August Offense
Since I haven’t finished the second post on projecting players yet, but don’t want to have another day with no substantive posts, here’s a stub.
M’s offense, by month:
April: .266/.310/.413, 736 PA, .147 ISO, 5.3% BB, 14.5% K, .283 BABIP, 97 sOPS+
May: .291/.345/.433, 1162 PA, .142 ISO, 6.9% BB, 12.4% K, .309 BABIP, 108 sOPS+
June: .290/.348/.416, 1053 PA, .126 ISO, 7.1% BB, 16.2% K, .323 BABIP, 102 sOPS+
July: .262/.320/.374, 1045 PA, .112 ISO, 7.4% BB, 16.2% K, .294 BABIP, 84 sOPS+
August: .333/.374/.527, 748 PA, .194 ISO, 5.2% BB, 14.6% K, .354 BABIP, 131 sOPS+
For those not familiar with the terms, ISO is Isolated Slugging, or SLG-BA, which basically tells you the power that a player (or team, in this case) is hitting for. For instance, looking at SLG, you’d think the team hit for more power in May than in April, but that’s actually not true – the SLG was just inflated by an increase in singles. BB% and K% should be self explanatory, and help show just how aggressive this team is. BABIP is batting average on balls in play, essentially removing home runs and strikeouts from the equation, and show how often a ball that stays in the field turns into a hit. And sOPS+ is the team’s park adjusted OPS compared to the league for each month. So, in April, the team hit 3% worse than average, then improved to 8% above average in May, 2% above average in June, fell apart to the tune of 16% below average in July, but has owned August, hitting 31% better than the rest of the league.
As you can see, the increase in offense has been driven by two forces – an increase in power (I’m looking at you, Raul) and a huge increase in BABIP (Yep, that’s Vidro). With those two reaching unprecedented levels of production and the rest of the offense not taking a nosedive, the M’s have turned into a veritable run scoring machine.
We’ve talked about the sustainability factor of those performances, but here’s the thing – this hyper aggressive approach comes with significant variance, but that variance comes with a built in upside – over any period of weeks, the M’s can absolutely blister the ball. This is basically the blueprint the White Sox used to score their way to a World Series title – swing the bat a lot, get a lot of hits, have parade.
If the M’s make it to October, their offense is good enough to win the whole thing. On Groz’s show a few months ago, I commented that the big chore would be for this team to just make the playoffs, because if they got in, they’re built very well for October play. And I think that still holds very true.
As bad as Lopez is, he’s not exactly at a pitcher level. Sure, Tim Hudson sports a sexy .503 OPS (higher than Lopez’ Post-AS .486) but Brandon Webb’s down at .150 over 57 AB.
Don’t worry, Lopez has those clauses in his contract…
Yep, but why do they have to put those in the contract in the first place? Maintaining top physical condition will improve performance and prevent injuries, which can mean millions of dollars in future contracts. If you’re into money, that should be motivation enough.
I suppose for all I know Lopez is working his butt off, even though he gives off that “lazy” aura. I sure hope pulls out of this funk.
50- I think Washburn and Weaver are better then a couple of number four starters. If Felix is on, I think Felix, Weaver, Washburn/Batista isn’t too bad. Certainly not great, but like it has been with this team all year, if we can somehow get a lead into the late innings we’re tough to beat.
This offensive roll couldn’t have come at a better time either. Its seems like the M’s have batted around 3-4 times in the last week. This whole 17 of 20 on the road stretch had me scared out of my mind a week ago. There is a long way to go but starting 3/4 has me hoping we’ll still be in this thing after we come out the other end!
Yay for offensive productive! Hoping it holds!
I think I see what you mean about the offense and October, but what about the pitching? It’s always seemed to me that the most crucial elements of October success are having at least 2 dominant starters and a dominant closer. The M’s certainly have the latter, but what about the starters? Yes, Felix is capable of dominating, but he hasn’t done so in quite a while, and has shown that he is young and still has a lot to learn about pitching. I just don’t see him as ready for October. Ironically, Jeff Weaver is our other best bet to dominate, and of course he’s already shown he can do that in the WS, but he’s also been extremely erratic (though better lately). Bautista and Washburn are merely decent pitchers, and Bautista in particular is always a risk to get lit up. We obviously wouldn’t be using HoRam in October, but overall I just don’t see this rotation as up to the job. Lest I be accused of anti-M’s prejudice, I question the Yankees’ postseason prospects for the same reasons.
He might be a guy who just needs more days off over the course of the season.
Unfortunately, he’s been playing for managers who don’t seem to grasp the concept. Then again, that does mean more Willie (who, I must say, did a heck of a job at 3rd the other night).
Another great thing about the Mariners winning the World Series will be that catch phrases like “Funk Blast,†“Lollablueza,†and “Rally Fries†will become household words!
You think that would be great? Really?
(I find “funk blast” somewhat amusing, inasmuch as it suggests nothing so much as a euphemism for flatulence; but as to the others… Rally Fries at least has the virtue of being an apparently spontaneous creation without the dirty handprints of “marketing” but I think it’s unfortunate that it’s not more Seattle-centric. Rally Clams, perhaps, or Rally Ichirolls, might be more appropriate. More expensive, too, of course).
BTW, for all the flack Vidro takes for his size around here, Lopez seems to get a free pass – he looks like he could lose 20 pounds. That being said, Lopez leaves no complaints about his defense.
Lopez can look like the Michelin Man for all I care, as long as he gets to the balls he should get too. And he does. Vidro… not so much. Vidro isn’t quite as slow or lacking in agility as he looks, but he’s not an asset defensively and he’s no threat on the basepaths. As long as he keeps “hitting them where they ain’t” he’s a fine offensive addition, but we know that singles hitters tend to be streaky, and the team can’t really afford to have him “hit them where they are” for any extended length of time.
BTW, this is a pretty balanced look at how the AL is shaping up in the run for the postseason. It’s abundantly clear the M’s have the toughest schedule among all the contenders (which, should they make it, will make the victory all the sweeter).
Don’t you need at least 2, preferably 3, very strong starting pitchers to be built well as a playoff team?
Yep, but why do they have to put those in the contract in the first place? Maintaining top physical condition will improve performance and prevent injuries, which can mean millions of dollars in future contracts. If you’re into money, that should be motivation enough.
He’s young, and he may have been able to rely on pure talent for quite a while. Not everybody is as motivated to hit the stairmaster, or sees as much results when they do. And it’s hard to take the long view when you’re a kid. Who knows how Griffey’s career would’ve gone if he’d been as diligent about stretching and fitness as Ichiro?
49–Overall, of course, you’re absolutely right that the 2001 team, in particular, was a much better team than this one. But I think you and Dave are talking about different things. He’s talking about playoff capabilities. I think the huge differences between what wins in the regular season vs. the postseason aren’t always recognized. The 2001 pitching staff, in particular, was almost perfectly built for the regular season, but was a poor fit for the playoffs. Depth in the rotation is probably the biggest single factor in regular season success, and the 2001 team had that in spades: 5 very good, but not great, starters. In particular, their 4th and 5th starters were much better than most teams’. Unfortunately, in the playoffs, 5th starters are virtually useless, and 4th starters aren’t much help either. In the playoffs, what matters is having a couple of dominant starters, and the M’s didn’t have any. I think the near-miss against Cleveland is even more revealing than the Yankees’ easy win: a vastly inferior team nearly eliminated the M’s, primarily because of Colon and Sabathia. Against the Yankees, the M’s were disadvantaged in every pitching matchup except Moyer-El Duque, and of course that’s the one game they one. (Clemens against Paul Abbott???) So the point is that while the 2001 team was much better overall, it wasn’t well built for the postseason in some ways. I’m not totally convinced this one is either, but I can see Dave’s argument.
Don’t you need at least 2, preferably 3, very strong starting pitchers to be built well as a playoff team?
It certainly helps. But just some guys getting hot arms at the right time can do it. Just ask the Marlins, or any one of a number of other “unlikely” WS winners. Hell, just ask Jeff Weaver.
35- In regards to the easy schedule. Look how the Yankees got back into the race. Beating the same teams we are beating now. It is no coincidence that we hit an easy patch of teams and we jump 2 games up in the WC and 1 back of the division. We are doing what a good playoff team should do and that is beat the bad teams in series with a couple sweeps here and there.
The Yankees schedule in Sept is a joke which has me worried they could pull off a 20-8 month which is why we need to take care of business against the weak teams and the Angels in particular.
I’m not trying to argue that the M’s are perfectly built for the post-season. Obviously, this team has flaws, which we’ve covered extensively here.
I’m simply saying that this team is better prepared for the postseason than it is for the regular season. Between its high contact offense and dominant bullpen, the team has a couple of weapons that can perform well enough to carry a team in October, assuming they get some breaks and the rotation doesn’t sink them.
Basically, I think the teams strengths are emphasized in a short series and their weaknesses are diminished. In that sense, we’re built better for October than we are for April-September.
That doesn’t mean go out and bet $100 on the M’s to win it all, but the playoffs are already a pretty big crapshoot, and any small advantage we can get, I’ll take.
Who knows how Griffey’s career would’ve gone if he’d been as diligent about stretching and fitness as Ichiro?
Ichiro’s devotion to stretching and fitness goes beyond diligence into obsession. But I also think it will extend his career by years and why you can probably throw out those aging tables when it comes to predicting his decline.
But Lopez does look like he could stand to take up some of Ichiro’s daily routine and maybe lay off the post-game buffet every once in awhile. Maybe it’s still too small a sample size, but when a guy’s performance drops off dramatically after 80 or 90 games for two years in a row then maybe conditioning should be looked at as a factor.
Derek Jeter once said something to the effect of “great teams make the playoffs, hot teams win it” I definitely agree with Dave’s description of the playoffs as a crapshoot. While I am as excited as anyone about this years team and our chances, we’ve still got plenty of hoops to jump through.
On another note, I just recently was turned on to USSMariner, and I would like to say it is freakin sweet.
The list of inferior teams getting trophies from 1995 on is pretty long (the two-time World Champion Florida Marlins say “Hi!”).
Basically, I think the teams strengths are emphasized in a short series and their weaknesses are diminished.
Bingo. Unless you have an extra-inning game that really blows out the bullpen, you automatically get a rested bullpen to work with every other game.
Basically, I think the teams strengths are emphasized in a short series and their weaknesses are diminished.
But chance can play a larger role in a short series.
You only need to go back to last year’s St. Louis Cardinals to see a mediocre 83-win team that was playing lousy baseball down the stretch and is now flying the World Series championship banner. Anything can happen once you’re in.
55 (beckya57) – Jose Bautista does not play for the Mariners.
Does a great bullpen and great offense trump starting pitching in the playoffs? I honestly don’t know, it could or it couldn’t. I can’t think of a team in recent memory with the odd mix of very good/bad that the Mariners have at the moment.
All of the other teams (Boston, LA, Cleveland) must be terrified of us by now, because we’re an enigma of winningness which they just can’t figure out. We’re the darkhorse of the postseason, and everyone is scared of the darkhorse because you just don’t know what it might do.
For right now though, I’ll just be happy if we make it to the playoffs at all. What we do from there is another matter entirely.
66 You seem to think that those two claims are contradictory.
69- From my point of view the Tigers had a better pitching staff then the Cardinals and they sure didn’t win it. Besides the White Sox and the 1-2 punch of Randy Johnson/Curt Shilling I don’t remember any of the other teams since 2001 having just knock out pitching staffs that you had no shot against. The Marlins had a decent staff with Penny, Beckett, Willis but they were all young at the time and not the pitchers they are today.
I think we have enough pitching to last us through as the Cardinals showed last year.
I think the beauty of our staff (and this is definitely over-emphasizing a limited number of occurences) is the potential.
While it is unlikely we could go into the playoffs and get a Felix vs. Dice-k performance out of Felix, a Weaver vs. White Sox performance out of Weaver and a Batista vs. Angels (7/30) performance out of Batista in succession, it is POSSIBLE (though perhaps unlikely).
Almost all of our starters have the potential to shut teams down if they have their stuff and some control.
Call me an eternal optimist, but if we make the playoffs, who knows what our starting pitching could do?
Jose Bautista does not play for the Mariners
But he’d be a fine addition in the quest for the “all Jose” team
we’re an enigma of winningness
Wrapped in a mystery of hittingness
Surrounding up in a riddle of pitchingness
All rolled up and stuffed in Weaver’s bong.
I don’t know about the actual teams, but the fans in other cities are getting a little freaked out by the M’s, if blog postings are anything to go by. Yankees fans, in particular, are rather spooked — probably because they don’t entirely understand how their team is winning so much either (or whether it will continue). But it’s pretty amusing to see they’re still haunted by that Bloomquist-out-by-3-feet-but-called-safe call, or the game where the Yankees went up 5 runs in the first only to lose 15-11. Of course neither team is playing now like they were then, but that just makes it scarier for everyone. Still, I can’t remember a time when I more enjoyed reading Yankee fan blogs.
I do kind of worry about Felix in the postseason. He’s way too emotional and it affects his abilities sometimes, and I can only imagine that getting worse in a high pressure situation like a playoff game.
74: I don’t. It seems like Felix plays up to the competition.
The White Sox had one hell of a defense when they won it all, too. I know you’re not saying the M’s are perfectly built for the postseason, Dave, but I worry that our lack of defense in the outfield could kill us in a short series as effectively as stringing together a few hits could lift us.
Scraps I have an answer for that very worry you express and that’s Adam Jones.
He was called up when he was to get into the feel of a pennant race and have time to adjust to the level of higher competition.
He is eligible for the 25 man playoff roster and can should the OF of Ibanez/Ichiro/Guillen need to be shored up with a glove.
Mostly Ibanez since over the last several games Jones have primarly gone in a Defenensive replacement for him and as a pinch runner.Jones is being groomed to eventually take over LF.
77- I have a rebuttal…
John McLaren is not good.
HamNasty,
Will McLaren be back next year?
Results based analysis says: McLaren will be back next year.
I don’t understand all the grief that Lopez or Vidro keep getting here. Lopez is a solid defender and comes up with his share of base hits. Vidro has been hitting well all year and even better since the break. Granted he may not have the power numbers that most good DH’s have, but if Ichiro would get off his butt and steal a few more bases to get in scoring position, all those ‘singles’ that Vidro hits would turn into runs.
You know what the problem is? It’s attitude. Try taking a different approach when you watch the next few games and watch how many times those guys come through, rather than sit there and wait for the next mistake or missed opportunity so you can say “See, I told you”.
If either one of them goes on a Sexson-like slump, then we can all cry. Lopez hits eighth for a reason you know.
Think of this team like Jello; remove an ingredient (a player) and the whole thing changes. Maybe it won’t even be “Jello” anymore but rather a sloppy, liquid bucket of goo like Oakland.
I can sense the anxiety of many of you and hopefully you realize where it’s coming from. It stems from your (our) deep desire to want to WILL this team to victory.
Stay positive. We need your energy and enthusiasm focused on the ‘good’ rather than the bad or the ugly.
Ask yourself this: What separates Tiger Woods, a champion, from the other top 80 golfers on the PGA?
The skill level between 1 and 80 is very finite. What separates a champion is attitude and his mental approach to the game. You can’t quantify that with statistical data.
THIS team is loaded with guys who want (and know how) to win and be CHAMPIONS. Watch and see.
You know, you’ve swung by and said the same thing in about 8 different threads. We get it – you think you have some special insight into these guys character. We all think you’re a little crazy. Next topic, please.
Still, I can’t remember a time when I more enjoyed reading Yankee fan blogs.
I think they’re hilarious. Yankees fans are major league manic depressives. Last week they were sure the Yankees were going to catch the Red Sox and were already talking World Series. This week they’re sure they’ll never catch the Red Sox and maybe not even the Mariners and Joe Torre should be fired. If the team wins a couple of games in a row they’ll be talking World Series again.
And, yeah, they’re still obsessing about the Willie Bloomquist call. How strange is that?
Re 81: In brief, the “grief” given Lopez is due to his declining offensive production. It’s still a topic of discussion whether this is primarily due to declining skills or poor coaching. Pretty much everyone appreciates his defensive skills, and think it’s much too early to give up on him.
The “grief” about Vidro has been repeatedly documented in detail, so the lack of understanding you claim to have can be easily fixed by reviewing these discussions.
As to your diagnosis of our “problem”: you couldn’t be more wrong. Well, ok, you could be more wrong if you believed that common opinions about Jose Vidro were due to infection by a virus that causes its victims to uncontrollably mock singles hitters with no speed and little power.
Crazy man here. Thanks Dave for your insight. I thought personal attacks were against this blogs conduct policy.
Next topic: Will the Angels be able to sustain their record at home? That seems to be a real key as to whether we can overcome them or not.
Oh, god.
Vidro has no power because Ichiro doesn’t steal enough bases?
I cannot possibly roll my eyes hard enough.
I think the conduct policy applies to posters. I believe the authors, the people who run this place, can do whatever they want. It’s their house and their rules, and if you don’t like them you can leave.
I thought people had the common sense to actually read what’s been posted before.
Don’t troll and behave.
81 aka bigdad03
Nice platitudinous post. Are you really Bob Finnegan posting from retirement?
As for:
“Stay positive. We need your energy and enthusiasm focused on the ‘good’ rather than the bad or the ugly.”
Wow. Do you want us to win one for the Gipper, too? It ain’t over till it’s over? Don’t stop believin’? Nobody, and I mean nobody, comes into our house and pushes us around?
A mind is a terrible thing to waste.
81 “Think of this team like Jello; remove an ingredient (a player) and the whole thing changes. Maybe it won’t even be “Jello†anymore but rather a sloppy, liquid bucket of goo like Oakland.”
Or maybe:
Think of your body like Jello; remove an ingredient (your brain) and the whole thing changes. Or maybe not.
We’ve talked about the sustainability factor of those performances, but here’s the thing – this hyper aggressive approach comes with significant variance, but that variance comes with a built in upside – over any period of weeks, the M’s can absolutely blister the ball. This is basically the blueprint the White Sox used to score their way to a World Series title – swing the bat a lot, get a lot of hits, have parade.
Does this not contradict the recent post made about how there is no such thing as a “hot streak” for a player? Is there any reason to think the Ms, as a team, can blister the ball for any period of weeks any more than a single player can do that? You can find winning streaks/offensive streaks on any team during any part of the season due to random variance, why is this any more true for the Ms than any other team? Can we assign a predictive value to the team as a whole any more than we can do for a player? I don’t think so. The way I read it, it simply says that the Ms can get lucky and win. It reminds me of a friend with whom I once went to a casino, and he said: “you can win, but you have to be lucky.”
It might be helpful to think of it this way: if you have two teams, both with on-base percentages of .350, team A all with singles and team B with a ton of walks, you’ll see team A’s offensive performance contains a lot more variance: if they face a team with a bad defense, or a pitch-to-contact starter, they’re likely to batter them to death with singles, while team B will have a lot more success putting batters on base against good defense/power pitchers, and less success against bad defense/contact pitchers because they’re not putting the ball in play as much.
While they may both put the same number of baserunners on over a year, the A offense is almost certainly going to exhibit a lot more variance in how it does day-to-day, series-to-series, and even month-to-month than B does.
In practice, of course, it’s a lot more complicated
If you are saying that if you have two teams/players with a similar obp, then the one with the higher batting average to get there is probably going to score more runs, then I agree with you. Will team B really have “a lot more success” against the good defense/power pitchers? I don’t know, I still think team A with a higher avg but same obp would beat the same team more often than team B would. But Maybe not, I can see your argument. As for variance, maybe. I don’t know. I remember Jeff over at lookoutlanding forwarded his hypothesis that we were better against “good” pitchers who stayed in the zone, and sucked against crappy pitchers who had no control. It’s a fun hypothesis but I wouldn’t be convinced until a better study was made.
The idea that the M’s were “built for October play” then suggest that other playoff teams have bad defense/contact pitchers. I don’t think a) that’s likely, b) that’s what Dave is saying here. The variance factor, then, is the idea that the Ms somehow have more “upside” than other teams. I remember a similar thread on The Book blog (here:http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/speaking_of_having_no_clue_as_to_the_efficacy_or_wisdom_of_the_sacrifice_at/)
where Dave argued with others, Lichtman (and I with a short note) among them, he’d rather have Beltre than others with the same projection because he has greater variance in his results, and therefore though has the possibility to do worse than others, also has the same possibility to do better. (In that thread, by the way, Dave and Mitchel considered making a wager on who was right. Did Dave take up Mitchel’s offer? And who is winning that bet right now if he did?)
I think Beltre, then, becomes a good metaphor for the team as a whole. And basically, what Dave is saying is that if the Ms get lucky, they will have a better chance of winning than if another team gets lucky. Okay. Maybe. But to think that we are “built for october” because we might get lucky is ridiculous. Any team can get lucky. If the Yankees get lucky, then forget about it. I’m saying, thank god the Ms are luckier than other teams this year.
I hope this made sense. It’s 4 in the morning and I’m only up cos I just got dumped.
Also, if you are going with this reasoning, then you are arguing that we should be leaving Sexson in the lineup, because his variance/upside is higher than Broussard’s. Then again maybe Sexson really is just a turd now.