Just a quick note
Dave · August 1, 2007 at 8:34 am · Filed Under Mariners
As I’m prepping to fly back to Seattle this afternoon, and will be spending most of my time in the northwest away from a computer, the wave of neverending Dave posts will be taking a hiatus until next week. I won’t disappear, but if you’re wondering where the new Future Forty is or why I’m not answering any of your questions, try not to get offended.
For those of you who have registered for the USSM/LL events the next couple of nights, I look forward to seeing you all there.
I wish I could be there! Have fun guys, and try not to let ALL your conversation center on John McLaren’s lineup debacles.
Dave, just think of it as enforced ergonomic rest
have a good time all– various family things messed up my plans, so I won’t be there after all, so polish off a beer and dog for me while enjoying a nice bitch and pitch.
Dave:
Leaving for Hawai’i tomorrow or else I would have been there. Would be nice to see you again (last time was the pizza feed in Capitol Hill about four years ago).
Best wishes for a good flight, good visit with family, and a good time at the get-together.
Have fun guys, wish I could attend.
P.S. I have an odd feeling AJ is going to get called up juuuuust before your trip to Tacoma.
Man, wish I could have come. Thought about it. I really want to pick the brains of the smarter people here. I’m from the Seattle area, but my wife and I are in Cheney, WA for a time until she finishes school. I will be at the next event.
Good think Derek got out of Clarion in time. You’ve been a posting machine over the last 5 weeks, Dave.
For those of you who have registered for the USSM/LL events the next couple of nights, I look forward to seeing you all there.
Except, probably, for me ;P
Have a wonderful and well deserved hiatus. In other news,
Crap.
For those who miss the eighties: in defense of Raul Ibanez, the author of the above story, Patrick Brown, lists his eight game-winning RBI. Not even a bad statistic like regular RBI, but its bastard stepchild, the one that MLB gave up on tracking eighteen years ago.
But how, how can you avoid referring to a statistic whose record belongs to Keith Hernandez (129)?
They claim they stopped tracking it, but it’s actually a necessary component of determining who the losing pitcher is. Who was pitching when the game-winning RBI took place?
I remember a year or so ago one of the M’s commentators (Fairly, I think) hauled out game-winning RBIs for some player. Neihaus was incredulous, “Didn’t they stop tracking that?” Fairly insisted that while they’d stopped making the stat available, MLB still tracked it.
Outfielders playing well?
WHEN?
Well, I’m not TOO worried about that article on the official site.
As someone referenced in the game thread last night, McLaren is saying what he has to to keep his current players happy.
Now, if August goes by and still no Adam Jones while the Mariners slip further behind the Angles, that’ll be a different story, but for now, I’m inclined to believe Geoff Baker when he says that AJ will be up within the week.
I’m still laughing over the “combined batting average” for the outfield, though.
Now that the book is closed, our Raul Ibanez OPS for July: .491.
Small sample size alert: July only has 31 days. If it had 32, he might have been even worse.
Yeah, combined batting average sure is a stupid stat to bring out when you consider Ichiro’s hitting .347. Ibanez and Guillen would have to be Mendoza line bad to bring down the combined batting average.
I’m honestly sick of this Bavasi/McLaren “proven vets… team chemistry” shit-talk. This is not a fun a team to follow. It’s an irritating team to follow. Damn me and my love for Seattle sports.
Ibanez is atrocious against LHP.
Guillen is atrocious against RHP.
Sexson is atrocious against LHP and RHP.
Lopez and Betancourt are atrocious.
Johjima is borderline atrocious against RHP.
It really is amazing that the M’s are only 4 games out. Really amazing.
I understand not bringing up AJ for the Angels series for Bavasi’s prospective. It would be setting him up to fail for his first two games to be against Escobar and Lackey. Then you know McLaren would probably revert back to using the known quantity in Ibanez.
If we’re going to wait for the perfect scenario then we might as well just wait for Sept. 1st. I believe AJ is ready to help now, whether he’s got to face Escobar, Lackey, and the Good Weaver or not.
If I have to watch Ibanez face another lefty I might vomit. In fact, if I have to watch him face another righty I might vomit. Free AJ. Bring him up now.
I understand not bringing up AJ for the Angels series for Bavasi’s prospective. It would be setting him up to fail for his first two games to be against Escobar and Lackey. Then you know McLaren would probably revert back to using the known quantity in Ibanez.
That same argument was made to justify not bringing him up after the All-Star break. Wouldn’t want him to face Bonderman/Rogers/Verlander/Miller.
That argument could be made indefinitely.
Red Sox are coming to town — wouldn’t want him to face their pitching.
Ughh. That article is so disingenuous it makes me sick. Why do they even feel the need to defend the decision in public if they are just trotting out the same old nonsense?
Last night I went to the game carrying a big white sign. In bold black block letters it read “FREE ADAM JONES.” I held it up the entire game and then walked through Safeco back to my car with it above my head. I got a lot of applause and appreciative nods and one, “you’re an idiot.” However, I did stop outside Jimmy’s on First and stand outside the window holding the sign directly in front of Jeff Nelson’s face for a good couple of minutes. I know he saw me, he looked at me several times. I don’t think he mentioned me on the radio though…
21 — Good man.
Hey, if you combine Ichiro’s BA and Sexson’s BA they bat .282! That must make Sexson a steady hitter, right?
I began to think a bit about what a July 1st, as opposed to August 1st callup of AJ would have meant for the Ms. I think everyone here would agree that, had that happened, Jones would have started in LF at minimum every game against LHP (ok, so maybe not such a smart assumption). Then I thought, well…that would have cost at-bats to both Ibanez and Vidro. While we all can agree that lost at-bats to Ibanez would have been a net positive during one of his worst months as a pro, would lost at-bats by Vidro have been a negative?
So, I looked up Vidro’s “hot month” of July.
He’s hitting: .341/.417/.412 for the month. He has 29 hits, 6 of them doubles. He had no triples, and no HR during his “hot” month. So, 23 singles. Since we know that a high singles rate is the most shaky in terms of sustainable hitting, I think he’s due for a fall.
Further, his BABIP was .389. Can anyone say “luck?” Granted, he’s taken 11 walks, and I won’t diminish that, so it might be the case that his patience is paying off with better pitches to hit. I don’t have a subscription to base-ball reference, so if anyone out there can get me his Line Drive % for the month of July, I think it would interesting to compare that number to these. My hypothesis would be that this month has been a bunch of seeing-eye singles, but I can’t say for sure without the data.
Bottom line, I think if anyone were to offer the argument that bringing up Jones (when it was advised by outsiders) would have been a negative since it would have diminished the “hot” month of Turbo, those people would need to look a little closer at just what they got from him. He had a decent month, no doubt…but he certainly hasn’t changed as a hitter.
A man can drown in water that averages .200 feet deep.
Get ready to laugh: From MLB.com (article linked above, post #
He combines the Batting averages to shield Ibanez, then brings up irrelevant stats to make him look good. This is the worst piece of spin I’ve seen in a long while.
26-
O’Reilly Factor?
Actually, while I’m no fan, give Vidro credit for a good month. I haven’t seen his LD% but he’s certainly not getting the number of infield hits he had earlier in the year. He’s ripped a lot of hard line drives of late, and even a few gappers that got tracked down by outfielders (faster outfielders than Raul).
26- wow, that’s beyond laughable. Dude isn’t just being stupid, he’s lying. That really pisses me off
Who says Ibanez and Guillen are slow? Combined, our outfielders are of average speed.
At least if you include Bloomquist and Ellison along with Ichiro.
28: he did have a good month, no doubt. Still no power, but it was a productive month nonetheless. I think you’d agree that it doen’t seem sustainable, but as we’re talking about the recent past, I don’t care about that so much.
29: yeah, I know…it makes my blood boil. Besides, Ichiro shouldn’t be part of the discussion. Throwing him out there as “outfielders checking their rear view mirror” is so ridiculous I don’t even know where to start.
Wow! I just found out Bill Gates and I combined have a net worth of over 11 billion dollars!
In the meantime, Ibanez, Guillen and Ichiro have held their own in the outfield. Combined, they have a.294 batting average
Derek, Dave, Ichiro and myself have a combined 30 SB on the season too.
We’re looking to add to that number tonight.
32-
You need help. I mean, Gates is worth close to 60 billion dollars. You are in horrendous debt.
Johan Santana and I combined for 2 CY. And we are both unhappy about being in Minn. Can we combine to move to Seattle?
32… you’re my hero! That was so good…my m&m’s just flew out of my closed mouth and hit my cinema display. Dang it… now I’ve got to clean my beautiful monitor… ROTFLOL…..wow.
C’mon guys….don’t you know that Raul is second on the team with 24 two-out RBIs?
Clutchiness!!!!
35…actually there’s a chance. He’s not very happy with the FO.
32… you can probably afford to buy the Mariners!
There’s a nice softball piece (straight from the Mariners PR department in all likelihood) in the print version of the P-I today.
Basically, to sum up the point that the “Minors Mashers” chart on page 2 of the sports section is trying to make:
“AJ Zapp had 5 more homers in 2004 than Adam Jones has so far this season, and HE didn’t get called up to the majors; so BE QUIET INTERNETS”.
Isn’t it clear now that, barring injury, Adam Jones is going to stay in Tacoma until either the end of this month or the September roster expansion (depending on whether the Ms are still in the race)? And when he does come up he’s not taking over for anybody, but will sit on the bench and get a few spot starts?
From what everything the Mariners PR machine is saying, it is obvious that chemistry, fan-friendliness, and veteran clubhouse leadership are more important than putting the best players on the field. We’ve known this for a long time, but Adam Jones is proving to be a particularly painful and mind-boggling example of this backwards thinking.
34 – Well, thirty is over 11. But point taken. I’m off to credit counseling…
36, 39 – Glad you liked. I’ll speak with my accountant (as soon as I get one) to discuss the purchase.
*still shaking head over ‘combined batting average’*
You know what makes for a fan-friendly experience? Winning games. The better the offense, defense and pitching, the fan-friendlier the experience.
I dunno – aren’t you just as happy with a loss as long as you go home with a bobble head of your favorite “proven veteran”?
I can understand the front office’s reluctance to promote Adam Jones. After all, who wants to see a young player with speed, the ability to flash leather, and some pop in his bat? Oh, not me. Change is scary!
No, the front office has the Neanderthal notion that chemistry, clubhouse leadership and veteran presence LEADS to offense and winning games (defense is neglible to them).
They know darn well that winning leads to attendance—it’s just that they have extremely inefficient ways of getting players who can win. They get just enough results to think that they’re getting the job done, when a smaller outlay and a more judicious focus of effort will get somewhat more effective results.
Really it’s all about how you predict future performance. What do you believe is the best way to predict Raul Ibanez’ performance during the rest of the season: his lame performance during July or his terrific performance during past seasons.
Obviously Bavasi believes he will bounce back. He is not intentionally choosing to play a guy who he believes will turn in a sub-.500 OPS the rest of the year. He doesn’t believe he’ll continue to suck.
Same goes for Sexson. They believe he’ll turn it around. Most of us don’t. It’s not about greed, or venality, or cynical disregard for winning. It’s a disagreement about the best way to get there.
Don’t forget, when you talk about Raul’s awful month of July, that he slugged .540 in June (276/330/540). Remember that “hey, maybe it was actually his shoulder” post?
I want to see him sitting against lefties. I want to see Adam Jones in the OF every day. But I also want to see Raul turn it around as he did in June.
#48, Ralph Malph:
Nice post!
Good points Ralph. I think letting Raul focus exclusively on hitting, and exclusively on hitting righties at that, might be the best way to go about getting him back on track. Even if it doesn’t help, per se, it’s still certainly the only thing he will do well even if he does turn it around (which I agree is more likely than we may be giving him credit for much of the time).
Felix’ and Mark Lowe’s combined fastball speed is almost 200 MPH.
Daves Boy J.P. Howells last start in AAA
7.0 ip, 2 h, 0 er, 1 bb, 12 k
Now just picture how much nicer that is then HoRam. and I bet TB would have jumped at the chance to get Raffy Soriano, seeing as how they traded for the POS that is Dan Wheeler.
Oh sorry forgot to add: ESPN fantasy baseball news updates had one for Adam Jones, saying we should see him soon, and then in the ‘spin’ on it said that he should have been up long ago, but was held back until the trade deadline by Bavasi. even random writers in conneticut know he should be up.
Yeah, I agree.
I think a good plan is to acknowledge that these ARE veterans…but that they are scuffling at the moment. We ALL want them to return to their usual level of performance if at all possible.
Bring AJ up to spell them for a bit. If that works for the vet, then there’s no problem. If it doesn’t, you really haven’t lost anything. And if AJ forces his way into the lineup because of his performance, well….I think even the most privileged vet won’t have a problem with that.
Or random writers in Connecticut read the same local coverage as we do and repeat it as “analysis.”
So does tonight’s game shape up as the most important of the season so far?
The trade deadline has passed and the final race begins. Can the team truly compete as constituted?
It is August 1. The dog days are here–for those out of contention.
They win, and they are within 3 games. Lose, and they are five back. (Of course the wild card is still in play).
They are at home against the one team that is killing them and the one they are trying to catch, LAAofA. They win and they take the series at home; they lose and they lose the series at home.
Felix Hernandez is on the mound. He is the ace in the making, and here is a big stage on which to shine.
He’s facing the Angels young phenom Jared Weaver. Who’s got the better young pitcher (of course we know what the answer will be in the future even if it doesn’t happen for the King tonight).
I think it’s a pretty important game tonight.
Important? Yes, but lets not kid ourselves. Win or lose there is alot of baseball left to be played.
That said – knock ‘em dead King!
57. What I hope is that this isn’t the last time we wonder whether this is the most important game of the season to this point. If they go down five games with the Red Sox coming on, it is quite possible that their future meetings with the Angels won’t have much at stake. I hope there are several more “most important games so far” left to be played. Winning tonight makes that much more likely.
Actually, even if their last big game is played on August 1, that is probably more than I expected from this bunch prior to the season. That’s how bad 2004-06 were.
I have just found out that if I combine my common sense with the M’s FO we still only have 1 guy with common sense. Thats a tough stat in regards to the future because I can’t bring up Adam Jones or start platooning veterans.
Not really. Right now Coolstandings gives us a 10.8 chance of taking the division, and obviously another game back would be worse. Five games behind with 56 to play may not be much, but it is. Tonight’s game is huge, and thinking otherwise would in fact be kidding ourselves.
I meant “may not seem like much, but it is.”
As has been noted here; the M’s are doing a lot with very little. face it they are simply not as good as the Angels. But how would we look with this rotation/bullpen: Felix, Washburn, Meche, Moyer, Morrow and Soriano.
I wonder what Ibanez and Sexson’s two out with runners in scoring position BA is since the All Star Break? Oh what the heck, what’ they’re plain old BA since the break?
While I’m at it, has anyone noticed Ibanez’ lollipop throws to home lately? His arm is as weak as his legs are right now.
63- I have noticed he won’t even throw to 2nd anymore, he just lobs it down to 3rd. I know he probably isn’t going to get anyone but not even trying is ridiculous.
Ral, Sexson, and Joh are all batting mid 100′s since the break.
With Joh and others slumping, I yearn for the days of Lou, where everybody got a little rest and McLemore got 500 AB’s. But you Know, Burke plays only on Sunday day games, no platoon splits for tired slumping veterans, and I pull another clump of hair out.
That’s okay, that just means their combined batting average is over .300!
The most ridiculous aspect of this vauge “veteran clubhouse leadership” notion – to where, and whom, are these veterans leading? Isn’t the whole point of a coaching staff to lead?
What kind of leadership, praytell, could Ibanez and Sexson offer? What *not* to do in clutch situations at the plate? How to make mediocre fielding appear more substantial than it is?
Darnit – “vauge” = “vague”.
“Not really. Right now Coolstandings gives us a 10.8 chance of taking the division, and obviously another game back would be worse. Five games behind with 56 to play may not be much, but it is. Tonight’s game is huge, and thinking otherwise would in fact be kidding ourselves.”
Well every game is big because we are behind. We have to win 5 more games than the Angels over the course of 56 games to take the division – I understand just how “big” that is. But we will lose games on nights when the Angels win between now and the end of the season – count on it and those games we be just as big as this one in the standings.
The biggest thing about tonight (for me) is how Felix performs and whether the teams looks like they want to dig in and go toe to toe with the Angels.
I know we are not big “feeling” guys here on this site, but the last few series against the Angels almost everyone has looked a little (a)pathetic or disinterested. Not attempting to work counts etc. once we fall back a few runs. In contrast vs. the A’s this year it just seems like the M’s spit and claw the whole way. Maybe its just a convergence of variables and percentages but I’d still like to see the M’s spit in the Angel’s eye.
Ken, I agree 100%. Are the veterans leading themselves? Yuni and Lopez are the only young guys and what leadership they get should be from the coaching staff or Beltre. What advice is a slugging 1st basemen going to give middle infielders who might hit 25HR in a career year? Is Ral leading Ichiro and Guillen? Aren’t the Angels proof you only need a few veterans not 7 of them?
In any case, our best chance by far will be the wild card. The Indians are a better team but I doubt that they’ll win the division – I don’t see the Tigers struggling for long, but with that bullpen, who knows. And there’s no way that the Yanks can continue to score 10+ runs a game, and their pitching still sucks, so I don’t see them finishing with more than 86-88 wins. 90-92 wins may net the wild card.
As long as I’m being a softy: Anyone who has been involved in sports knows that leadership IS a real value on a team. Leadership is not not to be disparaged, and is virtually required for a truly competitive team.
However, anyone who has been involved in sports also knows that clubhouse leadership does not have to come from the most talented player, or even a starting player. Clubhouse leadership is just that – clubhouse (not on the field) leadership. The “vague” club house leadership comes from the guys who keep everyone loose and focused and thinking about the team.
If your veteran leader sulks because he is taken out of his “rightful” role because someone else might help the team more… then guess what, he’s not that much of a leader after all is he? If Ibanez and Sexson are really leaders its time to find out. Shift them to the roles there current performance dictates and lets see if they really are the leaders everyone chalks them up to being.
I hate the atmosphere in pro sports todays where selfish veterans* are anointed leaders by the media just because they spend time time in front of the microphone.
Grrrr, sorry went off the deep end a little there
[/rant]
* I’m not calling Ibanez or Sexson selfish at this point – no one on the team (to my knowledge) has asked them to change their roles so they are still just trying to fill the slots management has them in at this point.
Yes. The real test of Ibanez and his veteran leadership will be when he is asked to take a reduced role for the good of the team based on his own performance and the potential of Jones.
Yes. Let’s see where he’s focussed—on the good of the team or the potential of Jones.
Any “veteran leader” is going to have to take a look at himself and say, “what’s going to help the team the most right now?”
Further reason why I LOVE JJ putz, courtesy Seattle P-I:
“I heard the Royals wanted Jones for (reliever Octavio) Dotel,” closer J.J. Putz said before Tuesday’s game. “When you hear something like that, it’s just ridiculous
Heh. That is a good quote. It gets tiresome sometimes hearing the same prettied-up-for-public-consumption comments. That’s why it’s so refreshing when someone breaks the mold and starts biting people. Oh, wait.
Hey! Texas is leading Cleveland 3-0 in the 2nd! Thatsa good sign…
…and Oakland beat Detroit
Hey, I’m still looking for exact time/place details for tomorrow’s USSM event in Tacoma … please post here or send by e-mail.
Where is the game thread for Tonight?
Lineups are out and…
CF Ichiro
DH Jose Vidro
RF Jose Guillen
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Ben Broussard
C Kenji Johjima
2B Jose Lopez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
(wierd the rest of that post got cut off)
But Broussard is starting over Richie tonight! Must dig for more info.
The good news is that Richie is on the bench… the bad news is Raul is hitting cleanup. Baby steps, I suppose.
Maybe the start of a platoon? Hopefully it keeps up, depending on the pitcher!
Baker’s blog suggests that 82 is correct and there is “no comment” beyond the fact that Sexson will be in the lineup tomorrow….
Richie Sexson will begin losing playing time to Ben Broussard until he can turn things around.
”It’s been four months,” manager John McLaren said. ”We’ve talked and talked. And I think he and (hitting coach) Jeff Pentland have found some things that may help. But he’s got to get it done. We need Richie. But Ben’s done a nice job.”
Great news then. I never thought the FO would have the sense to do it.
Where is the game thread for Tonight?
The game threads around here aren’t normally posted two hours before game time.
You’re right – my computer clock jumped an hour. Sorry for jumping the gun!