The Value of Adrian Beltre
Now that the season is effectively over, we can turn our attention from the daily matchups of the next game to bigger picture analysis. Today’s subject: Adrian Beltre.
Longtime readers will know that we’ve never hid our affection for Beltre. During the run-up to the 2004 offseason, I threw my entire support behind signing Beltre, and called the deal “a stunning accomplishment” for the Mariners. We were all optimistic about Beltre’s performance heading into the 2005 season.
Obviously, that first year was rough. He couldn’t have started his Mariner career any worse. His first two months in Seattle, he received 199 at-bats and hit a staggeringly terrible .236/.264/.357. Since most of baseball was already convinced that his 2004 season was a massive fluke, the early struggles simply fit into the already written narrative about a bad player who had a contract year and was now one of the worst free agent signings in baseball history. The story of the Adrian Beltre contract was written two months into a five year deal, and in general, the national perception of the contract hasn’t changed much at all, as Beltre is often referred to as overpaid or disappointing. MLB.tv users will remember the last Rangers series in Texas for Tom Grieve’s constant whipping of Beltre in particular.
Well, that story was wrong then and it’s wrong now. The only better third baseman in the American League is some guy named Rodriguez who is running away with the MVP award and is already practicing his hall of fame induction speach. The only Mariner players who helps puts wins on the board with more regularity are Ichiro and J.J. Putz, and they both can lay a claim to being the best in baseball at their respective positions.
Adrian Beltre is a star, an underrated asset whose remaining two years on his contract are nothing short of a bargain. Don’t believe me? Look at the 2006 performances, and the contracts signed, by four very similar hitters during the last year:
Aramis Ramirez: .291/.352/.561, 126 OPS+, $15 million a year for 5 years
Alfonso Soriano: .277/.351/.560, 132 OPS+, $18 million per year for 7 years
Carlos Lee: .300/.355/.540, 125 OPS+, $16 million per year for 6 years
Vernon Wells: .303/.357/.542, 126 OPS+, $18 million per year for 7 years
The market value seems pretty clear – the .300 hitter with power skillset, usually providing offense that is about 20 percent above league average, has been valued at between $15-$18 million per season for 5-7 years. Let’s look at how those guys are performing this year.
Aramis Ramirez: .315/.370/.539, 129 OPS+
Alfonso Soriano: .295/.332/.529, 116 OPS+
Carlos Lee: .298/.353/.519, 121 OPS+
Vernon Wells: .251/.307/.418, 87 OPS+
Besides Wells, they’re all performing right in line with expectations, showing the same basic skillset and performance level that their teams thought they were getting when they gave them long term, big money contracts.
Now, take a look at Adrian Beltre’s 2007 line: .283/.331/.503, 122 OPS+
The raw numbers are a little bit lower, but that’s Safeco Field for you. At home, Beltre’s hitting .270/.332/.430, but away from Safeco, it’s .295/.330/.567. From an offensive production standpoint, 2007 Beltre is basically indistringuishable from Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, or Aramis Ramirez, and he’s several notches ahead of Vernon Wells.
And that’s not even getting into the non-offense values. There’s the defense, which is obviously a significant factor in Beltre’s favor. There’s the health – he hasn’t missed any real time due to injury in six years. And, to top it off, he has age on his side as he doesn’t turn 29 until after opening day next year.
What would a 28-year-old with Beltre’s performance record command as a free agent this winter? Not even accounting for possible inflation, it’s almost impossible to believe that Beltre would do significantly worse than last year’s crop of similar hitters. $15 million a year for 5 years would be the starting spot for negotiations, and it’s not hard to see him getting into the 6 years, $100 million range that Carlos Lee ended up receiving.
The Mariners should be extremely happy to have Adrian Beltre already under contract for the next two years at the relative pittance of just $24 million dollars. He’s a terrific player, one of the best third baseman in baseball, and despite what the national media may tell you, he’s underpaid relative to his market value.
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Thank you. I have saved this link for future arguments.
I know a lot can happen in the future, Dave, but assuming things overall, the market and his talent, stay roughly where they are, should the M’s consider a Beltre extension when his deal expires?
The Tigers’ radio broadcasters were raving about Beltre (and Yuni) yesterday, mostly focused on his defense and his arm. Some recognize his value.
I like Beltre a lot and do think he’s underrated both offensively and defensively.
That being said, I wasn’t around these parts back when he signed but I was 100% against the M’s signing him at the time. I wanted Beltran patrolling CF a lot more than I wanted Beltre at 3B (partly to make up for the OF power deficiency you get with Ichiro in right, which now obviously isn’t an issue). Furthermore, as much as he might be “undervalued” now, I still think they paid too much for him at the time (due to him coming off the gigantic 2004 with LA).
In any case, I do like the contract now and am happy we’ve got him for a couple more years. I also hope he’ll get a Gold Glove this year, which I think is highly deserved.
I’m curious how Beltre’s #s compare to those other free agents across the last 3. Vernon Wells had a sub par year so it’s not completely fair to compare one of Adrian’s best years in the last 3 to Wells’ worst year, if you are comparing their overall value since signing.
I know a lot can happen in the future, Dave, but assuming things overall, the market and his talent, stay roughly where they are, should the M’s consider a Beltre extension when his deal expires?
That’s a little tougher. Obviously, I’m a big Beltre guy, but in two years, he’ll be heading into his age 31 season, so a long term contract becomes significantly more risky. Considering the presence of Carlos Triunfel in the system, as well as the organization’s right-handed hitter heaviness and Safeco’s dimensions, giving him a 4-6 year deal that covers his mid-30s might not be a great idea.
I’d probably consider broaching the idea of an extension this winter. I’d see if I could get an extra year or two tacked on to the end of the deal at current market rates – so, perhaps, offering him $15 million a year for both 2010 and 2011. It’s unlikely that Scott Boras would delay Beltre’s last big paycheck by a couple of years, but it’s a subject worth discussing, at least.
Depending how the rest of this year goes, offering him an extension this winter could be great timing psychologically. I see your point about signing him for another five years or so after this contract is up, but if there’s any way we can add two or maybe three years to his current deal, even with the price going up, I’d be all in favor of that.
Of course, part of my thinking is that, from a distance (I’d hoped to be moving into MWL territory this summer, but it didn’t happen), it looks probable that Triunfel will outgrow the infield; Dave, what do you think the odds really are that he ends up at 3B instead of LF/RF?
huh. Tim Kurkjian just said that Beltre is “pretty much untradeable”.
and he didn’t mean the M’s shouldn’t trade him.
All of that hard data not withstanding, he provides the most jollies per dollar of anyone on the roster, with his check-swing appeal to first and general likability. Easily my favorite Mariner not named Felix.
I’m constantly baffled how defense is completely overlooked by the guys at ESPN. They see non-2004 numbers and assume he is a bust, without ever looking into this defensive prowess. Perhaps he needs to dive headfirst into the stands in Yankee Stadium. Surely that would cement his standing as a brilliant glove…
it has been interesting to see that this year we are also gettng more stories of Beltre taking Lopez & Betancourt in-hand, while noting that he is only a few years older than they are…
so, does Alex win his first GG at third base, due to his phenomenal offensive year?
Well, yes, undtradeable…but that’s because of the usual veteran love, surface stats love that most fans, sports writers and even GMs have.
That’s the whole point of Moneyball…look for the undervalued packages and get them. Even as large as it is, I think that Beltre’s contract is a tad undervalues.
#8 — Again, the posters and commenters here at USSM know much more about the Mariners than national writers. I like Kurkjian, but he knows very little about the M’s or Beltre and has spent zero time actually analyzing his performance and skillset.
The ESPN guys rarely take ballpark adjustments into account, either.
Dave, thanks for the post. I facetiously take issue with your opening statement that the season is effectively over – from an M’s fan’s perspective over the last couple of weeks, I’d say that the season is pretty ineffectively over.
OK, my real question: last offseason, you often made comments disregarding some “market value” arguments. I believe this was often in the Sexson discussions where people would use FA market value as support for Sexson. May have also been in regards to some FA pitching, in which case I could see there being a huge rift in the way you’d evaluate contracts. Now (and in the Ichiro posts earlier on in the season) you make a pretty convincing case for Beltre based on market value. Can you give me your updated views on what “market value” in baseball means, and when it’s applicable? I can see that you may not want to call Zito’s contract “market value” just because one team was willing to make that offer, but how do you use that contract in evaluating the value of another player?
Great post. I totally agree. I wonder how many runs per game Beltre saves with awesome defensive plays at third, turning doubles into outs.
OK, my real question: last offseason, you often made comments disregarding some “market value†arguments.
Different tools for different projects. Market value has its uses, though it’s misused quite often by people looking to support a pre-existing belief. I think it’s important that a team understands where its players value lies relative to what the market would say they are worth at a given point in time in order to be able to take advantage of inefficincies, but I’d never suggest that a decision on whether a contract should be signed or not should be made based on market value.
I can see that you may not want to call Zito’s contract “market value†just because one team was willing to make that offer, but how do you use that contract in evaluating the value of another player?
I don’t. Here’s the basic rule of thumb regarding pitching – MLB teams don’t have any idea how to value it and almost every single free agent contract of more than three years for a pitcher is a bad idea.
I hope the M’s give Beltre a contract extension for a year or two.
I fear the M’s will give a multi-year contract to Jeff Weaver.
Which shall triumph: hope or fear?
What? You didn’t refer to him as criminally underrated? For shame, Dave!
Well, I suppose you don’t have to say it verbatim.
This works just as well
I just looked up Adrian’s numbers compared to Soriano’s per 162 games throughout their careers. Soriano’s are much better.
Soriano – .281 avg, 35 homers, 92 rbi, 41 doubles, 34 steals
Beltre – .272 avg, 25 homers, 89 rbi, 35 doubles, 10 steals
Soriano has missed several games this season because of injury or his homer total would be much higher. His rbi totals are mostly from the leadoff spot which makes his average incredible.
Beltre is a better fielder but I think if MLB GM’s had their choice almost all would take Soriano.
You are just taking one year. I could do that would Brady Anderson and compare him favorably to Griffey.
Which I think is particularly stupid.
Ballpark adjustments are EASY to do…and they’re EASY to understand. Even the casual fan knows that a .350/.450/.800 in Coors is not the same as a .350/.450/.800 in Safeco.
The case for Beltre gets even better when you throw in Scott Rolen for comparison. For some reason his contract never gets mentioned as well as his missed playing time and ineffectiveness while playing.
I remember when Beltre lit up the WBC with his bat. I thought to myself, that’s an offensive powerhouse that will carry this team.
I’m ready to believe that he still has the capacity to comeback with that kind of production.
Adrian Beltre
I’m on the bandwagon Dave
remember Jeff C.?
Dave – Small nit: It seems that the 2006 and 2007 stats are exactly the same for Lee & Soriano. Is this remarkable consistency or a copy and paste error?
I don’t know how you say Beltre is the second-best 3B in the AL this year without at least considering Mike Lowell:
.324 .379 .501 OPS+: 128
or Hank Blalock
.295 .346 .530 OPS+: 124
or Chone Figgins
.341 .400 .445 OPS+: 128
Defense.
At the time, I think I called Beltre’s deal fair free agent market value.
Fielding is GREATLY overlooked by many people. He’s probably a +2 win above average player overall going into 2008, making him a +4 wins above replacement (WAR). Bumping up the value here by 10% for baseball inflation, and he would sign today for 2/34 deal (add 15MM for every year beyond that).
If he’s only got 2/25 or so left on his deal, then that’s 9MM of savings the Mariners currently have (though, when you look at the deal over the whole 5, it’s probably breakeven).
Teams should be lining up to trade for him. (They don’t have the right to demand trade anymore right, for guys being in the middle of a multi-year contract?)
… I meant after being traded.
25: you make the point that you would dare compare Figgins to Beltre, and not even mention fielding.
25 and 26. Lowell is certainly in the discussion this year. His defense has been routinely excellent for a number of years now and he is having a great year with the bat. Blalock has played 45 games due to injuries and his recent stretch of play has been at DH. Figgins is also having a great year, but is not in the same ballpark defensively. Adjust for BABIP, which is out of whach for Figgins and Lowell this year, plus park factors, and Beltre is every bit as valuable with the bat (particularly on the road). Moreover, he is on the right side of 30 and under contract at reasonable rates for another 2 years. I would clearly prefer Beltre for the next 2-5 years over any of Lowell, Blalock, and Figgins.
OPS+ adjusts for park factors.
Lowell is a very fair guy to bring up. This has been a great year for him and he’s a good fielder by most accounts. Blalock, as you say, is primarily a DH and should not be considered.
Figgins has had a year like Vidro’s August. He’s not the second coming of Ichiro and I doubt you’ll see him hitting .340 again in his career. The fact that he has great speed and only .100 ISO should tell you something about the kind of hits he’s been getting.
Lowell’s home/road splits on OPS:
.993/.778
Quelle surprise! A RH hitter putting up great home numbers at Fenway! That has, like, never happened in the history of baseball!
Blalock’s played 45 games, so he’s pretty much disqualified, but he also has the same problem (.973 OPS home/.758 OPS road). You just have to discount a fair amount of performance at Arlington.
Figgins has also been injured a big chunk of the year… and guess what? He ALSO has silly home/road splits (and those are just wacky- Figgins is hitting .411/.471/.540 at home… it screams “fluke” to me).
some 2007 fielding stats
Beltre
FP .957 RF 2.86 ZR .769
Lowell
FB .957 RF 2.54 ZR .784
I’m not arguing that Beltre isn’t #2, I’m saying it’s not as clear-cut as Dave suggests.
If we’re talking about long-term value, I’d certainly pick Beltre over the others, but then I’d also probably take Alex Gordon over all of them.
Can you use BABIP to evaluate hitters? I thought that the premise was that pitchers had no effect on balls in play?
Fielding Percentage, Range Factor, and Zone Rating? I think someone needs to read the Evaluating Defense post.
Oh, and yeah: what Jeff said about defense.
Honestly? If Beltre and the Mariners were playing someplace with ballpark factors like Arlington, (Insert Corporate Name for New Comiskey Here) or Fenway instead of “Death to Righties” Safeco, the national media would probably be pumping Beltre as the chic alternative to A-Rod or Magglio as the 2007 MVP, instead of considering him overpaid.
People really DO NOT understand how badly this ballpark screws RHB. Even Guillen, who’s having a good year and is the supposedly the “guy who won’t get killed by Safeco”? .274/.348/.436 at home, .302/.360/.470 on the road- and his career home/road stats are pretty much neutral.
To be fair, Beltre has his own home/road splits: .762/.897. His may be reversed, but nevertheless. I will grant that Figgins and Lowell are having fluky years. I would not chock Lowell’s up to his home/road splits as much as his elevated BABIP this year compared to years past. Lowell has a fine track record with the bat in the poor hitting environment of Florida (excluding one off year and his traditional second half swoons), and most players tend to play better at home. Moreover, Lowell has a similar defensive reputation to Beltre. For this year, I would include Lowell in the discussion of top AL 3rd baseman, but, going forward, I’d rather have Beltre.
Figgins is the type of player given to big swings in average in the mold of Ichiro, ie. players who rely on putting the ball in play and running out a few hits. Moreover, his home line does scream fluke, even though his home park is well tailored to his hitting style with its large outfield gaps (disclaimer – I haven’t checked the park factors, but I know the park in Anaheim suppresses runs and home runs, but I’m not sure its impact on singles, walks, and doubles.) Figgins care rates suggest a 295 hitter with good patience, limited pop, and excellent base running. Certainly a useful player, but as a below average defense player at anything but a corner OF spot, not as valuable as Beltre.
Dave-
This being Beltre’s third season in a M’s uniform, it seems he has made decent progress at the plate (barring those random stretches where he swings at EVERYTHING). Do you see anything in his approach at the plate that indicates he may be progressing in his pitch recognition?
It seems he still is diving out over the plate for those sliders down and away, swinging from the heels for those fastballs over his head, and jumping away from balls that slide right back into the middle of the plate. Could he ever mature into a more patient hitter, or is his skill set at this point set and what we see is what we get for the next 10 or so years?
35-
Here’s the thing: there’s considerable evidence that, in similar environments (in other words, if you had BOTH players playing in similar environments), Beltre > Lowell.
Career stats, road games:
Lowell: .272/.330/.450
Beltre: .288/.339/.495
They’re both good players, but that’s 45 points of slugging.
Just because Lowell plays someplace (Fenway) that doesn’t obscure his ability doesn’t mean he’s better than Beltre- because, keep in mind, if they swapped places tomorrow, odds are good that Beltre would be BETTER in Fenway than Lowell has been… and Lowell would be worse at Safeco.
Correction – Reputation aside, UZR has had Lowell as consistently below average for the last 7 years, and particularly bad this year. Defensive metrics being what they are, it is still a stretch to put Lowell in Beltre’s defensive category in light of Beltre’s long history of positive numbers in all defensive measures.
Oh, and keep in mind that Beltre played the FIRST part of his career at Dodger Stadium while it was one of the top pitcher’s parks in the NL. So his career stats are REALLY hosed.
ec, you are absolutely right, which is why I have limited my praise for Lowell to this year. I have been cautioning my Red Sox fan father all year to expect regression from Lowell and not be upset if they don’t extend him.
I know this is a site that values statistical analysis, and rightfully so, but all I need to know Adrian is a great defensive player is the eye test. Watching him these past 3 years, he is phenomenal with the glove. I can’t speak about any of the others, because I don’t see them as much, but Adrian is amazing on defense, my eyes tell me so.
I’d probably consider broaching the idea of an extension this winter. I’d see if I could get an extra year or two tacked on to the end of the deal at current market rates – so, perhaps, offering him $15 million a year for both 2010 and 2011. It’s unlikely that Scott Boras would delay Beltre’s last big paycheck by a couple of years, but it’s a subject worth discussing, at least.
This is *exactly* what I was thinking. I wouldn’t want to lock up Beltre for an additional 5 years after 2009, but I would love to see Bavasi get proactive on this and try to tack on 2 more years to Beltre’s contract.
Dave, in that same post you said Considering the … organization’s right-handed hitter heaviness and Safeco’s dimensions, giving him a 4-6 year deal that covers his mid-30s might not be a great idea.
Isn’t the park moot here? You can’t find a LH hitting 3B. I guess you could find one who’s less pull-happy, but I doubt it would be much of a difference.
Also, not to compare him to Beltre, but thought I’d toss some love to Troy Glaus with his 116 OPS+ and member of the subperb Toronto infield defense.
I know this is a site that values statistical analysis, and rightfully so, but all I need to know Adrian is a great defensive player is the eye test.
I’m not sure there’s a better method yet for evaluating individual defense.
39 – Also, to be fair Lowell has played all but that last 2 years in Marlin stadium and in the worst division for hitters (Shea, Atlanta, old Philly stadium). If you already play in LA (depresses hitting, but not homeruns), San Diego and SF are poor hitters parks, but Colorado and Arizona are hitters havens.
I’m all for more Beltre love. “Criminally underrated” about sums it up.
I used to be a Marlin’s fan, so I would watch Lowell play. In 2005 he had a similar slump to Sexson’s, like a season long slump, plus playing in a miserable football field in south florida didn’t help. I wouldn’t put too much faith in him, Beltre is a better pick.
I agree Beltre is underrated, as well as his bat is slowed down by safeco field. Ive seen many times where’s he’s hit just inches from a homerun, and gets caught in or around the warning track. I think Beltre is a solid defender (besides those two throws that one time, but we’re all human) and deserves more recognition. Just when the Mariners as a team was getting more recognition, They go 2-12, so I guess they won’t be getting that recognition anymore. Its a shame, if the media and people outside the northwest recognized the team was good, then more people would probably recognize Beltre as a caliber playing deserving of a gold glove or atleast an all-star spot.
Dave, what’s Beltre’s UZR for this year? I know it’s amazing from 2003 to currently, but how much of that was from his time on the Dodgers.
Here’s an idea, just kind of a pie-in-the-sky type of idea, mind you.
How about batting Beltre lead off the next few games? I have a feeling that putting Ichiro in the two hole to set up and open up the heart of the order could do wonders for this team.
Then you could have a left-right rotation on this team with Vidro batting down in the order, and Broussard batting 6th.
Given the state of the team in 2005-06, the late-season swoon this year, and the punishment Safeco metes on right-handed hitters, is it a given that Beltre would sign an extension if offered?
47 – Beltre’s 2007 UZR (usual caveat’s apply, with multiple year samples preferred for all defensive measures:)
+14 per 150 as of the ASB
My gut feeling is that batting Ichiro anywhere other than leadoff diminishes the value of his infield hits by increasing the likelihood of a fielder’s choice. For what it’s worth, his career average with a man on first is only .314 in 728 plate appearances (his overall career batting average is .333), and his slugging drops even more (.405, from .443).
I’m a huge Beltre fan, for both performance and theater. Beltre also practices what veterans should do: helps other players. When Felix was having meltdowns, he would go out to the mound along with Kenji. He’s helped Betancourt and Lopez adjust to the majors and help them with their woes. I suspect he may ultimately be the answer to Lopez figuring out what he needs to do to succeed in Seattle.
50 – Thanks. Someone told me he was at 0 this year, so I guess that was just flat out wrong.
Well, he’s had two-and-a-half years to teach Lopez the ropes and the guy’s regressed significantly, so I’m not getting my hopes up on Beltre being the solution there. But if you want to ascribe leadership and chemistry value to him, that dugout tiff with Ryan Franklin a couple years ago has to be worth something.
My feeling is that eyeballs are a catergorical scale, the current defensive metrics are ordinal scales, and the current offensive metrics are interval scales.
More or less.
54 – I’d put leadership and chemistry in different baskets. Leadership is a skill, which from what I hear, is something Beltre is practicing. Chemistry is the catch-all for what can’t be explained. I’d put his and Yuni’s smiles in that category, which are quite pleasant, but the club could live without.
You may be right about Lopez, but I’m willing to give him a pass this summer. The reason I’m hoping Beltre can do something there is that, as a player himself, he may be able to kick Lopez in the ass, and tell him his time is running out. That’s often more effective than the same message coming from the coaching staff.
Do you see anything in his approach at the plate that indicates he may be progressing in his pitch recognition?
Not really – he still takes some ridiculously terrible swings at pitches that he has no prayer of hitting. He is what he is – a guy who can crush a pitch over the heart of the plate, gets himself out more often than he should, but has enough power and bat control to overcome a poor approach to hitting.
Isn’t the park moot here? You can’t find a LH hitting 3B. I guess you could find one who’s less pull-happy, but I doubt it would be much of a difference.
Well, if you give Beltre another long term deal, you’re then committing Triunfel to a position besides third base. I don’t think he can stick up the middle, so now you’re looking at a corner outfield spot, in all likelyhood. So there’s an opportunity cost to acquire a LH bat, even if he doesn’t play 3B, that signing Beltre through 2014 could bring.
I lump leadership with chemistry because neither of them is measurable and it’s entirely speculation on our part. If you want to talk about it as a skill, well leadership is an individual skill and chemistry is a group skill. But we still can’t trace their effects analytically to any real degree. Actually proving anything about these factors without relying on personal testimony is like trying to observe a quantum particle with the naked eye.
58 – I’d agree with you that you can’t measure it in terms of winning baseball games, but these guys are still human. I don’t believe in the “veteran grit” or the “he earned his spot in the line-up” or the “team wins because of chemistry” theories, but I think there can be a value in having teaching influences on the team. I also don’t think you can tell who’s most passionate about the game by who slams his helmet to the ground. The desire to win can be seen in a lot of different ways, and helping your teammates is one of them.
In any case, in case I didn’t make it clear, I think these are extras from Beltre, not what we’re paying him for.
Belte’s fielding seems quite good visually, and it’s cool that UZR confirms that. But what’s the deal with his RZR from The Hardball Times? It’s based on BIS data (did UZR use STATS, or am I thinking of PMR?), so it’s another PBP metric. It’s not at all akin to FRAA or RF.
So why is Beltre far below Lowell this year, and below league average? I know, I know: you need many years of data, blah blah blah. The point here isn’t so much to argue that Beltre sucks, it’s: how can these two metrics that are fundamentally doing the same thing come up with such different answers? THT just did a study examining the difference between the PBP data from STATS and BIS, and there *were* some large discrepancies, but these were mostly confined to the outfield.
So, why, according to RZR, would Beltre be a *worse* fielding 3B than Figgins, adjusted for chances? Maybe it’s positioning; Beltre has a ton of out-of-zone plays, but a poor rating in his own zone. Do the M’s shift for LH hitters more than other teams?
I understand the value in looking ahead to next season, and that the odds of this team making the playoffs this season are statistically diminished, but “it ain’t over.”
Sweeping the A’s and Devil Rays at home this week can happen, especially coming off an offensive break-out yesterday in Detroit. With two more games left to play than the Yankees, all the Mariners need to do is make up 4 games in 19, and they’re in a position to take the last two to tie and force a one-game playoff.
It’s easy to vent in the form of giving up on this year’s team and to analyze and strategize for next season, but you *never* know what could happen. All that stands in front of the wild-card are the Yankees and Tigers, and both are teams that have been playing very average baseball recently. This homestand will be a fun one!
Sorry, that was an insane number of acronyms in 60.
Triunfel? Well, let’s not give the 3B job to him just yet. Even if he becomes fit for everyday play at the mlb level for 2010, we could still trade Beltre then.
rememeber…in 2010,Beltre will be the “proven vet” and Truinfel the untried rookie…And if we’re unlucky, that’ll still mean something to the idiots in the front office….
Hopefully, we will get a new FO, or at least a new GM.
A new GM without a new FO would probably not be very useful.
I was wondering about the UZR/RZR discrepancies myself. For example, according to UZR, Ryan Braun was a +19 defensive third baseman at the break. RZR, however, has him last in all of baseball by a comfortable margin, with the fewest Out Of Zone plays as well for good measure. That confuses me.
Wait wait wait…..Ryan Freakin’ Braun was +19 in a DEFENSIVE measure? Uh, how do we explain that one? I mean, he’s pretty transparently terrible in the field. That’s….that’s odd.
Yeah, I saw his RZR was well under *.600* That’s crazy bad, but that confirms the scouts’ opinion of his D.
Well, a 1 year anomoly in any fielding measure doesn’t mean much, even if it is the current best measure, UZR. That’s why you want to use 3+ year’s in a regression.
I’m just happy we have a gold glove class fielder at third base after years of Jeff Cirillo and Scott Spiezeo. Cirillo holds the National League record for most consecutive error-free games in a season. Watching him play it was easy to see why — he never got to a ball more than a few inches to his left or right. Edgar, though never considered a great fielder, had a GUN for an arm, seeming to intentionally wait a few moments to let the runner advance up the line before firing him out.
The descripencies are probably between the use of Stats data for UZR and BIS for RZR, that and (AFAIK) UZR uses some different parameters than RZR.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/comparing-the-fielding-stats-from-stats-and-bis/
61 – I know with the kind of season the Mariners had this season, its not easy to accept that its over, but, its over. M’s aren’t going to sweep both the A’s and the Devil Rays. Maybe the Devil Rays but with a 4 game series the D-rays are bound to win one. And the A’s aren’t that easy either. Even if they did sweep the A’s and D-rays, they still have to plays the Angels in Anaheim for a 4 game series (which they will be swept or go 1-3, 2-2 if they are lucky). But yea, its over. Start focusing on next year.
I just want to say this post rocks. I’ve been saying all year I think he’s the best 3rd baseman in baseball (sorry A-Rod but we actually DO look at defense too.) WHOO HOO BELTRE!
This post isn’t claiming that Beltre is better than A-Rod, which would be, you know, insane.
A half season of UZR data (or RZR data) is really way too small to inform in any real reliable sense.
Braun wasn’t listed as +19 through the ASB but rather was +3 in 51 chances. If extrapolated to 150 games, he would’ve been +19 based upon the data reported but really this is where you have to recognize the limitations in sample size.
M’s aren’t going to sweep both the A’s and the Devil Rays. Maybe the Devil Rays but with a 4 game series the D-rays are bound to win one.
Especially with Scott Kazmir taking the hill in one of those games…
My only issue with AB is the lack of days off he received. I think he needed a few more breaks than he got this year. Hopefully he will get more in the future and stay fresh throughout the season.
He plays hard all the time and deserves a break once in a while.
I am glad for his sake that the Kingdome turf is in the rear view mirror. He would have been punished.
Not really – he still takes some ridiculously terrible swings at pitches that he has no prayer of hitting. He is what he is – a guy who can crush a pitch over the heart of the plate, gets himself out more often than he should, but has enough power and bat control to overcome a poor approach to hitting.
When you said this, it reminded me of Torii Hunter. Sure enough, if you take a look at their career lines adjusted to a neutral context (with bb-ref’s park factors), you get:
.264/.316/.458 — Hunter
.273/.328/.461 — Beltre
Not a flawless comparison, but they are similar. At this point, Beltre’s probably surpassed Hunter in defensive value, too.
The descripencies are probably between the use of Stats data for UZR and BIS for RZR, that and (AFAIK) UZR uses some different parameters than RZR.
That shouldn’t make the difference between awful and great, unless you think that one (or both) of the companies is systematically scoring balls hit near Braun incorrectly.
Braun wasn’t listed as +19 through the ASB but rather was +3 in 51 chances. If extrapolated to 150 games, he would’ve been +19 based upon the data reported but really this is where you have to recognize the limitations in sample size.
Also, I think that UZR is a little more prone to sample size fluctuation than RZR, even though it is probably a better judge of value in the long run.
Because UZR assigns different credit to different plays (saving a sharply hit smash down the line is worth more than an easy ground ball straight at you), a couple of fluke plays can have a larger effect on UZR than RZR, even though it is ultimately correct–in some sense anyway–to give the fielder varying credit for different plays.
People always jump to conclusions too quick. Beltre gets off to a slow start and has a mediocre first year, two years later he’s still trying to defend himself. Beltre’s a high level player who deserves a lot more respect than he gets.
Oh and my one question, does anybody think that batting Beltre who has very good power, but only average onbase skills second makes any sense? Yeah he’s pretty fast, but is there another reason to put him up there?
Not to mention that Beltre’s look at Yuni/Jose in that double play twins commercial is worth like $5M by itself.
Thanks for the pat-on-the-back for Beltre, Dave. The numbers you lay out for him are convincing — but something the numbers can never quite convey is how asthetically pleasing his performances are. On his good days, he plays 3rd base like Nureyev danced. It’s a treat to watch such a talented player.
Dave,
I agree with the gist of your post, but when comparing the offense of these guys, you need to look at more just the 2007 numbers. I did a really rough OPS+ projection, giving weights of 10, 5, 3 to the previous three years. This is how the five shake out:
Ramirez: 130
Lee: 120
Soriano: 119
Beltre: 113
Wells: 101
So, Beltre is not really “indistinguishable” from the top three, but rather a fair amount below them.
Of course, Beltre probably makes up some of that (or maybe all of it, or maybe none: who really knows?) on defense.
I do agree that Beltre is underrated in any case.
gwangung -Triunfel had 0HRs in 96 ABs. I don’t see him replacing Beltre at all. 3B is normally a power hitter’s position.
Triunfel has 3b written all over him IMHO….
Triunfel’s also 17. At that age, I don’t think you can project his power potential based on his performance.
Alex Rios, who had 15 HR pre-ASB last year and was this year’s HR derby runner up (yes, I know, it doesn’t mean much but it indicates that he’s considered a power hitter now), had 1 HR in 426 ABs in 2004, as a 23-year-old.
Generally, you develop more power going from 17 to 20. And you’ll develop a lot MORE power going from 21 to 27.
I suggest you’re not taking his age into account.
Well, you would have to think that’s the exception rather than the rule. Actually, I was mistaken, Triunfel has OHRs in 371ABs, which one could argue is worse than 1HR in 426ABs. 206 of Truifel’s AB was in High Desert no less.
Another difference is that Truifel is listed as 5’11″, 175 lbs and Rios is 6’5″, 194lbs.
Well, no…that’s what YOU’RE thinking.
But you’ve yet to present any evidence. You keep ignoring that Truinfel is facing pitchers substantially older and more experienced than he is.
Ah, yes and your phantom evidence is…??
I see Tim gave me one sample – I’ll match that. Beltre at age 17, 26HRs 472ABs
And what kind of competition was that against?
You keep ignoring context. Stop that.
Actually minor league numbers are good and all but it doesn’t mean anything until a player proves it on the major league level-especially in the clutch.
Against the same type of competition or better that Triunfel spent half his year at.
17 is entirely too early to judge Triunfel’s power potential. In Hi-A ball he put together a .689 OPS. Not bad considering most of his competition are 20-21 year olds and college players. He’s at least 2 years away from really passing ANY kind of judgement on. Beltre is set at 3B for the next two years. They’ve got bigger problems at other positions. And yes, 3B is normally a power spot, but if you make it up elsewhere, who cares? My concern is the M’s are starting to look like a team that’ll hardly hit any homers in 2 or 3 years.
Anyone else for counter evidence, other than a “not bad” OPS?
For someone who harps on the paucity of evidence, you’re offering very little evidence yourself. Basically, you’ve cited a sample size of 2 right now.
Granted that Beltre put up monster numbers at a minor leaguer. What’s the general career arc of a minor leaguer who debuts so young?
You’re the one who claims that this year shows Truinfel isn’t much of a power hitter. You need to support it, and you haven’t done so. Citing one other example is far from convincing–it looks like you do only enough work to support the immediate point.
Be more comprehensive and you’ll be more convincing.
Are you seriously suggesting that your evaluation of Triunfel is the definitive one? There is a little more to player development and evaluation than looking up 400+ AB by a 17 year old on BBR.com……..
gwangung – so no other counter evidence than he’s young.