.
Take Bavasi for example – what incentive does he have to build for the future given short leashes and all?
Um, his job description as General Manager and the paychecks he gets for it?
Balentien is hitting .266/.344/.456 in May.
That’s a few singles from still being pretty good- the ISO is down but still there and he’s still taking walks. If he’s hitting that from now through the AS break, I’ll be more concerned. I would certainly send Jones up before Wlad, given that Jones is the more impressive player at this point.
The scenario I see playing out if the M’s do a bail-out trade is that since Face of the Franchise and Turbo aren’t going to be ditched anytime soon, and Sexson has no trade value at $14 million next year and a history of not hitting the first two months of a season, and the pitching staff is bereft of anyone you could trade (anyone but Felix or Putz) or would WANT to trade (Felix or Putz), is that Jones (or Wlad if Jones get injured/does a faceplant and Wlad steps it up a bit) comes in for Guillen, who is traded to a contender. Guillen has the right characteristics: isn’t going to want to stay around a bad team, is on a deal that’s fairly reasonable (one year plus an option that’s not too ridiculous or can be ignored if he turns into Bad Guillen), is performing pretty well, has someone in the minors who can come in with his skillset (RH guy with some pop).
I don’t see an Ichiro trade being very likely- unless Ichiro whispers “I’m outta here, might as well trade me” into management’s ear, and I suspect that’s just now he does things.
Er, “just not how he does things”.
I’m not disagreeing with the BP percentages; the M’s odds of winning the division are bleak and falling. I’m just not as convinced about the idea that any particular game or two is make or break.
Every game is important and they need to start winning most of them. Which is going to be hard to do given the huge problems the team has.
I’m not sure the M’s even would want to trade Guillen. He provides insurance in case Ichiro departs as a free agent, and his $9 million option is not unreasonable (especially with the money saved if Ichiro departs).
It’s interesting… the M’s chances of making the playoffs were about 10% BEFORE THE SEASON EVEN STARTED. The season has progessed almost exactly as expected and, as the M’s progressively have fewer and fewer games remaining in which beat the odds, their chances of beating them decrease.
If the front office is truly listening, Ichiro has already said he’s outta here. They’re afraid of the PR backlash, but the FO should force Bavasi to trade him and then fire Bavasi at the end of the season, escaping the PR blame.
I’m truly listening, I think, and I haven’t seen that. What have I missed? Can you give some quotes?
Bavasi should force Bavasi to trade Ichiro and then fire Bavasi?
I’m reading between the lines in the quotes he has said. I’m sure the M’s have offered up a contract extension by now. Has he signed it? He’s waiting to see how the season plays out??? Does this look like a playoff team this year or in years to come? I think it’s foolish to think he will resign here. It’s time to improve the future of the club.
FO (Lincoln and Armstrong and other stooges)
Foolish to assume he will? Really? Even if we’re the top bidder?
Also what about the draft picks, does that not improve the future of the club?
I know it’s Ichiro! but half a season of him probably won’t net as much as I suspect some people think.
I’m sure the M’s have offered up a contract extension by now.
Why are you sure of this?
Why won’t they have? Don’t they want him on the team.
It’s foolish to not agree with your “between the lines” interpretation of public quotes given through an interpreter?
I’d argue that it’s foolish to assume that you know anything about the man’s intentions from afar.
those would be the pre-season quotes, through the translations of Ken Barron?
Some random thoughts . . .
Let’s assume the Mariners muddle through this next stretch of games and are sitting at .500 in mid-June. If they improve their winning pct. only as much as they did in the second half last year, they’ll win 86 games.
Last year, six teams improved their winning pct. by at least .065 after June 15, including the Angels (+.160) and the A’s (+.074)
Last year, only one team made up more than 4 games in the standings after June 15.
I agree it’s hard to understand his thoughts especially with language differences.
But in spring training he said he was excite to reach FA for the first time in his career. His agent quoted “If it appears to them that they can’t sign Ichiro, they might have to trade him. If they didn’t, they’d risk just getting a draft choice for him.”
In the USA today article, “The Mariners say they want to extend his deal and have him retire in a Seattle uniform. Asked if he prefers to stay, Ichiro demurs: “It’s a very touchy subject right now, so I’d prefer not to answer.”
It would surprise me if the Mariners had already made a firm contract offer to Ichiro. Ichiro has made comments to the effect that an offer reflects the level of respect the organization has for a player. They need to proceed cautiously to make sure their initial offer is in-line with expectations or risk Ichiro feeling as though he is not being shown respect.
Other than that, I wouldn’t read too much into a player saying basically “no comment” to contract related issues.
64: Lopez’ OPS is slightly less than 2006 and slightly more than 2005. He’s probably right around his mean now.
Ibanez’ power is way down. He’s also 35 years old, so he may have fallen and can’t get up. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him hitting better the rest of the year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t.
The 2007 Beltre is pretty much the 2005 Beltre, so he’s not setting a new (bad) precedent this year.
WFB’s OPS is less than half of last year’s embarassing figure. Clearly, he needs to be more of a jerk, or he needs to light a fire under a jerk, or he needs some Oberto jerky, or something.
Great post, it’ll be fun to see what happens when the M’s start playing some of the other bad teams.
Unfortunately, I don’t see our chances of making the playoffs next year getting any better. We have eight position players signed through ’08 and beyond, and so far this year they’re batting .258/.303/.390. Whoopee!
Vernon Wells, Soriano, Carlos Lee contracts seem like good barometers. The M’s need to step up if they are serious. 6, 7, 8 year x 20 mil deal. A little much for him, IMO but he is the face of the franchise. This needs to be offered now. If he says he wants to wait till the end of the season then the FO needs to tell him that they take this as a rejection and move on.
Regarding intentions, I’ll go so far as to say we don’t even know what our spouse’s intentions truely are.
I’m going to gout out on a limb and say we have no f***ing clue as to what Ichiro! has in mind or if he even has decided himself.
I’m not sure the M’s even would want to trade Guillen. He provides insurance in case Ichiro departs as a free agent, and his $9 million option is not unreasonable (especially with the money saved if Ichiro departs).
Insurance for what, making sure the M’s have NO good LH bats in their lineup? If you keep Guillen and promote Jones for Ichiro, you end up with a lineup with Ibanez and Vidro as your lefties, unless you unload one of them or get someone else in the lineup somehwere, and the M’s have bupkus in terms of MLB-ready lefties who can rake (Clement is still struggling pretty badly). I think you can see what kind of problem that would be against RHP, considering how this year has gone so far.
The M’s are overloaded with right-handed hitting on the MLB roster AND in AAA, so it makes sense to get whatever value you can from your surplus talent. Guillen represents the best return you can get from the MLB roster (because no-one wants Sexson, and the M’s aren’t going to dump Face of the Franchise and Turbo before Bavasi leaves, plus they don’t have trade value, either), and it’s not like it’s an impossible task for Jones to replace him- heck, Wlad might develop into an adequate replacement, given time.
The other argument would be to package Jones or (most likely) Wlad with other players to try and clean out the roster, and keep Guillen, I suppose… but given Guillen’s injury history and the fact that if you are cleaning up the roster, you want to go with younger players, keeping Guillen around isn’t a clearcut choice over other options (going young and/or finding next year’s Guillen for cheaper on the 2007-2008 FA market, for instance).
I’d argue that it’s foolish to assume that you know anything about the man’s intentions from afar.
But Tony Attanasio doesn’t need a translator:
“If it appears to them that they can’t sign Ichiro, they might have to trade him. If they didn’t, they’d risk just getting a draft choice for him.”
And here’s what Ichiro said:
“In 15 years of playing baseball, I’ve never filed for free agency. I’ve never had a choice before in the past. If you ask me, ‘Is it possible that I might become a free agent,’ I would say, yes, it is possible.
“But if you ask me what my feelings are about it, I can’t express it.
“I’m not even sure myself what my feelings are.”
At the very least, these comments make Ichiro’s depature via FA a very real possibility. To some, reading those comments, understanding Ichiro’s pride as an athlete, his documented disappointment with the team’s struggles the last three years, AND recognizing the fact that this team is precariously close to being in BIG trouble in the AL West would be enough to justify an Ichiro trade before the deadline.
At some point, Mariners management has to look at the state of the organization, weigh the likelihood of Ichiro re-signing, and decide whether trading him is the right step.
Personally, I think we should have dealt him in the offseason, when his value would have been higher, but I think you HAVE to trade him.
We’ll see what happens.
I’m afraid I can see this happening…
No, you bundle Vidro and Sexon and some AAA pitcher for a mid to high level young pitcher such as Zambrano. You bring Jones in and put him in left, put Ibañez at DH, and start a platoon of Broussard and Ibañez at first. You can bring in Wlad to DH on nights that you have Ibañez at first.
Personally, I think we should have dealt him in the offseason, when his value would have been higher, but I think you HAVE to trade him.
Where exactly were we going to come up with an HOF-caliber center fielder last offseason? (Yup, I said it: Ichiro’s in the middle of a HOF-caliber career.)
I suppose if your argument is we’d be better in 2007 and ESPECIALLY going forward with, say, Gary Matthews pulling down 55 million for the next 5 plus what we got for Ichiro…I’m not sure I’d agree. My guess is if you dump Ichiro in the 2006-2007 offseason, given that Bavasi ain’t Pat Gillick when it comes to making astute FA signings, you might as well blow up the team for 2007.
I don’t see why the M’s improve minus Ichiro. Griffey and RJ were different- they ASKED to leave. Unless Ichiro wants to, he stays. I’m fine with just the draft choice and $11 million in cash, especially since you can reasonably trade Guillen and use HIS cash in 2008 while playing one of Jones or Wlad, likely.
Vidro and Sexson’s contract make them almost impossible to trade.
atait, the agent is doing his job. He’d lose negotiating leverage if he didn’t make it clear that Ichiro could leave. As for Ichiro’s quote, I don’t see how you read that as leaning in any direction at all. “I’m not even sure myself what my feelings are” translates to a “very real possibility” that Ichiro will leave? (I assume you mean “strong possibility”; I think everyone agrees it’s a real possibility, it’s just the likelihood of it that we speculate about.)
101. My god, why would any team on earth give us anything of remote value for Vidro AND Sexson’s contracts?
No, you bundle Vidro and Sexon and some AAA pitcher for a mid to high level young pitcher such as Zambrano.
Funniest. Rosterbation. EVAR.
But hey, I hear the Twins need a DH and a LF. Maybe they would trade that Santana kid for Sexson and Vidro, and sinceSexson used to play the OF, it makes sense for them, right?
Well, some common sense here…
If we win 95 games and make the playoffs (improbable as that seems now), I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’d stay. There won’t be a home town discount, but the Mariners would pony up and he’d stay.
If we lose 90-100 games, I don’t think there’s any doubt he’d leave. Even if the team came up with an ungodly amount of money, he’d test the free agent waters and find a good team at a good price (for him).
It’s the gray space in between that’s making things unclear; at some point Ichiro WILL draw a line and say that if the team’s below that level, I won’t stay. I just happen to think that bar is fairly high—a division championship or 90 wins.
Let’s trade Mike Hargrove to SF for Randy Winn.
No, you bundle Vidro and Sexon and some AAA pitcher for a mid to high level young pitcher such as Zambrano.
I just had to see this again.
I’d be OK with Randy Winn as manager. He couldn’t be worse.
The people who think 5-10% odds aren’t terrible are the people who make HARD bets at the craps table.
Those people are called suckers.
No, you bundle Vidro and Sexon and some AAA pitcher for a mid to high level young pitcher such as Zambrano.
Carlos or Victor? (ducks)
and then the whole nickname thing could start one more.
Insurance for what[?]
The team may decide that it would rather deal with filling only one opening in the outfield rather than two (it went so well when the team filled three openings in the rotation this last offseason). The return on Guillen is not going to be great (he’s certainly not going to bring back a major league ready RF prospect with left-handed sock). The team may ultimately decide that giving the GM (whoever it is) at least the option of bringing back Guillen on a reasonable, one-year deal is worth more than adding another Yorman Bazardo. I’m not saying that I would not trade Guillen for the right prospect, only that it is not a given that he will get traded.
The righthanded balance is a separate issue, and I think everyone here can recall Dave’s post on the subject from two days ago.
Carlos or Victor? (ducks)
Actually I think he was talking about Nancy
Where exactly were we going to come up with an HOF-caliber center fielder last offseason? (Yup, I said it: Ichiro’s in the middle of a HOF-caliber career.)
I suppose if your argument is we’d be better in 2007 and ESPECIALLY going forward with, say, Gary Matthews pulling down 55 million for the next 5 plus what we got for Ichiro…I’m not sure I’d agree. My guess is if you dump Ichiro in the 2006-2007 offseason, given that Bavasi ain’t Pat Gillick when it comes to making astute FA signings, you might as well blow up the team for 2007.
I don’t see why the M’s improve minus Ichiro. Griffey and RJ were different- they ASKED to leave. Unless Ichiro wants to, he stays. I’m fine with just the draft choice and $11 million in cash, especially since you can reasonably trade Guillen and use HIS cash in 2008 while playing one of Jones or Wlad, likely.
I didn’t say trading Ichiro would have made us better in 2007. It’s my belief that the risk of letting Ichiro walk for a draft choice and $11 million is too great to ignore. Ergo, the franchise will be better in 2008 and beyond with one or two very good young players (under team control for 4-5 years) AND the $11 million rather than just with the money and the draft pick. Would Ichiro be better than both options? Yes, probably, but I’m also taking into account the chance that he doesn’t come back.
And yes, I would have “blown up” the 2007 squad in the event that we dealt Ichiro – if you call trying to deal Sexson, keeping Soriano, Snelling, and Fruto, and letting Meche and Pineiro walk “blowing up” the team.
I don’t know how others feel, but if things go bad, I, and I speak as an M’s supporter, want them to go horrifically bad. If I have to support a bad team, I want to listen to radio postgame shows where the manager gets testy and says ridiculous things to defend his players. I want to see bizarre lineups and listen to equally bizarre rationalizations. Dan Bernstein, a Chicago radio guy, referred to this as “fun-bad.” If my team is going to be bad, please let them be “fun-bad.” The last month or two of the Melvin regime in ’04 was pretty close to “fun-bad.”
101: Thanks. I needed a good laugh.
117 – I just want Hargrove and Bavasi gone, and I want Ichiro dealt to the highest bidder.
If getting that means the M’s have to suck – so be it. Mediocrity may not be our friend.
Why would you have a platoon of Broussard and Ibanez at 1B?
Besides from the fact that that would be a horribly poor defensive platoon – they both hit from the left side!
Kazmir today?
Ah, nothing like watching a discussion of the Mariners contention hopes devolve into rosterbation and ‘Trade Ichiro?’ wank.
The Mariners aren’t trading Ichiro and there isn’t much that can be done to improve the roster as it stands.
Meanwhile, to get back on topic, let’s not forget that we didn’t think much of the M’s chances going into this season. A sensible fan would have known, even during the winning tear that got the team 2 games over .500, that the chances still weren’t too good, given that it’s a long season and the team constitution had some deep flaws, and that’s without injuries to key players or the slumps.
The Mariners aren’t trading Ichiro and there isn’t much that can be done to improve the roster as it stands.
Yup, though in a perfect world, we could use Broussard and Jones for some of the worse hitters and maybe get SOME pickup on the offense.
Pity that so much of the suck in our offense is under contract through 2008.
118 – Not as funny as what our current GM did this offseason, that’s for sure. And it would win more games. It would give us more range, more pop, and better starting staff. It’s a huge improvement.
124-
And it’s also impossible. Just because Bavasi gets taken to the woodshed by other GMs doesn’t mean he can do the same to them. No way in hell does Bavasi get Hendry to make that deal.
124: Sure. But trading WFB for the entire Yankees lineup would be a huge improvement, too.
#54, just how much worse than a 5.73 ERA from our starters will it take for you to admit this is in fact a BAD rotation? The AL average for SPs is 4.39, our guys are more than a run higher.
Its awful. Felix coming back helps, Washburn regressing evens it out..
124 –
I am trying not to believe it, but it sounds like you think people are laughing at your crazy trade proposal because they feel M’s would be giving up too much. That can’t be what you are thinking, is it?
The fact the M’s have been over .500 since the second day of the season, and remain within spitting distance of it, means they’re already outperforming my expectations going into the spring. So it’s all gravy at this point. If they can beat up on TB and KC — two of a very small handful of teams they should dominate — we can extend our delusions of competitiveness well into June. That’s so much better than the past two years of Hargrove/Bavasi that it may just get us more years of them; but here’s more optimisitc possibility: it will be just enough to stop Bavasi from doing anything drastic and stupid at the trade deadline, yet the team will still crater spectacularly enough in the second half to ensure a thorough housecleaning in the offseason. And the timing for that would be perfect, since there may be more good managers and GMs available than in past years.
Jones should be playing on the big club. Another 3 run HR today, with Pelekoudas there to see it (though I’m sure he was there to watch someone else; I kept hoping it was James Loney and that they’d figured a way to unload Sexson on somebody).
I concur this is a make or break kind of roadstand, but worse, 23 straight games in a row with no days off, well, you can screw over your pitching staff in a hurry with that. When you’re already scuffling, you’re either gonna step up or you’re gonna fall apart when you add the day after day after day stress on top of it.
23 straight games shouldn’t overstress the staff with a 12 man staff and Tacoma just down the road.
You haven’t been watching the Tacoma pitching lately. Maybe stress isn’t as much the word as, well, failure.
Tell you what: I’ll package my old, oil-leaking truck and my old, oil-leaking Honda and I’ll throw in a dirt bike, all for your clean, late-model, low-milage Porsche. It will give me more range, more pop, and make me more of chick magnet. It’s a huge improvement. You’ll do that deal, right? (Don’t forget, you get a dirt bike!)
With a name like joser, you’re already quite a chick magnet I see.