Re-visiting playoff odds
A while back, I wrote up a short post on how the path to the playoffs for the M’s likely ran through the AL West, as the wild card competition was so stiff. Since then, the M’s have reeled off a set of huge wins, their rivals have slowed up a little, and suddenly this looks much different: they’re 3 games ahead of the Yankees in the wild card race, five ahead of Detroit. And they’re only one back of the Angels, making the AL West pennant a much easier task.
Which, as they say, is why they play the games.
The really good news as that the space between the M’s and the Yankees provides a huge cushion, much larger at this stage of the season than it might seem. Say you think the M’s, for all their success, are only a .500 team, and the Yankees much better (Yankees fans certainly seem to think this).
If the M’s go 18-18 in all their remaining games (including make ups), they’ll finish out at 91-71 (!). That means the Yankees need to go 20-14 to tie, which is extremely hard, even with the games against the Devil Rays in there. Unless the M’s go into a severe slump, they’ll force the Yankees to play extremely well to have a chance at this.
BP’s playoff odds put the M’s chances of getting into the playoffs right now at 59%, about equally split between winning the AL West and getting the wild card berth. I can’t remember when the M’s chances to get into the post-season looked this good. That’s great news.