UZRs for 2007

DMZ · June 1, 2007 at 2:35 pm · Filed Under General baseball 

By way of MGL (direct link to the spreadsheet). There’s some… we’ll call it counter-intuitive results in there.


29 Responses to “UZRs for 2007”

  1. boxc on June 1st, 2007 2:39 pm

    Well, Beltre has committed a lot of errors this season, no? The rest seems to fall into line, although I had no idea Lopez was that good.

  2. boxc on June 1st, 2007 2:42 pm

    Oh, and there is a .zip link to a spreadsheet of all the results from 03-07.

    Beltre has saved the 8th most runs over the last 4 years.

  3. boxc on June 1st, 2007 2:45 pm

    Edit to say seventh. Gahhhh i r tarded

  4. Chris Miller on June 1st, 2007 2:51 pm

    Lopez probably isn’t that good. UZR needs heavy regression to be a useful estimator of true talent, and usually takes about 3 years of data before there’s any kind of confidence, so a 3rd of a season probably isn’t indicative of true talent.

  5. boxc on June 1st, 2007 2:53 pm

    Well if you look at the 03-07 number it has him for 232 games averaged out to 8 runs/150.

    At shortstop, it does have him at -13 runs per 150, but only in 43 games.

  6. scraps on June 1st, 2007 2:59 pm

    Alfonso Soriano??

  7. scraps on June 1st, 2007 3:01 pm

    I love that Prince Fielder is a lousy.

  8. scraps on June 1st, 2007 3:05 pm

    Does Adam Everett finally win a gold glove this year?

  9. tangotiger on June 1st, 2007 3:05 pm

    I would definitely focus on the 2003-07 data.

  10. Sammy on June 1st, 2007 3:16 pm

    Questionable results:
    Betancourt’s range factor of +1
    Ichiro’s +5 range, but Sizemore is a +12? Really?

  11. boxc on June 1st, 2007 3:18 pm

    Tango, a huge “THANK YOU” for posting these. With all of the fishy fielding stats out there, it’s nice to see the most thought out one out there.

    Interesting to see Utley up there, normally people rag on his fielding.

  12. phil333 on June 1st, 2007 3:23 pm

    Robinson Cano as +2. Really?

  13. Churchill on June 1st, 2007 3:34 pm

    These numbers aren’t necessarily telling of how good the player actually IS, but rather how good he’s been during the time frame.

  14. Sammy on June 1st, 2007 3:36 pm

    How does a player changing positions within that time frame effect their range rating (i.e. Ichiro moving from right to center)?

  15. em on June 1st, 2007 3:43 pm

    There is a reason we cannot rely on defensive metrics as a reliable indicator of defensive value. UZR is no exception.

  16. Chris Miller on June 1st, 2007 3:45 pm

    #13, yup, and not to mention the ammount of regression required to trust UZR or any ZR stat is huge. I agree w/ Tangotiger #9, use the whole data set not 07.

    #14, there is usually some loss from moving to a new position, so either Ichiro is a natural or he’s losing some points from the move. I suspect it’s the former not the latter w/ Ichiro! He was meant for center.

  17. bhsmarine on June 1st, 2007 3:46 pm

    Would the best way to evaluate defense be look at all the numbers and watch some games and put it all together? It seems like every defense ranking has some kind of defect.

    Matt Holiday at +7? He looks slow at times out there and I have seen him take some bad routes and get bad jumps at times.

  18. scraps on June 1st, 2007 3:46 pm

    Ichiro’s played plenty of center, after all, just not in the U.S.

  19. Chris Miller on June 1st, 2007 3:51 pm

    #17, the best would be to track the players and ball at all times, to get the speed, trajectory and angle of the ball, as well as positioning of the fielder.

  20. bhsmarine on June 1st, 2007 3:54 pm

    19- That would be the best, can’t imagine how much work would go into that though.

  21. Mat on June 1st, 2007 4:02 pm

    Alfonso Soriano??

    Robinson Cano as +2. Really?

    Ichiro’s +5 range, but Sizemore is a +12? Really?

    Reggie Sanders is hitting .367 so far this season. Kelly Shoppach is hitting .373. Paul Konerko is hitting .229.

    This doesn’t make batting average a useless stat. It just means it’s early in the season.

  22. Joe Bag o' Doughnuts on June 1st, 2007 4:04 pm

    I’m shocked Manny Ramirez is second from last in the list.

  23. Manzanillos Cup on June 1st, 2007 4:08 pm

    This may be way out there, but has anyone ever thought about using WPA for a defensive rating?

  24. Chris Miller on June 1st, 2007 4:13 pm

    #23, you’d need to figure out how to properly assign fielding to WPA (vs dinging the pitcher). Also if you gave them a WPA increment for plays made, you’d still need to know which plays they didn’t make and assign those with negative WPA values. If you had that data, you could construct a neutral defensive stat w/o using WPA.

  25. Sammy on June 1st, 2007 4:16 pm

    23. How would such a thing work? WPA is based on game situations and related to leverage index, neither of which have much to do with defensive ability.

  26. Chris Miller on June 1st, 2007 4:18 pm

    #25, it could work if you could reliably divide responsibility for each play to the fielder and the pitcher. The problem is, on a play by play basis that’d be very hard to do accurately.

  27. Manzanillos Cup on June 1st, 2007 4:41 pm

    I realize that you would have to assign a certain amount of credit for each change in WPA to each defender involved in the play (and maybe even a coach!) – and figuring out how to assign that credit is kind of the Holy Grail anyway.

    I was just thinking that when a fielder makes a great OOZ out, all the WPA still goes to the pitcher. It’d be cool to say “that catch was worth x wins.”

  28. vj on June 1st, 2007 4:53 pm

    Splitting WPA between pitchers and fielders would be highly subjective, like scorring errors. What you probably could do is apply league averages on balls in play and split between pitchers and the fielders making the play on that basis. Or apply run values of batted ball types if you want to refine the split. Whether that’s all that worthwhile is a different question – if RBIs is not a good evaluative tool for context dependency, this applies just as much to WPA.

  29. Adam S on June 1st, 2007 5:58 pm

    Wow, even having moved to RF, Griffey still sucks. Guess his legs are gone. Cincinnati must be purgatory for pitchers. It’s a hitters park and you have an OF of Dunn, Freel, Griffey, and Hamilton, each of whom is -6 so far.

    Hmm, Freel and Hamilton are the two worst CF in baseball and Griffey has been the worst the past few years; is it possible there’s a ballpark or pitching staff effect that isn’t being accounted for?

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