Track Records
Friendly Reminder – I’ll be on KJR with the Groz at 2:20 this afternoon. I’ll try to resist the urge to just yell Adam Jones’ name repeatedly for eight minutes.
One of the main things you’ll hear over the next few days, during the run-up to the trade deadline, is that so-and-so has a track record of success. They’re veterans, they’re proven commodities, and they’ve shown that they can perform in the major leagues before. These statements will often be made to mask the fact that there’s a reason the other team was willing to trade you the guy in the first place.
The Mariners, probably more than almost any other team in baseball, love track records. Bill Bavasi is fond of saying “Managers hate kids. Young players get managers fired.” This pro-veteran belief is widespread in baseball, but even more so in Seattle. Guys with track records hold their perceived value for a long time, often far beyond the point of having actual skills to contribute.
This is especially true with pitchers. If a pitcher has a successful season, especially as a starter or a closer, he inherits a label that takes all kinds of work to remove. If he has two successful seasons, he’s essentially guaranteed to pitch until his arm falls off. Teams will always be willing to take a chance on guys with track records.
You can probably guess where I stand on the projection value of a track record in many cases. As I laid out in the Evaluating Pitcher Talent post, pitching success can often have very little to do with repeatable skills and an awful lot to do with factors beyond the pitcher’s control. However, it is still completely in vogue for teams to acquire players simply because they’ve succeeded before, ignoring their current skill levels in projecting what they’ll do going forward.
So, despite the fact that I’m preaching to the choir, I figured I’d make a point about how well track records predicted pitching success in the AL in 2007 so far. What follows is a list of starting pitchers in the American League that have pitched at least 50 innings, their ERA+, their xFIP, and how they came to be members of their current team. This list is sorted by ERA+ (park adjusted ERA where 100 is average) so that those of you who still think I’m wrong about how to evaluate pitchers can have one less thing to complain about. On to the list.
1. Lenny Dinardo, 183 ERA+, 4.47 xFIP, Claimed on Waivers
2. Dan Haren, 183 ERA+, 4.15 xFIP, Acquired as minor leaguer in trade for Mark Mulder
3. Jeremy Guthrie, 152 ERA+, 4.05 xFIP, Claimed on Waivers
4. Johan Santana, 152 ERA+, 3.72 xFIP, Rule 5 selection
5. Kelvim Escobar, 148 ERA+, 4.14 xFIP, Mid-Tier Free Agent Signing
6. Erik Bedard, 144 ERA+, 3.02 xFIP, Developed by Team
7. Mark Buehrle, 141 ERA+, 4.41 xFIP, Developed by Team
8. Josh Beckett, 140 ERA+, 3.53 xFIP, Aquired in trade for Hanley Ramirez
9. Fausto Carmona, 133 ERA+, 3.98 xFIP, Developed by Team
10. John Lackey, 132 ERA+, 4.19 xFIP, Developed by Team
11. Jered Weaver, 131 ERA+, 4.84 xFIP, Developed by Team
12. Justin Verlander, 127 ERA+, 4.35 xFIP, Developed by Team
13. Javier Vazquez, 123 ERA+, 3.90 xFIP, Acquired in trade for for Chris Young
14. Chien-Ming Wang, 122 ERA+, 4.23 xFIP, Developed by Team
15. Brian Bannister, 122 ERA+, 5.03 xFIP, Acquired as minor leaguer in trade for Ambiorex Burgos
16. Gil Meche, 122 ERA+, 4.12 xFIP, Mid-Tier Free Agent Signing
17. Chad Gaudin, 121 ERA+, 4.79 xFIP, Acquired as minor leaguer in trade for Dustin Majewski
18. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 121 ERA+, 4.18 xFIP, Top-Tier Free Agent Signing
19. Joe Blanton, 120 ERA+, 4.07 xFIP, Developed by Team
20. C.C. Sabathia, 119 ERA+, 3.61 xFIP, Developed by Team
21. Shaun Marcum, 119 ERA+, 4.37 xFIP, Developed by Team
22. Jeremy Bonderman, 118 ERA+, 3.59 xFIP, Acquired as minor leaguer in trade for Jeff Weaver
23. Roger Clemens, 117 ERA+, 4.17 xFIP, Top-Tier Free Agent Signing
24. Andrew Miller, 115 ERA+, 4.84 xFIP, Developed by Team
25. Roy Halladay, 111 ERA+, 3.95 xFIP, Developed by Team
26. Scott Kazmir, 110 ERA+, 4.37 xFIP, Acquired as minor leaguer in trade for Victor Zambrano
27. Jon Garland, 110 ERA+, 5.01 xFIP, Acquired as minor leaguer in trade for Matt Karchner
28. Curt Schilling, 109 ERA+, 4.29 xFIP, Acquired in trade for Casey Fossum, J. de la Rosa, and Brandon Lyon
29. A.J. Burnett, 107 ERA+, 3.74 xFIP, Top-Tier Free Agent Signing
30. Felix Herandez, 106 ERA+, 3.19 xFIP, Developed by Team
Breaking it down by category:
Developed by Team: 13
Acquired as minor leaguer in trade: 6
Top-Tier Free Agent Signing: 3
Acquired as major leaguer in trade: 3
Mid-Tier Free Agent Signing: 2
Claimed on Waivers: 2
Rule 5 Selection: 1
Take a look at this list. A grand total of six of them were considered upper echelon established pitchers at the time they were acquired and have pitched at a level consistent with their track record. An equal number of them were acquired in a move that cost the organization nothing of value – a $25,000 waiver claim, a $50,000 rule 5 fee, or a minor trade for a spare part. These guys – Lenny Dinardo, Jeremy Guthrie, Chad Gaudin, Brian Bannister, Jon Garland, and some guy named Johan Santana – all came from the pool of talent that we often refer to as freely available talent. These guys cost essentially nothing, and they had no track record of success when they were acquired.
Beyond that, over half of the list, 16 of the 30, were either developed internally or were acquired as somewhat highly though of minor league pitchers. They also had no track record of major league success when they were acquired.
Add it all up, and you’ve got 22 of the 30 guys on this list who were acquired without a major league track record. Two of the top 3 were claimed on waivers within the past year! Only 1 of the top 10 was acquired in a trade as an established major league pitcher, and he cost his team Hanley Ramirez in the process.
This isn’t anything of an in depth study, but it does make one point abundantly clear – the pool of potential pitchers with which to find a quality starter is not limited to guys who have a track record of being a quality starter. Teams who pigeonhole themselves into believing that the way to build a successful pitching staff is by acquiring successful pitchers are ignoring a massive populous of pitchers that could help them, and they’re usually dooming their franchises to making some terrible trades and giving out horrible free agent contracts in the process.
The Mariners are shopping for an arm and the list of potential available pitchers being discussed are guys like Jose Contreras, Matt Morris, Jon Garland, and the pipe dream is Dontrelle Willis. Why? Because they all have track records.
I’m guessing the A’s are quite happy with the fact that their entire freaking rotation is on the above list, and not one of them had a track record when they were acquired.
Baseball needs to wake up. Chasing past success is a great way to become the Pittsburgh Pirates. Forget proven veterans – go find guys with talent and acquire them. If you need a name to push you in the right direction, call the Devil Rays about J.P. Howell. He’ll cost a fraction of what the big names are going to command and he’s every bit as good.
Query: Why would the Mariners’ recent “track record” suggest their theory of getting players with proven “track records” is correct?
/banging head on wall…
These numbers are staggering when you think about how many resources (dollars and prospects) are on the table for so many teams when looking for “Big Name” starting pitchers.
Great fucking write-up, Dave!
I’m still trying to grasp all of the ways of evaluating talent, and it’s mind boggling. You, sir, are a genius as far as I’m concerned. I’m looking at baseballprospectus.com everyday as well as fangraphs and hardballtimes, but it’s all a bit overwhelming for me.
Any hints on the stats one should look for when evaluating future success for pitchers and batters? People are always telling me that WHIP is king-shit, I dont believe it, but I can’t figure out what’s better, and why.
3: Try this.
The bottom 15 (out of the two 200 qualifiers) in ERA+:
Ervin Santana – 69
Jose Contreras – 73
Adam Eaton – 75
Kip Wells – 76
Scott Olsen – 77
Odalis Perez – 78
Dontrelle Willis – 79 (good call, Mr. Baker)
David Wells – 81
Matt Belisle – 83
Steve Trachsel – 83
Jorge de la Rosa – 84
Kameron Loe – 84
Jeff Suppan – 85
Woody Williams – 85
Matt Chico – 86
Not exactly a bunch of nobodies and rookies…
You make an excellent point. This pitfall is not associated only with GM’s though, it’s really quite prevalent. In particular, people are heavily drawn to investments based on their returns in previous years. Unfortunately, returns in the previous years are statistically pretty poor predictors of future success. You can come up with many reasons for why but you don’t really have to because the burden lies the other way. The correlation simply isn’t there. If a lot of people gamble, some will win big but that isn’t much of a predictor for the future.
What is a good predictor?
Cost.
Investments heaving low fees (transaction fees, management expenses, etc.) predict future returns (net all expenses) very well because there is a build in TRUE advantage over higher fee investments.
In baseball similar reasoning applies.
As for the Mariner’s GM’s decision making. Does anyone read Mariners Insider (Tacoma News Tribune’s blog). I generally like these blogs, especially Seahawks insider, but read this:
http://blogs.thenewstribune.com/mariners?title=mr_jones_still_isn_t_coming_yet&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1
Just plain dumb.
Anyhow, we all know how bad all this losing feels but don’t get too down on yourselves. If the M’s fall out of the playoff race, at least the NFL season will start up so you can just forget about baseball for awhile.
edit: the “top” 200 qualifiers, not the “two” 200 qualifiers…
Were the 30 pitchers listed in the original entry the top 30 in ERA+ (with over 50 IP in the AL this year?)
If that was stated, I missed it, so was wondering if that was all the 30 or if they were selected in some other way.
This makes me think of James Shields. Sure, he’s been perfectly awful in a few of his past several starts, but he’s young (25), has great stuff, and will eventually be a dependable #2-type start for a team other than the Rays.
The true lesson of Moneyball is not, “OBP is a great way to evaluate hitters,” but, “Where are the market inefficiencies?”
Right now, veteran experience is overvalued. That means picking up vets is a losing proposition.
4-
Thanks. I’ve read all of that before. I have just not read it carefully enough. I’ll still have to read it again, but I’m starting to get more of a hang of it.
Friendly Reminder – I’ll be on KJR with the Groz at 2:20 this afternoon. I’ll try to resist the urge to just yell Adam Jones’ name repeatedly for eight minutes.
Well, nothing else has worked, so……
Lets look at the mariners beginning of season rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez – Developed by team – Cheap
2. Jerrod Washburn – Makes a career out of mediocrity – Somewhat expensive
3. Miguel Batista – Makes a career out of mediocrity – Mid price
4. Haracio Ramirez – Bad track record – Got him in horrible trade – Mid price
5. Jeff Weaver – Horrible track record, won world series final game – Expensive
The Mariners are worse than the post suggests, they dont care if the person is (or has beean) good, just if they have played in the majors.
This post reflects the kind of thinking that has kept me coming back to USSM over the years.
The whining, on the other hand, especially in the game threads, isn’t helping anyone. I know it’s hard to take the long view in the midst of a tailspin, but every Mariner team that has even made the playoffs has had a period of intense struggle with one notable exception – the 2001 team. And did the fact that they didn’t really struggle at any point in their season somehow guarantee that team post-season success?
Teams struggle because evading a protracted downturn in a season with a sample size of 162 requires uncommon luck or a remarkable abundance of talent.
Why should this team be immune? Teams, even playoff teams, will struggle almost as certainly as death and taxes. Deal with it.
Dave- Does KJR archive your segments so I can listen to them later?
Dave, that was great, thanks for all the work you put into this. When I buy the M’s you are GM.
I’m guessing the A’s are quite happy with the fact that their entire freaking rotation is on the above list, and not one of them had a track record when they were acquired.
But, but, how will Billy Beane ever succeed once the Big Three leave? What’s that? They’re gone already?
That’s a great list, Dave. Nice work.
Unfortunately, we Mariners fans know all too well the language of this situation:
He’s a veteran; he knows how to win; he’s a leader; he has playoff experience; he’s coming back from an injury; etc.
I agued back in May that Sexson’s bat looked slow and that I thought this would be his season he wouldn’t “turn it on” after the ASB. It just reminded me too much of someone like Dale Murphy (Big, tall, slugger…long swing) who had 4-5 good seasons hitting about .300/30+/100 and then he lost his bat speed and just couldn’t do it anymore. Dale was about 31-32 when it happened to him. Sexson, who isn’t as good as Murphy was, is now 32.
It’s time to sit Sexson or platoon him and Ibanez (bring on Jones). Vidro should be given some time to see if his hitting continues or if he falls back to his normal self (BRING ON JONES).
And PLEASE PLEASE don’t give up a promising player for a washed up pitcher!!!
Dave won’t be the GM when I hire the M’s. He’ll be one of the management consultants. He keeps telling us he doesn’t want the job.
Any hints on the stats one should look for when evaluating future success for pitchers and batters?
There are three basic questions that should be answered when evaluating a pitcher: Can he throw strikes? Can he generate swings-and-misses? Can he get groundballs?
If the answer to any two of those three is yes, you probably have a good pitcher.
For hitters, the questions are slightly different: Can he drive the ball? Can he make contact? Does he recognize pitches?
You want to use stats that help answer those questions. So, you’re looking at things like BB%, K%, and GB% for pitchers, and BB%, K%, and ISO% for hitters. All these stats are found on the player pages at firstinning.com.
15:
They did last week, I hope they do this week.
Thanks Dave
Phil Rogers at the Chicago Tribune says it may be Wlad for Garland.
I picked up JP Howell for a spot start in fantasy when he was up for a bit and he had a very good game. Hes got talent and if Bavasi were somehow smart enought to pull that off, well I believe Hell might freeze over
Dave,
One more question… sorry if I’m being annoying here.
After briefly looking at firstinning.com, I noticed that inside the park factors link, there were rating for SO and BB (Safeco has a 0.013 SO and a 0.003 BB). How does a park factor into such stats as SO and BB?
23
I’ve been hearing that, and I’m not too sure I want that. Although, Garland would be a major upgrade to our staff, I’m not sure I want Guillen here as our RF “of the future”.
I would actually be very pleased if you just shouted Adam Jones for eight minutes.
By the way, someone needs to take Jim Moore’s keyboard away from him for writing yet another Ichiro As Inscrutable Asian Guy column in today’s PI. Ichiro is not Charlie Chan.
Great, great write up Dave. The term ” freely available talent” gets tossed around a lot on this site, it’s cool to see exactly what that means.
Great post. Everyone is looking for a starting pitcher but name recognition is about as far as it goes. I would hope that BB thinks about this stuff in more complex ways than the average fan, but there you go. I was reminded why I always turn here and almost never listen to KJR when I heard a caller come up with one I hadn’t heard yet, but upon reflection seems inevitable. You’ve analyzed the market for starting pitchers, but the caller declared that the starting pitching “isn’t that bad,” then floated a trade:
Adam Jones for Ken Griffey Jr.
Every time I hear a team say that it’s going to go into the offseason looking to address its pitching problems through free agency, I want to throw up. Teams ALWAYS overpay, and rarely get any kind of return on their considerable investment.
You can make a list under 10 (I think) of free agent pitchers who have been signed to mega deals in the last 10 years who have made the anticipated impact. I’ll have to do the research later.
As an aside, funny that $11 mil per gets you labeled “mid-tier” … (looking at you, Gil Meche)
J.P. Howell!!! I missed him the first time I read the post. I’ve been a closet admirer for a while. He’d be a great little get.
To the Mariner execs reading this: Call Andrew Friedman right now and offer Rob Johnson for Howell. Do it.
From Yahoo trade roumors:
“The Florida Marlins aren’t about to budge. According to major league sources, Dontrelle Willis is going nowhere.
The Marlins, if they wish to deal Willis, would be better off waiting until the off-season, assuming that Willis rebuilds his value in the final two months. Willis is a free agent after 2009.”
At least one horrible pitcher with a good track record isn’t comng, and we’re not losing AJ for him. Lets all be happy Geoff Baker doesn’t get his wish.
Friedman is way too smart for that. But Howell’s available, and he’ll certainly cost less than any of the track record pitchers.
I can’t type, and neither can BB, thats why he always skrews up the trades.
Excellent post indeed you’re dead on with most of the post.
Quite frankly tho it’s wasted on a club that has a GM who is always either there with too little to aquire or offers too much to aquire the WRONG player.
A GM who always waits TOOO long to get active in the FA market with right contract offers and ends up with Weaver and Reitsma signings overpaid cause they’re all that left at the market.
Bavasi there is a reason for that they don’t rate the pay they demand.
Add in the fact Bavasi was voted by MLB as the 30th GM out of 30 GMs.That alone should have gotten his butt canned
His bad signings,his bad trades, his poor judgement and slow to act in the FA and in trades,etc……..nopt only justify his firing but his IMMEDIATE FIRING now before the deadline in fact he should have followed Hargrove out the door.
You really think Freidman wouldn’t take Johnson? They are chock-full of prospects at about every spot except catcher; it seems like a good match.
Regardless, I now have Howell on the brain. Thanks Dave.
I just heard Groz say “one thing the seamheads don’t get is that you don’t mess with the ‘vibe’ in the clubhouse”. This was in response to caller who were complaining about the production from Sexson and Ibanez.
I don’t think “seamheads” was a compliment.
Rob Johnson stinks.
I know ERA+ is park adjusted but really, aside from that, its based upon a flawed metric so I’m not sure why those inclined to poo poo ERA seem to love ERA+. How is it really any less flawed than park adjusting batting average, normalizing it to the league and then suggesting it was a measure of true offensive ability?
What might an arm like Howell roughly cost the Ms?
[deleted, rosterbation]
Well, you do have to consider the fact that M’s fans are clamoring to get some name in there to, in their mind, help the team cross that edge. It’s not entirely illogical what they’re looking at doing. It’s just that that logic is very flawed.
Informed fans will look at Howell’s solid (2.18) K/BB ratio and excellent K/9 number (8.26) along with age, and other numbers, and say “hmm, definitely worth considering” whereas under-informed fans will take a look at his 1-4 record, 7+ ERA, 1.8 WHIP and pretty much puke. Weird people like me will look at his BB-Ref info and see that one of his comps is a HOF’er (except, of course, that HOF’er is likely there for his 16 years as a hitter, and not likely for his 3 years as a pitcher. Heh)…
DAVE’S ON!
Dave…you sound like Peter Parker!!!!
Great shit Dave! Loved you on the radio.
Why is it that we always fall into the trap of calling it the “12-man bullpen???”
I make this stupid, silly error all. the. time.
USSMariners.com!!!
10 minutes of Truth on KJR
That was great.
HA!! You’re right, Peter Parker, absolutely.
If only Spiderman could save the Mariners from themselves.
Yeah…you were great! Way to go.
Nice work Dave.
Lets now hope McLaren and Bavasi also listned…
If the Ms are going to target Harang, why not acquire Peavy too….
If you missed David’s interview with Groz on 950 KJR, it will be available via podcast on 950kjr.com in about 10 minutes. Click on Groz’s webpage. .
Dave, you did a nice job today with the Groz. I’m certain that Mary Jane and Aunt May enjoyed it also!
AWESOME segment. And Groz just read my email about the segment. Woo!
Dave = Spiderman
Bavasi = Mysterio (??)
For my birthday present I hope Bavasi gets me a life sized Adam Jones with life like OPS action to put in left field. If not I will take Dave on the radio for 10 minutes of reason as my present from the M’s.
54: Is it to be in the “Groz On Demand” section, because I can’t find it there, is it somewhere else?
check here: http://950kjr.com/pages/thegrozpage.html
Dave, today’s show was excellent. Kudos.
Good job today on the radio, Dave. Enjoyed the talk. I would only recommend that you slow down a bit. You talk faster than me!
Very enjoyable interview Dave but somehow I thought you’d be taller…
Wow look at Pat Gillick find a replacement for Utley within a day.
That was a good segment. I’m looking forward to next Friday, when Dave and Groz can talk with much relief of our deadline inactivity and our glorious sweep of the Angels. Seriously though, considering Bavasi will most definitely do something if it increases even slightly the chance he’ll keep his job…What kind of deal has the highest chance of happening?
Zach Greinke or Daniel Cabrera. The only pitchers the M’s should even remotely consider acquiring, if they’re truly available, as rumored.
Only 1 of the top 10 was acquired in a trade as an established major league pitcher, and he cost his team Hanley Ramirez in the process…
We have an H. Ramirez we could afford to part with…
Seriously, Dave this was a great post. I’ve always thought FAs were overpaid, and that FA pitchers were a total crapshoot.
What’s up with Greinke? It seems like he went from an elite prospect with a lot of upside, to a quality major league starter, to a terrible starter, then was out of baseball, then came back and was a mediocre starter, and now is an effective bullpen pitcher? What’s his value right now?
Great job again on the air, Dave!
Jim Moore’s keyboard should have been taken away from him long ago, but yeah, that Ichiro article is lame. Plus is it just me, or did that “he certainly is not inscrutable!” sarcasm in the beginning paragraphs come across as extremely mean-spirited?
You forgot the part about how he was expected to be a first round draft pick comeing out of high school, as a hitter.
His value is that of a mediocre player, but the Royals have declared him unavailible, unless they get an offer that “blows them away.” I think HoRam’s stink might blow them away (not in a good way), but I wouldn’t give them an offer.
I don’t want to turn this into a “Jim Moore sucks” thread, but let’s just say I’m searching the P-I website for an email address for the sports editor so I can file a complaint about that article.
The only thing that prevents Adam Jones from going to the Marlins are the Marlins. Apparently, Bill Bavasi is willing to do the deal now, according to Keith Law in ESPN:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/baseball/marlins/sfl-flspmarnotes24nbjul24,0,5359489.story
If that’s true, Bill should be fired before the deadline so that deal won’t happen.
That article was horrible “does he ever eat” come on, of course he does.
Dave – fantastic, again.
And Groz (is that the man’s name? I’m in L.A., excuse my ignorance) I’ll say again that you were great.
I’m guessing that, between the two of you, it would be difficult to find a better ten minutes of sports radio in the N.W. on any given week.
I don’t listen to much, but it’s sure refreshing to hear some broadcast time that is not talking points.
As to the original post… amen. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could be on the other side of one of these midseason-mediocre-pitcher-for-top-prospects deals?
Lastly, 14 – Give us all a break, wouldja? Do you honestly think we don’t understand streaks and highs and lows? If you do, then you aren’t paying attention. If you don’t, then stop being disingenuous, it’s not impressing anyone.
ESPN + trade deadline = a great many outright lies = ratings in their mind (and perhaps in reality) = not relaible
Maybe we can get Scott Olsen in that deal too…
Dave,
You actually improved a 100% from your fist on the air time. You did speak slower in my subjective opinion and I heard ever word you said. Very Nice work.
Greg
73 – “If that’s true, Bill should be fired before the deadline so that deal won’t happen.”
If that’s true, I can think of TWO front office’s that deserve to be fired.
Keith Law: “reported the Mariners might be willing to part with center field prospect Adam Jones.”
Law’s either hedging what he knows is not likely to be true in order to garner ratings, or he’s being lazy and just picking the name of the first Mariners’ prospect to come to mind. It doesn’t sound as if he believes it would really happen.
Hey, Dave sounded pretty good! I normally don’t listen to the monkeys on KJR, but I was glad to listen to that.
#80. Just like Dave said, I couldn’t wait for July 31 come and gone quick enough. The fact that Adam Jones hasn’t been called up had me really worried. Geoff Baker mentioned in his blog that maybe the reason he wasn’t getting called up was the M’s still weren’t sure if he would be traded. If he’s not traded, you can expect him to be up here on August 1st. The FO probably hasn’t made up their mind yet on whether to trade Adam Jones. I just worried that this would turn into July 31, 1997, where we traded Cruz Jr, Varitek and Lowe away on the same day, only this time it’s Jones, Balentine and Clement.
80 – I think that there is no reason to limit it to just those possibilities.
He could know anything from nothing at all to something pretty solid that he couldn’t get confirmed. And pretty much anything in between.
I wouldn’t bet a dime on it being true or false.
All I can say for sure is that if it was, in fact, true, it would upset me a great deal.
42: Interesting thoughts on Howell…looking at his gamelogs, it seems like most of that damage came in a couple of outings where he got shelled (one each against the Yanks and Bosox on the road, no less). He might be worth a look — if he didn’t cost too much, that is.
BTW, his page on B-R.com features a plug for the Rays Fan Nation which says “Let’s build Rays Fan Nation into a force.” A FORCE? Judging from their teeming attendance figures, there’s something mildly amusing about that.
75: It’s actually Grozby, but he goes by Groz.
Awesome post Dave!! Captain Poppy in # 3 says it all. What do you think the A’s will do? They have veterans, but they also have pitchers that could be expendable.
crap I missed the KJR show. can it be heard again?
87. As mentioned before: http://950kjr.com/pages/thegrozpage.html
It sounds like the ‘real’ solution is to stockpile young starting pitchers.
Imagine if we’d traded Pineiro or Meche when they first came up (okay, second time around for Meche). Or Dave Fleming, for that matter. What could they have gotten?
But yeah, you’ve gotta get SOMETHING from your farm – either players, or trade pieces. The Mariners of late have seemed to be content to use it as a holding grounds for their roster overages.
Thanks Egass! ;^)
64 – good point man.
85, it’s actually Gro”S”by, but he goes by Groz.
Doesn’t all this perhaps indicate that pitcher performance is extremely volatile from year to year? I mean, you tell me that we could get a guy who’s never had any success for practically free, but you have to be able to determine WHICH guy who’s never had any success.
The earth is littered with pitchers who’ve put together a solid year or couple of months and then disappeared (Dave Fleming, Bob Wolcott, Paul Abbott, etc).
So, I mean, it’s all well and good to say that you COULD get a guy for cheap, but if you can’t predict with any certainty who the cheap guy will be (after all, you can’t sign everybody), what’s the point…
The same is true of expensive guys. If throwing a bunch of money (or talent in trade) at someone doesn’t significantly increase your chance of getting a good pitcher, then you shouldn’t do it. That’s the whole point.
Gosh, John in L.A., in #75 you’ve got me completely confused.
Help me understand –
Is wading through all the pissing and moaning therapeutic for you?
Did I miss your name on the masthead somewhere?
Or are you the only comment poster allowed to comment on the character of the conversation?
Which is it, John? I’d like to know before I run afoul of your arbitration again.
dave, you have some personal issue towards Johnson? his bat is developing, especially for a dude that has half of the career at bats compared to most of his team mates. Defensively he is solid. strong leader. Periodically you admit that you have to eat your words, will this be another one of those instances in a few years?
He’s 24 years old. He has no power. He doesn’t have a good approach at the plate. He’s slow. He’s a contact hitter who generates what little offense he can by hitting the ball into holes, and based on his .250 career minor league average, he’s not particularly good at that either.
The guy just doesn’t have major league skills. The Mariners love him because of his personality, but as a baseball player, he’s a Double-A guy.