More Free Agent Pitcher Badness
At some point soon, as hot stove league talk heats up, you’re going to hear one recurring suggestion from the mainstream media – the Mariners need to acquire a frontline starting pitcher. Generally, they’ll add in even more fun extras such as “no matter what the cost”. The idea is, basically, that if the Mariners are serious about contending, they’ll spend the necessary money to sign a big name free agent pitcher. This is an annual suggestion – we’ve been told that this is the solution to the Mariners problems for years. Considering how poorly the rotation pitched this year, it’s inevitable that the same Sign Big Name Free Agent Pitcher calls will be even louder than normal.
I wonder, though, if they ever consider just how bad a strategy that really is? I’ve written about this issue several times before, but the general consensus remains the same – bring us a big name free agent pitcher.
Well, now that the 2007 season is basically over, we can look back and see just how good of an idea that would have been last winter. There were seven pitchers who signed multiyear contracts in excess of $10 million a year in annual salary – basically, these are the guys who would qualify as the types of pitchers that people want the Mariners to pursue every winter. Should the Mariners have been more aggressive in going after a “top tier” free agent starter last offseason?
Player Tm W L ERA IP Hit K BB HR Lilly CHN 15 7 3.85 187 164 156 51 26 Meche KC 7 12 3.82 188.3 195 132 56 21 Zito SF 9 12 4.46 173.7 156 121 73 21 Padilla TEX 6 9 5.70 115.3 142 69 45 15 Schmidt LAN 1 4 6.31 25.7 32 22 14 4 Mussina NYA 8 10 5.51 127.3 162 77 29 14 Suppan MIL 9 11 4.74 180.3 212 97 58 16 Average 9 10 4.63 163 170 110 52 19
Those seven big name, big dollar, long term contract guys have given their teams, on average, 163 innings with a 4.63 ERA. Average Annual Salary? $12 million per year.
With Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle off the market, this year’s free agent pitching class is going to be even less exciting than last years. When Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, Kenny Rogers, and Freddy Garcia are the best guys available, it’s time to shop elsewhere.
The Mariners rotation needs help, but it won’t be found in free agency.
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I would have signed Ted Lilly.
I would’ve, too. And the M’s tried.
So, which pitchers would you go after, then? Would Tim Hudson be a possibility again? How about A.J. Burnett — would he be available?
Amen…free agency should be for the bench or power hitters…you have to get starting pitching through the draft…period…so unfortunatly for us, the help is a few years away…
2: Highly doubt it. He’s having a good year, and the Braves need the pitching. I highly doubt they’re going to let him go anywhere.
Not only is this list very intuitive, but of the two guys on that list having respectable seasons….Lilly and Meche….how repeatable are they?
so assuming that 1) we don’t sign anyone this winter (although you know bavasi will) and 2) that ramirez and weaver won’t be back, do they get replaced with Baek and Campillo? our staff would be a #1 (KING), a #3 (Batista) and 3 (Wash, Baek, Campillo) #5s…not too good…
Dave, I seem to remember another post you did that showed how all of the teams with the best rotations acquired them almost entirely through the farm or trades when they were minor-leaguers, and not through free agency. If I could figure out what to google for I’d find and link it.
Really, when you consider age age injury risks and that at best the guy is only going to impact one game in five, throwing tens of millions at a FA pitcher seems like the least-effective use of a team’s budget (well, except for throwing tens of milions at a reliever). The trouble is, that’s the only quick fix — and a team on the skids, with a GM who might be sensing the firey tentacles presaging the return of the seat of heat, is looking for exactly that. Even if it doesn’t pan out, it gets attention and sows hope. It’s easy to do a press conference with your new veteran starter in his new jersey talking about how this is going to make all the difference in the coming season. It’s far harder to say “trust us, there are some great kids in the system, it’s going to get better” — especially when they’ve said that in the past and nothing has come of it. And even if the fanbase believes that, they’re likely to say “Fine, I’ll buy tickets again when they get here. See you in a couple of seasons.” And that’s assuming management even likes the idea of adding rookies to the roster, which they clearly don’t.
No, I fear you’re going to see “Jason Jennings, new Seattle Mariner” and read lots of stories about how his $15M a year is at least a better investment than Richie Sexson’s.
(Oh, and while we’re on the topic, can we also mention freely available talent?
David Wells with LAD: 3 games, 17IP, 2-0, 4 BB, 9K, 3.71 ERA, 121 ERA+
Even Esteban Loaiza won a game for them…)
How does Mike Mussina fit into this group — isn’t he at the end of a long, productive contract? The Yankees signed Andy Pettitte last year and he’s 13-8 with a 3.78 ERA.
I agree with your implied premise — that it’s smarter to promote from within , particularly when Gil Meche appears at the top of your list. Still, it seems more a criticism of poor judgment by Mariner’s “Baseball People” and their inability to mine available talent, particularly from domains other than Media anointed “top free agents”.
So… would it make sense then to do something crazy, like trade Jones and/or Wlad and/or Putz (just thinking of the M’s most valuable commodities here) for a top of the line pitching prospect? For example, Jones for Buchholz, Hughes, Gallardo, Kershaw, Lincecum, or Cain? And please don’t tell me why those specific deals won’t work. I’m asking this as a general question.
You know the M’s clubhouse guy is already taking an extra-sized jersey and stitching “C-O-L-O-N” onto the back of it.
You know the M’s clubhouse guy is already taking an extra-sized jersey and stitching “C-O-L-O-N†onto the back of it.
Yep. And Howard Lincoln’s already getting a head start on writing out the check. It takes awhile to write a bazillion zeros, after all…
9 – I don’t think the M’s have the available talent to trade for a “pitching prospect”.
What we should be talking about is the M’s horrid minor league development problems. Other than Felix, they havn’t drafted, developed and held onto a good starting pitcher in years. Why is that nearly every M’s ‘pitching prospect’ goes down with a shoulder or elbow problem? They’re screwed until they get their training issues nailed down.
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When Gil Meche is in the “big-name free agent pitcher pool” in the first place, I’m getting out of the pool and showering vigorously.
So no one here is hot about Carlos Silva if he files for free agency I take it. . .
I here too there is another Japanese pitcher up for post this winter by the name of Saito who is about 30 years old and is always among the top Japanese pitchers every year. Of course, that is a blind bid, mind you. . .
So there are feasible possibilities for the M’s, just not many with Zambrano and Buherle gone.
I think the bigger question may be though, especially if (and when) Bavasi is fired (knock on wood), what will become of Washburn and Batista who have horrid contracts that run for 2 more years each.
Well, we might be a little ways away then. Unless we do a prospect for prospect deal with someone, I think that our rotation of the future is just that, in the future. On the bright side, the current player development group seems to at least have some idea about what they’re supposed to do. Patch and fill, but we might as well do it with Feirabend and Baek and plow money into the lineup (yes, this includes eating Richie’s final year), so that we have a better OBP, more consistent, less annoyingly streaky group of position players!
The only thing I would like about a Bartolo Colon acquisition is that his name is fun to say.
Barrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…tolocolon!
#16: “So that we have a better OBP, more consistent, less annoyingly streaky group of position players!”
Success is merely a Fukudome (minus Sexson) away, my friend.
I would take Lilly’s numbers with a grain of salt. He went from the AL East to the NL Central. He is not a bad pitcher, but not as great as he make initially look as of today. Although a 3:1 K/BB is impressive.
I also become weary of the criticism of Bavasi that he isn’t willing to spend money on FA pitchers. I am glad that Bavasi was outspent on Zito and that Pavano and Schmidt decided to go elsewhere. Imagine how bad the M’s would be if the M’s had both Pavano and Schmidt on the payroll. Yikes. Remember, Oakland has a decent staff, and they spent semi-big bucks on exactly one starter, Loaiza, who is no longer there.
15 – I can live with Wash’s and Batista’s contracts honestly. Let’s face it- free agent pitcher’s contracts are out of control, but that’s the market. If the two of them can put together a league average (95-105) ERA+, that’ll be fine if they’re pitching in the 3,4 or 5 holes. They REALLY need a number 1/2 guy. Let’s face it, Felix really isn’t ready to be a number one. He’s going to be super rad, but he’s still too immature (hell, he’s only 21).
#15 – Washburn’s contract is done after next year, 2008, I believe. Batista will stick around through 2009.
#14 Yet Meche has performed better than most of our pitchers this year. Instead, we’ve got a guy (Ramirez) who makes everyone look like Ty Cobb with his .333 BAA, not to mention the .396 OBP he allows.
#16: “Well, we might be a little ways away then.”
Not exactly.
Next year we are probably going to have R-R Smith, Morrow, and Felix, who all have good solid arms right now to begin with and will only get better over time, in the rotation next year while Weaver and Horacio are as good as gone. The future may not be as far away as you think.
I just think the only way this rotation suffers is there isn’t another reliable 200 inning horse in this rotation besides Felix, and that can really take its toll on a bullpen during the course of a season.
I used ‘Let’s face it’ twice in that last post. Lame.
#21: I thought we signed Washburn for 4 years instead of 3 years. Is there an option I don’t know about?
Agree on Lilly, re: league/park. He’s a flyball guy, too, so who knows what his numbers would have looked like in Seattle with Ibanez and Guillen in the corners. And that 3:1 K:BB, while certainly impressive, is also out of line with the rest of his career (though the K rate has been consistent for some time now).
#23 — I do not think that 2R-S will ever be a rotation guy. If they make Morrow a starter, he will not break camp with the club, as he will need some work in the minors. (I still believe that he will be a reliever for the remainder of his career.) I assume that HoRam will compete for a rotation spot next year with Feierabend, Campillo, Baek and others. Not that I want that to happen, but I assume it will.
23 – I’m not sure it’s an innings problem, it’s that everyone in that rotation is being asked to more than they really can. Felix is number 2 right now, Wash is at BEST a number 3, Batista a 4, Weaver and Ho-Ram…well, they shouldn’t be 4s or 5s. If they get bumped down one spot, that’d help a little.
#14 – nice
Can we stop with the “one day out of five” argument against starting pitchers? That one day is pretty significant, no? Count up plate appearances, or WPA+ – WPA-, or something that actually measure pitcher impact on winning and losing.
#25 — I stand corrected. I had the dollar figure nearly right (37-40 mil), but I thought it was for three years instead of four.
#21 and #25 – Washburn is signed through ’09. God help us all if he stays as the #2.
Actually, I believe the Mariners might well put Morrow in the rotation, but that they won’t send him to the minors to do so. They’re seriously looking at him (and Rowland-Smith) and sending them to winter ball to get used to pitching longer outings.
The list should really include Matsusake as well, who Boston signed for roughly the yearly cost of Weaver plus Vidro. The Mariners didn’t even bid.
If we think that the Ms are willing to spend money on pitching, but FA pitchers are not the direction we should go … is/are there (a) decent pitcher(s) who struggled this year in the “traditional numbers” (ERA, W-L) who has/have a big but not huge contract that someone might be looking to unload? Or that they might trade for a decent but not top-level prospect to reduce salary?
Or should we just assume we are not going to find pitching help from without?
#33- Are we sure they didn’t put a bid in? I never would’ve figured even Boston would pay that.
I can see the Kenny Rogers signing and press conference in my head now, Veteran, Knows “how to pitch”, LHP, great fit, blah, blah.
They said publicly that they weren’t going to bid.
Actually, Rogers might not be a bad fit, if at the right price.
His walk rate this year was pretty much on par with the three previous seasons, and his K rate actually went up a bit. His GB rate was 50%. Strangely enough, he started giving up more HRs once he moved from Texas to Comerica.
If he’s healthy, I’d put him at the top of the FA starting pitcher list. If he’s relatively cheap (2/$14?), I’d take him.
34 – FIP-ERA is a good place to start looking at “traditional numbers” underperformers. Don’t know how available any of the desirables on the top of that list are though.
Rogers has said that he wants to stay in Detroit or retire…
39 – If you expand that list to include both the NL and AL, some interesting names pop up:
Wandy Rodriguez
Matt Belisle
Scott Olson
Olson is probably a long-shot, but Wandy or Belisle might be decent buy-low targets.
Kevin Millwood is a familiar name that kind of jumps out of that list. His salary over the last three years of his contract is $8.5M, $11M, and $12M (voidable if does not reach IP target).
Oops, didn’t realize I filtered by league. Good catch.
Regarding Olson, I guess the thing is you don’t really want a 5.81 ERA / 5.21 FIP guy even if he isn’t really as bad as his ERA suggests
The M’s already have HoRam and Weaver.
Of course, the FA course we take will be determined by who the GM is. All bets are off with Bavasi.
I just read on John Heyman’s column on si.com that Antonetti is the favorite for the Pirates’ open GM spot.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
It seems like the only way to add to the staff may be to trade an established player with some value (Sexson? Not much value there, I’m afraid. Raul? Maybe. At least he’s relatively cheap, but he’s also been designated an M for life. Guillen, assuming the M’s excercise his option and/or sign him to an extension? Maybe, but the clubhouse issues may prevent that. Vidro? Nah.) and some worthwhile prospects (eg. Clement, Balentien) for somebody in the minors who a) isn’t needed by their major league team, and b) is ready for a shot in the bigs and has significant upside. If the M’s had a veteran they could trade this would be the time to do it. It seems pretty rare that anybody pulls off a trade like that, but it’s not unheard of. Billy Beane got Dan Haren, the Braves got John Smoltz, and the M’s got Randy and Freddy that way.
Koji Uehara? Anyone know anything?
So can’t we get a suggestion from Dave that’ll be picked up by Neyer and ignored by the front office? What’s the solution here? Convert Morrow into a starter and watch his (painful) growing pains as he learns to throw something other than gas?
I’m curious what Dave thinks about Ryan R-S at this point. Since he wasn’t generally featured on the Future 40, I’d assume his upside isn’t that great, but he has pitched decently at times. Is there any reason for hope there, or is this another Jake Woods in the making?
Billy Beane got Dan Haren, the Braves got John Smoltz, and the M’s got Randy and Freddy that way.
Yeah, but Haren was for Mulder (when he was still good).
And the other deals were trade deadline deals when the other team was somewhat desperate, KNOWING they were giving up something special.
We have no one of that caliber here.
It’s free agency or something from within.
although, Balentien and something for a live arm out of the Minnesota system seems to make sense from both sides doesn’t it? (especially if the Twins are gonna be losing Hunter)
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48- i personally think they gave up on jake woods way too soon…he is better than both whites, ho-ramirez, parrish, etc. that they sent out night after night…
I’m still entertained by the idea of trading Sexson for Pavano, straight up, albatross for boat anchor. Both only have one year left in their contracts, so there’s no long term risk (though Pavano has a $13M team option for ’09). Neither are producing for their current teams, both might benefit from a change of venue. Sexson costs $3M more in ’08, but at least is able to take the field (depending on what’s really going on with that leg). Pavano had Tommy John surgery sometime earlier this year (May? I think) so he’s not going to be on anybody’s opening day roster next year, but he might be healthy enough to pitch mid-season. TJ can’t make a bad pitcher good, but it might return Pavano to the form that got him signed by the Yankees in the first place. And there is that option for ’09. I don’t know, it’s just swapping one sow’s ear for another with no silk purses in sight, but it’s all sunk money at this point and it’s not like Sexson is going to attract much interest from anybody anyway, so why not?
What I’d like to see happen with Morrow, Rowland-Smith, and Feierabend is to rotate them all through the #5 starter spot, picking and choosing based on matchups and the hot hand. Against a team that hits lefties well, like this year’s Mariners, go with Morrow. For a team that’s weak against lefties, like the M’s not that long ago, use one of the southpaws.
This would keep Morrow’s innings down while making the transition to starting. You’d have one or two guys to fill the long relief role, depending on the plans for the next turn in the rotation. And if capitalizing on matchups possibly produces better numbers, you might boost their value as trade bait (mostly Feierabend, I assume Morrow won’t be traded).
What you do in the M’s situation is go and find a bunch of no-name AAA or AAAA guys who can work 150 innings, keep the walks low, can induce a fair share of groundballs and doesn’t have a track record of getting hit hard. After that, don’t expect much else. Load your org with such cheap no-names, hope a couple of them pan out and powerflush the rest as necessary once your young pitching prospects are ready for AAA.
This isn’t hard and does not require trading your ebst reliever for guys like Ho Ramirez or spending 3/27 on a sorta-average guy like Miguel Batista.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Mariners management brought back Freddy Garcia to “mentor” Felix (who supposedly idolized Garcia).
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#55 — and under what rock do they find this “bunch of no-name AAA or AAAA guys who can work 150 innings, keep the walks low, can induce a fair share of groundballs and doesn’t have a track record of getting hit hard”? Is there some untapped league of such pitchers who heretofore had no way to progress to the major leagues? Perhaps in China, or the California Prison League, or something?
#60–I think they’re all on the Nationals…..
Does anybody know off the top of their head where we are for salary next year? I come up with something like this for players under contract for next year:
Hitters:
Ichiro 17M
Ibanez 5.5M
Vidro 8.5M
Sexson 14M
Lopez .5M
Betancourt 1.25M
Beltre 12M
Johjima 5.2M
Bloomquist .95M
That’s 9 guys at about $65M. If you fill out the roster with Jones, Burke or some other cheap backup catcher, the equivalent of Broussard for $3.5M, and somebody else cheap, you’ve got somewhere around $70M for hitters.
Pitchers under contract for 2008 are:
Washburn $10M
Batista $9M
Felix ??$.5M
Putz $3.4M [man that's a bargain]
Sherrill ??$.5M
and your choice of Baek, Morrow, Feierabend, RRS, Campillo, etc. who are all less than $.5M
meaning about $25M for pitchers.
So they’re at about $95M and need someone to replace the useless shell of Richie Sexson and a bench bat or two at least from the offensive side (and I figured $3.5M for the bench bat). I don’t rule out the possibility that Raul could man 1B if he worked at it all winter.
The payroll was $106M on opening day this year, which included pro-rated signing bonuses and I don’t know how much that was. If they resign Guillen, they’re not going to have all that much left for a starting pitcher unless they can get someone to take on one of their useless big contracts (Sexson or Vidro). If they can, they will have some money to spend which might be too much of a temptation for Bavasi to resist.
Since it looks like the FA market for pitching is pretty much bare, any pitchers you guys think might be on the trade market? Such as Zambrano, or Johan Santana?
61- we already have them in woods, baek, campillo, etc….the problem is that instead of going with these guys to fill out the roster, they traded away soriano and gave weaver WAY too much…maybe they learned their lesson…lol…
Dave,
I agree with the principle of the post. I don’t think our answer is going to be found on the free agent market. I assume you are advocating for a promotion and trade approach to fill our needs. I suspect you’ll have a more comprehensive post to address it in the off-season, but which trades seem like promising ones out there for which we have the pieces to pursue?
I expect the M’s feel very comfortable with the following guys:
1. Felix
2. Washburn
3. Batista
So my guess is we are looking for a true #2 starter (or even a #1 guy) and somebody to fill out the back of the rotation – something I’d argue Washburn can already do for us, but I digress. If we are looking for solid #5′s I am in favor of finding a real bargain in an undervalued guy or going with a AAAA guy. I don’t think Morrow will be ready to step in for the beginning of the season to fill the other need, so who is our #1.5 – 2 starter target via trade?
#63. I am a Cubs fan too, and there is no way the Cubs will trade Zambrano after just signing him to a new contract. It’d be like Mariners are trading Ichiro after he signed in August.
#53. I don’t think Pavano will pitch next year at all. His timeline is that he could be back by August next year, but I doubt there will be a rotation spot for him in NYY at that time. Wang, Pettitte, Huges, Joba and Mussina are still there, with Ian Kennedy also factored into their rotation.
But how about Sexson for another NY disappointment this year? I am talking about Carlos Delgado. Delgado was the M’s first choice when they signed Sexson 3 years ago, because he was LH. Carlos would be a perfect fit in Safeco. I don’t think Sexson alone is going to do it. But how about packaging Sexson and Clement or Sexson and Balentien for Delgado? You have your LH power hitter then, and you can let Jose Guillen go to open up a spot for Jones.
Is there any statement by the M’s regarding 2R-S as a potential starter. I remember rumblings about the M’s sending Morrow to winter ball, so that has some legs, unfortunately. Personally, I do not see 2R-S as a starter. He screams reliever to me, figuratively speaking. He doesn’t actually lead loud messages on my voice mail where he shouts out the word “Reliever” over the phone.
67- go to the team’s site…there is a story on him being in the mix…
66- if you are trading sexson, why go for delgado? that guy is done…trade richie for pitching and put ibanez at first…or broussard…
As a Mets fan as well, do not trade for Carlos Delgado!!! He is running around out there with the proverbial fork sticking out of his back. Basically, ‘he’s gotten old’…lost bat speed.
68- What sort of pitching do you expect from a Sexson trade?
The Mariners are pretty much going to have to gamble on 5th starters, AAAA guys, failed prospects, guys coming off injuries, and veterans who might have a year or two left to fill out the rotation. There’s not a #1 or #2 (or even a #3) starter in the free agent market and acquiring one via trade means parting with Jones, which isn’t going to happen. It’s throw a bunch of crap at the wall and hope something sticks.
And then they look to upgrade the offense and defense and try to outscore people and make it a 7-inning game.
Does anybody think it’s worth bringing back Jeff Weaver for another year, and if so on what terms?
#68 — Thanks.
#72 — No.
well, detoit wanted him a few weeks ago, but the FO pulled the deal…
I think expecting to get anything “in return” for Sexson is a pipe-dream. You’d be lucky to find anybody who will even take a significant part of his salary. The M’s will be paying Sexson something next year, even if it’s to pay him a good chunk of that 14mill to play somewhere else. I’m actually fine with that if we can free up even a few million and get the “give him every chance” monkey off of our backs that needlessly causes us to run out an inferior first baseman game after game after game. If, by some miracle, we get a player in return, it’s nobody we are going to get excited about.
#71 – I don’t think a trade for a front-line starter necessarily requires Jones, though Wlad and some other valuable prospects/perhaps every day guys will be required, and I just don’t know where we’d go shopping to be honest.
Given the news that Twins GM Ryan is resigning, possibility for a trade for Santana? The R-L Venezuelan superstars combo, M’s have the money to pay Johan, new Twins GM may want to make a splash and do so by getting a bunch of great prospects rather than paying Johan $200 Million… Dave has already speculated that Twins might like to get Wlad…
I thought Bavasi’s one and only ability was to stockpile the system. I guess it’s not.
If I were Bavasi I would figure out who Shapiro like and outbid him.
Delgado with his lost of bat speed is still way better than Sexson. The point isn’t whether Delgado can regain his bat speed. The point is who’s a better bet to perform better in 2008, Sexson or Delgado? I simply place my bet on Delgado. This is a case where you trade one year of a bad contract for another one year of a bad contract. Delgado isn’t a long term solution beyond 2008. But in 2008, he’s a better option than Sexson, fits into this ball park better than Sexson and fits into this offense better than Sexson being LH.
77. It’s going to take a lot to get Johan. I am sure Jones must be included, since he’s the perfect guy to replace Hunter. If Mark Teixiera cost the top 3 prospects in the Braves farm system, then the starting point to aquire Santana will be Jones, Triunfel, Tillman and Morrow. Is that something the M’s will be willing to pay? Frankly, if the M’s can sign Johan to a 7 year 175M contract, I am not sure I wouldn’t do that deal. But I wouldn’t want to give up that much for 1 year of Santana.
broussard and ibanez are better options than delgado…
xFIP has Felix at #2 in the AL.
He’s also #2 in GB% while still being a good strikeout guy.
Why do you guys not think he’ll be great in ’08?
He’s a guy to build a team around, and he’s only 21.
The thought of adding Santana to the rotation makes me salivate, even at the expense of Wlad and maybe other prospects.
Johan would indeed have some totally SICK numbers in safeco, wouldn’t he?
having johan would put the team in the playoffs…but it’s not going to happen…
Who would have thought that we’d miss Gil Meche? Even Pineiro could have helped this year; although I’m a believer in ‘Change-of-Scenery’ as good for certain types of guys.
The Ms have said that RRS will pitch the first half of the Venezuelan season, and Morrow will pitch the other
“broussard and ibanez are better options than delgado…”
And Clement.
I thought Bavasi’s one and only ability was to stockpile the system.
I’m no Bavasi fan, but Bavasi, Fontaine, and Engel have turned the M’s minor league system from one of the worst to one solidly in the top half. There is a good core of high-upside starting prospects (Morrow, Tillman, Butler, Ramirez, Aumont), plus a few guys like Justin Thomas who could turn into decent end-of-rotation starters. But developing pitchers does not happen overnight. Even with the M’s aggressive approach, it can still take three or more years.
I agree, especially given those two big-time busts…Denny Neagle and that former Mariner??. My question is this. Since ERA and WHIP is not a good way to evaluate pitchers, would evaluating those seven using some more sophisticated measures make them look better? Wins and ERA do depend a lot upon the team, after all.
A couple of points:
First, the bottom line of the list above will most likely look worse each year post-signing which really underscores why pursuing free agent pitchers is a poor approach.
Shouldn’t Dice K be on the list?
Also, Mussina was really only a two year deal and his contract would really not fit the typical contract situation with FA arms that many often preach against (i.e. greater than 3 yrs).
Andy Pettitte might have been the best FA arm signing of the year and the criteria eliminates him from the discussion.
Roger Clemens is so unique he’s probably not worth discussing.
The thought of adding Santana to the rotation makes me salivate, even at the expense of Wlad and maybe other prospects.
That “maybe” is hilarious. Let’s see, the Twins are going to give up one year of the best pitcher in the league for one minor league outfielder and maybe something else? You slay me. How about this: Jones and Felix. Seriously. If I was the Twins, that’s what I’d ask for. That way they can replace Hunter and plug the hole in their rotation. (Heck, I might ask for more — they don’t really need Clement or Wlad but they might ask for them too just so they can flip them in another trade). And believe me, it’s not an unreasonable request because you know they’re going to be getting a phone call from almost every other team — especially the ones who have the resources to lock Santana up before he hits free agency. What do you think the Yankees are going to be offering? I’ll tell you one this: it’s a lot more than Wladimir Balentien and maybe other prospects.
we are not getting santana…we’d have to give up the farm…not gonna happen…move on to another topic worth discussing…
So then where do you think we could get some pitching? How much are we really going to get for Wlad and Clemmy?
Speaking of pitching and how to acquire it. I don’t remember a guy from the M’s minor leagues this year that went down with major arm surgery. Just a year ago USS Mariner did the big article about attrition didn’t they?
Perhaps they’re not so unlucky or bad any more at it?
Wait till the regression to the mean…
Shouldn’t Dice K be on the list?
Matsuzaka will make an average of $8.6 million per year over the course of his contract. Dave’s list is of pitchers who are making $10 million a year or more.
Now if you factor in the posting fee paid to his former team, that obviously changes, but that’s not technically part of the contract.
It’s a bit of hair splitting to suggest the posting fee shouldn’t count toward the cost of Matsuzaka isn’t it?
Really its not the signing of a big name pitcher that is the issue. Dice K, Pettitte, Clemens, even Mussina arguably could be classified as positive moves. Why? Because those deals largely manage risk well. It’s the >4 year deals for insane money to pitchers approaching their decline years that really are the issue. Even then, if Johan Santana was a FA after this year, a five year deal would probably be a nobrainer.
Geez, how bad is that FA class without Lilly’s and Meche’s numbers figured in?
I agree the M’s will have to turn to other avenues of aquiring SP help this offseason other than MLB FA.
Those avenues are:
Trade:For the right OF help the Twins may part with P Scott Baker(Maybe a straight up deal Balentien for Baker).
Try and work prospect deal for Sexson even with a partial pick up of salary by the M’s.
See the trade price for Harang of the Reds or Bedard of Baltimore.
IN House:
Serious look at Ryan Roland-Smith,Ryan Freierabend,Brandon Morrow,Baek,and Eric O’Flaherty as possible replacement for either Weaver and/or Ramirez in the #4 and 5 slots in the rotation.
The M’s have to start finding to a much larger extent their players from within or why bother maintaining a minor leagues system.
The M’s must start turning to Japanese league FA to aquire needed talent if all other venues fail and the M’s must also consider being a bit more pushy in the bidding wars for Japanese talent of need.
I doubt the Ms could break into the Japanese market for players.
The O’s aren’t going to trade Bedard.
Realistic trade options are more of the Scott Baker ilk. Potential #3′s are out there and can probably be pried away for talent (Clement+ or something).
Potential Cy Young award winners – no one’s going to trade them for anything the M’s would/should pay.