Game 116, Twins at Mariners
Dave · August 13, 2007 at 6:12 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Hernandez vs Santana, 7:05 pm.
Happy Super Awesome First In A Lifetime Great Venezuelan Pitching Matchup Day.
Felix vs Johan. The current Venezuelan ace against the future Venezuelan ace. The best pitcher alive against the guy with the best arm on the planet. This should be epic.
As such, I refuse to acknowledge the defense John McLaren has put behind Felix. It’s some kind of August 13th joke, and we’ll find out the real line-up just before gametime. No one’s stupid enough to bench Beltre and Lopez against a left-hander with the most dominant groundball guy on the staff pitching, right? Right?
Whatever. Go Felix.
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I couldn’t believe it when I first heard it either. WFB in place of Beltre? What?
But on the plus side, AJ is in left!
That makes a chill run through my bones.
Go Felix, Go M’s!
Only thing I can think of is that Beltre’s hurt or sick…
If the lineup you are describing is true I will jump in with both feet in the McLaren is an idiot bandwagon. Up until this point I’d been giving him a break because of the circumstances in which he got the job. But this is inexcusable!
I will be at the game! Go Felix.
No, McLaren is definitely that stupid.
I would sure like to know the logic behind sitting Beltre at least, I can’t think of one good reason. At least with Vidro you can see what he’s thinking (even though he’s wrong and undervaluating defense as usual) by keeping his “hot” bats (Raul and Ibanez) in the lineup while still playing Jones.
I’ll gather the pitchforks and torches for after the infield defense costs us the game. Like we didn’t have enough of a problem with Santana on the mound, now our manager is shooting us in the leg before we even get on the field.
With McLaren’s logic here, I imagine we’ll see Ibanez starting in center for Washburn’s next start.
Full lineup for those who haven’t seen it:
CF Ichiro
2B Jose Vidro
RF Jose Guillen
DH Raul Ibanez
1B Richie Sexson
C Kenji Johjima
LF Adam Jones
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
3B Willie Bloomquist
RHP Felix Hernandez
Santana vs. Hernandez should be an exciting match-up. Felix will certainly be pumped up to face his countryman–hopefully not too pumped.
Err sorry, I meant Raul and Vidro in post #5.
Is there really that big a dropoff from Beltre to Bloomquist?
/sarcastic rhetorical question
Top 5 Reasons For John McLaren’s Otherwise Inexplicable Lineup Tonight
5. Late in life onset dyslexia confusing his righty-lefty matchups.
4. Non-refundable Maui tickets for first week in October.
3. Before professional managing career, was Mrs. Bloomquist’s postman approximately 30 years, 9 months ago.
2. Got an inside tip from “good friend†former NBA referee Tim Donaghy.
1. Devout Muslim; doesn’t want Mariners to play during holy month of Ramadan.
re 10
problably not when it comes to hotness of spouse…but, still…
Correct me if I’m wrong, but Bloomquist at 3B isn’t too bad, is it? He’s no Beltre, but it could be much worse.
However: 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. 2B Jose Vidro. No matter how many times I say it, it doesn’t make sense. 2B Jose Vidro.
I guess Ibanez’s performance yesterday showed McLaren that Raul is now “due” to break out against a lefty, since there is no way he could do worse, could he?
Somebody over at Bakers blog said it looked like a speed tactic — a thinking that they’d try to win this game with small ball.
Doesn’t make it intelligent, but it does present a fairly viable explanation for this otherwise unexplainable lineup.
WFB. The ignitor. Ignite it, baby. All I ask of him is to get on base twice. And don’t F anything up at the hot corner. Hold the fort, Will. Be the MLB equivalent of what they call a crappy but somehow passable QB in the NFL, “Game Manager,” ala Dilfer in TB’s superbowl run. 2-4 willie. You can do it…
re 15….
Um, Turbo?
And isn’t Beltre not too bad at the speed game himself?
15 – Put WFB at 1st, 2nd, catcher anywhere but in place of one of the hottest guys on the team.
WFB is not anything close to Beltre at 3rd. I guess you could do worse by putting Vidro there or something but why handicap yourself even a little against groundballs when you’ve got a groundball pitcher on the mound?
I’m not someone who rags on Vidro that much (not his fault that the Ms management are idiots), but even his most vehement supporters have to admit that Vidro and “speed tactic” are two things that DON’T go together…
If you were hell-bent on getting Bloomquist into the lineup and getting Vidro and Ibanez’ gloves on the field (and McLaren is clearly hell-bent), wouldn’t it make more sense to put Jpwns and the bad infield out there for flyball pitchers like Washburn pitch, while providing groundball pitchers like Felix with the good infield and Ral in LF. Goes without saying that Ral shouldn’t be in the lineup vs. Santana, but you get the idea. Unfortunately John McLaren doesn’t…
17,
It could theoretically make sense to leave Vidro in with his high average and low power numbers.
Also, I’m seeing 5 stolen bases for Bloomquist this year for Adrian’s 9. Factor this by how many more times Adrian’s been on base.
With today’s defense lineup, do we see more strike outs from Felix?
23- Let’s hope
Felix has great success against teams that don’t hit well, and the Twin’s don’t hit well at all, especially lately. Hopefully this translates into a dominant performance and we can get a few across the plate against Santana. Might only take 1 or 2 to win this one (unless our infield defense blows it)
I was at Santana’s last (and only previous) start at Safeco, in April (I think) this year. He was Santana, of course (albeit early-season Santana, AKA mortal), but the thing that killed the M’s was a double-steal. Hargrove was flatly out-managed in that game. MacLaren hopefully will have more of a clue, even if his lineup doesn’t offer much reassurance. Whether that’s enough, who knows. I’d love to see this game decided by these pitchers (and the bats) and not by stupidity in the dugout.
Is there really that big a dropoff from Beltre to Bloomquist?
Uh, yeah. (small sample size alert!)
Is it bad when you are totally convinced that half the stadium could come up with a better lineup than your manager on a nightly basis?
Looking at that line-up, I’m hoping for lots of ground balls hit straight to Yuni. Maybe he can break the assist record tonight, what with him playing two positions out there.
Was Dave wrong about Jose Contreras’ contract in the previous thread? 133 said he had 10 million for both ‘08 and ‘09 left on his contract.
Yea, I ended his contract a year early. I retract my support of a deal for him.
John McLaren: King Stork.
When can we get an average manager? I’m not even asking for an above average one, just average.
The question should be, “will the M’s enter the Santana sweepstakes this off season?”
While I profoundly respect the technical analysis that is conducted through USS Mariner, I rarely see mentioned that one aspect that we don’t have access to – what is currently happening in the locker room. I agree that team chemistry is almost entirely about winning. However, we don’t know if something is happening within the locker room that influences choices that go against statistical principles.
More to the point, do we actually think that McLaren and Bavasi have no understanding of USS Mariner philosophy or do they hold several, key tidbits of information that we lack and this information influences decisions.
If we actually think that they don’t understand, then we should demand for a USS Mariner convention at the end of the season that requires Mariner management to address a series of well thought out questions by Dave, DMZ, Jeff, and other relevant parties. It would be like a shareholder meeting where management has to justify their decisions. Otherwise, I find our dialog to feel similar to running into a brick wall over and over again, only to change direction (or managers) and run into a taller brick wall.
Viva Mariners!
I retract my support of a deal for him.
Oh, fanTAStic. You know what this means now, don’t you???
Yep. Prepare to be saddled…
24,
I’m not exactly sure what that shows… plus, I think we were talking about overall defensive stats.
Santana’s not a free agent at years end. Topic has been discussed recently.
Sorry, I misunderstood the newest ESPN article on the subject.
I know we all second-guess the decision making all the time, but sit back for a minute and reflect on
– Felix recently was given stuff posted on teh Interwebs about his pitching, and tried something different
– we keep Ichiro!
– for the first time in years (YEARS!) we are not buried in the standings
– Adam Jones is here. Now. Today.
– Lots of other positives..!
So I am going to sit back and enjoy this-here game tonight, regardless of outcome.
and to think, just this afternoon Gas announced that it was apparent that McLaren knew what he was doing as manager …
If the Twins are unable to sign Santana to an extension this winter and decide to shop him do you think we have the pieces to pry him away?
Bavasi comes out to USSM events and answers those questions. The team just has different views on how to value players and construct a team.
speaking of Super Awesome First In A Lifetime Great Venezuelan Pitching Matchup Day, Drayer was saying pre-game that Felix is very aware of this– that one of the reasons he was so pround of getting the 1st game of the year was that it would make 3 Venezuelan starting pitchers on opening day.
Raul crushes Santana. It’s unexplainable, but its true.
43 – I just looked at Raul’s numbers against Johan. He’s bringing a .919 OPS to the game. Wow. Who would have thunk it?
I looked up Beltre and Bloomquist’s career numbers against Santana, hoping to find horrible numbers for Beltre just so I could feel better about him being out of the line-up tonight. No such luck. He has a .286 AVG with a .429 SLG against Santana, versus Willie’s .250 and, wait for it… .250.
Johan has been a backwards pitcher for years now, fwiw. So even though Ibanez stinks vs. LH, the general principle of using lefty hitters against Johan’s change-up, much like the general principle of using righty hitters against Mariano’s cutter or Wakefield’s knuckler, is a sound one.
It doesn’t matter. Individual statistics between batter and pitcher have been proven to have zero predictive value.
El Presidente vs El Rey.
So you dont think certain batters see the ball better against certain pitchers?
Exactly. And I’ve got evidence on my side.
#47– what?! we are supposed to just ignore that Willie B owned Zito?
Dave, do you mean predictive for future success or predictive for team success?
47,
Seriously? You mean FSN isn’t showing us useful data?
/sarcasm
52: How could Joe Leftfield’s good historical numbers against Bob Strikeout not correlate to future success for Joe against Bob while positively correlating to Joe’s team’s success against Bob?
Jose Vidro.
He’s got a glove, and he’s going to wear it.
I mean that the past performance of a certain player against any other certain player doesn’t tell us one thing about what we should expect those guys to do against each other in the future.
Jose Guillen is 0 for 10 against Santana
Raul is 11 for 28 against Santana
Does that mean
1)Raul is a better hitter overall
2)Raul hits Santana better than Guillen
3)Raul is luckier than Guillen
I would say he just hits Santana better.
4) It means nothing at all.
I would say you’re misusing statistics to draw an incorrect conclusion. And again, I have a giant mountain of historical data to prove it.
52 –
If Joe’s good historical numbers cause Bob to pitch around Joe, then it could cause Joe’s team – if not successful against Bob – to carry more of the load.
If Joe’s historical numbers were average against Bob, then Joe’s team would not be expected to do anymore than they historically could.
A decision in each start this year for Wakefield. Number 24. Me and my Yanks (boo) fan friend have been watching this stat since he recorded the first 18 straight decisions. Crazy.
Also… I think despite the bad defensive situation, the Twins offense is not going to have enough to get any runs off of Felix if he throws more than just FBs tonight.
King, you’re not going to get any meaningful information from those tiny sample sizes. There is almost nothing to be gleaned in 10 at-bats that can be used to forecast future performance.
I hate to even broach the subject, but Felix’s first six pitches were all fastballs.
Dave, that is quite an interesting fact you have thrown at me, and now I am doing my own homework to figure it out.
Glen,
If you’re interested in this stuff, buy “The Book” by Mitchel Lichtman, Tom Tango, and Andy Dolphin. It’s available on Amazon, among other places. It covers all this stuff.
I guess Felix doesn’t have any other pitches today…..
So it’s Beltre’s decision not to start… great. Maybe he doesn’t want his numbers to go down facing a great pitcher. haha…
I don’t mind it if Felix has success throwing 90% FBs the first time through the lineup. It just makes his other pitches more of a surprise the second time through. If he’s not having success with the FB, he obviously has to mix it up.
66-
Did you see that breaking ball out pitch? Yaaayyyyy!
nasty!
What on earth was that? 90 MPH, straight down, no sideways movement – looked like a splitter.
I think there may be a little excess adreneline going here in the first inning.
here it comes….. thanks 3…
Umm, yea, defense matters.
Ok, this is not good :/
Way to handle a routine play, Vidro. MINUS ONE “I”!!
hey, all I said was that he was wearing his glove, not that he knew how to use it.
Only a little, Dave. And only when it really matters.
“Routine grounder to Vidro and that ends the…………WTF?!??!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!??!?!”
Blown save by Rivera – O’s tied it up in the 9th
Rivera blows the save! Tie game in New York!
I can see it now on fangraphs – biggest suckfest – Vidro -18%
Go Orioles.
My two favorite teams are the Seattle Mariners and whoever’s playing the New York Yankees that night.
Pitch 29 of the inning coming up
You have to love those fangraphs!
“Thanks a lot, Mac,” says Felix.
besides putting a runner on base, that error is making felix throw a lot more pitches…..now he might only get into the 6th rather than the 7th…..
i hate you Jose Vidro
Look at Felix’s pitch count.
Man.
So, how many extra pitches did Vidro make Felix throw in that inning?
Wow, already an extra inning’s worth of pitches from Felix thanks to Vidro playing the field. Way to go, McLaren!
vidro just cost felix an innings worth of pitches. great job jose!!!
Felix should just walk up to Vidro and without saying a word bitch slap him and walk away
man i wonder how long felix will last after throwing 30 pitches in the first
Good god…how many extra pitches did Felix throw because of Turbo? 18? Way to single-handedly ruin the game, Vidro.
according to Drayer, the hitters’ meeting announcement today read:
No meeting. Pitcher: Santana.
Felixxxxxxxx.
Why can’t you mix your pitches like everyone always tells you to do? You’ll get yourself into less trouble with fewer pitches.
it was only 11 extra pitches but that could end up being an inning. say he starts the 8th with 89 or 100. 100 and we go to the bullpen, 89 felix gets the chance to finish the inning.
Johan throws a change-up on his first pitch of the game. If he doesn’t need to establish the fastball, neither do you, Felix. Take notes.
I am just so frustrated by McLaren’s tinkering. Vidro at 2B, and Felix throws an extra thousand first inning pitches. Why can’t we just have a Bob Geren-type who just leaves things alone?…
Well, I guess that bloop single makes up for everything…[/sarcasm]
Dave,
If you were to run a similar analysis on Santana as to Ichiro, what kind of value does he have over the next four or five years?
63: IMO, it’s the same as the discussion about Weaver’s early season struggles in the last thread. A good pitcher like Santana will face hundreds of different batters over the years, and some of them will inevitably perform better than others in their 5-50 at-bats against him. Pointing out “favorable” or “unfavorable” matchups based on this is just another example of cherry picking data. If it really meant something, you’d expect people to be able to predict who would fare well in a given pitcher-batter matchup BEFORE it happened. I really doubt anyone would be willing to argue a priori that Ibanez would do well against Santana.
92
I think the credit for sabotaging the team’s chances goes to McLaren – if that’s the goal, it’s a brilliantly constructed lineup.
are there a lote of Twins fans at this game, or a lot of Santana fans? that was quite a huzzah when Ichiro was out
So far, i really dont like where this game is going. 30+ pitches in the first inning is rediculous, thats old weaver style. And santana, its going to be a tough game all around.
F&*#ing Yankees. Oh, how I hate them.
If I could get Johan on a 5 year deal, I’d give him $130-140 million. Seriously. He’s worth close to $30 million a year.
If you want to see a nice easy swing, not trying to do to much with the pitch, don’t watch Jose Guillen. The man is angry up there.
Okay. Thanks for the number.
Wow. That’s a lot. He’s awesome right now, but wow.
The thing is, Vidro should have been able to hit that single without playing second base, the only reason he’s playing there is because of some baffling attempt to get a guy with a .600 OPS against LHP into the lineup.
Credit where credit’s due…nice hit by Raul. I came in expecting an o-fer from the player o’ the week.
Richie baby, we love you.
That’s in the upper deck in Comiskey. If you ever wanted an example of the difference between Seattle and Chicago, there you go. That was crushed.
There shouldn’t be much credit due for Raul, there. He got lucky. If Santana gets his glove up a hair faster, that’s a one-hopper back to the pitcher. It was not a particularly well-struck ball.
Funk double…. I think this is weird week. Raul and Richie hitting better. Weaver CG! Wow.
Don’t make me love you again Richie you’ll just hurt me again.
Re Beltre, why couldn’t Little Mac just say: No Adrian, Felix is pitching and I need my best infield in there. I’ll give you Tuesday.
You know . . . manage. Lot’s of us manage people all day long and sometimes you have to say no.
The Vidro thing, well, if you guys can’t explain then I surely can’t.
Idiot.
I agree totally with 105. I expect a lot of the smarter teams in baseball will be offering exactly that. It’s gonna be wild.
Dave, do you not worry about how a 30-year-old pitcher will age as much as you do with a hitter? I seem to recall reading something along those lines, but I’m not sure. Any reservations about giving Santana that kind of money?
Man, this Yo-han fellow sucks.
at least kenji is still the same.
#107– FWIW, Stark today quoted ‘an official’ speculating that Santana would be looking for $25M per year
So…are we seeing a glimmer of Richie maybe, just maybe, turning it around? I’m not sure what to think about Richie’s past few games…
If you were to ask me which was more likely to happen: a) the sun burning out or b) Raul getting a hit off of Johan followed by a Sexson 2-run double I would have probably had a hard time choosing.
US Cellular doesn’t have an upper deck in the outfield.
Dave. 30 million? for Santana?
He could be a 25 year-old Roger Clemens… but 30 mil is -STEEP- for any pitcher… much less one who is averaging less than 7 ip/start. Maybe that’s just today’s pitching world; that figure could be tops in the league for all I know.
30 Million is a lotta dimp.
Oh, certainly, I’d rather be paying $30 million a year to Pujols than Santana, but that’s not an option. I’m certainly scared of pitchers, but it’s always a risk-reward balance, and the reward is so remarkably high to make the risk worth it.
It is beginning to be like 95. New hero every day. I will take it.
114 — And then the Yankees offer $5 million per year more than that and snap him up.
MLB needs to expand into two markets: Portland, Oregon and New York, New York.
Remember how much money they gave Zito, he hasnt done much this year, its been kind of an off year for Santan though too, but we will see i guess when the time comes as to how much money people are willing to shell out for a chance to win 1 every 5 games.
#122 – the odds of the sun burning out is approximately 1. It’s definitely going to happen!
There is no other pitcher in baseball who compares right now. I don’t think $30 mil. is that unreasonable.
Johan and Felix wow. That would be like Randy and Shilling– no much better.
What the hell is that chicken lookin’ thing in glasses the crazy red headed guy is holding up tonight?
130 – and by “right now” I mean almost ever.
Nick Punto – it’s like Extra Lite Sexson.
Hmmm, about a quarter of Felix’s pitches are not registering with Game Day’s system (in terms of speed and movement) – no such problems with Santana’s pitches thus far … what’s going on?
Barry Zito stinks. Johan Santana doesn’t.
Wow, that’s a lot of pitches.
I’m watching on Gameday, did anything interesting happen with that balk call?
woah woah woah, whats goin on right now? kinda scary, coachin visits.
135 – He is just that good.
Apparently the M’s are having some trouble signing Aumont. Any word on what the hold up is, Dave?
137: he turned to do a pickoff move… and dropped the ball.
@132
That’s Harry Canary, he was at the AquaSox USSM/LL meetup I believe.
Remember how much money they gave Zito, he hasnt done much this year, its been kind of an off year for Santan though too . . .
Zito was never on Santana’s level. Not even close. The Giants made a huge mistake with that contract.
And I wouldn’t call this year an off year for Santana. All his peripherals are in line with his career numbers (except he’s given up a few more homers than usual). He just hasn’t gotten the same run support, so his win total is lower than we might expect.
2 innings, 55 pitches, ouch!
The Twins hitters 1-2 and 7-9 are a laughable bunch. Seriously, outside of 3-6 the Twins’ lineup is like mediocre AAA.
So I notice Scott Achison is starting for San Francisco tomorrow. I didn’t really start paying attention until he was gone from the organization. I heard he was injured…He had a brief but effective relief stint for the Mariners…how good is he?
Felix has sooo many pitches right now, im suprised that we have the lead right now, he better get some quick innings or its bullpen time.
55 Pitches … he won’t make it through the 5th inning of a shutout at this rate …
The Harry Canary sign is the greatest inside joke of all time. It’s an inflatable mascot that attacked Jeff Sullivan, the curator or lookoutlanding.com, up in Everett 10 days ago.
seems like whenever felix gets a two strike count he goes for the KO with a high 4 seamer and then ends up throwing about 5 more pitches in the at bat. Is it just not that great of a pitch, or do hitters just know it’s coming by now?
131: I don’t think there ever has been or ever will be a tandem better than Johnson-Schilling during the time they were there.
You guys ever see that guy behind home plate they always show that has the I (heart) Beltre sign??? that guy is crazy lol, i see him evertime i watch games on tv. wearing dodger jerseys and stuff.
Dave, I didn’t see the sign, what did it say?
While it wasn’t as bad as that Russ Ortiz contract a few years back, Zito’s contract was excessive. I don’t think it’s wise for any player to keep receiving that kind of money. It’ll dissolve into A-Rod all over again on *every* team. There’s no question Santana is fantastic but that doesn’t mean he should eat up a third or more of your payroll. One pitcher cannot carry an entire team all season, no matter how great he is.
A) If hitters know its coming, they can get a bat on it, though not for a hit.
B) I think Dave was showing that good strikeout pitchers tend to strike out more batters with their secondary pitchers, since its a matter of timing.
It shows that Felix still hasn’t learned to pitch and set up batters.
131: I don’t think there ever has been or ever will be a tandem better than Johnson-Schilling during the time they were there.
It was only for half a season, but the one-two punch of Santana and Liriano last year was absolutely ridiculous.
That guy’s name is Red – he’s an interesting fellow. He owns like 9 Belre jerseys.
The sign has an I, a heart, and a picture of Harry Canary. I’m sure you’ll see it again.
with both pitchers pitch count getting up there, can anyone tell me about the twins bullpen? I don’t know much aside from nathan.
Alright Felix needs a quick inning here thanks to Turbo’s sterling defense.
154: $30 isn’t a third of the Mariner’s payroll. And the Mariner’s payroll is inflated by some remarkably bad decisions (Vidro, Washburn, Sexson). If it hadn’t been, there’d be plenty of room for $30 for Santana.
155: i guess my point was that nobody is swinging at it, and my impression of the strategy behind a high 4 seamer was because of the illusion that a high fastball is coming in the zone before it rises out of reach. So my question was about Felix’s 4-seamer – perhaps it’s not that great as 4-seamers go if it’s easy to see that it’s out of the zone. Or this could just be a result of the fact that it’s what Felix throws every time he’s ahead in a two strike count.
well, the way Santana is pitching he could get into the 6th or 7th inning if we keep groundin out everytime, but interms of the bullpen i dunno.
The Twins pen is awesome. Neshek, Guerrier, Nathan are lights out at the end of the game. They’re a bit soft in the middle though.
who’s better, Mauer or Kenji?
158: The lowdown on the Twin’s bullpen: great. Nathan’s great, and Neshek and Guerrier are great.
He was lucky that was only a single.
I really think that mauer is awesome.
Beaten entirely because I can’t make my fingers type out Guerrier the first time.
161- That was a four seem fastball Felix just threw. It’s not that is bad but when its 3-1 you know its coming its going to get hit.
re: Red, the Beltre fan
ah, here is the Beltre story– I missed it when they were talking about it earlier:
“I have wanted him to take a day off,” McLaren said, “and he actually called me [Sunday night] about it. He has been reluctant to take a day off, but I have told him that we have a long grind ahead of us and if he didn’t take a day off now, taking a day off in September wouldn’t help.” Beltre had played in 103 of the Mariners’ first 115 games.
Nice play by WFB.
I don’t recall seeing a lineup that’s as night-and-day as tonight’s Twins iteration. As long as Felix can get through the Mauer-Hunter-Morneau (and Cuddyer, I suppose) portion it should be automatic.
Nice WFB. Very nice.
That’s a very tough play by Bloomquist.
a few more 13 pitch innings would be nice
Nice snag by Jones…I doubt Raul would have gotten there.
164: Isn’t Mauer like the best catcher in the game?
at some point the Twins have to decide if they want to keep & pay Nathan, too…
160: Sorry, I should have clarified that I was giving an example of an amount for one player that would eat up a considerable amount of payroll. I wasn’t talking about the Mariners specifically. But, yeah, as we all know, the M’s excel at poor payroll management.
[shift keys are located on the left and right of your keyboard]
Well I think Felix is looking pretty good so far. What’s everyone else got to say?
Santana fields his position well. He certainly does everything he can to help his cause. I like that he appears athietic and nimble. Good qualities that would indicate he may age well…he said with a well hedged, non-commital statement.
Well I think Felix is looking pretty good so far. What’s everyone else got to say?
Command could be better. And Dave noted the pitch selection issues.
I read the Twins were leaning toward signing Hunter and not Santana. I know the Twins are one of the smarter franchises (though they have a Mariner like tendancy to pick up and give too much playing time to crappy veterans), but isn’t Hunter going to be much more overpaid compared to his abilities, in a long term deal, than Santana?
Command could be better? Understatement of the year. Felix has no idea where his fastball’s going tonight.
Twin killing hahaha!
nice job guillen,
184–Minnesota suffers from the same syndrome that Seattle does.
Modern players with endorsements in their sights do NOT want to end up there.
So, nearly ALL of the FA prospects will have to be overpaid for…
Hunter will break Minnesotan hearts and leave for a payday elsewhere…or he’ll unbalance the team the way that KG did the T’wolves in basketball.
(Of course, I’m still stunned that Ichiro won’t be in pinstripes next year…so, you never can tell…)
Willie is looking good tonight.
I would think “Vidro doesn’t hit for as much power as we thought he would when we signed him”, would be a rival understatement.
who’s better, Mauer or Kenji?
Mauer is the better hitter because he has much better plate discipline. His OBP this year is .390, to Kenji’s .315. His OBP last year was an outstanding .429. The thing with Mauer, though, is he doesn’t get the ball out of the park a lot. Many have predicted that his power will come around, but it hasn’t yet. But I’d give him the edge over Kenji.
I’m not Bloomie homer but you got to respect a guy who gets so few starts who plays so hard when he does get his chance. He is a great utility player. We are lucky to have him when he plays this role.
Felix going to the soft stuff now.
Quick inning. Felix needed that.
All right, theres the Felix we all know and love. Good inning.
Or at least the Felix we want to know and love.
I know this has been talked about, but just to clarify, when gameday says it’s 99, it’s really 96mph right?
Mauer VORP since beginning of 2006: 94
Johjima VORP since beginning of 2006: 42
Plus, Mauer has thrown out over 50% of would be basestealers.
In Safeco, yes. On the road, no.
way to take one for the team raul!
Raul continues to dominate Santana
Nice AB by Ibanez. The M’s should tell him he’s POTW every day and see how that works out.
Oh, Richie….I thought you were actually working that AB pretty well. Guess not.
hey richie!!! where ya been buddy!
Two pitches, two outs, that’s not acceptable.
FIRST PITCH SWINGS KILL ME DAMNIT!
Why can Felix not throw strikes to a guy with a .569 OPS this season?
His command is just so awful tonight.
Walking the leadoff batter. The 9th spot one at that. ARG.
Richie is doing better, give him a bit of credit. If that at bat had taken place a month earlier, he would never have lasted that many pitches or had that first inning double.
Does the ump have a small strike zone tonight? Gamecast is showing some of these pitches well within the zone.
No – Felix isn’t close.
This doesn’t constitute any kind of advocacy or Richie Sexson whatsoever, but is it possible that the mean isn’t as bad as he has been recently? Will there be any positive impact if he re-regresses, so ultimately for the last month and a half he’ ends up being worth ~ +3 runs over suckitude, i.e. if he sucks less?
Obviously, I’m trying to be pragmatic here. This management thinks a certain way, and they’re just not going to sit him, so I’m hoping for some silver lining.
I’ve got a handle on this one. We at USSM need to just chill. Mclaren is pulling a George Castanza… he’s doing the exact opposite…. So you see…. with John, we’re in good hands.
Sure – Sexson’s been both bad and somewhat unlucky. He’s likely to hit better than he has so far. But he’s still terrible defensively and Broussard should be stealing at-bats against righties.
Is felix putting up 0′s tonight a testament to his stuff, or are the Twins just that bad?
Maybe his fastball command isn’t great (and walking Punto is just plain bad), but he’s got 6 Ks in less than five innings and maybe I’m wrong, but hasn’t he gotten a lot of groundballs? Anybody know his grounder-fly ratio tonight?
Dear Felix: BREAKING BALL!
Broussard’s pretty bad defensively too. Do you really think he’s that big a step up from Sexson?
Mauer just kills us.
His stuff is good but he has no command today. Good meaning it has a lot of movement.
7-2 GO/AO
Turbo just looks horrible out there.
Vidro!!!
With throwing 100 pitches trhough 5, and command being a bit of a problem … when do you pull Felix?
I’m sure he’ll start the next inning, and if anyone gets on base or he gets near 120 pitches, he’ll get pulled.
MacLaren seems to leave starters out there longer. He’ll pitch the six and maybe even start the seventh if he has a quick sixth.
A lot of the hits have been on grounders too. That hit by Mauer was not exactly a screaming line drive (although Mauer’s first hit was).
225: Me? Right now. We have the bullpen ready after all of them getting a day off yesterday.
Mac? …when Felix gives up the lead.
i think felix is probably done. put him out there for 100+?
225 – i say at the first sign of major trouble, the Yankees won and you can’t afford to blow this game
@216 –
Twins have 24 runs in last 10 games, which includes an 11 run outburst. They’ve been absolutely terrible offensively since the break.
so 2 steals huh? what happend, i cant watch the game, did “vidro” not cover again?
Yuni hammering the change!
219: Broussard is nobody’s defensive upgrade.
MacLaren to sacrifice.
Nice one Yuni.
I would bunt willie here. Probably the only time I’d bunt with a runner on first all year.
sorry, nevermind
Dont. Bunt.
Broussard is significantly better defensively than Sexson at first base. Sexson’s the worst defensive everyday first baseman in baseball.
will needs to bunt in this situation.
Mac has stated that he doesn’t care for pitch counts, so I’d be shocked if Felix were done after just 5 innings even though he’s thrown 100 pitches.
Broussard struggles with routine popups.
17, 20 — Sorry for the late response, but if you’re still around, I think it was referring to Jones and Bloomquist being in the lineup, not Vidro, who’s always in the lineup …
Broussard is nobody’s defensive upgrade
Broussard has performed fairly well at first this year, if I’m not mistaken. Much better than Sexson. Broussard’s terrible in the outfield, though.
whats goin on? gamecast wont update
Well MacLaren is an enigma. Not that I like the sac bunt but I thought this is where he’d do it.
And Sexson has the range of a potted plant, which is far more harmful than a guy struggling with the occassional popup.
244: Sexson struggles with routine grounders. Being a firstbaseman, that is more of a problem
Please teach Willie not to slide to first. It doesn’t work. That has been proven.
If he runs through it, he’s safe. Diving into first base is the height of stupidity.
Thanks. Accomplished the same baserunner advancement and made Santana throw a bunch of pitches and run to first.
WFB sees the opportunity to get dirty, takes it, to the detriment of the team. What a selfish player.
He probably doesn’t realize how selfish it is, he probably thinks he’s “hustling.”
It seem unfair to call him selfish. It may have been a bad play to slide but I don’t think it was out of selfishness.
Turbo powered RBI!!!
Willie’s mom hangs his dirty jerseys on the refrigerator.
We’ll have to disagree on Broussard, I guess. He’s an awful defensive player.
What could possibly be the justification for throwing Felix out there again?
258 – And Mom only does laundry on Sundays.
Yuni got hurt? What did I miss?
256: Yeah, but part of ‘hustles and plays the game the right way’ is ‘playing the the game the right way’. If you don’t have skillz, you need to think before you slide into first.
We’ll have to disagree on Broussard, I guess. He’s an awful defensive player.
He can be an awful defensive player and still be better than Sexson.
It’s so much fun being petrified every time a Twin hits a ground ball.
260 – We have a bad manager. Oh wait that’s not a justification.
What could possibly be the justification for throwing Felix out there again?
Not that I agree with this, but the justification would be that he’s put nothing but zeros on the scoreboard and can throw another 15 or 20 pitches before getting into dangerous territory as far as pitch counts are concerned.
I just had a horrifying realization that Parrish will probably pitch at some point.
I just hate when the announcers act like “productive outs” are intentional. “Way to go, Willie” and “Smart move, John.” Yeah Willie wanted to ground out to second just like MacLaren told him to. Willie wanted a base hit just like everybody else. Advancing the runner is nice, but it’s not something that anybody planned and a hit would’ve been better.
Vidro looked surprised that he actually caught the ball.
So, just got a call from my Dad, who has been a big Vidro fan (he also loves his WFB). I’ve been ripping Turbo all year, often using the analysis from this website, so the call was to rub it in more than anything. 3-3. Over .400 since the All-Star break. Well, if I’m going to be wrong, this is the way to do it (still think he cools way off, though).
You know, I feel disserved by our contrarians. It’s not that I want to believe every little word that comes out of Dave and DMZ’s rosy lips. Or, uh, rosy fingers. But all of the people who show up and start disagreeing with them are always proved wrong! Can we send away for some mercenary contrarians who will employ the highest quality of statistical tools?
Thank you.
I sure hope Ichiro steals… a double play would hurt.
I just have to apologize right now, I suspect the M’s are going to lose, just to make me suffer.
After an impossibly messed up day at work I donated plasma…they played “Everyone’s Hero” while I was there. I heard Yankee/Yankees approximately 3,000 times (and I really wish I had counted, at this point). Just the pain from watching a 10 year old kid (even in an animated movie) bat in the world series, 40 man roster be damned, would be bad enough…if he wasn’t named Yankee and playing for the Yankees.
Bloomquist is having a pretty terrific defensive night at third base.
Sorry, I’m an idiot. He did give up a run.
Easy inning, that’s good.
Boy, we’re lucky this is the Twins offense we’re playing against. Felix has been placing his pitches really poorly.
Wow, Willie.
269 -
He was trying to go the other way but I agree with your overall sentiment.
I just hate when the announcers act like “productive outs†are intentional. “Way to go, Willie†and “Smart move, John.†Yeah Willie wanted to ground out to second just like MacLaren told him to. Willie wanted a base hit just like everybody else. Advancing the runner is nice, but it’s not something that anybody planned and a hit would’ve been better.
Not sure if anyone says something along these lines, but I always say productive outs are just cutting across instead of down.
I see Kenji’s been to the WFB school of baserunning.
Johjima sliding too. Mariners need to be cured of that disease.
Johjima almost pulled an AJ Pierzynski
I don’t think Bert Blyleven wanted any rally fries.
It wouldn’t kill you to take a pitch eventually, AJ. Of course, his 0-for-last-two-days means he won’t start again for a month.
Is it possible the fans could give Sexson a break just for one night? Despite two K’s he did knock in a 2 run double tonight and who doesn’t strike out to Santana?
STOP SLIDING INTO FIRST!
….What happened to Green?
What the fuck happened to Sean Green?
Oh god….Parrish…..
Begs the question, why? With a rested pen?
How good is Willie generally with the glove? Is it hard to quantify because he plays like 32 positions? He seems pretty serviceable, though I know his bat is so bad that it doesn’t justify playing him regularly, but I’m curious what defensive metrics say about him.
Parrish? Couldn’t McLaren find a better opportunity to see use this guy?
Yep, this is exactly the place I want to see the worst guy in the pen.
Announce my presence with hilarity…
McLaren really doesn’t want us to win, does he?
Gotta be careful with that Tyner kid. Here come the parahnas!
Since this blog has been so instrumental in naming King Felix how about a moniker for their leader. I can only come up with John F’ing McLaren which is not very eloquent.
Does he understand we are in a pennant race?
Nice pitching. Can someone tell me why we acquired this bozo?
Ibanez would’ve let that single get to the wall and probably score a run.
Ugh. Now he’s really never starting again.
That should be an error. And please I know Raul wouldn’t have gotten to the ball.
#298
To replace the void left by Julio Mateo in the Mariners bullpen.
Wow. I believe Dave but I just saw evidence of Vidro’s range. Or lack thereof. Unbelievable.
I vote we trade John for Lance Parrish, currently managing the Great Lake Loons. (Plus Lance went to my high school!)
Sean Green kicks ass.
I don’t think that’s an error, but it’s a play he should’ve had. I’d heard he was a great fielder and he’s certainly fast with a good arm, but can somebody who watched him play in the minors more (probably Dave) tell me, how good a fielder is Adam? Did he drop many balls in AAA this year?
enazario, there’s no way in hell that’s an error, give it a rest. He barely got there.
I can’t believe McLaren. I know it’s hard to understand but generally you don’t want to rely on an acquisition from one of the worst bullpens in the league when you already have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Especially after he walks the first batter on 4 pitches then gives up a single, then you leave him in to face a third batter? What the hell is wrong with you?
John Parrish enters in a close game, puts guys on base, game tied when Adam Jones drops a flyball, and the USSM server dies. That’s a bad 5 minutes.
Parrish really pitched? Seriously? Why? It’s not like there were five better options to go to in that situation… Wait, what? There were? Well I’ll be damned. Come on, sling-arm.
The only way he can be forgiven is if Ral or Richie go Funky to win this thing…
Jones defense in Tacoma was awesome. Yes, he should have caught that ball. No excuses. But it’s not a sign of any kind of flaw.
Great, is he planning on bringing Putz into a nonsave situation? McLaren’s decision makings skills tonight have baffled me beyond belief. I now know why he was a bench coach for so long
There are no more save situations as the home team.
Wow. Thanks Gardenhire!
McLaren bringing JJ into a non-save situation? Strange, since his pattern indicated…two dimensional thinking.
Wow. I don’t think I ever knew that one could “bunt out.” I guess I haven’t seen it since I started watching baseball!
If Richie wins it instead of AJ, I will still be happy
Server melts
Called it! If that’s what sucking less means, I’ll take it.
Richie! I can’t help myself; I like the guy. And I’m very happy to see a walk-off homerun rescue this game from some crap managing.
An Interesting Series of Events:
1. Richie Sexson steps to the plate.
2. I nervously bite my fingernails.
3. Pitch comes…
4. Tears of frustration come to my eyes as I curl my hand into a fist to hit my computer (MLB.tv) as I mistakenly predict another Sexson blunder at the plate.
5. Richie hits a walk off homer.
6. My head explodes
I don’t believe what I just saw. As does no one else here.
The good news is that while Jones has now dropped two fly balls in a short period of time, that won’t diminish his playing time. The reason he is not in the lineup is that guys like McClaren think he is not a “proven veteran” and therefore is more likely to make mistakes. So when he makes them, that is not a shocking event. He figures to get two starts out of every seven games. And if Richie, Ibanez and Vidro keep hitting the ball, well, we might stay in the hunt.
I think the server meltdown was the response to the Richie walkoff homerun, it’s the only possible explanation.
I now this is a serious place to talk about Mariners baseball with serious baseball fans, but it’s comments like 319 that make it even a more enjoyable experience.
When Jones dropped that ball, he also bashed into the wall and was holding his knee as he came in after the play. Let’s just pray to whatever gods we embrace that it’s only a bruise.
Give Up the Suck!
Well nobody was booing that Richie!
I was just typing “Now would be a good time to jack one Sexsy” then what do ya know, there it is.
I feel good for him though, he needed that, and if he isn’t gonna be benched anyway that’s definitely the kind of thing I like to see.
I was bitching all night (not here, obviously, but to those around me at the bar) that Gardenhire had out-managed the M’s in the past and was likely to do so again. And then he has a guy bunt with two strikes. Against Putz. Huh?
On another note, I really hope Parrish isn’t McLaren’s new Reitsma. I don’t get why he seems to have so little confidence in Green to get the job done, has he ever not?
Yeah, that bunt was bizarre. Did Gardenhire call for it?
Do we really have the 3rd best record in baseball? Wouldn’t have predicted that a few weeks ago!
Is there some way to send another open letter to the powers that be about managerial “issues” such as playing Lopez/Beltre for a groundball pitcher?
Is that the first walk-off Funk Blast?
And somehow, despite McLaren getting his playbook from a team of thousand drunk monkeys, we win anyway.
Hell, if that’s the way it has to be, then bring on the drunk monkeys.
(And speaking of drunk monkeys, what the heck is up with the the post-game show? Way more incoherent than usual – not easy to do.)
For a site that preaches regression to the mean, Richie coming around shouldn’t be that big of a revelation. I personally think that random walk theory applies as well. When a player is hitting well he can be expected to continue to hit well, until he stops hitting well. Richie certainly fit that theory when he was not hitting.
Joser,
are you sure that was Gardenhire? Quite often when a manager gives his players some rope, they hang themselves.
Re: post game show, I’m guessing Cara Capuano screwed up the team chemistry since Angie is presumably post-natal now?
Damn rookies.
As long as the drunk monkeys aren’t rally monkeys. I hate the friggin rally monkey.
Great, is he planning on bringing Putz into a nonsave situation? McLaren’s decision makings skills tonight have baffled me beyond belief. I now know why he was a bench coach for so long
I know hindsight is 20/20, but I really was trying to write this response at the time Putz came in, but the server was dying. Anyway, here goes:
As someone else mentioned, there were no save situations left in the game for JJ. Saves are dumb. Mac brought in our best reliever in a high-leverage situation. JJ helped this team win tonight. He didn’t garner the glory stat, but he held the Twins in check and let Richie win the game. This is one of the few moves Mac has made recently that I whole-heartedly agree with.
Also, hooray Richie!
In general, sure bringing on your closer for the top of the 9th is a good move. But we were facing the weakest hitters in the Twins lineups and lefties to boot. It was a perfect spot for Sherill and then use Putz for the heart of the order in the 10th if it gets that far.
The Mariners sure are doing their best to Forrest Gump their way into the playoffs, thanks mostly to McLaren. I just hope they notice it is in spite of him not because of him and search for manager in the off season.
Go M’s!
thank goodness I had nothing to do with bringing down the server.
and yes, Sir Dave, Angie did pop out the little Mentick, who, amazingly, did not weigh 40 lbs when he arrived.
It was a perfect spot for Sherill and then use Putz for the heart of the order in the 10th if it gets that far.
I hear you, to a degree, but “if it gets that far” is the key phrase. I would just hate to see Sherrill give up a run and the M’s lose while our best reliever sits on the pine. Obviously, Sherrill is a good pitcher, but he’s not the best the Mariners have to offer. Putz is just as good against lefties as he is against righties. It was a crucial spot, and Putz was the guy to go to. As long as he’s not being overused (and I don’t think he is), he should usually be the first option in high-leverage spots.
he should usually be the first option in high-leverage spots.
That would have been in the 7th.
A Felix win or not? Vidro!/Mac!
Troy J Says:
it was only 11 extra pitches but that could end up being an inning. say he starts the 8th with 89 or 100. 100 and we go to the bullpen, 89 felix gets the chance to finish the inning.
Wasn’t around my computer last night. I was so missing reading the game thread and I think I snorted beer out of my nose when I saw the Harry Canary sign. This is all hindsight of course but WFB did pretty good at third, Ichiro stunk, Adam stunk, Vidro and Sexson carried the offense… what’s going on here ???