Size of the swing
DMZ · June 18, 2007 at 12:25 am · Filed Under Mariners
There are any number of caveats that should be inserted here, and like with WPA, I trust you to find and apply them on your own.
Mariners Playoff odds, overall, as predicted by Clay’s Monte Carlo method at Basball Prospectus:
June 13th, 29%
June 14th, 25%
June 15th, 20%
June 16th: 15%
June 17th: 12%
June 18th: 10%
The Mariners had been over 28% twice since April 20th. June 18th’s 10.538% is their lowest on the season.
When we were in the mix for a playoff spot, I found myself eagerly anticipating a look at the box scores each day, checking the standings, and just generally feeling a way I haven’t felt about the team since that last 93 win group. Short lived though it was, I’m glad I got a chance to be excited about my team again.
I’m glad too but it is also pretty frustrating because we can all clearly see how this team could be better with changes that Bavasi/Hargrove could make.
Obviously this losing streak is a big reason for the rapid drop in playoff odds, but the fact that the Angels / Oakland continue to win, and the recent surge of the Yankees (in the Wild card race) is also a huge part of it. I think its just a little too soon to give up on this team, though playoff odds are much lower than what we would like it to be at.
Yeah these last five games sucked, but I’m not giving up on this team. I think they’re going to put together a couple of winning streaks leading up to the all-star break.
If anyone had said at the beginning of the season that this team would be around seven games out anywhere near the all-star break, I would have laughed. They could totally tank in the short time leading up to the break, but for now only 10 teams in the majors have a better record. After losing five in a row! Shocking. And half of me wishes it wasn’t true so as to force a regime change. The other half of me hopes this stiched-together-frankenstein of a team keeps lumbering through weeks where they win more than lose.
I almost fear regime change, not because the M’s don’t need it, but because the new Regime might not be what were hoping for.
I agree, it’s not quite time to sell, but it’s getting there quick.
At least this drop out of contention can let the team get down to business. By business I mean trade Ichiro to stock the lacking farm system, put Adam Jones in CF where he hopefully thrives for the next decade, and send Morrow down to develop secondary pitches and turn into the 2-3 type starter the M’s need him to be next year. With control of a breaking pitch and a changeup he could even develop into an ace in a few years. I think he is that good at missing bats.
It was a nice little run, but in all likelyhood this team is a year or two from actually competing. It was fun to look forward to looking at the standings for awahile.
2006 St. Louis Cardinals finished 83-78.
I know they played in a terrible division, but last years world series winning just proves the point that most teams can win in spite of injuries, poor GM decisions, or poor on field management.
So even after a crappy weekend, i think its still a LONG ways before anyone starts thinking about selling the farm…or selling for the farm.
I would like to be able to put on rose colored glasses and say that the starting pitching is actually pretty good. I would like the defense to be solid and not full of holes. I would like it if the Angels, Oakland and the Yankees did not have solid track records with pitching staffs superior to the M’s. The reality is this is a rebuilding year as is next year. The Mariner’s need to replace Bavasi with someone who will start the process knowing that they will have a job for a few years.
If they were going to trade Ichiro — and I very very much hope they don’t — could we set the bar a bit higher than just stocking the farm system?
Here are my recommendations, whatever they’re worth.
Job 1:
Fire Bavasi
Job 2:
Trade Ichiro for two-three impact prospects at AA or AAA. While also moving Jones to CF
Job 3:
Bench Vidro, put Ibanez at the DH spot and call up Balentien
Job 4:
Send down Morrow, let him and Aumonte develop to be 2-3 pitchers behind Felix and let us have one of the best possible rotations in two years.
Job 5:
DFA Weaver and call up Fierebrand
This would vastly improve our rotation and defense (Fierbrand>Weaver; Balentien>Ibanez, Jones=
Fire Bavasi
Trade Ichiro for two-three impact prospects at AA or AAA. While also moving Jones to CF
The secret plan to rebuild the Mariners, according to the new GM for the Mariners, Mr. Underpants Gnome:
1. Trade Ichiro for underpants
2. …
3. Profit! World Series!
Useful comparison:
Count how many times Ichiro reached base.
Count how many times Ichiro scored.
Job 4:
Send down Morrow, let him and Aumonte develop to be 2-3 pitchers behind Felix and let us have one of the best possible rotations in two years.
Oh man, that’s too funny.
No offense to Morrow or Aumont, but to just expect them (and Felix) to become a 1-2-3 punch is wishful thinking. It just reminds me of all the Nageotte/Blackley/Anderson talk a few years ago. Nice how that turned out.
Not to mention Aumont is more than two years away from the majors. Morrow may well be also, as a starter. In fact, if Dave’s fears prove correct, he may never be a starter.
I put the odds of King Felix and Prince Philippe ever being in the same rotation at well under 50%. Add Morrow to the bet and I’d make it 20%.
I think Gil Meche might have been in that dream rotation with Nageotte, Blackley and Anderson at one point.
#11, I think just about everything you said is right on, but I think #12’s plan is a little more realistic.
Look, I love Ichiro… he’s a great player and a great addition to the team. He carries our team and we would be nowhere offensively without him. His defense and OBP ability are amazing. That said, just reading some of his comments, he seems really perturbed with the way the team is going (I would be too if I were him). If we can sign him to an extension before the July 31st deadline, than keep him, for sure. Move Jones to LF and have a great defensive OF. If we can’t however, we need to get something for him rather than let him walk in FA. If we can get him to stay by throwing money at him, than do it, but if he truly only cares about winning, we need to cut bait and get as much as we can for him now, otherwise we get nothing. Boston and New York both need a CF, both have young talent in the minors, and I feel like if we can get some solid young talent, it’s better than letting him walk. My plan I wrote in 11 is really just on the idea that it seems that Ichiro is gone already. I mean unless the team suddenly makes the playoffs, but who honestly thinks we can do that? This team is built to fail and until Bavasi is gone I won’t feel safe about where we are as an organization.
If we can’t however, we need to get something for him rather than let him walk in FA.
But if he walks in FA, we do get something for him — the signing team’s first-round pick (assuming it’s a top-15 finisher in 2007) and a sandwich pick (equivalent to an early 2nd round choice). That’s just as valuable as whatever shiny trinkets the Red Sox or Dodgers offer the M’s.
Boston and New York both need a CF
No, they don’t. If they trade for Ichiro they’ll try to send back Crisp, but otherwise they won’t deal Coco — he’s been fine out there. And the Yankees have a lot of money sunk in Johnny Damon.
Also? The “enter” key is your friend.
If we can get him to stay by throwing money at him, than do it, but if he truly only cares about winning, we need to cut bait and get as much as we can for him now, otherwise we get nothing.
No, you get the draft picks a Type A Free Agent gets you, plus the value of Ichiro’s $11 million salary available to sign other players.
Note that your trade is based around “getting solid young talent”. Let’s examine this premise. The last time a quality CF got traded to a contender was… Carlos Beltran. The Royals got Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood out of the deal (as a 3-way with Oakland).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/teahema01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/buckjo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/woodmi01.shtml
The Royals have gotten value out of the deal, as Buck’s apparently taken a step forward this year, but there’s no way you can say they’ve gotten EQUAL value to what Beltran’s done since the trade:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beltrca01.shtml
and the other thing is KC still is a pretty miserable team. Simply put, you don’t build great organizations out of trading great players. The Mariners survived dumping RJ, Griffey and A-Rod by pulling in free agents and Japanese League imports, but this is fairly rare in history… and it set the team up for problems with an old lineup a few years down the road, as we’ve seen.
There’s also the problem that trading Ichiro leaves the team with nobody who qualifies as a high-OBP player (Jones isn’t going to be one). The next highest OBP behind Ichiro is Vidro at .348. So… now who bats leadoff in 2007? Which FA looks like a good bet to replace Ichiro?
“The Mariners survived dumping RJ, Griffey and A-Rod by pulling in free agents and Japanese League imports”
Well, the Mariners got Guillen, Freddy, and John Halama for RJ, and they got Cameron for Griffey. Freddy and Cameron were big keys to 2001. There are examples of intelligent trades out there. The question is can our GM pull it off?
Freddy and Cameron were big keys to 2001
So were Ichiro, Kaz, Olerud, Boone, Sele, McLemore, Javier.
Also please note that the year after we traded RJ, even with Freddy having a solid rookie season and Halama chipping in his best year, we were 79-83, and Cameron for Griffey was a deal where the Reds got him on a longterm deal, as opposed to a 3 month rental.
Why shouldn’t our GM try pulling off SIGNING Ichiro, instead of trying to cash in a Hall of Famer for what could be pennies on the the dollar? It’s not like the franchise is awash in high-OBP players at critical defensive positions. Yes, Jones is a good player. He’s also a .330 OBP guy, and installing him in CF means this team’s going to have a hard time scoring runs without doing a lot of roster shakeup to find a high-OBP player. We HAVE one of the better ones in Ichiro- why give that up?