Pitcher Available

Dave · August 8, 2007 at 11:20 am · Filed Under Mariners 

The M’s need a starting pitcher. David Wells is reportedly going to be designated for assignment by the Padres later today.

Wells: 2.4 BB/G, 4.6 K/G, 41.7% GB%, 4.78 xFIP
Ramirez: 3.2 BB/G, 3.3 K/G, 45.6% GB%, 5.41 xFIP

Even accounting for the change in leagues, Wells is obviously a far better pitcher than Ho-Ram. The Padres are dumping him because he’s posted a 14.04 ERA in his last 4 starts, but a huge amount of that is due to an insane batting average on balls in play. This is an obvious buy low situation, as the problems that have plagued him the last couple of weeks won’t continue at the same rate.

Wells wants to play on the west coast. He won’t cost much and he should make it through waivers. He’ll make the team better.

Make it happen, Bill.

Comments

117 Responses to “Pitcher Available”

  1. fetish on August 8th, 2007 11:24 am

    I am assuming DFA means the M’s would only pick-up the prorated major league minimum of his contract.

    On a different hand, how’re we “Gonna git Ramirez going” if he’s sitting on the bench? It’s not as if he’s a rookie who can simply learn by watching.

  2. RoninX on August 8th, 2007 11:28 am

    [wily]

  3. fetish on August 8th, 2007 11:30 am

    Corollary: If he won’t cost much and will make the team better, why should he make it through waivers?

  4. thefin190 on August 8th, 2007 11:32 am

    First thing i thought when i heard the news.

    2 – They trade away Rameriez or designate him for assignment. Huge dissapointment he is. Either that or just have him as a 6th starter at home only.

  5. thefin190 on August 8th, 2007 11:32 am

    i meant to comment to 1′s comment, not 2.

  6. scotje on August 8th, 2007 11:32 am

    #3: I would say because most teams in the playoff hunt already have better starting pitching than we do at the back end.

  7. G-Man on August 8th, 2007 11:33 am

    Add Wells and Drop HoRam? And mess with the chemistry of the team?

  8. jjb on August 8th, 2007 11:37 am

    Surely Jose Guillen will have more sour words for that rookie David Wells.

  9. bobaphat on August 8th, 2007 11:37 am

    You’re forgetting that Wells is a clubhouse cancer who would more than likely disrupt the chemistry of this team. I don’t know that this team could handle such a move after the whole Ellison debacle.

  10. scotje on August 8th, 2007 11:38 am

    My god, won’t someone please think of the children chemistry? ;)

  11. RoninX on August 8th, 2007 11:38 am

    #6 But the Yanks need help and it seems like Wells does a tour in NY every couple of years. But there was some acrimony there last time around, no?

    #4 I was thinking that any move regarding Ramirez would involve him going to Tacoma for a couple of weeks before getting called back up in Sept. as the additional reliever the media seems to be calling for. Any thoughts on that (though I’d personally rather see them give Mickolio a go).

  12. scotje on August 8th, 2007 11:39 am

    Darn….it ate my clever strikethrough tag. Oh well, just imagine there is a line through children…

  13. Bearman on August 8th, 2007 11:39 am

    [spelling]

  14. scotje on August 8th, 2007 11:42 am

    #11: Yeah, the Yankees are basically what kept me from saying “all” instead of “most”. They did just get Hughes back though…

  15. bob montgomery on August 8th, 2007 11:45 am

    Just wondering…Wells is pretty old. Is it possible that his “insane batting average on balls in play” troubles aren’t a fluke but are, instead, because he is no longer a MLB-quality pitcher?

    What are the scouts saying about Wells?

  16. Mike Snow on August 8th, 2007 11:47 am

    Good idea, except that now Ramirez will probably pick the most inconvenient possible time to suddenly look good (and maybe even actually win a road game), thus persuading management against an immediate upgrade. We’ve seen this before, with the performances that have kept Jones down in Tacoma or glued to the bench over the past month.

  17. Slippery Elmer on August 8th, 2007 11:56 am

    In a previous fan-life I’d have looked at that ERA and said “no thanks!” but now I’ve learned peripheral stats are a much better indicator of potential performance. Wells can’t be worse than Ho, so why not give him a shot?

    At the very least he’d make Vidro and Sherrill appear downright Weaverly by visual comparison, which might just boost team chemistry in some impalpable way.

  18. feingarden on August 8th, 2007 11:56 am

    Not a chance. Way too dramatic for Bavasi, way too radical. Won’t happen. (This is my attempt at reverse cosmology; by predicting it won’t happen I’m attempting to *cause* it to happen. I refer you doubters out there to my performance in various state and provincial lotteries over the past 15 years.)

  19. eponymous coward on August 8th, 2007 12:00 pm

    On a different hand, how’re we “Gonna git Ramirez going” if he’s sitting on the bench?

    I think we should “git Ramirez going” to, say, the waiver wire, and just admit we screwed up.

  20. Jack Howland on August 8th, 2007 12:02 pm

    Wells pitches in the most extreme pitching park in MLB which I think masks a little bit how bad he has been. On the road he is absolutely getting shelled. I don’t have a problem picking him up, but I don’t see a big improvement over Ho-Ram.

  21. Sammy on August 8th, 2007 12:04 pm

    Away from Petco, Wells has gotten lit up all year: .371/.417/.629. Since the all-star break, Wells is getting hit to the tune of .394/.434/.663. The BABIP has been absurdly high recently, but I think the slugging percentage shows that it’s not like he’s been giving up a bunch of bloop singles and seeing-eye grounders. Hitters are seeing his pitches and hammering them.

    What depresses me is that these numbers prove that Wells is a better pitcher than Horacio. Wells’ got nearly twice the K/BB ratio and Horacio’s numbers away from Safeco (.439/.500/.724) are actually worse than Wells’.

  22. mark s. on August 8th, 2007 12:06 pm

    Really? This so works for the M’s.
    Ageing veteran.
    Club house leadership.
    Intangibles.

    And I think he is a friend of Sexson.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/marksobba/413105843/in/set-72157594574385999/

  23. seank100 on August 8th, 2007 12:07 pm

    Dave,
    I don’t want you to have to define phrases like better, far better, and vastly better but Wells’ numbers just don’t look “far better” to me. Does 1 strikeout,

  24. Sammy on August 8th, 2007 12:09 pm

    Adden.: Though, come to think of it, the change in leagues might boost Wells’ numbers to Horacio-like levels. It’s worth investigating, but I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if Wells’ AL performance was indistinguishable from HoRam’s.

  25. Orlandu on August 8th, 2007 12:10 pm

    I’ve been a pretty big fan of David Wells for a while now, so I really hope they get him.

  26. Safeco Hobo on August 8th, 2007 12:10 pm

    Dave, what about Campillo?

    I realize he’s not a prospect, looks to be AAAA player, doesn’t last too long in games, doesn’t miss a lot of bats, and gives up a lot of hits. But he seems to be putting together a pretty decent season together down in Tacoma.

    Not to say he’s going to be the 1-2 puch with Felix, but he has to be atleast AS GOOD as Ho-Ram and Weaver. Am I missing something? I just can’t figure out why his name hasn’t been brought up to at least fill in down the stretch.

  27. seank100 on August 8th, 2007 12:12 pm

    Sorry about that last post.
    Dave,
    I don’t want you to have to define phrases like better, far better, and vastly better but Wells’ numbers just don’t look “far better” to me. Do the differences in walks, strikeouts, xFIP make that much difference over the next 52 games? And since you mentioned the NL to AL change, is there a rough “league factor” that you use to weight the differences in leagues?
    Thanks.

  28. Karen on August 8th, 2007 12:13 pm

    This move smacks of desperation.

    USSMariner desperation… :D

  29. Sammy on August 8th, 2007 12:13 pm

    26. Campillo is worthless to the M’s other than as organizational fodder. Robert Rohrberg(sp?) and Feierabend both have a better chance than Campillo of making any sort of positive impact if we end up calling someone up.

  30. Dave on August 8th, 2007 12:14 pm

    I am assuming DFA means the M’s would only pick-up the prorated major league minimum of his contract.

    It depends on how much interest he generates. If the Mariners claim him on waivers, and no other teams do, then the M’s have all the bargaining power and don’t have to surrender much. Probably a low level relief prospect or something.

    Corollary: If he won’t cost much and will make the team better, why should he make it through waivers?

    No other contender in baseball is handing Horacio Ramirez a rotation spot.

    You’re forgetting that Wells is a clubhouse cancer who would more than likely disrupt the chemistry of this team. I don’t know that this team could handle such a move after the whole Ellison debacle.

    Right, because teams with David Wells never win. Seriously, if your argument against improving the club contains the words chemistry, just don’t post here – we’re not the site for you.

    Just wondering…Wells is pretty old. Is it possible that his “insane batting average on balls in play” troubles aren’t a fluke but are, instead, because he is no longer a MLB-quality pitcher?

    It’s possible, but considering that his peripherals are essentially unchanged, it’s very unlikely. We had this same conversation about Jeff Weaver back in April, as I asserted all along that his ridiculous BABIP was bound to regress from it’s absurd levels. It obviously has. Apparently, people decided not to learn from that lesson though.

    I don’t have a problem picking him up, but I don’t see a big improvement over Ho-Ram.

    One is a lefty contact pitcher with good command – the other is a lefty contact pitcher without good command.

    Hitters are seeing his pitches and hammering them.

    Correlation is not causation. That his pitches have been getting hammered (which is arguable anyway – did you watch the St. Louis game?) does not mean they will continue to get hammered.

    I don’t want you to have to define phrases like better, far better, and vastly better but Wells’ numbers just don’t look “far better” to me.

    David Wells is closer in quality to Jarrod Washburn than he is to Horacio Ramirez. He is a major league quality 5th starter, while Horacio Ramirez is Triple-A fodder.

  31. natebracy on August 8th, 2007 12:15 pm

    I am not defending Ramirez by any means, but I’m not sure what is driving the ‘obviously a far better’ in the post. Could you rate the values you cite as, for instance: ‘horrible’, ‘good’, ‘below average, but acceptable’? I’m not fluent with the gradations of these rate stats yet.

  32. Sports on a Schtick on August 8th, 2007 12:27 pm

    Wells > Ramirez

    That’s all that matters to me.

  33. HamNasty on August 8th, 2007 12:28 pm

    If we pick up Wells and put him in HoRam spot after the start his next start that would get Wells about 11-12 starts. How much of an win impact would Wells have over HoRam during those starts?

  34. argh on August 8th, 2007 12:32 pm

    I would certainly miss the ‘Ho-Ram’ construction, but I guess we’ll just have to suck it up if it means another win or two by end of season.

  35. F-Rod on August 8th, 2007 12:36 pm

    There is really no reason not to pick him up if he is near free, unless they can get a bigger fish in a deal.

  36. Sammy on August 8th, 2007 12:38 pm

    Correlation is not causation. That his pitches have been getting hammered (which is arguable anyway – did you watch the St. Louis game?) does not mean they will continue to get hammered.

    I’m not sure how linking SLG% and BABIP is a correlational argument. You’re arguing that his BABIP is bound to regress, and I’m saying that his high Opp.SLG shows that suggest that it’s not all just bad luck. But, no, I haven’t seen any of his recent starts, and I’ll trust you if you have and think that his performance is bound to get better. He’s worth the shot, and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he’s not the HoRam magnitude disaster.

  37. Jack Howland on August 8th, 2007 12:42 pm

    I thought we agreed that Weaver’s BABIP early this season was less a result of luck than Weaver not being a MLB quality pitcher.

  38. drjeff on August 8th, 2007 12:45 pm

    I can’t even see the “only if he’s near-free” argument. He’s better than HoRam. If a couple of games is going to make a difference in a playoff race, and you can field someone who has even an incrementally better chance of winning those games, why would you NOT make the move?

    Bonus points because he’s fun to watch and so obviously pitches with his heart on his sleeve. It is a spectator sport, after all.

  39. MIfan on August 8th, 2007 12:50 pm

    33- I really don’t think that matters here. You can spit all the numbers you want between the two, but when we have a chance to make the playoffs, it comes down to who would you rather have on that mound…. Wells or Horam?

  40. lailaihei on August 8th, 2007 12:51 pm

    I’d honestly love to see the move. Even if it turns out to be just a slight upgrade… we still have 7 more games against the Angels. If he can make 2 of those starts, and turn one of them into a win that Ho-Ram wouldn’t have, then it’s a win right there.

  41. edclayton on August 8th, 2007 12:51 pm

    Does HoRam have minor league options left? Could we send him to Tacoma to make room for Wells, then bring him back up in September when the rosters expand? Also giving him another chance to earn a spot in the rotation next spring in the absence of Wells, Weaver, and others.

  42. Rumpelstiltskin on August 8th, 2007 12:52 pm

    Sammy, whether you believe it or not, a big part of slugging percentage is singles. I’m not sure when the last time you actually looked at the formula. There is indeed a strong correlation between BABIP and SLG%.

  43. Dave on August 8th, 2007 12:54 pm

    I’m not sure how linking SLG% and BABIP is a correlational argument.

    The inference of your post is pitches have been getting hammered (maybe true, maybe not, but again, besides the point for now), so therefore, Wells lack of talent is the reason they have been getting hammered. It’s results based analysis, and you guys know where I stand on that.

    You’re arguing that his BABIP is bound to regress, and I’m saying that his high Opp.SLG shows that suggest that it’s not all just bad luck.

    I’m arguing that it’s not sustainable. Maybe Wells has been throwing bad pitches, and hitters have been teeing off on him. That doesn’t mean they’ll continue to do so at the same rate. There’s luck involved with how often hitters destroy bad pitches too. Say his recent Mistake-To-Extra-Base-Hit rate is 95% (obviously, all hypothetically), but hitters usually only turn mistake pitches into extra base hits 80% of the time. That’s something that we should expect to regress even if he pitches exactly the same.

    Results based analysis leads to bad conclusions. Evalute the process instead.

    But, no, I haven’t seen any of his recent starts, and I’ll trust you if you have and think that his performance is bound to get better.

    I watched a decent chunk of his last start, where St. Louis got 10 consecutive hits. It was a dinker, an infield single, a ball that found a hole, another ball that found a hole, and then a couple of hard hit balls. He certainly wasn’t getting torched. It was typical Wells, throwing strikes for 4 innings and getting outs until St. Louis just racked together some lucky plays with a couple nice hits.

    I thought we agreed that Weaver’s BABIP early this season was less a result of luck than Weaver not being a MLB quality pitcher.

    If you go read through the old game threads, you’ll see that I was repeatedly telling people that his BABIP was bound to regress back to a .350-.380 range even if we accepted that his stuff was Triple-A quality now. The results were a combination of bad pitching and a lot of bad luck.

    The same could certainly be true of Wells – I’m not saying he’s pitched well recently, but there’s no way that he’s declined so quickly to be worse than Horacio Ramirez.

  44. Rumpelstiltskin on August 8th, 2007 12:54 pm

    FWIW, there was a recent interview on FSN where Wells said his favorite cities in baseball were NYC and Seattle. It was hard to tell if he was just sucking up to FSN and their viewers or not, but he seemed to genuinely like playing in Seattle.

  45. Rumpelstiltskin on August 8th, 2007 12:55 pm

    I challenge Rrrick Rrrizzs to find an obnoxious way to pronounce David Wells.

  46. gwangung on August 8th, 2007 12:56 pm

    Sammy, whether you believe it or not, a big part of slugging percentage is singles. I’m not sure when the last time you actually looked at the formula. There is indeed a strong correlation between BABIP and SLG%.

    Yah. What he’d need to do is look at isolated power.

  47. Mariner Fan in CO Exile on August 8th, 2007 12:59 pm

    “You’re forgetting that Wells is a clubhouse cancer who would more than likely disrupt the chemistry of this team. I don’t know that this team could handle such a move after the whole Ellison debacle.”

    Yeah, just look at how Jose Guillen has just destroyed the chemistry on the team given his “cancer in the clubhouse” rep. Give us a break. Winning is winning. These guys care more about a playoff spot than about how HoRam will feel about be displaced by somebody who can do his job better. Jones may have been a question mark in Vetrans’ minds, but Wells standing a better chance than HoRam to get back into form as our #5 guy? I don’t think too many people will complain if we give that one a shot.

  48. Bearman on August 8th, 2007 1:05 pm

    Okay if David Wells has made that statement if any truth then I say try to aquire him.Plug him in Ramirez’s spot see what happens.

    I agree his last 3 to 5 stats have exactly been stellar but then many of the hits have been singles.
    The Padres have INF D troubles this season and have committed more than their share of errors etc…
    However the M’s have one of most solid INF Ds in MLB and many of the balls that get by the Padre INF won’t get by out INF.

    Safeco Field isn’t a spacious as Petco but is just as pitcher friendly so if Wells can pitch solid ball the D will take care of the difference.

  49. fetish on August 8th, 2007 1:06 pm

    “Well-sey”, although that’d be a Niehism.

  50. Teej on August 8th, 2007 1:07 pm

    I question whether Wells even has a reputation as a “clubhouse cancer.” He’s been controversial, sure, but that’s with the media and umpires and what not, and that book that pissed off the Yankees front office. But everything I’ve seen points to him being a pretty good dude when it comes to his teammates.

  51. JeffS on August 8th, 2007 1:08 pm

    If it means getting Ho-Ram out of the rotation then I am all for it. But it cracks me up to think that we could have Wells and Guillen in the same clubhouse. Pretty soon our team is going to resemble the Indians in Major League. Hopefully minus a life-sized stand up of Howard Lincoln naked.

  52. Jeff Nye on August 8th, 2007 1:17 pm

    This is exactly the sort of market situation that smart GMs exploit.

    Are you a smart GM, Mr. Bavasi?

  53. msb on August 8th, 2007 1:20 pm

    per Rosenthal: “According to a major-league source, Wells, 44, will be designated for assignment and simultaneously placed on release waivers, giving the Padres three days to trade him. Wells is owed just slightly under $1 million for the rest of the season and is earning approximately $170,000 per start in incentive bonuses.”

    when looking for this info, I also found this note:

    “In an attempt to jump start his offense, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa decided to bat pitcher Joel Pineiro eighth for Saturday’s 12-1 loss to the Nationals. Second baseman Adam Kennedy batted ninth.”

  54. Spanky on August 8th, 2007 1:22 pm

    Dave said: If the Mariners claim him on waivers, and no other teams do, then the M’s have all the bargaining power and don’t have to surrender much. Probably a low level relief prospect or something.

    Mmmm…sounds like a nice swap of David Wells for Horacio Ramirez!!!

  55. Kunkoh on August 8th, 2007 1:23 pm

    This seems like a common sense move.

    He should be available because pretty much every team in contention already has better pitching (even in the 5 slot). He certainly can’t be worse than Ramirez (or Weaver for that matter). And better yet, it should cost us almost nothing to “try him out”.

    If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work; but it shouldn’t hurt us any more than trotting out Ramirez every five days. If it does work, then the M’s (Bill) looks like a genius. About as win, win, win as you can get.

    That being said, what are the chances that we will do this, and wouldn’t that mean releasing Ramirez (and admitting it was a bad trade)?

  56. Karen on August 8th, 2007 1:23 pm

    Seeing Wells in a Mariners uniform will bring back memories of another couple of whale-size pitchers who graced the colors: Gaylord Perry and Chris Bosio. From what I’ve read about Wells, he’s just about as cunning as those two.

    But let’s not hold our breath. The Royals or the Rangers will probably claim him…

  57. msb on August 8th, 2007 1:26 pm

    Well-sey”, although that’d be a Niehism.

    oh, and just a reminder. Niehaus does not make up name-related nicknames. He will use the ones already in use in the clubhouse, but seems to favor the descriptive, such as ‘The Big Michigander’.

  58. PositivePaul on August 8th, 2007 1:27 pm

    Yeah, veteran presence is a term that’s highly overrated around these parts, but seriously, if in the off chance that the M’s do make the playoffs, I’d certainly rather have Wells out there pitching and in the clubhouse ‘leading’ than a lot of other guys that the M’s might pick up off waivers.

    And based on our convo with him last Thursday, I don’t think it’s harming anything to say that Bavasi himself would probably like having Wells’ veteran playoff and championship experience in the Mariners’ arsenal.

    As weird as it may seem, Wells could potentially be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, in that his addition helps tilt the delicate balance between the M’s making and missing the playoffs.

    He’d sure help them win in a tug-’o-war contest…

  59. msb on August 8th, 2007 1:28 pm

    the DBacks have been hogging the NL waiver wire of late ….

  60. Tek Jansen on August 8th, 2007 1:29 pm

    Dave, I think your idea has merits. What do you think the chances of it happening are? I give it, at most, 8%.

  61. bobaphat on August 8th, 2007 1:31 pm

    Regarding my earlier “clubhouse cancer” remark, I thought that my sarcasm was clear as it was in several of the posts that came before it. Apparently it was not, and I apologize.

  62. MarinerDan on August 8th, 2007 1:33 pm

    I wonder if Wells’ reputation as a bit of a maverick will scare off the M’s management, who seem to prefer most “straight-laced” veteran presences (e.g., Raul Ibanez). Then again, they did sign hothead Jose Guillen…

  63. Zero Gravitas on August 8th, 2007 1:39 pm

    I think people are being a little overanalytical here in looking for a downside to this potential move. It’s David Wells vs Horacio Ramirez- who do you want taking up a roster spot for a stretch run to the playoffs? I can’t see any reasonable downside at all. And I also agree that Wells would probably be thrilled to land in Seattle in the middle of a totally winnable pennant race. I don’t think it’s too wacky a move for Bavasi either – dude’s available on waivers so he’ll be cheap, and we’ve heard from Bavasi already that payroll isn’t the issue if an upgrade is available at SP. Low risk medium reward – why not?

    Random David Wells anecdote – I recall seeing him pitch at Safeco years ago (think it was 2001 when he was with the CWS), and Ichiro led off the game with a hit, stole two bases and ended up scoring in the first inning. And I read that after the game Wells went to the clubhouse and had Ichiro give him a signed bat or some kind of memento. I think it was the first time he had faced Ichiro. Anyway he was very complimentary about Ichiro, which made me think he’s a decent dude. Maybe I just tend to automatically like anybody who likes Ichiro.

  64. HamNasty on August 8th, 2007 1:40 pm

    Releasing HoRam wouldn’t be admitting anything. Everyone in the world knows it was a bad trade, no one is fooled by now. If they can make a move go for it. The worst that can happen is he is as bad as HoRam or any of the guys in AAA.

  65. PepsiJrMariner on August 8th, 2007 1:47 pm

    With our luck, they’d sign Wells, send Adam Jones back to the minors for more “seasoning”, and let Ho-Ram pitch high leverage situations in the 7th & 8th (since Green, Morrow, Sherrill, et. al. are clearly inadequate). I’m not bitter, right?

    This would really make me happy. Here’s to hope.

  66. eponymous coward on August 8th, 2007 1:49 pm

    Then again, they did sign hothead Jose Guillen…

    And Carl Everett.

  67. Bremerton guy on August 8th, 2007 1:59 pm

    Does Horacio have any minor league options available?

  68. Steve T on August 8th, 2007 2:00 pm

    Bobaphat, I assumed you were being funny, and I’m surprised that no one else got that. I mean really, “that whole Ellison debacle”? That’s good stuff. Don’t tell me we’re going to have to start using smileys around here.

  69. Steve T on August 8th, 2007 2:03 pm

    I think the point is, Wells doesn’t have to be a million runs better than HoRam to make this worth a shot. He just has to be a few. No one’s suggesting that Wells is going to singlehandedly win the pennant for us, or that it’s not perfectly possible that 14.04 is in fact the new Wells. But frankly HoRam’s a better bet to put up a 14.04 for the rest of the season than Wells is. It’s a flyer. We’re not talking about shaking the world here.

  70. JJD on August 8th, 2007 2:05 pm

    Hey Dave –

    Your “smackdown” replies seemed a lot tougher before I heard you talk on the radio. :)

    ANYTHING that eliminates future HoRam starts is a GOOD idea. (Just about, anyway.)

  71. robertenney on August 8th, 2007 2:09 pm

    #45

    How about ” Deeeeeviiiddd Wheeels!”

  72. Evan on August 8th, 2007 2:15 pm

    The Jays are apparently trying to make Josh Towers available. He’d be a nice upgrade on Ho as well.

    Pitching options abound. If this team is still letting Ho start every 5 games come September, they’re just not trying.

  73. IdahoInvader on August 8th, 2007 2:18 pm

    Lets see…we can try someone else like Wells

    Or…

    We can just send HoRam out for his regular turns on the road, that way the opposition can have sort of a bye, like in football.

  74. Borat4President on August 8th, 2007 2:32 pm

    70- HA! I was thinking the same thing. The whole puberty voice cracking thing sort of took away the fire. I don’t know how anyone could have figured comment 9 for anything other than sarcasm. I’d say the corresponding rudeness was way uncalled for.

  75. scraps on August 8th, 2007 2:47 pm

    Horacio’s numbers away from Safeco (.439/.500/.724)

    I stared at this for a full minute. So, against Ramirez on the road, the average hitter is better than Ted Williams in his prime.

  76. Mousse on August 8th, 2007 2:48 pm

    Here we go again. Today’s lineup…

    1 – Ichiro
    2 – Turbo
    3 – Guillen
    4 – Beltre
    5 – Ibanez
    6 – Sexson
    7 – Kenji
    8 – Lopez
    9 – Yuni

  77. SpokaneMsFan on August 8th, 2007 2:49 pm

    I FREAKING HATE MCLAREN!

  78. vern on August 8th, 2007 2:50 pm

    I would enjoy the opportunity to root for a man who has had gout.

  79. robertenney on August 8th, 2007 2:51 pm

    But raul hit 2 homeruns yesterday……he’s out of his slump! yay! we can expect him to hit 20 from now til the end of the season! woohoo!

  80. scraps on August 8th, 2007 2:52 pm

    I’d say the corresponding rudeness was way uncalled for.

    Dave can say what he wants how he wants, and it’s presumptuous for anyone to berate him for his tone to a third party. This isn’t a board, a hangout, a forum, or a public hall. It’s his place, and we’re free to leave if we don’t like the way he talks.

  81. kenshabby on August 8th, 2007 2:53 pm

    61 – I got your intent right away, but then again I have one of the most finely tuned sarcasm/sardonicism/facetiousness detectors out there. I had ample chance to hone it during my previous two relationships.

    77 – Just wait. Watch the magic of yesterday repeat itself.

  82. mcfly on August 8th, 2007 2:53 pm

    He even looks like he belongs here.

    Bring Back that mid-90s goatee to Seattle.

    And, I also just want to say Boomer.

  83. zsiron on August 8th, 2007 2:56 pm

    Lifted from this article… no mention of the Mariners, as usual: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2966580

    SAN DIEGO — David Wells is finished with his hometown San Diego Padres, and it’s possible that the career of one of baseball’s most boisterous characters could be over.

    Clifton says Wells is “absolutely interested” in pitching for a contending team, going forward.

    Wells could pitch elsewhere this season, depending on whether he clears waivers, is traded to a contending team or is released and signs with a contender. Two teams in need of starting pitching now are actually division rivals of the Padres — the Los Angeles Dodgers (who are coping with injuries to the likes of Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf) and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

  84. Adam S on August 8th, 2007 2:58 pm

    I’m all for trying ANYTHING to upgrade the back of the rotation. But we have to give serious consideration that Wells is simply done as a major league pitcher.

    He is 44 years old, certainly an age where falling off the table in effectiveness is possible. In five starts since the all-star break he has 22.2 IP, 8 BB, 8 K. Going back nine starts, he’s 44.2 IP, 18 BB, 22 K. Sure there’s selective/arbitrary sampling and small sample size effects in there. But not only is he a far cry from the 3:1 K/BB guy he’s been for his career, but I don’t really think he’s the 2:1 pitcher he’s been for the season as a whole. I can’t point to any physical or mechanical reason, aside from being very old, but I think the 1:1 or 1.5:1 K/BB is who David Wells is at this point. What’s amazing is that that’s STILL makes him better than HoRam.

    So I’d guess there’s a 70% probability this would be a good move for the Mariners and about a 10% chance they actually do it.

  85. aaron c. on August 8th, 2007 3:01 pm

    These guys write a blog packed with insanely high quality analysis and writing. They sacrifice a lot of time, energy and money doing so. They offer it to the general public FOR FREE. Why some people think a proper way of showing appreciation for this is to make fun of the authors and/or flip out at the tiniest perceived slight is beyond me.

  86. Evan on August 8th, 2007 3:03 pm

    I stared at this for a full minute. So, against Ramirez on the road, the average hitter is better than Ted Williams in his prime.

    Against Ramirez on the road, the average hitter is roughly equivalent to the 2003 version of Barry Bonds. You know, the one who hit 45 homeruns and drew 148 walks. That guy.

    Or, alternately, roughly equivalent to the 1926 version of Babe Ruth. He hit 47 homeruns and drew 144 walks. Do we see a pattern forming?

  87. gwangung on August 8th, 2007 3:04 pm

    What’s amazing is that that’s STILL makes him better than HoRam.

    Yeah. That’s the thing….

  88. Slippery Elmer on August 8th, 2007 3:04 pm

    The Groz just mentioned this post, which apparently convinced him that the M’s should take a flier on Wells. He admitted, though, that he didn’t really understand Dave’s statistical rationale. One step at a time, Grozzy.

  89. terry on August 8th, 2007 3:04 pm

    Horacio stinks….no doubt.

    That said, there is more to Wells’ struggles the last fours starts than just a high BABIP. During that stretch his peripherals have went south (BB/9: 3.89; K/9: 3.33) compared to his previous 18 starts ((BB/9: 2.34; K/9: 5.14) while he’s given up 7 of his 17 homers.

    He’s got lousy home/road splits (6 of Horacio’s final ten staarts are scheduled for the road I believe) and would get dinged by having to face the DH. Wells has the chance to make the Ms better it just probably wouldn’t be by that much. Argue that I don’t understand baseball but I’m nonplussed by the notion that a 44 year old’s BABIP will regress to the mean in time for the Ms to ride his arm in a pennant chase especially since there may be more going on than simple bad luck.

  90. Evan on August 8th, 2007 3:08 pm

    We’d hardly be riding his arm. We’re talking about a marginal improvement, but the team should chase those marginal improvements.

  91. SpokaneMsFan on August 8th, 2007 3:10 pm

    81: The fact the Orioles bullpen is bad enough to overcome any managerial incompetence is not magic

  92. HamNasty on August 8th, 2007 3:13 pm

    Dave-
    If HoRam’s DER of .641 was the same as Wells at .666 and his LOB% 62.1% was also the same at 70.2% would that make them about the same level pitcher?
    As far as I understand those two stats are not 100% repeatable skills and rely on the defense and other factors. I understand a better pitcher will have a higher LOB% due to the fact he gives up less hits, is that the case here?

    I understand what the stats mean just not how they all correlate with each other in some cases.

  93. The Ancient Mariner on August 8th, 2007 3:17 pm

    I think some folks who post on this blog are just a wee bit prone to paralysis by analysis. Wells would cost us no significant money; he would cost us no talent; and he would most likely be a better fifth starter than the one we have now. There’s a reasonable chance he’d be worth an extra win or two at a point where an extra win or two could be the difference between playoffs and going home. What’s more, he’s the sort of familiar veteran name with postseason success and a championship ring that our FO likes, which means there’s a good chance they actually go for him. All of which is to say, though it’s hardly a guaranteed big win, it’s certainly a no-brainer.

  94. gwangung on August 8th, 2007 3:23 pm

    Well, add to that the psychological lift (small as it may) it would give to the team. I think the team would feel a bigger lift from an improved performance from Wells than it would an equivalent performance from Ho-Ram.

    Given the absolutely negligible cost Wells probably represents, this is indeed a no-brainer.

  95. Evan on August 8th, 2007 3:25 pm

    Safeco Field isn’t a spacious as Petco but is just as pitcher friendly so if Wells can pitch solid ball the D will take care of the difference.
    Safeco also inflates strikeout numbers (more than any other park), thus improving Boomer’s ratios.

    I want Boomer.

  96. kenshabby on August 8th, 2007 3:27 pm

    Maybe it wouldn’t be too late for a (very) late-season David Wells bobblebody promotion night. Or a David Wells Hog Wildâ„¢ promotion, featuring a mini Wells holding a mini beer mug while riding a mini Harley.

  97. marc w on August 8th, 2007 3:29 pm

    “I think people are being a little overanalytical here”
    Umm, isn’t that kinda….what we do here?

    Well put terry/89. He’s not the same pitcher he was, and that’s not results-based analysis, it’s looking at his skillset. His GB rate is down, his walks are up and he’s giving up plenty of HRs despite pitching in a park that severely suppresses them. It’s just difficult to take that and his road splits and project a lot of regression to the mean given the league change.
    That it’s still probably a better move than HoRam says a lot more about the rotation’s construction than it does about Boomer Wells. I don’t think anyone here, me, sammy, terry would *hate* this move, it’s just that I think we’ve got to be careful about assuming 1-2 wins of improvement. How close is Cha Baek, by the way?

  98. Sammy on August 8th, 2007 3:29 pm

    Went to lunch, so I’m a bit late in replying, but, basically, you’re all right. I should have been looking at IsoSLG instead. Dave, all your arguments are sound and I agree.

    Some more numbers:

    Wells home BABIP: .310
    Ramirez home BABIP: .299

    Wells away BABIP: .382
    Ramirez away BABIP: .464

    Wells OppIsoSLG away from Petco: .258
    Ramirez’ OppIsoSLG away from Safeco: .285

    Wells LD%: 20.0%
    Ramirez LD%: 21.9%

    I have to think Horacio is due for some good regression away and some bad regression at home. I don’t think there’s anyway you can say we’re not better off with Wells.

  99. Ron Stevens on August 8th, 2007 3:30 pm

    You’re picking Wells over
    Ramirez,using a small sample;Wells has had two previous years of bellow league average e.r.a.This year he is having a horrible year,and he’s 44 yrs. old;my
    assumption is that he is washed up.In addition pitching in the N.L. is an advantage for a pitcher;as the regular eight hitting lineups are weaker than the A.L. Meanwhile Ramirez
    showed promise his first two years in the bigs;he should be considered about an average starter at worst.

  100. msb on August 8th, 2007 3:32 pm

    Maybe it wouldn’t be too late for a (very) late-season David Wells bobblebody promotion night. Or a David Wells Hog Wild™ promotion, featuring a mini Wells holding a mini beer mug while riding a mini Harley.

    hey! it’s already a match made in (hog) heaven.

  101. JI on August 8th, 2007 3:33 pm

    Would Wells even come here? Last year he threatened to retire if he was traded to St. Louis instead of San Diego.

  102. terry on August 8th, 2007 3:34 pm

    A BABIP of .351 isn’t all that insane if the guy sucks and that’s the rub. If Wells has had a blip of four games, fine. If Wells has fallen off a cliff, then giving him 4-5 starts to regress to the mean could be a killer.

    I understand the notion of taking a flyer when you’re desperate, but I disagree that this is such an obvious move that there is no room for pause.

  103. Teej on August 8th, 2007 3:36 pm

    he should be considered about an average starter at worst.

    Ramirez is not an average starter.

  104. SethGrandpa on August 8th, 2007 3:36 pm

    Ha ha…I totally posted a pick up Wells thing on LL because I hadn’t checked over at USSM yet today. Good show Dave, great minds think alike. ;D

  105. Colm on August 8th, 2007 3:44 pm

    Terry – regression to the mean isn’t something that will necessarily be gradual. Dave contends that it’s mainly a stastical oddity that he’s been spanked as hard as he has over his past 4 starts.

    It’s not a sine wave. He could roll out on his next start and post a BABIP of .250 – it’s about as likley as his continuing to get slapped around.

    His peripheral stats suggest that he’ll be a better starter than HoRam ever single time he steps onto the mound for the rest of this season. Not massively better, but perhaps half a run per game. That could mean one full game in the standings come October – and that might be enough to make a difference.

  106. SpokaneMsFan on August 8th, 2007 3:47 pm

    99- Do you even read this site? You’re going to counter all the arguments here by pointing to ERA only as far as stats are concerned? Then somehow because Ho-Ram “showed promise,” whatever the heck that really means, he should be no worse than an average starter? WTF? I mean not only should I ask if you read this site, but have you watched Ho-Ram pitch? I will give you the league change can’t help him, but still.(Usually don’t like to be rude, but I’ve been all aboard the comment quality subject since Derek made it excessive penalty week.)

  107. msb on August 8th, 2007 3:47 pm

    speaking of wily vets

  108. Gomez on August 8th, 2007 3:50 pm

    Old David Wells with BP stuff > HoRam with BP stuff

    And as Dave said, watch the St Louis start and you’ll see a lot of seeing eye shots and bleeders in that 10 consecutive hit sequence.

    A waiver claim or trade on Wells here would not be a bad idea and would make this team a little bit better.

  109. Notor on August 8th, 2007 3:50 pm

    That would be a massive improvement, and for practically nothing! Do itttttttttttt.

  110. Colm on August 8th, 2007 3:58 pm

    Yes, I’d take a borderline has-been over a never-gonna-be most days of the week.

  111. DMZ on August 8th, 2007 4:00 pm

    Excessive penalty week!!!

  112. SpokaneMsFan on August 8th, 2007 4:06 pm

    DEREK KINSLER!!!!!!!!

  113. imfinkspa on August 8th, 2007 5:18 pm

    99 – Please let me know when in the past two years David Wells has been below average.

    His ERA in 2006 (only about 75 with 2/3 in Boston) was 4.42, good for an ERA+ 101 (almost exactly average). In 2005 (pitching in Boston) his ERA was 4.45, with an ERA+ of 99 (again, just about exactly league average). For what is worth, Wells posted a 3.73ERA/108 ERA+ in San Diego in ’04 and a 4.14ERA/106ERA+ in New York in 2003.

    While there may be such a thing as a league average era, it is really pretty useless for comparing past accomplishments without taking into account home ballpark, league, etc., thus measures such as ERA+.

    Of course past results are no guarantee of future performance, but component statistics can be a reasonable indicator, in which instance Wells is the better bet for the remainder of the this season than HoRam.

  114. terry on August 8th, 2007 6:19 pm

    #105: I wasn’t suggesting it would be gradual… I understand the concept.

    I was suggesting that waiting 4-5 games to actually figure out there won’t be any regression back to usefulness could really hurt their playoff chances….

  115. rsrobinson on August 8th, 2007 9:55 pm

    Right now if someone said the M’s were considering prying Gaylord Perry off of a barstool and propping him up on the mound I’d prefer that to watching another HoRam road start. So, yeah, I’d take a chance with David Wells.

  116. Jeff Nye on August 9th, 2007 8:18 am

    Personally, I’ll take the chance that David Wells is still a major league pitcher over HoRam who we know is no longer a major league pitcher.

  117. Ball4 on August 9th, 2007 12:44 pm

    No waiting…trade Rocko for Wells. It’s a good move. Playoff experience. If Weaver can trun it around, so can Wells.

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