Award Winners
Not much interesting to say about last night’s game. M’s lose, Washburn struggles, McLaren says dumb things in post-game interview. Pretty standard day all around.
So, let’s talk non-Mariner things for a second. Everyone always has an opinion on the postseason awards with new names just filling the template for people to rehash the same arguments every year. I’ve long since gotten bored with those arguments and don’t particularly care what the BBWAA as a whole thinks about too many things, so I don’t get wrapped up in those discussions any more. I find it hard to get too riled up about whatever mediocre player Jayson Stark decides to push as his MVP candidate of the year.
But, that doesn’t mean I don’t have an opinion on who should win the awards, so, without further ado, here are my totally theoretical ballots, going three deep for each award.
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro Suzuki, Jorge Posada
A-Rod ended this race a few weeks ago, and no one else should get a first place vote. Honestly, a vote for anyone else this year is just a sign of personal bias. A couple of up the middle players who both provide significant offensive value round out the top three.
NL MVP: David Wright, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez
Wright makes it a clean sweep for New York third baseman in a year with a lot of solid candidates but no obvious answer. You could make a compelling case for Pujols or Ramirez (though his defense is attrocious), and the difference between the guy who finishes 1st and 10th on the ballot isn’t even that large. It’s a balanced field, but Wright gets the edge by a couple of hairs.
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett
Johan’s still the best pitcher alive, while Sabathia has quietly put together a tremendous season as well. Beckett may get the actual award thanks to his win totals, but he’s thrown 20 less innings than Johan and 40 less innings than Sabathia – that’s too large a quantity to overcome when he hasn’t been demonstrably better on a per inning basis.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, John Smoltz
The gap here is a lot smaller than you may think as either Peavy or Webb is a deserving choice. But am I the only one who wonders why John Smoltz’s season has gone totally under the radar? The guy is 40 years old and hasn’t declined at all – he’s literally just as good now as he was in his prime. Amazing.
AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima
Clearly, Boston’s reliance on three rookies to play major roles was evidence that the Red Sox don’t understand the value of major league experience. Those nerds and their calculators – when will they ever learn.
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence
Braun is putting the wraps on one of the great rookie seasons of all time. Just a monster of a debut. Tulowitzki’s glove has proven to be more than good enough for shortstop and his bat provides solid value at an up the middle position. That he got nearly 200 more plate appearances than Pence pushed him to the number two spot on the list.
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, Terry Francona
You can talk about payroll all you want, but Joe Torre’s team is going to play October baseball after having to give 23 starts to Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, Chase Wright, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner. That’s basically a rotation spot that they handed to Double-A pitchers due to the ridiculous amounts of injuries they faced, and they’re still going to win the wild card. Joe Torre doesn’t get nearly enough credit for how well he’s handled NY.
NL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta, Willie Randolph, Bob Melvin
The Nationals were supposed to be terrible. Instead, Acta has managed to take a team that epitomizes replacement level and turn them into a respectable club, winning games with minor league free agents and Triple-A veterans. Acta’s not perfect (see the Nook Logan fetish), but if I could choose anyone to manage a franchise next year, he’d probably be my pick.
Dave — any thought to throwing Eric Bedard into the Cy Young mix? He is on the shelf now, but he was flat out dominant there for awhile.
In theory, if Hargrove were still leading this club, and the M’s didn’t collapse, would you pick him to win AL Manager of the year?
Besard’s done for the year at 182 innings. In a year with Johan, Sabathia, and Beckett performing as they have, that’s not enough.
In theory, if Hargrove were still leading this club, and the M’s didn’t collapse, would you pick him to win AL Manager of the year?
Nope.
I agree on Bedard — but when he was pitching, he was better than Beckett/Sabathia.
What kind of a career do you see Ryan Braun having? Obviously, this year has been tremendous. Is he a HOF-level talent?
Dave, what about the fact that the Indians have owned Johan this year? Hasn’t CC beaten him 3 times this season? I agree that Johan is better, but I don’t think he’s having the better year.
Ryan Braun has shown a lot of power this year, but is his relatively low walk rate a concern? I haven’t paid any attention to him, so do you think it likely that pitchers will adjust and not throw him anything in the strike zone?
Any chance Tulo wins the Gold glove?
Being from Colorado I get to see him quite a bit and his defense is something else. He was clocked in the 90′s throwing it over to first base!! I would love to have that kid as my SS for years to come.
What kind of a career do you see Ryan Braun having? Obviously, this year has been tremendous. Is he a HOF-level talent?
Braun’s not quite this good – it’s nearly impossible to hit .330 with a 20% strikeout rate – but he’s an excellent power hitter. I think he could have a career line of .300/.360/.550 when he hangs them up, and if he plays long enough, yea, the HOF isn’t out of reach.
Dave, what about the fact that the Indians have owned Johan this year? Hasn’t CC beaten him 3 times this season? I agree that Johan is better, but I don’t think he’s having the better year.
The Twins scored 8 runs in the five games Johan started against Cleveland this year. Just another reason why W-L record is totally useless. The difference between Johan and C.C. this year isn’t huge, so if you want to give it to Sabathia, I won’t protest too loudly, but don’t do it because of wins and losses.
Ryan Braun has shown a lot of power this year, but is his relatively low walk rate a concern?
There’s no reason to walk when you’re hitting .330 and slugging .650. No, I’m not concerned about his pitch recognition – he’ll never be Barry Bonds, but he’s not Alfonso Soriano, either.
Any chance Tulo wins the Gold glove?
Gold Glove voters don’t even bother to consider other options as long as Omar Vizquel is still alive. So no, he probably won’t get it – but I’d agree that he’s a worthy candidate.
Ichiro is having a nice year but nowhere near Ordonez. Ichiro has only 31 extra base hits and doesn’t walk much. The guy struggles to hit the ball out of the infield. Our lack of discipline in the lineup stars at the top. Vlad is having a much better year as well. Let’s be honest. Ichiro can’t carry a team.
Re: #10
Where is Ordonez carrying his team? 2nd place in both division and WC…Who cares? I’d put Vlad in the discussion, even though i loathe that man, because the Angels are in first, but not Mags…individual numbers mean nothing if the team doesn’t win…
Ichiro is having a nice year but nowhere near Ordonez.
Defense. Position.
There is only one set of footprints behind the Mariners this year, because Ichiro has carried them all season.
No argument that ARod shouldn’t get every first place vote, but shouldn’t Magglio get something of a nod? I know Dave has never been high on him, but it seems the season he’s put together this year deserves something of a nod.
His numbers this year scream FLUKE: .425 BA/BASIP, .350 GPA, .368BA/BIP all help inflate the holy numbers of Batting Average and RBI’s.
Also top three in the AL Runs Created in 2007: Arod 148, Magglio 140, and Ichiro 119. Just curious why Jorge over Magglio.
Joe Torre has the help of an expensive offense that can bludgeon opponents. That tends to overshadow mediocre to bad pitching. Even you’ve gone on about their run differential.
If anything, give credit to the Yankees FO for being willing to powercycle through minor league guys that weren’t helping the pitching staff until they found guys who could.
No argument that ARod shouldn’t get every first place vote, but shouldn’t Magglio get something of a nod?
No – he’s not even the MVP of his own team. That would be Curtis Granderson.
Just curious why Jorge over Magglio.
Defense. Magglio plays right field, and not very well. Posada’s a catcher.
12.What about Torii Hunter…IMO he’s the closest to Ichiro in terms offens & defense, maybe even better. Shouldn’t he be mentioned as well if Ichiro is?
Dave,
I don’t want to hijack this thread, so [then don't hijack the thread]
Wow. I agree with Geoff Baker in that Kelvim Escobar is (to borrow Dave’s term) criminally underrated. Not even in the top three, Dave? His numbers are remarkably close to Santana’s. Even if he doesn’t quite bump Santana, he’s still deserving of a ton of votes…
Just trying to get a better understanding…
Recognizing that Magglio is terrible at fielding any position other than DH, and Jorge still manages to play OK defense behind the plate. Mags so far has 140 Runs Created while Jorge has 91. Is Mags defense THAT bad or am I putting too much value in the Runs Created stat?
Here are the top 18 hitters in MLB by VORP (there’s a pretty big drop after 18th):
Alex Rodriguez 94.2
Hanley Ramirez 84.1
Magglio Ordonez 77.5
David Ortiz 70.6
David Wright 68.7
Jorge Posada 68.5
Chipper Jones 63.2
Albert Pujols 62.3
Miguel Cabrera 61.8
Chase Utley 61.1
Curtis Granderson 60.9
Matt Holliday 60.4
Prince Fielder 59.8
Vladimir Guerrero 59.6
Ichiro Suzuki 58.5
Jimmy Rollins 56.9
Carlos Pena 56.2
Barry Bonds 55
Even recognizing that Hanley Ramirez’s defense at SS is bad, I think I’d give him the nod over Wright. Is he really 18 runs over the season worse than Wright, based on their defense?
Also, I think Ordonez has to be in the discussion. VORP doesn’t take quality of defense into account, but it does take defensive position into account.
Finally, is Ichiro a better center fielder than Granderson? I wouldn’t think so – Grandy’s pretty good. That means Granderson and Ichiro are about equal.
In all, though, I think Dave has the right people, and the rest is just quibbling.
I can see the point of giving all three AL rookie spots to the Red Sox, but Brian Bannister should get some attention, shouldn’t he?
I too don’t want to hijack the thread, but [then you, too shouldn't hijack the thread]
12.What about Torii Hunter…IMO he’s the closest to Ichiro in terms offens & defense, maybe even better. Shouldn’t he be mentioned as well if Ichiro is?
He’s not even close. Hunter’s offense lags behind both Ichiro and Granderson, and his defense isn’t nearly what it used to be. He’s fighting Grady Sizemore for the title of third best center fielder in the AL this year.
Will we have a post to dissect this historic collapse?
I’m not sure what you want us to write. The offense, defense, rotation, bullpen, and management have all been terrible for three weeks. Therefore, they’re losing a lot of games. I’m sure we’ll do a post-mortem on the team when the season ends, but I don’t think there’s any real insights into the collapse – a mediocre team played horribly, and were managed horribly, for several weeks in a row.
I agree with Geoff Baker in that Kelvim Escobar is (to borrow Dave’s term) criminally underrated.
I’ve always been a big Escobar fan, but there’s nothing really there to put him ahead of any of the guys listed. Like Bedard, he’s well behind Santana and Sabathia in innings pitched – his numbers are pretty much even with Beckett, but factor in Fenway vs Edison, and advantage goes to Beckett.
Recognizing that Magglio is terrible at fielding any position other than DH, and Jorge still manages to play OK defense behind the plate.
The average AL catcher produced 42 runs created this year. The average AL right fielder produced 75 runs created this year. The positional difference between right field and catcher is huge.
Even recognizing that Hanley Ramirez’s defense at SS is bad, I think I’d give him the nod over Wright. Is he really 18 runs over the season worse than Wright, based on their defense?
Way more than that, actually – it’s probably closer to 30 runs. Ramirez is one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball. He should really be playing center field.
Brian Bannister should get some attention, shouldn’t he?
Meh – 5.05 xFIP. Give the Royals defense credit for turning 74% of his balls in play into outs.
Maybe this comes as news only to me, but [ot]
I’m curious, why Ichiro over Granderson?
OBP: .379 vs .359 Ichiro
SLG: .557 vs .433 Granderson
SB: 37 vs 22 Ichiro though both are above 90% (Granderson only has 1 CS!)
Obviously they play the same position, both play in pitchers’ parks, and both play in virtually every game. I thought Granderson was a pretty good defensive player too. It seems to me that Granderson’s edge in slugging is worth at least as much as the 20 points in OBP and 15 steals in Ichiro’s favor? So Ichiro’s defense is that much better than Granderson’s or…?
I’m curious, why Ichiro over Granderson?
It’s splitting hairs, as they’re both excellent (Granderson was third on my first draft, but I swapped Posada out for him at the last minute), but Ichiro has two advantages:
1. Platoon splits. Granderson can’t hit lefties at all. He’s terrible against them. A good manager can turn him into a pumpkin by bringing in any generic LH reliever. This might not seem like a big deal, but it creates problems in high leverage situations. His seven highest LI plate appearances of the season have resulted in him facing five left-handed pitchers, plus K-Rod and Bobby Jenks – he’s 0 for 7 with three strikeouts in those situations.
2. Playing time. Because the Tigers have semi-platooned Granderson this year, he’s 30 plate appearances behind Ichiro on the season. That might not sound like much, but when you have two guys this close, it’s a tiebreaker.
The platoon spits comment on Granderson is a very good point. One thing about Ichiro is that it really doesn’t matter who’s pitching – how hard or which hand – he seems to have about a 35% chance of getting a hit. That dependability is has real value.
HRam has given up 30 Runs on defense this year? That shocks me, but I’ll believe it for now. In that case, Wright is the clear NL MVP, as his defense at third base is actually very good.
One other guy that deserves mention: BJ Upton. I’m not sure how good is CF defense is, but, assuming it’s average, on a per-AB basis, he’s arguably MVP right up there with Ichiro and Granderson. He just didn’t get quite as many ABs as some of the other guys, and he also played a terrible 2B for part of the season.
HRam has given up 30 Runs on defense this year?
Compared to Wright, who is an above average defensive player, yes. Hanley’s probably a -20 to -25 defender at SS, and Wright’s in the +5 to +10 range as a third baseman.
One other guy that deserves mention: BJ Upton.
Sorry, but no – his defense at second was disastrously bad.
The Smoltz reference reminded me how incredible that starting three for the Braves was. He, Maddux, and Glavine are all still pitching. I’m still amazed they only won one WS.
My personal thoughts are that A-Rod obviously wins the AL MVP, but you will probably see Maggs finish 2nd even though i would be putting Granderson into that spot. Voters are dumb though since they picked the 3rd best player on the Twins last year.
I think Prince Fielder will finish in the top 3 voting as well in the NL MVP with a possible win depending on if they make it. It’s conceivable that the bullpen could blow a save, and his opportunity to win the MVP. Again, should he win…no…but voters will love him.
I really can’t get excited about any of these awards anymore, now that I realize how little they often have to do with how good a player actually is.
Still, yep, A-Rod is having a monster season and as much as I love Ichiro! I can totally agree that he should get every first place vote.
Beckett will also be helped by pitching for a post-season team …
as usual, the GG will be continue to be a conundrum:
does Vizquel get the “it’s Omar’s” award at SS at age 40?
does Chavez get it at 3rd (even though he’s played half a season) due to the traditional check-your-brains voting, or does Alex win it due to his offensive numbers, thus starting a new tradition of blanking Beltre?
who is the AL 1st baseman, with Tex traded to the NL?
any chance anyone can rip the GG from Jeter’s hands?
Nice write up Dave, but what’s with the non-standard grammar on this most grammatical of sites?
“Less innings” instead of fewer and “amount of injuries” rather than number?
Okay, I guess I’m never done being a prick about some things.
Back to baseball: Is there no chance John McDonald and Adam Everett win the AL and NL Gold Gloves at shortstop? Nah, that’d be like giving an award for defense to the best defensive players at their position, when everyone really knows it’s for being the most established name that the hacks can think of.
#34
Jeter’s obviously the best fielding SS in the world. He proves it every time he scoops the ball backhand, twirls in the air and throws out the fatass chugging toward first.
Voters are dumb though since they picked the 3rd best player on the Twins last year.
I do find it somewhat interesting that basically the same voting philosophies that got Morneau his MVP last year cost Santana the Cy in 2005, and potentially in 2007, though his case this year isn’t as strong.
No – [Ordonez is] not even the MVP of his own team. That would be Curtis Granderson.
You could make a good case for Polanco being more valuable than Ordonez as well, assuming he’s a ++ defensive 2B and not just one who doesn’t make errors. And Guillen isn’t far behind though I imagine he’s as bad at SS and Ordonez is in the OF.
As some have said, the voters are going to get caught up in three categories of AVG/HR/RBI instead of AVG/OBP/SLG and likely put Ordonez up there despite not being his team’s MVP. Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened (Jeff Kent, Ken Griffey Jr, Morneau).
heh heh. heh heh.
“Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners are determined by those who best know how to evaluate performance. Managers and coaches of each major league team select a squad of superior defensive players in their own league, excluding players from their own team.”
#36..then maybe you need to look at Johny Mac’s stats. I don’t expect you watch any Jays games, but there is a reason they signed him to an extension. Unfortunately John does not qualify (only 95 games for 703 innings) but his .985 is the highest among non-qualifiers.
This is the type of player that will never win a GG b/c he bats .250 and has 1 HR this year.
I’m pretty sure that #36 was being sarcastic.
I don’t think anyone who doesn’t work for a New York City paper or ESPN can argue with a straight face that Derek “Just Past A Diving” Jeter actually deserves the Gold Gloves that he wins.
Just out of curiosity, Dave, how would you amend that list to predict the ACTUAL winners? It seems to me that ESPN has already told us that Prince Fielder is the NL MVP – which I appreciate, I really do, because it’s nice not to have to actually think about baseball as long as Phillips, Kruk, and (insert third talking head here) are around.
I am sure he was too…but i needed a reason to give props to Johny Mac. haha
The Twins scored 8 runs in the five games Johan started against Cleveland this year. Just another reason why W-L record is totally useless. The difference between Johan and C.C. this year isn’t huge, so if you want to give it to Sabathia, I won’t protest too loudly, but don’t do it because of wins and losses.
I had the C.C. Sabathia vs. Johan Santana for Cy debate a few days ago and this point was made. I’ll be playing a bit of a devil’s advocate here so bear with me. . . .
Santana vs. CLE: 6G 39IP 8HRA 9BB 43K 4.38 ERA
Sabathia vs. MIN: 5G 35.2IP 0HRA 6BB 27K 1.51 ERA
It isn’t much, but as the debate goes, in a yearly award part of the equation should include success against playoff contending opponents–particularly a divisional opponent that includes your main competitor–and whether his teammates displayed success in those games or not those 8HRA cost Santana.
In a race this close:
Santana: 201IP 143ERA+ 3.56 xFIP
Sabathia: 220IP 141ERA+ 3.69 xFIP
That little may be a factor to consider. Of course, what’ll be more important will be their performance of the next couple of weeks.
Just curious why Jorge over Magglio.
It’s a 162 OPS+ at C vs. 167 OPS+ in RF. Personally, I’d take the catcher; I might be tempted to take him over Ichiro, but I don’t know how well Posada has done defensively.
Gah, I can’t find sorted OPS+ stats on THT, B-R or Fangraphs! Please help me!
A-Rod is arguably having the greatest season of anyone to have played 3rd base all year. Just checking in on the Hall of Famers who played a full season at 3rd, it looks like Mr. Boras is going to have some nice numbers for the portolio this winter even if he slumps a little. Eras vary, of course, but still we get a sense of what he’s doing playing in a park that is friendlier to lefty power hitters than to righties.
Rodriguez 2007: .319/.425/.671. 52 HR/140 BI
Matthews 1953: .302/406/627. 47/135
Robinson 1964: .317/.368/521 28/118
Harmon Killebrew moved around a lot in the field but was very consistent at the plate. Perhaps his best year was 1961 (1.011 OPS) but he only played 45 games at third that year. His best year playing third most of the time (138 games) was probably
Killebrew 1970: .271/.411/.546 41/113.
Mike Schmidt was on a tear in the strike year of 1981, to the tune of .316/.435/.644. But he played in only 102 games that year.
Schmidt 1980: .286/.380/.624. 48/121.
1980 was the year of the third basemen. As great as George Brett’s year was, he played in only 117 games but produced gaudy numbers that are the best if you don’t care whether he played 140 games or more (.390/.454/.664). Over a full schedule, his best year would be:
Brett 1985: .335/.436/.585 30/112
Perez 1970: .317/.401/.589 40/129
Molitor 1982: .302/.366/.450 19/71 (yes, he played 150 games at third.)
Boggs 1987: .363/.461/.588 24/89 (must have had some good chicken that year.)
So A-Rod’s current BA is higher than everyone but Brett and Boggs. His OBP beats everyone but those two, and his slugging is way out there. With 52 HRs, I bet the ISO slugging is pretty good. He’s won the HR and RBI titles among these guys with 18 games to go.
I’m sure there are non-HOFamers who put up great years at 3rd, but this is a decent sample. There are more sophisticated metrics available too, but if you want to argue that Rodriguez is having the best year by a third baseman, here is a starting point. Now if Boras would cut me in on the deal . . .
Santana vs. CLE: 6G 39IP 8HRA 9BB 43K 4.38 ERA
Sabathia vs. MIN: 5G 35.2IP 0HRA 6BB 27K 1.51 ERA
The Twins offense sucks. The Indians offense does not.
Not that badly.
It is still below average Santana even against CLE and above average Sabathia. My issue is SSS syndrome, but I won’t completely ignore the argument that Santana didn’t perform quite as well as expected against an important divisional opponent, while Sabathia did.
They weren’t playing the same “important divisional rival”.
How about you and I both go try to win a boxing match – you get Oscar de la Hoya and I get Clay Aiken. I bet I do better than you, even if you’ve got 100 pounds and years of boxing experience on me.
There are just way too many problems with the data sample you’re trying to use to make any real point about the quality of pitching that Santana and Sabathia displayed in those games.
There are just way too many problems with the data sample you’re trying to use
Yes, SSS syndrome = Small Sample Size syndrome
Ichiro’s OPS numbers the last five seasons with AL Rank
2007 – .828 31st
2006 – .786 45th
2005 – .786 38th
2004 – .869 22nd
2003 – .788 45th
Being an Angel fan half the Yankees lineup scares me more. Not to mention the Red Sox. The most overrated offense player in the AL folks.
I have to give him his due on defense. Excellent.
ESPN level of analysis, dude.
Because what could be wrong using overall OPS rank?
Does there need to be a sidebar link on the topic “why OPS is not the best measure of Ichiro’s value?” It has certainly been covered several times before.
Last I looked – a day or two ago — Ichiro was sixth in the AL in Value Over Replacement Player, which only measures hitting and is a far more accurate measure than OPS.
VORP, for instance:
2007, “31st in OPS”… 7th if you use VORP
2006, “45th in OPS”… 20th if you use VORP
aaaaaaaand so on.
Have you noticed that everybody who knows a little bit about baseball will tell you that Ichiro is overrated? Fans with no sophisticated knowledge of baseball think Ichiro’s great. Most of the people who know the most about baseball think he’s great, too. Everybody in between thinks Ichiro’s overrated.
But Ichiro isn’t a team leader! He doesn’t give good interview sound bites! He’s a selfish player that only cares about his own numbers!
*strangling noises*
[deleted, troll]
us? you?
What’s Ichiro going to do. Infield hit us to death?
Isn’t that the entire strategy of the Angels? If you’re not a fan of infield singles by speedy dudes, you should probably find another team to root for.
I don’t think anyone who doesn’t work for a New York City paper or ESPN can argue with a straight face that Derek “Just Past A Diving†Jeter actually deserves the Gold Gloves that he wins.
Well, when it comes to “east coast big name media” Heyman at SI opined:
There’s your classic mindset, too: “I saw one game, he was awesome, therefore I’ve made up my mind.”
FWIW, the LA times reports “Seattle’s Yuniesky Betancourt also is being pushed for the award.” Though I don’t know who is doing the pushing (do teams do backchannel lobbying for these things?)
msb, I almost made that exact comment.
What’s Ichiro going to do. Infield hit us to death?
Some LAA of A offensive stats of note:
Batting average rank: 2nd in AL
HR rank: 12th in AL
SB rank: 1st in AL
BB rank: 11th
Mr. Pot, I’d like to introduce you to Mr. Kettle. You might have something in common to discuss.
Clearly, Boston’s reliance on three rookies to play major roles was evidence that the Red Sox don’t understand the value of major league experience. Those nerds and their calculators – when will they ever learn.
I love this. Of course they would’ve been crucified in the Boston media if it hadn’t worked out, but what does it say about the comparative cowardice of the M’s management when they operate in a so much more, uh, compliant media milieu?
Don’t feed the trolls, please.
No Bob Melvin comments?
I’m still fixated on Dave’s statement that A-Rod should get every vote for MVP. Looking at Eqa (all-time adjustment) for the HOF third basemen above, we find:
Mathews 1954: .348
Robinson 1964: .309
Killebrew 1970: .323
Perez 1970: .326
Schmidt 1980: .326 (1981 short season: .360)
Molitor 1982: .307
Brett 1985: .330 (1980 short season: .370)
Boggs 1987: .357
Rodriguez 2007: .361 so far
Do you think the M’s have played JJ out of the Rolaids Relieve Pitcher Award?
And remember, Pedroia started the season in a terrible slump. Yet the BoSox didn’t replace him with a “veteran” because they believed that his skillset would eventually shine through. They were right. Too bad the M’s don’t take this approach with AJ.
sp. correction Relief Pitecher
How irritating. I messed up Schmidt and Brett. These are correct:
Mathews 1954: .348
Robinson 1964: .309
Killebrew 1970: .323
Perez 1970: .326
Schmidt 1980: .330 (1981 short season: .360)
Molitor 1982: .307
Brett 1985: .357 (1980 short season: .370)
Boggs 1987: .357
Rodriguez 2007: .361 so far
By the way, I loved the mental image of Dave boxing with Clay Aiken.
#67 — Well, if Eddie Matthews played today and repeated his 1954 seaon, then he might sneak past Rodriguez for the MVP. Since he nor any of the other players you listed are currently playing, we have to judge Rodrgiuez against current players, and I agree with Dave. I cannot honestly find a player would should appear above ARod on the AL MVP ballot.
#67 — I may have mis-read the intent of your post. If so, I apologize.
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez
I just love Curtis, strikeout total be damned. I’d put Ichrio 4th and Posada 5th.
NL MVP: David Wright, Albert Pujols, Jimmy Rollins
Had Utley not been injured he could easily be my favorite, but he missed too many games for consideration.
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Kelvim Escobar
Yeah, Johan’s still the best pitcher in baseball. But Dan Haren’s been awesome, and Escobar’s had a stellar season. Sabathia is 4th here, and Beckett is 5th.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, John Smoltz
No doubt about Peavy. I agree with Dave 1-2-3 here.
AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, Mike Scioscia, Eric Wedge
NL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta, Willie Randolph, Bob Melvin
Would Ichiro’s value drop if he hit with men on base more often? How many hits would he lose when the fielder could go to second for the force out instead of having to go to first and have the throw not be in time to beat Ichiro?
If he hit lower in the order would he lose value? I mean, he gets about 30-40 infield hits a year, right?
Another complaint I have about Ichiro is that his hits don’t move runners as much as other players.
Example: Arod is much more likely to drive in a runner from 2nd with a hit than Ichiro, who is just as likely to only advance him to third base.
Really? Have you worked out the numbers on that?
I don’t think you have.
74. It’s cool. He’s clearly the best among his peers this year, but I wondered whether he was approaching a historic season for his position. I checked EqA to compare the seasons with adjustments (league, park, etc. etc.) just to see how he stacks up. The money is about to stack up. Again.
I haven’t followed AZ this year much. Is Melvin’s success because he has the right style for that team? Because he’s got great instincts in general? Because of the caliber of players, even though they’re young? Just wondering.
79 – Because Arizona is one of the youngest teams in MLB – their nickname is the “Baby Backs”.
He doesn’t give good interview sound bites!
I know this was said in jest, but I still want to add that even going off the “media-friendliness” issue for the beat writers voting on awards, I don’t understand the complaint. Ichiro gives some of the most interesting quotes of any player in the game by far. It’s great material for reporters to use, and side issues like using an interpreter or being insufficiently chummy with the media have little bearing on it.
FWIW, the LA times reports “Seattle’s Yuniesky Betancourt also is being pushed for the award.†Though I don’t know who is doing the pushing (do teams do backchannel lobbying for these things?)
The likely answer to your question is simply your previous link. The media create stories by feeding off each other’s previous coverage. So the LA Times read Heyman’s piece and described it as a campaign.
I gotta agree. This past season, I saw five of the most unique quotes I’ve EVER heard from an athlete coming from Ichiro.
Hmm. Maybe some of the media writers just aren’t SMART enough to handle that…
76 – would Barry Bonds’ value drop if he batted leadoff? Would Johan Santana’s value drop if he pitched in middle relief?
These are silly questions.
Ichiro hits about the same with men on base as he does with the bases empty, and hits extraordinarily well with men in scoring position:
career AVG OBP SLG OPS
overall 333 379 437 816
men on base 333 409 425 834
scoring position 349 453 442 895
Those numbers with runners in scoring position are over 1069 plate appearances. I’m not worried about him moving runners along.
To clarify, I love Ichiro’s quotes too.
What I meant by my post is that he purposely doesn’t say things like “I gave it 110% on that play” or “I was just glad to help the team win”, that are the typical pablum fed to sports media.
You’d think they’d appreciate the variety, but instead we get about 300 articles a season that try to cast Ichiro as Charlie Chan.
Ichiro second? I’d only put him second if we had a team MVP vote.
#65 said, “I love this. Of course they would’ve been crucified in the Boston media if it hadn’t worked out, but what does it say about the comparative cowardice of the M’s management when they operate in a so much more, uh, compliant media milieu?”
The thing is, there are two completely different subsets of the Boston media. The “look at me!” columnists are critical whenever possible but the beat writers are total lap dogs. You can watch Francona’s post game press interviews on NESN, the Red Sox’s cable station. And they almost never ask anything approaching a hard question. As an example, there was a game a month back when Francona never made a certain substitution for which the game situation cried out. He was waiting to tell the press afterward that he couldn’t because the guy everyone would’ve assumed he’d bring into the game had gotten hurt. But the beat writers never even asked a simple, innocently worded question along the lines of “Why didn’t you use X?”. Francona got the word out the next day.
Francona’s apparently a very nice guy and they like him. But it’s gotten to the point that, far from being hyper-critical, they won’t ask obvious questions that have the slightest negative implication to them.
Very weird.
That’s the kind of rigorous analysis and carefully supported argument I read the comments for.
With sports writers, it is even more about accessibility, than what is said. Ichiro does not always make himself available to the media. Sports writers will cut more slack to the player who makes his job easier.
Why is Raul Ibanez “The Face of the Franchise� Last night, a zombie-like Raul Ibanez stands in front of an FSN camera and politely answers the same questions that he has been asked night-after-night during the late season slide, before moving aside and answering the same questions for the print media.
I thought Ichiro himself definitively put this very issue to rest when he said, “the tomato moth ascends higher than the swallow as the sunrise warms the sea urchin”.
What am I missing?
Really? I thought it was the ice cream and fugu fish one!
#90– ah, but is he The Face of the Franchise because he did that, or did he do that because he is The face of the Franchise?
I would ask who you would consider to be more valuable on the Mariners than Ichiro, but I’m afraid of the answer.
Raul was one of the only players willing to talk to the media, according to Geoff Baker.
I think any hope of informed discussion of Ichiro’s value died when we learned in post 10 that he has trouble hitting the ball out of the infield.
Well, we already knew he has trouble hitting it out of the outfield – only six home runs all year, can’t possibly be an MVP candidate.
From the look on his face, he did it because he is The Face of the Franchise. It was one of the expectations stemming from his contract extension, along with becoming the Mariners Care figurehead and the PR department’s “go to” guy when a comment or quotation is needed from a player’s perspective.
And to be clear, while Ibanez is the Face of the Franchise from a public relations standpoint, Ichiro is still the marketing department’s Face of the Franchise.
I thought the Moose was the Face of the Franchise. Or maybe it’s the Antlers of the Franchise.
For the Moose, I would go with a different body part.
Which is fine. You can designate a Face of the Franchise. And you probably should have one.
But the Mariners keep forgetting that’s a PR/Marketing designation. It’s separate from baseball, on the field considerations.
Besides. There’s nothing stopping the Face of the Franchise from being a DH, instead of a LF, if that’s where he serves the team best. I think there’s an example or two that can show how well that can work out….
Hey…..what about GM of the year?
GM of the year AL – Mark Shapiro, Cleveland
GM of the year NL – Josh Byrnes, Arizona
I would ask who you would consider to be more valuable on the Mariners than Ichiro, but I’m afraid of the answer.
If he’s talking about JJ, I suppose that is a case that one *could* make.
So how do you guy see A-Rod ranking in the pantheon of all-time greats?
105- Near the top, I never bagged a stripper from Canada. Oh, we are talking baseball?? Then not sure till he finishes career.
I like JJ a lot, but I am not convinced that it’s possible for any reliever to be more valuable than the guy who provides so much value on the offensive AND defensive sides of the game.
You could make a pretty good case for JJ at number 2, though.
Has anyone figured out how many home runs Schmidt would have hit in this era? Would he have been a SS?
A-Rod’s season may be better than any of Schmidt’s even with adjustments for bats and ballparks, but maybe not. Schmidt was a more dominant power hitter in his time than A-Rod (and a substantially better defender at the hot corner)
Arod is a fine player to win the MVP but don’t you think the Yankees would still be one of the 4 best teams without him?
Interesting questions bookbook.
Era adjustments are impossible but I will note that Schmidt played when the concentration of talent was higher than it is now. This is mostly due to fewer teams back then. But, an argument could be made that steroids has made the concentration of talent greater now because of the coercive aspect of PEDs. Players, to keep up with the crowd, either had to take them or work harder. These two factors would produce a high quality of competition.
A knock on Braun is that his defense has been pretty dreadful. He had a 3 week stretch where he made 9 errors and has 21 errors on the season. Milwaukee does some odd positioning so it’s tough to gauge his range because Braun certainly SEEMS to be athletic enough with sufficient arm to handle third. But all the metrics indicate that right now he is one if not THE worst defensive third baseman in the NL.
That being written he has done nothing but hit. Braun began the year by slugging over .700 at Triple A and has pretty much kept it up all season. While Milwaukee fans had heard he could hit everyone has been surprised by the magnitude of the guys’s power. Braun has hit some legitimate moonshots including a couple into the second deck in Milwaukee, same in Cincinnati, and the topper was actually his first career home run when he crushed one about 450′ in San Diego. He’s not a dead pull hitter either having lined several balls over the right-centerfield fence at various times.
Braun’s speed has also been something of a pleasant surprise. He’s 14 out of 18 on steals and also has 5 triples.
He does struggle against right-handed pitching slugging “only” .536 against righties. Braun’s slugging percentage against lefties is .941!