So, What Did I Miss?
I take a road trip to Atlanta for a couple of days, take in a Braves-Tigers game, and get reminded in person that Carlos Guillen and Rafael Soriano are both still awesome, and I apparently missed quite a bit in Mariner-land.
1. The Richie Sexson Annual Second Half Tear looks to be just about underway. .300/.364/.900 in his last 7 games, including 4 home runs. This is why the team didn’t bench him. He’s a ridiculously streaky hitter, but when he’s running hot, he’s the most effective power hitter the offense has, and they can’t win without him driving the ball.
2. After the Friday night debacle, Hargrove responded with more line-up changes. Last time he shook things up, he did well, moving Lopez to #2 and dropping Vidro to #8. This time? Not so much. Vidro brings his pathetic little .721 OPS back to the #3 hole. Becuase clearly, this team needs more Turbo.
3. Hargrove may be noticing that Guillen is having problems with RHPs, however, as he got Broussard into the line-up on Sunday in RF. Apparently, Guillen and Ibanez are both too hurt to play. Hello Adam Jones! No? Arghh. I don’t love Broussard in the outfield, but RF at Safeco is the easiest spot to play, and Guillen doesn’t have much range with his bad ankles either, so the offensive upgrade against right-handers is probably worth the experiment. He really needs to be in the line-up more often, as the team just can’t afford to keep a .295/.349/.487 left-handed hitter against RHPs on the bench.
4. Also, from the box score, it looks like Hargrove made two terrific moves yesterday – the suicide squeeze is my favorite play in baseball, and should be used far more often than it is. Kudos to Grover for calling it in the perfect scenario, with Betancourt on 3rd and Bloomquist at the plate in a tie game. Also, for handing the ball to J.J. Putz to get the final out in the 8th inning. Sherrill’s good enough to get tough righties out, but since he’s set on playing the L/R matchup game with his bullpen, going to Putz instead of Morrow could have been a game-saving decision.
5. And, finally, the big one – Ken Griffey Jr gave an interview on Fox Sports Northwest where he said he wants to retire as a Mariner, and that Seattle will always be home. You have no idea how happy I am that I wasn’t around the blog for this, because I’d have been pounding my head against a wall trying to keep the trade-creating-posters at bay.
So, what does his statement mean? Well, obviously, he had a good time in his return to Safeco, and the numerous standing ovations meant a lot to him. There’s no doubt he’s going into the hall of fame as a Mariner, and the idea of playing his last game with the team that he broke into the majors with holds significant appeal to both him and a large portion of the fan base. And we know that the M’s organization absolutely loves stuff like this, so the executives will push hard for a Griffey return when it becomes possible.
But as far as making a move right now? Let’s look at this from a realistic perspective. The M’s currently have a better player than Ken Griffey Jr biding his time in Tacoma waiting for a spot in the line-up to open up. They have a quality left-handed hitter sitting on the bench, unable to get as much playing time as he deserves. And they have another outfielder in Tacoma who continues to take a significant step forward in development and, because he’s out of options, he has to be on the team next year or be in another organization.
We already can’t find room for Ben Broussard and Adam Jones right now (again, this is why the Vidro trade was so ridiculously awful), and next year, you have to add Wladmir Balentien to the mix. Between the three outfield spots and designated hitter, you’ve got four line-up spots for Ichiro, Ibanez, Guillen, Vidro, Broussard, and Jones. Toss Balentien into that mix next year, likely replacing Guillen, and you’ve still got six guys for four spots. And that’s not including Jeff Clement, who is making a huge push to make sure he’s not forgotten about as a source of LH power.
Yes, Junior is better than Broussard and Vidro. And he’s a better fit for this team than Guillen, as the team needs a LH bat in the line-up more than a right-handed bat. But the marginal improvement of trading for Griffey isn’t as large as you’d think, looking at his numbers. He’d be another guy blocking Adam Jones, who really needs to be in the Mariners line-up right now, and would make a larger difference in improving the team than Junior would. He’d be another guy blocking Wladimir Balentien next year, giving the organization yet another high salaried player at a position where they had a low salaried option, taking more money away from the budget and preventing the club from improving at other positions.
For the huge portion of the fanbase that loves Griffey, I hope he does retire a Mariner. It just makes more sense for that to happen in 2009 and not 2007.
I agree. I see Junior as a piece to the puzzle in perhaps a run in two to three years, not now. He obviously will still be able to hit until he decides to call it a career, so why not develop the young players and try a trade for pitching this year. it would be nice to see him playing for a playoff contender. a deal for him in the next 18 months doesn’t solve their biggest weakness: starting pitching. it’s better to concentrate on that and try to build up the young nucleus for a run in the next couple years.
I loved watching Griffey play for the M’s and love the idea of him retiring playing on our team. BUT (and I can’t type that BIG enough to emphasize my feelings) you’re absolutely right. Unless the M’s can get the Reds to take Vidro and Broussard in that deal, I can’t see where it would make this team better and that is what is most important to me!
As for Sexson, I’m still not convinced the guy will get on a roll the second half. I just don’t understand how someone can ABSOLUTELY and COMPLETELY SUCK for 3 months of the season and then inexplicably turn it around for the second half of the season. He should never get an offseason to rest…just keep playing 12 months of the year!
Is the club actively shopping Guillen yet? I’d think they would be and was wondering if him not playing over the weekend had anything to do with it.
Great post as usual, couldn’t agree more. I went to the game yesterday and had a BLAST! I came out of my seat screaming suicide! suicide! (the folks around me thought I had lost it) when I saw Yuni break for home… With regards to Junior, do you know when his current deal runs out?
Agree with every word.
Griffey coming back as a DH makes a ton of sense, but would he accept that?
He’s due $12.5 million next year, then the Reds have a team option for $16.5 million in 2009 with a $4 million buyout.
Counting the rest of this year, he’s due $22.5 million through 2008 or $35 million through 2009. Even if you love Junior, it’s superstar money for a guy who isn’t a superstar anymore.
For the huge portion of the fanbase that loves Griffey, I hope he does retire a Mariner. It just makes more sense for that to happen in 2009 and not 2007.
My sources tell me that this is basically Griffey’s plan too. He’d like to play two or three more years in the field, maybe moving to LF or 1B, then come back to Seattle to DH for his final season.
I cringe every time I read or hear “bring back Griffey” talk, mainly because contracts and defense matter and both of his are horrible at this point. But if we’re talking about signing Griffey as a free agent and he’s acquiesced to being a DH*, I think it’s a great plan in 2010, even if he’s slightly overpaid based on his offense. By that time, we should have a lineup spot and budget for him.
* I had to laugh when Ichiro said he’d move back to RF to let Griffey play CF. Quite respectful but also very clueless.
Dave,
What were your thoughts on Andrew Miller last night?
And just for your info, Joe Morgan says Miller will struggle in his first few major league starts becuase he has to get used to the baseball that is used in the major leagues. Its hand stiched.
Ha, i just wanted to be the one sucker that hopes for Griffey out of pure old fashion selfishness; sure, there are 900 quality reasons against having him on the roster, but there is one overwhelming excitment that I felt when I went to watch the Mariners on Saturday – and it wasn’t Kyle Lohse or Jose Vidro.
Baseball fandom is a lot about stats, history and sentimentality. Seeing my childhood hero and remembering opening that pack of Upper Deck cards in 1989 and getting that Griffey card that my older brother didn’t have- that just makes me happy. When I was 9, and living in Kelso, it wasn’t Cotto or Presley, or a score of others that I can now appreciate and remember fondly while musing over old stat sheets.
I have to be honest. I watched for Ken Griffey, Jr., like everyone who was my age at that time.
Dave,
What were your thoughts on Andrew Miller last night?
I went to Saturday’s game, actually. Verlander looked awesome, obviously.
Do you really believe that Adam Jones is better than Griffey right now? Maybe defensively and health-wise, but Junior is sporting a .964 OPS…were you exaggerating or do you think Adam Jones is that good? I don’t doubt that he will be that good, but is he that good right now?
I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Joe Morgan didn’t know who Andrew Miller was before last night.
Moreover, Joe Morgan probably couldn’t name half of the teams in the A.L.
Also, is it possible that Griffey was thinking of one of those sign a one day contract type things in order to retire a member of the organization like you see in the NFL..?
Maybe before. Not now.
What if we got rid of Ibanez, Vidro, and Guillen and replaced them with Jr, Jones, and Broussard? I realize that would leave the bench thin, but perhaps in deals we could pick up a bench player. I know we need pitching, but perhaps the best way to improve the team now is improving its strength, hitting.
Turbo’s, Guillen’s, and Ibanez’s respective OPS+’s are 97, 99, and 108. Whereas Broussard’s and the Kid’s OPS+’s are 117 and 145. You all know about Jones.
I think these moves offer significant upgrades to the starting lineup, and by moving Vidro you free up some salary to be spent on Grif. If improving pitching is to expensive, improve hitting.
Oh, yes…as people have been pointing out…getting Jr. here NOW is making some people go blind…
Um, how?
Be realistic.
it’s all about vidro…if we didn’t have him, we could move ibanez or guillen to the DH, bring up jones, etc…with that piece of crap starting, getting griffey, or bringing up wlad or jones probably won’t happen…
Don’t assume the FO wants him back. He wasn’t always the easiest guy to manage
Wouldn’t a straight Guillen for Griffey deal make a certain amount of sense for both teams? The Reds could dump some salary they probably don’t want tying them down and the M’s get the left handed bat they so desperately need in the middle of the order. Jones could still come up to play left with Ibanez moving to DH. And Ichiro might be slightly more likely to re-sign if he’s got Junior flanking him in right. Thoughts Dave?
#17. Guillen to Our Natural Rivals. Ibanez in the Griff trade. Idk how to move Vidro, but if we were willing to give up Snelling and Fruto, Im sure someone else is willing to give up a bag of balls.
Do you really believe that Adam Jones is better than Griffey right now? …Junior is sporting a .964 OPS…do you think Adam Jones is that good? Is it possible that Griffey was thinking of one of those sign a one day contract type things
I’ll let Dave answer on Jones, but I don’t think Griffey is THAT good and I’d bet Dave concurs.
Griffey is hitting at his 90% PECOTA projection. At age 37, he’s having his best year since 2000 and is actually above his career averages so far this season (no one does that except Barry Bonds). I think 260/360/510 is more likely his true level of play at that’s with half his games in Cincinnati’s hitters’ paradise. (Junior has an 823 OPS on the road this year, small sample size caveats apply.) Add in the fact that he’s a below average fielder and you have close to a league average RF.
The one-day thing isn’t done in baseball nearly as often as in the NFL. Jeff Nelson is the only player I can recall doing this. I believe Griffey actually wants to play a season here.
if you watched the whole interview, even griffey mentioned that seattle would have to want him back, so really, it’s probably just something to talk about when he is a free agent…it’s probably not going to happen anytime soon…if at all…
After a weekend away from my computer, I was happy to read in the previous threads that Dave is a Brian Turang fan. I played with him at Loyola Marymount University and can say without hesitation that he is a great guy.
Not sure what happened to him after he finished baseball, and while he didn’t set the league on fire, I enjoyed watching him play in Seattle. I’m glad others did too.
I like the idea of 2009 also. I’ve been reading here about how he hosed over the team when he left, and I would like to respectfully disagree.
Although he could have given the GM (Gillick?) a bigger list of teams to trade to (although I think he did try to be coy until he thought he wasn’t being taken seriously), he helped by being honest about his intentions and by leaving.
According to my terrible memory, he could have signed for significantly more. Imagine if he had signed with the Ms for $10 Million/yr. Over the last 7 years with the Reds, he has averaged less than 100 games/year. Over the last 6 years, closer to 90. What is the value when we consider 5/8ths of a player?
I am curious about value over replacement player. However, from the fan point of view, I bet that if he had stayed, we would be begging for him to go.
This leaves out the psychological effects. He didn’t choose where he got drafted. He chose to leave. Had he stayed and made whiny comments because he really didn’t want to be here, how would that have affected the Ms and their fans? If he comes back in ‘09 because he wants to, much better story.
Jones is better than Griffey RIGHT NOW? Talk about an overstatement. Who’s to say Griffey and Jones can’t play in the OF together? My ‘08 OF: Jones-Ichiro-Griffey (for whom Balentien is traded). Guillen isn’t worth keeping, and Ibanez can be moved to DH or DF’A, or Vidro can be traded for trash, or whatever.
From ESPN.com:
“If Griffey can maintain this level of stability and stay injury-free, will the Reds be tempted to trade him? At age 37, it’s unlikely that Griffey’s trade value will go much higher than it stands right now as he appears totally locked in at the plate, even as the team continues to struggle around him.”
Dave,
So the Griffey thing doesn’t happen this year – I can’t fathom it would. But let me run this scenario by you, does the gaping publicity hit of having Ichiro leave us (assuming he does) at the end of this season get softened somewhat by having Griffey return next year? Jones in center, Griffey/Ibanez doing the LF/DH thing, Guillen/Broussard in RF. We are arguably less crowded with an Ichiro-less outfield next year.
I don’t know if bringing Griffey – now 37 years old – back makes any sense (I can think of better ways to spend the money), but you can see how an organization that loves to create artificial opportunities for nostalgia to gloss over what’s actually going on on the field might do if Ichiro tells us to take our offer and shove it. They essentially buy another half-year of excitement with average Joe fan without having to do all that much in the way of improving the team.
The Griffey thing…It just makes sense. Griffey is one of the real stars that everyone who’s been here has fond memories of, whether they’re more partial to others, or those memories have been tainted by the departure. My understanding is that Griffey could be had for very little, in comparison to the B.O. Draw (so expect every effort)
If you see Griffey as a DH here, the question really is, do you expect better numbers from him than Ibanez(who we’d rather see DHing than Vidro). I’d be looking for trade Partners who’d Take Guillen, Vidro or Ibanez for Pitching, even Bullpen arms(Why not Broussard? Why trade Broussard? He fits fine on the bench, though he should see more playing time/AB’s). One thing the Reds would want is a ML Ready Reliever, so If you’ve already gotten an extra part or 2…Can the team get a decent starter for Guillen, Vidro or Ibanez(with MiL Fodder thrown in?) If you look at the OF/DH situation (4 spots as mentioned earlier) that you want to have 1-2 come from the minors next year and you don’t even know if you’ll have Ichiro…(however one of Ichiro’s Desires has been to play the field beside Griffey, so Griffey now could help keep Ichiro) Let’s assume the team went after Griffey and traded Ibanez and Guillen for Pitching/younguns or as part of Griffey trade (assuming the worst, that Vidro is untradable)…This leaves you with an Ichiro Griffey Jones OF though still stuck with Vidro at DH (for one year).
What I’d like to see is Griffey return the favor by demanding a trade from Cincy to Seattle, using his 10-5 rights to veto a trade to any other team. But then after what the Reds got for Austin Kearns last year, I don’t think the M’s would need the leverage…One proviso…After Bavasi’s Fired!!!
There’s no way I’m going to be able to address every question brought up in this thread, so, I’ll do it shotgun style.
1. Yes, Jones is better than Griffey right now. Junior’s having a great year, but you can’t just transport his numbers from Cincinatti to Seattle. His OPS is 200 points higher in the bandbox that Cincy calls home than it is on the road, and that’s against inferior National League pitching. He’s also a constant injury concern, and he’s not a good defensive player. The difference between Jones in health and defense far outweighs any differences you might think there are offensively.
2. The M’s aren’t going to trade Ibanez, and there’s not a team in baseball that wants Jose Vidro.
3. Guillen has very little trade value, and none to a non-contending team like the Reds.
I know a lot of you really want it to make sense, but it just doesn’t.
well, as on Friday Griffey pointed out that he doesn’t expect to DH for another chunk of years (“you go to right field for three years, and then left field for three years and then first base for two more and then you DH …”)
weirdly, it apparently was guillen’s elbow and/or upper arm that kept him out on Sunday
i agree dave…trading for him isn’t the answer…if he wants to DH at the end of his current contract, then that’s fine…but we need jones and wlad up…and if we are trying to make a trade, we need to get buerle from the chi-sox…
I’d love to know how much Griffey memorabilia was sold in the Team Store this year, compared to the other years. Especially the spike this past weekend. If that (and what it would do to team attendance) doesn’t convince team officials to bring him back sooner than later, I don’t know what will.
Thiel, in his usual awesomeness:
That said, I’m with Dave. Emotions aside and what it would do for attendance (not only that, but I imagine Ichiro would have a hard time leaving with the thought of playing alongside Griffey an option), it just doesn’t make sense until Griffey’s current contract is up in 2 years. I’m just hoping he can remain healthy until then.
I wonder if he for some reason does get to us before his current deal runs out, if he’ll still allow the Mariners to do what he’s allowing the Reds to do. (60% of his salary is deferred – through 2025 apparently.)
#33: I echoed that sentiment. Judging by the attendence this weekend, Griffey’s salary shouldn’t be a concern, because he will pay for himself. Imagine if he could attract 5000 additional fans a game by coming back, that will more than pay for his own salary, + maybe Ichiro’s upcoming salary too. So from that perspective, it maybe prudent to get Griffey back now than in 2010. The question is what do we have to give up to get him back. Vidro / Guillen aren’t someone Cincy would be interested in. We don’t have the pitching to trade for him, unless they want a Butler/Wlad/Clement package. That’s an awefully expensive price to pay. It’s probably not very practical at this point to trade for Griffey.
Contract restructurings have to be approved by the players union (essentially), and they won’t allow a player to defer money without getting a significant enhancement elsewhere – in other words, a contract extension, most likely. The union has explicitly told members that they aren’t allowed to devalue their own contracts by taking a paycut or by conceding parts of their salary without getting compensated for it.
This is part of why players get paid off for waiving their no-trade clauses, even if they want to get traded.
I’m absolutely terrified of an Adam Jones for Griffey deal — it’s just the kind of ridiculous move Bavasi would make, and blessed by the ownership for the PR value!
Judging by the attendence this weekend, Griffey’s salary shouldn’t be a concern, because he will pay for himself. Imagine if he could attract 5000 additional fans a game by coming back, that will more than pay for his own salary, + maybe Ichiro’s upcoming salary too.
No player in baseball can draw 5,000 fans a game by himself. Attendance was so high this weeekend because it was a unique opportunity, the only chance people had to see Junior play. If he was here for the entire season, you wouldn’t see anything like the attendance spike.
There have been numerous studies done on a players ability to draw fans, and in almost every case, the impact is very minimal.
Do you really believe that Adam Jones is better than Griffey right now? Maybe defensively and health-wise, but Junior is sporting a .964 OPS…were you exaggerating or do you think Adam Jones is that good? I don’t doubt that he will be that good, but is he that good right now?
Dave addressed the statistical argument, but that’s not even the entirety of the equation. We can rosterbate over stats all we like, but the team operates in the real world of budgets and return on investment (well, as real as fairytale sports financials ever gets). And while Griffey would undoubtably bring in lots of fans (at least for the first few games — but how quickly does a special event turn into the same old grind?) and sell a lot of jerseys and other junk, he’s way, way more expensive than Jones. At the league minimum Jones will get less than a million through ‘09 if he was brought up now; Griffey would get more than 30 times that. Is he 30 times better? Will he really bring in $30 million in added revenue? And then there’s opportunity cost: what other talent could the M’s get with that kind of money (talent like, oh I don’t know, starting pitchers?)
I agree, it may make sense in ‘09 or thereabouts to talk about Griffey moving on to DH and when he does he obviously has to go to the AL and the obvious destination is Seattle. He could be another Edgar. But with his injury history and contract it’s insane to talk about bringing him in now to play the outfield this year or next. I wouldn’t mind Griffey as the M’s DH in 09; but I would be very unhappy to see him on the M’s DL for most of ‘08.
Let’s look at it this way: it’s fairly likely that Griffey/Ichiro is an either/or solution, because it’s unlikely the team is going to pay north of 15 million for TWO roster spots (not counting Sexson, Beltre and other Bavasi-inspired bloated contracts). So, is the team better with a 38 year old LH quasi-DH/corner OF who is probably good for 130-140 games at most. with at best a somewhat better bat, or a 34 year old CF who is consistently healthy, better defensively and on the basepaths, but a mild downgrade offensively?
It’s not much of a contest for me: I want the younger, better all-around player. If you could pick Griffey up on a 8-10 million dollar per year contract for a year or two, and the roster wasn’t cluttered with the likes of Vidro and Sexson… sure, NOW this makes some sense. That probably doesn’t happen until 2009, though.
Hometown discount in 2009… yes please. DHing only, of course.
In the end, the FO traded for Vidro, and Vidro is the reason that they can’t get Griffey. Without Vidro, they’d probably be platooning at DH, running out Broussard/Snelling/Guillen with Sexson and Ibanez and maybe Adam Jones mixed in. They would also have back all the money heading Vidro’s way.
Without Vidro, trading Griffey for Adam Jones and Ryan Feierabend would be, in neocon terms, a “slam dunk.”
For all the lead weight he’s putting on the offense, the albatross that is Vidro is also preventing a stupid trade from happening.
As much as bringing Adam Jones up now would make sense, especially if Ibanez and/or Guillen are out for a bit, Adam’s injured, too. He ran into a wall a couple days ago, and is out of the lineup. Looks like lots of Willie and Jason in the corners for a few days.
Speaking of injuries – if you really want Griffey back, have a look at the A’s for a minute. They brought in an aging Mikey P as their DH, and he’s been hurt half the year. That’s the risk you take with aging players. For $12M, count me out.
The only way the M’s move Vidro is if they take back an equally bad contract in return. That doesn’t help this team.
Hey Dave, what’s wrong with Carlos Triunfel? It looks like he hasn’t played for a few weeks.
I had to laugh when Ichiro said he’d move back to RF to let Griffey play CF. Quite respectful
but also very clueless.What makes you think Ichiro didn’t know exactly what he was saying? It costs him nothing to say that, it shows respect, and he knows it isn’t going to happen. He really has nothing to offer the media frenzy around Griffey, but he can make that one small statement in full, clueful knowledge that it will be well-taken by the media, complimentary to Griffey, and make him look like a good, selfless guy and team player. Too many clueless people knock him for not “showing leadership” according to their own narrow definition; well, in his understated way he just did.
I hope to god we won’t have a use for a 39-40 year old Griffey at Safeco. If we do, we’re in trouble.
.823 road OPS in the NL in 2007.
Come 2009 how good is that going to look if Griffey does come back to finish his career with a few seasons as the Mariners’ DH?
Could he be another expensive boat anchor like Vidro?
Hey Dave, what’s wrong with Carlos Triunfel? It looks like he hasn’t played for a few weeks.
He broke his thumb.
No player in baseball can draw 5,000 fans a game by himself. Attendance was so high this weeekend because it was a unique opportunity, the only chance people had to see Junior play. If he was here for the entire season, you wouldn’t see anything like the attendance spike.
And having been there for one of those games vs. the other half a dozen I’ve been to this year, that was in no way a normal crowd. Bad drivers. People acting lost and jamming up the concourses. Cheering at weird times. Frat boy level alcohol consumption.
That crowd was there to see Griffey and relive the Kingdome days. I’d bet that many had never set foot in Safeco, and others who had probably hadn’t in 5-6 years.
And it was one-time-only. Most of the crowd won’t darken the front gate again this year. And if they did bring Junior back, the novelty would wear off by the second game, and right back to 17,000 for a weeknight Pirates game.
Oh, and Ichiro managed to improve his already excellent June, and is now hitting .429/.480/.527 for the month.
You have no idea how happy I am that I wasn’t around the blog for this, because I’d have been pounding my head against a wall trying to keep the trade-creating-posters at bay.
Dave, you should have a look at the game threads: there’s surprisingly little of that (at least during the game, I didn’t go back and look after the games were over and it looks like the Sunday thread picked up a lot more comments over night).
by moving Vidro you free up some salary to be spent on Grif
I think we’re spending quite enough money on Grit already.
Ohhhh, Grif not Grit. OK, I get it.
And why I say Griffey is probably better offensively:
2005, road OPS: .902
2006, road OPS: .856
2007, road OPS: .897
Unless you just knock off a huge chunk for NL->AL translation (and recall, Griffey’s a lefty, so like Raul and Ichiro, he’s likely to do OK in Safeco, so discounting for home park probably isn’t needed), he’s a better offensive player. It’s not as much as you think when you adjust for “corner OF” to “center fielder”, but it’s there. (If you add in defense, I don’t think it’s very close- Ichiro’s the better player.)
I’m not really sold that the NL’s pitching is THAT inferior that we need to knock off or add numbers moving from league to league. Carlos Beltran isn’t an all-universe player going from the AL to the NL; he’s basically the same player. Same with Vlad going the other way. There’s Carlos Delgado as well.
Which underlines that it’s very debatable as to whether Ichiro even represents a “a mild downgrade offensively” compared to Griffey.
Without Vidro, trading Griffey for Adam Jones and Ryan Feierabend would be, in neocon terms, a “slam dunk.â€
And might turn out as well. I don’t know that I make that trade. Feierabend is expendable; but while Jones is nothing close to a young Griffey he is, in fact young. And cheap. And mostly undamaged. So while Seattle gets more talent than it gives in that trade, it takes on way, way more cost and risk. Depending on what happens with Jr’s health, that “slam dunk” could become another expensive quagmire.
by moving Vidro you free up some salary to be spent on Grif
Nobody wants Vidro. Vidro is overpaid crap and everyone knows it.
I’m not really sold that the NL’s pitching is THAT inferior that we need to knock off or add numbers moving from league to league. Carlos Beltran isn’t an all-universe player going from the AL to the NL; he’s basically the same player. Same with Vlad going the other way. There’s Carlos Delgado as well.
The gap does seem to be shrinking. Going into Friday the AL and NL had won the same number of games in interleague (don’t know how the weekend affected that, tho.)
Maybe it’s time we just did away with the leagues altogether. They’re just shell organizations now anyway.
What are the chances of an ‘08 outfield of Jones, Balentine, and Ichiro?
58 – 0%. At least not on opening day.
Depending on what happens with Jr’s health, that “slam dunk†could become another expensive quagmire.
True, but at least on Opening Day 2009 there’s the potential that Griffey would be out of Seattle, whereas it’s pretty well guaranteed we’ll still be in that other quagmire that day.
And might turn out as well. I don’t know that I make that trade. Feierabend is expendable; but while Jones is nothing close to a young Griffey he is, in fact young.
Well, Jones is fairly close to a young Eric Davis, or a ++ version of Mike Cameron. That’s an awfully good player… especially when he’s under organizational control up through age 28.
Yes, those slam dunks haven’t always proven to be so wise in retrospect.
Griffey really wants back? Color me not convinced.
Wasn’t it just a few days before the series that he was saying that he -hadn’t thought- of coming back, hadn’t visited or anything? I mean, his reception in Seattle may have changed things, but as they say “easy come, easy go”.
Yeah, it’s quite possible he was overcome by the emotion of the weekend. When he gets back to Cincy and talks to his agent and his wife and kids and has a few days to think about it, he might be of a different mind.
Going home again always sounds tempting, but cooler heads know it rarely works out as well as the fantasy.
Out on the road today I saw a Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac
A little voice inside my head said, “Don’t look back. You can never look back.”
I love the way people get so emotional about Griffey that logic and reason go out the window.
Imagine if he could attract 5000 additional fans a game by coming back, that will more than pay for his own salary, + maybe Ichiro’s upcoming salary too.
A few people said something like this. Dave already refuted the 5000 number, but let’s pretend it’s right. Optimistically 5000 * 80 games = 400,000 more fans * $40/head = $16M. More realistically there’s only a bump in the 70 games Junior would play at $20/ticket (it’s the cheap seats that are being filled), which comes out to $7M which doesn’t come close to covering his salary much less help with Ichiro’s.
Not only wouldn’t there be a big bump long term but there wasn’t an actual big bump this year. The weekend June interleague series is always a big draw. Two year ago the M’s hosted the Mets and averaged 42K, last year it was the Giants and 43K, this year Griffey got it to 46K. That said, I’m sure they sold a lot more memorabilia this year than in years past.
Griffey would actually have more impact on the Mariners road attendance (especially if Ichiro were to leave) than their home attendance.
It must be noted that Adam Jones ran into the OF wall hard on Friday, has missed the last two Rainiers games and is day to day with ‘back soreness.’
Adam will be fine, but that may be why we didn’t see him given Guillen’s ailments. That or the team thinks Ibañez and Guillen will be fine in a couple days.
People in Cincinnati don’t come out to GABP to specifically see Jr play. At this point I have no idea why people would come out in Kansas City or Texas just because Jr was in town.
Going home again always sounds tempting, but cooler heads know it rarely works out as well as the fantasy.
Of course, he’s already had that once in going back to Cincy.
There was a lot in the Ohio media about how this wasn’t going to be pleasant, pointing to A-Rod’s experience. I think they were surprised that the reception was as warm as it was. And you got the sense from how his demeanor changed between the Friday press conference and the Sunday fluffy interview that he was starting to feel like he never should have left for Cincy. But I don’t think it was about “I want to play here again,” more “Damn, I really pissed on a great opportunity, didn’t I?”
I can see him coming back at the end of his career, 2009 or 2010, for one last hurrah. Not before then. And I don’t think he’d want to play more than a year here, either, not with his kids in Cincy/Orlando.
Griffey’s Salary is fairly illrelevent. The amount of revenue he will provide at the box office is extremely needed right now. He can make up half of his salary in ticket revenue and his performance will be well worth the rest. Anytime JR is back will be a boost to the performance, the revenue, and the enjoyment of watching the team.
No, he can’t.
Dave, thanks for the update-in-passing on Jeff Clement. Is he figuring int out at AAA, or just on a tear?
A mix of both. The return of his ability to drive the ball is a welcome sign, but just like Wlad’s April, it’s a combination of improvement and unsustainable luck.
We’ll talk about Clement in depth again when I update the Future Forty next week.
dave, you said before your trip that one of our minor leaguers might not play professional ball again…who was that and what happened?
Speaking of prospects and rosterbation, what of Jeremy Reed? Is he done as a Mariner?
And how many fans will turn out when Griffey’s sitting on the 60 Day DL? Really, the M’s would be better off using that $30 million to pay fans to attend, hoping to make it up in concession sales. And the result in the win-loss column wouldn’t be much different: the fans in the seats will have as much effect on the outcome of a game as Griffey on the bench with a bad hamstring.
And in another strike for more detailed statistical analysis, Jayson Start at ESPN says: “Win-loss records don’t tell the whole story”.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2910803
Ya think?!
How many people besides maybe John Kruk and Joe Morgan seriously believe that they do?
F-Rod. Your assertion about Griffey’s salary is dead wrong, but “illrelevent” is a great new word. We shall have to find a use for it.
dave, you said before your trip that one of our minor leaguers might not play professional ball again…who was that and what happened?
Michael Wilson, an outfielder who started the year in Double-A. He’s hanging out in Peoria right now, and actually made a couple of appearances for the AZL Mariners last week, but for all intents and purposes, his time as a prospect is over.
Speaking of prospects and rosterbation, what of Jeremy Reed? Is he done as a Mariner?
Yea, Reed’s future is with another organization. He’s looking at a career as a fourth outfielder who might get some everyday time with a non-contender on a low payroll (hello Marlins!). His lack of ability to develop any tangible power was a bigget stumbling block than expected.
I didn’t hear Grif say he wanted to play for the Mariners. I believe he was asked if he’d come back to seattle and he said that he would like to retire as a Mariner. Not the same as playing for the Mariners.
That being said, if Griffey came out and said he wants out of Cinci and will only consider playing for the Mariners and a couple of others teams, no matter how little sense it makes, for obvious reasons, the FO will look into it. But until that happens why even consider the possiblility.
Seems like the we’d have to dump Sexson and Guillen somehow to make room for Griffey…and unceremoniously remove Vidro from the roster as well. That’s a lot of work, but would leave the team with this possibility in the outfield for next year:
LF Jones, CF Ichiro, RF Griffey. Then Broussard at 1B and Ibanez at DH.
As far as I’m concerned, Balentein would be a piece of the deal to bring Griffey here.
I have to agree, Griffey doesn’t make a lot of sense this year, or next because of the dead weight that would be almost impossible to remove to wedge him in the lineup. Adding Jones, and Balantien is a much bigger priority at this point.
“illrelevent†is a great new word. We shall have to find a use for it.
Anybody who spends most of the season on the DL could be said to be illrelevent, I suppose.
Example:
To the 2007 Seattle Mariners, Arthur Rhodes was illrelevant.
I like it.
Dave can you explain the vesting option to bring Jose Vidro back to the M’s in 2009? What do the M’s have to cough up to get out of that?
Man, I’ve never seen a fall from hope as precipitous and quick as Michael Wilson’s. Dave, any idea or any word on what led to this?
I can’t begin to express how happy I am that my favorite AL team (Tigers) gave my least favorite NL team (Braves) such a whuppin’ this weekend. Andrew Miller’s got a superb fastball, but as he told Peter Gammons during the brief in-game interview he needs serious work on his off-speed stuff. Combine his live fastball with a wicked change and watch the opposing hitters flail away in misery. I can see Miller winning 18+ games 2-3 seasons from now. Verlander-Bonderman-Miller starting trio = 50+ wins.
As for Jr., I predict he’ll leave Cincy after 2008 and sign a one-year contract with the M’s for a pittance (say, $5 mil) and DH most of the time, playing RF on occasion.
86 – I’d say Rett Johnson’s fall was quicker and more precipitous.
Wilson was never a legit prospect.
Dave can you explain the vesting option to bring Jose Vidro back to the M’s in 2009? What do the M’s have to cough up to get out of that?
It’s based on playing time next year. We don’t know the specific standard, but the organization has commonly given out contracts that automatically vest the following season if the player reaches 450 plate appearances.
Basically, if the M’s don’t want Vidro back in ‘09 (and they really shouldn’t), they just need to make sure he plays less than 70% of the time next year. They could use him as the right-handed half of a platoon, which would limit him to a couple hundred trips to the plate, but to do so, they’d have to recognize that he’s not any good.
Man, I’ve never seen a fall from hope as precipitous and quick as Michael Wilson’s. Dave, any idea or any word on what led to this?
I’ve never been a big Wilson fan, so I guess I don’t see the same fall. He was always a questionable prospect with significant holes in his game.
Pokey Reese? Illrelevant!
#33
I know its been a while since your post, but I work at the Bellevue Team Store and heres what I can tell you.
Firstly, the only thing we can sell of Grif’s is memorabilia, MLB licensing rules prevent us from selling anything else, although we did get authorization to print player tees, which sold out rapidly. Also, those 1000 balls he signed for Children’s Hospital sold out as quickly as Ichiro runs the bases.
Secondly, we usually have a bat he signed, or a regular ball which costs more than just about any sane person is willing to spend.
Well, given 88 and 89, I’m now more surprised that people talked him up as much as they did. He never did seem like that much of a prospect to me either.
Among people with real insight when it comes to Mariners prospects, I’m not sure who hyped him up that much. He certainly never got much ink from the M’s themselves, BA, Churchill, Yencich, or myself.
I know Mariner Revolution did (hype Wilson), as well as hyping Bryan LaHair.
Wonder why it isn’t around any more?
Wilson, BTW, played in a game for West Tenn today going 1-4 with a HR, 3 RBI, and a K.
Re Griffey saying he might want to finish out his career in Seattle:
Griffey has always been the type who when 40,000 people cheer and 1 boos, he hears the boo. He heard no boos this weekend; he probably hears some in Cincinnatti. So, until the next time he changes his mind, he wants to go where the boos aren’t.
I always confused Michael Wilson with Mickey Lopez.
My thought has been That as long as Griffey does come out and say “trade me to Seattle” I don’t see the FO saying “No.” It seems almost inevitable to me that if he chooses to be a Mariner in 2007 (especially after the season) he probably will be. I was merely trying to decide what would make that move bearable and an improvement. Given Griffeys “albatross contract” I don’t see how it could be argued that he’s not worth it by the same people who argue we can’t get rid of Vidro. If we’re paying Griffeys contract, why can’t they pay Vidro’s?
Michael Wilson was the Canadian Minister of Finance throughout my childhood, so whenever anyone mentioned the prospect Michael Wilson I always pictured a bookish guy with salt & pepper hair and gold rimmed glasses.
Given Griffeys “albatross contract†I don’t see how it could be argued that he’s not worth it by the same people who argue we can’t get rid of Vidro. If we’re paying Griffeys contract, why can’t they pay Vidro’s?
Again: Ichiro is a free agent this offseason. Ichiro’s making 11 million this year, and is likely to get a significant raise if he’s brought back. While there could be some money freed up from guys like Guillen, Broussard, Reistma and Weaver not being brought back, it’s probably not enough for BOTH Ichiro AND Griffey, unless the team wants to boost payroll by a fair chunk… and signing those two guys does nothing for the craptastic starting staff, which desperately needs a talent injection (far more so than the offense).
In fact, the M’s do have reasonable options for making the offense and defense better (add Jones, give playing time to Broussard, bench Vidro and turn him into a Dave Hansen PH/occasional player) that don’t involve trading for Griffey…whereas they do NOT have reasonable options in-house for improving the pitching staff. So why is trading for a 38 year old DH what the M’s should be doing with their limited cash and minor league talent?
We don’t need Griffey this year. We need starting pitching.
As much as I’d LOVE to see Junior come back, the Reds will want kids in exchange for him. I am not willing to send anymore good young kids for a guy who will easily play his last year with us. We’ve given away a bit more than we should have for two subpar vets (Ramirez, Vidro) and while Griffey is still light years above the average player, he’s not worth a Feierabend, Clement or whatever the Reds will demand in return.
I agree that’s it’s not a locigal move to bring him in here at this point. I’m just saying that the M’s front office would pull the trigger on this which makes sense in a financial way in the moment. Not that thier deals haveto make sense in any way at all.
#96
Good point and true, although he was younger then. Thanks for reminding everyone here. Short memories.
BTW, chaulk up another winning run for my man Willie.
What is the rationale for keeping Vidro in the everyday lineup, let alone batting him third? I have to admit I thought Vidro would be much better than he’s been, but it seems the skillset that made him a productive player earlier in his career has diminished siginificantly.
The thought throughout the offseason is that Bavasi and Hargrove are in job-saving mode, is this is true, why keep Vidro in the lineup? Has Ibanez told people he doesn’t want to/won’t DH? That could be a scenario that is blocking the move of Jones to LF, Ibanez to DH, Vidro to PH duties.
The M’s as an organization, and Hargrove specifically, overrate batting average as an indicator of skill. Vidro’s hitting .292, so they think he’s doing just fine.
Vidro doesn’t strike out and his batting average remains above league average. Hargrove and the FO cannot grasp the notion that a .290 hitter who makes contact can still severely hurt the lineup if he fails to draw walks, steal bases, and/or hit for power. So despite his hollow BA, Vidro will remain as the everyday DH.
Dave beat me to it.
How’s Vidro doing on that Jim Rice DP meter?
not only that, but i don’t think that management will admit they were wrong about vidro…best case scenario is that he gets hurt, but that is unlikely and we really shouldn’t wish injury on anyone…
I’m just saying that the M’s front office would pull the trigger on this which makes sense in a financial way in the moment.
Why does this make sense in a financial way? Only if we traded Sexson for Griffey would we dump enough payroll for this to work. Otherwise next year we can’t afford Griffey and Ichiro.
What is the rationale for keeping Vidro in the everyday lineup, let alone batting him third?,
Hargrove is an idiot who loves a set lineup and think his Vidro’s .300 AVG makes him good and Bavasi (and/or those who recommended Vidro) is a poor evaluator of talent and trying to save face on a horrid trade. Not sure if that qualifies as rationale, but that’s basically the sad reason. If you trade for Vidro expecting 290/350/450 and he’s at 300/350/370, that isn’t (in the M’s eyes) reason to dump him.
I hate to think of John Mcgrath as the voice of reason, but hie is currently informing Ian Furness that a) Adam Jones is ready, b) he is cheaper & would in theory then give you money for pitching, c) the team is a marginal team at best and does Griffey put you over the top, and d) you can go to the bus station and find someone more productive than Vidro rather than spend the money on a DH
Maybe the M’s as an organization think highly of BA, but as they must know, the reason for offense is to score runs. As a player, you either need to score them or drive them in (few people can make a career of “moving people over”). Vidro doesn’t do either and they have to know this. And he doesn’t contribute defensively or run the bases well. I just don’t understand why they play him, especially when they have a viable option in AAA. Maybe they don’t value Jones MLB ability right now? Are there thoughts in the organization that Jones is a “year away”?
He’s getting remarkably little attention for being mediocre.
Previously crap Mariners (Cirillo, Aurelia, Spezio, Jurassic Carl, going all the way back to the mythical Mendoza) have had their mediocrity broadcast more widely.
114 – none of those guys hit .290.
And honestly, none of them were mediocre. They were all awful. Vidro’s numbers are bad, but not approaching the level of the players you listed.
This doesn’t mean I don’t think he sucks, or needs to be demoted. Just that it’s not as obvious as it was with the guys you’re comparing him to.
Hey – Vidro adds value by getting Ichiro to steal more!
Well, that’s the problem with this organization. It has to be blindingly obvious for them to make a move (and I’m not talking about Bavasi; I’m talking about folks other than him). Vidro really sucks, but it’s not patently obvious to a casual fan. (Hm. Guess I’m saying that this group of fools are no more observant than the casual fan…)
What is the rationale for keeping Vidro in the everyday lineup, let alone batting him third? I have to admit I thought Vidro would be much better than he’s been, but it seems the skillset that made him a productive player earlier in his career has diminished siginificantly.
All you have to do is look at this trend to see everything you need to know about Vidro. That would be fine for aging defensive specialist or slap hitting leadoff man, but for a guy whose entire job is to hit in the middle of the order, it’s rather pathetic. How Bavasi looked that that trendline and said “There’s our next Designated Hitter!” I’ll never know.
I hate to think of John Mcgrath as the voice of reason, but hie is currently informing Ian Furness that a) Adam Jones is ready, b) he is cheaper & would in theory then give you money for pitching, c) the team is a marginal team at best and does Griffey put you over the top, and d) you can go to the bus station and find someone more productive than Vidro rather than spend the money on a DH
I don’t know who either of those guys are, but I’m guessing they’re on talk radio. And that’s good, because it means the word is getting out beyond the USSM echo chamber. Though given how much talk radio likes to spread controversy just to keep their ratings going, this may be less the result of clear thinking than just the desire to be contrary.
@joser
I have no idea what ISO is, but it seems Vidro’s doing just as good as Ichiro is:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1101&position=OF&page=6&type=full
Joser,
John McGrath is a columnist for the Tacoma News Tribune, and he used to be a good journalist in the mid-90’s. Don’t know when, but apparently he’s gotten lazy and has written an annual column calling to trade Ichiro (lack of leadership) for the better part of the decade.
Isolated slugging. But Vidro’s not going to hitg 350-whatever or get on base more than 40 percent of the time.
I think Dave Cameron pointed out a while back that while Vidro is hitting for a much higher average than Everett last year, he doesn’t walk much, and he has a lot less power. Their OPS scores are pretty much a push.
He’s not Mendoza; he’s not a Spez-Aurel-irillo sized bust, but he’s about as bad as Crazy Carl.
I asked in the other topic, but it was right before this topic was made, so it never got answered.
I’m interested if anyone here knows if anything has changed with Yorman Bazardo since he was traded to the Tigers. He’s pitched quite well for Toledo and even got called up for a little while. Has any of his velocity returned, or has nothing changed from when he was dealt and he’s not still worth lamenting over?
Ichiro is not the DH. And I hear he has a glove.
Cgmonk – are you sure you’re reading that chart correctly? Ichiro pretty much hangs right around .100 year-in and year-out – which is fine given his job as a leadoff hitter and other plusses. Vidro used to have decent ISO, but the last several years it looks like a ski slope. The trend since 2004 is pretty bad. Thus far in 2007 it’s .070(!). If Vidro was a leadoff/.400 OBP guy with speed, then maybe. But as a middle-of-the-order hitter with a no speed…
I see the same thing.
Ichiro below major league average for isolated power (which means what we all know for the evidence of our own eyes: Ichiro hits a tonne of singles) but he’s consistent.
Vidro flirted with better than average power briefly, early this season, but is now well below Ichiro, right in line with Juan Pierre, and a bit ahead of Luis Castillo. And he’s our DH.