Pitcher Available

Dave · August 8, 2007 at 11:20 am · Filed Under Mariners 

The M’s need a starting pitcher. David Wells is reportedly going to be designated for assignment by the Padres later today.

Wells: 2.4 BB/G, 4.6 K/G, 41.7% GB%, 4.78 xFIP
Ramirez: 3.2 BB/G, 3.3 K/G, 45.6% GB%, 5.41 xFIP

Even accounting for the change in leagues, Wells is obviously a far better pitcher than Ho-Ram. The Padres are dumping him because he’s posted a 14.04 ERA in his last 4 starts, but a huge amount of that is due to an insane batting average on balls in play. This is an obvious buy low situation, as the problems that have plagued him the last couple of weeks won’t continue at the same rate.

Wells wants to play on the west coast. He won’t cost much and he should make it through waivers. He’ll make the team better.

Make it happen, Bill.


117 Responses to “Pitcher Available”

  1. JI on August 8th, 2007 3:33 pm

    Would Wells even come here? Last year he threatened to retire if he was traded to St. Louis instead of San Diego.

  2. terry on August 8th, 2007 3:34 pm

    A BABIP of .351 isn’t all that insane if the guy sucks and that’s the rub. If Wells has had a blip of four games, fine. If Wells has fallen off a cliff, then giving him 4-5 starts to regress to the mean could be a killer.

    I understand the notion of taking a flyer when you’re desperate, but I disagree that this is such an obvious move that there is no room for pause.

  3. Teej on August 8th, 2007 3:36 pm

    he should be considered about an average starter at worst.

    Ramirez is not an average starter.

  4. SethGrandpa on August 8th, 2007 3:36 pm

    Ha ha…I totally posted a pick up Wells thing on LL because I hadn’t checked over at USSM yet today. Good show Dave, great minds think alike. ;D

  5. Colm on August 8th, 2007 3:44 pm

    Terry – regression to the mean isn’t something that will necessarily be gradual. Dave contends that it’s mainly a stastical oddity that he’s been spanked as hard as he has over his past 4 starts.

    It’s not a sine wave. He could roll out on his next start and post a BABIP of .250 – it’s about as likley as his continuing to get slapped around.

    His peripheral stats suggest that he’ll be a better starter than HoRam ever single time he steps onto the mound for the rest of this season. Not massively better, but perhaps half a run per game. That could mean one full game in the standings come October – and that might be enough to make a difference.

  6. SpokaneMsFan on August 8th, 2007 3:47 pm

    99- Do you even read this site? You’re going to counter all the arguments here by pointing to ERA only as far as stats are concerned? Then somehow because Ho-Ram “showed promise,” whatever the heck that really means, he should be no worse than an average starter? WTF? I mean not only should I ask if you read this site, but have you watched Ho-Ram pitch? I will give you the league change can’t help him, but still.(Usually don’t like to be rude, but I’ve been all aboard the comment quality subject since Derek made it excessive penalty week.)

  7. msb on August 8th, 2007 3:47 pm

    speaking of wily vets

  8. Gomez on August 8th, 2007 3:50 pm

    Old David Wells with BP stuff > HoRam with BP stuff

    And as Dave said, watch the St Louis start and you’ll see a lot of seeing eye shots and bleeders in that 10 consecutive hit sequence.

    A waiver claim or trade on Wells here would not be a bad idea and would make this team a little bit better.

  9. Notor on August 8th, 2007 3:50 pm

    That would be a massive improvement, and for practically nothing! Do itttttttttttt.

  10. Colm on August 8th, 2007 3:58 pm

    Yes, I’d take a borderline has-been over a never-gonna-be most days of the week.

  11. DMZ on August 8th, 2007 4:00 pm

    Excessive penalty week!!!

  12. SpokaneMsFan on August 8th, 2007 4:06 pm

    DEREK KINSLER!!!!!!!!

  13. imfinkspa on August 8th, 2007 5:18 pm

    99 – Please let me know when in the past two years David Wells has been below average.

    His ERA in 2006 (only about 75 with 2/3 in Boston) was 4.42, good for an ERA+ 101 (almost exactly average). In 2005 (pitching in Boston) his ERA was 4.45, with an ERA+ of 99 (again, just about exactly league average). For what is worth, Wells posted a 3.73ERA/108 ERA+ in San Diego in ’04 and a 4.14ERA/106ERA+ in New York in 2003.

    While there may be such a thing as a league average era, it is really pretty useless for comparing past accomplishments without taking into account home ballpark, league, etc., thus measures such as ERA+.

    Of course past results are no guarantee of future performance, but component statistics can be a reasonable indicator, in which instance Wells is the better bet for the remainder of the this season than HoRam.

  14. terry on August 8th, 2007 6:19 pm

    #105: I wasn’t suggesting it would be gradual… I understand the concept.

    I was suggesting that waiting 4-5 games to actually figure out there won’t be any regression back to usefulness could really hurt their playoff chances….

  15. rsrobinson on August 8th, 2007 9:55 pm

    Right now if someone said the M’s were considering prying Gaylord Perry off of a barstool and propping him up on the mound I’d prefer that to watching another HoRam road start. So, yeah, I’d take a chance with David Wells.

  16. Jeff Nye on August 9th, 2007 8:18 am

    Personally, I’ll take the chance that David Wells is still a major league pitcher over HoRam who we know is no longer a major league pitcher.

  17. Ball4 on August 9th, 2007 12:44 pm

    No waiting…trade Rocko for Wells. It’s a good move. Playoff experience. If Weaver can trun it around, so can Wells.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.