M’s Draft Board

Dave · June 7, 2007 at 6:35 am · Filed Under Mariners 

Okay, today’s the day. Based on conversations with people inside and out of the organization, this is what I believe the M’s draft board looks like heading into the first round. The order isn’t as important as the names themselves, as there’s several spots (#7 and #8) where I basically just had to pick one, because both Aumont and Schmidt have their supporters within the organization. However, I’d be stunned if the pick wasn’t one of these 11 eleven guys.

1. David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt
2. Ross Detwiler, LHP, Missouri State
3. Josh Vitters, 3B, Cypress HS
4. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatsworth HS
5. Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson
6. Casey Weathers, RHP, Vanderbilt
7. Philipee Aumont, RHP, Quebec – No High School
8. Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Chatsworth HS
10. Beau Mills, 1B/DH, Lewis-Clark State
11. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Norwell HS Arkansas

Notably absent are Scott Boras’ three “out of the box” prospects. The Mariners won’t consider drafting Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, or Matt Harvey, and they’re rooting like crazy for all three to go in the top ten. The problem, however, is that signability questions about the trio are threatening to push all three out of the top half of the first round, as no team is as of yet giving indications that they are willing to pay Boras’ over-slot premium for these guys.

That creates some problems for the M’s, because it means that the teams picking ahead of them are going to be picking guys off who, on talent, should be available at #11. Philppe Aumont, for instance, is a guy the M’s would have a really hard time passing over, even with their strong desire to go with a college arm who can get to the majors quickly. However, with Aumont being the easiest sign in the first round, he could very well end up going in the top 5, and it will be an upset if he slides to #11.

The same goes with Daniel Moskos, who we talked about on Tuesday. It sounds like San Francisco won’t let Moskos get past them at #10.

If the draft breaks out as expected, the out of the box guys will slide past the Mariners, and the guys at the top of their board will be picked off one by one before they are on the clock.

So, at this point, the likely selection is Arkansas LHP Nick Schmidt. If you like Jarrod Washburn, you’ll like Schmidt. 88-92 with a four seam fastball, above average change-up, mediocre curveball, succeeds with command, lacks an outpitch, very little upside, and projects as a #5 starter in the majors. A few days ago, I called him a left-handed Joe Blanton. That was probably too generous, in retrospect, as Blanton’s stuff is a tick better across the board than Schmidt’s.

In his favor, Schmidt has been durable, knows how to pitch, and isn’t that far away from the majors. The M’s would likely bring him to spring training next year and let him compete for a rotation spot, and he’d replace Horacio Ramirez as the back-end starter whose reasons for optimism are his team’s home park and defense.

Schmidt’s not a lock to be the pick – the M’s are hopeful that Ross Detwiler or Josh Vitters will slide because of their agents requests for above slot money, but both are considered far more signable than the Boras trio, and it’s very unlikely that either gets out of the top ten. The M’s also really like Matt Dominguez, and if he’s around at #11, it will make the pick more interesting, at least, as he some big fans in the organization. And, there’s still Casey Weathers, the closer from Vanderbilt who has the velocity and slider to be effective in the majors this year.

However, if you put a gun to my head, I’m saying that Nick Schmidt is the guy the M’s go with. Aumont, Moskos, and Dominguez could be selected if they end up at #11, or they could go with the high power reliever over the back end starter if Weathers is there. But you can forget about pretty much anyone else. The M’s aren’t going to take Wieters, Porcello, or Harvey, and most of the other names bandied about aren’t as high on the M’s board as the guys we’ve covered.

We’ll find out for sure in a few hours. Personally, I’m rooting for Philippe Aumont, a 6’7 groundball machine with all kinds of projection, but I don’t think the M’s will have the chance to call his name out. In the end, it’s probably going to be a low risk, low reward college pitcher.


Morning Edit: As things begin to shake out, we’re getting a better idea of what’s going to happen. With KC settling on Josh Vitters, the likelyhood of the M’s getting a chance at HS 3rd baseman Matt Dominguez have gotten significantly better. They like Dominguez a lot as an athletic third baseman with a good bat and great glove, and if Moskos isn’t there, the M’s may go offense.

Afternoon Edit: Jim Callis is now reporting that the Royals have flip-flopped, and are going to take Mike Moustakas over Josh Vitters at #2. Vitters is basically a lock to go to the Cubs at #3, however, which then leaves Dominguez as the option for anyone looking for a HS 3rd baseman in the 4-10 range. Weathers just became a lot more likely pick. Nuts.


124 Responses to “M’s Draft Board”

  1. scraps on June 7th, 2007 11:12 am

    Owners and MLBPA are here to stay… Let’s talk players and picks on this post

    I’m sure Dave of Derek will tell us to shut up if they want us to. Thanks.

  2. Steve Nelson on June 7th, 2007 11:17 am

    How is the entire concept of a draft rigged toward owners? Let’s consider the ways.

    We’ll start by assuming that you just graduated from college with an accounting degree and you’re joining the labor force.

    But you can’t negotiate with accounting firm you wish, nor may accountants who are interested in hiring you contact you directly. Instead, there is a draft in which the one employer who selects you is the only one you are allowed to sign with. If you don’t like the firm that drafted you, you’re only option if you want to continue in accounting is to take a job with a tax-prep firm such as H&R Block (that’s probably the accounting equivalent of playing baseball in an independent league) and maybe wait until next year to try your luck in the draft again.


    Now, if you as an accounting grad happen to think that is exactly the system that would work best, I suppose you will conclude that talent drafts are fair and reasonable. In fact, if that is your bent, you’re probably wondering why the concept of talent drafts isn’t expanded beyond professional sports.

    It really doesn’t make any difference how strong the union. If a person doesn’t have the ability to solicit and receive multiple offers, the deck is inherently stacked against that person.

    I think that for most of us, though, we would consider the deck stacked against us if we were only allowed to negotiate with one employer and our only alternative if we didn’t like what we were offered was to not work in our chosen profession or to work at a level far below our apparent abilities.

  3. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:21 am

    stuck at work…can’t watch…how many minutes do they have b/w picks?

  4. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 11:22 am


  5. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:23 am

    Who was the last accountant trying to win a world championship and get signed for a couple million dollars? Sports are not regular jobs…

    Very few top prospects would go play for Kansas City for half the price of a competitor with money. Some clubs would have problems stocking their minor leagues with any sort of talent.

  6. PositivePaul on June 7th, 2007 11:24 am

    M’s = screwed now. Dang.

  7. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:26 am

    don’t the royals need pitching?

  8. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:28 am

    They don’t need a 3rd or 1st baseman…

  9. Otto on June 7th, 2007 11:29 am


    No they have Gil Meche!

  10. terrybenish on June 7th, 2007 11:30 am

    Union doesn’t represent the kids being drafted, so its a little strange that the negotiations occured.

  11. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:33 am

    they must be drafting on talent, and not need…

  12. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 11:34 am

    WOO! Moskos off the board!

  13. David J. Corcoran I on June 7th, 2007 11:35 am


  14. F-Rod on June 7th, 2007 11:35 am

    Damn..I he looked pretty inticing

  15. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:35 am

    i take it you guys didn’t want him…lol…

  16. ConorGlassey on June 7th, 2007 11:36 am

    And BTW – if you’re bummed out being a Mariners fan, just be glad you’re not a Pirates fan.

  17. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:36 am

    well…pitt did trade their closer to atlanta…

  18. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:36 am

    Orioles might actually want a reliever here.

  19. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:39 am

    after what we’ve seen the last three days…they have to take a pitcher…

  20. lokiforever on June 7th, 2007 11:39 am

    102 Steve Nelson

    The main difference is that in the private sector of businesses, there’s no lip service to the notion of competitive parity , just an aversion to monopolies. In pro sports, there is an effort, better in the NFL than MLB, to keep games competitive. The M’s, nor any team would want to compete with the Yankees for every draft pick, and while the players might like it in the short run, it would lead to weak competitive contests, lower fan interest, fewer gate receipts at cities other than LA / Boston/ New York. It would start the path down a slippery slope.

    In private commerce, as long as I’m not subjected to monopolisitc pricing, and collusions, I don’t care if E&Y is 10X better than Price Waterhouse, because they recruit out of college better and pay their new grads more. I’d rather have that choice to pay more and get a better product.

    Interesting analogy, but different in too many areas to really apply here. (The elitist athlete and high salaries was already brought up) The baseball player who doesn’t like his contract with KC, can always fall back on his accounting degree.

  21. David J. Corcoran I on June 7th, 2007 11:40 am

    This draft is going well so far.

  22. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 11:40 am

    Or someone to block the wild pitches apparently…

  23. bakomariner on June 7th, 2007 11:41 am

    go to the updated post for dave and the rest…

  24. bhsmarine on June 7th, 2007 12:13 pm

    YAY! We didn’t F that one up! Or at least we don’t think so as of now…
    Good to see them do the right thing instead of grab a random guy that can help next year.

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