Ichiro, $20 million a year
Once the euphoria of the realization that Ichiro is sticking around, and will probably spend his entire major league career as a Mariner wears off, we’re going to see the questions begin to arise – is Ichiro worth $20 million a year for his age 34 to 38 seasons? If you’ve read the blog for any length of time, you probably already know my answer to that question, but let’s take an analytical look at it anyways. (Caution: Long Post, Some Math Ahead)
The first thing you have to do when evaluating a signing like this is to come up with a projection of value for the duration of the contract. Before we can know how much money a player’s performance is worth, we have to know what we expect them to do. In order to come up with an accurate projection, we essentially have to answer two questions:
A) What is the player’s true talent level right now?
B) How do we expect that talent level to improve/decline?
Let’s answer the current value part first. How good, relative to his peers, is Ichiro as a player right now? Let’s start with his offense, using Runs Created as the sum of his hitting and baserunning value.
2004: 143 Runs Created
2005: 114 Runs Created
2006: 113 Runs Created
2007: 77 Runs Created (Season Pace: 146 Runs Created)
We only go back 3 1/2 years because data beyond that has generally been show to have little to no value in projections, and we can almost certainly get an accurate true talent assessment of ability with that data sample. The most recent performance is the most important, but since 2006 is a full year sample and 2007 is still only half a year, we’re pretty close to the point where the 2006 and 2007 values can be weighted evenly, with 2005 and 2004 carrying less importance.
We’ll weight the years as 10% for 2004, 20% for 2005, 35% for 2006, and 35% for 2007, which gives us a four year weighted average of 128 Runs Created. We can safely say, accounting for a +/- 7 runs margin of error, that Ichiro’s true talent offensive level as of today equates to something like 120 to 135 Runs Created per season. Still with me? Good.
Now, we need to know how that compares to other center fielders. Teams win games by being better than their opponents, and players provide competitive advantages by generating more runs for their team than their positional peers. So, here’s a list of the Top 100 center field seasons in baseball, by runs created, from 2004 through 2007, with the caveat that Ichiro’s time in right field means you won’t find him on the list.
At the top of the list are two performances from last year – Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore both had fantastic seasons last year, garnering them significant MVP votes and establishing themselves as the two best center fielders in baseball. Beltran created 125 runs, while Sizemore created 124.
You read that right. Ichiro’s weighted average the past four seasons of 128 Runs Created per season is better than every offensive season major league center fielders have had for the past four years. Read that sentence again. Even if we just look at Ichiro’s raw totals without the weighted average and included them on this list, his 2004 season would be #1, his 2005 season would be tied for #5, and his 2006 season would be 6th. That, is, of course, until the year ends, when his 2007 total would almost certainly become #2.
In other words, unless Ichiro entirely falls apart in the second half, his last four years, had he been a CF full time, would have ranked as the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th best Runs Created seasons of all major league center fielders in the last four years. In the mix with the four Ichiro seasons are one Carlos Beltran season, one Grady Sizemore season, one Jim Edmonds season, and one Johnny Damon season.
That’s your top 8 center field seasons the last four years – Ichiro, Ichiro, Beltran, Sizemore, Ichiro, Damon, Ichiro, Edmonds. He’s a pretty good hitter, I think.
Okay, anyways, let’s get back to quantifying things, which was the original point of this post. The average Runs Created total of those 100 CF seasons the last four years (weighted for plate appearances) is 75.1 RC per season. Essentially, that’s what we’d expect an average offensive center fielder to give us in a full, healthy year. Ichiro’s weighted average, remember, is 128 RC per year, plus or minus a few runs.
Ichiro is something like 50 runs better than the average center fielder offensively in a typical Ichiro year. He was 70 runs better than average back in 2004, then dropped off to just 40 runs the last two years, and is on pace to be 70 runs better again this year.
50 runs better than average. Just with his offense.
Quantifying defense is a bit tougher, especially since we have less than one full season of data with Ichiro playing center field. Personally, I think Ichiro is something 10 runs better than an average defensive center fielder over the course of a full year, but the advanced defensive metrics we have don’t really agree with each other, and it’s nearly impossible to build an airtight case, statistically. So, as much as you guys know how much I love harping on the value of defense, I’m actually going to leave that part to you guys. We know he’s something like +50 with the bat. If you think he’s overrated defensively, maybe you want to adjust his total value down to +40. If you think he’s the greatest center fielder ever, you can adjust his value to +70. Or, if you just want to ignore defense entirely, you can leave him at +50. That’s your call. Personally, I think he’s something like a +60, meaning the total package of Ichiro’s offensive, defensive, and baserunning value is 60 runs better than an average center fielder, and that’s the number I’m going to use going forward.
To convert that runs figure to dollars, we have to figure out how many wins 60 runs above average is worth, and how much a win is worth. Thankfully, smarter people than me have spent hundreds of hours on these issues, and so I can just give you the short answer and keep this post from becoming any longer than it already needs to be. It’s generally accepted that 10 runs is equal to 1 win, which makes Ichiro something like 6 wins better than the average center fielder. Now, teams just don’t have average center fielders hanging out in the minors making the league minimum, which is why the concept of replacement level is so vital to contract valuations. What we really want to know is how many wins Ichiro is worth above the league minimum player, so we can know how much he should be paid above the league minimum player.
Again, smarter people than me have done the research on the typical performance of replacement level players, and have found that you can generally find a guy who is 2 wins below average with little effort. So, basic math says that Ichiro is something like 6 wins above average, and average is 2 wins above replacement level, so Ichiro is worth about 8 wins more than a replacement level center fielder. Depending on your opinion of his defense, you might have him as low as 6 wins or as high as 10 wins. But I’m pretty comfortable with the 7-8 win range as Ichiro’s current talent level.
Now, finally, we’re going to put a dollar figure on that. Harkening back to the research done by those smarter than me (basically, Tango, who I’m borrowing heavily from in this post), every marginal win is worth something like $2.5 million dollars to a team. Now, teams have to pay significantly different figures for those wins, with pre-arbitration players making just a couple hundred grand per win and free agents costing ten times that, but overall, the league as a whole spends about $2.5 million per marginal win added. Last year, free agents were commanding a little over $4 million per win, showing why I’m generally a big advocate for avoiding long term free agent contracts.
So, using $2.5 million per win as actual value and $4 million per win as market value, we can use Ichiro’s win totals to figure out exactly how much he is worth right now.
Actual Value: 8 wins * $2.5 million per win = $20 million
Market Value: 8 wins * $4 million per win = $32 million
Hey, look at that – Ichiro’s actual value to the team is worth something like $20 million this year. If he was a free agent last winter, and had signed a one year deal, we’d have expected it to cost about $32 million, based on the going dollar per win rate. Man, the final year of his last extension was a massive bargain.
Man, this post is long, and I’ve only answered the first of my two questions from earlier. I need to make the second part shorter or no one’s going to finish reading this thing. Remember question #2 from an hour ago when you started reading this post? Well, now that we have a pretty good idea of Ichiro’s current value, we want to know how we expect that to change as he ages.
Originally, I was going to go through the whole process of aging curves, when skills peak and decline, Ichiro’s uniqueness and how his health should alter our projections, but I need to wrap this up, so here’s the Cliffs Notes version. Tango has five good articles on player aging on his site, so if you want the math behind all this, that’s a great place to start.
A typical aging pattern for players would have Ichiro lose approximately 15% of his value each of the next two years, then about 20-25% in each subsequent year before the end of his career. Starting from his current level, then, you’d have something like the following projections of wins per season for Ichiro:
2008 – 7.0 wins
2009 – 5.9 wins
2010 – 5.0 wins
2011 – 3.7 wins
2012 – 2.8 wins
If he ages fairly normally, we should expect Ichiro to be worth something like 25 wins over the course of the contract extension. Of course, he’s Ichiro, and there are all kinds of reasons to think he’s going to age better than normal players, but that will be a discussion for another day.
Teams were paying just over $4 million per win last offseason, and free agent inflation has been rising at almost 10% per season. Based on normal inflation, and teams agreeing with my analysis of Ichiro’s value in terms of wins, we would have expected Ichiro to have signed for something like $121 million over 5 years this winter.
5 years, $100 million for Ichiro. It’s a lot of money. It’s also a pretty massive bargain at the same time.
Congratulations to the Mariners for signing a true superstar to a below market contract.
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Interesting analysis. And I think you can throw the aging pattern out the window with Ichiro. His obsession with stretching and keeping limber will probably add years of longevity to his career.
Whoa. I knew it was a good deal. I didn’t realize how good.
I propose that we have no idea how well Ichiro will age. You’re right: Athletic guys age more gracefully than Mo Vaughn, but Ichiro’s a unique player. There’s nobody quite like him in baseball, and his historical comparables aren’t all that comparable.
His playing style means that the loss of a step down the first base line, or a little bit of bat speed/bat control turns him into a marginal player. I get the feeling that, when Ichiro’s talent goes, it’ll fall off a cliff. (I get the same feeling with Vlad Guerrero, by the way.)
But, y’know, feelings are pretty much what we have to go on, because there aren’t a whole lot of good comparisons to draw upon.
I agree…this guy could play longer than Julio Franco if he wants, I bet. I’m intrigued by his mention of maybe wanting to pitch the tail end of his career, too. He’s never stepped on a mound and he’s already better than HoRam!
I’m especially glad about this extension because if he were to hit the FA market he would have commanded a lot more, in my opinion. I think the M’s would have let him walk rather than get in a bidding war, and we as fans would be the real losers.
Will Ichiro still be playing center field at the end of this contract? How much difference would it make to his value if, say, you moved him back to right at some point?
2: We can’t know, as you say, but I disagree with your guess about Ichiro’s style making him a candidate for precipitous decline. It’s true that he depends heavily on beating out ground balls, but I don’t think he’s beating out that many plays that are really close — that is, I don’t think that a little decline in foot speed is going to affect very many of those hits.
I have a theory about why people think that speedy players will age badly, when in fact they age well. I think that people think that speed is pushing players barely over a threshold, and they wouldn’t really be good without the speed. But I think the threshold is in fact much lower: that the point where a loss of speed starts making a big difference is somewhere around average baseball player speed. Average players decline because they hit that threshold as soon as they slow down at all; but speedy players have to lose a lot of speed before it makes a difference. An average player loses the ability to go from first to third on a single; a speedy player loses the ability to get there standing up, but still makes it safely.
I know the case of Ichiro is a little different, because of the ground balls; but I’m still betting that he can beat out infield hits when he’s 39 that an average player never beat out at his best.
I am going to point out that the price you pay per win is probably going to go up as the years go by (simple inflation of 2-3% is going take care of that). That’s NOT considering any additional revenue sources or national broadcasters doing something like throwing money at baseball….
Hey, if you have time, finish the post — put it up as Part II or something, since I’d be interested to read your analysis on Ichiro. For my part, I’d expect to see his walks and power increase as age takes its toll on his average; but maybe that’s just me.
I just would like to see the press conference before thinking too much about the details. This news is so good that I’m scared it won’t actually happen.
Ichiro is so skilled with the bat that I don’t worry at all about what might happen if he loses some of his foot-speed. He intentionally dinks the ball around now to take advantage of his speed, and I think he could easily make an adjustment to be more selective and drive the ball more if he ever needs to.
I’m curious to see how the analytical community reacts to the deal, since I’m not sure many folks have adjusted to the difference in value between Ichiro as a right fielder and as a center fielder, and since a lot of people still seem to want to take Ichiro down a peg or three.
I hope Ichiro or his agent don’t read this post and pull back from signing a bargain contract.
I can only think of one small point that makes this evaluation a little bit different. I think it would be better to look at wins over bench instead of wins over replacement. The reason why is Adam Jones. I know its a little bit complicated if you do it that way because he brings value if you play Jones in LF and Ichiro in CF but I think it changes the situation a little because he is there. Still, Ichiro 5/100 is a better deal than it initially seems. The only problem I can see is attempting to project Ichiro’s performance is nearly impossible but I’m optimistic and happy.
Interesting analysis, and spot on, I think. My first reaction was that Ichiro might be worth a tad more than $20M right now (though $32M? I never would have guessed that much), but *might* not be worth that in the last year or two of this contract. Having actually read (and followed) your entire post, though, I think you’re right on the money.
Count me among those who think Ichiro will age better than the average bear. I think Scraps is right about the way speed players age (and why, generally, they do so better than people expect), and Ichiro’s attention to conditioning and stretching should delay that even more than usual.
By the end of this contract, Ichiro will have at least 2500 hits (I would bet he’ll be closer to 2750 than 2500), a career average of probably something like .320/.375/.450, with 400 stolen bases, and nobody will have to bring up his Japanese League numbers to build a solid case for his Hall of Fame candidacy.
4 – I dont see why Ichiro will not be playing CF in five years. It’s not terribly uncommon for such players to remain in CF well into their mid and late 30’s. (See Lofton, Edmonds, even Cameron)
BTW – I personally think Ichiro will age much better than the average. He is, in my opinion, the best-conditioned athlete in the game today.
Making this deal an even bigger bargain.
What a neat athlete. I’m counting on Ichiro being the second Hall-of-Famer that M’s fans can think of as truly “ours†(after Edgar, of course!).
Also, Tango and his site and blog should be required reading for anyone with a budding interest in statistical analysis. If you’re lucky, you might even catch some spirited discussions about King Felix in the comments area
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Either way, it’s a bit unsettling the fact that none of this euphoric news (Ichiro re-signing, Jones recalled, etc.) has been confirmed. I’ll be crossing my fingers for the next 24 hours.
I wonder in contract negotiations, when a player re-sings with their current team, how much of a bargain. the recent years, the existing contract, comes into play. The M’s paid below market value for the last few years, therefore they need to pay at the top of Mkt value this year. I think we saw this with Bret Boone, where his first contract was a bargain, his renewal, not so much.
Great analysis, Dave. I think many of us would say that this post was certainly not too long, its a nice mix of detailed analysis and common sense.
One minor point: toward the end, there’s an intro of “following projections of wins per season,” but I think these are marginal wins per season, right?
14 –
The reason he wouldn’t be playing CF in 5 years is because Adam Jones might continue to develop his outfield prowess and surpass a declining (I agree that he probably won’t decline sharply) Ichiro.
Dave, I know you have been told multiple times you should be working for some MLB club but I think your skills for analysis would be invaluable to someone like Scott Boras. It’s not often someone can present a case for a $100M/5 year contract as “below market”. Nice job.
Unless I’m reading this wrong, Dave’s analysis should undervalue Ichiro’s offensive contributions, because it doesn’t account for his durability. By projecting the top 100 CF seasons of the past four years out to a full season’s worth of plate appearances, you’re making the conservative assumption that every center fielder is going to play the same amount of games.
In reality, almost all center fielders are likely to miss more time per season than Ichiro does, so any team with a non-Ichiro CF will end up with a stat line combining its #1 CF and a bench player or two, which means that the average CF production should be lower than 75.1 RC per season, while Ichiro’s RC/season should remain the same.
I don’t know if it makes enough of a difference to change the overall conclusion, but it seems important to remember that Ichiro’s durability is one of his biggest assets.
He won’t be playing CF in 5 years because he’ll be pitching!
It’ll be really interesting to see how much Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones sign for in the offseason.
Scraps, #5: You’ve got the good counter-argument, and I see where you’re coming from. Alas, I don’t think there’s enough evidence on either side to make a convincing case. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
As a Mariner fan, I’m hoping you’re right. It’d be awesome to see Ichiro play at this level into his late thirties. If he does, he’s a sure-fire HoFer.
Horacio Fernandez?
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Unless I’m reading this wrong, Dave’s analysis should undervalue Ichiro’s offensive contributions, because it doesn’t account for his durability. By projecting the top 100 CF seasons of the past four years out to a full season’s worth of plate appearances, you’re making the conservative assumption that every center fielder is going to play the same amount of games.
You’re reading it wrong. I didn’t project the CF seasons out to a full year’s worth of playing time – I took the total combined RC by those hundred players, then calculated a weighted average by plate appearances – this way, Carlos Beltran’s full season of 125 RC is weighted more heavily (and rightfully so) than Marquis Grissom’s 2004 half-season.
By using a counting stat like Runs Created, instead of a rate stat like RC/G or OPS, Ichiro’s durability is built into the value.
One minor point: toward the end, there’s an intro of “following projections of wins per season,†but I think these are marginal wins per season, right?
Pretty much whenever I refer to a player being worth a certain number of wins, I’m referring to marginal wins, yes. That’s what we really care about – how many wins is this guy better than what we could get for nothing.
I’m still uncomfortable with $20m/year being “below market value”. Who makes more? A-Rod and Manny? I’ll differ in my opinion in that while I have no issue with Ichiro’s play, I don’t think he’s straight up one of the best three players in the Majors over the next five years.
I suppose it depends on how the FA market for outfielders shakes out this winter… but I think anyone making more than $20m is overpaid.
Dave, what does all this do if Ichiro does move back to right field? Or if we waste some of Jones’ potential in RF this whole time? I know in a vacuum those considerations are irrelevant (and don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled we re-signed Ichiro), but the Mariners decision-makers are obviously a real group of people who will sub-optimally manage their financial and talent resources over the next five years. What kinds of problems do you see popping up as the team tries to build around this fair but very large contract? How do you think they should be managed?
This post is ridiculously excellent – well done, sir.
Dave, besides baseball numbers, what is Ichiro’s financial impact to the team in terms of gate receipts, marketing, and international exposure in Japan? I’m sure that benefit is huge for the M’s.
28 – it’s below market value because the market doesn’t value wins correctly. ALL superstar hitters, virtually, are below market value, whereas mediocrities (Jose Vidro) are way above market value.
This is the very essence of the stars and scrubs model of building a team – spend your money on true stars (who don’t get paid what they’re worth) and avoid spending it on average veterans (who get paid more than what they’re worth).
#16 — While I wish it were untrue, the likelihood of the BBWAA electing Edgar to the Hall of Fame is excruciatingly slim. He will have enough support to allow the M’s to retire his jersey number, though.
fetish, wait until A-Rod opts out and see what he gets over the next 3-5 years before comparing the relative merits of this contract with Manny’s and A-Rod’s (both of which were done many years ago). I hear what you’re saying – $20M is a huge amount of money – but if teams are likely to pay $3-$6M per marginal win for free agents next season, and (as seems very fair to expect) that continues to rise as it has historically, the case Dave made is pretty solid.
Also, I would take the next five years of Ichiro over the next five years of Manny . . ..
28 –
Ok – look at A-Rod’s Runs Created:
2004 – 111
2005 – 138
2006 – 117
2007 – 86(on pace for 164)
Using the same weighted average, A-Rod’s four-yeaer RC average is: 137 RC.
A difference of 9 RC between Ichiro and A-Rod. A decent gap, but not massive. Then take-into account Ichiro’s defense (with the +10 argument Dave cites above) vs. A-Rod’s value as a 3B. I can’t find A-Rod’s numbers, so I can’t make the strong argument my gut tells me is true – that A-Rod is not worth 10 runs as a defensive 3B. I’ll have to estimate that A-Rod is +5, but if I’m wrong, and someone finds the stats, I’ll recant that.
Given my estimate, Ichiro creates about 4 fewer runs over a season. Thus, A-Rod is worth 1/2 a win more than Ichiro, or about actual value of 1.25 million dollars, or market value of about 2 million dollars (present value).
Thus, even if we assume that Ichiro and A-Rod will age at the same rate – I doubt it – you have to consider Ichiro’s deal to be a bargain – he deserves as much as A-Rod, but will be making far less.
Will #51 be double retired for Randy and Ichiro? It would be amusing if the first retired number was for two players.
And if Ichiro deserves almost as much as A-Rod, and we expect A-Rod to get close to 30 million per in his next deal, then I’d say that Ichiro’s deal is well below market value.
Market value is what the market says it is, not what you think it should be.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/d-fence/
Per THT, Ichiro is 20 runs above the average CF, while A-Rod is 8 runs BELOW the average 3B.
I’m not sure how to convert this to a player’s worth in runs over another, but let’s just say Ichiro very well could be worth more than A-Rod today. Moving forward, that gap could actually widen, given Ichiro’s health and body.
More food for thought.
I’ll echo #30 and say this post falls in the “ridiculously excellent” area.
Question – how does one account for the value in Ichiro’s “low volatility”? I don’t think a counting stat like RC/G fully captures it, since it looks at averages over several season and doesn’t account for the magnitude of season-to-season variation. Outside of baseball, high variability in outcomes is usually a undesirable factor and you pay more for certainty. Is a player with low season-to-season variability worth more, and how would that be quantified? Or do you simply look at the sum player value over all of the seasons in the contract, and dismiss how that value is distributed between years?
Good analysis from a base ball perspective; but add to it the estimated $25m per year in cable rights from Japan ( which would be significantly less w/o him) and this is a screaming business deal for the M’s. I think Ichiro needs a new agent. Imagine what Boras would have extracted on the open market….
One thing to not forget, too. In 2001, the M’s took a HUGE gamble in giving Orix $13.1 million just to sign Ichiro in the first place. A lot of people thought they were insane back then. I’d be willing to be those same people are calling the M’s insane today, for giving Ichiro $20 million/season for his age 34-38 seasons.
I’m fairly certain those people will be wrong yet again.
Per THT, Ichiro is 20 runs above the average CF, while A-Rod is 8 runs BELOW the average 3B.
And MGL’s UZR, which is more reliable than THT’s RZR, has him as an average defensive CF. Like I said in the post – the metrics don’t agree.
There’s no way he’s +20 through half a season, though. That’s one of those doesn’t-pass-the-smell-test numbers.
I personally would like to see Ichiro shift back to RF and have Adam Jones play CF, as soon as next year. As long as Guillen can play in left, I think that would make an outstanding outfield, as well as groom Jones to be the true CF he can be.
Dave – what would say is the difference between Ichiro and A-Rod, strictly on the defensive side?
10 runs?
AJ in left, Ichiro in CF, and Guillen in RF.
That’s the way it should be.
Dave,
Is Ichiro vs Jones in CF a wash, or does Ichiro’s (presumably) better range trump Jones’ (presumably) better arm and save more runs?
Your link to the best recent CF seasons prompted me to go back and look at our *other* MVP caliber CF of the past. Kind of scary to think that the Kid managed 150 RC in 97 (and was still his old Gold Glove self to boot). How much would that guy be worth today? Geez.
Wow, great post Dave, Thanks for all that. I feel even better about this then I did 15 min. ago!
As was pointed out, Ichiro has special value because of the added Japan revenue. Also, the value of a CF on a year depends quite heavily on demand, that is, how many other teams are looking to shell out for a CF/leadoff player. A team may have room to improve at CF but less so at leadoff, etc.
Pacman being available for CF is a factor, but since he’ll likely come in with Raul going to DH and Vidro sitting, it’s a not-issue.
The biggest factor not mentioned here is that Ichiro isn’t an FA. If a player signs an extension before becoming an FA that gain a VERY important advantage- hedging risk.
Suppose Ichiro waited to become a FA and test the market, he would probably bring in MORE than 100/5 elsewhere, probably in another town with a big Asian population. However, it is possible that he could get hurt, or sued, or arrested, etc.. particularly if he knows something we don’t (for arguments sake). By signing an ‘extenstion’ Ichiro protects himself against fluctuations in his stock value. He is able to sign NOW when projections are all gravy and take a huge sum of money. Instead, he could RISK EVERYTHING on potentially making more money.
I work in quantitative finance in Manhattan and this deal is a no-brainer. You can make all sorts of arguments that the chance of Ichiro’s stock falling much by the offseason is slimmer than Ichiro himself, but the chance still exists. If I was making an investment and I had the opportunity to improve my returns if I took a .0001% risk of LOSING EVERYTHING, would I do it? Definitely not. This is a classic hedge.
Many players have reasons for gambling their future for more money in the FA market, some really want to leave the team their on. Some don’t believe there is anyway their stock can go down. I commend Ichiro on setting a good example as a leader of this ballclub. He turned down the possibility of more money to focus on baseball and win games with the M’s.
Sure 100/5 is a lot but I think it’s appropriate for one of the greatest players in the game. The question was never whether Ichiro would command a high price but whether the team AND Ichiro would both do things quickly and quietly and go focus on winning games.
I’ll point out something else: Ichiro’s value to the Mariners is higher than it is to virtually every club in baseball. That enhances the “goodness” of this deal.
Ichiro’s career home/road splits:
332/381/441 at home
334/377/438 away
Safeco is a pitcher’s park. A player who hits as well at home as away is a big advantage to the M’s. It also means that Ichiro has more value to the M’s than other teams. His numbers aren’t likely to change much going to a hitter’s ballpark, so he’s more valuable to a team in a difficult run-scoring environment.
Then, there’s the marketing angle. Y’all have covered that one in detail.
Bavasi did a smokin’ good job on this contract. Awesome.
A couple people have mentioned this up above, but I am amazed at how little its brought up that we still have a lot, if not all, Mariners games playing in Japan. I would imagine those Japanese tv rights would go away promptly without him– I doubt people are tuning in like crazy to see Joh back home.
I would believe that those Japanese TV rights, Japanese tourism and American fan/merchandising revenue had as much to do with re-signing him as anything he does on the field. He flat out brings money into the org, in addition to wins.
can this please become official?!
Great piece, Dave. I already felt great about the signing, but this really drove it home.
I was listening to Chris Russo this afternoon and he had a caller who was incredulous at 5/100 for Ichiro. He basically categorized him as having a single skill – speed. It’s emblematic of how little respect Ichiro gets in some circles for how good he is.
To Mad Dog’s credit, though, he said the deal sounded fair and that Ichiro could play in his outfield any day. He brought up his defense and durability, although he failed to fully understand his offenseive contribution.
Not to be a party pooper here, but is the deal definitely done at this point? I’m hoping it is just a matter of formality, but I’m going to be nervous until it is announced publicly by the team.
# 52: FWIW, the Japanese fans I sat next to in Oakland last Saturday were VERY excited to see Johjima.
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Why, if Jones would be wasted in RF, was Ichiro not wasted there? I don’t recall ever hearing anyone — one single person — suggest that Ichiro should be playing LF. Yet with a somewhat similar skill set — speed and arm — everybody is rushing to say Jones has to play in LF.
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Oh my god, I just read Steve Kelley’s column on Ichiro. And threw up in my mouth. I am not providing a link because I am not suggesting that anyone else read it. It is laughable.
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How sure are you that this is a done deal, when the Mariners and Ichiro’s agent are both saying it isn’t?
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Whoops. Sorry.
I don’t recall ever hearing anyone — one single person — suggest that Ichiro should be playing LF.
You’re right – we all wanted him in center. You can search through the archives and find all kinds of references to suggestions about moving Ichiro to center field. When Bavasi mentioned two years ago at the USSM feed at Safeco that his ideal outfield alignment involved Ichiro in center, Reed in left, and Snelling in right, he almost got a standing ovation.
And, guys, this is not a Dontrelle Willis thread. You’ll get one of those in the next few days, probably, but this is an Ichiro thread.
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Ichiro was wasted in right, to an extent. When you had Cameron and Winn, it wasn’t an issue because there was no way to improve the defensive alignment of the outfield. Later, it was more of an issue. I was perfectly happy to buy Ichiro’s line at the time that playing center would mean more wear and tear on his body and decrease his offensive output — whether he was right or wrong it was a reasonable suggestion and he’s valuable no matter where you play him. No need to move a superstar who doesn’t want to be moved unless you have to. But when you’re talking about contract values and such, it’s an issue.
But I was talking more about the fact that Jones’ value has a lot to do with his capacity to play center field. I’m sure he could be a good corner outfielder, and having two center fielders is a great problem to have. I was just thinking about roster construction and how to make the most of Ichiro’s fair-deal contract. Particularly if the team is so enthralled with Jones’ arm that they want him in right, as opposed to left where there’s a lot more ground to cover, a good portion of his value is not being utilized.
Having a good defensive corner outfielder who can hit for cheap is great — no complaints here whatsoever. I was just wondering about if/how the presence of Jones affects how good of a deal Ichiro is for the Ms, and if this might mean that Jones could end up getting traded for a piece that fit the Mariners needs a little bit better. I hope not; these are just some of the questions circling around my head.
If Jones has a better arm than Ichiro, then by the reasoning here — LF is cavernous and needs a speed guy — then Ichiro should be in LF, Jones in CF, and Guillen in RF. The arm is more valuable in CF than it would be in LF.
I’m not advocating that, mind you. I think it makes some sense to put Jones in RF while he acclimates to the majors, but I’m happy enough to see him coming up that I don’t think it’s worth getting worked up about.
Revenue from overseas broadcasting and merchandising (including Japan) is split among all MLB teams.
The M’s receive additional revenue only if the money actually makes to Safeco Field — tickets sold, concessions, team store sales, stadium advertisements for Japanese products, etc.
Revenue from overseas broadcasting and merchandising (including Japan) is split among all MLB teams.
The M’s receive additional revenue only if the money actually makes to Safeco Field — tickets sold, concessions, team store sales, stadium advertisements for Japanese products, etc.
Thought that was important enough to repeat, since it gets stated a lot that Ichiro is a money pit. Not saying that he doesn’t bring extra revenue to the M’s, but that th impact isn’t as big as many people believe.
I would imagine the actual cost of Jones in RF over LF is really just a couple runs, as opposed to replacing Ibanez in the outfield, which is huge. Of course I haven’t done any reasearch to verify this, but I’m fairly certain it’s not such a bad deal for now. Personally I want to see a LF/CF/RF trio of Wlad/Ichiro/Jones, but they’ll want to keep Guillen around as insurance just in case, and there’s no way he’s taking a bench role, and I’d want insurance in case one of AJ/Wlad struggles.
67 – You want your best OF in CF at Safeco. As great an arm and legs as AJ may have, Ichiro is still the better OF. Hence, you keep him in CF.
You know, given how many outs Vidro has created with DPs, Jones could replace him in the lineup, strike out in every single at bat, and still come out ahead. And of course he won’t. Plus his defense.
Back on topic:
If Ichiro is happy in CF and playing well, there is no need to move him. Unless Ichiro in Center and Jones in LF is proving to be a detriment, the internal problems caused by making a move would not be worth the effort.
When Alex went to NY, everyone knew that he was a better SS, but forcing Jeter to move would have caused headaches for the management and the team. Unless there is a glaring need to move a player (like there is with Ibanez in left), sometimes you are better off keeping your players happy and content.
Dave, how in the heck do you have the time to write all this (obviously well-researched and crafted) stuff? Do you have a day job? I’m consistently amazed by the quality content you and the other owners of this blog produce. Not to mention the insider knowledge. You guys seem like you work in the Ms front office or something. Do tell, what do you do for a living, and can I get in on it?
(daves rule
Mariner fans, prepare for a letdown:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/107696.html
The TNT is reporting that Jones will not be up with the M’s on Thursday. “Soon,” they say.
Dave, I know you have been told multiple times you should be working for some MLB club but I think your skills for analysis would be invaluable to someone like Scott Boras. It’s not often someone can present a case for a $100M/5 year contract as “below marketâ€. Nice job.
I suspect that someone like Boras wouldn’t want to hire Dave full time because Dave wouldn’t be willing to make a case for something he didn’t think was true. There’s a difference between sales and analysis. Analysts attempt to turn information into knowledge, sales people attempt to selectively use information to convince people to buy something.
Just wondering Dave.
If you just assumed that Ichiro was playing LF/RF instead how does this deal look. In the worst case scenario Ichiro becomes a corner OF instead. It would just be interesting if this deal is even reasonable at that new position. AKA, how much more valuable is he now that he’s at CF moneywise.
Everyone in the sabermetric community, sure, but hardly anyone else. To the average fan, beat writer, announcer, etc, Jeter was better. Trust me, in New York damned few people thought Jeter wasn’t a terrific shortstop.
I’ll do a post on the value of outfield alignment soon.
*hanging onto edge of my seat* Skip Bayliss will give us his opinion of the value of the contract on 1st and 10.
The Other Dude across from Skip: Ichiro’s to blame for the Mariners losing of last three years. He’s just a slap hitter. Chick’s love the long ball; those are the only hitters worth 100M.
Skip: He’s old. Ichiro should reinvent himself as a homerun hitter.
This made my head hurt more than The Other Dude’s ugly ass orange and black striped suit.
Why, why, why do these people have jobs?
I’ve never been one to say, everyone’s smarter on the Internet than the MSM, but…at least Internet folks do research and analysis.
re a couple of different posts:
This is the very essence of the stars and scrubs model of building a team – spend your money on true stars (who don’t get paid what they’re worth) and avoid spending it on average veterans (who get paid more than what they’re worth).
As others have said here, Ichiro is consistent year over year (within a season he has lots of variation month to month, but most players do), and he hits well in Safeco due to the type of player he is. And what Dave said in the original post about value.
The M’s are fairly flush with cash, certainly if they stop throwing it away (Vidro, HoRam, etc.) they would be even better off.
When the M’s dump a wad of cash on a position player, Ichiro is the kind of player they should try for.
Am I the only one worried about the fifth year of the potential deal? The M’s will probably back-end that fifth year, so 38 year old Ichiro will be making as much as $25M. Is that $25M going to be an albatross, real or imagined, for the M’s?
Currently, the only M’s signed beyond 2009 are Lopez and Betancourt for 2010 (Yuni is $4 million in 2010, Lopez presumably at a similar salary).
Dave any idea if the link in post 75 is accurate? I remember you saying before we thought he was coming up for sure that if he plays in the PCL all-star game he wasn’t going to be with the M’s on Thurs.
The TNT wouldn’t have posted a story stating that Jones isn’t coming up without getting direct confirmation of that from the M’s. So, I’m inclined to believe them.
But yes, if Jones is plays in the Triple-A all-star game tonight, then he won’t join the team tomorrow.
Big events in 2007: (1) Ichiro MVP of All-Star Game;
(2) J.J. Putz wins the Cy Young
Further, the Biggest Event This Year will be the Seattle Mariners winning the World Series. It is going to happen in this magical season.
Once this thing is finalized you’ll hear all kinds of theories and analysis that the M’s are overpaying him, but in reality this is probably what he would’ve made or more in the free agent market.
I’m not too concerned about how he will age over the next five years. We are talking about a guy who is practically religous about his mental game preparation and physical condition. He doesn’t have the type of body IMO that will break down drastically any time soon. Bottomline he is the most durable player in the game right now and will be over the next 5 years. *knock on wood*
Hm….my line of thought is that you use Dave’s analysis of Ichiro’s value as a CONSERVATIVE estimate. By even that measure, this deal is a bargain.
What are Ichiro’s chances of exceeding that conservative performance? Not bad, actually, given the arc of his career, his skill set and that superstars will often pop off a good year in their later years.
And in that case, you’re overpaying (perhaps!) in the final year of the contract, but underpaying in the middle years. And that’s probably a cost of doing business in the modern baseball era (particularly if the overpayment is by only a modest amount)…
Just seen on ‘Jim Rome is Burning,’ “Ichiro is the first $100 million bargain in the history of sport.”
That’s all there is to it.
Ichiro is one of only I’d say a handful of players who actually can EARN that 20 mil a yr and at the same time by his play,presentence,and stardom bring in enough profit to help to offset his salary.
I also believe without any doult in my mind the M’s have by this deal showed potential FAs (Pitchers etc…) that the M’s will go more than 3yrs and three digit offers for the “right” players meaning you produce at your spot the way Ichiro does at his you get the big payday from the M’s.
Remember, the Ms DID offer 9-digits to Jr. and A-Rod.
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sorry, bored.
Watching the pundit shows this afternoon…so far the only guys who have spoke ill of the Ichiro contract are that idiot writer in the bad suit, and Dan “LeRetard”.
Oh yeah, and it’s too hot.
…okay, still bored… most are taking Ichiro too. But, is there a prospective deal for a starter who can help? are we gona be okay as is – with internal promotion and crossed fingers? Or are we suppossed to have a cold cup of coffee with Geoff Baker every day.
I don’t intentionally ‘rosterbate’, but thanks for the heads up… and the face.
I just want to say I love the term “rosterbation”, it is such a beautiful combination of words which describes the sheer inanity of people posting their opinions on lineups.
Back on topic…The general consensus is Ichiro has some economic value to the Mariners greater than other players because of his status in Japan. Is there any precedent to this? I recall Bill James wrote an article refuting that Nolan Ryan drew more fans when pitching on the road. i am just wondering if we are making a big assumption without anything to back it up.
of course. If otherwise, who do you know that’ll be looking for a new gig?
No Question (to me) of Ichio’s absolute value, but isn’t the horse dead?
or will i be deleated for metophorisms
Going back to the original post, just curious how Ichiro would compare to the 100 best Leadoff Hitter seasons 04-07, regardless of position. Might make a good control group comparison.
#100:
The general consensus is Ichiro has some economic value to the Mariners greater than other players because of his status in Japan. Is there any precedent to this?
A year or two after Ichiro arrived one of the local trade and visitors bureaus did a study of his impact on local tourism, particularly the increase in Japanese tourist visits to Seattle to see Ichiro play in Safeco. Working off of that, I made some assumptions about the number of games those visitors would attend, the dollar value of the tickets they would buy, concessions and team souvenires they would buy, etc. I also figured that a certain number of the existing tourists visiting Seattle would go to Safeco for a game when they wouldn’t have otherwise. Note that this all money that goes directly into the Mariners pockets – none of that is MLB shared revenue. The data from the study are available in the archives at Puget Sound Business Journal, though I recall it took me a bit of digging to find them.
Based on what I thought were some reasonable numbers, I estimated that Ichiro was worth about $5 million in franshise profit. Since he was making less than that, he was free money for the Mariners.
Now his salary has gone up, and Ichi-mania has waned. So off the top of my head I would guess that the Japanese tourist profit increment is now probably about $2 million per year.
the Ricky… Biggio, as far as table setters go… im only 30 so… ??? u tell me
04 through 07, biggio
based on econimic impact there’s no way to deny Ichiro’s impact
Great post, as always, Dave. Love your stuff.
I’m not too worried about the aging factor with Ichiro. Look at Kenny Lofton, 40 years of age, and despite not being the player he used to be, he’s still doing his thing, putting up good numbers every year. With the way Ichiro looks after himself everyday, I see no reason he can’t do the same, or even better.
Will he be the same player when he is 38 as he is now? I don’t know. But I can bet that in 2012, we’ll be talking about a certain player being the first ever to start his Major League career with 12 consecutive 200-hit season.
Great move by the Ms. Now what we need is a ring to compliment it.
DAMDED STRAIT! thank you. Loften for sure… other then our boy of course.
$20 million a year for a player like Ichiro? Dave couldn’t have put it better, it’s a bargain. And consider the fact that the Ms are paying a total of about $21 million this year for Vidro, Batista and Weaver combined, who are pretty much playing like replacement-level players (perhaps except Batista).
People make a case about not spending a huge chunk of money on 1 player, however good he may be. But this is Ichiro we’re talking about, and I’d rather spend $20 million on him alone than on 3 replacement-level players.
I love it when I finish reading a post like this, and I feel I understand what is going on just a little bit more (and lucky to have found this blog). Great work.
He’s really good… he’s also a model of fitness and health, and one of the better potential high quality even when high in age players, I feel. It’s a great move, and shows dedication by the franchise.
As you said, the idea is to be “better” than other teams.
I apologize in advance if I’m saying something that’s already been written in the comments, but with 112 comments, that’s just too many to look through.
If we’re paying Ichiro the average of what teams pay for a win, then how is this contract going to make us better?
Blast from the past…
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/170961_locke28.html
Dave, can you forward this post to the Marlins president? He was on the Dan LeBatard show (and replayed on SportsCenter) essentially saying that the contract was a farce, Ichiro isn’t worth anything near this, and that it would ultimately bring down the sport if the numbers are in fact true. If anyone has a good way of finding this transcript or has TiVo’d tonight SC, please post the actual commentary.
That’s why he’s running the Marlins. Someone ask him how Reggie Abercrombie worked out for him.
Buster Olney was just on Sportscenter arguing that if Ichiro is worth 20 million, A-Rod is worth 50 percent more, at least.
His rationale? – Ichiro is a “singles hitter” while A-Rod is a power hitter. A-Rod will be chasing a record, while Ichiro will not. And A-Rod is all of two years younger than Ichiro.
No mention of defense or baserunning. No mention of the fact that Ichiro plays a premium defensive position, while A-Rod does not. No mention of runs created or win shares (of course).
Ahhh, the mainstream media…
OK, read through all the comments and there are two things I haven’t seen mentioned, both working in favor of Ichiro/the Mariners to make this even more of a bargain.
1) Park affects. While Ichiro’s stats may not be affected directly by Safeco, aren’t 128 runs created with half the games in Safeco Field more valuable that 128 runs in an average ballpark? The average CF creates 75.1 in an average run scoring environment, not half his games in an average environment and half his games in Safeco field.
2) The value of marginal wins for a player isn’t linear. When Baseball Prospectus converts from Wins to $ (WARP to MORP) the formula W^1.5. You can’t replace an 8-win Ichiro with 8 one-win players or 4 2-win players. Both scarcity and opportunity cost come into play here.
I dunno. I wouldn’t knock A-Rod’s hitting… he’s pretty good. His baserunning is not dreadful either – the All Star Game notwithstanding.
I know Alex’s defence has taken a hit, but he’s a career short stop shifted to third for political reasons, and third base isn’t for scrubs.
How much has his defence declined? Is a move back to short inconceivable? Is he now in the Aramis Ramirez/Miguel Cabrera bracket of hot corner butchery?
Anyone voiced any comparisons with the Travis Hafner extension? 4 years for $57M reported on ESPN and MLB.com.
Lemme see the thoughtless analysis probably goes:
He’s a power hitter
He’s an RBI guy
He’s more patient
He’s younger
ergo he’s more valuable…
Of course Trafner also:
Has NO defensive value at all
Has NO value on the bases either (6 SB in his career, with 5 CS, euch)
Relies on ‘old player skills’ at a young age, and that can go all Jeremy Giambi on you.
Is already under team control for 2008, which means the Indians were negotiating from a position of strength
Is decling rather a lot this year. Is his power fading a la Bobby Abreu?
118 – Are you saying that the difference in value between an 8-win player and a 7-win player is greater than the difference in value between a 7-win player and a 6-win player?
This seems to make sense, as the theoretical 20-win player would be invaluable, whereas the entire concept of replacement level players is that they are a “dime a dozen”.
Well, your objective as a GM should be to win 90-100 games.
A team of replacement level players gets you approx 54 wins, so you have to fill out your 25 man roster with guys who are going to make the difference.
Any team, no matter how efficiently built, is going to carry several guys who aren’t worth a lick above replacement (backup catcher, late-inning defensive replacements, bullpen filler, or in the M’s case, in the DH slot). That leaves you maybe 20 guys who have to be worth collectively 40 or 45 wins. 1 and 2 win players just aren’t going to get you there by themselves.
114: Such short-sightedness on Locke’s part may account for why the idiot is not currently “Locked-in” at the moment on any local station.
Ted Miller in the P-I today references “fabulously insightful analysis across the Internet”.
Truly we have come a long way.
Top work Dave.
Re 115 and Dave in 116:
I think a Marlins fan has pretty much nailed it, here is a copy of a post made by a Marlins fan that I stole from one of LL’s Diaries:
“This coming from our idiot President says this to me. Cabrera, be prepared to move your family out of South Florida because your not staying here. Look, it’s pretty obvious by now that the Marlins management is preparing the fans for the inevitable with these comments. There is no way Cabrera, who is likely to command upwards of 20 million a year, is going to resign with the Marlins while A) Jeffrey Loria still owns this team or B) We do not land a new stadium deal. The Marlins will continue to reap the benefits of revenue sharing and laugh in the faces of teams like the Mariners who lock up key players and superstars to longterm contracts.
The funny thing is I can picture Presidents and owners across the land sitting back and laughing at the audio below.”
Yep.
More specifically, rebuttal comes form this guy: http://www.sportech.info/
Seems like a smart dude.
Dave:
I’m assuming you ignored VORP because:
1. Ichiro is in CF now;
2. Pecota has never really known what to do with Ichiro;
Correct?
#118: I believe THT normalizes RC for park among other things (situational hitting,team context etc.)
#118: read Tango’s comments #9-12 in this thread: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/supervorp/#9
I was listening to Colin Cowherd this morning (I only listen to sports radio in my car – he’s the only guy on this early).
He’s also in the “A-Rod is worth at least 50% more than Ichiro” camp. He also went so far as to call A-Rod a Gold Glove-caliber 3B.
I almost threw up in my mouth a bit. If my analysis earlier in the thread (Dave, you can correct me if I am wrong) is correct, Ichiro is worth just as much as A-Rod. Too bad he’s just a “singles hitter”.
You know the great thing about Mariners’ contracts, are that they get to play around 100 games in income tax free states, so that 30mil/yr for A-Rod in NY wouldn’t be as big as if it was in Texas or Seattle. I’ve always wondered why the tax factor and the whole Canadian dollar exchange factor don’t play as big of an issue when comparing salaries. I guess it is just an ego thing, and my check looks bigger, so I’m better, or something like that.
Any thoughts on this post in Sabernomics? I don’t know how he comes up with the predicted dollar values attached to Hafner and Ichiro.
The $80M value for Ichiro is offense only, which if we go by the 50:10 offensive:defensive runs created ratio in this post implies a $16M value for his defense. Does this mean that Bradbury agrees with Dave’s “actual value” for Ichiro (using $2.5M/win)? And yet Bradbury slams the M’s (especially wrt to the Indians, which I guess is always a safe play), and Dave calls this a bargain. A case of undervaluing defense?
Also, I guess Bradbury is making the case that the M’s should have extended Ichiro earlier, instead of when he became nearly a free agent, whereas Dave is considering only the current options, which means that the “market value” of wins is relevant.
The marlins manager is angry that we are going to sign ichiro to 20 mill a year. he says his age is a factor to that much money a year even thought people like a-rod will most likly make that much if he is signed at 33. ichro is also within the top 10 in many major leauge batting catagories and the key to the mariners sucess in the next few seasons. hes is well worth the money
132 can you reference please? Where did you hear or read about this?
Nevermind Kyle
118 – Are you saying that the difference in value between an 8-win player and a 7-win player is greater than the difference in value between a 7-win player and a 6-win player?
Yes. It comes down to scarcity, both of talent and playing time. Say you have a team with a 4 win CF and a 1 win 1B and you want to upgrade by two wins. It’s a lot easier to find a 3 win 1B than a 6 win CF. For the other part of the argument, say the Mariners let Ichiro (8 wins) leave. They couldn’t replace him in CF with Adam Jones (3-4 wins) and Andruw Jones (4-5 wins), confusion of seeing “A Jones CF” in the lineup aside, they’d still only get 4-5 wins from the position. Let’s ignore the reality that the current team is so poorly constructed that we’ve void at DH and could shift Adam to LF, and bench Vidro, and get both AJ’s in the lineup.
Any thoughts on this post in Sabernomics? I don’t know how he comes up with the predicted dollar values attached to Hafner and Ichiro.
It’s a good laugh.
Personally, I like Travis Hafner a lot, but there’s no way he’s a $20M player. Like you, I don’t know where the dollar values come from, but they appear to miss three things only one of which he mentions.
1) The value of defense. Hafner is 0 (I guess), Ichiro is +10 runs. He does note this but still underestimates it
2) The value of position. Hafner is a better offensive player than Ichiro, hands down. It’s like a .330 EQA to .300 (for good Hafner, see point 3). But as a group DH’s hit better than CF’s, so when you compare to the average CF or the average DH or replacement level, Ichiro closes the gap and might be better.
3) Hafner is having a lousy year (260/400/450) while Ichiro is having an MVP-like year. Hafner’s ISO has been cut in half. I suspect he projects Hafner without considering that he may never be the player he was before the injury.
Roughly here’s a “back of the napkin” case for Hafner being a $20M player. His projected VORP totals 190 for 2008-2011. That’s 19 wins. Last season the going rate was about $4M/win. If ten percent inflation occurs (assuming no market correction is eminent), then this off season, wins will be going for $4.4M. So if you’d expect Hafner to be worth 19 wins over the next four years, the market would suggest you should pay him roughly $84M (or $21M/year on average).
117Mike Honcho Says: Buster Olney was just on Sportscenter arguing that if Ichiro is worth 20 million, A-Rod is worth 50 percent more, at least.
His rationale? – Ichiro is a “singles hitter†while A-Rod is a power hitter. A-Rod will be chasing a record, while Ichiro will not. And A-Rod is all of two years younger than Ichiro.
No mention of defense or baserunning. No mention of the fact that Ichiro plays a premium defensive position, while A-Rod does not. No mention of runs created or win shares (of course).
Ahhh, the mainstream media…
Further proof that Buster Olney is an idiot. Since HE decided to compare those two: no mention of the records Ichiro has broken, like 1) most hits in a 6 year period; 2)most hits in a single season (a record that stood for 84 years); 3) most hits on the road in a single season; 4) most hits in a month; consecutive steals (broken this year), and of course, that ITP HR in the All-Star Game. He’ll surpass Wade Boggs next year if he continues the >200 hits/consecutive year (he’s on his way to 7 this year).
Observers at the pre-All-Star-Game BP were awed by Ichiro casually hitting “HRs” one after another. But you KNOW pundits like Olney would criticize Ichiro if he sacrificed hitting “singles” for those HRs in game situations — something he COULD do if he chose, much like Wade Boggs did in 1987.
He’s a singles hitter who knows the value of denying his own power, and who makes things happen, unlike ARod. ARod has the baseball instincts of a Little Leaguer, coupled with that undeniable power, which in my eyes considerably levels the playing field if one is compelled (like the Olneys, the Cowherds, etc.) to compare these two.
I think Ichiro is worth at least $20M/year and yes, I’d pay him that for 5 or even more years for both his offense and his defense. If Boras gets ARod $30M/year, I think ARod will eventually become a very expensive DH or 1B, because he won’t last at 3B if anyone expects the same level of defense (mediocre as long as he’s next to Jeter) in 5 years that they’re getting from him now. He ain’t Brooks Robinson.
On my site I show that both Ichiro and Hafner signed fair contracts. I also show what will happen with ARod.
Roughly here’s a “back of the napkin†case for Hafner being a $20M player
OK, if you VALUE players based on the market not their actual output.
That VORP doesn’t take into account his 2007 season. Anyone not think Ichiro can not average 45 RAR (runs above replacement) over the next five seasons? He’s at 34 this year already. Anyone think Hafner is really more valuable than Ichiro?
#139 – I can’t find on your site your discussion of the Ichiro and Hafner contracts. I looked at insidethebook.com and http://www.tangotiger.net but didn’t see anything. can you point me in the direction I need to go?
Is this signing official? Are they still negotiating? (I’ve looked through the comments here and elsewhere on the web and can’t find anything).
Hafner
Ichiro
ARod
Above, it was mentioned that CF is a premium position compared to 3B. I can guess that this is because much more balls are hit to CF than 3B. But what is the hierarchy of positions exactly. Here is my guess, please let me know where I can find more info on this:
P
SS
C
2B
CF
1B
3B
LF
RF
DH
Did I guess right?
Also, what happened to A-Rod defensively? He was once considered a good SS and then the Yanks didn’t want to move Jeter and now he is a lackluster 3B? Any insights?
#145: a haiku
Young leather is best
Getting old is part of life
Left on the spectrum.
ARod, 3B, has 86 RC this year. Magglio Ordonez, RF, has 84. Ichiro had only 1 of the top 10 RC’s for RFs from 2004-2006, which was his 143 RC in 2004.
Ichiro has 77 RC this year, but reverting to the norm would put him closer to 134 RC in 2007. Consider that his career BA is 20 points lower after the All-star break, and career OPS is 40 points lower post break.
ARod has almost no career difference pre- and post-break (and some people still call him “streaky”). He is accurately “on pace” for 162 RC this year.
Also, although the average 3B has higher RC than the average CF, I’d guess the bench/replacement-level 3B is probably closer to the bench/replacement level CF.
I’d like to see more info on position value. Off the top of my head, my view is something like:
SP
C
SS
CF / Closer
2B
Left-handed RP
1B
RP
3B / RF
LF
DH
Add points for batting lefty.
I take the Hafner contract as proof that Ichiro at $100M/5 is a good deal. Vladimir Guerrero got $70/5 (plus a $15 club option) three years ago, and at the time there were concerns (at least in some quarters, mostly by people who hadn’t seem him) about his ability to transfer his numbers to the AL; he had also missed part of the previous season due to a back injury, which had to cloud his value too. In retrospect, it’s a great deal for the Angels; given the salary inflation and the numbers he’s put up since, is there any doubt he’d get more than $100/5 today?
BTW, did anybody notice that they got the ASG MVP exactly right according to WPA?
#143 – Thank, tangotiger, interesting stuff!
It’s generally called the “Defensive Spectrum”, and it goes like this:
SS
2B
CF
C
3B
RF
LF
1B
DH
The fielding spectum I have come up with is:
+1.0 C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF
-1.0 1B
So, an average fielding SS is worth the same as an above average fielding 2B of +0.5 wins.
If Ichiro is +2.0 wins as a RF, he’s probably +1.0 wins as a CF.
I set DH to either -1.5 or -2.0
interesting whine by Marlins president about this extension.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/mlb_experts/post/Five-and-Fly-Apocalypse-prediction?urn=mlb,39045
David Samson is one of the two most hated men in Montreal.
Now official per AP.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BBA_MARINERS_SUZUKI?SITE=CAVIC&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Zippity!
From TangoTiger’s comment (link above #143) I just have to quote:
Beautiful.