The Adam Jones Conundrum
Down in Cheney Stadium yesterday afternoon, Adam Jones went 3 for 5 with a home run. Or rather, I should say, another home run. Becaue he went 3 for 5 with a home run on Monday, too. He also launched one vs Tucson last Thursday, he hit two in Albuquerque on the 13th, and he hit one in Round Rock on the 10th. He has six home runs in his last 10 games and is hitting .351/.448/.703 in May.
Jones has taken clear steps forward across the board this year. He’s raised his walk rate from 6.7% last year to 10.2% this year while keeping his strikeout rate the same, showing that he’s working the count without staring at hittable pitches. He’s also raised his average without sacrificing power, hitting .321 with 36.5% of his hits going for extra bases. He’s hitting the ball on the ground more often this year, turning on fastballs and driving them through the hole between 3rd and SS. His route running has improved significantly, and while he’s still got some more room to go defensively, he’s now becoming much more of an asset with the glove.
Adam Jones is ready for the majors. If major league rosters and line-ups were simple talent competitions, where the best player in the organization got the job regardless of other factors, he would be the Mariners starting left fielder. He’s a better player today than Raul Ibanez in every aspect of the game.
However, Adam Jones is also one other thing that Raul Ibanez is not – right handed. As we discussed last week, the Mariners offense is already too RH heavy. With only Ichiro, Vidro, and Ibanez providing left-handed bats, the team has a power shortage whenever they face a right-handed pitcher, simply due to basic matchups.
The M’s can’t permanently replace Raul Ibanez with Adam Jones. Even if Raul wasn’t designated as Mariner For Life by the executives, this team cannot afford to sub out a left-handed bat for a right-handed bat and become even more unbalanced. And, being pragmatic, there’s just no way that Raul Ibanez loses his job to Adam Jones in the middle of a push for a playoff spot. It won’t happen.
But Adam Jones is one of the 5 or 6 best hitters in the organization right now, and with the team doing whatever it takes to try and win, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to have that kind of asset hanging out in Tacoma and blistering Triple-A pitching.
What’s the answer here? Honestly, I wish I had one. Perhaps you trade Jose Guillen to a team that needs a power hitting outfielder, such as Minnesota, and install Jones in his place. But that doesn’t make the offense any better, since Guillen’s one of the shining stars of the first two months of the season. Maybe you call-up Jones and have him play the fourth outfielder role, starting over Ibanez against lefties and giving Guillen and Ichiro days off here and there. But then you’re asking Mike Hargrove to actually run something of a platoon, and to take a veteran out of the line-up in place of a kid, neither of which are likely to happen without an edict from heaven.
The M’s are in something of a quandary. They have a guy in Tacoma who can help them win games, a team in need of help, and no easy answers for how to fit a good hitter into the line-up. This is part of why we hated the last offseason – the M’s removed huge amounts of flexibility by tying up the DH spot, essentially eliminating the chance for Adam Jones to provide a spark during the season.
He needs to be on the team. I just don’t know how they pull it off.
One more thing that sucks: if you call up Jones and put him in a platoon situation, it’s still not utilizing his skills to the utmost potential, as he has actually hit RHP this year just as well, if not better, than LHP.
Except in very rare cases (Ichiro, for one), players don’t have natural reverse platoon splits. Adam Jones is not going to hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching. Leaguewide, most hitters get about a 9% advantage against other-handed pitchers, and variation from that is almost always small sample size noise.
So, basically, don’t read too much into Jones’ L/R splits – they don’t really tell you anything about his skills.
Trade Sexon. I like the guy, but that’ how you do it. Put Ibañez in the DH slot and have AJ in LF.
I think the associated questions are: Who has the most trade value, and what are the Mariners’ needs?
The need is pretty obvious: A left handed bat or a good starting pitcher.
Who can they flip for value that opens up a space for Jones? Yeah, you could send Guillen out, and he’s probably the best candidate for getting a return on value. Where else could you shoe-horn someone in?
First base, if you want to dump Sexson. That would mean rotating Ibanez down to first and opening up an outfield slot. Of course, we could upgrade internally with Broussard, so that’s not much of an option.
The DH slot, if you throw Vidro overboard. But that loses a left-handed bat. Same problem.
The other infield spots don’t help. Neither does catcher.
What’s Jones’ trade value? Not worth the return?
Trading Guillen to the Twins for a starting pitcher (Dave had earlier suggested a Balentien for Baker swap as a trade that would make sense) would make the M’s no worse offensively and make them better on the mound. Yet I doubt that Bavasi or Hargrove, especially Hargrove, would want to swap Guillen out for Jones.
The sad thing about the DH spot is that even if Clement were tearing the cover off the ball, there would be no room for him to get at-bats.
At least Turbo raised his XBH total to six last night.
Trade Sexon. I like the guy, but that’ how you do it. Put Ibañez in the DH slot and have AJ in LF.
It’s Sexson, and no one would trade for him. You also now have two DH’s and no first baseman.
But other than that, fantastic plan.
That makes sense; I’m just saying that he’s exhibited an ability to hit RHP well (he actually had a prominent reverse platoon split last year, not that I think he’s a player who will always put up a reverse platoon split), and that it’s a shame if the only way he gets a chance this season is in a platoon with Ibanez.
What’s Jones’ trade value? Not worth the return?
You could get a lot for Adam Jones. He’d fetch a pretty good return on the trade market.
The problem, then, is if you trade Jones and Ichiro leaves at the end of the year, your starting center fielder is… Willie Bloomquist? Jeremy Reed?
Jones is your Ichiro insurance, so you can’t really trade him until Ichiro is re-signed.
The one guy out there who might fit the bill (available LH bat w/pop and OBP) is Adam Dunn, but what do we trade for him? And who would we have to sit to get him PT?
Ugh. If we trade Jones in an attempt to give this highly flawed team an outside chance an contending, I might have to quit paying attention to this team. It’d be too hard on me to watch Jones become an all-star somewhere else.
Somewhere Homer Simpson is screaming “Doh”
Heh, I haven’t had my starbucks yet.
Either way… Trade Vidro or Sexon, you plug either hole created with Ibañez.
No one else wants Vidro or Sexson, making either trade impossible, and neither player is going to be DFA’d.
12 – What team is going to give anything of value for Vidro or Sexson? None.
Best case scenario: Sexson gets very hot over the next two months and a contending team (Yankees? Giants?) gets desperate. But that’s unlikely.
Dave — maybe don’t dismiss the “trade Sexson” suggestion quite so quickly. Is there a scenario out there anywhere that you have a sense of that looks like:
-trade Sexson for a legitimate #4 starter
-in exchange/addition, Mariners eat (at least most of) his salary
-Bring up AJ — he goes to LF
-Raul to DH (he doesn’t like standing in the outfield anyway)
-Broussard to 1B
-Vidro to pinch hitter
More power, better outfield defense, more LH, better pitching….
Ahhh, even this is ugly…. Mariners get better, but flush 20 Million or more down a toilet…
Trading Jones just doesn’t make sense. If the M’s approach Jones as a perfect compliment to Ichiro, IF Ichiro re-signs, he could move back to right while Jones can play center (or vice-versa, but I like Ichiro’s arm in right).
One viable solution would be to dump Vidro move Guillen to DH, then move Jones up to Center. Vidro is doing well, but his value is high right now. He has no power, but his average and OBP are doing pretty well.
Another viable option would be to dump Ellison. He isn’t getting the AB’s, but he has worth to someone.
If a package could be made with Vidro and Sexson, what a dream that would be. Unfortunately, the only team in MLB that is dumb enough and rich enough to go after them is the M’s.
How does Wlad figure into this Conundrum?
Previously Dave mentioned a win-win with Sea and Min trading Wlad for young pitching. Couldn’t Guillen be their productive RH outfield bat to fit in between Mauer and Morneau? Guillen has a reasonable option for next year, so it’s not just a rent a player deal. Could Guillen fetch something more than Wlad in a Min trade?
I would have a hard time seeing the M’s management trading a ‘veteran’ bat away and promoting a rookie during a playoff push.
$7.5 million for a pinch hitter is unacceptable. Might as well have a $7.5 million LOOGY.
There’s just no way this team sits Jose Vidro, Professional Hitter, when he’s hitting .315, or whatever his average is right now. It’s just not going to happen. They think he’s good.
Dave — ANY trade options for Vidro?
I don’t think there’s a trade market for a player with no speed or defensive value who’s putting up a most-likely unsustainable 730 OPS.
You can’t move Sexson because no team is going to take on a below-average defensive 1B hitting under .200 while making 14 million.
You can’t move Vidro because nobody wants a guy who admittedly can’t play the field, who has 6 extra base hits all year, and who comes with his ridiculous contract.
You can’t move Vidro to the bench in favor of putting Jones in left, because then we’d be taking a lefty bat out of the lineup for a righty bat.
You can’t bench Sexson for Broussard because Broussard isn’t that much better than Sexson to justify putting 14 million bucks on the bench.
So long as this team tries to contend, there is no real solution.
So, I think the intelligent option is to take your lumps now in terms of salary, trade the right people in exchange for the right people while eating salary to set this team up to both contend now and be well-positioned going forward — any chance this front office can see their way to this now?
The alternative is sit in this stew, still lose money, and lose games, and be in a bad position going forward….
I’d move Vidro to the bench, Raul to DH and Jones to LF in a heartbeat — except for fans’ and front office choking on 7.5 Million….
actually he does like it — he has stated his preference for the field vs DH-ing.
This team just won’t eat that much money. It won’t happen. We’re stuck with Vidro and Sexson. This situation has officially become Kafkaesque.
You guys are a downer.
“actually he does like it — he has stated his preference for the field vs DH-ing”
He has for years said he prefers playing the field, but has for last few weeks said the central issue with his back pain is standing in the outfield (not swinging or running)
Dan W — share a little on how the M’s situation can become (already now is?) sweetness and light….
These discussions are always confusing because it isn’t clear whether people are discussing what the M’s *should* do or what the M’s *are likely* to do. They are, unfortunately, completely different discussions. Personally, I find the discussion of what the M’s are likely to do to be too frustrating to even engage in. What they *should* do is explore all options – trading Ibanez, Ichiro, Sexson, Broussard, Guillen, Vidro… whatever – with the goal being to assemble a team that can compete in 2008 and beyond. There are a hundred different routes they could go, but the point is that none of these guys, with the possible exceptions of Ichiro and Broussard, are likely to be positive contributors to the next good M’s team. (I think Broussard is a great guy to have around as 1/2 of a DH, 1B, or OF platoon).
So long as this team tries to contend, there is no real solution.
That’s why the title of the post is The Adam Jones Conundrum.
I think the most sensible thing the M’s could reasonably do would be to callup Jones, give Jason Ellison the boot (sorry Jim), and use Jones 3-4 days a week. He plays some RF against RHP to give Guillen a day off, he plays CF once in a blue moon to give Ichiro a day off, he plays LF against all LHP and occasional RHP, giving Ibanez and Vidro days off with Raul shifting to DH on Vidro’s rest days.
Of course, this situation creates even less at-bats for Ben Broussard, who would only play in this scenario when Sexson takes a day off.
There really are no good answers here.
he has only had the back injury for a week, and mentioned “It’s more the running and standing. Standing’s the thing. That’s what we do a lot of in the outfield” first on sunday.
ah, but after he plays the field in those NL cites they visit during interleage play, that will boost his value.
Two Questions
First, does Broussard have any trade value? I realize he is a lefty and that has value to a team that is heavily right handed.
Two, how much better does Jones have to be to replace a left handed bat? Is it possible that a right hander can be so much better than a left hander that it mitigates the removal of a left handed bat from the line up, if all else is left equal?
#31
Dave beat me to it. Call up Jones to replace Ellison, then see what happens down the road with Ichiro. Now you you’ve got two decent pinch hitters, one right and one left, and more depth.
#32
Oh, God. I didn’t think about the Vidro in the field situation that interleague play presents. And you know it’s going to happen.
Doc – ok, here goes…. We have a very exciting prospect in AAA looking for a shot and he can help the team. It is not a foregone conclusion that he will be unable to do so this year, even though it’s not easy to see how this can come about. He will certainly help next year. With your star center fielder about to become a free agent, it’s pretty cool that Jones is waiting to step into that role.
Our much lamented DH is actually hitting, without power, .314 has the second highest OBP on the team, can can swing a left-handed bat. I’m not here to argue that Vidro is a great DH but if he sucked as bad as some believe it would not be quite so difficult to remove him from the equation.
Move Jones into right? Can’t do that because Guillen is actually good.
Yes the team is too right-handed. So is Jones. But it’s not horrible.
That’s a pretty good plan, Dave.
“Of course, this situation creates even less at-bats for Ben Broussard, who would only play in this scenario when Sexson takes a day off.”
Unless the M’s chose to put Sexson and Broussard in a straight platoon. That might help solve a lot of those issues, too, and strengthen the bench.
I’ll take the point on Ichiro insurance, too. Yowch.
It’s amazing to see how many people are hung up on the contracts the M’s are paying Vidro and Sexson. They’re sunk costs. You’re paying them either way. If the best move is to dump them overboard, you eat the cost and do it.
Dave,
Can you elaborate on Jones’ fielding skills? If i recall he was a SS who was moved to CF becasue he was blocked by Yuni.
Management love for WFB aside, is there any reason he couldn’t come up to play the Grit role of spelling yuni and lopez at middle infield, and be the 4th outfielder?
First, does Broussard have any trade value? I realize he is a lefty and that has value to a team that is heavily right handed.
Not much – his salary and inability to hit lefties make him a relatively expensive part time player, and there aren’t many teams in the market for a part time first baseman right now.
Two, how much better does Jones have to be to replace a left handed bat? Is it possible that a right hander can be so much better than a left hander that it mitigates the removal of a left handed bat from the line up, if all else is left equal?
This is a tougher question to answer, and one I spent most of last night thinking about. When factoring in defense and baserunning, and the fact that I believe Raul Ibanez is basically done as a power hitter, I’d estimate that Adam Jones is probably a 1-2 win upgrade over Raul Ibanez in a neutral context. On it’s face, that should be enough enough to constitute making the switch.
But there are so many external factors at play here, from Ibanez’s status as the Face of The Franchise (TM), his contract, his leadership role in the clubhouse, and the L/R balance thing, that there’s just no way the move occurs.
We could sit here and explain all the reasons why it might be a good idea to swap out Jones for Ibanez, but it’s just a scenario that has no chance of happening. We’d just be titlting at windmills.
I agree with moving Vidro, even if he’s hitting .300, that just increases his already limited value. I would move the way over payed Vidro for any player, I mean Bavasi traded Moyer last year for 2 single A bum pitchers who are still in single A this year, I would gladly move Vidro and pimp slap Ibanez telling him to face reality that his days of playing the field are over and get used to DH’ing. In all honesty I don’t care about stacking the lineup with RH or LH bats at this point, in the end you still see tons of RH bats on other teams have success at Safeco, so at least in my eyes that notion of people in the farm projecting to not be compatible offensively with Safeco is a little over valued. I’m not going to totally disregard that a LH bat at Safeco won’t have more success, I’m just saying a good hitter, will be a good hitter and regardless of LH or HR the Mariners need good hitters, how many times this year have the Mariners needed just a clutch single to score some runs, and last time I checked Safeco’s no different when it comes to getting regular old hits.
All I know is I don’t see a huge diference between Balentein’s skill set and Guillen’s other than Balentein will cost $8.5 million less to play for the Mariners next year and will be 23. Man wouldn’t that be nice if the Mariners could have Balentein LF, Jones CF, Ichiro RF, and a power LH bat at first (If Lahair could have just been that guy).
Can you elaborate on Jones’ fielding skills? If i recall he was a SS who was moved to CF becasue he was blocked by Yuni.
Jones has a lot of raw speed and athleticism. Because he’s black – let’s be honest, this is why – he’s often compared to Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter. He’s not in their league defensively, but he’s got the natural abilities to potentially get there. He doesn’t have a great first step in the outfield, but he’s only played there a couple of years. His route running was poor the past few years, but everyone who watches him regularly says that its vastly improved.
He also has a cannon arm – he hit 95 MPH off the mound as a HS pitcher. His arm is stronger than Guillen’s, for comparison.
Plus, if you get rid of Raul, where are you going to put all those U’s? Perhaps toss them Brouuuussard’s way? Doesn’t have the same ring.
When Mike Curto was around a while back, he said Jones’ route-running was vastly improved, and he gets a chance to see him everyday. How’s Jones’ arm strength in comparison to Ichiro, and how about his accuracy, also compared to Ichiro? I’m of the opinion that Ichiro’s arm is actually much less accurate than he’s lauded for, and that people choose to ignore all the throws up the line, etc. and only remember the ones like The Throw.
#37It’s amazing to see how many people are hung up on the contracts the M’s are paying Vidro and Sexson. They’re sunk costs. You’re paying them either way. If the best move is to dump them overboard, you eat the cost and do it.
AMEN!!!, I learned this basic concept in Intro to Microeconomics. Don’t make a decision based on a previous decision. The people that think you have to play Vidro and Sexson because of their salaries, are the same that will eat a crappy meal because they paid for it, and then what happens? you end up on the shitter the next day.
I think Ichiro has the most overrated throwing arm in baseball. It’s not as strong or as accurate as people think.
Dave — any windmills out there that might be conquered for real breakthrough? For example, Vidro for Dunn, M’s eat both salaries, Vidro plays 3rd for Reds, Dunn DH’s for M’s, bring up Jones to replace Ellison?
The people that think you have to play Vidro and Sexson because of their salaries, are the same that will eat a crappy meal because they paid for it, and then what happens?
How about you have to play Sexson because he’s still the best first baseman on the team?
Seriously, he is.
Dave — any windmills out there that might be conquered for real breakthrough? For example, Vidro for Dunn, M’s eat both salaries, Vidro plays 3rd for Reds, Dunn DH’s for M’s, bring up Jones to replace Ellison?
The M’s aren’t trading Vidro, and no one’s trading for Vidro. It just won’t happen.
The other problem is that the M’s are on the hook for another $7.5 million with Vidro next year, too. No way anyone’s going to pick that up, and while the M’s have thrown away money in the past (Spiezio and Aurilia come to mind) I don’t seem them throwing away $14 million.
The idea of Vidro being an everyday third baseman made me spit up my beer. Sure, it’s early, but this team makes me do it.
I agree Sexson is the best 1B on the team and I wouldn’t sit him for AJ, I was more trying to make a generalization of why the argument about why you can’t sit high paid players is a bad business strategy.
#49 I don’t seem them throwing away $14 million.
My point exactly, They’ve ALREADY thrown away that money, the instant they acquired Vidro.
Jones originally was a shortstop, right? Would he be able to play that position or 2B or 3B in the majors. If so, there’d be more options to find him a place on the major league roster and more trade alternatives.
“Um, Dave, I have a question: Any chance the Mariners might be able to get Adam Dunn for Juan Zapata? The guy is lighting it up at High Desert with a 2.40 ERA in nine relief appearances, and I hear he’s got the kind of live arm the Reds like!”
Seriously, people: Nobody wants our crap, and nobody’s going to give us their good players. There is no easy solution to this, and unless Bill Bavasi can fleece someone on a trade — go ahead, I’ll wait until you stop hysterically laughing — it’s not going to change, barring some sort of major injury. (Ibanez needing back surgery, for example.)
Based on prior moves, Bavasi is willing to cut bait on sunk costs, but only if it’s the last year of the contract. I don’t see anyway in which that happens with Vidro and Sexson this year. Also, I think it’d be really stupid to let Sexson go right now. We’ve sat through Shitty Ritchie, we might as well wait around for Regression to the Mean Ritchie.
Well, if Jones can play OF and SS, he’s most of the way to being Bloomquist. Why not deal Bloomquist to an NL team that needs a utility player, agree to pay half his salary, and get a B pitching prospect back?
Then, you fire Hargrove and convince the interim guy that if you rub your eyes and squint that that young black kid subbing for Lopez at 2b is Willie after he spent the All-Star Break getting too much sun at Sandals in Jamaica….
Jones is an outfielder – he hasn’t played shortstop in several years, and he wasn’t any good at it. He’s never played 2nd or 3rd.
He’s not a utility guy. He’s an outfielder.
There are two easy pianless options:
1. Cut Vidro, make Raul the DH.
2. Or cut Willie, give Jones the McLemore role. He can’t be a worse defensive SS than McLemore.
/fantasyworld
52 — Tough to say they’ve thrown it away when the guy has the second-highest OBP on the team. I know he’s not an ideal everyday DH, but he is contributing, if not at a $7.5 million level.
Anyone know Vidro’s VORP? Seems to me that might be a good measure of how much of that $7.5 mil he’s actually earning …
I don’t think there’s going to be any way to trade Broussard unless Mientkiewicz or klesko go tits up, or if someone gets injured.
59 Vidro is contributing… to our sucking.
Jose Vidro’s VORP currently sits at 5.0.
In an ideal world, I’d say dump Vidro and create a 3 headed DH-1B monster with Broussard, Ibanez, and Sexson. Move Jones to left full time. When Guillen needs a rest Jones goes to right, Ibanez to left.
I realize the dump Vidro idea is not going to fly though. The only other option I see is some sort of super platoon. Jones plays LF and DH. Broussard and Sexson play 1B and DH. Ibanez plays all 3. And Vidro is only a DH. Against Lefties Jones in LF, Sexson at first, and Vidro is the DH. Against tough righties Broussard plays 1B, Vidro DH’s and Ibanez moves to left. The rest of the time you just rotate them. The main problem with this idea is that you need a pretty smart manager to handle it.
From Webster’s online dictionary
Pun:
Man: “Can I have a beer”
Bartender: “We don’t serve drug users here”
Man: “I don’t do drugs”
Bartender: “What about that barbitchyouate?”
Now, if that pun doesn’t solve this conundrum, I don’t know what will.
Doesn’t this thread really emphasize the fact that the team needs to be prepping for 2008, rather than spinnings its wheels in 2007?
It’s already been discussed how much of a stretch it is to expect the M’s to overtake the Angels this year. If the team were, however, to start prepping for 2008, you’d see the necessary, but hard moves made to get Adam Jones into the bigs, where he belongs. You’d see the team of purged of those parts that are blocking AJ and perhaps Wlad and Feierabend. You’d see Hargrove shown the door.
But we’d be kidding ourselves if we believed the FO was willing to make such moves.
#59 Nuss, if you don’t believe it was THROWN away, then just replace with already SPENT, that’s my point.
62 — How does that compare to the rest of the team? (And where did you find it? So I can look these things up myself?
)
What is Jones SB potential in the major leagues? I thought he was a very fast guy but he really hasnt shown much in the SB department. I think we need more action on the basepaths as i feel we have other fast guys like Yuni. I just wish we were more aggressive kinda like the Angels are.
66 – These salaries are sunk costs, and should be treated as such, but MLB teams don’t think that way. They’ll do everything they can to try and justify those contracts.
Doesn’t this thread really emphasize the fact that the team needs to be prepping for 2008, rather than spinnings its wheels in 2007?
On May 23rd, while being 5.5 games out, you’re going to give up on the season that you publicly proclaimed was make or break?
As long as you’re ready to kiss goodbye to Ichiro as part of your “prepping”, I suppose…
tons of great comments and suggestions…but we have to remember:
1) the GM and manager are playing for their jobs…they are more concerned with catching the angels than 2008 and beyond
2) grover doesn’t platoon…as Dave and other have frequently mentioned, he is extremely loyal to his guys and stubborn and set in his ways…platoons won’t happen with him as the manager
i want them to win yesterday, tomorrow and beyond, but right now, things look dire with this management crew…which has been stated too many times to count…
66 — I understand. While I understand it’s poorly spent money at this point, I’m not sure I’m convinced that it’s as poorly spent as some of you are. After all, we’re paying Adrian Beltre $12.9 million this year, and his RC/G is just 3.7 — half a run lower than Vidro.
Yes, yes, Beltre plays defense … but is his defensive contribution worth the extra $5.4 million?
This isn’t to rip on Beltre — it’s to say that I think we’re all being a little to quick to discard Vidro because we all think he’s fat and slow. Now, if you want to talk about the likelyhood of his BABIP regressing (currently .330) and that impacting his future value, I’m all ears …
72- Vidro is fat and slow…and usually the fat and slow guys hit home runs…a lot of them…
#73
Tony Gwinn was fat and slow.
Just sayin….
Nuss,
I’m taking the VORP figures from BP. I have a membership. Vidro’s fourth among position players in VORP, with Ichiro, Johjima, and Guillen ahead of him. Ichiro leads the team by quite a bit, with Johjima the only player close. Those two have been clearly superior to everyone else on the offense.
74- i said “usually”…and please don’t compare gwynn with vidro… that’s insane…
Just want to clear this up: Vidro is making 7.5M this year AND next year + with an option for 09 that cost 1M. For the 16M guarantee money, Washington is picking up 4M of that. So that net cost for Vidro over the next 2 years for the M’s is 12M, or 6M/year, not 7.5M/year. Maybe we can pick up another 4M of that and get another team to pick up his contract for 8M over 2 years? A professional hitter who’s hitting .314 with a .363 OBP is worth 4M/year, right? Would anybody in AL want him for that price?
I would be willing to bet that Bavasi doesn’t see Vidro’s performance as a problem, so he certainly won’t consider discarding him. He most likely looks at Vidro’s batting average and thinks the trade was a good move. His overall philosophy and approach in talent evaluation haven’t changed, and he was the one who brought Vidro here despite evidence that he would perform just as he has.
Here’s my question: Where do the M’s spend their money next year, assuming that Ichiro is gone? If you plug Jones into center in ‘08, then you have two spots open – RF and one SP.
This is why I just don’t see the M’s having much of a chance in ‘08 either. They way to much junk signed through next year.
On May 23rd, while being 5.5 games out, you’re going to give up on the season that you publicly proclaimed was make or break?
Check the thread from “The long stretch of road.”
Overcoming a 5.5 game deficit at this point of the year will be quite difficult. I don’t think we are at the “cut bait” point, but we are quickly getting there.
And yes, the first step would be to trade Ichiro. I’ve made my point quite clear on that subject.
#77
We need more left handed bats, not fewer. Vidro is useful right now.
74 – You did NOT just compare Gwynn with Vidro, did you?
#74– Gwynn.
FWIW, “above average speed (319 stolen bases at a 72% rate, second in the league in triples three times), and was an above average defender (five Gold Gloves, 120 fielding runs above average per baseballprospectus.com, fielding percentage and range factors both better than his league averages)”
If there’s nowhere to put Jones on the field that helps the M’s win games, then what’s the conundrum?
Is having ‘balance’ more or less important than batting ability?
i don’t think anyone would take vidro unless he a) finds power or b) can play defense…doubt either one is happening…look at Dave’s answer in #48 “The M’s aren’t trading Vidro, and no one’s trading for Vidro. It just won’t happen.”
he couldn’t be more succint…
Probably not, although funny things happen in late July.
re 85- sp “succinct”
#79
If things play out like that, I’d like to see Balentien in RF, and Feierabend in the rotation. I have no desire to see anymore free agent signings.
79 – I’d bring Guillen back, I’d sign Adam Dunn to DH (assuming the Reds don’t pick up his option) and play some LF and 1B (he’s not very good at either spot, I know), and I’d hope that we trade Ichiro for ML-ready players. Feierabend could be ready, hopefully Morrow is sent down to start this year(unlikely, I know) and will be in contention for a spot in the rotation in 2008.
That would be a young team, for sure, but fun to watch.
#71 2) grover doesn’t platoon
Hargrove is notorious for this, just look at B-R lineups and batting orders used, and you’ll see a trend we all already know.
So far this year, the M’s have used 14 different lineups (not batting orders). Now injuries play a factor but if you look at the rest of the AL, Boston is closest with 18, and all others are in 20-40 range.
What does this mean, nothing of course. But, if I were a manager on the HOT seat, I’d be trying every lineup combination on the books to try and win. I think this just proves the Hargrove non-chalance claim from a previous post. He’s just sitting there, “ho-hum I guess I have to play these players.” If he were to at least try everything, he can tell ownership that he did try his best. But right now I don’t see it. He’s probably thinking, “It’s not my fault, Bill gave me those players.”
In the first place, Gwynn wasn’t slow, in the second place, he had extra-base power, and in the third place, he wasn’t a DH.
The Mariner offense is terrible enough to make Vidro look like he’s contributing. He’s second in onbase on a team with a godawful onbase average. He’s still bad: he’s a DH and #3 hitter with a slugging average in the 370s. He’s a double play threat every time he’s up with a man on first. Even his onbase average is less valuable than it looks, since he’s just about the least likely guy on the team to come around and score. It’s not just the money: he’s bad.
we will probably have two SP spots next year…i doubt they will re-sign ramirez or weaver…and where i like baek as a number 5, there will be “better” options in the free agent market next year…the only locks are THE KING, wash, and batista…
Among the many problems with the Vidro trade scenarios is the fact that the Mariners, the broadcasters, and most fans think he’s having a very good season and was one of Bavasi’s few good FA signings. He also has the benefit of being compared to Carl Everett, and to a lesser degree Spiezio and Aurilia, so he’s got a long way to fall before most people start to think of him as a problem.
I’ll never get tired of Rick Rizzs talking about how he does all the things you want a #2 hitter to do, like take pitches and unselfishly move runners over by hitting weak groundouts.
and he’s the one guy the sports-talk folks can point to as ‘having success’ (without having to think about what they are actually saying)
72
Of course Beltre is overpaid, he hits, at the very least, as well as Vidro while playing all-world defense. Vidro is a basically pinch hitter, he’s worth $300k, nothing more. Beltre is worth as much as any other verteran 3B out there that can do a decent job.
95- Beltre is the best defender in the league and will have a better second half as always…yes, he is overpaid, but most free agents are overpaid…that’s a fact of baseball…but vidro’s contract gives me panic attacks…
no I’m not kidding:
I think Baek has “found” his out pitch–change-up. Watching his last few starts, I think he is exactly what organizations need out of #5 SP.
1. Cheap
2. Eats Innings
3. Throws strikes (goes hand in hand with 2.)
4. Knows his place (i.e. doesn’t complain)
5. Expendable (1-2 yr contracts max)
6. Young, preferably with options left
I know go ahead and start blasting me, but FA starting pitchers want more money and think they are TOR guys.
as i stated earlier, i think baek is a fine #5… we have the ACE-King Felix, a number 3-5 (wash, batista, baek)…we just need a stud #2…morrow? that would be nice…
I think the most sensible thing the M’s could reasonably do would be to callup Jones, give Jason Ellison the boot (sorry Jim), and use Jones 3-4 days a week. He plays some RF against RHP to give Guillen a day off, he plays CF once in a blue moon to give Ichiro a day off, he plays LF against all LHP and occasional RHP, giving Ibanez and Vidro days off with Raul shifting to DH on Vidro’s rest days.
This makes sense. It’s also waaaaaay too complicated for Hargrove to keep in his little brain, even if he was philosophically inclined to planning these sorts of regular rest platoons, which he isn’t.
Ellison is this year’s Charles Gipson, I fear. But without the fan websites (yet) (as far as I know).
Jones reminds me more of Alfonso Soriano than Hunter or Cameron, but I think that’s just the long legs (and the occasional scenic route he took to a ball when he was up last year).
i dug Gipson…Bochachica too…
Think the answer is to trade Ichiro before the July deadline and put Jones in CF to replace him. Ichiro will leave to play for a contender next year. The M’s desparatly need starting pitching. How about Ichiro to Boston (replaces Coco Crisp)..and Jon Lester to the M’s. Ichiro plays for a contender…probably willing to sign a long term contract with Boston..gets to play with Matsuzaka. M’s get a quality young lefty who is home grown
doesn’t lester have injury problems?
recovering from cancer…but apperas to have a claen bill of health
i knew it was something…
What is A. Jones ML service status…Don’t we save a year in free-agency by keeping him down for awhile longer?..Seems like the play is to trade Guillen at the Deadline and bring up W.Blat, A.Jones, or both….or the dreaded Ichiro trade. I would keep Ichiro but if we are out of it and he is clearly gone you move him then.
I think it was Non-Hodgkins lymphoma, my mom had that back in ‘95-’96, and it came back in ‘99. Not to say it woul happen to Lester, but it will always be out there.
We’ve talked about this scenario before…it doesn’t make sense for Boston to trade for Ichiro because they have a very similar player (Ellsbury) in their minor league system.
Does Bavasi have a track record with trading Stars, or Fan-favorites, mid-season? I don’t count the Moyer trade, since that was a nicety so Jaime could pitch for a contender.
Jones is not the guy in Tacoma they ought to bring up to replace Bloomquist as the utility guy. Morse is that guy. Bloomquist is a no-hit, OK defense guy, Morse is a good-hit, so-so defense guy. Curto said last week that Morse has been playing 3B regularly and doing OK. And his OF play has improved (could it not?).
It has to be Jones to LF, Ibanez to DH, Vidro to pinch-hitter and part-time DH. Use interleague play as the excuse to make the move. Sit Jones against tough RHP.
As far as the sunk cost issue, the problem isn’t recognizing that Vidro’s contract is a sunk cost. It’s admitting to the fans that you made a bad move, which will come as a huge shock to the casual fan who sees Vidro’s .300 average and thinks he’s great. If you punt him, those fans will see it as a white flag and stop buying tickets. Same goes for Sexson. They’ll never do that while Vidro is hitting .300.
I really doubt that means anything to Ichiro.
I thought Ichiro and Matsuzaka had no desire to play together.
I’m going to be a bit of a contrarian here.
Until there’s an everyday spot for Jones to play, I don’t see the need to bring him up.
I suspect by late July, there will be an everyday spot for him to play, one way or another (injury, player sucking ass to the point of being benched, bail-out trade). The problem seems insoluble now, it may not in a month or two.
I’m not sold on the proposition Jones is ready, at least not ready to play corner outfield in the majors– he’s started to hit for power, but just in the last few weeks. His numbers are looking like he’s turned the corner (maybe a few all-star appearances down the road), but give him a month more in Tacoma to see if this growth is sustained. Many of the roadblocks mentioned above may have worked themselves out in a month as well….
I still think that Ichiro is going to help solve the problem by the trade deadline by letting the team know his intentions. If he doesn’t want to re-sign here, the M’s will have to trade him by July and install Jones in center. If he tells them he wants to stay, they’ll need to decide whether to leave him in center or move him back to right. I suspect it will be the latter, in which case Jones comes up to play center in the second half and the M’s try to trade somebody else before the deadline. I’d love it if it’s Sexson, but for reasons Dave has explained ad nauseum,it seems more likely that Guillen would go. Given the need for left handed hitters and the intrinsic lack of imagination in the FO, I think we’re stuck with both Ibanez and Vidro through next year.
Dukes looks really good now…from ESPN, “The wife of Tampa Bay Devil Rays rookie outfielder Elijah Dukes filed for a restraining order against her husband and said she fears for her life, The St. Petersburg Times reported Wednesday.”
Jones is not the guy in Tacoma they ought to bring up to replace Bloomquist as the utility guy. Morse is that guy. Bloomquist is a no-hit, OK defense guy, Morse is a good-hit, so-so defense guy. Curto said last week that Morse has been playing 3B regularly and doing OK. And his OF play has improved (could it not?).
Morse would be a botched abortion at 2B/SS, so he’s not really a replacement for Bloomquist.
Morse is looking more and more like a poor man’s version of Jeff Conine- basically a RH corner OF/corner IF. If by some miracle we had traded Sexson during the offseason and gotten a manager who could platoon without orders from the front office, I could see him being Broussard’s platoon partner at 1B, plus spelling Raul at DH or LF a bit as a 200-300 PA player, but the Mariners need right handed corner position players right now like fat kids need hot fudge sundaes- we’re so overstocked on RHB right now anyhow that we don’t have anywhere to play Adam Jones, who’s the superior player, let alone Mike Morse.
In other news, Giambi is reported to have failed an amphetamines test within the past year. Which makes his comments a few days ago even more unbelieveable.
112 — I find myself agreeing with you. Without a ready solution, there’s no real reason to force the issue.
Ok, this is a stretch…but what about a Giambi for Sexon and WEAVER trade to the Yankees sound? The Yankees need pitching… pretty badly. Giambi needs a change of scenery. Exchange of problems…?
Oh, and on the subject of Bloomquist: he’s on pace for his lowest number of plate appearances (around 125, about 40% of last year) since he joined the 25 man roster in 2003.
Given that he’s actually FINALLY being used somewhat appropriately (as a 25th man… though Ellison should be playing in the OF over him), I’m not so concerned with his level of suck.
I also believe if there isn’t a full time spot available for a talent like that there’s no sense in bringing him up. Good point 112.
119 — Oh, yeah … Weaver worked out so well in NY last time. I’ll bet they’re dying to get him back.
119 – Giambi has has a full no-trade clause and just said he doesn’t want to go to Anaheim. Why would he come here?
And why would we want him?
There’s a fairly simple way to give him a look to see if his recent success translates to the majors–put Raul on the 15-day DL, give him time to recover from the back spasms, and bring up AJ to play LF. Anything wrong with a 15-day tryout?
True, true. But they are in such dire need of some pitching… And the M’s could pick up a LH first Baseman with some pop. Jones in LF, Ibañez at DH, sit Vidro and use him as a PH.
119
No.
123-
Why would we want Giambi? Was that serious?
124
“There’s a fairly simple way to give him a look to see if his recent success translates to the majors–put Raul on the 15-day DL, give him time to recover from the back spasms, and bring up AJ to play LF. Anything wrong with a 15-day tryout?”
I’d imagine there is some downside with MLB service time and free-agency/arby to consider.
He bats left handed…can bring an attitude to the team, has some pop, he “needs” to get away from the NY media and fans, etc… And there are rumors about Giambi and Anaheim, so someone in NY or in Giambi’s camp is sending out feelers.
I really hope Jones impresses the the suits that he belongs here enough that we are not the suckers who end up giving Torii Hunter 5/65 (heh, at least that) this fall.
I smell a genius Bavasi trade coming, Ichiro,Baek,Feirabend and Balentien for Russ Ortiz and Rich Aurilia.
Seriously though, does anyone else get the feeling that there’s going to be a trade of Mariners prospects or players who can play for bums who can’t. I just get a gut feeling that Bavasi as long as he has a job will force Seattle to live with Horam, Batista, and Weaver and move Feirabend, Balentein, Baek and Ichiro for more bench type players with substantial contracts left.
This is an absolute awesome post/thread….
127 – He makes 21 million this year and next. He can’t run. He can’t field. He isn’t hitting. He makes 21 million this year and next. He’s 36. He’s slugging .449. He makes 21 million this year and next.
Need I go on?
Here’s how the Giambi situation fits in…
Giambi is released by the Yankees because of his admission (sort of) to using steroids and his failed drug test for greenies. Sexson starts to heat up. Yankees take Sexson and his remaining salary in exchange for some Mentos and a Liter of Coke. Jones goes into LF. Ibañez to 1b. Everyone is happy! Mariners rid themselves Sexson’s dead weight salary and bring up the Centerfielder of the Future to get some experience at the ML level before Ichiro skips town.
Sheer genius 134. That’s a more likely scenario in the real world. But we live in a world of awful trades…and second chances, and we root for the Mariners. Also, another LH bat with some power would be pretty nice.
Maybe the Mariners could benefit from Giambi being on the team, he could help JUICE up the players, make Vidro go from 2 homeruns/4 doubles guy to a 3 homeruns/5 doubles guy, or make Lopez and Betacort balloon into muscle heads in no time, kind of like how Mighty Mouse Bret Boone did. All the kidding aside, I would never want Giambi on the Mariners, makes sense though with the recent aqcuistions, Bavasi has a thing for 1b bums who can barely play both sides of the ball. Eduardo Perez, Ben Broussard, Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez (He’s a closet 1b/DH, he just doesn’t want to admit it), Scott Speizio, Rich Aurilia.
133
I thought Giambi actually made $25 million this year and next kind of like Sexson making $15.5 this year and next year because he only got paid like $4/5 million his first year so they could afford Beltre.
137 – Yep, Sexon 15.5 and Weaver 8.325 = 23.825
Giambi = 23.428
The Mariners would also be dumping some salary. Some… not much.
134/135
What about that is sheer genius? Why would you trade Sexson once he starts heating up? So we can pay him half his salary to be awful for us and get nothing out of his good spells?
Unfortunately, the Mariners couldn’t pay a team to take Weaver or Sexson. So with that said Bavasi’s going to trade Baek or somebody else and for us to live with both.
They should secretly spike Vidro’s meals and drinks with a plethora of performance enhancing substances, that way Vidro could possibly perform like he did in 2000 or burnout so they could just drop him.
[spell Sexson correctly]
140 – They’re proven major league players. Weaver’s struggled before and come out of it, and so has Sexson. I’m just trying to come up with some scenarios for the conundrum, that’s all. Jones does greatly improve the outfield defensively. Ibañez is going nowhwere. I’m sure some folks didn’t like Phelps for Buhner at the time either… 141- HUH? Are YOU serious?
I tend to agree with EC’s sentiments about leaving Jones be for the short term. He’s ready for the big time, but he hasn’t yet reached the point where he’s wasting his time in AAA. He won’t learn as much there as he would playing everyday with the Mariners, but I don’t think leaving him in AAA will stunt his growth. It’s not crazy to think that over the next two months or so, one of Guillen, Ibanez, Vidro, or Sexson could get injured, at which point the Mariners could fit Jones more easily into the lineup.
As long as Hargrove’s in charge, I don’t really want to see Jones in a backup role, since that will mean a lot of time spent sitting around doing nothing.
143 – You need to get back into reality, bub.
139: What we’ve paid Sexson this year is irrelevant to the argument…it’s sunk costs already. What we gain is $15.5 Million to spend in the off-season which could be used to re-sign Ichiro or another pitcher.
Currently, the M’s are a mediocre club. We hover around .500…beating bad teams but getting clobbered by good teams. Our ExpWP is .440. We’ve been pretty lucky this year and we’ll never go to the WS with this pitching staff (nor with our batting lineup). In order to get better, you have to have a plan and make some moves to give up value at times with the long-term picture in mind to get better than you are. If someone sees some value in Sexson, I feel the M’s should trade him just to dump his over-priced salary. You don’t pay someone $15.5 Million to bet hot 1/2 a season. That’s just absurd!!! You pay that for players to be consistently good. Saying that we just need to wait for the lights in Sexson to come on in July when the weather heats up is just a farce thrust upon us fans by the team and media.
Remember when the Red Sox were making their WS run in 2004. Epstein made a shrewd move during the season that many questioned. He gave up Garciaparra (superstar) to land Cabrera and Mientkiewicz for their defense. He felt that was a weakness on their team. He had a plan…and it paid off.
This team has way too many holes that need to be filled and I am waiting for a plan other than “do anything we can to win today”. That’s not a plan. That’s desperation and it’s what takes teams to the cellar of their division every time!
145 – Like there isn’t a reality distortion field in MLB or the Yankees. Didn’t the Yankees pick up Olerud after the M’s dumped him? Didn’t they trade for Aaron Boone? I can think of several of names of players where the Yankees have said…oh yeah, well they’ve performed before, they will again as a Yankee.
In addition, you have to value what Sexson gives you vs. what Jones gives you. I think they’re going to be pretty close. With Jones, you won’t get as much power, but you gain in defense and speed. It might even be a wash in the end. It might help Ibañez focus on his offense and less on playing defense in the outfield and he might benefit. You also might be able to rotate in Big Ben a little more frequently because you don’t have to worry about disrupting any “warming up” or “hot streak” Sexson might (MIGHT) be on.
Is this the future of USSM commenting?
Nope – this will be the last thread for a long time where pointless madeup trades will be allowed.
147 – and they didn’t have to pay 23 million or give up Jason Giambi to get those players.
And do you really think Brian Cashman sees Jeff Weaver as a worthy reclamation project?
Really?
Within a month, the Yanks’ pitching will be as follows:
Wang
Mussina
Pettite
Clemens
Hughes
Not sure where Weaver might fit in there…
Formatting? No, this is definitely a work in progress, and the future is going to be better I’m sure.
Content? Well, yes and no. There’s always at least one nut / crank / troll. If s/he gets too bad, or there gets to be too many of them, they end up in the mod queue or just have their posts nuked to oblivion until they go away or grab a clue.
I’d say this discussion jumped the shark quite a while ago anyway. Fortunately there’s a game in a few hours, so there will be something to talk about beyond wild-eyed ravings about teams taking packages of M’s junk in exchange for a decent player, etc.
Agreed. Pretty good thread for a while, but eventually people just run out of meaningful things to say and it turns into a message board …
Probably should have shut this down around comment 120.
Okay…my point being…
In order for Jones to continue to develop and for the M’s to take advantage of what he has to offer, someone has to go. These are the most likely candidates:
Guillen: Helping the team right now. Has value on the market. Wouldn’t sit the bench quietly and professionally to watch a kid take his at bats.
Sexson: Not helping the team now…but has a history of coming on in the 2nd half. Might have value in a trade if he heats up. M’s will never pay him $15.5 to sit the bench or be waived.
Vidro: Helping the team some (if only that he’s not Everett). Little trade value. Makes too much to sit or be waived. M’s also loose a LH bat.
Ibañez: The face of the M’s and a link to glory days. Might have some trade value for someone who wants a LH bat. But the M’s lose their LH bat.
Of these three, I would like to find an opportunity where Sexson moves along and we juggle the rest.
Nope – this will be the last thread for a long time where pointless madeup trades will be allowed.
Oooh. Oooh. Oooh. I better sneak this one in, then:
Julio Mateo for Elijah Dukes.
Worst-case scenario Jones becomes a regular in 2008 right? That doesn’t sound too bad. I’d love to see the guy earn regular PT but there’s 10 other things I’m more concerned with regarding the M’s long-term success.
143
141, was a joke, cause what I see what Vidro gives the Mariners 8-10hr, 50 Rbi’s, 50 runs from a position that we should be getting way more production from, I mean Jack Cust has already outperformed Vidro at the DH position and it only took him 10 games and $7 million dollars less a year.
143 – Yes Weaver has struggled before and has somewhat rebounded in the NL only and even then he was mediocre at best, not worth what he’s making. It makes no sense for the Yankees to pick up Weaver for a second go around, especially considering the first go-around wasn’t any better than what there getting out of there patch-up minor leaguers who don’t make the millions that Weaver makes. I just don’t understand the reasoning, because if Weaver has shown that he can bounce back like you say and the Yankees who need pitching use that as a reason to take him, then shouldn’t the Mariners keep him instead and move Baek since Weaver will bounce back so much so that another team is willing to take him and his salary? Last time I checked the Mariners still need pitching also.
Nope – this will be the last thread for a long time where pointless madeup trades will be allowed.
Wonderful. It was beginning to look like some people believed magic beans really existed.
Reitsma to the DL…Green back up from Tacoma…
Paul – it should be a three-way deal w/Alberto Callaspo…
What’s the limit of players on the DL for sucking? Does the MLB ever question or investigate bogus use of the DL?
MLB very rarely investigates DL fraud: you pretty much have just run over one of Selig’s grandkids or otherwise incurred his wrath for the league to even bat an eyelash.
Texas managed this a couple years ago, and that’s the only instance I can remember where MLB went after someone.
Wonderful. It was beginning to look like some people believed magic beans really existed.
Magic beans… hilarious. Wait… Steinbrenner has already cornered the market on those… or is it Giambi?
Last time I checked the Mariners still need pitching also.
Let me see, Weaver had a 4.04 ERA and a 5.99 ERA with the Yankees. He’s got a 14.32 ERA with the Mariners.
Dave,
How do Adam Jones’ numbers project if he were moved up to the big club? I’m curious.
If he’s so damn good bring him up and put him in the lineup and quit worrying about this lefty-righty stuff. If he can hit, he can hit. If they had nine Albert Pujolses in the lineup we wouldn’t be worrying about stuff like this.
I wonder: How far away is Triunfel, and is he going to force the same kind of decision on the M’s?
botched abortion
That is one ugly descripter and a hideous visual. EC, you have a much better vocabulary then that.
If you have nine Albert Pujolses, you don’t worry about anything. If you have zero Albert Pujolses — if you don’t even have half an Albert Pujols — you have to worry about the lefty-righty stuff, and other irritating problems that make the brain hurt.
168
meh, i’ll take nine mini-ditkas
167 I thought that was the sign of a good vocabulary.
Russ, have you ever WATCHED Morse play the middle infield? I have. “Hideous” and “ugly” are quite apropos. Morse is not suited to being a middle infield backup. We’d be better off with Dawkins or Chen if we really wanted to punt Bloomquist- and I don’t think either of them would hit any better than he does at this point.
If you have a good fielding middle infield combo (which I think we do), the fielding ability of the backup is not critically important. I’d rather have a guy who can hit and who can play the position if you absolutely need him to than have a guy who can’t hit .100 and plays so-so defense, which is what we’ve got.
A thought to ponder: Could Guillen be sent away before 2008, and Ichiro move back to RF in order to allow Jones to step in?
Sure he could but Guillen is one of the few productive hitters on the team. That swap only makes sense if you get something pretty good back for Guillen. Otherwise you’re just dumping salary.
Except, well, Morse a) doesn’t hit well enough to justify not playing Yuni or Jose regularly, b) can’t really play SS or 2B very well AT ALL, he was horrible at SS during his callup, and I don’t recall him playing much 2B if ever, c) Willie’s actually being used less than he’s been in years past- correctly as a deep bench backup (though he should ONLY be playing the infield, and Ellison should be the primary OF backup), and d) Willie’s not a .100 hitter any more than he was a .455 hitter in 2002- he is what he is, a .250 hitter with nothing else but speed and a flexible glove, going through a cold streak.
Theoretically, you could have Dmitri Young, Jason Giambi or David Ortiz as your backup middle infielder, too, and just let them field with their bat… but you’d be coughing up too much defense. Morse really doesn’t belong in the middle infield for the Mariners, period, and Morse is not really THAT much better a RH bench bat than Ellison, anyway (.296/.347/.440 vs LHP lifetime), so I’m not very convinced we NEED a RH bench bat who plays bad defense, on a team overloaded with RH position players, if it takes away the only credible middle infield backup, the best pinch runner on the roster… and we’re discussing maybe 100 plate appearances between now and September callups at the most.
Does anyone think Ichiro would object to moving back to right field considering how long it took to move him to center field?
In spite of the fact that Raul with 7 u’s is a leftie, he’d be the one you’d trade first just because, well, who is going to take on Richie Sexson’s $14.5 million salary in the thick of a pennant race? Plus, Richie is signed for next year too. So if you traded for Richie, you’d be getting him for 2008 as well as the 2nd half of this year, ouch.
Also, Raul’s trade value is only going to go down, so you might as well trade him now, let’s face it. And plus, the way Ichiro is, well, Ichiro and Guillen seems to be slowly but surely returning to his 2004 on-the-field production version of himself, you may want the re-sign them both next year and with Turbo at DH, this would leave Raul as the odd-man out.
And considering the M’s lineup would then feature 6 right-handed hitters and the fans are already looking for a change, the time will be coming very soon where the Mariners will be looking to trade Sexson and/or Beltre to create the perfect R/L balance and also to free up salary for starting pitching because God knows we’ll need it in the offseason.
Stay tuned kiddies.
#176-Ichiro will do whatever his team asks him to do as long as he feels it would help the team win. Obviously he can play any outfield position, the question will be what the team asks him to do.
You bring him up now as the 4th OFer. If Grover doesn’t play him then fire his ass. Seriously, if Ichiro decides to walk then you want Jones up now getting his ABs so he is ready for the switch when it plays out. If you find a way to move Sexson, Raul, Guillen, Vidro down the road, great! But otherwise you let it play out. This team will be RH heavy until Sexson and/or Beltre are gone (not that I am advocating moving Beltre but that is one place they can get LHed).
Two things I would do to go along with bringing Jones up:
1. Make a “take it or leave it” offer to Ichiro by the ASB. If he declines you trade him.
2. Exercise Guillen’s option. If Ichiro stays you trade him, otherwise you have your RF and CF.
Being treated with respect is very important to Ichiro, I think. Making him a mid-season “take it or leave it” offer is not very respectful.
It’s pretty stupid to leave Jones down in AAA if you’re going to replace Ichiro with him soon. You’d be wiser to let the kid play beside Ichiro the great for a while to pick up good habits.
Calling Adam Jones up to ride the pine for 110 of the next 120 games is not a wise call.
Also, I noticed we’ve all but forgotten WLAD Balentien in this discussion. He’s not as close to the bigs as Adam Jones, but he’s out of options after 2007 and if he maintains a solid pace through 2007, you’re gonna have to make a call with him as well.
As of 2007, sure, Guillen is pretty much one of the team’s best hitters. But is he honestly a key piece of the team’s short-to-long term plans? Does he maintain his performance through all of 2007, let alone into 2008? And what of the subsequent seasons, when you don’t have him under contract and will need to decide his fate? I’m not saying trade him now. But I’m also not saying it’s wise to pencil him in for 2008.
I have trouble with any scenario that includes the phrases “trade Sexson for” or “trade Weaver for”. These are not tradeable commodities. If I have a 1974 Ford LTD with no engine, transmission or paint that’s been outside for 20 years and has a sizeable tree growing up through the back seat, I’m not going to be getting any good deals down at the Lexus dealership.
The correct answer to the conundrum is “bring him up and play him every day regardless of which side he bats from”, but the Mariner answer is paralysis followed by a Jones-for-random-38-year-old-pitcher trade later in the year.
You go to the American League West with the offense you have, not the offense you wish you had, and any negative comments about our DH, 1B, LF, etc. just mean the terrorists win.
Does anyone think Ichiro would object to moving back to right field considering how long it took to move him to center field?
Hmm. The real question is — would Jones object to moving over to RF, should Ichiro stay w/the M’s. I asked him a similar question (“Do you have any thoughts about learning RF this year in Tacoma?”) at the M’s Caravan stop in Oly back in January. His response: “No way, man, I’m a CF now…”
If it meant getting called up to the majors, I can’t imagine Jones would object to playing anywhere on the field.
182: This post was about Jones, therefore Wlad’s been forgotten?
Dave posted about Wlad 2 weeks ago. This one was about Jones, a more important part of the Ms’ future who deserves his own post.
You can’t just talk about Adam Jones and his future with the team in a vacuum. WLAD and anyone that’s involved with the future of that outfield is a factor.
Wlad’s not ready for the majors – Adam Jones is. Therefore, there’s a conundrum with Jones, but not so with Wlad.
Seems simple to me.
Jones is a conundrum. Wlad is an enigma.
So, is Ichiro the riddle?
And, after all the good press today (article in the TNT and elsewhere I believe), Adam Jones looked like absolute CRAP at the plate tonight. Two flyouts and two really miserable swinging strikeouts.
Okay, so I’ve attended all but two of the Rainiers home games thus far this year, but I am most definitely no Dave.
Jones is ready for the big leagues. He’s ready to be an everyday player there. That won’t happen given the Ms present state of affairs due to personnel logjam and foolish on-field roster management. So you leave him in Tacoma for now. I do not want to see this organization trading away a future talent of Jones’ caliber.
If you’re gonna handpick amongst Tacoma’s infielders who could replace Willie, you’re looking at Mike Morse and there are no other options for you. Navarro and Dawkins are hitting either side of (or maybe spot on) .200 against AAA pitching and both have had their fair share of completely boneheaded defensive plays this year. That said, Morse has had a few boneheaded plays himself (one tonight) but he’s been far more consistent all around and can also spend time in the OF as could Willie.
Wlad is great but he’s not ready. I love the guy, but I’m not convinced he’ll BE ready by the time his option year is up. His average has been dropping and he’s been showing some particularly pointless swings of late as well as defensive lapses. He’s not anywhere near as consistent as Jones has become, and that’s the key we’re really talking about that should take you up and let you stay there. Jones has it, and given playing time can keep it and even improve. Morse has it though it’s at an admittedly far lesser (utility player) level. Wlad doesn’t have it yet. Certainly Clement doesn’t (not even hitting .200 I think right now, looked clueless again tonight at the plate).
You have a conundrum, but it’s based on a truly bizarre assumption at its’ root. That assumption being, we’re contending this year. Om, sure.
So leave him in Tacoma. If you can’t make a move without impairing the team in the process, then don’t.
I think you missed the whole point of the post, Gomez.
While the team is in “contention” someone will have to underperform drastically for Jones to get a shot. Really, only two players are potential benchables in positions Jones could play – Vidro and Guillen. Its fairly inconceivable that Sexson, Ibanez, or Ichiro are getting benched in any circumstances this year. The M’s are pleased with what Vidro and Guillen are doing this year, so we’re looking at probably at least a month of slumping before management would move on benching either of the two. Best-case scenario for Jones if the M’s keep winning – Vidro’s average free-falls to .260 and Jones is called up to LF in late June.
If the M’s continue to lose ground in the AL West, then the issue becomes easier. Guillen is a very marketable commodity and trading him would allow Ichiro to shift back to RF. If Vidro carries his .300 avg. into July, he’ll also have some value to other teams that can’t get past that stat – especially if the team can demonstrate he can play 2B again. Then of course there’s trading Ichiro.
Unless someone gets hurt, we won’t see Jones until July at the earliest I’m guessing.
Of course if I was running the team there’s no question that Vidro goes to the bench, Raul goes to DH, Jones goes to CF, Ichiro goes to RF, and Guillen goes to LF. Tomorrow. That move would also free up the team to trade Broussard to someone like the Twins.
Why would you move Ichiro out of CF? Do you believe that Adam Jones is a better CF defensively than Ichiro? Would Ichiro interpret that as a disgrace of some sort? As a former CF, CF is the “commander” of the outfield. Putting a rookie at CF and moving your other outfielders around doesn’t seem like a good move. Unless Ichiro is itching to get out of CF.
My question is: will it seriously impair Adam Jones to stay in Tacoma at least for the rest of the year? Does bringing him up significantly improve the team?
Making a move just to make a move, bring a guy up just to bring him up, is generally a rash line of reasoning. The guy in question would have to be a truly special talent to warrant it, and you’ve already mentioned in an earlier thread that while Jones is good, he’s not necessarily special.
Is there some sort of study of recent guys whose performance in AAA clearly indicated they were ‘ready’, but were left behind for the season due to a lack of openings with the big club?
And don’t worry, Dave. I see your point, that there really isn’t an answer here and it’s a case where you have an MLB ready talent in Tacoma that you have no real place for right now in Seattle. These are all just thoughts and questions.
This post wasn’t so much about Adam Jones being impaired, as much as it was a note that the 5th or 6th best major league hitter in the entire organization can’t find a spot on the 25 man roster.
Jones won’t be harmed by staying in Tacoma, no, but the Mariners playoff chances will be by not having him on the team.