Brett Tomko
Not convinced that Horacio Ramirez should still be in the rotation (yea, me either) and still looking for potentially useful replacements? Well, we’ve got another one.
The Dodgers designated Brett Tomko for assignment this afternoon. He’s been a disappointment this year, running a 5.80 ERA while splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He’s never lived up to his reputation coming through the minors, but in recent years, he’d been a serviceable pitcher, including running a 4.73 ERA last year, 4.48 the year before, and 4.04 back in 2004.
Has he just declined to the point where he’s no longer useful? Let’s take a look.
2004: 7.7% BB, 13.1% K, 42% GB, 11% HR/Fly, 69.4% LOB%, .305 BABIP, 4.78 xFIP
2005: 7.0% BB, 13.9% K, 40% GB, 11% HR/Fly, 70.5% LOB%, .322 BABIP, 4.65 xFIP
2006: 5.9% BB, 15.5% K, 38% GB, 11% HR/Fly, 67.2% LOB%, .298 BABIP, 5.03 xFIP
2007: 8.8% BB, 16.6% K, 41% GB, 11% HR/Fly, 62.1% LOB%, .338 BABIP, 4.68 xFIP
Pretty consistent, eh? Walks are up a little bit this year, but so are the strikeouts, and the downward trend in his GB% has reversed, indicating that his stuff isn’t sliding into uselessness. He’s not giving up any more home runs than usual either, so he hasn’t turned into a guy who is just throwing meatballs down the heart of the plate.
So why the high ERA? A lot of balls in play turning into hits and an inability to strand guys once they’re on base. Guess what – those aren’t nearly the repeatable skills that the walk, strikeout, and groundball rates are, and they paint a totally different picture than ERA does. His skillset hasn’t changed much at all – just the results have, and if you’ve read the blog for any length of time, you know that skillsets predict future performance far better than past results, especially in things like batting average on balls in play and stranding runners.
Basically, Brett Tomko’s 5.80 ERA is the exact opposite of Jarrod Washburn’s 3.20 ERA back in 2005. Stranding runners wasn’t a repeatable skill then and it’s not one now. There’s no reason to believe that Tomko will continue stranding just 62% of his baserunners going forward, and when you adjust your expectations for a normal strand rate, Tomko profiles out as a perfectly adequate 5th starter.
In fact, I could put together a rather compelling case that Tomko is a very similar pitcher to Miguel Batista, and projections for their performance the rest of the season should be nearly identical.
Would you pick up a Miguel Batista clone to replace Horacio Ramirez if he was made available for nothing? Yea, me too. Horacio Ramirez has never been as good as Brett Tomko is right now, and this is yet another possible move the M’s could make to strengthen their team for the stretch run.
Bring back Brett Tomko.
I’m for it…
Except that Tomko is a nutbag headcase and hates Seattle to no end. It wasn’t just Lou Piniella he hated.
No. I never want to see Brett Tomko in the uniform of any team I support again. Watching him is like watching a collage of all the worst elements of Meche, Pineiro, Ho, and, for good measure, Julian Tavarez all rolled into one putrescent glob.
Dave..how much does changing leagues work into the equation here? AL is a much tougher league on pitcher no?
Very interesting. An experienced, semi-talented 5th starter for free? Why not?
Whoa. Really? It’s really gotten to that point? Where we’re advocating to pick up Brett Tomko? I think… I’ve got to sit down.
Decent point, Churchill. I’d always heard he hated it here, but thought 80% of it was Piniella. If it was 50-50, he may not do it.
But hey, dude needs a job, though other teams are probably making some calls right now.
Cha Seung Baek is probably going to get the nod in place of Ramirez, should the M’s make the decision that Ramirez is no longer the best they can throw out there.
And didn’t the Dodgers DFA Tomko to make room for Wells? There’s a chain reaction of freely available talent happening while we continue to let Horacio pitch meaningful games.
Nutbag headcase or not, he’s not a free agent, and if the M’s trade for him, his options would be to retire or join a team in a pennant race and try to pitch his way into a nice offseason contract. I’m pretty sure he’d go with option B.
And, look, I know Tomko wasn’t great when he was here, but that doesn’t change his skillset. There’s no argument for Horacio Ramirez being a better pitcher than Tomko, and going forward with an inferior pitcher just because you disliked the guy six years ago doesn’t isn’t a reason to miss out on a potential upgrade in a playoff chase.
I’m not saying Tomko wouldn’t come here, because if he doesn’t get interest elsewhere, he sure might.
But he has personal issues with this city that stems back to when he was here as a player and those problems still reside in his head.
Yeah, he didn’t like Lou because Lou told him he was a wuss, soto speak, which he is.
I don’t believe for a second that Tomko can help the Mariners much, if any at all. There is a chance he could, but there’s also the chance that he’s worse than Ramirez, too.
Jason, you know I like you, but you’re letting your personal opinion of the guy get in the way of the evidence.
Dave I agree with you here Tomko would be a definate upgrade from Ramirez and he is very similar to Batista in style and talent.
He is also familar with the M’s cause he played for us some time back.He is a standard #5 SP he’ll give as close to 6 innings as he can while not putting you totally unable to make a effort to maintain or regain a lead.
I hope the Dodgers aren’t looking for more than PTBNL and/or cash to aquire him.
Good point, Jason. I’d been comparing Tomko to Feierabend in my head, but I’d completely forgotten about Baek. I’ll take my chances with Cha-Seung.
He’s not a free agent… yet.
And Dave, we just disagree about what Tomko might still be capable of doing on the mound. You clearly think he’s got a good chance to be better than Ramirez. I don’t.
Right, but my opinion is based on the skills he’s shown the last five years, and yours is based on thinking he’s a wuss.
I don’t have anything personal on Tomko. And evidence is evidence, not proof.
Then let Dave’s love fest for Brett Tomko reign supreme.
Evidence is the best information we have to go off of. I’ll take the predictive power of skillsets over pretty much anything else. It’s not perfect, certainly, but there’s no case to be made that Tomko isn’t significantly better than Ramirez. Even 100% healthy Baek isn’t better than Tomko, and we don’t have 100% healthy Baek.
But what about the league change? Or have we pretty much just agreed that pitching 1/2 the time in Safeco = pitching in the NL?
NL league average: 3.3 BB/G, 6.6 K/G, 1.02 HR/G
Tomko: 3.4 BB/G, 6.5 K/G, 1.07 HR/G
He’s basically nailing the NL league averages right on the nose. Yes, there’s a downgrade from the NL to the AL, but it doesn’t turn league average into useless.
I figure Tomko would roughly equal Contreras. Assuming HoRam doesn’t change, Tomko could be anywhere from 5 to 15 runs better than HoRam down the stretch. The big difference is Tomko comes at a much more economical price assuming LA takes the usual suspect in trade. The Ms could even jettison him after they win the world series if they find his $4M ’08 salary to be undesirable.
I love the notion that an argument is invalid because a projection isn’t a guarantee….
Nothing like discrediting an argument by simply refusing to acknowledge one was made…
Two titans of the M’s blogosphere going head-to-head!
*grabs popcorn to watch melee*
Churchill and I get along well, so this won’t be the brutal war you’re hoping for. I’d have been a little less blunt in my replies if I didn’t know him as well as I do.
He and I disagree about almost everything except the awesomeness of Carlos Triunfel.
As a starter, though, Dave, Tomko’s numbers aren’t near the league average in K/G, BB/G.
I don’t have the inclination to look them up at the moment, as I’m starving and care more right now about living, but It’d be interesting to put Tomko’s three-year splits as a starter versus the league averages, rather than his overall numbers.
Because it’s just fact that some guys can’t hack it as a starter and aren’t so bad in relief. Just ask Mark Lowe who says, and I quote, “I just couldn’t ever focus past the second or third inning.”
I’m not saying that’s Tomko, specifically, I just think the STARTER numbers would be more interesting than his overall trends.
He’s basically nailing the NL league averages right on the nose.
In terms of league comps, I’m under the impression that the NL west has some brutally awful offenses.
In terms of runs scored, SDG, SF and AZ rank 13, 14 and 15 respectively. These three teams represent 1/4 of his total IP over the season.
Does that enter into the equation?
And, to turn away from stats and look at actual skills, he can still get the ball up there at 93-94 mph. So says MLB Gameday from August 1, ’07, anyway.
We can go to war here, it just won’t be about Tomko.
Maybe we can argue about EXACTLY HOW UNBELIEVABLE Triunfel is going to be.
Dave says he’s going to be really great. I say he’s going to be a perennial all-star.
I like this option better than Contreras, just based on the salary numbers involved.
I think that trotting HoRam out there every five days to stink up the joint is one of the main things that could keep the Mariners out of the plaoyffs.
And I don’t think Baek is the answer even once he gets healthy, or rather healthiER.
The totally awesome Baseball-Reference makes it easy. His OPS against is 120 points higher as a reliever than as a starter thanks to a ridiculous .403 BABIP when coming out of the pen this year.
This is the opposite of last year, when he was significantly better in relief, which is what we’d expect, since relieving is far easier.
But Tomko, even as a starter, has still shown more than enough to be a decent 5th starter. And the M’s may be a decent 5th starter away from winning the division.
The ranks I listed for Runs Scored (for SDG, SF and AZ) were among NL teams. Among MLB teams, these three teams rank ahead of only the ChiSox & Nationals.
Isn’t that a problem when evaluating his season numbers?
Dave says he’s going to be really great. I say he’s going to be a perennial all-star.
Aren’t they the same thing? Perennial all-stars are really great.
27, maybe those teams score so few runs because they’ve had to face the awesomeness that is Brett Tomko. Heh-heh.
Churchill,
I’m not seeing a huge pattern in his starter/reliever stats. this year, he was much better as a starter. last year, as a reliever. The n values aren’t big enough to tell us anything meaningful anyway, at least not for 2004 and 5 or so.
Anyway, why oh why does Cha Seung Baek take such a beating around here? His FIP and xFIP are much better than Tomko’s (or Ramirez’s), and he’s been the victim of an absolutely brutal strand rate. You want a free improvement to the 5 hole, there you go. I think the odds that he’s better going forward than Tomko or Wells are pretty darn good. I don’t mind signing Tomko as Baek insurance, but I just don’t get why you think Baek sucks so much.
The average hitter Tomko has faced is hitting .255/.329/.404 this year. The average hitter Ramirez has faced is hitting .265/.337/.411.
That entire difference is the pitcher/DH tradeoff, which we’re already accounting for when we talk about the differences in leagues.
Anyway, why oh why does Cha Seung Baek take such a beating around here?
Because I’m not a fan of 86 MPH fastballs.
His FIP and xFIP are much better than Tomko’s
This year, but that’s 64 innings. His stuff and previous performances tell us that he’s not that good.
You want a free improvement to the 5 hole, there you go.
Well, there’s also the issue of his massively questionable health.
I just don’t get why you think Baek sucks so much.
I don’t think he sucks so much. He’s better than HoRam, no doubt. He’s just not a major league quality starter. Tomko is.
Man, when there are well-reasoned differences in opinion amongst the main guys we all find highly credible (DMZ, Dave, Jason, Jeff S in particular), to me that adds exponential value to the already excellent content on the core Ms blogosphere. More please. Don’t be bashful.
Also, Churchill isn’t nearly as hungry as I am – I’ve got the three hour time difference on him and I still haven’t eaten dinner, so I’ll let the rest of you guys battle this one out.
Tomko in ’08! Triunfel in ’10! Morse and Baek never!
You guys are forgetting that Ramirez is already one start into “figuring it out” or “getting going” or whatever they called it. Problem solved!
Tomko in ‘08! Triunfel in ‘10! Morse and Baek never!
Tomko in ’08? My God, surely you aren’t advocating that he take up a rotation spot beyond this year, are you?
“Because I’m not a fan of 86 MPH fastballs.”
Are you planning an amendment to the ‘evaluating pitching talent’ post that deals with when to throw out xFIP and just use the radar gun?
“This year, but that’s 64 innings. His stuff and previous performances tell us that he’s not that good.
I think you’re on to something. Clearly, he’s a different pitcher than he was (from a FIP perspective) in years past. He was totally lucky in 2006. But his one marketable skill – command – is now showing itself in MLB. To me, he’s pitching more like *himself* in 2007. He’s not K’ing people, but he’s not walking them. Do you think *that’s* liable to change going forward? I’m legitimately curious.
“Well, there’s also the issue of his massively questionable health.”
On this, I think we’re in total agreement. *Assuming he’s healthy* i think Baek is clearly better. But that’s a big assumption right now.
“He’s just not a major league quality starter. “
Someone name me the M’s starter with the best xFIP on the team outside of Felix…
According to the media noise, the Ms have been looking for pitching help for a while, combing the waiver wire, etc… let’s see if that’s actually true.
To me, this move has very little downside. However, if Tomko did have an issue with Lou, will dealing with Johnny Mac be a reminder of those days?
They’ve worked with HoRam on his pitching mechanics. All is well.
Just as long as they don’t try to pick up Bob Wickman.
OT and subject to censureship [deleted, OT and ill-spelled]
I always figure a struggling NL pitcher would be a GREAT fit for a contending AL team. Yeah…that’s the ticket.
Actually, I saw him pitch in SD in April, and he pitched a good game. Of course, the Padres aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, and they hit him with a 3-run fourth.
Congratulations. If you said “0%”, you win.
Personally, I would give RRS a shot at the fifth starter job. Send him out there once with the expectation that he will give you 5 innings. That’s more than what you get from HoRam on average.
Tomko looks a lot better in relief this year as well. I’m not sure how to calculate BB and K as percentages but as a reliever he’s 4.5:1 K:BB and basically 10K/9IP. As a starter he’s just better than 1.5:1 K:BB and 6K/9IP. He has been more homer prone as a relief pitcher but I assume that’s luck/variance.
He’s not as good as a SP as his overall numbers this year suggest — though 2004 and 2005 in the OP are almost all as starter and he was about that level. But he’s still an upgrade from HoRam.
That said, if the M’s didn’t touch Wells, why would they touch someone who’s worse?
I get the sick feeling they’re going to be sticking it out with HoRam.
They’ve worked with HoRam on his pitching mechanics. All is well.
Please tell me you’re kidding. You seem like a generally reasonable guy, even if you think we’re wrong about everything, but you can’t actually believe that to be true, can you?
52. I believe that’s sarcasm.
Just make sure Tomko brings his wife to the games.
I’m thinking that was dripping with a little sarcasm…
RRS will surely not start for the M’s this year — or ever, really. Just because he went four innings one time doesn’t mean he’s now a capable big-league starter. It was 57 pitches, or roughly half of what you want out of a starter. Can he really go five, six or seven innings? I think not, especially when he’s been pitching one- and two-inning sets all season.
I really wish this were an option, because I want to see Ramirez out of the rotation at essentially any cost, but I just can’t see it happening. RRS is a reliever for a reason.
My first reaction on you, Dave, contemplating the Mariners acquiring Brett Tomko is, ACK! I still carry the impression that he’s a head case, both past tense with the Mariners, and present tense.
And he’s still an “emotional guy”, sorta like Mike Mussina is when one of the Yankee fielders behind him boots a ball and he has to pitch a 4th out (see: controversy earlier this week “it wasn’t YOUR fault” said to the HP umpire).
See the pertinent part of this article from the LA Times regarding the game Tuesday:
“Staked to a 3-0 lead after two innings, Tomko gave up two runs in the third on a single, double and a scoring fly ball and two more in the fourth on Aaron Rowand’s two-run home into the first row of the left-field stands.
Then he failed to get an out in the fifth when the Phillies loaded the bases on a pair of singles and an error.
The error may have upset Tomko since he walked the next hitter, Pat Burrell, on five pitches, forcing in a run and leaving the frustrated pitcher barking at plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth.
That would be the last batter Tomko would face but by then the damage was done.
“There’s no time to — I don’t know how to say this — if there’s a bad call, you’ve just got to let it go,” catcher Russell Martin said. “I know he’s battling. It’s hard when the record is what it is right now.”
I can just see Tomko’s reaction when Lopez or Betancourt get a little fancy with their footwork or throws, and Tomko’s “forced” to pick them up…
#44: rsrobinson Says:
They’ve worked with HoRam on his pitching mechanics. All is well.
Sarcasm tags are your friend. Use them.
but a heck of an artist
58 – Oh, but the deadpan comment worked so well. I mean, really, how funny is it if you have to *tell* people it’s sarcasm. I thought the delivery was perfect.
Kudos to rsrobinson for a well delivered line.
They also figured out Ho was tipping his pitchers. He’ll be fine :p
His pitchers??? Hmmm. That came out wrong. I wonder if it’s something like Washburn, Batista, Weaver, and Felix beating him up for his lunch money. Lol.
Agreed, agreed. Takes a fine hand to do that with a straight face…
Hey, maybe we can trade something for Jose Mesa too!
Jokes aside, I don’t think this is a terrible idea, despite my gut reaction. My gut reaction said bringing back Ibanez was a terrible mistake as well, and (even with struggles this year) that was proved wrong. Tomko really wasn’t that bad, compared to the train wrecks that have called Seattle home…and, well, certain pitchers this year would need to be reduced a couple hundred casualties to count as a “train wreck.”
Yeah, the term “Brazilian Air Disaster” comes to mind.
Dave, as a longtime reader and a first time contributor to this site I have to vehemently disagree with you, and side with Churchill here.
Yes, I will agree with you in saying that Ramirez has been pretty brutal this season, as shown by his 59 ERA+. But it’s not like Tomko has been much better with a 77. I think this stat is a pretty important one to look at, and I also think you’d agree.
In fact, the last time Tomko had an ERA+ at or above 100 was 2004 (which was one of two times during his 11 year career). For Ramirez, the last time he topped 100 in ERA+ was also 2004.
If you want to take it a step further and want to try to predict whether Tomko would be a significant improvement for what would be 7-8 starts the rest of the way, let’s take a look at the last five starts from both HoRam and Tomko:
Tomko: 26 IP, 20 ER, 30 HA, 15 BB, 14 K, 6.92/1.73
HoRam: 27.1 IP, 24 ER, 39 HA, 13 BB, 12 K, 7.90/1.54
Now I’m not going to suggest that HoRam is going to be solid down the stretch — actually I don’t believe that. But, there’s a reason that the Dodgers believe taking a chance on Boomer Wells over Tomko. I’d prefer the Mariners dance with the girl the brung them as opposed to trying to make a deal on a whim for a guy that’s not likely to be any vast improvement.
Right now we’re 15-6 in August, and we’re winning games in a lot of different ways — come from behinds, blowouts, nailbiters. I’m not sold on us completely, but I think making a move for a reject starter from a team that’s barely treatind water in the NL race would be a bad idea.
Let’s just hope McLaren can keep the pitch counts of Washburn / Batista under 100 for the next few weeks and keep them rested for mid to late September.
66 – You don’t want to take a chance on Tomko because he is “not likely to be any vast improvement”?
At least IS room to improve with Tomko.
He is possibly better, probably inexpensive, and at worse the same. Why the heck not try it?
Brett Tomko is no superstar by any means…but when HoRam has, for the most part, been about as effective this year as the automatic slow-pitch machine at a batting cage, even he’s an improvement.
No, I don’t think there’s any reason to use ERA+ to project pitcher performance. No, I don’t think there’s anything instructive that can be learned by looking at their last five starts. No, I don’t think that we should care that the Dodgers misevaluated Tomko.
Tomko > Ramirez. There’s not an argument to be made otherwise. If you want to stick with Ramirez, you want the inferior pitcher.
Would a fella like Joe Kennedy be worth a flyer or has he regressed into another HoRam?
Alright Dave, here’s why I don’t think Tomko > Ramirez for Seattle at the time being: whatever pitcher you go after right now, you’re going after to get 7-8 starts out of. If we get a servicable replacement for HoRam they’ll surely be jettisoned come the postseason (provided we make it there) for a four man rotation.
That being said, you want the guy in the rotation who’ll give you the best chance of winning as many of those 7-8 starts as possible. Right?
When HoRam pitches this year, the Mariners as a team are 9-6. Is that because he’s kept us in ball games? Well, not too many ball games sure. Is that because the offense realizes they have to come to life when HoRam takes the bump? Maybe. But, we’re winning games that he starts.
In fact, HoRam has five quality starts this year — by the way the Mariners won all of those games. Basically he’ll give you a quality start 1/3 times he takes the mound. Let’s say the other two-thirds of the time he starts the Mariners have an uphill battle on their hands and win just 25-33% of those starts, he’ll still be a 50-50 pitcher the rest of the year. So we probably go 4-4 (maybe 3-5) in his last eight starts of the season.
Tomko on the other hand has six quality starts, which is 40% of the time he takes the mound. By the same logic Tomko gives us a 4-4 record most likely as well.
It really won’t be incredible pitching out of the 5-hole that wins us the division or the wild card. It’ll be timely hitting that scores runs consistently, pitching that keeps us in the game more often than not, and a bullpen that continues to shut down opponents.
I for one do not think bringing in Tomko — a guy who by his own admission was not a fan of Seattle during his time here — is going to provide us with a better shot at making it to October.
Here’s to a great start by HoRam tonight and another Mariner win!
If you haven’t already, read the Evaluating Pitcher Talent post in the left hand corner. You’re using tools to predict the future that have no predictive value.
52: Yes, Dave, haven’t you heard that they’ve worked on HoRam’s mechanics so he’s all better now?
/sarcasm
I just read about Wickman being DFAed. Sadly, isn’t it more like the M’s to go after him than Tomko? For my money, btw, I would love Tomko over HoRam.
And you’re trying to tell us that acquiring a new fifth starter to make eight starts is going to make or break the Mariners season. I just don’t buy it. Like it or not, the Mariners have a winning record when Horacio takes the mound. Yes I realize that has more to do with the fact that the Mariners offense has been producing for him, but you can’t argue with 9-6.
You also can’t get past the fact that anybody the Mariners go after now is going to make a maximum of eight starts the rest of the way. The risks of picking up a guy like Tomko who by his own admission is not a Seattle fan far outweigh the potential gain. Do you think the Mariners go 2-6 in HoRam’s last 8 starts? Do you think they go 4-4? 5-3? What?
Whatever it is, how do you purport to tell me or anyone else for that matter that a guy like Tomko is statistically significantly better for the Mariners right now for a maximum of eight starts than what we currently have. If anything, Tomko having a better record than HoRam for a set of eight starts would be dumb luck, and I for one am not willing to take a chance on dumb luck, and the possibility of MAYBE one more win to bring in a guy who was an absolute dick while he was in Seattle.
An arm like Tomko might reasonably be expected to provide a 10 run upgrade over HoRam in 8 starts. Right now the Ms are exactly a win out of first place.
Given the stakes, an upgrade of that magnitude is definitely worth chasing.
To me it’s not even a debatable concept really. What I’d love instead is to be a fly on the wall during the strategic debates in the FO and actually see how they’re evaluating Tomko and many of their other recent options.
Reasonably expected? I don’t see it. Frankly it’s a crapshoot. What happens if you get Tomko and his first time out he goes 4 and two-thirds, gives up 5 earned? Does he get a second start? What if he tosses a gem but then has two terrible outings?
I don’t think it’s a no-brainer here. As great as “predictive values” might be, in eight starts anything could happen. Yes, I’d probably be a bit more content if Horacio wasn’t taking the mound every fifth day, but I’m not feeling noticably better handing the ball to Brett Tomko. I’m sorry, I’m just not with you here.
Sure anything can happen in 8 starts but that’s hardly a formula for an effective projection system.
The whole eight start thing is a red herring.
We’re going to flip a coin eight times. Heads you win, tails I win. I have two coins. One is weighted so that it comes out heads 60% of the time. The other is weighted so it comes out tails 60% of the time.
Which coin are you going to choose?
There’s no argument here. If you pick the one weighted to come up tails, you’re making a bad choice, regardless of what happens after that.
I guess I just do not understand the anger against those of us who just want to play better odds. We are NOT saying definitively that Tomko will put us over the top. We only believe that we will be getting a better chance to win on any given day he starts rather than if HoRam was starting. If there are 8 more starts for that slot, then yes, I would love to start someone who gives me a better chance of winning on each of those individual days.
So looking back at Dave’s original post, ask yourself, “Would you pick up a Miguel Batista clone to replace Horacio Ramirez if he was made available for nothing?” Or better yet, do you feel better about a Batista start than a HoRam start?
We are all wanting the same thing here. Enough Mariner victories to get us into the playoffs. If you feel HoRam is trusty enough to lean on during the stretch run, well you have much more faith than I do.
I don’t know Dave, I just don’t see this as a 60/40 thing. I realize you’re not giving up your position, and I’m not going to be convinced that Tomko’ll somehow be a magnificent upgrade. Either way, I don’t see us doing a thing. It’s not like Bavasi’s a wheeler and dealer anyways. Where’s Pat Gillick when you need him?
Right – you don’t see Tomko > Ramirez. But at least you’re arguing the right topic again. The whole “it’s only eight starts” distraction just takes away from the discussion.
If Ramirez’s run distribution had been even, rather than massively inconsistent, and the M’s were something like 3-12 in his starts, would you still be advocating for him to be in the rotation? I’m pretty sure the answer is no.
Essentially, your argument breaks down to this: run distribution is not random, and the fact that Ramirez has been massively inconsistent is predictive of how he’ll do going forward.
I say that argument is fundamentally flawed and flies in the face of all the research done on the subject. I’m not really arguing Ramirez/Tomko with you – I’m arguing evaluative process.
No one knows the future, but what we can know is probability. Failing to take advantage of any real upgrade (and when you evaluate pitchers by their skills, Tomko is clearly a big upgrade from Ramirez) in a pennant race is an organizational failure.
I’m suggesting that we shouldn’t let meaningless random performances affect how we understand talent evaluation. I’ve got a massive load of history on my side that says that you can’t expect a team to win half the games started by a pitcher as bad as Horacio Ramirez. The Mariners have gotten fantastically lucky to be 9-6 when he pitches.
Counting on luck to win the pennant, when you could instead count on talent, is a bad idea.
Dave, from the original post —
the downward trend in his GB% has reversed, indicating that his stuff isn’t sliding into uselessness.
This seems like taking too much stock in recent performance. His GO/AO has been on the decline for several years and his slight increase in K% is most likely the result of pitching from the pen. It’s seems more likely to me that this is a blip on his continuing downward trend than a true reversal.
(I’m not arguing he isn’t better than Ramirez, rather that too much is being read into this year’s performance to say his stuff isn’t getting worse.)