Game 74, Red Sox at Mariners
Hernandez vs Gabbard, 7:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day.
I’m going to be honest – this game scares me. Felix owned the Red Sox in his second start of the year, but his stuff hasn’t been the same since. His velocity is down, he’s not getting the same movement on his two-seam fastball or slider, and he hasn’t been able to keep his change-up consistently below the belt. Felix, with less than his best stuff, is most effective when the opposing hitters are willing to swing early in the count, chase pitches out of the zone, and generally focus on putting the ball in play.
That’s not the Red Sox. They have a line-up full of guys who will stare at strikes to get into deeper counts, lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone, and swing for the fences when they expect a fastball. If Felix doesn’t have better command than he usually does, he’s going to fall into a lot of three ball counts, which will let the Red Sox lefty hitters aim for the short porch in right field.
Jeff Weaver, for all the crap we’ve given him, put on a pitch selection clinic last night, throwing curveballs, change-ups, and sliders in almost any count, and mixing the off-speed pitches in with his fastball to keep the hitters off balance. We know from experience that Felix isn’t going to do that for the first 15-20 pitches, which will be overwhelmingly laden with fastballs. If he’s not peppering strikes in the first inning and getting easy groundball outs, it could get bad in a hurry.
As for the offense, Kason Gabbard isn’t anything special, but he’s another one of these guys with a below average fastball that gives the Mariners fits. He’s a lefty, and the M’s hit those better than most, but Hargrove continues to run out asinine line-ups, sticking Jose Vidro (.297/.329/.344 vs LHPs) in the 3-hole and Jose Guillen (.359/.438/.641 vs LHPs) in the 6-hole. For a guy who plays the L/R matchups by the book in making bullpen changes late in the game, Hargrove has no regard at all for platoon splits when setting a line-up, and his suboptimal positioning of the hitters costs the team runs. How hard is it to take the guy who destroys lefties and hit him higher in the order against southpaws, while taking the guy who leads the team in sac bunts and double plays out of the middle of the line-up? Even nine-year-olds with their Playstations have a better understanding of line-up construction than the Mariner manager.
But, I’m going to try not to think about Mike Hargrove, because after all, it’s Felix Day. Here’s to a happy one.
Comments
649 Responses to “Game 74, Red Sox at Mariners”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
And this will be the only time we see Ellison tonight.
Here is to hoping for many various hard breaking pitches this Felix Day. No Manny for Boston, that helps.
After banging my head on the desk for a few minutes, seeing Turbo in the 3 hole, and explaining the situation to my fiance… I’m about to do something strange… I may be a little light headed (solid oak desk) but check this out.
Her response “Well if you want to trade him, won’t putting him in a position to add to his numbers give him more percieved value?”
So tonight I’m rooting for Vidro to go deep (he’s got a bit more power batting righty) and soak up some RBI’s from the 3 hole. I’ll cringe when he goes up in a GIDP situation, but hell, maybe Hargrove is smarter than all of us…
*back to reality hating this lineup….
If the first 15 pitches are fastballs we are in for a long night, Felix a short one. You’re right Dave this is scary. I’m not so Happy going in to this Felix day.
Is Hernandez really in the habit of throwing all fastballs his first 15-20 pitches? Whose idea is that?
Well all is a bit of an exaggeration but most. Some kind of garbage about “establishing the fastball” is what Felix and the pitching coaches have bought in to.
Apparantly King Felix sees himself as a power pitcher, and thinks he has to establish the fastball early or die trying… anyone have the link to that article?
As a Johjima fan I’d like to think he’s out there begging him not to but I have a feeling Kenji is a good little foot soldier on this issue.
Google for Charting Felix, and you’ll find a bunch of the research I’ve done on Felix’s pitch selection. He throws about 80% fastballs in the first inning, then goes to 60% or so in innings 2-3, 50% in innings 4-5, and 40% in innings 6+.
Basically, he “establishes the fastball” and then goes to his breaking stuff later. It, uhh, doesn’t work very well:
Hitters vs Felix, 1st inning: .341/.386/.537
That’s odd. Establishing it why? How? The Red Sox have seen him. They know he has an excellent fastball. Do the coaches think they’ll be contemptuous of it or something unless he throws a bunch of them right off the bat?
There’s the don’t show all your pitches thing that organizations like the Dodgers used to preach but that’s pushing it if he actually throws only heat the first 15 or so pitches.
The Mariners, as an organization, are about 50 years behind the times. They’ll realize that estabilshing the fastball is stupid about the time that we all have flying cars.
His boy Elroy!
Daughter Judy!
Jane his wife!
Hey, grover, why don’t we mix the pitches a little more?
Back in mid-April who could have imagined that Weaver would hold the Red Sox in check, while the prospect of Big Fern (my nickname for Felix) facing the Sox would elicit pangs of panic – from M’s fans, not from the Sox hitters.
In any case, it should be interesting to see what Big Fern’s pitch selection is like tonight.
Did Weaver throw a bunch of fastballs in his first inning or two last night?
If so…maybe they learned its ok to throw off speed stuff early. I am sure we all highly doubt it though.
I don’t get the panic. Didn’t Hernandez shut out the Pirates last time? Are they like the canadian currency of MLB? Is that it?
No one’s panicking – we’re just saying this is a bad matchup for Felix, especially since he doesn’t know how to pitch.
Sorry, it comes off a little bit like expectation management. He pitched a one hitter against them last time. It’s the Sox who should be apprehensive.
15- Pretty close, the Pirates are a hacktastic bunch of hitters who don’t take pitches. Which is great for most pitchers and especially Felix. Ever since Felix came off the DL patient line-ups have had their way with him.
#15: The Pirates as a team hit .250, slug .376, and have 303 runs and 55 HRs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox hit .273, slug .437, and have 378 runs and 79 HRs.
I thought it was supposed to be Jon Lester tonight.
Feel free to read any of the tens of thousands of words we’ve written on this issue in the past two years, James. It’s not “expectation management”. I’ve put a ridiculous amount of work into breaking Felix down, and I’m just giving you factual information on something you don’t know much about.
Actually, Canadian currency is getting pretty close to par. But yeah, past performance against the Pirates is not indicative of future results.
Does anybody else use mlb.tv? And if so, are you having trouble connecting right now??
#20. The papers say that the Sox considered using Lester but he hasn’t really been any better than Gabbard or Hansack at triple A and they don’t want to bring him up for just a fill in start or two they want to bring him up when he’s really ready.
MLB.TV is golden for me right now.
anyone else having problems getting mlb.tv to load?
23
Thats obviously a yes for me
Since that 1 hitter he’s been injured and has slowly been working back to his old self. We’re just fortunate he didn’t have to face the Red Sox again a couple of weeks ago.
Fair enough Dave. But it’s also a fact that the Sox haven’t hit him at all in a couple starts against them.
OK, is VW going to use EVERY SONG on the new Wilco album in their ads?
Sox stacking lineup with LHB (Cora for Pedroia, Hinske for Manny).
There’s going to be a lot of hitting him tonight. Fastball city.
Dear lord Todd Jones sucks. Watch him end up with the M’s by the end of July.
#26 I am having issues getting MLB.tv to load. Not sure if it is good to know I am not alone.
Sorry…Cora for Lugo, I meant.
Pedroia standing next to Sexson is inherently funny.
fastball = line drive
I can’t get Gameday Audio to load either.
8 pitches, 8 fastballs – 2 singles and a walk. Gee, who could have seen this coming?
Good to see Felix has shaken any first inning blues he may have had…sigh
Um, it would behoove the Sox to score some runs here.
Just wanted to say behoove.
8 pitches, 8 fastballs – 2 singles and a walk. Gee, who could have seen this coming?
Obviously not the Mariners.
#39. LOL. Okay.
That one was 95, closest thing to an offspeed so far.
James…
If your Sawks don’t score more than one run here, they may as well surrender and get ready for tomorrow
OMFG CHANGEUP
This scouting report is not novel, the team has the same info we have. Why has management not forced him into mixing his pitches early?
He missed a breaking ball! Crazy!
I think it was Casey Stengel who said, “if you have a nasty 88-mph curve, throw the bastard!”
Felix needs to pitch low and into the strike zone.
Yeah I can’t get Gameday Audio either.
The Mariners are stupid. That’s why. Seriously.
Lets all look forward to the 3rd inning off for good Felix.
Wow, JD Drew does suck, if he didn’t get a hit or walk off of Felix.
JD Drew k’s on a CHANGE UP
Hmmm…
#45. Come on. None of that “Sawks” stuff. I speak with very little accent (I think) and so do most of the people I know around here. Besides, I think “Sahks” is closer to how some of the horrible accents around here say it.
Slider, slider, slider, change – strikeout. How novel.
*Phew*.
The infield saved your ass, Felix. You should buy them beers and a stripper.
Beltre not having a Gold Glove is a travesty.
Absolutely sweet play by our corners.
No way Boston should get no more after one in, sacks jammed and NO ONE out, lol
“Amazing play by Sexson.” Uh, yeah, Dave. Maybe an amazing play FOR Sexson.
Okay, is Felix out of Mandatory Fastball Territory yet?
Think Kenji went out there and said enough of this fastball crap, lets see your real pitches?
Oh god. I’m watching the orioles versus the mfy’s on MLB EI and Proctor just threw a wild pitch all the way to the backstop off Posada’s glove and the speediest guy on the Orioles, Patterson, didn’t even try to score the winning run on it. Ugh.
So, to review:
Felix throws nothing but fastballs to the first three batters and loads the bases without getting anyone out. Then, he starts going after hitters with breaking balls and mixing his pitches and he gets a strikeout and a double play to get out of a jam.
If the M’s can’t see the pattern that I’ve pointed out to them, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. I do this for free – this is their jobs. It’s ridiculous.
My roommate from boston is watching this game too and he just popped his head in my room and asked, and I quote, “why the hell doesn’t he mix his pitches more – his sh** is filthy?”
63
That was sooo weird. Totally wild ninth inning…that is still going on
My anxiety about this game is much diminished as Scott Proctor walks in the winning run for the Orioles.
Sigh.
Proctor walks in the winning run
Yankees lose!
Gabbard looked decent against the Braves. Hansack, the other possibility for tonight, got hit hard.
anyone else still having mlb.tv issues?
Indians just tied it up against the A’s also…
Vidro, Vidro, he’s our man!
If he can’t strike out, no one can!
Ichie K’s, Lopez walks…
I guess this means Vidro hits a two run homer if the opposite continues
Dave, you’re a fool. The most important thing is to ESTABLISH THE FASTBALL. That is what The Book says. You know nothing about baseball. Leave it to the experts.
(Say, is that an iceberg up ahead of us?)
Dave. Is there any way, physically that the pattern they’ve been following could work better for him?
I missed the first inning. Let me guess, he started out all fastballs, none above 97 and probably only a few above 95?
Vidro…..
70-no problems with mlb.tv here although I have noticed it has been behind a little bit more than normal
I was worried at first that was going to be an inning ending dp
Okay, now double steal!
heh.
I’m going to drink every time Blowers says “nice piece of hitting.”
Opposites continue, he had a great chance for a DP and then nailed a LD single.
I can’t get mlb.tv to load either. ticking me off
The Mariners are looking patient against this guy. What’s up with that?
Hey, Rick Rizzs!
It’s pronounced “you-ma-till-a,” not “oomateeya.”
Thank you!
#83. I think it gets contagious. Seriously. The Red Sox have played a few teams that swing at everything and then suddenly act fairly disciplined against them. It’s almost like they’re shamed into it because it’d look even more dumb when the other team’s working your pitcher.
Purty. Remember when Richie used to walk a lot?
We’ll trade you Don Orsillo for Rizzs.
Richie used to walk at all?
I don’t know what’s more frustrating, not being able to see Felix throw all the fastballs and wanting to (screw you mlb.tv). Or just knowing that’s what I’m missing.
80 – I’m gonna drink every time Felix throws a first-pitch 4-seamer. It’s ok, I’m not going anywhere tonight. Besides, I’m drinking Sam Adams. Yummy.
82: right there with you, it’s not even prompting me with the login screen.
I have to say I like that Richie seems more patient at the plate this year. Drawing walks isnt a bad thing, in the past it would just be another K.
How do you pronounce Orsillo–”urzillyou?”
Dave. Is there any way, physically that the pattern they’ve been following could work better for him?
No. Mixing pitches is better than being predictable. It’s the difference between throwing and pitching.
WTF? Is this a special pitch with your head up your butt promotional series for the Sox?
Kenji is HARD, man. I love that guy.
Richie walked nearly 90 times in 2005.
Sam Adams? Not Red Hook?
#83 I hope that this is an intentional change of strategy for the M’s.
I finally got it loaded… and we’ve got the bases juiced!!! I got in through mlb.com, scoreboard, then clicked on the mlb.tv if that helps anyone else
Man this is upsetting. I got mlb.tv for the main reason to watch Felix.
Gabbard looks like he’s working harder than he needs, motion-wise. Bad for the accuracy.
C’mon Guillen, convince us Broussard belongs on the bench!
31 pitches. One-third of an inning.
My mlb.tv just came on!!!
My mlb.tv just came on!!!
#93. Any of “moron”, “cipher”, “spouter of irrelvancies” or “fountain of blather” are deemed correct pronunciations of “Orsillo”.
Failing that, he pronounces it or-SILL-oh.
When he was with Milwaukee he averaged something like 60 walks a year. Not a lot, but respectable and wouldn’t you know it those were the years he had the highest OBP
Mariners…plate discipline…does…not…compute…*ZZZZZT*
So far, predictable is beating wild.
So is this Snyder turning around and pitching with his left hand or what?
This guy might not make it out of the first inning.
89 – Felix abandoned his FB heavy approach once he got into trouble, struck out Drew on all breaking stuff, his hard 90mph slider made him swing and miss twice and then struck him out on a 84mph curve, then got Lowell to hit into a dp on a breaking pitch. Youk hit a hung but out of the zone curve to drive in the 1 run for Boston. We’ll have to see how Felix goes the rest of the game though.
And Gabbard was the one who looked poised against the Braves a month ago. Now he’s absolutely hopeless. Great.
#107 — I take it you’re a Sox fan. M’s fans pronounce all of those words “Ron Fairly.”
This kid seems to be getting squeezed. He’s not doing himself many favors, but the ump is not giving him many marginal calls. I like this new found patience in the Mariners. It’ll be tested if Yuni comes to the plate.
I’m thinking if I was up to bat about now I’d take a strike.
Plate discipline is easy when the pitcher can’t find the dish.
Perhaps the Ms are following logic as such:
1. The pitcher has poor control.
2. The pitcher is constantly pitching outside of the strike zone.
3. The batters in front of me are getting walks.
4. I am now up.
Ergo
5. I will sit on pitches so I can walk.
Any bets on which Mariner decides to take a swing at one that they should be taking since Gabbard can’t find the strike zone with two hands and a flashlight
Is Gabbard really that wild this inning or are the M’s really that patient?
Patient doesn’t work if the guy is throwing strikes.
Have to think it’s his wildness with the vets waiting on him to deliver strikes.
Gabbard!
Unbelievable.
Go extend your lease at your apartment in Pawtucket, Gabbard. No one will trade for you and you’ll never get called up again.
4 walks and a hit batter? Even your free swinging M’s aren’t dumb enough not to see that pattern. Here’s Yuni.
120 – Yuni will
Beltre taking a low ball for a walk? Willie is going deep today!
If this trend continues, the M’s will vault from last in the ML in BBs – by the end of the inning.
#121. I don’t think even some of the strikes that’ve been called were really strikes. He’s gotten some curves below the knee called.
Sorry Timlin, but Gabbard is my new favorite ballplayer.
Betancourt doing his best Vidro impression.
Holy cow, Gabbard’s at 33 pitches and has one out.
Well…ya had to wonder when someone would hit into a DP. We just thought it would’ve been Vidro.
No way Betancourt was going to take no stinkin’ walk
43 pitches in the first inning. I don’t think he’ll get the complete game tonight.
Oh that’s criminal. Keep the effin’ bat on your shoulder Yuni.
Lets all pray Gabbard comes back for two.
Three runs on one f’ing hit by a team that doesn’t walk much. Go back in the clubhouse and review the rule 5 draft regulations, Gabbard. That’s your next chance to pitch in the major leagues.
Betancourt’s working on his merit badge in Clemency.
Betancourt has had a lot of big hits w/ RISP, but his criminal lack of discipline can sure be annoying. Even Beltre and Kenji managed to show some patience that paid off.
ding ding huhwhat wins
Well now that that silliness is over let’s see if Felix remembers he has a curveball.
I heart Mixing Pitches Felix. Fastball Felix is my least favorite pitcher ever.
97 – Thank you.
Richie Sexson numbers to illustrate what I am talking about. Strikeouts waaay down over previous years…
Year AB BB SO
2005 558 89 167
2006 591 64 158
2007 250 28 53
2007(*) 550 61 118 *projected
Nice K on Varitek, but those first 2 fastballs looked distinctly hittable.
You’re upset James? I think Gabbard is lucky to get out of that inning with only 3 runs.
Discipline? With a 2-1 count you think he should take a meatball over the heart of the plate just because the pitcher is struggling? At some point you gotta swing at strikes. And when you do, sometimes you get hits and more often you get outs. That’s baseball.
2nd pitch in the Varitek AB was that a curve or a change? I’m not watching on TV and I can’t count on Rizzs to tell me anything useful.
141 – Can I pawn my prize?
Hinske. Every time he’s interviewed he talks about how he can be a major league regular and they make it sound like he’s being a saint for sitting on the bench with his red hot .194 average and total inability to cover ground in the field.
wow got the feed going just intime to see that nasty pitch for the K.
I heart low pitch innings for Felix.
#146. I agree. The bleeding could have been fatal but he stabbed himself repeatedly to cause the wounds.
what kind of pitch was that 89?
Good pitch selection = 1-2-3 inning. Go figyah.
I mean the 89mph that was a high strike
Well, he’s mixing his pitches now. That’s encouraging. What was that to Alex Cora? 89mph curve? Or change?
“low pitch count” innings, obviously
He is throwing a 1 hitter, I would send him back out. Please please please Francona!
6 fastballs, 2 sliders, 1 curve = 3 outs.
This is so fricking simple.
147
You’re right. Yuni is an extremely disciplined player. My bad.
Mike G. The strikeout on Varitek was a really nasty 88mph Felix curve.
Felix seems to have his velocity tonight too…
MY GOD, WILLIE!
Welcome back, Mr. Gabbard!
Willie powah! Huzzah!
Holy Shit! Someone called it!
#159. Don’t worry. Francona is OBSESSED with the notion of managing for the long run and not burning up the bullpen.
Bloomquist homers? That’s pathetic. Can we DFA Gabbard between batters?
Oh my!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HahAHahahah. Nice work, bhsmarine.
GRIT BLAST!!!!!!
Hey hey! Who called that?
Willie: You see, Adrian, that’s how you do it.
This Web site is about to explode.
And yes, congrats to whoever called it.
WFB – Hades is now frozen. I got my ski boots on!
I TOTALLY CALLED THAT SHIT!!!!
128!
Felix throwing his curve usually makes for a Happy Felix Day.
Wow. You give up the funk to Bloomquist and its time to hit the showers.
“Willie Boom Boom, goes Boom Boom!” Sounds like a drag queen stripper.
Oh man…can’t field either!
a haiku:
With the bases juiced,
you’ve gotta swing at meatballs,
create runs that way.
long time reader, first time poster, thought i’d come in and give my cheers to mr. boom boom
I’m sure this has been said, but how much did Alan Embree suck today?
Gabbard is just clicking on all cylinders. What’s left? A balk. A wild pitch. Hmm. Errant pickoff throw. Maybe failing to cover first.
Oh well, let’s stick with tried and true and fall behind in the count to guys who don’t walk.
I am officially not able to comprehend the previous eventts.
Nice job bhsmarine.
I didn’t say Yuni was disciplined. But there was nothing wrong with his pitch selection that at bat. He took the first pitch for a strike — good idea with the pitcher struggling. He took two balls — good. Then he got a BP fastball over the heart of the plate and swung. That’s what he was supposed to do.
And to Yuni’s credit, his P/PA has gone up each year since he came in the league.
Bucky Freakin’ Bloomquist
Hey, Doyle started rehabbing with Sacramento on Sunday, I just noticed. Although he’s not hitting so well so far, as in at all.
The thought of the Ms beating the Sox in a series – or even (gasp) sweeping – hurts my brain.
This is really entertaining.
I think I should get a buy me a beer link for that, any chances Dave?
Sigh
Is this the same pitcher that Ked Ichiro in the first?
Turbolicious! I’m glad James T. got to see what we go through with Vidro over here.
Now that is a lack of discipline.
thanks Turbo
Vidro hit into a dp? Who would ever have foreseen that?
Vidro with his patented GIDP move.
Some things in life are almost prefectly predictable. A Turbo DP is one of them.
Wow, that girl beind Sexson sure finds those baseball cards fascinating.
Turbo hits into a double play while killing a rally hitting 3rd? Who could have seen that coming?
Oh, wait, that’d be in the game thread intro again.
5 more runs and I’ll be somewhat comfortable.
#191. What I see has passed through a different prism. Not entertaining at all.
Yikes. Speaking of scary roster photos:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5349
A Bloomquist HR and a Vidro doubleplay in the same inning…. does some lucky fan win a year’s worth of free groceries?
204. I understand. Been there. Many times. Last Friday, for instance.
I detect some Red Sox fan presence tonight.
James T: the Yankees lost to Baltimore. That’s got to cheer you up.
terry, hahahah classics 202 and 206
Out of Gabbard’s 62 pitches in 2 innings, Sexson has seen 16 of them. And hasn’t hit a ball yet (BB and K). I’m OK with that.
Vidro DP, Sexson K. Mariners are back to earth, no more Willie blasts today.
#209. Tremendously. There’s no schadenfreude quite like the enjoyment of a new york yankees loss.
1st inning: 1 hit = 3 runs
2nd inning: 3 hits = 1 run
Contact is always better than a K because it moves runners over right?
#205 – He looks somewhere between lobotomized and a kid whose puppy just got run over.
Is there a more empty 14 HR/44 RBI stat set around MLB? I’ve posted it before and I’ll say it again – Sexson’s stats are built on empty, game-is-already-over-addon-mode homers and ribbies. We have the least feared clean up- hitter in baseball.
The answer to most consecutive saves is probably Mike Timlin. He really went off in 1998 if I remember right.
E3
Um, he’s not all that nimble, either, is he?
bad sequence for Sexson here
Ole Richie (eyes rolling)
My 11-12 year old rec league 1B would have had that.
#217: I dunno, Sexson’s walk seemed kind of important.
I miss Ole.
Richie the last 7 days: 348/444/913. On May 7 he was batting 147. It takes a while to pull out of a hole like that.
His BABIP this year is 213. That’s some amazingly bad luck. I don’t see Richie as one of the M’s biggest problems right now.
I miss Olerud though….anyone got an Olerud jersey they want to sell…preferrably 26 inches armpit to armpit and 34 inches from the collar to the bottom?
Um, during this lovely little “Sheriff” reminiscence Mr. Blowers seems to have conveniently forgotten the ’97 season.
To Pedroia from NESN feed with guesses at pitch type.
92 mph (fastball)
85 mph (slider? Curve? It was inside
92 mph (fastball overthrown)
velocity not shown and I’m not sure. Slider?
94 mph (fastball)
Is this velocity a bit low for him?
Beltre is money in the field. Glad his fielding isn’t going “opposite” like everything else
Butler just tied it up in Anaheim. 1-1
Oh, jeez. How did Crisp not score? Was that that close to being caught? Mmm. Not really.
Lopez should have had that. He has been sucking with the glove recently.
Yes – as noted in the game thread entry, Felix’s velocity has been down since coming off the DL.
Can’t really blame Lopez on that.
Anyone else notice Guillen looked like he wanted to throw Oritz out at first?
Gameday shows Felix throwing 95-89-97-90-97 to Pedroia.
Maybe they will be kind enough to hit into another dp like we did
There is no such thing as an empty HR or RBI. The Red Sox can score runs in gigantic bunches. I will take all the HRs and RBIs we can get.
Interesting. So, Gameday gives him a few mph more consistently.
You know, I knew the Reds were a bad baseball team before we took 2 from them this weekend, which was nothing to get juiced over…. But they freakin’ stink.
Vidro is tied for 6th in MLB in DPs now.
I guess that’s the slider with the sharp break that’s coming in 88-90mph. Even Blowers is noticing that it’s effective.
217. For two years, opposing managers have walked the previous batter to get to Sexson. Last year he made them pay. This year not so much.
Dave. I mentioned the 92′s etc because the NESN gun had him throwing faster than that in the first inning. I was sort of wondering if he had some kind of problem where he had full heat at the start but had to tone it done after that.
JD Drew has swung the bat like Nancy Drew lately
I guess the way to make sure the guy in front of Sexson doesn’t get walked is to bat Vidro in front of Sexson.
Brilliant!
Oh cut the crap.
Amazing play, Jose!
If Felix is hitting 97 on the gametracker, he’s probably registering about 100 on the stadium gun….
Does anyone know how gametracker registers it’s speeds? I think it used to give speed at release and speed while crossing the plate. Now it’s just one speed.
I take that back about sucking with the glove. I apologize, Jose.
Now there we go! Nice job J-Pez!
WOW!!!!! What a GRAB!!! Nice job Lopez.
Sexson’s OPS this year is 931 in close late inning situations. Not all of his home runs have been empty.
233- Lopez says shut your mouth when you are blogging about him.
Thanks Lopez. Fuck the Red Sox
2 observations:
1) It doesn’t seem like Felix is throwing his 2-seam fastball at all. I remember seeing a lot of it on Opening Day (the only other Felix start I’ve watched).
2) 242: Yeah, when BLOWERS can tell your fastball isn’t very effective on its own, you’d really hope the Mariners organization wouldn’t be too far behind.
Lopez!
If that’s not a Web Gem tonight, it’s just more proof ESPN doesn’t think there’s any baseball team outside of New York or Boston.
Gameday is still giving release speed and “result speed”. That last pitch was 96 at release, 88 at the plate.
I can only hope that Gabbard is coming back out for at least another inning or so.
WOW!! Just as I was cursing the infield defense this inning….I’m with Dave on Felix, you can’t argue with his research, though I continue to worry about his arm also. The M’s have proven over and over again that their decision-making process is rooted firmly in the 1950′s, so none of this should be surprising. And Lauren, after our discussion of SAT scores last night, you should be “SMART token chick.”
Gabbard has only thrown 62 pitches. He should be good for one more inning.
The enhanced gameday system (called Pitch F/X) that is installed in Safeco uses multiple high speed cameras to record all kinds of things about the pitch, including velocity, angle of break, horizontal and vertical axis release points, and a few other things that are tough to get your head around.
It’s an awesome, awesome technology. It has start velocity and end velocity, but the application only displays start velocity. The full xml file with all the data will be available online after the game. This system is why I don’t have to manually chart all of Felix’s starts anymore.
When Gabbard finally exits I hope Timlin relieves him.
Yes, Gabbard’s still with us.
Well, this will seem like sour grapes but I didn’t think it was *that* great a catch. Don’t most 2B men catch that ball? I don’t think a persecution complex should rest on that one.
Dave, who pays for that camera technology… MLB or someone else? And why is not everywhere?
Not knowing much about the Red Sox roster, can someone tell me why this guy is starting for a first place team? Can’t they do better?
Gabbard could walk Rob Picciolo tonight.
Aw! I hadn’t seen them showing Ole before. That must have been when y’all were commenting about him. He was one of my favorites in 2001′s jump-on-the-bandwagon season that made me a baseball fan against my will.
Err.. why is IT not everywhere?
I was watching Homer Bailey last week in Oakland and the gametracker was registering his velocities about 3 mph slower than the stadium gun.
Olerud looks like a big version of John Stockton.
Pitch F/X is owned by MLB Advanced Media, the company who runs MLB.com and all its entities. It’s getting rolled out in all 30 stadiums, but Safeco was one of their test parks, so it’s already up and running. They’re hoping to have the system installed in all 30 parks by the end of the year.
Nawh, I didn’t see him earlier, just wish we still had those soft hands of his at first base still. Saved many an infielder many errors a season.
Schilling’s hurt and Lester still hasn’t gotten back to the major leagues yet. This guy and a guy named Devern Hansack have both been pitching fairly well at triple A. But they used both against the Braves in May and Gabbard (ironically) seemed the much more poised one.
Thanks James. Glad to have you here, by the way.
#258: dumb question but where are you seeing that data. I’m only getting SPD/BRK/PFX
Dave. Is there any tie in at all to the questec system? Will this end up replacing it?
Almost every stadium gun is going to be several MPH fast. The pitch f/x system is more accurate than a radar gun.
There’s a downloadable XML file for Pitch F/X? Why didn’t anyone tell me?
Hmm. I could do all sorts of sinister AJAX stuff with that….
Gabbard can’t throw a strike and here’s what they do:
Kenji: swings at first pitch, fly out.
Guillen: walks on 3-1 pitch.
Beltre: swings 2-0, fly out.
Betancourt: swings 1-0, ground out.
Thanks for the hospitality, Ralph.
#258: dumb question but where are you seeing that data. I’m only getting SPD/BRK/PFX
I’m a nerd, and I cull the xml files and dump them into excel for analysis. If you google for gameday xml dan fox, you’ll find a link to instructions on how to pull the detailed data into a spreadsheet.
Pitch F/X is a much better version of questec, because it goes beyond simple ball/strike. But it’s a similar idea. Once MLBAM gets it rolled out to all the parks and we get a large sample of data, it’s going to revolutionize how we evaluate the game.
In the last ten games in which Sexson has RBIs, in eight of them they were important to the Mariner win. In the last seven games in which he has hit home runs, they have been important to the win in all seven games.
Actual evidence, as opposed to a repeated assertion.
Sexson is a second half hitter. That’s not news. Sexson has been hitting well lately, and has been an important element of Mariner victories. That’s not news, assuming your eyes and mind are open. You’ll believe what you want to believe, of course.
277: In the upper right corner of the pitch track display, it shows “release/result” of the last pitch. that doesn’t all make it into the summary table on the bottom left, but it is all in the xml!
Question for the M’s fans. Does Felix ever seem to fall in love with the breaking stuff and under-emphasize the fastball?
I’ve talked about it before, DW. Dan Fox, Joe P. Sheehan (not the BP one), and John Walsh have been doing awesome work by plotting the data from the xml files.
I get the xml files all the time but don’t usually have a ton of time to have fun with them.
This system is awesome but I also don’t think it’ll be free much longer. At least access to the xml files might not be.
IMHO, mlb would be smart to allow open access…. I think it’s the liberal access to a ton of stat data that has driven mlb’s popularity the last decade.
BTW, they’ve got to do something about their blackout restrictions with mlb tv…
97 mph heat just low according to the NESN gun
I should criticize Jose more often.
Lopez has earned his garlic fries today!
Felix pitches the same every game – all fastballs early, then 50/50 in the mid-innings, and almost breaking balls at the end of the game. He goes from a flamethrower into a junkballer as the game progresses.
Alex Cora’s a bit like a red sox WFB. The announcers never stop gushing about what a genius of a player he is somehow overlooking that he’s an idiot at the plate.
Now that’s worth repeating.
I think I hate Crisp’s batting stance more than anyone else’s in baseball
#285: thanks! DUH.
Nice pirouette after the K!
Crisp strikes out on three pitches – none of them fastballs.
It’s just remarkable that he is willing to put himself in a hole to start every single game.
#284: conceding everything you said, Sexson still isn’t worth the $$ the M’s threw at him. It wasn’t one of their more catastrophic moves, but it wasn’t a good one. He’s part of the pattern of overpaying 2nd level and/or washed-up players (see also Ibanez, Vidro, Guillen, Aurilla, Cirillo, etc., etc.).
He just changed to that stance a couple weeks ago and started hitting immediately thereafter. So, the stance is okay with Sox fans. But yeah, weirdly rigid.
286. We wish.
Hey, stop tainting the debate with facts.
286: It’s about the opposite.
#292: I have no idea why an organisation would let it’s ace be so predictable.
Unbelievable, KC is up 5-1 now. Cmon M’s
295 – I have to go with Tony Batista’s. But Coco’s is pretty bad, too.
Ok…I’m in a weird place now. After the extra-inning game when I promised I would enact a moratorium on negative comments about Willie, he’s having a really hot streak.
Does this mean anything? Should I be creeped out? Does this mean I’ll never be able to make fun of him again?
299-
Look at the 2 years prior to the Sexson signing – the M’s had finished at or near the bottom in runs scored, needed a kick start to their offense, and overpaid to make that happen. You have to look at things in context.
Did you know Richie’s most similar batter through age 31 is Mo Vaughn? It’s hard to see Richie aging well.
Well, that’s a good start!
I’d seen the Dan Fox articles, but I figured he was scraping it from some third party source.
I really hope MLBAM doesn’t lock this data down and also looks to converting this to a RESTful API. I could understand why they would lock it down — this is a bounty of data for unlicensed fantasy leagues — but wow, this is an sea of data.
I really think I need to whip up some AJAX.
I don’t think anyone would argue that Sexson is worth the money, but stating erroneous information about him based on personal observation has to be called out.
Come on Turbo, don’t suck please.
thank god no runner at 1st.
Since the double play is not an option here, we need one of Vidro’s patented dribblers to score a run.
299: I’d never disagree that Sexson is overpaid. I wouldn’t dispute that he’s having a suckass year, either (so far). It’s just fannish nonsense like “and none of his big hits really mean anything, either” that is irritating. It’s ballpark bullshit, and should be left to talk radio.
Kudos to JLO for recognizing that Vidro was on deck and that needed a double.
306-Craig Counsell’s always kind of bugged me too
We’re easily going over 500 comments today.
richie can show us all something right here, i have faith
They pitched around Vidro to get to Sexson. Please don’t hit it on the ground, Richie.
So, after that brief interregnum we return to first inning Gabbard. Wonderful.
I predict that this at bat will, in several people’s minds, prove their opinions about Richie.
I’m not saying Sexson hasn’t been helpful at times, just that he’s not worth the money he got, which could’ve gone to someone better. He just doesn’t rank very high among 1st basemen, which of course is a power position. I’m also saying this is part of a pattern for this organization; if this was an isolated case, e.g. as 308 says, in response to a specific set of circumstances, I’d be more forgiving. I’m with Dave on his evaluation of the organization as a whole.
Oh please. Julio Franco had them all beat with weird stances over 20 years ago.
#318. Counsell’s looks like the old Yastrzemski stance circa 1967. I always wondered if he’d seen that.
No one’s batting stance will ever be as absurd as Lonnie Smith’s.
I really hope MLBAM doesn’t lock this data down and also looks to converting this to a RESTful API.
If you have any specific suggestions, email them to me. I can get them to the right people.
284: Yes, stats can be used in many ways, such as you are doing. But this season … Sexson, batting 4th: OPS of 0.764. Batting 5th: 0.669. As 1B: 0.776. That’s a lot of nothing for $14 million. His 14 homers – 4 have led to a +WPA of > 0.20, 4 of a WPA between 0.10 and 0.20 and the the other 6 less than 0.10. I’d love as muich as anyone to see Sexson get it together and become a hige run producer. My point was that he has sucked basically all season. You point to the past week and I hope that continues. But I can’t imagine you are arguing that he hasn’t been a deadweight virtually all season. Or are you?
I miss the jay buhner
Not so much the stance but the hands on the bat of John Wockenfuss of the Tigers.
Or, all time taking a dump stance, Phil Plantier of the Red Sox and Padres. His made Youkilis’s look like nothing
I’m with you all on the silly ballpark comments part. Anyway, let’s see what Sexson does here.
the hands on the bat made it
Manny Delcarmen’s kind of a screw up.
Well that was perfectly awful.
I rest my case.
Wow. Delcarmen got 1. I’m pleasantly surprised.
For those wondering, yes, the FSN Tracer gets its data from the Pitch F/X system.
I rest my case.
And my prediction comes true!
The Safeco gun is crazy messed up.
Is there a key for the pitcher/player ID available somewhere?
Isn’t striking out there the kind of failure that ends up loosing you the game?
crap. an effective pitching change.
I have to say, repeated references to “Boom Boom” make me start humming the parody French number from “Little me” ….
Sexson is having his usual year, he will finish with similar numbers all four years he stays in Seattle. It would however be nice if he wasn’t an Albatross the first two months of the year.
Delcarmen is Boston’s Morrow.
That at-bat really reflects what I don’t like about Sexson. What you absolutely have to do in that situation is get that guy from 3rd home, e.g. you have to hit a fly ball. Basic situational baseball. Instead, Sexson sees all those runners, thinks GS, swings for the fences and strikes out, and the team gets nada.
Is there a key for the pitcher/player ID available somewhere?
No. The easiest way is to just use baseball-reference’s game logs to find out when the pitcher you want to look up last pitched, then look up that game’s xml file. A few clicks and you’ll figure out what his ID is.
Is Morrow a kid who grew up in the area who has good stuff but has so far shown no real feel for pitching?
I think Garcia cost us another run there. (of course Sexson didn’t help any either)
346 – couldn’t have said it better myself…
What you absolutely have to do in that situation is get that guy from 3rd home, e.g. you have to hit a fly ball.
Sexson is a career .374/.420/.829 hitter with the bases loaded. I’m really glad he doesn’t care about hitting sac flies in those situations.
my, but this must have been a very slow game thus far– we’re only in the 5th?
Almost looked like Big Papi expected that pitch.
348 –
Morrow is the M’s first round draft pick from last year:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060616&content_id=1508386&vkey=pr_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea
That at-bat really reflects what I don’t like about Sexson
OK, I’ll try to beat Scraps to this.
On the season, Sexson has 14 plate appearances with a man on 3rd and less than 2 out. He has batted .308 with 7 RBI’s in those situations, and struck out 3 times. What’s your problem with those numbers?
346 Isn’t swinging for the fences similar to hitting a fly ball?
The switch to first pitch breaking pitches really is pretty obvious, isn’t it?
rigid, yet with at least two twitchy timing devices …
Any idea what Hernandez’s pitch count is at this point? They’re not saying anything on NESN.
Lets start an argument about Ks being worse than outs resulting from putting the ball in play. Maybe we can get Tango to stop by and comment….
80 pitches. Not good. But better than Gabbard.
Dang.
Ok, Dave, I’ll concede your point about Sexson with the bases loaded. Like I said before, my biggest beef with him is the contract.
Ouch!
msb: welcome to red sox baseball. Lots of pitches, lots of runners, lots of pitching changes, and routine 3:30+ games
And this is why we don’t waste those oh-so precious bases-loaded opportunities. >:(
well, fuck
I’m shocked. You can see Felix point up as the ball leaves the bat. Was he thinking it was just a popup?
Man this Boston lineup just doesn’t let you catch your breath….
352 – the first inning took over half an hour. VERY slow game.
Varitek looked like he knew he was getting a breaking pitch on the first one, too.
If you have any specific suggestions, email them to me. I can get them to the right people.
Thanks Dave. I’ll see what I can come up with. So much content.
For those wondering, yes, the FSN Tracer gets its data from the Pitch F/X system.
That makes me hopeful they’ll keep the XML feeds open. Otherwise, you’re probably looking at Fox/ESPN having to call their code on the MLB servers, and no coder likes having their code living on someone else’s server.
Is there a key for the pitcher/player ID available somewhere?
There isn’t one key, but every game directory has a players.xml that contains the codes. E.g. here’s tonight’s.
I could have used some meaningless HRs and RBIs from Richie when we were up a few. That said, no batter is thinking about either a grandslam or a sacrifice fly: or as Jackie Clark once said, when someone asked him to analyze his approach: “I try to hit the ball hard”
Sooner or later Felix was going to hammered for some runs. I couldn’t agree with you more 365.
Any team with advanced scouts can tell their hitters exactly what to expect Felix to throw in each at-bat. It’s really quite sad, and ridiculously stupid.
#371: thanks…. won’t take long before I’ll have a key
Dave, I can’t beleive there isn’t at least one deep thinker in the organisation…. how can their own scouts not scratch their heads and speak up?
speaking of future USSM Outings, howsabout a trip to a Felix with signage (none mentioning fries) … would a good 30-50 signs all held up in the early innings exhorting Felix to throw the damn breaking ball get anyone’s attention?
Don’t worry everyone – we’ve got rally fries now – we can’t lose…
When you realize the pattern it totally explains some of the swings early in the count.
Hmmph. 3-2 curve by Delcarmen and close enough to require a swing.
msb: a couple dozen “Free Adam Jones” sings would be nice too.
sure wish felix could locate…does he see kenji’s mitt?
does anyone have a flyball/groundball ratio. my friend jayson stark was asking…
382: and i thought the bright red mitt was a dead givaway
Again with the fries! At first I was annoyed, now I’m getting downright perturbed. Ah well, at least the kids are happy about it
9/1 G/F for Felix
Dave: Do teams generally employ “home scouts” to give scouting reports on how they would handle the M’s? Do the M’s?
Delcarmen had a lot of trouble putting hitters away last year. Let’s see how he does with this 0-2
that seems to be a much more unanimous sentiment than changing Felix’ pitching patterns….
I finally realized who Michael August Timlin has reminded me of all these years– Chris Cooper.
Every team has advanced scouts who go ahead of the team and scout the next opponent. The smart teams supplement that with in depth data, much like the Charting Felix series, that gives precise breakdowns of what pitchers throw in what scenarios.
There isn’t a pitcher in baseball more predictable than Felix, though.
No command.
Go Royals!!!!
Come on Boom-Boom!
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have Ignition.
Who is this guy in Bloomquist’s uniform?
#382: at last check Felix had 9 GO and 1 FO with 5 Ks…. you’d think that through 5, he wouldn’t have also given up 4 runs with that line
A little boom, but still a good boom.
free willie!
Free Willie!!
Yup. Getting out of that bases loaded jam was a fluke. Delcarmen has no idea where his pitches are going. Only he doesn’t walk tons of guys. He throws fat pitches down the middle.
Rally fries!!!!!
Grit single!!!
Willie!!! Haha, and someone was calling me out for saying that Bloomquist is one of my top 3 favorite current players on the M’s roster right now!
Yeah. I guess I meant is there a guy who’s job it is to only watch the M’s and just scout as if he was scouting against the M’s, and report it to them. I guess with the advanced data you referred to this might be seen as unnecessary?
I’m afraid these last 3 weeks will give a lot more life to the “if he plays regularly he hits” canard.
Say what you want about his lack of value, but he has come through in the clutch in game-winning ways a lot (I remember 5 times) in the past month.
Enjoy it while it lasts, ladies and gents. It’s his career year.
Has to be the rally fries.
I hate Manny Delcarmen. (this isn’t new.)
suzuki san is a professional hitter.
Completely useless info, but WFB homer was on his 1000 career AB.
My god, it’s still only the bottom of the fifth…this may end up being a 4-hour affair.
Who the hell said it was OK for Boom Boom to try and steal a base?!?!?!?!?!
And WFB grit strikes again – what Wee Willie givith, Wee Willie taketh away.
Grit CS!
does anybody know where dave sims lives? i need my inner-tubes inflated for the summer.
I liked the “1 game hitting streak” graphic they put up after Ichiro’s single.
Not only is this data going to revolutionize pitching assessment, it’s also going to allow for much more accurate hitting charts. A couple hours of coding and you could figure out what a batter can and can’t hit.
And if MLB turns this into a true API, anyone will be able to generate this.
That was a pretty HR. For them.
Wow. Hinske on the first pitch fastball. The seems like his first hit in a month. Good for him but . . . wow.
I hope this isn’t going to be one of those games where we lose 15-14 or something like that.
hmm. what would happen if they delivered the rally fries to Willie?!
get him out of there, puleeeez!
Is it just me or is this umps zone pretty inconsistent?
Okay, okay, I get it. Whomever I badmouth gets a hit.
Guh . . can’t bad mouth Big Papi . . .
Who among us would walk Ortiz here?
It was more fun getting killed than getting excited and then horrendously dissappionted every fifth day. The only thing I wanted this year was to see Felix have a good year and he’s just awful. Just awful. I’m willing to give up. Felix is bad at baseball. Trade him. Shoot him. Anything. Just stop getting my hopes up.
#423. Not just you. He gave Gabbard a few charity strikes and he called a first pitch to Youkilis that looked shin high and outside a strike for Felix. He doesn’t seem terrible, though.
Getting us to Youkilis is not any better than facing Ortiz at this junction
Personally, I wouldn’t walk him in the 6th inning of a 1-run game. Walks at this point only get you in more trouble. If it was the 9th with 1 out and a runner on 3rd? Then yeah, in that situation I would.
#426
Breath. In. Out. In. Out.
A guy I work with, who told me he had tickets for this game, knows O’Flaherty. We were talking about how a guy who can get left-handed batters out will always have a job. I’ll have to tell him the announcers just referred to him as the “The Big E” (gag me). On the other hand, every time I want to yell at this announcing crew, I just remind myself of Henderson and Valle, and suddenly these guys look a lot better.
#426. We’ll take him if you guys really don’t want him!
Give him some time. Dave and others seem to have shown that they’re not using his abilities in the most optimal fashion.
Well, The Big E kept Ortiz in the yard, at least.
I wistfully remember the days when we though Felix might throw a no-hitter or perfect game every night. Now we approach games he starts with fear. I wonder if his arm is still bothering him. The M’s continue to have one hell of a lot of pitchers (8 on the DL at present) with bad arms. They shoud hire someone to teach their pitchers good throwing mechanics in the minor leagues.
I don’t know if you guys heard this a few weeks back but a writer asked Ortiz about how he hadn’t been hitting many homers but his batting average was soaring at the same time and he said something like “Yeah, I’m turning into Ichiro!”
Mmm. Maybe not quite a swing but close. Greek god of hbp’s?
Smart move–setting up the DP.
And they were in his first two starts? There’s more to it than that. He’s broken. I don’t think he’s gonna get better.
Most of the pitchers on the DL aren’t actually hurt. The M’s just make-up injuries rather than optioning them to the minors.
So if Felix is this predictable, do we lay any of this on Joh? I don’t see him shaking off much. And I thought I remembered Felix having some improved splits when the backup catcher caught last year (who is not worthy of having his name typed)?
Javier Lopez looked really good for the Sox right up until they had to make a decision to keep him or J.C. Romero and kept him. Since then? Not so much.
How long can they get away with that?
Its not Johjima. His pitch selection is the same no matter who is behind the plate.
#440. The question would be whether Johjima calls a predictable game for the other pitchers, wouldn’t it? If not, why are they force feeding predictable pitches to Hernandez?
Everyone loves to comment about how bad Felix has been, but according to Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners have the worst defensive efficiency in baseball. No team is worse at turning hit balls into outs.
Felix has one of the best GB/FB ratios in baseball. Statistically according to modern baseball theory Felix is doing everything right. He allows over twice as many grounders as fly balls, he has an excellent BB/K ratio and K/9 ratio, and doesn’t give up a crazy amount of homers. Considering both he and Jeff Weaver have two of the highest BABIP rates in baseball, it seems the Mariners may have a historically bad defense out there.
At his current pace, Bloomquist needs 125,833 more ABs to pass Aaron’s HR mark.
Lopez started out as just a loogy then did pretty well against righties and now Francona’s convinced he can pitch to anyone. This is scary.
DAMellen — you come across as the worst pessimist I’ve seen since “Logan Summers” of the old P-I blog. Sheesh!
Vidro – a singles hitting machine … yep, that’s our DH.
FUNK BLAST!
TIMELY FUNK BLAST!
And, of course, a lummox hits a homer off him. Thanks Tito.
Yesssss!
#434: I have to yield to Dave again (439), but I also think you’re right that an awful lot of the M’s young pitchers seem to come down with very serious injuries early in their careers. Granted, this happens in every organization; not only is the arm not meant to throw overhand, it’s also not meant to throw sliders and splitters. However, I share your belief that the organization should be looking at this and trying to figure out if they could do better.
And OK, I’ll stop saying nasty things about Sexson.
Sexson Rules, inconsequential HR my ass!!!!
Damn you Sexson and your meaningless RBI!
FUNK BLAST!!!
Sexson!
He is hot. PLEASE find someone to take his contract for an arm, kthx.
Everyone loves to comment about how bad Felix has been, but according to Baseball Prospectus, the Mariners have the worst defensive efficiency in baseball. No team is worse at turning hit balls into outs.
Defensive efficiency has some problems. The M’s defense isn’t good, but it’s not the worst in baseball. The main problem with the M’s defense is their outfield corners.
Statistically according to modern baseball theory Felix is doing everything right.
This is why scouting is still valuable – I can demonstrably prove that Felix’s balls are getting hit hard because of what he’s throwing, and are less likely to be turned into outs, which has nothing to do with his defense.
Well OK, I take back everyting I said about Sexson. He’s the man, obviously. I just have to learn to look past the first third of the season. Richie … don’t you go back to your old ways!
I wish there was a better catch phrase than Funk Blast. Sigh.
I was about to post something about Sexson having the 8th best slugging percentage on the team (7th if you throuw out Washburn). Something told me not to hit “submit comment.” Let’s hope this second half thing works out again.
#444- as Dave said, just search ‘charting Felix’. Much venting on the subject has occurred.
and tearing of hair.
Four righty batters in a row and he brings in the sort of promoted loogy. Liner out. Liner hit. Homer. Why bring in Pineiro, who’d been pitching fairly well. Let’s use the least appropriate option. Yay!
o.k. small sample size I know for Riche HR, but great things come in small packages, or so I try to explain to my wife.
And don’t look now but the Angels are down 7-3 in the 8th.
I could take some tiny solace from these results if I thought Francona would realize that Lopez really can’t pitch to righties but he’ll have to suck horribly at least two or three more times for that to happen.
462- it’s less of a catchphrase and more of a pox on all Mariner Nation.
444: Our other pitchers are pretty much career junk ballers who have learned by necessity how they have to pitch to keep jobs. Joh’s input has very little impact on them. Not saying that he has much on Felix either if what dave says is true that his results are the same no matter who catches. Just a thought.
DAMellen, your optimism is overwhelming. When you have an once-in-a-generation talent like Felix come along, there come expectations of perfection. But when you take Felix’s age, lofty expectations, pressure to perform, and growing pains into account…. he’s doing pretty darn good.
He’ll be fine, it just may not happen as quickly as everyone here would hope for. But when it does all click…. watch out!
Well, guys, it’s been fun, but this game is going ridiculously long and I have to work tomorrow. Good night. (I can hear my NL-loving sister muttering about the AL, the DH, and games that run close to 4 hours–in regulation.)
thank god a liner was hit right at someone. That was horrible. Francona managed brilliantly in the 2004 postseason but sometimes in regular season games he’s totally different. An edge? An advantage? Best position to succeed? Nah. Let’s just see what happens with this. sigh.
I like the term “funk blast.” It’s much better than “Sodo Mojo” or whatever they were trying to use a couple years ago. (However, nothing beats “Refuse To Lose.”)
To say that Lopez is predictable is hogwash. His problem is location. Its not even his stuff. Look at his KO’s. Still fooling people. But no one gets away from spinners down the middle of the plate. That’s what he is throwing up there.
Anyone else betting on 40+ for Big Sexsi this season? 15th tonight, he’ll be at 17 by the break… plus his big second half…
Mmm, 9-3 Royals now. Suffer, monkey, suffer!
Way to give away the at bat Lowell.
nah, I’m sure that can’t [free Adam Jones!] be true….
um. “Home Run!!!!!” ?
Is anyone just waiting for Morrow to walk the next few batters like I am
Dave, I’m not saying you are %100 wrong, but would you say that Felix is considerably WORSE this year in what he’s throwing that last year? Because last year his BABIP was .314, and this year it’s over .400.
In fact the worst pitcher in baseball with 100+ innings last year with BABIP was Joe Blanton, at .341. The year before, Sidney Ponson at .358, before that Terry Mulholland at .346. That Felix is well over .400 seems to speak of two things, bad defense and a heck of a lot of luck. Otherwise you are saying that Felix’s pitch selection is possibly the worst ever, especially considering he has much better pure stuff than Blanton, Ponson and Mulholland.
While I do think Felix is somewhat to blame for his struggles, I think we are also seeing a pitcher being victimized by horrible defense and horrible luck as well.
KC just pummeling the Angels. Thanks KC!
Morrow 98: “No chance to catch up to that one!”
Fexix 98: single, single, hr.
I know, I know, but still…
KC up on LAAAAAAA by 6. Bloomquist with a homer… I could go on but this day is weirding me out. I’m on locust watch right now.
Lopez doesn’t have any stuff. His pitches are slowwwwwww. The break is nothing special. Against lefties, the extreme arm angle opens things up for him. If he’s not absolutely perfect righties kill him. Perfection’s a lot to expect. Much easier to bring in a righthander. They’re more common than perfection.
#482: just noted this. Kansas City? What’s up with that? Oh, wait. It’s because Gil Meche is on the mound for the Royals. I’m going to bed; this is just too damn weird.
Let me also add that with pitchers with 40 or more innings, going into tonight Weaver was #2, Felix #3, Horacio Ramirez #8, Baek #16 and Batista #18 in worst BABIP. The league average is around .290 I belive, but the best here is Bautista at .333 I don’t know if there can be clearer evidence at how bad the Ms defense is.
Dave, I’m not saying you are %100 wrong, but would you say that Felix is considerably WORSE this year in what he’s throwing that last year? Because last year his BABIP was .314, and this year it’s over .400.
Yes, his stuff is demonstrably worse. His velocity is down, his slider isn’t biting, he’s lost his two-seam fastball, and he’s lost the ability to keep his change-up down in the zone. He’s lowered his arm slot on his fastball and it’s made him more hittable. This is all easily provable, as Jeff Sullivan, Dan Fox, and I have all shown.
Otherwise you are saying that Felix’s pitch selection is possibly the worst ever, especially considering he has much better pure stuff than Blanton, Ponson and Mulholland.
I’m not saying Felix has a true talent .400 BABIP. I’m saying that chalking the entirity of his struggles up to bad defense is faulty. The flaws lie mostly with Felix and partly with the defenders behind him.
what are the cats & dogs doing?
6 Back in site…I’m starting to get excited again
Oh god. More Javier Lopez.
Please Tito. There’s a day off after tomorrow’s game. This is painful.
I know that Lou used to call the pitches from the dugout. I wonder if the pitch selection thing comes from Hargrove or Chavez. Dave should send them a copy of “charting Felix.”
Obviously, the M’s defense isn’t good. No one’s arguing that, and you’re not going to find anyone who believes in team defense more than I do. I really don’t need to be lectured on the value of defense in terms of run prevention.
But drawing inferences about the team being the “worst defense in baseball” because of Felix’s struggles is a bad assumption, and I’m trying to help you not make a bad assumption.
Okay, the one batter in their lineup to whom Lopez should pitch. Annnnnnd they intentionally walk him. This just gets better and better.
Don’t look now but KC is up to 12 runs.
Looking at the July schedule I like the M’s chances of catching up when compared to the Angels.
Timlin?!?!?!?!
Does Pineiro have ebola or something?
Timline?!?!?!?
and on top of everything else we get to see timlin again tonight????
Dave, would you say the biggest factor in all the M’s high BABIP is bad pitch selection? Or is it more of a problem plaguing just Felix?
James T: It is nice to see that Red Sox fans are as cynical about their manager as we are about ours, even though you have the best record in baseball.
Certainly Felix hasnt benefitted from good defense. But defense numbers would are equally bad for all pitchers.
As for Brandon Morrow anyone who’s ever played baseball knows that its not just velocity but how well the pitcher hides the ball. Brandon Morrow’s velocity is sneaky because he can hide the ball better than many. Alfonso Soriano also had this ability.
Why is it better to use Timlin 2 straight days than to use Pineiro here and *maybe* use Timlin tomorrow? I don’t get it.
500-I sure hope you mean Raphael Soriano because Alfonso didn’t pitch that I can remember
Actually Ichiro hits lefties quite well, .354 this season.
Yay Timlin!
Cmon Timlin now’s your chance to regain your status as my favorite BoSox player.
The pitch selection thing is mainly a Felix problem. Baek, Ramirez, and Weaver have high BABIPs because they have Triple-A stuff, and the BABIP theory only applies to major league pitchers.
500 Did you mean Rafael Soriano?
Rafael?
BABIP at the major league level is a better indicator of defense than it is of pitch selection.
I’ll eat my socks if Vidro hits a funk blast here.
of course I meant Rafael. I was looking at ESPN and a highlight of Alfonso
Given the frequency in which Ichiro gets the free pass (more than Griffey or A-Rod ever got in their monster years), could it be said that sacrificing in front of Ichiro is essentially trading an out for a BB?
What’s the better base/out situation?
Man on First, No Outs (no sacrifice)
Man on First and Second, One Out (sacrifice + ibb)
I HATE TIMLIN!
I feel like I watched an episode of Danger UXB
occasionally. not the whole game. Lou actually wants a catcher who can run a game, a point which came up again just this last week, actually:
“I looked over at the dugout and Lou was yelling things, waving his hands around,” Marzano said on Wednesday. “He was really worked up. I thought, ‘Man, the pitcher really did something to get him mad.’ ”
Then the inning ended and Marzano returned to the dugout. “Lou ripped my helmet off and got in my face,” said Marzano, who now works for MLB Radio. “He wanted to know why I was running the game the way I was. He blamed me for the pitcher. That’s just the way Lou is. One thing he insists on is having a catcher who can handle pitchers. He’d give up hitting for defense at catcher every time.”
BABIP at the major league level is a better indicator of defense than it is of pitch selection.
In general, yes. With Felix? No.
Ironically, Morrow is immune to Steve Blass disease.
let’s not start with the walks.
ah, but he had a great cookie recipe in the first M’s cookbook …
man, that series was chockfull of character-acting goodness.
Remy’s questioning the pitch calling for Morrow over on NESN
I got to the game late, why isn’t Manny in the lineup?
BABIP has little to do with pitch location. It’s a simple probabilistic statistic that can be used to predict whether a pitcher’s performance is below or above where it needs to be. Sort of like run differential predicts win-loss record. High deviations from the mean usually predict that pitcher will regress or improve towards that mean. Average BABIP in the major leagues is .290 deviations from that are usually because of bad/good luck and bad defense. Right now Washburn is regressing to his mean -he was extremely lucky in his early starts.
I’ll bite what is the proof that Felix’s pitch selection is worse than average -or compared to the other mariners pitchers.
Totally cheap. But it’ll be a liner in the box scores.
Is Putz available and healthy? I know Sherrill’s coming in. I’m just curious.
Look, enazario, I don’t want to be rude to you, but you’re attempting to explain something to someone who knows way more about the subject than you do.
I’ve written tens of thousands of words on the BABIP theory, how it relates to regression to the mean, and how it applies to specific pitchers. They’re all publically available. You can do 10 seconds of googling and find all kinds of information on the subject.
You don’t have to agree with me, but you should understand that I’ve come to the conclusions that I have because I understand what we’re talking about better than you do.
#519. Manny, intermittently, regards days off as status symbols and the Red Sox are giving him one for no particular reason. Maybe to get him ready for the scheduled day off on Thursday. Can’t just jump into that lethargy, you know. Gotta ease into doing nothing.
519. Day game tomorrow, Giving him a rest.
Is Putz available and healthy? I know Sherrill’s coming in. I’m just curious.
*sigh*…
Yeah, you’re right, it was a good recipe indeed. I’m sorry Timlin, let’s put this whole ugly scene behind us and start anew.
Wait? Jones doesn’t have 58 doubles, does he?
FSN just put up Adam Jones minor league stats. Does he really have 58 doubles this year?
526. Available yes. Healthy? He doesn’t seem like the old JJ this year since his spring training injury problems, despite his perfect record this year in saves.
Look Dave -
The easiest way to win an argument is to claim superiority of knowledge without proving it. I’m not doubting your credentials -you’ll forgive me if I am not one to follow religion.
enazario,
There’s a difference between “not following” something and “completely ignoring another person’s points.”
You’re doing the latter. Now knock it off.
Adam Jones has 19 doubles and 58 RBIs.
Pretty bad when FSN is dropping hints on what roster moves you should be making.
Sherrill for God!
Ok that should have been 58 RBI. Much saner.
Geez, Sherrill is absolutely money.
I’ve proved it – you just are apparently unwilling to read any of the ridiculously in depth things I’ve written on the subject in the past year and a half.
This isn’t a situation where I’m not showing my work – this is a situation where you apparently don’t want to read what’s already been published.
Heh. Look, I have so little knowledge that I’m perfectly willing to accept that the USSM authors know better than I do about pretty much everything in baseball.
But there’s something both irritating and hilarious about the sentence “You don’t have to agree with me, but you should understand that I’ve come to the conclusions that I have because I understand what we’re talking about better than you do.”
ugh. That was almost predictable that Papi would stretch the zone and swing at junk. He’s done that a lot this year. Pitchers started throwing him fewer and fewer good pitches and he had a choice to stay selective and take a lot of walks, a *lot* of walks or swing more and he’s been swinging more. Not good.
#530 Maybe he isn’t as healthy, who knows, but it’s hard to deny that his performance has been oustanding this year. Just take a look at his WHIP.
I’m not ignoring his points. On the contrary, I am quite interested in understanding the assumptions behind his conclusions. I am absolutely open to learn more about the subject -I am asking for knowledge but I am not going to blindly accept anyone’s conclusion based on the claim that they know more than I do.
If this forum is about religion -not frank exchange of ideas and knowledge I’ll gladly move on to a different one and let everyone else listen to the homily.
Jones: 19 doubles, 17 home runs, .979 OPS.
539-
When a discussion dissolves to the point where one side is figuratively sticking their fingers in their ears going ‘blah blah blah’, then it’s apparent that they are wildly uninformed.
adam jones:
.316, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 90 H, 19 2B
you guys must’ve seen the 58 RBI…
540,
Do you not know about George Sherrill? I’m just curious.
I dunno, could be that Ortiz is still a fine hitter and that Putz is just utter death to anybody who bats left handed?
[b]enazario[/b] a couple of the authors on this site did work for Baseball Prospectus (probably the best stat geek site on the web, for many years running) crunching numbers, including Dave. They’re well published, and not the only ones talking about BABIP. When he says to look up his work, it’s not just looking for blog articles.
vita – it was a mistake on FSNW’s graphic. They put up “2B” instead of “RBI”
542,
Well, you’re officially on my douchebagometer.
Ok Obi-Wan. I mean Dave. What we should do is give a test for people in this forum. The selected readings of Dave are required reading before posting. If you have access to lexis/nexis should i point you to my scientific papers where I have done extensive statistical analysis that have been peer reviewed or should you just accept that I know more about the subject than you do?
It was a bad pitch.
If you want to know more about Dave’s research, just type in “charting Felix” in the search box above.
I smell a ban.
549: I will have to live with that disappointment. Geez Im really just a trying to learn something -I don’t understand why the vitriol and condescension.
holy crap man. enzario. chillax. grab a beer. its all good man.
this is a happy place. enjoy it.
552: Thank you. That is at least constructive.
You can post whatever you want. If you decide you want to come in here and outright state that I’m wrong about a subject that I’ve put hundreds of hours of work into, written numerous articles on, and have a ridiculous amount of factual information on my side, that’s not going to be met with a “what an interesting idea – let’s explore the concept.”
You’re wrong about this issue because you’re ignorant of the facts. That’s fine. If you really want to learn something about Felix’s pitch selection, I’ve littered the web with information for you to read.
Wow, between the administrator/reader battle and the action on the field, this has been one exciting night!
553-
No ban, I like to see those in way over their head continue to struggle until they inevitably drown in their mistakes and misery.
I have to wonder what (if any) research enaz has done on this topic, or if he’s simply arguing for argument’s sake? I’m guessing the latter.
Royals officially defeat the Angels and their filthy primate.
Bad time to mention that the Angels just lost?
This is a true save if Putz finishes it off. This kind of situation is why Putz’s streak is much more impressive than that of Eric Gagne.
555: I’m having blast. And a Hefe Weizen. And Mariners are winning. It’s all good.
enzario,
Have you made any attempt whatsoever to look at the many dozens of articles on this blog? Your answers are all there. Go read. If you want more reading, you can go find places like Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, and other groovy sites along with Fangraphs and learn everything that we… hell *I* have learned since coming to this blog regularly.
It’s out there. Educate yourself.
It must be nice to have a manager that uses a really good reliever, down by one run in the 8th.
554. No vitriol. Long time readers of this blog have read Dave on this subjects numerous times. Dave gets a little cranky when people question something he has analyzed in depth. Pretend you are in a college course and Dave is the professor. You are entitled to your opinion, but you need to back it up. And you need to read Dave’s previous posts on the subject.
It’s interesting that in the Felix discussion I can only find the word “command” about once or twice on this board. Felix and any other pitcher at any level will always be in situations where the hitter has a pretty good idea of what’s coming; the difference is that the great pitchers can put that pitch in a good location. Felix doesn’t seem to be able to do that very consistently.
Case in point the Hinske home run: that was a fastball about as in the wheelhouse as it gets.
Scalpel?
Forceps?
K.
Angels lose.
Lauren, “their filthy primate”? What titillating information do you have on the rally monkey?
561: there’s no bad time to say that!
Who was it that was complaining earlier Sexon’s HRs and RBIs only come in meannigless situations? It seems his HR is the diffrence right now between winning and losing this game.
What is a 9 inning game record for most posts?
Ugh. could see that that was going to be a dumb choice by Tek. No. He’s not setting up inside for the 87 mph fastball, is he?
Good hit from one Jima off another. Okajima’s got some pretty nasty stuff.
562. And more impressive than Guardado’s.
Don’t feel run off, and don’t be offended. The authors of this site, for the most parts are…well, geeks. Not that it’s a bad thing, I think it’s something everyone should embrace.
Mariners fans are lucky to have a blog run by people on the forefront of the statistical analysis crowd, people who really enjoy crunching numbers rather than just analyzing what a great swing a guy has. Unfortunately, they’re also rather brusque in dismissing arguments they’ve seen before. Yes, it comes across as rude, but they aren’t mean people…just…well, geeks. And this is coming from someone who is a self-described geek (although baseball is, by no means, my field of expertise…I just like it, and respect well laid out charts and arguments).
I love Hefe Weisen.
I also love La Ger and Por Ter. What are some other people’s favorite types of beer?
look at little Coco….flashing some leather out there!
wow. Good catch by Crisp. some guys just live right. Okajima’s got an ERA under 1. When he gives up a blast the outfielder makes a nice catch.
Did he just take away a home run? On Gamecast that one looked like it was over the wall.
cool, we didn’t need insurance runs right there or anything…
\sarcasm
#572 Don’t you mean that Willie’s blast is the difference?
573. I don’t recall getting to 600 before.
I thought Lauren meant Vladimir.
Dave -
I didn’t state you were wrong. I’ll re-read my post and if I said that I retract it. I wanted to understand your conclusions. I’m new to this forum. I don’t know you or your credentials. I was simply responding to your statement which boils down to believe me cuz I know more than you do. That is not what I was expecting and contrary to what I thought the forum was about.
I freely admit that I’ve read a book or two on sabermetrics -I am by no means an expert. I love baseball -like many here- and science. That’s pretty much it. So to those who think I am just trying argue for argument’s sake I am not.
Wow. Ignore the poor formating there. Excess pluralization, lack of commas, and assorted errors.
I’m blaming the bourbon. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
it’s also 2:30 in the morning for Dave.
thanks for hanging in there for us.
and from the no-duh file:
581: nah, just an over the shoulder basket catch at the wall…Ichiro makes that play, but I’m not sure how many other center fielders do.
#581 No, Crisp caught it at the warning track. Was a hard line drive type of shot though.
I’m diggin’ Covelli’s awesome 70′s fro.
Are we on a JJ splitter watch? Didn’t I hear one announced last inning?
563:
good man. you hang around here awhile and you will get a ridiculous amount of insight. about 100000x as much as you’ll get from reading some bob finnegan fluff piece, or some weak homer-spiel from softy on KJR. these guys are good. just give them a chance. that felix entry the other day was brilliant. and things like that come up all the time around here, you will grow to appreciate it. this place is for most of us our #1 source of all things mariner.
now i’m gonna get a mirror pond and watch jj close this thing out!
In case anyone was wondering, Dave and I believe this to be the most-commented-on thread in blog history.
Yes, more than Felix’s major league debut.
planB: holy shit. Um, no. I try to reserve my potentially horribly offensive racist remarks for inside my head, if they have to be somewhere.
wow
One wonders why this game would have more than the 1 hitter…
Jason! hows it going down south?
1 hitter game was a 4pm start here remember…
Not sure at first viewing if that was high. After the replay . . ehh. close but maybe just high
567. Agreed. Also on that homer, Kenji set up low and away, and the ball was over the heart of the plate.
Its all cause of Willie’s called homer earlier!
Wow, I would’ve been pissed if he had called that a strike on a Mariner.
It’s only 1:30 am, msb. But yea, I’m exhausted. This game needs to end soon.
And enazario, this is why you got the response from me that you did:
To say that Lopez is predictable is hogwash
You’re opening comment on the blog called all the work I’ve done on the issue “hogwash”. You’re never going to get anyone to engage you in any civil conversation that way.
So here is another question for someone who wants to point me in the right direction. I haven’t read or heard a satisfactory explanation of why certain players appear to be clutch (I’m not talking about Jeter). By this I mean why are there players that appear to perform better in “clutch” situations in a statistically meaningful way. Feel free to question my assumption.
who do you think looks like more of a porn star, JJ Putz, or George Sherrill? They both have that look.
GAME TIME.
True, working my quasi swing shift to avoid 520 traffic (6-2) I forget that. In fact, if I hadn’t taken a long nap this afternoon, I might have turned the game off when we had the big lead.
One more out guys!
one more!
J.J. Putz him away! The Fenway–err, Safeco–crowd goes home disgusted–err, satisfied.
PUTZ WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Ballgame, hell yeah!!!!!
PUTZ!
/game
JJJJJ-JJJJJJ!!!!!!!
595: Erm, humans are primates.
605-
It’s my opinion (and I think I am waaaay in the minority) that you have been unable to come up with a definition of ‘clutch’ because it just doesn’t exist.
Now there are players who shrivel up and die when it comes to important situations, but, given enough at bats, every player reverts to what they typically do, i.e. Jeter will bat a bit over .300 in both the regular season and the postseason, when he’s supposedly so ‘clutch’.
The problem is people are so desperate for heroes they remember the key hits, yet conveniently forget the many more failures. They remember player X getting a huge game winning RBI to win a postseason game, but forget the numerous times he grounded into a double play to end a game.
It’s my feeling that the sample size most people look at when describing ‘clutch’ situations are just far, far too small to come up with any sort of rational explanation. They want to take a 20 or 30 at bat approach and that just cannot be done to come up with solid results. If it really was so easy for these ‘clutch’ hitters to be able to deliver whenever they wanted to, then wouldn’t they be able to bat .400? .500?
Clutch is a myth.
Wow, what a way to end the game, striking out the side and Manny to close it out.
Fantastic game.
what are the odds Leyland invites
Mutt & JeffJJ & George to the All Star Game?and if he does, does he pitch them about 8 innings so they are rendered useless for the Tigers/Ms series which follows the break?
What I’m seeing is Felix still throwing 97-98 with his fastball with better command than he had his last 3 starts. He’s getting the curve over effectively, with most batters swinging over the top or just taking the pitch. I only saw him throw the 2 seamer once but it had good movement. The slider isn’t moving at all but it is 8 mph slower than the fastball so it’s a decent change of pace as an occasional pitch. Again he hardly threw any change ups but those he did throw had little movement.
Anyone with a 98 mph fastball and his curve shouldn’t be getting hit as hard as he is. Any mistake he throws is getting pounded. Even a lot of his good fastballs are getting turned on and hit hard. He’s not working up in the zone at all.
There’s something more going on here than recovery from injury. Teams are getting too good hacks on his fastball. I hate the tipping his pitches excuse used by every player when going through a rough stretch but I think there’s something going on here. Even when he moved out of the predictable zone, he was getting hacked on. Looking at the game again on TiVo I think his arm angle is different on the fastball than on any breaking pitch.
There’s something else going on here.
Well, what can I say? I’m feeling the joy. The Mariners just took two straight from a team that is dominating their division. The Angels and As lost. Felix did not pitch well, and they won anyway. OK, Ibanez and Guillen are not wonderful at the corner outfield slots, but Betancourt, Lopez, and Beltre are better defensively than they have played so far, and will start stealing some hits at some point. Honestly, who thought we would have this recrod on June 26th?
Interesting notion msb. Even if JJ & George are rendered useless for that series (of which I’m attending the Saturday game) they’ll still be superior to the god-awful Tigers pen. Todd Jones, for one, shouldn’t be closing games anymore, on any level.
615-
I tend to agree with you that clutch is myth but I can’t help but wonder if some athletes have the ability to elevate their game (unconsciously) at key moments. In other words, they can’t summon an elevation of their abilities at will, but somehow they undergo psychological or physiological changes at key moments which allow them to perform better.
#619: I’m not terribly surprised at their record. At the start of the season I predicted that the M’s would have an up-and-down season and finish 85-77, about 5-7 games out of wild card contention. This is another mini-peak, and I still predict they’ll finish with ~85 wins (83-87).
My start o’ the season prediction was like:
Angels 95-67
A’s 90-72
M’s 85-77
Rangers 12-150
I know there’s been a lot of anti-Niehaus sentiment as his play calling leaves something to be desired. However he still can paint a picture on the radio. I always thought that was his greatest strength.
621-
No, I don’t believe its possible whatsoever for any athlete to elevate their game like that. Like I said, the times it does happen are what people remember – the many, many other times they do not people forget.
It’s human condition to want, to need a hero to root for, to spin their consciousness around whatever positive memories they have in order to support that need.
I texted the M’s postgame show regarding Felix’s tendency to throw nothing but fastballs early corresponding to his early struggles. We’ll see if I win the $250 watch.
looks like you whiffed hard on that Ranger’s prediction, Ken, they’re a LOT better than you expected
621: Well maybe I’m a romantic.
.
I am no expert, but being “clutch” may be overrated but I think it does exist. It is scietifically proven that most people under “pressure” experience change inside their body. That change could be more adrenaline, it could be increased body temperature, or it could be stuff inside your head. Now, it is hard to determine to what extent these changes affect a person’s baseball ability since it probably depends on each individual. Some players may get very excited, making their body pump more blood, and maybe this will increase their reaction speed. Some players may feel too much pressure, get scared of the situation, and are not able to keep their usual swing. Some others may feel completely indifferent. Also, how a certain individual reacts to pressure may differ day to day depending on the person’s condition/situation.
Now, just because somebody is hitting .500 in “clutch situations” does not necessarily mean this person is a “clutch player”, since this could all be really random. Chances are, that the above changes will only affect a person slightly that its hard to prove clutchness, and clutch situations are so limited it is reach a good sample size to draw any conclusions. A player’s performance is affected by so many factors that it is very hard to isolate the “clutch” factor.
The problem is most people who call athletes ‘clutch’ do so without having a reasonable sample size in order to compare them to non-clutch situations.
I hate to keep going back to Jeter (because, quite simply, I think he’s the most overrated player in MLB today), but one need just look at his regular season batting stats vs. his postseason batting stats. You will see nearly identical numbers. This is a valid comparison due to the enormity of sample size of both. Averages state that players will always revert to form.
Reg. season vs. Postseason BA: .318 vs. .314
OBP: .390 vs. .384
OPS: .854 vs. .863
Queen Felix gets blown out again. Luckily we won. Is Hargrove’s pitching coach terrible?
Hey what position are you guys writing in Willie Bloomquist at for your All-Star Ballots? They don’t have an option for ‘Ignitor.’
Pinch Runner
623. Niehaus isn’t as sharp as he used to be, but no one, even on this website, that’s propelled by criticism mainly for the sake of criticism, could fathom replacing Niehaus with some new faceless talking head. For all his warts, especially now, Niehaus is the voice of the Mariners.
By the way, pretty “asinine” lineup tonight. 12 hits, scoring in four of the eight innings, six different players driving in runs, six different players scoring runs, including the much-maligned Vidro (2-of-4, 2 runs). Yeah, only eight runs. The lineup really cost us some runs.
I love Niehaus. Until someone of his caliber -or near it- is available to replace him he is still better than any of the alternatives.
planB: I’m glad to know you didn’t mean anything derogatory, but I would still suggest you not stroll down the streets of Atlanta, Compton or other stereotypical black neighborhoods calling everyone filthy primates.
Something I thought I noticed on the Felix comparison graphs that were posted last week (I think it was last week) was the break in his pitches.
On the graph from his early game against Boston, I thought I saw that his pitched were breaking 10-12″, and the most recent graph showed that they were only breaking 3-4″. I would have to look again to double check my info. I’m just going off of what I thought I saw at a glance.
If that is actually the case, what could affect his break so much? Arm angle, arm stregnth? I suppose it could be a million different reasons. Any theories?
629: Yeah Jeter isn’t even worth discussing he is as good (or bad) in the post season as he is in the regular season.
BTW, the Sons of Sam Horn game thread is pure win:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=20122
Particulars:
1) (before game) “Anything other than a no-hitter by King Felix tonight will be a success.”
(as game progresses) “How does a guy with King Felix’s stuff get hit this hard?”
2) (after WFB’s Funk Blast) “Oh dear God. That’s worse than giving up a HR to the pitcher. ”
3)(after game) “We should offer Papelbon and Buchholz for Putz”
For one thing, Vlad isn’t black. For another, even if I meant gorilla, I didn’t make a comment about all dark-skinned people, I made a comment about Vlad. Look at him! He is an ogre.
And third, how do you know I’m not black?
Well, Vlad’s not African American, but I’m pretty sure Nathan Bedford Forrest would never have put his name forward to be Grand Imperial Wizard.
638- That was some hilarious reading, thank you.
BKM – just becuase the M’s scored 8 runs off some fairly ropey Red Sox pitching does not jutisfy hitting Vidro third and Guillen sixth. They would have been more likely to score more runs with Guillen hitting higher in the order.
I once won $200 playing blackjack in Vegas. Does that mean it was a wise investment?
planB: Far be it from me to say I have absolute knowledge on random people’s ethnicity, but just because Vlad’s from the Dominican Republic doesn’t mean he’s not of African descent.
Also: How does your race affect the matter?
Anyway. Enough of this.
I think there certainly is clutch hitting. In high school. And college. Perhaps A or AA league.
At the high school level a lot of guys will freak out in important situations, and mess up. They won’t be “clutch” because they can’t deal with pressure. At the collge level you will have fewer. By the time you get to the MLB level all the players who have problems with important situations, by and large, will have been weeded out.
“anti-clutch” makes sense. Nerves, worry, pressure cam cause someone to perform poorly.
Anyone that has ever done public speaking has probably encountered that.
But, clutch, in the sense that a player can somehow magically elevate their performance in key situations? Doesn’t happen. Can’t happen, unless the player dogs it in non-key situations.
Well, there are two people involved in every pitching matchup: the batter and the pitcher. If the pitcher is “anti-clutch” (aka “chokes”) against certain batters (or certain kinds of batters) it’s going to make those batters look better. But unless you see that matchup a lot, that’s going to show up in the pitcher’s stats, not the batter’s.
There are other factors, depending on how you define “clutch.” If it’s just BA/RISP, almost all batters look “clutch” because those baserunners got there somehow, and that typically means the batter is facing a bad pitcher, or a pitcher who’s having a bad day, or is front of a shaky defense, or something, and whatever that is it generally works in the batter’s favor. On TV you often will see a stat showing a batter’s (higher) BAwRISP vs his normal BA, but what you won’t see is how that compares to all batters’ stats: most batters have a higher BA/RISP vs normal BA. And so a batter with a high regular average, like Jeter, is going to have an even higher BA/RISP, and that’s going to look “clutch” because you’re unconsciously comparing it to the ordinary BA of an ordinary batter. Add to that selective memory (Jeter might be “Mr. November” because of one key hit and “the flip” defense, but he actually wasn’t a very good hitter overall in that 2001 postseason) and it’s easy to fool yourself.
There are other ways to define “clutch” of course, “close and late” being one of the other popular ones. There’s been a lot of research done on this, especially in the past two or three years. See The Book by Tango (et al) for more. It’s possible that clutch really describes a talent possessed by certain players, but if it exists it is small.
On the other hand, it’s certainly true that clutch situations exist, and that certain players may find themselves in those situations more often than others, and that they may deliver in those situations (or not). So as a descriptive record, rather than a predictable talent, it’s possible to talk about players’ records of hitting in clutch situations. You can see this over at Fangraphs, (see the glossary for their definition of “clutchiness”).
How much of the pitch selection problem is Johjima? I don’t see Felix shaking off a lot of pitches.
Birdie, you’re in the wrong thread. And that’s been addressed. He did the same thing with Burke. And you are aware that most pitchers talk to their catchers before the game, and often establish how they’re going to handle the first few hitters so the catcher is going to call what the pitcher wants? Not to mention that if a pitcher has a very strong idea about how he starts games (or if the coaching staff has a “philosophy” that they want to see followed) the catcher’s hands are tied.
I don’t think it’s Johjima at all.