Game 111, Mariners at Orioles
DMZ · August 8, 2007 at 3:23 pm · Filed Under Game Threads
FELIX DAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY.
4:05
Felix versus some Guthrie guy. Whatever.
No Jones in the lineup! Yeah! We get Sexson! And Ibanez! Woooo!
Have you seen this man?
Have you seen this man?
If so, please contact the Mariners immediately, as they are needed for tonight’s game.
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hmm. a righty who has been pitching pretty well of late.
hey! a shout out by Larry Stone in the blog
Another day Jones wastes away on the bench.
I remember that picture that said “Missing: Adam Jones, last seen beating up AAA pitching” a few weeks ago.
Can we modify that to say “Missing: Adam Jones, last seen wasting on the bench”
but, Derek– they are On Fire! almost as much as Dave!
Pitman just asked why in the world Richie is playing vs Guthrie– Blow did point out that we don’t even know if Broussard is back with the team yet …
I just don’t understand.
We don’t expect them to drop Raul, just DH him.
We don’t expect them to drop Richie, just sit him against tough righties and give Broussard a shot.
It’s not so tough to grasp.
Oh well, let’s hope Felix gets 12Ks and 15 groundouts to 2nd and short so that Ibanez and Sexson have sod-all to screw up.
Sexson again?
=/
I didn’t think that even the Mariners were dense enough to use their top prospect in the same role as Jason Ellison.
speaking of AJ, Ellison was picked up by the Reds
The Ms suck. They always have and they always will.
GO MS!!!!!!!!!!
M’s drop an outfielder and the Reds pick him up… please don’t let this start the rumor mill of Junior trades…. please not again :\
8- The best post ever in my opinion.
We are not a good franchise.
Go M’s!!!
I predict a huge game from Felix. Partially because the Orioles are bad, but mostly because I am going to be stuck at work until approximately the end of time with no access to a TV set.
Can’t wait to see AJ pinch run in the late innings. McLaren, you are a donkey.
9- WE”RE TRADING FOR JUNIOR?????
Someone inform local papers immediately.
#9– I think we’re safe. (“Cincinnati Reds outfielder Ryan Freel underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee Wednesday”). maybe.
To be honest I wish Ellison well in the NL, he just didn’t fit here (no matter what Guillen says to the contrary)
ok, AJ figures that if he hits 40 HRs a year, and plays until he is about 44, he might catch Barry.
That would mean actually getting in a game, mind you.
I think Ben Broussard’s wife and newborn baby knows where he is ;P
Can’t say the same for poor Adam Jones. One big night from our lead-footed LF just bought him a bunch of pine time. A sustained CF/DH platoon with Ichiro may be his only hope for quality PT at this point.
Is it common for teams to bring up their top prospect to sit on the bench?
#18– why, that would be like putting your top pitching prospect in to the big league bullpen, not having him start in the minors
Seriously, I think we’re getting into Nancy Kerrigan territory here. Jones is only going to get the starts he needs if Guillen or Ibanez get injured, because McLaren is an incompetent tool. Not that I’m wishing injury on them but….okay well I am wishing injury on them, but nothing too bad! Just maybe a tweaked hamstring for a few games so Jones can actually hit the ball and earn himself more PT.
USSM can do images???
And there it is … per Larry Stone at the Times blog – they’re not in any hurry to put Jones in the lineup. They feel he should just sit on the bench and learn.
I bet that Jones doesn’t start in left until the M’s face a lefty in Chicago this weekend. The M’s see another Oriole righty tomorrow and Vasquez on Friday. That means no Adam Jones, unless he spells Guillen in this heatwave, until Sat. or Sun.
22 – Why, exactly, do I pay money to watch this team?
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…..
18- All the time look at Lincecum… wait I mean Miller, no no. How about Braun? Still no… maybe Justin Upton he was only in AA they must have sat him! Oops, no Upton is hitting .412 with a 1.294 OPS through 5 games.
Hunter Pence is sitting!! It took the DL so I guess that doesn’t count.
Nope just the Mariners sit top prospects.
22 – I threw up in my mouth a little bit when I read that quote from McLaren about playing time for Jones
That note in Baker’s blog (via Stone) about Mac’ view of Jones is truly disappointing. I was not Grover fan, but I honestly feel that Mac has done a worse job as a manager, at least thus far, in managing the lineups and bullpen.
well, crap.
Should read “I was no Grover fan, . . .
What? They figured he didn’t learn enough last year?
(And don’t you learn more by doing?)
Once again, it must be said – the people running the M’s are good folks, but they deserve to lose their jobs.
They can’t bench Ibanez the day after a two homer game…or Guillen the day after a four hit game…I guess I’d give Vidro a day off. Of course, Guthrie is quite a bit harder on righties than lefties. As much as I hate benching Adam, if they’re gonna do it, this seems like as good a day as any. Of course, playing Sexson ahead of Broussard against a guy who kills righties is just plain dumb.
McLaren has been so disappointing. Ugh.
Best part of tonights game minus Ichiro & Felix is I get to listen to the O’s commentators.
The Ral, Sexson, McLaren part makes me sick.
Why not have AJ play first?
It’s not a difficult position…
24
Didn’t you read what 22 said? You’re paying to watch this team because you’re learning by watching. You know, just like Adam Jones is. Maybe if you watch enough games, you’ll make the all-star team just like I’m sure Adam Jones will after he’s spent a month on the bench.
DA – AJ’s minor-league splits don’t suggest he should sit against righties:
vs. LHP: .318/.387/.607
vs. RHP: .313/.380/.578
He should be in the lineup everyday. PERIOD.
We should all be great at being awful managers by now, we have been watching Mclaren for awhile now.
Mclaren just said Adams has a new role instead of just “sitting” on the bench, aparently between innings he is supposed to give back massages to all the VETERANS because Mclaren’s hands are getting tired i guess.
If the decision is to Platoon AJ/Ral adn Sexson/Broussard – well there’s a RHP on the mound, and Broussard is probably still with mother and child. Not un-reasonable baby steps for McLaren.
Given Hargrove’s time off for his daughter’s graduation, and Broussard’s time off to be with newborn, it’s a shame Lopez didn’t get time to grieve his brother’s death.
I agree completely, 37. Like I said, I hate sitting Adam. HATE IT. I was just saying that if they have to sit him (which they don’t have to do), this is a logical game to do it.
We won’t see Jones until Sunday.
Unless Ibanez hits another Home Run.
Holy Moly. What’s into the M’s non-homer hitters? Vidro with a jack?
Turblol
Did Vidro….just…..hit…….a ball over the fence?
Homerun by Vidro!
Don’t see that every day.
OMG
Dammit, Vidro! Don’t you start…
Wow. That was a long single!
How far was that??? center field!!!
One thing I’m curious about is this: Does management (Bavasi and Mac) sincerely believe they are doing what gives the team the best chance to win every night? Or do they know they are not, but are weighing more heavily other considerations?
Let me repeat that:
DID VIDRO JUST HIT A HOME RUN, OFF OF JEREMY GUTHRIE, IN THE FIRST INNING?!
TURBOFUNK.
Turbo thanks for proving Ral is a fluke!
Raul last night; Vidro tonight? Take about a power surge!
What kind of a tear in the time-space continuum have the M’s slipped into? This is un-sane.
Stay indoors people. Pigs are flying.
great for felix to start the 1st inning with a 2+ run lead!
[punctuation]
I hate veterans…
(those who play baseball, I mean…)
Wow, Blowers is a weasel.
[spelling]
I had the sound down, what did Blowers do?
[shift keysssss-- GONE]
I said it before. I think the Mariners run a large risk of alienating Jones to the point where he’d rather be traded. I don’t know what messages he gets from the FO and his agent, but clearly the clubhouse and manager are sending serious bad vibes.
[spelling]
That’s a good question, 51. I think that they believe they are doing what is best for the team, but I think they are giving a lot more weight to seniority and past performance when they should be focusing on the present.
I think (and I bet a lot of you would agree) that developing young talent is the most important part of building a strong team, especially if you have a limited budget. Helping Adam helps the Mariners now and in the future, but even if Ibanez was playing good, I’d still say that when a young potential star is ready for the majors, you need to play him in the majors. Even if they do help Raul or Sexson play better for the rest of the year, how much impact will that have on the future of this franchise?
I would pay money to see the look on Larry Stone’s face and hear his inner monologue when McLaren says things like that.
¡Viva Turbo!
65 – Jones is under club control for another five years or so. We don’t have to give a trade request any attention whatsoever.
Now, if you want to talk about his development being stunted, that’s another story.
Wow, thanks Blowers. I agree, it is a good idea to keep opposing batters off the bases. Thanks.
good relay gets him.
Blowers is the John Madden of baseball.
“Wow, thanks Blowers. I agree, it is a good idea to keep opposing batters off the bases.”
Somewhere, Ron Fairly is beating his chest: “I taught him that. Hit me again, barkeep!”
Good to see Felix is back to his almost all fastball throwing ways. Tony LaRussa would be proud.
I’m still confident that the Orioles will run into at least three outs this game, as they so love to do.
I’m beginning to think that Vidro reads the blogs here at the USSM religiously.
73 – I was just about to mention that. It seems Fairly has passed on the Captain Obvious mantle to Blow-by-Blowers.
Boy, Felix always seems to give up a lot of hits on balls that aren’t hit that hard. When’s he gonna regress to the mean?
regression, check.
Huh, according to the Fox Sports Gamecast the managers for this game are Mike Hargrove and Sam Perlozzo.
Must be Turn Back the Managerial Clock Night in Baltimore.
During the “coaching visit to mound” (as Gameday puts it) do you think Chaves said, “hey, Felix, those internet nerds noticed you’re throwing all fastballs again”?
Bleh, no spiffy Gameday pitch tracking in Camden? Feh on that.
I like the point I recently saw somebody make, ‘If you want to show that you have confidence in your veterans, the flip side of that is showing Jones and Balentien that you have no confidence in them no matter how thoroughly they decimate AAA.’ If I were Jones, I’d be furious at this point; McLaren is screwing my career and my chances at ZOMG free agent money so that he can continue to nuture his man-crush on Ibanez, Vidro, and Guillen veteranosity.
Also, how does one triple on a ground ball to RF?
How pissed do you think Willie was watching Brian Roberts get a “Heart and Hustle Award”?
Sexson has another hit, this time off of a righty. That means he’s going to start in 20 more games….great.
I’m soooo glad we’re missing Bedard’s spot. Perhaps a sweep is in order? Speaking of which, I’d like to check opponents’ projected starters for the next few weeks and see who we’re up against.
Lauren, token chick:
Did you hang at the P-I blog a couple years back?
Meanwhile, Sexson’s showing last night wasn’t a fluke.
How does ESPN Gamecast show pitch location? They seem to do it for every game.
87-
Yea, he’s showing that flukes know no bounds. He’s allowed to get “hot”, but it will end soon. The troublesome part is that this will show McLaren that he’s capable and worthy to be in the lineup daily.
Or he’s showing that both nights are flukes.
P-I blog: Nope. I’ve been here for about that long, though.
87
Let him hit a few homers. Then I’ll think he’s back on track.
The M’s are certainly doing things bass-ackward with Jones and Morrow. Jones had nothing left to prove in the minors, was left there for no good reason, and should be playing frequently at the big league level. Conversely, Morrow has plenty of reasons to be in the minors. (Shrug). Whaddya gonna do?
“Bill Bavasi, an executive with the then-known California Angels felt Mendoza (Mario Mendoza, founder of the Mendoza Line) was someone who had potential as a manager because he felt that Mendoza could relate to all types of different personalities.”
No wonder Sexson is still hitting, Bavasi likes guys with low averages.
Let’s see….if Sexson goes 5-5 tonight with 2 HR, and goes 3-5 tomorrow…..nope it’d still be a fluke.
No reason to not platoon him anyways. If his bat is really back it’ll show in the platoon.
Trivia question: Shiggy.
more regression!
8-pitch innings are good, and other pitchers on the M’s staff should be encouraged to throw them. Perhaps it’s time for another letter to Chavez.
87: ’cause we’re totally paying Sexson to hit bloop singles to the center fielder. That was his skill set all along, and it’s good to see that he’s back on track for the 280/330/390 line we all expected at the beginning of the season.
Meanwhile, we might have the next Ryan Braun (665 slg) or Hunter Pence (564 slg) sitting on our bench, but McLaren neither knows nor cares.
Another single for the Tubster.
8-pitch innings are good, and other pitchers on the M’s staff should be encouraged to throw them. Perhaps it’s time for another letter to Chavez.
The rest of the staff isn’t as groundball-prone as Felix, so an eight-pitch inning will usually be quite lucky for them, as it will mean pitching to contact and hoping the flyballs don’t go over the wall.
Ah, if only Turbo had staying in fielder’s shape. Kind of tough to believe he’s only 32 – his physique screams “40-something couch tater”.
Ok its fluke time, set up perfectly.
I sure hope Raul is okay. I hope they don’t have to take him out and put in Adam Jones.
C’mon Richie! Do it for Izzy Jo! You are her favorite player!
(She’s four, and doesn’t know any better.)
Hunch…. Benches will clear some point in this ballgame.
it was offered, he didn’t take it.
OMG. a segment on Robot Chicken on NPR.
Look at that speed!
103 – yea god forbid that would happen…itd ruin ‘team chemistry’.
Wow.. mora has had TERRIBLE D this series.
Yes I sure hope they don’t have to sit Raul on the bench after that and unfortunately put in Adam Jones that would just be terrible.
Btw Mora is terrible, wow.
Winning is about defense, pitching and 3 run homers. Come on Ritchie.
Good enough.
106: Do you think they could convince him to take it now? Maybe he’s only now at that step in the grieving process.
Nice… error… Richie!
I’ll buy that for a dollar.
62 pitches already for guthrie… that is awesome for the mariners especially with this heat.
Robot Chicken + NPR = Jumped Shark
sorry, I’m new here…I should only talk baseball, uh Vidro is 2 for 2 and the O’s are fundamentally, preternaturally unsound.
Felix,
Mix. Your. Pitches.
I think Millar should have picked that ball. Looked like a good long hop.
First time here…watching the blackout on MLB.tv. Fantastic stuff. Worth every penny.
Hammer? Both of his hits today were fairly weak groundballs. A foot in either direction and they’re routine ground outs.
Sorry, I just got home. Now for a well deserved but belated… MMMYYYYYY TUUUUURRRBOOOO LOOOOOVVVVVAAAAHHHHH.
Awesome defense. Ibanez with no range. And Yuni craping his pants with a bad throw.
How Oriole-ish, boys.
Is there any way Jones wouldn’t have gotten to that seemingly routine fly ball?
Ibanez, Ibanez, Ibanez… nice dive. Really. You’re awesome.
dammit. I want AJ.
See Felix, this is what happens when you don’t listen.
Adam Jones better be giving McLaren one hell of a death stare! That shit should be caught!!
I am so pissed right now.
Strat: Ibanez LF 5e15(+3)
what the ehll was that Raul??
OK, I am as positive as they come, but Ibanez really should’ve had that. But, with that said, Felix needs to do a better job of pitching. If Felix didn’t throw a meatball then it wouldn’t have come to Ibanez’s miscue.
How bout throw some curve balls Felix?
Felix being Felix…
So two earned runs for Felix and a tied ball game all because Mac is an idiot.
Awesome.
133- That is Felix’s fault for getting a fairly routine flyball to left for out number 3. Damn him for making Ral take an awful route and have poor speed! Can’t get a ground ball on every pitch.
shouldn’t one of those runs be unearned?
Is the heat getting to Felix or what? He’s been mixing his pitches well lately, what made him decide to stop for this game?
Boy, Felix has been giving up a lot of hits. What’s that all about?
How much golf does Ron Sims play? Every flyball he’s wondering if it’s going to “sit down”. Like a drum.
138, only if he *couldn’t* have scored without the error. Standing on second it’s still possible. On the other hand…I could be talking outta my aaaa…lack of knowledge.
its f-ing hot there
was that a 3-0 pitch for ichiros hit?
Man, that Strikeout by Lopez was weak.
If it weren’t for Raul, Felix would have given up 5 hits, no walks, one run.
Eh… I have to watch Shawn Green, Paul Lo Duca, Luis Castillo and the pitcher waste 1/2 the lineup every day.
Is it common for teams to bring up their top prospect to sit on the bench?
Lastings Milledge.
144 – No, 3-1.
damn that one was caught but vidro is killin the ball lately
140. par for the course when felix faces the o’s
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Guuuuillen!
Sweet Guillen.
nice, finally playing small ball, gettin runs instead of trying to get the big hit,
Manhole!
that was a shot!
Adam Jones Missing Poster Remix:
http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/5056/adamjonesmissingposterrrg7.jpg
pre-game they said it was about 104 on the field. The O’s stadium staff was playing “Let it snow” on the PA.
Right now, Toronto is Killing the Yankees, plus the Tigers are losing to the D-Rays too. Can we say wildcard????
outside of Bedard, watching the O’s has gotta be murder.
Hes just playin Ibanez cause its a righty. I see the logic but we need Jones out there everyday.
I like it when we play the Orioles–it’s like regression to the extreme.
GUILLEN!!!!!
#145 – If it weren’t for Raul, it would have been an inside the park home run.
We have TWICE the number of runs that the Orioles have!
Check out my statistical analysis SKILLZ.
161
Yeah…what the hell?
maybe felix can get into a groove and start shutin em down.
161-Extreme Regression. Good name for a metal band?
Rauuuul.
Daaamn
lol everyone eat some crow….
Raul: Your everyday left fielder.
some Mad Skillz indeed.
hey! Raul!
I rest my case.
Adam Jones is the fire under Raul’s slow-moving butt.
Wow.
I love flukes!
what the hell is goin on!
well we know ibanez can still hit a meatball out of a hitter’s park
163 – “If it weren’t for Raul, it would have been an inside the park home run.”
Huh?
Did someone move Camden Yards to Denver or something? WTH is going on?
Hmmm. Something is very odd. I guess I… like it?
Is there anyone else out there who really didn’t want to see Turbo and Ral go yard today???
177 – it was a meat ball but that was gone anywhere.
Maybe he means…it would’ve been an in the parker if we’d been playing without a left fielder. You know, like we had only two outfielders and they were still playing center and right.
3 Homers in 3 days for Raul, AJ will be on bench for a LONG TIME.
J-Lo hits one deep, right to him..
Raul wants to adopt the Orioles pitching staff.
make it 2 days. my bad
Raul is still -1 Run for the game due to his error. I would take 6-1 over 7-3.
Does Raul have any trading value? just wondering
181 – No. At least not at my place.
179 It’s always been a launching pad
3 Homers in 3 days for Raul, AJ will be on bench for a LONG TIME.
Two days, actually.
If Sexson hits a dinger I’m hiding under my desk.
god damn lets go felix…
189 – Maybe if he has a hot streak we might be able to fool the Pirates into taking him.
sexson has 17 homers, its that he barely hits the ball.
The Pirates do love leadership…I guess.
for Jason Bay how bout.
So, can we charge 3 earned runs to Raul, or what? Jesus, even when his bat’s back, his defense more than neutralizes it.
nice rip Yuni
i’m sure the increasingly drunk O’s fans really loved that Ichiro bunt.
199 if lopez doesnt start doing anything i wouldnt be opposed to start vidro at 2nd and ibby at DH, jones in left.
as i type vidro hits another ball well to the track sac fly.
Camden is an easy park, but 2 of Raul’s 3 HR’s would’ve been gone anywhere else. It’s just because the Orioles pitching staff is giving him absolute meat to whack out there, and they’re clearly giving the same meat to everyone else: Just look at the score.
damn he hit that one well too
Here we go…more soft hits for the Orioles.
After lurking for a couple of ballgames, I figure I’d join up and introduce myself. Glad to see this board as a more mature and analytical site for M’s fans.
Hello, all.
Vidro is a really weak fielder. Having him at second would probably hurt us more than having Adam in left would help us. What about Ibanez at first? I know he’s not good, but Sexson’s not great. Could Ibanez at least be mediocre?
woah beltre
could anyone here what the hecklers were saying to beltre?
looked like he might have been out.
Does anyone else here the Beltre smack-talk going on? The drunk guy in the background is saying “Mike Blowers is a Hall of Famer compared to you!”
King Awsome!
beltre needs to slide, remember the steal in the 1st game of the boston sereis, he was almost out and he didnt slide. jeremy giambi anyone?
211 – little did he know mike blowers is commentating for the M’s in the booth.
214- maybe that’s what prompted the comment in the first place
215: Maybe it was Blowers saying it…
Holy shit my fantasy team is on fire today! There 17/28 (.607) with 7 2bs, 3 homers, 14 RBIs, 8 runs and a 1.804 OPS. wow, too bad i had Gallardo though…
Gold Glove please.
Camden Yards is
actually a pitchers ball park;check out
the baseball reference.com website.
I think Raul Ibanez is the Rodney Dangerfield of Mariner fans.
I never seen Adrian buy anybody fries.
I’m just sayin…
This rally fries thing needs to die a peaceful death soon. The cameras JUST about missed that brilliant play by Beltre so they could show the fries winners getting out their silly signs again.
that shot at the top reminds me again that AJ looks a lot like Eric Davis.
I love watching the faces of fans around winners of the rally fries when they’re on the road. Is that disgust? Or sheer apathy?
So, besides the Mets, the Mariners have the most wins versus a division outside of their own (20) in all of baseball. What could that possibly indicate?
What’s a good source for ‘pitcher’s park’ vs. ‘hitter’s park’ information, anyway?
Felix today: 15 groundouts, 3 flyouts, 2 K’s, 0 BB’s. BABIP=.385.
He wasn’t overpowering in terms of K’s, but a lot of balls in play were hits. And he didn’t get great D. Not terrible.
Camden Yards is actually a pitchers ball park
Camden Yards is the fifth-best park for hitting homers this year, according to park factors. In other offensive categories, it’s pretty close to average. Calling it a pitcher’s park is quite a stretch.
224
I believe that firstinning.com is a good one.
this is FSN. if the fries didn’t exist, they’d be waving the camera around the park at some pulchritude, an adorable tot, a too-close close-up, or yet another replay of an earlier play
The Yankees are getting rocked by Toronto by the way, and Detroit’s down 5-1. Look out wild card! ;p
What’s a good source for ‘pitcher’s park’ vs. ‘hitter’s park’ information, anyway?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/attend.shtml
And similar pages for every other team. Camden is playing very slightly as a pitcher’s park this year (and most years).
http://www.firstinning.com also shows Seattle playing as a hitter’s park for HR’s, same as Camden, and more so for RH hitters than LH hitters. I’m not sure I buy those numbers.
I’ll take pulchritude over rally fries eight says a week.
… eight days a week even …
First Inning says something similar to ESPN’s park factors page: Camden is right around the middle for runs and double, but is up near the top for homers. Plus it’s hot tonight. So the ball’s gonna fly out.
woot, keeping sherril in against righties.
Why isn’t Jones at least in as a defensive replacement?
Safeco played better for RH hitters in 2006 as well.
ya jones prolly woulda caught that foul ball too. he should be in now.
I’m always down for some pulchritude, yo.
234- You forgot that Vidro and Ral are power hitters also…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morrow hit 99 in this heat.
Why isn’t Jones at least in as a defensive replacement?
He is busy learning from the bench.
Few things crack me up more than analysts talking about “holds” as if they are a real thing.
beltre almost made another great play.
I need to check, but can you tell me if there’s a batter that Morrow HASN’T gone to a 3-2 count on?
ah morrow with another walk, his control is a mess.
I mean, this entire season to date.
I like Morrow, but this is a good time to bring in Putz.
Dammit I wish we could get through the eighth without using JJ.
No…this is Green time. Green time!
Bring in Putz!*
* and commence ill-thought-out comments about our closer shouldn’t pitch in the eighth inning. Sigh.
I hoped to never see Putz in a 8th inning again. Gotta do what you gotta do I guess.
245 only gibbens buddy
Time to Putz out the fire.
putz should get it done.
I’m okay with using JJ in the eighth every once in a while, but they’re really doing it a lot. JJ hasn’t been as good lately and I think using him so much is part of that.
shit dont get behind, hes sittin dead red
Could’ve saved JJ those first two pitches by having Morrow throw them.
is this a save situation?
Baltamores croud is really gettin loud jeez.
Is JJ getting squeezed as bad as it looks on MLB Gamecast? Seems to be painting the corner and not getting any love.
atta boy!
thank you.
..And now I can breate again.
OK, we can all breathe again …
261- Nope, they look outside.
259 – yes it is.
WOOO…
Maybe he’s not tired and I know he wasn’t going to be perfect forever, but you gotta admit, he hasn’t looked as dominant lately.
261 – no he missed on all the balls.
That out was massively important. The M’s used their best reliever. It’s not complex. Unless the O’s load the bases again in the ninth, there will be no moment in tonight’s game more crucial than the one JJ just got out of.
WTF! MLB.TV decided to have a stream error after 3-1. How did JJ get the out?
Yes – save situation
266- Ah ok. Thanks.
WHEW. ‘ball in play’ with the bases loaded is seriously suspenseful!
Time for save #33
267, 272-Thanks!
Vidro! 3-3 with 4 RBIs.
273 – doesnt it say “outs recorded”?
seeing tomorrow’s pitching match-up reminds me — when I think of opposing teams finding out they get to face HoRam, I always see a Tex Avery wolf
If Ibanez gets up and Parrish is still pitching Jones better get an AB. If they think Ral is hitting another HR off this guy they are just stupid. It is the perfect defensive sub/AB opportunity.
Wow Guillen killed another one to third with 4 outs to show for it, damn.
Is it just me or is Guillen not running out grounders on double plays, for crying out loud. It looks like he’s dogging it at the end of the play. Doesn’t he know you can’t assume the double play??
comon beltre i wanna see Jones hit a homer…
YES here we go AJ NOOOOOO WTF!!!!???
Even if Morrow only has 1 1/2 pitches and control problems I’d like to see him in the starting rotation at some point next year. We need another live arm in the rotation besides Felix.
Just want to say that Jones is not clearly better than either Raul or Vidro right now. Both of those guys are hitting extremely well this series. On the other hand, Broussard should play every game in place of Sexson.
Why were they running on that?
poor MacLaren – forced by Beltre to expose his stubborn badass decision making to the world again
[spelling]
Our 3rd base coach is a joke! What the hell is he thinking?
Yes, he got waved in. For some reason we’ll never know.
289: maybe he wanted dinner sooner.
Gosh. And he is validated again. Can Jones go back to Tacoma for some ABs once a week?
He was thinking there were two outs so it’s worth the gamble that they’ll make a bad relay throw. Not a terrible call in the situation.
On the replay, that was a great play by the Orioles. It took three perfect throws to nail Beltre.
I have to admit, though that was a stupid decision to send him, it was quite a pretty play – a flip, two throws and a tag.
291- Or to get out of the heat..
This coaching staff must cost this team 5 games a year easy.
It was a nice play, but I haven’t seen Markakis make a bad throw yet. What makes you think he was going to toss that one away. Plus its the O’s bullpen even Sexson can get hits off them.
why the hell would you put jones in left in the bottom of the ninth??
somethings i just dont understand
Get ‘em JJ.
[EXCESSIVE PENALTY WEEK]
nice to see the real JJ back
298 – the third base coach thought patterson was gonna make the throw then he flipped it to him.
299 – Er – for defense – think of Ibanez as the equivalent of Barry Bonds – well OK no
‘Atta boy J.J.!
M’s will have the wild card lead in a about an hour when the tigers and yankees lose.
Good night!
My real problem with Beltre getting sent home is they never learn. In a close game against the Angels in Sept we will see some jackass call like that and have our playoff dreams crushed.
M’s win!
I haven’t seen Garcia doing a bad job this year of directing traffic at third. This was purely situational. With a four run lead and two outs it was worth taking a shot at home.
Chill guys. It was a win.
When was the last time the M’s were in a playoff spot, anyone know? I’m thinking some time in the far distant past.
I love how people are saying Jones isn’t as good as Ibanez. Do people not understand what a small sample size is? He’s had less than 10 at bats and you really think his stats are an indicator of his talent?
If that was the case you could take Sexson’s last 15 at bats prior to this series and determine he’s batting .000. It doesn’t work that way, christ.
By the way, we’re tied for the lead in the wildcard after Detroit and the Yankees both finish get WHALLOPED by way worse teams.
Getting* I mean
310 we were actually in about the same spot last year.
What a game by Vidro. And it’s amazing how much better this team does with Ichiro hitting again. WC lead here we come!!!
314 – I wasn’t sure if we ever actually got there, my memory of it was we were a half/full game back (of the division I think) and ended up losing a game we should have won. I can’t honestly remember what I had for breakfast though so I’m sure you’re right.
316 – We were a ½ game out at one point last year during one of our games in July, but then we lost that game to fall 1 out and slid from there.
No matter how much you want it, Vidro isn’t getting bench. So that leaves Raul and AJ for LF. It’s going to be a platoon and the sooner you accept the sooner you will move on.
The M’s were a sub .500 team that was in the race only because none of the other teams in the division had a very good record either until the A’s started making a run in the second half. The M’s then lost 11 straight and erased any faint hope. The Mariners weren’t very good last year and there was never any realistic buzz about a playoff run.
307 – That play isn’t a good example. They were up by four, there were two out in the 8th. They took a gamble to try to tack on another run. It was probably the right decision, and I didn’t mind it much. Now if it was a one-run game, you’d hear something different from me.
Just wondering if anyone has taken a look at the overall standings and noted how well some teams are doing despite what their Pythagorean W-L should be (e.g. Arizona!) Seems all anyone talks about is how much the M’s are overachieving (and they are) but just thought it was kind of funny how no one talks about it with Milwaukee or Arizona (granted, I pretty much exclusively follow the M’s and just watch everyone elses scores, unless something really bad happens to the Yankees, then I enjoy reading about it:)
This day last year we were 11.5 back of the WC! It has been a great year.
Uh, no. I think people are well aware that Arizona has overachieved relative to W-L.
Today’s smackdown might push the Yankees’ pythag back below Boston’s. Lets see what the do against the Angels.
Hmm, Boston is -1 after 1.
Top of the ninth, up by four, LHP, planning on making the defensive switch in the bottom of the ninth:
Why didn’t Jones get the AB there?
Screw you, John McLaren, and SCREW YOU, M’s. It’s a miracle you’ve put a winning team on the field.
Here is to hoping that Ibanez and Vidro can continue to overcome all sabermetric limitations and probabilities like they did tonight.
Tonight’s Sabermetric Anti-Hero of the Game…
JOSE VIDRO!!!
Sabermetricians love home runs, come on now.
Vidro is hitting .402 since the All Star break with 14 RBIs in 23 games. Anyone who thinks he should be taken out of the lineup right now is nuts.
Enjoy tonight, tomorrow is HoRam away day…
14 RBI in 23 games, if any of those nutty people don’t know, is the baseline for awesomeness.
Guys, I don’t know how we missed this, but it just hit me after reading Mac’s comments about Adam Jones. Clearly they are just going to have him skip his playing days and move immediately into the position of Field Manager. This explains why both Grover and Mac have been so insistent that he sit on the bench and learn. These guys are way ahead of us.
#327
From a sabermetric perspective I was under the impression that it is unlikely for Vidro to hit a homerun and because of the fact that he hit a homerun and got 4 rbi’s makes him the unlikely hero of the game although the way Vidro is going lately its hard to consider him as the anti-hero of the game anymore.
Ugh, HoRammalammadingdong is tomorrow.
Oh well, at least we took 2/3.
14 RBI in 23 games…
Why, if he, er, produced, at that rate all year, he’d have over 100 RBIs!
If they played 165 games anyway.
Valle was talking about RBIs in the post-game show. Argh. Does anyone know of an effort to quantify percentage contributions to various stats from skill, situation, and luck? Seems like that might help if, when someone cites RBIs to judge perfoamace, you could whip out a “RBIs are only 28% skill” response.
Well, maybe it wouldn’t help. But it would be fun.
333: As bad as HoRam is, the O’s pitching is a mess. If we can hold them to 6 runs or less tomorrow, I think we have a good chance.
Excepting home runs, RBIs are inherently 0% skill
Other than the case of a home run, in order to get an RBI, there has to be a runner on base in front of you, something that you have absolutely no control over. So, RBI-HR is a useless number that says more about how many AB’s you got in which lineup hole than anything else.
Any chance Excessive Penalty Week can be extended into Excessive Penalty Month?
So you might say “Excepting home runs, RBIs are inherently 0% skill”
“14 RBI in 23 games, if any of those nutty people don’t know, is the baseline for awesomeness.”
Yeah, I’ll happily take that production in the two hole by a guy hitting .400+ who’s always on base these days. That’s especially true on a team that has a lot of guys struggling recently to hit pitchers not wearing an Orioles uniform.
I’m all for getting Adam Jones some PT and there was a time when benching Vidro to do it made sense, and it may again make sense in the future. But right now ain’t that time.
339 – Yes, but I don’t think we’re going to convince the unconvinced with opaque conjectures.
And with that home run today, our $8 million dollar DH increased his extra base hit total from 18 to 19, lifting him from a tie for 86th (of 89 qualified AL batters) to a tie for 84th (also among 89 qualifiers). Of course, that low total is offset by the excellent fielding skills, base stealing skills and high RBI totals our DH exhibits. Oh wait …
Off topic.
[deleted, off topic. also... in Excessive Penalty Week? really?]
[spelling, punctuation, ignorance, laziness... in EPW no less]
[name calling, being a jerk, EPW]
rsrobinson,
What several people are trying imply is that if you’re going to make an argument about anything, ever, mentioning RBIs is not going to get it done, unless your argument is “RBIs are pointless.” It’s a very bad statistic that proves very little about a player’s ability. Anyone can put up a string of RBIs when Ichiro is always on base in front of him.
Even when you cherry-pick the numbers, as you have here (14 RBIs in 23 games), and then you pretended that Vidro is capable of hitting like that for a full 162 games, you would still end up with only 98 or so RBIs. So even your tiny-sample-size example still shows that his RBI production is not good for a DH at all.
Here’s an RBI stat you might be interested in: Out of all DHs in the American League who have played in at least 100 games, Vidro has the fewest RBIs.
I don’t know what’s more frustrating. Seeing the M’s roll out a Jonesless, Broussardless lineup every day or reading 100 posts a day about the fact that Vidro has hit .400 over the last 20-some odd games…
I. Vidro sucks
II. Batting average by itself is a pretty lame statistic
III. Any time you cite the last 20-some games you have an elephant in the room by the name of sample size.
344: Well gee, feel free to use some stats to show me/us how our DH is worth the money we pay him. Vidro’s single-tastic season has underwhelmed virtually all of us but feel free to enlighten all of us as to why he’s such a huge boon to our offense – and any part of the argument to keep Adam Jones out of the lineup.
And my reference above was to 345 – BKM, you got some ‘splaining to do.
Excessive Penalty Week is awesome.
Vidro is not a very good DH. If he was a power hitter he would be knocking in Ichiro with every double. The problem is, Vidro doesn’t hit doubles, he hits bloop singles, and that’ll get Ichiro to third at best, most often just to second, decreasing his likelihood of scoring. RBI’s are a worthless stat, but it’s rather telling that Ichiro get’s on base more than anyone and Vidro consistently fails to drive him in on his own. It doesn’t have to happen all the time, but it should reasonable happen SOME of the time.
See why it’s a problem people?
What I would like to see is Vidro playing 1B (don’t need knees for that) Jones in LF and Ibanez DH. Whether that’s possible or not, I don’t know.
On another note, excessive penalty week is awesome.
I can’t believe people are still wasting bandwidth on Vidro weaknesses.
I agree with the Dave/USSM position that AJ should be in LF, Raul and Vidro should platoon at DH, and Ben and Richie should platoon at 1B.
If you want to put your best nine out there every day, that’s the only way it is going to happen.
Screw chemistry, and screw “veteranness.”
Well it seems like there’s 10 people who come along every week who need to be re-convinced.
Ooh, you guys. I think Broussard might not be back in the lineup for a while. From the AP’s Game Notes:
“Even when you cherry-pick the numbers, as you have here (14 RBIs in 23 games), and then you pretended that Vidro is capable of hitting like that for a full 162 games, you would still end up with only 98 or so RBIs. So even your tiny-sample-size example still shows that his RBI production is not good for a DH at all.”
My point is that Vidro is hitting very well and has been for a few weeks now. I didn’t say anything at all about him hitting like that all year. That’s your invention.
But it should be obvious to anyone with a pair of eyes that Vidro is seeing the ball well right now and driving it consistently for hits, so I don’t really care what numbers he put up in April or May or what he might do next month. When he cools off, then talk about benching him. But benching him while he’s hot is simply dumb.
#356
Gotta admit that seems fair to me and I never got the sense that you were saying Vidro could or would hit like this all year or anything like that.
“When he cools off, then talk about benching him. But benching him while he’s hot is simply dumb.”
So, I’m always curious when people say that… how do we know when he’s cooled off, exactly?
A hitless night?
Three hitless nights?
Batting Mendoza for a week?
You clearly think that Vidro is more likely to hit well tomorrow because of his hot streak… so how will we know when it’s over?
It seems to me like that’s the flip side of the “he’s due to break out” logic… put them together and you have perpetual suckiness.
“He’s due, can’t bench him now!”
“He’s hot, can’t bench him now!”
Rinse and repeat.
356: I hear you, and yes, you’re right, you didn’t say anything about him hitting like this all year. But I’m challenging the definition of “hitting very well” and saying that even if Vidro did hit like that all year, it still wouldn’t be that impressive for a DH. Fourteen RBIs in 23 games isn’t all that great, even if you think RBIs matter.
Vidro’s recent string of “good” hitting isn’t actually very good. It’s just better than the bad hitting that we’ve gotten so used to seeing. That’s what I’m trying to say.
To be honest, that WILL screw with “chemistry.” If managers bench people for reasons that don’t make sense to the players, they WILL get distracted and they WILL lose focus, as they wonder what they need to do to keep their jobs. Benching a player who is hitting well doesn’t make sense…benching a player who isn’t (ahem, Sexson) DOES.
(That said….there are all sorts of ways for Jones to get playing time that makes sense to the team and not get them wondering….management doesn’t have any excuses….)
Guys, we’ve won two in a row. Things are looking up. Raul has hit three homers in two days and Vidro is doing what he does very effectively for three weeks. Sexson still sucks, but what’s new? As we’ve seen the past two games, this is the team we are making the playoff push with with the exception of Sexson. AJ is NOT going to be a major factor this year unless we drop out of the race. As of now, he’s up to get his feet wet, but those of you hoping for him to be out there everyday will have to wait until next year. Sorry, but that’s just how this team is run for better or worse. Let’s just enjoy the playoff push, it’s fun!
Who can tell what the future holds?
“356: I hear you, and yes, you’re right, you didn’t say anything about him hitting like this all year. But I’m challenging the definition of “hitting very well†and saying that even if Vidro did hit like that all year, it still wouldn’t be that impressive for a DH. Fourteen RBIs in 23 games isn’t all that great, even if you think RBIs matter.”
Talking about what other DHs produce is irrelevant since the M’s don’t have David Ortiz sitting on the bench to plug in as a DH. What they have is some combination of Vidro, Ibanez, or Broussard, all of whom have various strengths and weaknesses and none of whom is going to light up the AL as a DH. You can’t compare Vidro to other DH’s, you have to compare him to what the M’s can replace him with in the lineup.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Jones would be a defensive upgrade in LF, and that means something. But there’s no guarantee whatsover that he’d be an offensive upgrade over either Ibanez or Vidro at this point in his career, and that also means something. Maybe he would, maybe he wouldn’t. He looked good in his first start, but in his second start against the Red Sox he looked very shaky in both the field and at the plate. I know that’s too small a sample to make any evaluation, but my point is that he’s an untested rookie. We simply don’t know.
Sorry, but I’m not at all convinced that taking either Vidro’s or Ibanez’s bat out of the lineup everyday, especially if Raul starts hitting like he has in the past, would justify the defensive upgrade in LF. It’s certainly not the foregone conclusion that some here seem to believe.
JeffS, again demanding that everyone discuss only the things he says are approved. Thanks, dude, but we’re gonna be all right without your guidance. We’ll enjoy things the way we do. It’s a game thread, and it’s the spot on the blog where we’re clear to talk about issues of the day.
I understand that you’re a positive guy. That’s nice. But that doesn’t preclude conversation that might (YIKES!) actually point out flaws in the team that can be fixed.
The team doing kinda well and things not completely sucking doesn’t give you carte blanche to issue an edict that all non-JeffS-approved topics are not to be discussed. Thinking critically doesn’t preclude one from enjoying his favorite baseball team.
Excepting home runs, RBIs are inherently 0% skill
Oh, they’re > 0% skill. If two players, Player A with a, say .487 SLG and Player B with a, say, .369 SLG, came up to bat an equal number of times with a man on second, you’d expect Adria…, I mean, player A to have more RBIs than Turb, er, I mean Player B. But how much of a component is that compared to the luck of having RISP coincide with hits? (and I threw in “situation” because hitting two batters behind Ichiro probably gives you more RISP at-bats than hitting two batters behind, ah, Player C (OBP .298), so that’s not just luck, that’s your manager making a choice to put you there).
I’m looking for something more granular than “mostly luck.” Maybe it’s a project for me.
AJ is NOT going to be a major factor this year unless we drop out of the race.
You may be exactly right here. Of course, not allowing AJ to be a factor will certainly increase the likelihood that the Mariners drop out of the race. I hope the smoke and mirrors continues, but there’s just no way you can run out Weaver and Ramirez for 40% of your starts and a lineup with Vidro, Sexson, Ibanez (vs LHP)/Guillen (vs RHP) at key offensive positions and keep up with the Jones (sorry, couldn’t resist). Add in Lopez and you have four easy outs in the lineup on a daily basis. I’m amazed that there are so many WORSE offenses in the American League.
I believe that’s the old can’t-project-from-minor-league performance argument. Not sure that’s a particularly good argument to be using.
And there’s the point that giving Ibanez more rest might be a CAUSE of improved hitting.
All you’re saying is that fear of the unknown is enough to deter you from trying to improve the team…which I’m not sure is a good strategy to employ with talent that’s not markedly superior. You’re dealing from a position of weakness; your approach, by necessity, HAS to be more risky.
JeffS has been added to the moderation queue. When we tell you guys to stop picking petty fights with each other, we mean it.
Seriously – the level of discussion on USSM has nosedived recently. It’s on you guys to do better. If you don’t, we’ll figure something out, even if the steps we have to take seem draconian to some of you.
Post smarter or go somewhere else. We’re not kidding.
You can’t compare Vidro to other DH’s, you have to compare him to what the M’s can replace him with in the lineup.
That’s true. I guess I just have more faith in Adam Jones’ upside than the already-proven mediocrity of Vidro. I imagine a DH platoon between Ibanez and Vidro, but I guess that’s not going to happen. *tear*
By the way…
Doesn’t HAVE to be an upgrade offensively, remember…he just has to be equivalent. Right now, that’s a .720 OPS (which is Ibanez’s OPS). Not sure if it’d be THAT hard to match that…
(Of course, if he’s on the bench, he’s not going to do it).
To me AJ playing left and batting is just more Fun To Watch than it is when Ibanez does it. The AJ FTW factor is %50 higher than that of Ibanez. That’s a stat that has to count in all this. The Broussard FTW factor is about %300 higher than Sexson’s. too.
Hey M’s…play AJ and Broussard and I’ll buy more tickets, ok? You’ll get more money! Is THAT a statistic you can understand the significance of?
“All you’re saying is that fear of the unknown is enough to deter you from trying to improve the team…which I’m not sure is a good strategy to employ with talent that’s not markedly superior. You’re dealing from a position of weakness; your approach, by necessity, HAS to be more risky.”
It’s not fear of the unknown, it’s making judgments based on what the team and players are producing right now. There’s more justification in taking risks when Vidro isn’t producing than when he’s hitting ropes all over the field.
That absolutely doesn’t mean that Jones should rot on the bench or that Vidro and Ibanez should have their lineup spots carved in stone. By all means try to find a combination that maximizes the Mariners’ chance to win, and that might well mean platooning Ibanez and Vidro at the DH and starting AJ in left. But you also have to accept that AJ may not necessarily produce better offensive numbers than the M’s would have gotten from playing both Ibanez and Vidro every day, and that’s more true if you replace Vidro while he’s hot or put Ibanez on the bench every other day just as it looks like his bat might be starting to come around.
I think I deleted six accounts today. Might have been higher.
w/r/t RBI: that’s entirely true, but both of those depend on having a runner set up for you. Any player will drive in between 0-100% of runners, right, based on their ability, luck, and so on and so forth. But they’re entirely dependent on the runners being there – the very premise of the question posits a situation out of the hitter’s control.
I understand the premise of the question, and what you want to measure. I just reject that it’s a valid premise, or a worthwhile exercise, since we already know that clutchiness doesn’t exist, and beyond that we already understand player performance well enough that it’s pointless to talk about it in the context of RBI.
Trying to convince people who aren’t listening, or smart, that they’re using the wrong tools doesn’t really interest me any more.
I was hoping Dave Sims would have waited for a bigger sample size of quality hitting from Ibañez before saying RAUL IBANEZ IS BACK! but I should’ve known better.
Last I checked, Camden Yards was a relatively neutral park, by no means a launchpad, so I have no idea aside from bad Orioles pitching- oh yeah huh.
So do McLaren’s ‘watch and learn’ comments and the Raul freakout mean that the assertion of Adam Jones platooning in LF and CF to get regular PT are no-go? Was Adam Jones Plan A scuttled that quickly?
Also, to entertain the dubious topic for a moment, RBI are purely a product of circumstance. Sure, it’s nice when X player gets a hit with RISP and knocks those runners in, but they have to get on base first, and X player has nothing to do with that.
The fact that you can make outs and still get RBI in some circumstances, or earn an RBI just by walking/getting HBP with the bases loaded illustrates that it is not a skill measure.
Re: RBIs and clutch hitting.
Pardon me for asking a stupid question, I’m new here.
Do we know for sure that clutch hitting does not exist? I was under the impression that there was a lot of debate about clutchiness still.
Ironically, chemistry is an actual science. Within the realm of sports, however, chemistry is just an immeasurable intangible that can’t be quantified by anyone.
Similarly, basic statistics such as batting average and runs batted in are inherently flawed, as those means of evaluating a given player’s production rely heavily on independent factors. In all honesty, it’s a pretty basic concept that should be understood by an individual of even mediocre intelligence.
Now, while I possess no more than a modicum of knowledge about peripheral statistics in baseball, I’m fairly well-versed concerning peripheral statistics in baseketball. As is noted in the following link, I prove that certain interior players in the NBA are unjustly undervalued due to the ignorance toward the importance of top-notch man-to-man, one-on-one low-post defense (e.g., P.J. Brown, Jason Collins, Jarron Collins, Radoslav Nesterovic, Joel Przybilla, et al.).
Smart arguments, dumb arguments, I love this place. I’m going to bed. M’s fans are lucky.
Later, y’all.
Trying to convince people who aren’t listening, or smart, that they’re using the wrong tools doesn’t really interest me any more.
Yeah, it gets frustrating. Though i did pose it as a tool to use in ridding the superstitious of their afliction, I was really thinking of it more as an exercise in understanding how the numbers break down, not just for RBIs, but for other stats as well. Maybe there’s some special insight to be had. I don’t know, might just be a lot of wasted Excel cycles too. But the “runs” stats really have a hold on old-guard folks all out of proportion to their real value.
I was reading a management (business management) book tonight, and it pointed out that poor (business) managers tend to only pay attention to financial data and make decisions based on just that data. But, financial data often has little direct relevance to the things the managers are trying to control. It’s too far removed from the actual operational productivity, and attempting to control operations based on financial data frequently just doesn’t work. Runs are the currency of baseball, and I think the effect is the same. ERA and RBIs are sacred cows because of the “R” component. The really funny thing was reading the list of systemic errors managers make when they don’t understand the difference between common cause and special cause variation:
-see trends were there are no trends
-fail to see trends where there are trends
-give credit to individuals for making improvements in performance when the individual had no control over the improvement
-doesn’t understand past performance and is not able to predict future performance
-does not understand the current system, it’s vulnerabilities, capabilities, or whether the system needs to be improved or replaced.
-having only an illusion of knowledge, they develop the equivalent of superstitions to guide their actions
Who knew Edward Deming and Bill James had so much in common?
BTW, speaking of common cause variation and Jose Vidro, his ISO before and after the ASB has been about the same (0.082 after, 0.076 before – now who was the fool that called that a power surge a few days ago? Oh, yeah, right. Me. anyway…). His OPS is like .140 points higher, but that is almost completely the result of a significant increase in BBs (accompanied by an ever bigger increase in K’s) and a spike in his BABIP. Here’s Vidro pre and post ASB:
(BB% / SO% / ISO / BABIP )
Pre: 8.1% / 7.7% / 0.076 / .308
Post: 11.0 % / 11.8% / 0.082 / .396
Vidro’s career BABIP is .315. His recent uptick in offensive production is almost completely the result of a BABIP 25% above his career average.
Do we know for sure that clutch hitting does not exist? I was under the impression that there was a lot of debate about clutchiness still.
Here’s the thing: “clutch” is a perception. People create clutch moments in their minds based on what they view as a tense or important situation in the game. Sure, one can say that a situation with a runners on second and third, two outs, and the bottom of the ninth and your team is behind by one is a “clutch” situation. I think it’s fairly obvious that if you came up with a hit there to drive in both runs, it would be viewed by just about everybody as a “clutch” hit.
The problem is those other situations when players contribute to the overall winning probability of the team. Are those situations clutch? Why or why not? A home run in the first inning that proves to be the only run scored in the game. Was it clutch? It won the game. Why isn’t it clutch? In those times, we would say that the pitcher was the one with the clutch performance because he pitched a shutout.
Too often “clutch” gets used as a way of creating sexiness, or artificially determining the most important outcomes of a game. In my first scenario, yeah, that’s the most important outcome of the game if you get a hit. But if you don’t, what about the other 26 out making chumps before you who didn’t come through in the clutch either? Should we dog the one guy because he came up in a tense situation, or did the entire team suck for allowing themselves to be beaten by one run?
I think clutch is one of those terms that needs to go out the window. I think it’s just better to stick to WPA and determine who was the biggest contributer and who was the biggest suckfest.
I think clutch hitting exists, just not in the way the mainstream media portrays it, I don’t think that the human element can be discounted. I also believe that the best clutch hitters are almost always the player we think are best hitters anyway. Just a hypothesis, no data.
The big thing about Ibanez that made people lose sight of why he still shouldn’t be in left field was his HR. Obviously there is no possible way to know if Adam Jones catches the ball for the 3rd out and Orioles are still at 1 run. But you could tell Ral took a bad route and was to slow to get to it. That fielding blunder caused 2 runs to score that should not have and his AB’s only created 1 run, simple math.
To put my two cents in on the clutch debate. If you look at it in a purely statistical way then there probably is no clutch, (380 Typical Idiot Fan) has it right when any pitch/hit is just as important then the next during a win/loss. But when Joe Carter hit that homerun in the WS it sure felt like a pressure situation and I could watch that clip over and over again. So my point is clutchiness is not a stat you can measure accurately but I love watching “clutch” moments in baseball history more then anything.
True every hit contributes equally to a win or a loss, but that can’t account for the large disparity between some batters BA and BA with runners in scoring position. Perhaps a small sample size can? I don’t know, but that disparity is the origin of the clutch debate.
If the argument is that “clutch” hitting depends somewhat on factors beyond the hitters control then discounting clutch hitting makes some sense. But if the argument is that there aren’t hitters who perform consistently better under pressure than others then it’s counterintuitive to what we know about human nature and how certain players perform (or don’t perform) under pressure in other sports.
When a guy like A-Rod, who’s probably the most talented hitter on the planet, consistently underperforms in the playoffs then at some point don’t you have to make a judgment about his ability to perform in the clutch, at least during the ramped up pressure of the post-season?
Small sample size.
384 – It’s perception and small sample sizes. This urban legend of arod CONSISTENTLY underperforming in the playoffs is bunk. He’s a career .280/.362/.485 hitter in the playoffs, which includes his last two postseason series (2 for 15 and 1 for 14, although he walked 6 times in 2005….so he had a .380 OBP). A few more series, his sample size will increase, and most likely his statistics as well.
The most overhyped clutch hitter, Jeter, is .314/.384/.479 in the playoffs (vs. .317/.389/.463 in the regular season), basically identical to his regular season stats.
He also has a larger sample size that can overcome his underperformances (like his .200/.333/.233 in the 2005 ALCS against Boston….funny how we NEVER hear about that).
385 – you beat me to the punch
Alright, so set me straight about what the argument being made is here then. Is it really being argued that, unlike every other sport or human activity, pressure has no impact on how baseball players perform and is merely a number crunching exercise provided the sample size is large enough?
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Given that you’re starting off from the wrong premises, I’m not sure that we can answer you.
But if the argument is that there aren’t hitters who perform consistently better under pressure than others then it’s counterintuitive to what we know about human nature and how certain players perform (or don’t perform) under pressure in other sports
I said this a while back, but every ML player is “clutch” as we mere mortals understand the term. Every ML at bat is a pressure situation. Guys who respond poorly to pressure do not make it to the majors. A guy who would fold under the pressure of Game 7 will fold under the pressure of fighting for his job in Spring Training. You can’t extrapolate what you know about high school ball to MLB.
“I said this a while back, but every ML player is “clutch†as we mere mortals understand the term. Every ML at bat is a pressure situation. Guys who respond poorly to pressure do not make it to the majors. A guy who would fold under the pressure of Game 7 will fold under the pressure of fighting for his job in Spring Training. You can’t extrapolate what you know about high school ball to MLB.”
I’m not extrapolating anything. The difference in the ability to perform under pressure may diminish at the higher levels but it never disappears completely.
Even at the elite levels, some athletes are able to focus more intensely the higher the stakes while others tend to tighten up. That doesn’t mean that one player will always succeed while the other always fails, but their ability to perform will increase or decrease depending on how well they handle pressure. To say that this doesn’t exist at the major league level is counterintuitive to human nature.
Are they really able to focus more intently? Or are you working from a small sample size and it is only your perception from the limited amount of information you have in those situations which makes it seem that way?
A players batting average for a year is accrued over the course of (more than likely) over 400 at bats. Most of those at bats do not happen in so called “clutch” situations. If someone, by chance, happens to get a hit in a vitally important situation they are labeled as good under pressure, while if someone fails to get a hit in the same situation they are labeled as chokers. But if each of these people had 400 at bats in important situations, you’d probably see the same averages in performance you always see from them. A players overall talent is more accurately measured by every additional AB they have, the smaller the sample size the less accurate it is going to be.
Here’s the link to Cramer’s “Do Clutch Hitter’s Exist” article. It’s probably the best starting place.
chi sf in 386 said: 384 – It’s perception and small sample sizes. This urban legend of arod CONSISTENTLY underperforming in the playoffs is bunk. He’s a career .280/.362/.485 hitter in the playoffs, which includes his last two postseason series (2 for 15 and 1 for 14, although he walked 6 times in 2005….so he had a .380 OBP). A few more series, his sample size will increase, and most likely his statistics as well.
This is currently under discussion at a Red Sox message board. Another poster wanted to dismiss ARod’s stats b/c of the “small sample size” argument. I pointed out that for 90% of current players who have postseason stats, you’ll find nothing BUT a small sample size — the exceptions are lifers from the Yankees and the Braves.
So, you either go with what you got, or you don’t get into the argument in the first place…
And my favorite way of looking at ARod’s postseason stats is this:
Before joining the Yankees (i.e., as a Mariner): .340/.375/.679
After joining the Yankees: .241/.354/.544